Distinction Matter - Subscribed Feeds

In an effort to combat “potential public corruption,” the nation’s top law enforcement agency is revisiting one of the most significant and high-profile unsolved cases from the Biden administration era. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Deputy Director Dan Bongino announced Monday that he and FBI Director Kash Patel are going to “re-open” an investigation into the consequential 2022 leak of the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, which sparked widespread violence across the nation, including at least one attempted assassination of a Supreme Court justice.

“Shortly after swearing in, the director and I evaluated a number of cases of potential public corruption that, understandably, have garnered public interest. We made the decision to either re-open or push additional resources and investigative attention to these cases,” Bongino shared. He continued, “I receive requested briefings on these cases weekly, and we are making progress. If you have any investigative tips on these matters that may assist us then please contact the FBI.”

John Malcolm, vice president of the Institute for Constitutional Government and director of Meese Center for Legal and Judicial Studies at the Heritage Foundation, told The Washington Stand, “The Dobbs leak was a gross abuse of trust by someone within the court system.” He explained, “I doubt that the Dobbs leak itself had much impact on how the public views the court’s legitimacy and impartiality. The public’s view of such matters is more governed by whether they like the results in particular cases and by ill-considered, harsh rhetoric challenging the integrity of some of the justices and criticizing opinions in controversial cases.” He continued, “In a very real way, though, the Dobbs leak imperiled the lives of the justices and their families.”

Get the latest pro-life news and information on X (Twitter). Follow @LifeNewsHQ//

In May of 2022, Politico published a draft Supreme Court opinion, authored in February by Justice Samuel Alito, in the case of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. The draft opinion made it evident that not only was the Supreme Court all but certain to rule in favor of the Mississippi pro-life law at the center of the case, but that a majority of justices on the Supreme Court were prepared to overturn Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, prior Supreme Court opinions (handed down in 1973 and 1992, respectively) which had extended broad federal legal protections to the practice of abortion.

Politico cited a “person familiar with the court’s deliberations” to confirm that Justices Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett had already voted in favor of Alito’s opinion following oral arguments in December of 2021, yielding a five-justice majority to strike down Roe and Casey, as the abortion-centered precedents are known colloquially.

Chief Justice John Roberts, who sided with the majority on Mississippi’s pro-life law but did not join in overturning Roe and Casey, publicly confirmed that the leaked draft opinion was authentic. He said in a written statement at the time that “this betrayal of the confidences of the Court was intended to undermine the integrity of our operations…” Roberts added, “This was a singular and egregious breach of that trust that is an affront to the Court and the community of public servants who work here.” CNN later reported that Roberts had been attempting to sway his fellow Republican-appointed justices to join him in his own opinion, which would not have affected Roe and Casey, but would have still upheld Mississippi’s pro-life legislation. The news outlet said that the leak of the draft opinion “made the effort all but impossible…”

When the Supreme Court issued its final verdict in late June, the published opinion was almost identical to the leaked Alito draft, and Alito was joined by Thomas, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett, just as Politico had anticipated. Of course, other news outlets — such as SCOTUSblog, CNN, and CNBC — had made similar predictions following oral arguments, over six months before the Supreme Court rendered a final ruling, based purely on the line of questioning pursued by Republican-appointed justices.

Although the draft opinion leak was declared “unprecedented” by some news outlets, there have been some leaks in the past. It has been reported that the Supreme Court’s 1857 ruling in Dred Scott v. Sandford, holding that black slaves were not legally classified as U.S. citizens, was leaked to then-President-elect James Buchanan just a few days before the ruling itself was published. However, the narrow scope of the leak naturally narrowed its impact, only allowing Buchanan to prepare to deal politically with the Supreme Court’s ruling.

In 1973, the Supreme Court’s Roe ruling was leaked to Time Magazine. While this leak was broader in scope than the Dred Scott leak, being published in a well-read national news magazine, it still had little impact on the court’s actual ruling. Larry Hammond, a clerk for Justice Lewis Powell, gave a copy of the opinion to a Times reporter, expecting the ruling to have been published by the Supreme Court before the magazine could publish its next issue. A slight delay in the Supreme Court’s publication of the decision, however, meant that the text of the controversial opinion was printed and published by Time hours before the Supreme Court published its decision officially.

