Just one week ago, China seemingly couldn't get enough of gold, and the price of spot briefly touched a record $3500 as a result of, among other things, staggering inflows into Chinese gold ETFs such as the Huaan Yifu, Bosera and Guotai gold ETFs.

But, as with all things momentum-based in China, it's easy come, easy go in the land of Dragons, and as Goldman commodity trader Adam Gillard writes, China liquidated what it bought last week ahead of the Labor Day holiday, resulting in total onshore positioning now 5% off the ATH. And while China’s share of total open interest remains on the highs at ~40%, upward momentum may have peaked for the time being.

Here is the story of Chinese gold buying... and then selling, in five charts.

Last Tuesday (22nd April) gold made an ATH as China added 1.2mn oz of positioning across SGE and SHFE, on record volume....

... so fast forward to today, when China liquidated a near-record 1mn oz across SHFE and SGE, reversing the entire April 22 blow-off top.

... although the ETF was largely unchanged

... Resulting in total Chinese positioning now ~5% off the ATH .

And the paper (spec) import arbitrage ~$20/oz off the highs

According to Gillard, who confirms our recent observation that all recent price moves take place exclusively around the time China opens...

China opens and gold soars to new record high https://t.co/z61bLLj4Y9 pic.twitter.com/bwLH49On8X

... China is having a disproportionate impact on price because they execute during an illiquid part of the day (Asia morning) which likely triggers ex China CTA trading signals. Sure enough, gold is dumping in early Asian trading to the lowest level in 2 weeks.

More int the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

Authored by Autumn Spredemann via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Mexico’s delinquent water deliveries, in violation of an 81-year-old treaty with the United States, have exposed years of “blind eye” policies, rapid population growth, and hydrological changes, according to an expert at the U.S. Army War College.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

Evan Ellis, research professor of Latin American studies at the college’s Strategic Studies Institute, told The Epoch Times that recent tensions over Mexico’s delinquent water deliveries have come from “years of looking the other way” on the part of the United States.

U.S. President Donald Trump has requested that the United States’ southern neighbor honor its obligation to deliver 1.3 million acre-feet of water to Texas. The amount totals almost 70 percent of a five-year water commitment that’s due in October.

“Just last month, I halted water shipments to Tijuana until Mexico complies with the 1944 Water Treaty,” Trump wrote in an April 10 post on his social media platform, Truth Social.

Under the reciprocal agreement, Mexico is expected to send the United States 1.75 million acre-feet of water over a five-year cycle. That’s an average of 350,000 acre-feet of water each year. The water deliveries primarily come from six tributaries of the Rio Grande, and are stored in the Amistad and Falcon international reservoirs along the river.

One acre-foot of water—one acre of water at a depth of one foot—is roughly enough to fill half of an Olympic-size swimming pool. Mexico’s average annual obligation is enough water to supply 700,000 to 1 million Texas households for a year.

In exchange, the United States agreed to provide Mexico with 1.5 million acre-feet of water from the Colorado River each year—differing from Mexico’s five-year cycle.

The Tijuana shipments that Trump said were halted were part of a non-treaty water request from Mexico.

The U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Western Hemisphere affairs said the United States denied such a request for the first time since the treaty was signed because of Mexico’s noncompliance with its water obligations.

“Mexico’s continued shortfalls in its water deliveries under the 1944 water-sharing treaty are decimating American agriculture—particularly farmers in the Rio Grande valley,” the State Department wrote in a statement on social media platform X on March 20.

According to the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC), which handles issues related to the 1944 treaty, Mexico has failed to meet its five-year delivery obligations three times since 1992. Each of those debts was carried over to the following cycle and ultimately paid.

Mexico also fell short in average minimum annual deliveries within the 2002–2007 and the 2015–2020 cycles. Those shortfalls were met very close to the end of the cycles—in 2020, within just three days of the deadline.

Although the deliveries were ultimately fulfilled, the unpredictable nature of water deliveries from the Rio Grande has impacted water users on both sides of the border.

The current cycle for both countries ends in October, but according to IBWC data, by March 29, just 28 percent—or less than 500,000 acre-feet of water—of Mexico’s water obligation had been delivered.

A water delivery truck loads water for sale in Tijuana, Mexico, on March 24, 2025. On March 20, the United States announced it denied Mexico’s request for Colorado River water, pressuring the country to meet its obligation to deliver 1.3 million acre-feet of water to Texas under the 1944 Water Treaty. Guillermo Arias/AFP via Getty Images

In response to a query about how much of the United States’ water commitment to Mexico has been met, IBWC public affairs chief Frank Fisher cited an agency graph showing that the United States had met about half of its 2025 commitment as of April 19.

In November 2024, the two countries agreed to a treaty amendment that would give Mexico more ways to meet its water obligation. Those options include providing water from the San Juan and Alamo rivers, which are not part of the Rio Grande tributaries specified in the treaty. The agreement also set up a working group to explore other sources of water.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said at a news conference on April 11, the day after Trump’s social media post announcing a delivery stoppage, that she expected an agreement in the coming days “that will allow the treaty to be fulfilled.” She called the treaty “fair.”

Sheinbaum told reporters that there would be “an immediate delivery of a certain number of millions of cubic meters that can be provided according to the water availability in the Rio Grande.”

In response to a query about whether Mexico had made that delivery, the State Department confirmed that Mexico had committed to making an immediate transfer of water, but it did not confirm that the delivery had been made.

The State Department stated on April 28 that the two countries had committed to developing “a long-term plan to reliably meet treaty requirements while addressing outstanding water debts—including through additional monthly transfers and regular consultations on water deliveries that take into consideration the needs of Texas users.”

Sheinbaum has blamed her country’s increasingly delinquent water shipments on extended periods of drought that have affected the Rio Grande.

“Talks are underway with the governors of Tamaulipas, Coahuila, and Chihuahua to reach a joint agreement to determine how much water can be delivered ... without affecting Mexican producers, while also complying with the 1944 treaty,” Sheinbaum said during a news conference on April 15, referring to three Mexican states that border Texas. The Rio Grande serves as the international boundary.

Historically, Mexican farmers have contested attempts to increase water deliveries to the United States for fear of losing their crops.

In September 2020—before an October delivery deadline—farmers in Mexico’s Chihuahua state, which borders New Mexico and Texas, were involved in heated protests over government attempts to deliver 378 cubic meters of water to the United States, claiming that their livelihoods were at stake amid severe drought conditions. One protester was killed in clashes with the Mexican National Guard.