The Dobbs leak was, perhaps, equally broad in its scope but significantly deeper in its impact. The Supreme Court, in this instance, was not mere hours away from publishing an already-finalized opinion — as the final opinion itself makes clear, Alito made several changes between February and the date of the Supreme Court’s final ruling — but was still in the late stages of deliberation and would not officially render an opinion for nearly two months. A lot can happen in two months.

Already anticipating a possible ruling aborting Roe and Casey, groups like Planned Parenthood had planned a series of demonstrations and protests, but rapidly re-organized the events in the wake of the Dobbs leak. Thousands of pro-abortion activists marched through Washington, D.C. and major metropolitan centers like New York City and Los Angeles less than two weeks after the Dobbs leak. Some pro-abortion groups warned that the nation could expect a “summer of rage” if the Supreme Court followed through on the leaked opinion. With the disastrous Black Lives Matter riots of 2020 — which cost unparallelled billions of dollars in property damages, injured at least 700 police officers in a matter of mere months, and claiming 25 lives or more — fresh in the minds of many Americans, the threat was not taken lightly.

In fact, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) specifically warned in a memo that political violence was likely to occur as a result of the Dobbs leak and would only “persist and may increase leading up to and following the issuing of the Court’s official ruling.” While the memo, issued under the tenure of pro-abortion then-President Joe Biden, claimed that “racially or ethnically motivated violent extremists’ embrace of pro-life narratives may be linked to the perception of wanting to ‘save white children’ and ‘fight white genocide,’” the DHS ultimately warned that political violence would most likely be carried out by pro-abortion activists.

Pro-abortion activists made clear their intent to target pro-life pregnancy resource centers and Catholic parishes in response to the Dobbs leak. DHS reportedly warned the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB) of credible threats against Catholic parishes and leaders. The Catholic Church, of course, has long opposed abortion and Justices Alito, Thomas, Kavanaugh, and Barrett are all Catholics; Gorsuch was raised Catholic and educated by Jesuits, and both Roberts and Sotomayor identify as Catholic, although Roberts did not join the majority in reversing Roe and Casey and Sotomayor has long been an abortion proponent. The advocacy organization CatholicVote reported that there have been, to date, nearly 340 attacks on Catholic churches in the U.S. since the Dobbs leak, ranging from vandalism and property destruction to attempted arson and firebombing.

Five weeks after the Dobbs leak, a man flew from California to D.C. with the intention of going on a killing spree. His target: Supreme Court justices. Nicholas Roske went to Kavanaugh’s house first, in Montgomery County, Maryland. He was armed with a pistol and equipped with gear to break into the justice’s house undetected. Roske confirmed that he intended to kill at least three justices and specifically cited the leaked Dobbs opinion as his inspiration. Notably, the Chief Justice had been courting Kavanaugh as a potential ally in defecting from the majority and joining him in his own opinion, which would have effectively split the Supreme Court and preserved Roe and Casey. Thanks to the increased presence of U.S. Marshals deputies providing security for Kavanaugh and the other justices, Roske turned himself in to police. He is slated to be sentenced in October of this year.

Malcolm commented to TWS, “This should not have been surprising.” He explained, “The would-be assassin no doubt figured out that if he could kill one of the justices in the majority, that would not only change the outcome of the case (since a four-to-four tie would have left the lower court opinion, which upheld Roe, in place), but also would have resulted in President Biden getting to replace one of the Republican appointees; there is no question that anyone he would have appointed would vote in a future case to uphold Roe. Thankfully, that assassination attempt failed.”

Immediately following the leak, Roberts ordered Supreme Court Marshal Gail Curley to conduct an investigation determining who leaked the draft opinion and how. Nearly nine months later, in late January of 2023, Curley and the Supreme Court admitted that the investigation had been unsuccessful. The investigation included forensic analysis, nearly 130 interviews with staff members, and an examination of Supreme Court policies and processes regarding the circulation of drafts and the use of technology. A report from Curley’s office concluded that “investigators have found no forensic evidence indicating who disclosed the draft opinion.”

Glenn Fine, a former Inspector General (IG) for the Department of Justice and deputy I.G. for the Department of Defense, wrote a scathing critique of Curley’s investigation in March of 2023. “This result did not surprise me,” Fine said of the investigation’s lack of resolution, noting that, in his prodigious experience, leaks “are notoriously difficult to resolve.” The IG extraordinaire wrote, “Unfortunately, the leak investigation … demonstrates how not to conduct a leak investigation.” He continued, “The first problem in the Court’s leak investigation was whom the Court asked to conduct it.” Fine pointed to Curley’s lack of experience in “conducting this type of complex investigation” and the fact that she “did not have the necessary independence to conduct the investigation. In essence, she was asked to investigate her bosses, the justices, who are in the universe of potential leakers. They supervise her and can fire her.”

Fine also noted a point that numerous news outlets, political pundits, and armchair investigators had also raised their eyebrows over when Curley’s report was first published: while the investigation interviewed nearly 100 staff members, law clerks, and others under oath, the justices themselves were not put under oath. Interviews were conducted with them, sometimes multiple interviews, but neither the justices nor their families were put under oath or asked for sworn depositions. Fine wrote that Curley did not give “any reason for this double standard. It was an Alice in Wonderland investigation: The conclusion seemed to come first — let’s focus on the clerks and employees, not the justices, as the likely source of the leak — rather than result from a consistent investigation focusing on all potential leakers.”

Although Bongino announced that the FBI will “re-open” an investigation into the Dobbs leak, the law enforcement agency never formally opened an investigation in the first place. Concerned with ensuring the Supreme Court’s independence and autonomy, Roberts did not ask the FBI to intervene but instead suggested that the Supreme Court investigate itself.

Malcolm commented, “While I do not know whether the initial investigation was inadequate, I do know that the FBI has certain tools at its disposal that the Supreme Court’s Marshal’s Office and an outside contractor do not have.” Those tools include “being able to issue subpoenas, obtain electronic evidence, and convene a grand jury to receive evidence, including live testimony. I hope that with these tools the FBI will be able to uncover the identity of the leaker,” he added.

Malcolm further anticipated that the leaker, if identified, could face years of prison. “The leaker could be subjected to criminal penalties. Two crimes come to mind. First, obstruction of justice (18 U.S.C. § 1503), which carries a potential 10-year sentence, makes it crime to ‘corruptly … endeavor[] to influence, intimidate any … court of the United States … or endeavor[] to influence, obstruct, or impede, the due administration of justice ….’” Malcolm explained. He continued, “The second, conversion of government property (18 U.S.C. § 641), which carries a potential 10-year sentence, makes it a crime to ‘knowing[ly] convert[] to his use or the use of another … any record … or thing of value of the United States or of any department of agency thereof ….’” He added, “And, of course, if the perpetrator lies to a federal agent or before a grand jury during the course of this investigation, there are additional criminal statutes that would apply.”

LifeNews Note: S.A. McCarthy serves as a news writer at The Washington Stand.

The post FBI Will Investigate Unsolved Dobbs Leak appeared first on LifeNews.com.

“Sykes-Picot is breaking; putting it back together, even in a different shape, will be a long and bloody affair”. So wrote Tim Marshall back in 2016 in his book Ten Maps That Tell You Everything You Need to Know about Global Politics — essentially a eulogy for European and British border redrawing, particularly in the Middle East (West Asia) region. 

Syria withstood decades of clandestine operations by MI6 and the CIA to reshape history in a sovereign nation that represented this blurring of the Sykes-Picot lines drawn in 1916. It was a secret agreement that divided the Ottoman Empire into British and French spheres of influence. Lines were drawn with no respect for the ethnic, tribal, and religious boundaries in the region, which would lead to orchestrated instability and conflict for a century after. 

Arab academic and journalist Myriam Charabaty had this to say about the end of Sykes-Picot: 

The rise of resistance across Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen unraveled Sykes-Picot’s colonial borders, forging a shared identity and uniting fronts. The West, foreseeing that an Islamic Resistance would reject the region’s fragmented map, launched the ‘Arab Springs’ to reconfigure roles beyond Sykes-Picot. 