Sculptures stand along the international boundary at Amistad Reservoir on the U.S.–Mexico border near Ciudad Acuña, Mexico, on Feb. 21, 2017. Guillermo Arias/AFP via Getty Images

Downstream Dilemma

Maria-Elena Giner, then-commissioner of the IBWC’s U.S. division, told The Epoch Times on April 18 that the division is “in close contact with the administration regarding the need for Mexico to commit to predictable and reliable Rio Grande water deliveries.”

“We have continued to request that Mexico make monthly deliveries and provide a specific plan outlining how they intend to make up their historic shortfall in the next five-year cycle,” Giner said.

“At the same time, we are doing everything we can to assist impacted south Texas stakeholders, including alerting growers and irrigation districts about available federal and local resources and sharing our historical data on Rio Grande hydrology.”

Giner, a Biden appointee, resigned on April 21. She will be succeeded by William “Chad” McIntosh, who previously served as acting deputy administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency under administrator Lee Zeldin.

The 1944 water agreement between the United States and Mexico was struck at a time when groundwater was abundant, and droughts weren’t as lengthy. Both nations agreed to share water from two rivers that help define the international border: the Colorado River and the Rio Grande.

Like the Rio Grande in Mexico, the Colorado River in the United States has faced extreme drought in recent years.

Since 2000, the Colorado River, which originates in the Rockies and joins Mexico at the California–Arizona border, has experienced a “historic, extended drought” that has taken a heavy toll on regional water supplies.

At the same time, population and agricultural growth in Colorado River Basin states have grown exponentially over the two decade period.

Currently, the Colorado River Basin provides water to an estimated 40 million residents in seven U.S. states and irrigates more than 5 million acres of farmland.

Read the rest here...

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) administrator Lee Zeldin unveiled 100 actions the agency has undertaken since Trump's inauguration to "power the American comeback."

"The Trump Administration’s first one hundred days have been historic. The American public made themselves heard last November, and we are delivering on this mandate. Promises made, promises kept. At EPA, we are doing our part to Power the Great American Comeback. To mark this momentous day, we are proudly highlighting 100 environmental actions we have taken since January 20th to protect human health and the environment," Zeldin said in a video post reported by Breitbart.

To mark the 100th day of President Trump’s second term, @EPA is proudly highlighting 100 environmental actions we have taken since January 20th to protect human health and the environment.

Clean air, land, and water for ALL Americans! pic.twitter.com/CdTX1w6bJZ

The EPA was established by President Richard Nixon in 1970, tasking the agency with two missions; promoting clear air and water, and reducing pollution from waste disposal and other hazards. According to Zeldin, the agency has refocused on its primary mission of ensuring clean air and water instead of pushing "climate change religion."

"Here are a few top highlights: To protect our nation’s waters, we updated water quality standards for 38 miles of the Delaware River to protect critical fish species and keep the river clean. We approved a plan to further restore and protect the Long Island Sound over the next decade. We also developed a method to detect 40 different PFAS in surface water, ground water and wastewater," Zeldin said, adding "Our team completed one of three in-water cleanups at the Lower Duwamish Waterway Superfund Site and revised the 2025 Idaho Water Quality Performance Partnership with the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality. To ensure clean air for all Americans, we demanded answers from an unregulated geoengineering start-up, Make Sunsets, that has been launching sulfur dioxide into the air to receive ‘cooling credits.'"

According to Taylor Rogers, an assistant White House press secretary, the Trump administration and Zeldin have "taken monumental steps to quickly remove toxins from our water and environment, provide clean land for Americans, and use common-sense policies to Power the Great American Comeback."

Here are the 100 actions the EPA has undertaken via Breitbart;

1. Issued immediate action items for Mexico to permanently end the Tijuana River sewage crisis.

2. Responded quickly to a citizen complaint about discharges into New York’s Hutchinson River; inspected and ordered corrective action.

3. Developed a Clean Water Act permit for hotels, condominiums, and apartment complexes to protect water quality in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

4. Finalized Arkansas 2022 Section 303(d) list assessing statewide water quality.

5. Approved Kansas Triennial Water Quality Standards Package.

6. Approved Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) plan in South Dakota to protect Big Sioux River quality from E. coli.

7. Announced plans to finalize outdated clean water standards for 38 miles of the Delaware River.

8. Approved removal of the Drinking Water Beneficial Use Impairment in Wisconsin’s Green Bay and Fox River Area of Concern.

9. Advanced Navajo Nation’s first in the country water permitting (“Treatment as a State”) authority.

10. Completed Phase 1 hazardous materials clean up after the catastrophic Los Angeles wildfires. EPA cleared 13,612 residential properties and 305 commercial properties, and removed 645 electric and hybrid vehicles and 420 energy storage systems in under 30 days.

11. Supported redevelopment at 21 Superfund sites across 13 states.

12. Completed a contaminated site cleanup in Hillsborough, New Hampshire, and Stratford, Connecticut.

13. Oversaw U.S. Navy’s time-critical removal of 20,000 cubic yards of contaminated soil at the Naval Education Training Center Superfund Site in Newport, Rhode Island.

14. Cleared all or a portion of 4 sites from the Superfund National Priorities List.

15. Cut two years from the cleanup timeline at West Lake Landfill, a Superfund site in St. Louis, Missouri.

16. Completed 55 property cleanups at Region 8 Brownfields. This is 31% of the national goal and 131% of Region 8’s Fiscal Year 2025 goal.

17. Completed laboratory work required for selecting a remedy at Lower Darby Creek Area Superfund Site in Pennsylvania. EPA collected 1500 sediment and water samples.

18. Responded to a mercury incident in Fremont, Ohio; safely removed and disposed of a 60-pound overpack and 15-pound bucket containing jars of elemental mercury and mercury containing devices.

19. Provided air monitoring support at the Chicago Magnesium Casting Co. after a large magnesium fire.

20. Completed Emergency Removal Action at the Marion Ohio Mercury Spill site in Ohio.

21. Oversaw Navy cleanup operations at Red Hill Fuel Facility in Hawaii, including removal of all sludge and pressure washing at two 12.5 million-gallon tanks.

22. Developed a method to detect 40 PFAS compounds in water sources.

23. Finalized eight Water Quality Standard Actions for Region 6 states.

24. Completed a second round of PFAS sampling at Region 7 Tribal Drinking Water Systems.

25. Provided interim PFAS lab certification for Alaska’s Department of Environmental Conservation (ADEC).

26. Signed an agreement to connect Joint Base Lewis-McChord residences to municipal water system if PFAS exceeds standards.

27. Started Final Remedial Actions for Jackson Ceramix Superfund in Falls Creek Borough, Pennsylvania, with construction to begin in the Spring of 2025.