The fall of Syria took 14 long and bloody years to achieve. An estimated one million Syrians perished in the long years of war against the terrorist proxy forces unleashed by the US, UK, EU, Turkey, Arab Gulf States, and Israel. The majority of those Syrians were soldiers in the Syrian Arab Army who gave their lives to defend their country from the Takfiri project hatched by the UK and US post 9/11, in defence of Israel.

George W. Bush In A British Pub with PM Blair, 21 Nov. 2003

The regime change war against Syria can be traced back to globalist British Prime Minister Tony Blair and US President George W. Bush. It can also be attributed to the Clean Break Doctrine, a CIA strategy paper, for Israel, written in 1996 that outlined:

Israel can shape its strategic environment, in cooperation with Turkey and Jordan, by weakening, containing, and even rolling back Syria. This effort can focus on removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq, an important Israeli strategic objective in its own right as a means of foiling Syria’s regional ambitions.

As special consultant to US Presidents Nixon, Ford, and Reagan, Pat Buchanan, put it: “In the Perle-Feith-Wurmser strategy, Israel’s enemy remains Syria, but the road to Damascus runs through Baghdad”.

In 2017, Dr. Piers Robinson wrote a paper entitled ‘Learning from the Chilcot Report: Propaganda, Deception and the “War on Terror”’. In it, he wrote: 

Moreover, based upon UK-US communications in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, the Chilcot report also provides suggestive but highly significant evidence of a broader and covert geo-strategic policy, including action against Syria and Iran, and which was underpinned by a ‘close knit propaganda campaign’. 

Robinson also alludes to the Bush-Blair communications, post-9/11, that point to the destabilisation of Syria as a last resort, if all efforts to bring the country on board and to separate it from the Resistance Axis were to fail:

Bush-Blair communications, post-9/11

Fast forward to December 2024 and we witness the final fall of the Syrian capital, Damascus, after a rapid advance by the forces of terror under the control of Turkey and Israel, with the hidden hands of the UK and US controlling events behind the scenes. The fabricated ‘War on Terror’, given life by the tragic and US deep-state-orchestrated events of 9/11, culminated in the take-over of Syria by Terror. Al Qaeda now rules in Syria, leading ethnic cleansing pogroms against all minorities and Sunni Muslim communities who reject the dark-age policies of the Takfiri settler-alliance. 

The secular, inclusive Syria that resisted neocolonialism for its entire existence since its independence from the French Mandate in 1946 has now, temporarily at least, been thrown to the ravages of Empire — Turkish, Russian, Israel, US, UK, and the Arab Gulf States that are intrinsically linked with the US and Israel. 

Facing the irredeemable loss of Sykes-Picot, France and ‘Global Britain’ are scrambling to restore colonial order. The borders that were challenged by the rise of the Resistance Axis even prior to October 7th must be restored or redefined for these two waning colonial powers to sustain influence in the region.

French military is present in Syria; the Kurdish Contras have suggested that French troops could act as a buffer between the Erdogan neo-Ottoman expansion and the US/Israel-backed Kurdish autonomous region project. 

At the same time, the Al Qaeda General Authority for Land and Sea Ports in Syria have very recently signed a strategic memorandum of understanding with the French company CMA CGM to establish and operate “dry ports” in the Syrian-Jordanian free zone and the industrial zone of Adra, north-west of Damascus. CMA CGM also renewed their contract to modernise and expand the Syrian port of Lattakia for the next 30 years. 

France also has its former-mandate roots in the coastal region of ‘New Syria’ from Sykes-Picot days and almost certainly sees potential in restoring an independent state for the three million Alawites in Syria under French control. The Jolani (Ahmed Al Sharaa) ethnic cleansing and slaughter of the Alawites since the coup in December 2024 serves this purpose. 

The British, however, have taken a far more direct line to protect their interests in Syria post the international coup that installed Al Qaeda in the Presidential Palace. 

Global Britain Seizes the Opportunity to Restore Sykes-Picot Borders

On 12 May, former US Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford gave a talk to the Baltimore Council on Foreign Affairs: ‘Syrian Rebels Win — Now What?’ During the talk, he explains how, in 2023, he was invited by a “British Non-Governmental Organisation (NGO) which specialises in conflict resolution” to “help them bring this guy [Jolani] out of the terrorist world and into regular politics”. 