28. Provided training to help New Mexico administer the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System, a permit program established by EPA under the Clean Water Act to regulate water pollution by controlling point sources that discharge pollutants into U.S. waters.

29. Coordinated PFAS drinking water well sampling around Fort Bragg, North Carolina.

30. Utilized EPA lab Method 522 to test tribal drinking water systems for PFAS; performed 62 analyses.

31. Completed lead testing assistance (3T’s Protocol) for Puerto Rico schools and childcare facilities.

32. Reviewed 29 public water systems that had lead action level exceedance notifications in Region 4.

33. Completed 25 State Implementation Plans allowing environmental requirements to go into effect faster, 16 of which were backlogged from the previous Administration.

34. Finalized air quality rulemaking in the Washington D.C. Area ensuring ozone compliance.

35. Conducted ambient air monitoring technical system audits (TSAs) across Region 9.

36. Upgraded the RadNet monitoring station in Edison, New Jersey, to detect airborne radioactivity.

37. Awarded $165,000 to San Diego Air Pollution Control District for air filters and $1.26M for hydrogen sulfide monitoring to address air quality at the border and concerns with sulfur odors from Tijuana River sewage.

38. Promoted clean air quality compliance for new chip manufacturing projects in Phoenix, Arizona.

39. 27 Brownfields sites were made Ready for Anticipated Use, boosting property values and economic opportunities in Hartshorne, Oklahoma, Minden, Louisiana, West Memphis, Arkansas, and more.

40. Completed 107 assessments of Brownfield properties in Region 7, which is 82% of their Fiscal Year 2025 goal.

41. Achieved 21 contaminated Brownfield redevelopment successes in Region 9.

42. Held a Superfund Job Training at Missouri’s Ozark Correctional Center.

43. Completed review of 81 New Chemicals to ensure they are safe for human health and the environment.

44. Conducted a safety review of 14 pesticides to set tolerances to support a safe and reliable food supply.

45. Approved 48 pesticides to provide growers with necessary tools while ensuring appropriate restrictions were imposed to protect human health, the environment, and endangered species.

46. Proposed 35 significant new use rules (SNURs) for chemical oversight to ensure chemicals do not pose an unreasonable risk to human health or the environment.

47. Led a Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) Week-In-Residence Enforcement Training event for newly hired state inspectors to equip new inspectors with the knowledge necessary to uphold consistent inspection standards.

48. Blocked illegal pesticide imports totaling over 200,000 pounds across multiple regions.

49. Announced approval of Texas’s clean-air plan to address vehicle emissions and improve air quality in the San Antonio area.

50. Issued amended PCB risk-based disposal approvals to expedite repairs at public schools.

51. Led a Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) State Authorization Conference to strengthen the hazardous waste program across all states.

52. Sent mobile drinking water lab to flood-impacted Eastern Kentucky.

53. Cleared more than 1,700 orphan containers of oil, propane, and other hazardous materials from land and waterways around the French Broad River after Hurricane Helene.

54. Tested over 1,500 private wells in North Carolina’s Buncombe and Watauga counties.

55. Assisted in restoring drinking water service to 150,000 people in North Carolina.

56. Concluded 297 enforcement cases reducing 15 million pounds of pollution.

57. Superfund enforcement secured $296 million worth of cleanups addressing more than 700,000 cubic yards of contamination.

58. Completed cleanup at Metals Refining Co. hazardous waste site in Indiana after discovering thirty-two, 55-gallon drums most of which were damaged and some leaking and an additional 200 to 300 miscellaneous containers of hazardous waste.

59. Removed approximately 10,000 tons of soil and debris contaminated with asbestos containing material from an unsecured 10-acre property in Indiana.

60. Collaborated to replace lead-contaminated soil at Atlanta’s Lindsay Street Park.

61. Analyzed children’s blood lead data to improve South Dakota lead prevention efforts.

62. Supported tribal waste management programs with multiple trainings to address dangerous materials like refrigerants, mercury switches, PCBs, and petroleum components.

63. Conducted 6,000 1-on-1 engagements with communities impacted by fires.

64. Held 104 public meetings or community events for fire response updates.

65. Provided training, guidance, and support to monitor and cleanup Underground Storage Tanks on Navajo Nation lands.

66. Started cleanup of radium-contaminated soil at the Silbert Watch Co. Superfund Site in Elgin, Illinois.

67. Developed EPA Method TO-15 to analyze 65 toxic Volatile Organic Compounds in indoor and outdoor air in support of Superfund and Clean Air Act.

68. Supported Los Alamos National Lab in transporting hazardous tritium containers for cleanup.

69. Conducted lead contamination studies at the Bunker Hill Superfund site.

70. Completed the review of the Houston area Ozone Exceptional that allows the state to proceed with their Air Program planning and implementation.

71. Worked with U.S. Customs to stop illegal pesticide imports at multiple ports.

72. Blocked over 56,000 pounds of unregistered pesticide products from entering through Region 4 ports.

73. Provided technical assistance support to communities at 31 Superfund sites across the country.

74. Cleanup of the HPI Chemical Products in Missouri, where thousands of containers of pesticide and herbicide containing hazardous substances, pollutants, and contaminants were housed.

75. Began a Remedial Investigation of the Historic Potteries site in Trenton, New Jersey.

76. Completed 7 property cleanups in Brownfields in the First 100 Days in Region 7.

77. Approved updated Comprehensive Conservation & Management plan for the Long Island Sound Partnership, to further restore and protect the Sound.

78. Initiated sediment removal projects at the Lower Duwamish Waterway Superfund Site removing approximately 13,700 cubic yards of contaminated sediment.

79. Oversaw cleanups at tribal and local jurisdictions under CERCLA and Clean Water Act.

80. Supported redevelopment at the Mississippi Phosphate Superfund site with a new treatment plant.

81. Completed analysis for wood treating contaminants at 181 residential properties around the Union Pacific Railroad Superfund site in Houston, Texas, with seventy four percent found to be safe for use.

82. Managed post-disaster hazardous materials spills in Ohio and North Carolina.

83. Inspected and mitigated vapor intrusion impacting Los Angeles from a former Superfund site.

84. Obtained court settlement for cleanup work at the San Fernando Valley Superfund Site located in North Hollywood-Burbank to restore a critical drinking water supply for the city of Los Angeles.

85. Responded to hydraulic oil spill into a creek in Whitehouse, Ohio.

86. Supported voluntary cleanups under consent decrees.

87. Began a removal action in Dartmouth, Massachusetts, to excavate and dispose of contaminated soil at three residential properties as part of a larger ongoing cleanup effort.

88. Approved eight plans for cleanup and disposal of toxic Polychlorinated Biphenyl (PCB) materials to facilitate reuse and economic development across properties in New England.

89. Finalized Native Green Grow Air Permit for large greenhouse facility in North Dakota, providing the Tribe with food security.

90. Advanced Native American environmental oversight efforts.

91. Granted a Water Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act (WIFIA) loan to Weber Basin Water Conservancy District, for drinking water infrastructure to over 20% of Utah’s population while creating local jobs to support the projects.

92. Supported grant programs to monitor and clean up abandoned USTs.

93. Provided federal funds to conduct Highway 24 lead and arsenic clean up in Colorado.

94. Helped prevent spread of hazardous materials from warehouse fires including sulfuric acid, nitric acid, hydrochloric acid, sodium hypochlorite, potassium cyanide, sodium cyanide, and lead.

95. Collaborated with fire rescue teams in North Carolina to retrieve containers from flooded rivers.

96. Provided technical guidance to local water operators, supporting efforts to restore and maintain drinking water systems and other essential services during Hurricane Helene Recovery efforts.

97. Completed all residential soil and indoor dust cleanup at the Colorado Smelter Superfund site.

98. Completed the 5-Year Review for Puerto Rico’s Corozal Superfund Site, paving the way for its deletion from the CERCLA Superfund National Priority List.

99. Submitted a demand for information to a start-up company called “Make Sunsets,” which is launching balloons filled with sulfur dioxide (SO2) seeking to geoengineer the planet and generate “cooling” credits to sell.

100. Announced major actions to combat PFAS contamination.

Authored by Rachel Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) is warning of a workless “lost generation,” caused partly by the number of young people suffering from poor mental health.

A man wearing a mask walks past a mural painted as part of the Cities of Hope festival in 2016 and highlighting the effects of mental health, in Ancoats, northern Manchester, England, on Oct. 16, 2020.Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images

The body is calling for immediate government action which it says is needed to help young people from generation Z, generally defined as those born between 1997–2012, to enter the workplace or education.

Its report, “Creating Job Opportunities for Gen Z,” released on Monday, follows research published last week which found the number of young people claiming benefits owing to poor mental health or neurodiverse conditions such as autism and ADHD was not economically “sustainable.”

‘Double Whammy’

Shevaun Haviland, director general of the BCC, said:   “The UK’s active workforce is rapidly ageing, while the number of young people who are not in employment, education or training is at its highest level for a decade.

“Generation Z face a double whammy of increasing barriers to entering the workforce, and reducing opportunities as the number of vacancies continues to fall.

“But research shows the longer we leave this pool of talent to drift away from the workplace the harder it becomes for them to engage.”

The BCC, which represents a large number of smaller businesses, is calling on the government to spend more on mental health support and further education and for a more “collaborative approach” across the various Whitehall departments.

‘Rise of Anxiety’

Last week’s report from the Tony Blair Institute (TBI) pointed to soaring numbers of people reporting poor mental health and claiming benefits since the COVID-19 lockdown era.

“One clear trend is the rise of anxiety particularly since the COVID-19 pandemic. Data from the Annual Population Survey show that prior to the pandemic, self-reported levels of anxiety in the population were relatively stable. Since 2019, however, the number of people reporting high levels of anxiety has surged and remained high, with 23 per cent of working-age adults reporting ‘poor anxiety’ in 2023,” authors for the former prime minister’s organisation wrote.

Mental health conditions are now the most commonly reason cited by people across all age groups who are out of work owing to long-term sickness, the report by the TBI notes.

“The reasons behind this shift remain unclear. It may reflect a rise in true prevalence, but other factors could also be at play – such as distorted financial incentives within the system, overdiagnosis or changing public attitudes and awareness around mental health.

“Whatever the cause, one thing is clear: the current trajectory is unsustainable,” the authors concluded.

The study highlights a 168 percent reported increase in depression, anxiety, and stress among those aged 16–24 in the two decades ending in 2019, with a 42 percent rise seen across all age groups.

It also notes a doubling in the prescribing of ADHD medication since 2018–2019, with the younger age group the main driver behind this increase.

Surging Benefits Bill

Claims for mental health conditions have fuelled a nationwide surge in benefits payments since the lockdown era, with an estimated 25 percent in income tax predicted to be used to fund sickness benefits by the end of this decade, unless the trajectory changes.

An estimated 13.4 percent of all young people aged 16 to 24 were classed as NEET (“not in education, employment, or training”) in October to December 2024, an increase of 1.3 percent compared with October to December 2023, according to the latest release from the Office for National Statistics.

The precise figures are not reliable, because they are based on the statistics agency’s labour market survey, which is hampered by low response rates, especially for younger age groups.

Signage for the Department of Work and Pensions in Westminster, London, in an undated file photo. PA

Research by The King’s Trust, carried out in 2022, shows that one in four classed as NEETs said they would like to work but cannot, owing to their poor mental health, with “lack of confidence” also cited as a major barrier to entering the workforce by 23 percent of young people.

Almost half (46 percent) of those surveyed told The King’s Trust researchers they have additional mental health issues or caring responsibilities owing to the lockdown era which meant they were out of work.

More than half (52 percent), said the longer they were unemployed, the harder they were finding it to get work, while 45 percent said being out of work meant they had lost confidence in their skills.

Youth Guarantee Scheme

Last month, the government announced a series of welfare reforms, including sweeping cuts to disability benefits and an expansion of so-called “back-to-work support,” which it said will help young people diagnosed with mental health problems to enter the workforce.

The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) announced a Youth Guarantee Scheme in November, aimed at giving all 18- to 21-year-olds access to training, an apprenticeship, or support to find work, as part of a broader strategy aimed at tackling worklessness and ill health in the wider population.

Releasing its white paper, the DWP said: “Stark figures show almost one and a half million people are unemployed, over nine million people are inactive [and] a record 2.8 million people are out of work due to long-term sickness.

“Young people have also been left behind with one in eight young people not in education, employment or training, and nine million adults lack the essential skills they need to get on in work.”

The government proposes to set up eight youth “trailblazer” areas across the country, allocating £45 million to identify those “most at risk of falling out of education or employment and match them to opportunities for education, training or work,” with a further £40 million allocated to transform the Apprenticeship system.

However, the BCC said in its report that there was a lack of clarity as to how the youth guarantee scheme will work in practice, and whether there will be sufficient funding to last the entire course of the next Parliament.

“Details of how this will be delivered, and the role of employers, are still unclear. While employers want to support the initiative, the rising cost of employment and the squeeze on training budgets could restrict their ability to participate.”

The BCC noted that there is a “lack of incentive” for small- and medium-sized businesses to take on young people, particularly those classed as NEET, because of the financial risk.