According to Ford, he made two trips with the British NGO in March and September 2023 and then, in January 2024, post-coup, he accompanied a British NGO to Damascus and met, again, with Jolani. This from Independent Arabia: 

Informed sources revealed to ‘Independent Arabia’ that the British organization that provided political support and training to Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa is the London-based Inter-Mediate. Former US Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford indicated earlier this month that he worked with the organization to advise al-Sharaa nearly two years before he overthrew the regime of Bashar al-Assad. 

Ford was coy about naming the British NGO, perhaps with good reason. A number of regional media outlets picked up the story and identified the organisation. 

Inter-Mediate (IM) was founded in 2011 by Jonathan Powell, who previously served as Chief of Staff to the former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who is recognised as the architect of the regime change war against Syria alongside George W. Bush. The role that Powell played in supporting Blair and the Weapons of Mass Destruction narratives that took Britain to war against Iraq is a well-documented one. 

The Spectator recently published an article in which it is stated:

[Powell] is one of the few senior officials responsible for the Iraq war who has managed a return to the corridors – and the sofas – of power. The historical record shows that he had doubts about Iraq’s WMDs, but thought Saddam Hussein had to go ‘because he was a ruthless dictator suppressing his people. 

This was, as Blair named it, “liberal interventionism”, which called for the West to “get actively involved in other people’s conflicts”. 

In November 2024, less than a month before the Al Qaeda coup in Syria, Keir Starmer invited Powell to serve as his National Security Advisor. Six days before Damascus fell, Powell left IM to take up his National Security Post under Starmer. Reports of Blair’s influence over Starmer have been rife since his election, so this decision could arguably have been presided over by Blair, following through on his Syria road-map. 

Co-founder and senior advisor of IM is none other than Martin Griffiths. In 2023, it was reported that IM benefits from a tight-knit connection with the MI6 (UK Military Intelligence) and the Foreign Office. 

Not only did IM receive funding from the UK Foreign Office an estimated £4 million from 2011-2020, there is hard evidence that Powell communicated the organisation’s MI6 links to Hillary Clinton in 2012 just after the start of the US/UK-led regime change operations against Syria.

Powell informed a senior Clinton aide in 2012 that IM “work closely with FCO [Foreign and Commonwealth Office], NSC [National Security Council] and SIS [Secret Intelligence Service] in London”. Powell informed Clinton that IM organises “secret channels between insurgents and governments”. He added that work had just begun in Syria, Yemen, Somalia and Burma. Powell convened with Clinton’s Deputy Chief of Staff, Jake Sullivan. Sullivan famously sent the email to Clinton in 2012: “Al Qaeda is on our side in Syria”. 

Not only did IM, an alleged NGO, receive funding from the British and other Governments, it is an organisation stocked with former MI6 operatives and military special forces. 

Therefore, it is clear that Powell’s role began with Tony Blair and extended throughout the British neocolonial war against Syria, ending with Starmer who presided, rather ignominiously, over the final implementation of the Jolani-Al Qaeda take over and the toppling of Assad. Powell’s role is to normalise the Al Qaeda Junta in public perception, to carry forward British colonial policies, and to secure Britain’s influence in the region for decades to follow. As Charabaty stated: 

With Israeli deterrence shattered on October 7 and Damascus driven into al-Jolani’s hands, Britain saw a chance to reclaim influence. If the US successfully weakens the resistance, the UK could entrench itself in Syria long-term, expand into parts of Iraq and possibly Egypt, where the Brotherhood long echoed British ties until Gaza’s martyrs redefined it by uniting under the Al Qassam brigade umbrella. 

In February 2025, The National reported on Powell’s below-radar meeting with the ‘New Syria’ administration led by former ISIS and Al Qaeda agent Jolani. It can be assumed that this was the trip that Ford mentions that took place in January. The report details the influence that the UK wields in Syria, post-Assad, through a complex of political connections, so-called charity operations, and a ‘well-networked’ returning diaspora. It is nothing new to those who have followed the British role in destabilising Syria since 2011. 

Powell’s brother, Lord Charles Powell, is a trustee of the Said Foundation, set up by British-Syrian businessman and philanthropist Wafic Said. According to The National, Mr Said met Jolani in Damascus during the January convergence of regime change/war protagonists to the Syrian capital. 