“Employers report that young people are more resource-intensive to train and employ, due to their increased need for pastoral care, and their higher staff turnover. Combined with the likelihood that NEETs may have additional needs such as Special Educational Needs (SEN) or mental health challenges, resource-stretched SMEs may feel unable to offer the support needed,” the authors said, adding that the role of government should be to “derisk” this for businesses that take on and retain these young people.

California lawmakers on the Public Safety Committee advanced a bill that would crack down on child sex trafficking - but only after language was removed that would have made it a felony to purchase 16 and 17-year-olds.

Assemblymembers Mia Monta (D) and LaShae Sharp Collins (D) abstained from the vote.

Assembly Bill 379, introduced by Assemblymember Maggy Krell (D), targets buyers of commercial sex. Krell previously worked at the California DOJ, where she became known for prosecuting the operators of Backpage.com - which was shut down in 2018 for facilitating sex trafficking and prostitution.

The bill is opposed by Assemblymember Mark Gonzalez (D-Los Angeles), who says the bill would disproportionately impact communities of color.

Democratic Assemblyman is concerned that this bill addressing human/sex trafficking (and was supposed to make it a felony to solicit 16 and 17 years old) will disproportionately affect black and brown communities and LGBTQI+ community. pic.twitter.com/rDPO4GeMw9

So, it's racist to crack down on child sex trafficking. Got it.

The bill, introduced in February, includes provisions to create a misdemeanor for loitering with the intent to solicit commercial sex - and imposes fines as high as $25,000 for soliciting minors under the age of 16. It also allows felony human trafficking charges for repeat offenders who buy sex from minors.

It also would create a first-of-its-kind Survivor Support Fund - which would go to community-based organizations led by survivors of human trafficking.

As the Epoch Times notes further, while introducing the bill to the committee, Krell said it would support victims and give law enforcement better tools to prosecute the buyers.

“Demand is the buyers,” she said. “It is the rows of cars of men lined up on street corners to buy teenagers for sex,” she said. “Without the buyers, we don’t really have sex trafficking.”

The bill drew support from the California District Attorneys Association, the California Police Chief Association, the San Bernardino County Sheriff’s Department, the City of Stockton, the Association for L.A. Deputy Sheriffs, the League of County Board of Supervisors, and more.

The bill also reinstates penalties for offenses that were decriminalized by a 2022 California law, such as loitering with the intent to purchase a victim. Those convicted would face a misdemeanor and pay up to a $1,000 fine that would go toward the fund for survivors.

Opponents, including survivors of child trafficking, focused on this aspect of the law in their testimony.

Jess Torres, a child trafficking survivor and director of programs at Rising International, respectfully opposed the bill, saying it hinges on a vaguely defined suspicion of intent to do something criminal, rather than evidence.

“This bill will only escalate violence against survivors because persons who are trafficked in commercial sex are harmed when they operate in a criminalized environment,” Torres said. “When buyers believe they are taking on greater risk, they often become more demanding, and that pressure frequently becomes compromising.”

Leela Chapelle of the Coalition to Abolish Slavery and Trafficking also opposed the bill, arguing that loitering with intent laws harm communities they claim to protect and are unconstitutional.

“We do believe that this will cause the same issues that we have seen over and over again, that we spend our resources clearing the criminal records of survivors, that should not have happened in the first place—these criminal records that prevent them from lives of stability,” Chapelle said.

Opposition also included the LA Public Defenders Union and the San Francisco Public Defender’s Office.

The bill is now due to advance on to the Assembly Appropriations Committee before it can advance to a full vote on the Assembly floor and the Senate.

Last week we highlighted the next economic shock; a student loan default wave that could cause a $63 billion hit to GDP.

And here it comes. During Wednesday's Cabinet meeting, Education Secretary Linda McMahon said "We're going to start getting it back," adding "For those people who have borrowed money and have not been paying -- that's just not to be punitive, there are many ways that they can go online to understand how they can get back into the right payment structure. Because when they're in default, they can't buy a house, they can't buy a car, their credit scores go down." h/t Jennifer Jacobs

As we reported last week (full note available to premium subscribers), student-loan delinquencies began climbing after the pandemic-era forbearance on repayment ended in September 2023. The Biden administration allowed a year for payments to fully ramp back up, which temporarily suppressed delinquency rates. Now, though, missed payments are crossing the 90-day threshold and showing up on borrowers’ credit reports.

*  *  *

Support independent media. Grab a ZeroHedge hat at the ZH Store, or buy any 2 bags of coffee and receive a free ZeroHedge Tumbler!

The New York Fed estimates 15.6% of federal student-loan balances —  more than $250 billion — were past due by the end of the ramp-up period, affecting 9.7 million borrowers. As these delinquencies hit credit reports, borrowers face steep declines in their credit scores and, more importantly, sharply reduced access to credit.

That said, delinquent borrowers could still enroll in income-driven repayment plans offered by the Department of Education, and the scale of past-due loans may have shifted since the end of the on-ramp period. Some borrowers who were past due may have come back into compliance since.

Overall, if 9.7 million borrowers default and face declining credit scores, BBG estimates a drag on annual PCE spending of 0.1% point to 0.3%. In the worst-case scenario, it could reduce PCE spending growth by as much as 0.4% by year-end... an outcome that is extremely deflationary, just in case Jerome Powell is still debating whether or not to pull the plug on rate cuts.

It is impossible to know the degree to which this is typical conflict propaganda, but Pakistan is claiming that India is planning a military strike on its territory, and that this is coming within less than one to two days.

"Pakistan has credible intelligence that India intends to launch a military strike within the next 24 to 36 hours, using the Pahalgam incident as a false pretext," Pakistan's Information Minister Attaullah Tarar wrote on X Tuesday evening.

Via Middle East Institute

"Any act of aggression will be met with a decisive response. India will be fully responsible for any serious consequences in the region," Tarar added.

India has charged that Pakistan harbored the terrorists responsible for the attack on Indian-administered Kashmir which came one week ago and left 26 dead. They were mostly tourists from India visiting the popular and picturesque spot, and the gunmen chose them for execution on the spot because they were Hindu.

Gunfire has already been exchanged between the nuclear-armed rivals over the last several days, with neither side reporting any casualties or major incidents.

The last time there was a major terror attack targeting Indians in Kashmir, the Indian Air Force did respond:

The worst attack in recent years in Indian-run Kashmir was at Pulwama in 2019, when an insurgent rammed a car packed with explosives into a security forces convoy, killing 40 and wounding 35.

Indian fighter jets carried out air strikes on Pakistani territory 12 days later.

Pakistan has meanwhile welcomed China and Russia's efforts to mediate de-escalation, also as the United Nations has urged restraint.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said he is holding dialogue with officials from both sides. "We are reaching out to both parties, and telling, of course, them to not escalate the situation," a statement from the State Dept said.

The only significant military action so far is that Pakistan's military said Tuesday it shot down an Indian spy drone over Kashmir, alleging that the UAV breached Pakistani-administered territory.

Pakistan has credible intelligence that within the next 24 to 36 hours, India is planning military action against Pakistan based on baseless and fabricated accusations related to the Pahalgam incident. – Information Minister Attaullah Tarar#IndiaPakistan #PakistanBehindPahalgam pic.twitter.com/8juDCkUFCJ

The drone reportedly breached the Line of Control (LOC), Pakistani state-run media said, and it was subsequently shot down amid the air space incursion. Pakistani defense officials described to The Associated Press that the drone flew hundreds of feet into Pakistani-administered Kashmir.

And alarmingly, a Pakistani minister, Hanif Abbasi (though he's not in defense or security) days ago warned that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal of more than 130 missiles was "not kept as models" and was aimed “only for India … these ballistic missiles, all of them are targeted at you" - as cited in The Guardian.

Authored by Rachel Acenas via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Tuesday announced he is scrapping a women’s leadership program implemented during President Donald Trump’s first term.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth speaks during the Central American Security Conference in Panama City, on April 9, 2025. Matias Delacroix/AP Photo

The program is operated by the United Nations and is “pushed by feminists and left-wing activists,” according to the defense secretary.

“This morning, I proudly ENDED the ‘Women, Peace & Security’ (WPS) program inside the [Department of Defense],” Hegseth wrote in a statement on X. “WPS is yet another woke divisive/social justice/Biden initiative that overburdens our commanders and troops—distracting from our core task: WAR-FIGHTING.”

Hegseth said that “politicians fawn” over the program but troops “hate” it.

The WPS program was developed in response to the Women, Peace, and Security Act, which Trump signed into law on Oct. 6, 2017. The Trump administration at the time said it recognized that women are important agents of change in preventing and resolving conflicts, countering violent extremism, and building peace and stability.

The law, outlined by the U.N. Security Council and adopted as in a resolution in 2000, had been championed over the years by various members of Congress. The cause was then taken up by Ivanka Trump, the president’s daughter and former advisor, after it was signed into U.S. law.

Ivanka said in a June 2019 statement that good defense policy requires women’s participation and empowerment. She also stated that women are “critically underrepresented in conflict-resolution and post-conflict peace building efforts” and women only make up 2 percent of mediators, 3 percent of military personnel, and 9 percent of negotiators globally.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem co-sponsored the WPS Act when she represented South Dakota in Congress.

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), who co-wrote the 2017 bill with then-Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), wrote on X that Hegseth’s latest move was “short-sighted.” She disagreed with Hegseth’s assertion that troops hate the program and argued it’s supported by military leadership and has proven to give the country a strategic advantage.

Amy McGrath, the first woman to fly a combat mission for the Marine Corps, argued in a statement on X that the program brought women to the negotiating table to end conflicts around the world. McGrath added that more sustainable peace is likely when women are included.

Hegseth later Tuesday appeared to push back on any criticism of his move on X.  He doubled down on his decision to scrub the program, suggesting that the Biden administration “distorted and weaponized” the women’s initiative that was meant to be “straight-forward and security-focused” after it launched in 2017. Hegesth did not further elaborate how Biden allegedly “ruined” the program.

Tuesday’s announcement aligns with the Trump administration’s efforts to end federal diversity initiatives across the government. It also aligns with the efforts by the Department of Government Efficiency to slash government waste and abuse.

Hegseth declared he would “fight to end the program for our next budget.” The Pentagon did not provide specific details on how much the initiative costs.

From NTD News

A slowdown in economic activity, combined with growing tariff uncertainty, appears to be curbing consumer appetite for highly processed junk food. The latest trends show a declining demand for sweet snacks in North America as more shoppers shift their spending toward real food, such as meat, vegetables, and eggs. 

Mondelez International — the maker of Sour Patch Kids, Oreos, Ritz, Toblerone, Cadbury, and other highly processed food brands — reported slower-than-expected sales for the first quarter.

Organic revenue, which excludes currency fluctuations and one-time items, increased 3.1%, falling short of the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 3.5%. Notably, sales in North America declined during the quarter. 

On an earnings call, Mondelez CEO Dirk Van de Put told analysts: "I really do not expect to see a significant improvement in consumer confidence in the near term in the US." 

"Two, three years ago consumers would easily pay above $4 for a pack of biscuits," Van de Put said adding, "We're now seeing that we need to be below $4 and ideally below $3."

Mondelez noted that shoppers are beginning to prioritize real food — if that's meat, vegetables, and eggs — over snacks, chips, and candy. Also, lower-income consumers are pivoting towards smaller packages, while higher-income consumers are searching for larger value bundles. 

Mondelez reiterated its full-year guidance and warned profit will slide 10% this year "due to unprecedented cocoa cost inflation."

Weighing in on the North American junk food slowdown, Goldman analysts Leah Jordan and Eli Thompson offered clients their first take on Mondelez's first-quarter results and its unchanged full-year outlook:

1. North America came in softer-than-expected on the back of retailer destocking and softer cracker demand as the consumer remains value-focused;

2. chocolate elasticity tracked in-line with expectations, although more pricing is still to come; and

3. MDLZ reiterated its FY25 guide in constant currency while potential upside is likely to be reinvested throughout the year to support potential growth in FY26

The key takeaway for the North American market:

• North America softer-than-expected: Organic net sales in North America came in softer-than-expected at -3.6% (vs GS/consensus of flat/+0.1%), largely due to retailer destocking (-250 bps), while segment profitability also missed. The destocking impact should be one time in nature, but we do not expect it to reverse as we have heard from retailers that this effort has been driven by efficiency gains. Additionally, MDLZ noted softer demand for crackers (vs cookies), although both categories are holding up relatively better than other parts of snacking, plus the company is holding share due to investments in price pack architecture and key activations. Additionally, management spoke to increasing promotional activity by peers in crackers, and we see greater private label competition in the category as well. Regarding consumer behavior, the company noted a shift to smaller pack sizes by the lower end and toward multi-packs for upper income cohorts, along with a shift in channels toward dollar stores, clubs, and value retailers.