In 2018, I co-wrote a series of articles with author and journalist Whitney Webb that explored the ‘charity’ complex weaponised by the British against the Syrian Government. We covered the alliance between Ayman Asfari, a shadowy Syrian-British businessman with insider connections to the British regime and King Charles, and the Said Foundation: 

In May 2016, the Asfari Foundation (covered in part 1 of this series) teamed up with the Said Foundation to raise money for the Hands Up for Syria Appeal. The Asfari and Said Foundations matched the £3.997 million that was raised for ‘millions of young children’ deprived of an education during the seven-year conflict in Syria. Speakers at the event included then-British Prime Minister David Cameron; David Miliband — President and CEO of International Rescue Committee; and actress Cate Blanchett, UNHCR Goodwill Ambassador. Prince Charles sent a video message emphasizing the importance of education to the rebuilding of Syria.

The National points out that Powell’s connection to the Said Foundation afforded him extensive knowledge of Syria through the Foundation’s intelligence gathering. It is confirmed that Powell had established back channel contacts with Al Qaeda, rebranded as HTS, before it came to power. Those contacts were managed, conveniently, through IM. It is claimed that Powell met Jolani as far back as 2021, two years before Ford was invited to help groom the former ISIS terrorist. This is the same year that PBS Frontline ran their documentary The Jihadist. It was one of the first attempts to define Jolani as a political challenger rather than a sectarian terrorist proxy. 

Another suspected MI6 operative, in Damascus immediately after the coup, was Hamish de Bretton-Gordon. He visited the new Health Ministry and promoted the role of the CIA/MI6-incubated White Helmets in running the emergency services country-wide. This was despite the unaddressed accusations levied against the organisation of participating in the Al Qaeda-led crimes against the Syrian people. The crimes included organ trafficking and child abduction, the staging of chemical weapon attacks, theft, and murder. Instead, de Bretton-Gordon announced that “Britain is uniquely placed through the British-Syrian diaspora to make a real difference, and opening the British Embassy in Damascus cannot happen soon enough [emphasis added]”.

Screenshot of Tony Blair and Al Shibani interview in Davos 2025

French author and journalist Georges Malbrunot wrote an article for Le Figaro covering the IM involvement in the Jolani grooming campaign and the more recent attention given to ‘reformed’ Al Qaeda members of the New Syria Junta, including the caretaker Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, a founder of Al Qaeda in Syria.  According to Malbrunot, “In Damascus, an Inter Mediate employee speaking Arabic and Farsi, Lucy Stuart, is advising Mr. Chibani, according to a Syrian official who showed her business card”. 

Did Stuart, coached by Powell and British Intelligence services, arrange the rather uncomfortable interview of Shibani by Tony Blair at Davos? Blair glosses over the surge in ethnic cleansing and slaughter of Alawites, Christians and anti-Takfiri factions in Syria at the hands of HTS and their foreign mercenary affiliates. Is Blair marking his territory in Syria as the Machiavellian orchestrator of events that facilitated the rise of Al Qaeda to power? It certainly seems so. 

Charabaty also commented on the potential in ‘New Syria’, for the bolstering of Jordan, a long-term British/US vassal state in the region. A UK stronghold in Damascus could also stabilize or replace a collapsing Jordan, moving up Britain’s Arab command post to the heart of the Arab world and formerly a French colony turned Resistance strong-hold for decades.

Roya News photo of Powell’s meeting with Jordan’s King Abdullah and Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah II

This comment is reinforced by Powell’s 14 May visit to Jordan and audience with King Abdullah and the Crown Prince Hussein. During the meeting, the King emphasised the “deep-rooted ties” between the two countries that might lead to enhanced cooperation particularly in the defence sector. 

Britain was congratulated for maintaining stability in the region, but the complete opposite is true. Britain employed Orientalism to shape Western perception of the Middle East as backward and irrational, and to justify British colonialist ravages across all countries in which it secured influence. Britain’s legacy in the region is the birth of the Zionist project, which led to decades of bloodshed and instability.    

Jordan also expressed fears over the possible displacement of Palestinians presumably in the hope that the UK would be able to prevent the exodus of Palestinian refugees into Jordan, an idea floated by President Trump and the Zionist genocidaires.