Details about the cocoa market:

• Chocolate elasticity tracking in-line, although more pricing still to come: MDLZ indicated elasticity within chocolate tracked in-line with expectations at -0.5%, while it gained share in the category. However, more pricing will be implemented in the spring with management taking a wait and see approach while expressing confidence in its chocolate strategy with a range of price points. The company expects a top line acceleration throughout the year, supported by both pricing and volumes, with Easter strength noted for 2Q and pricing negotiations are now complete in Europe (vs a disruption last year). By region, management highlighted solid Easter chocolate demand for Europe/UK, Brazil, and Australia, with stable YTD elasticities noted for Europe and Emerging Markets. Notably, MDLZ indicated greater elasticity for chocolate in the U.S. vs ROW with volumes tracking down -5%, which is a negative read-through for HSY.

Notes on guidance:

• Reiterated FY25 guide with potential upside expected to be reinvested: MDLZ reiterated its FY25 guidance with an adj EPS decline of -10% (constant currency), noting potential upside would likely be reinvested (e.g., 1Q beat planned to be reinvested in marketing this year), while the tariff impact remains small. FY25 organic sales guidance was also reiterated at +5%, with sequential improvements supported by both volume and pricing. We also expect a gross margin improvement throughout the year tied to its pricing action. Regarding FY26, MDLZ expects EPS growth y/y, but management stopped short on the magnitude of potential ranges given cocoa uncertainty. For cocoa, the company still sees a supply/demand surplus with further demand destruction likely (as some will likely reformulate). Furthermore, the company sounded constructive on its position given lower cocoa butter prices y/y, its bigger input exposure.

Despite key downside risks, such as an economic slowdown, Goldman analysts remained "Buy" rated on Mondelez, with a 12-month price target of $71. 

Mondelez did not indicate that the slowdown in junk food demand was influenced by the "Make America Healthy Again" movement in any way (well at least not yet). 

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: The Houston Independent School District is facing a budget deficit that at one point reached $250 million, but that did not stop Superintendent Mike Miles from accepting a $126,730 bonus in April to supplement his $380,000 salary.

Key facts: Miles’ bonus was calculated after he received a 66.7 out of 100 on his first annual evaluation from the school board that measured student performance, “executive leadership” and “vision,” according to the Houston Chronicle. A perfect score would have netted Miles a $190,000 bonus.

The school district has struggled with funding for years, as have other large school districts in Texas. The state government has not increased public school funding since 2019 to keep pace with inflation, and yet some of Houston’s struggles come simply from overspending. Cumulative inflation from 2019 to 2024 in the U.S. was 22%, but Houston ISD increased its payroll by 29% in that timespan, according to OpenTheBooks’ database. 

Last year the school released an audit detailing “overtime abuse” that forced the district to pay $26 million in one year. Auditors also found an “overreliance on purchased services” and “overuse of consultants with several other costs to overall effectiveness.”

The district began the current school year with a $125 million deficit, but Miles asked the school board to approve an amendment that increased spending and ballooned the deficit to $250 million, forcing the district to dig into its reserves and one-time savings.

Next year the district projects a $33 million deficit after laying off 1,500 employees. Miles is also considering closing some school buildings to cut costs.

Search all federal, state and local government salaries and vendor spending with the AI search bot, Benjamin, at OpenTheBooks.com. 

Supporting quote: Miles told the school’s community advisory committee, “I assure you, that bonus and incentive was well deserved, and I know my value, and achievement results show that.”

Critical quote: The Houston Chronicle’s editorial board equated Miles’ 66.7 evaluation score to a “D,” claiming that “It’s a lousy grade. The kind you bury at the bottom of your backpack in hopes it disappears before somebody sees. That's essentially what the district tried to do. Chronicle reporters had to file a public information request to get a copy of the evaluation.”

Summary: Houston is far from the only school district giving its superintendent a generous bonus, but a fiscal crisis — and a “D” grade — is not the time to do it. 

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

*  *  *

You can support ZeroHedge by picking up a waxed canvas hat!

Click hat... add to cart... check out... receive awesome hat...

Via American Greatness,

Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) has reintroduced the “Preventing Elected Leaders from Owning Securities and Investments” (PELOSI) Act that would prohibit members of Congress and their families from trading stocks while in office.

The name of the act is a direct nod in the direction of 20 term Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) whose net worth has soared from $160,000 when she was first elected in 1987 to more than $140 million in 2024.

The bill to ban congressional stock trading is entitled the PELOSI Act, or "Preventing Elected Leaders from Owning Securities and Investments."

I usually don't like cute names for pieces of legislation, but this one hit the nail on the head. Bravo.

Pass it!! pic.twitter.com/pN8nicKJRx

Pelosi’s husband Paul, who narrowly survived a hammer attack 2022, is an investor who has made significant financial gains on stock trades that some speculate may have been based on insider information.

Hawley first introduced the PELOSI Act in 2023 but it failed to gain traction under the Biden administration.

Since then, the proposal has gained support on both sides of the congressional aisle and Fox News reports that President Trump has said he would “absolutely” sign the ban if it arrives on his desk.

Hawley has been a consistent critic of members of Congress being more focused on day-trading than they are on representing their constituents.

In a statement, Hawley said, “Americans have seen politician after politician turn a profit using information not available to the general public. It’s time we ban all members of Congress from trading and holding stocks and restore Americans’ trust in our nation’s legislative body.”

The PELOSI Act would prohibit lawmakers and their spouses from purchasing, selling or holding stocks during the time that the lawmaker is in office.

Lawmakers would still be able to invest in U.S. Treasury Bonds, diversified mutual funds or exchange-traded funds while in office.

Should the PELOSI Act be signed into law, current members of Congress would have 180 days to comply with newly elected members being required to comply with in 180 days of entering office.

Lawmakers who violate the act would be required to hand over their profits to the U.S. Treasury Department and could also face fines of up to 10% on each transaction.

It had already been a miserable month for oil, which has suffered its worst monthly performance since 2021 and also is on pace for its month of April on record... and then it got even worse when shortly before noon ET, when Reuters reported, citing multiple sources, that Saudi Arabian officials are briefing allies and industry experts to say the kingdom is unwilling to prop up the oil market with further supply cuts and can handle a prolonged period of low prices.

This shift in Saudi policy could suggest a move toward producing more and expanding its market share, a major change after five years spent balancing the market through deep output as a leader of the OPEC+ group of oil producers. Those cuts had supported prices, in turn bolstering the oil export revenue that many oil producers rely on, but many OPEC+ members - most notably Kazakhstan - took advantage of the production restraint and blew away through their export quotas, infuriating other cartel members.

Sure enough, Reuters notes that Riyadh has been angered by Kazakhstan and Iraq producing above their OPEC+ targets. And after pushing members to adhere to those targets and to compensate for oversupply in recent months, a frustrated Riyadh is changing tack, OPEC+ sources said.

Saudi Arabia pushed for a larger-than-planned OPEC+ output hike in May, a decision that helped send oil prices below $60 a barrel to a 4-year low.

And now that Kazahkstan blew it for all cartel members, everyone will share the pain equally, as lower prices are bad news for producers that rely on oil exports to fund their economies. Although producers like Saudi have a very low cost of production, they need higher oil prices to pay for government spending. When oil prices fall, many large oil-producing countries come under pressure to cut their budgets.

And just to confirm that they are not bluffing, the Saudis appear to be briefing allies and experts that they are ready to do just that. The last time they did just that was in March 2020, just before covid shut down the global economy and briefly sent oil prices negative, sparking budget crises across all OPEC members.

Saudi officials in recent weeks have told allies and market participants the kingdom can live with the fall in prices by raising borrowing and cutting costs, the five sources said.

"The Saudis are ready for lower prices and may need to pull back on some major projects," one of the sources said. All sources declined to be named due to sensitivity of the issue.

The problem is that Saudi Arabia needs oil prices above $90 to balance its budget, higher than other large OPEC producers such as the United Arab Emirates, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As a result, Riyadh may need to delay or cut back some projects due to the price drop, analysts have said.

OPEC+, which besides the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also includes allies such as Russia, may decide to speed up output hikes again in June, OPEC+ sources have said. OPEC+ is cutting output by over 5 million barrels or 5% of global supply, to which Saudi Arabia is contributing two-fifths.

Russia, the second largest exporter in OPEC+ behind Saudi Arabia, is aware of Riyadh's plans for faster output increases, said two of the five sources who are familiar with the Russian thinking and conversations with Riyadh. Even so, Russia would prefer the group stick to slower output increases.

Saudi Arabia and Russia, the de facto leaders of OPEC+, make the biggest contributions to OPEC+ cuts. Russia's budget balances at about $70 a barrel and the Kremlin's spending is on the rise due to the Russian war in Ukraine.
Russia may see a further fall in revenue as prices for its discounted, sanctioned oil could fall below $50 a barrel as a result of OPEC+ output rises, one of the two sources said.

Theories on the apparent change in Saudi strategy range from punishing OPEC+ members exceeding their quotas to a move to fight for market share after ceding ground to non-OPEC+ producers such as the United States and Guyana. Higher output may also be a fillip to U.S. President Donald Trump, who has called for OPEC to boost output to help keep U.S. gasoline prices down.

Trump is due to visit Saudi Arabia in May and could offer Riyadh an arms package and a nuclear agreement. OPEC+ decided to triple its planned output increase to 411,000 bpd.

That still leaves OPEC+ holding back more than 5 million bpd, curbs the group aims to unwind by the end of 2026. 

"We would still call this a 'managed' unwind of cuts and not a fight for market share," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

“This confirms the market’s fears that Saudi Arabia’s accelerated unwinds were not temporary, but a long-term strategy shift,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. It raises the question of whether “Saudi is going to repeat the 2020 playbook to dramatically increase production.”

For now the market is voting "yes", and the news sent WTI tumbling as much as 4%,or more than $2 to just under $58, the lowest price since early 2021 (and a level which was only briefly breached after Trump's Liberation Day sent oil to $55 before rebounding rapidly).

OPEC+ rocked the crude market in early April, with a surprise decision to increase supply in May by 411,000 barrels a day, the equivalent of three monthly tranches from a previous plan. Morgan Stanley has said it expects a “meaningful surplus” to develop over time, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. warned the cartel may accelerate planned production increases at a meeting next week.

Beyond OPEC+, non-cartel nations are also expected to add supplies, including drillers in Canada and Guyana, feeding concerns about a global glut.

At the same time, hopes are fading that there will be quick breakthroughs in US-led trade negotiations, weighing on the outlook for energy demand. The US economy contracted for the first time since 2022 in the first quarter as a result of a surge in pre-tariff imports and softer consumer spending. In China, factory activity slipped into the worst contraction since December 2023, revealing early damage from the trade war.

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

Last year, central banks purchased approximately 34 million ounces of gold, marking the third consecutive year of near-record buying.

We’re witnessing the acceleration of a long-term trend that began around the 2008 financial crisis, when central banks shifted from net sellers to net buyers of gold. That trend has exploded in recent years, with gold purchases surging to record-breaking levels, as shown in the chart below.

All signs indicate that 2025 will be another massive year for central bank gold buying.

Central banks and governments are the largest single holders of gold in the world. Together, they officially own over 1.2 billion troy ounces—out of the 6.9 billion ounces humans have mined throughout history.

However, these are just the official numbers that governments report. The actual gold holdings could be much higher, as governments tend to be secretive about their reserves, treating gold as a strategic financial asset.

Russia and China—the US’s top geopolitical rivals—have been the biggest gold buyers over the last two decades.

It’s no secret that China has been stashing away as much gold as possible for many years.

China is the world’s largest producer and buyer of gold. Russia is number two. Most of that gold enters the Chinese and Russian government’s vaults.

The trend of central bank gold accumulation is gaining momentum. If the rest of the world is moving back toward gold, the US will not want to be left behind.

Yet, officially, the US has not added a single ounce to its 261 million ounces of gold reserves in decades.

Unofficially? That may be a different story.

Since Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election last November, a sudden flood of physical gold has flowed into the US from major gold hubs like London, Switzerland, and elsewhere.

The gold market is typically dominated by paper trading, with large-scale physical deliveries being rare. However, CNBC and the World Gold Council report that more than 19 million ounces—possibly much more—of physical gold has entered the US since November.

That’s roughly 13% of the total alleged gold holdings in Fort Knox flowing into the US in less than six months.

This is not normal market action.

This strongly suggests that a non-market entity—most likely the US government—is behind this massive gold movement.

That’s why Trump’s recent comments about Fort Knox are so interesting.

Trump recently brought Fort Knox into the national conversation, something no US president has done in decades.

Would he have even mentioned the possibility of auditing Fort Knox if the vaults were empty? I doubt it.

Instead, there’s a good chance that the enormous inflow of physical gold into the US is happening in anticipation of an audit.

Connecting the Dots—Something Big Is Coming

So, here’s what we know:

1. Trump has put Fort Knox’s gold holdings back in the national spotlight for the first time in decades.

2. Central bank gold purchases are accelerating at record-breaking levels.

3. An unusually large influx of physical gold is flowing into the US, far beyond regular market activity.

Follow the Gold. It Always Leads to the Truth

Central banks are hoarding gold at record levels. The US government is likely pulling in millions of ounces. And Trump is talking about Fort Knox.

This isn’t coincidence.

Find out what they’re preparing for and how you can be ready in our urgent dispatch:

The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years… the Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now

Click here see it now.