It is worth noting that, in one regional media outlet, Jolani contended that Ford’s statements regarding his meetings with Jolani in 2023 onwards were “not true”. Quite why Jolani might deny the reports is not clear. Ford is known to be a longtime ally of the Syrian “death squads” and promoter of regime change in Syria. Ford fled Syria in 2011 after he was mobbed on a number of occasions by ordinary people who saw how he was inciting the “peaceful” protests across the country. 

It may be that Jolani is trying to conceal the obvious MI6 involvement in his rebranding and elevation to the unelected leadership of the country aligning with Israel and the collective West. The Syrian Presidency further indicated that the retired diplomat was part of a delegation from a British research and advisory organization [rather than IM]. 

Whatever the reason, the hands behind Jolani are now exposed in all their nefarious glory, and there is no doubt that Britain has led the Intelligence operations against Syria since the beginning. 

The British Military Capture of ‘New Syria’

I recently reported on the emergence of at least one British Private Military Contractor in Syria immediately after the fall of Damascus. Emerald Solutions slotted very neatly into supporting Jolani’s regime without once calling attention to the multiple crimes committed by Jolani and the terrorist factions under his command both post- and prior-Assad’s flight to Russia. This aligns with the Blair-Bush project to normalise relations with the Jolani terrorist leadership and military. 

This is to the point where, on 19 May, Britain welcomed the alleged formation of transitional justice and missing persons’ commissions in Syria. Relying on HTS to investigate their own crimes against the Syrian people since December 2024, and for the 14 years prior, is the same as relying on the Zionist regime to investigate the genocide of Palestinians in Gaza and the Occupied Territories since 1948. It is meaningless. In fact, since the British have renewed their interest and involvement in New Syria, the crimes of Jolani’s militias have steadily increased. 

Last week, on UK Column News, we looked into the visit of the British military attaché, Lt. Col. Charles Smith (posted to British Embassy Beirut), to Damascus. According to reports on the visit,  Britain is looking to secure defence and military cooperation with Al Qaeda. A cooperation that will be in favour of Israel and a way to prevent any Takfiri threat to Israeli national security in the future. It also gives Britain the opportunity to re-embed itself in the region, to redraw the Sykes-Picot lines to serve the foreign policy agendas of Greater Israel and the US/UK/Gulf State alliance in the region, to isolate Iran, and potentially to prevent Russian consolidation in the coastal region where the Levantine gas reserves lie.

It is perhaps no coincidence that Turkish-backed terrorist factions launched serious attacks on the Russian Hmeimim base shortly after the visit of Smith to Damascus. Britain’s historical animosity towards Russia has always been a driving factor for the destabilisation campaign against Syria, far more than the US. 

Trump’s Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is threatening the potential for an “epic” civil war in Syria, perhaps using the remaining Free Syrian Army factions and ISIS to challenge the Jolani leadership while protecting the US Kurdish Contra assets in the north-east. Is Britain positioning itself at the helm of any new military or political client state answering to the West? 

However events pan out in Syria, one thing is sure: Britain bears huge responsibility for every life lost in Syria since 2011  and in the preceding years that Britain was interfering in the internal affairs of a sovereign nation that refused to kneel to British imperialism and eliminated the Sykes-Picot lines with resistance against Greater Israel and Western craven meddling. 

As Rubio also said, “When Syria is unstable, the region becomes unstable”. The collective West has never shied away from instability in the region and have generated it deliberately on behalf of Israel. What Rubio really means is that Syria must be stabilised in a way that is commensurate with Israel’s national security. It must not be allowed to exist as the Resistance Axis central hub and land-bridge. It must become a Western client state, normalise with Israel, and sell out to the International Monetary Fund and Arab Gulf State bribes until it becomes another toothless and rudderless state in the region. 

As Lebanese journalist Marwa Osman has said: 

After years of fire and bloodshed, Syria is being offered a ‘lifeline’ by the same hands that tried to strangle it. The U.S. Treasury just graciously announced a 180-day suspension of Caesar Act sanctions … because apparently that’s how long it takes to completely hand over your sovereignty. This isn’t diplomacy. It’s asset recovery. The same West that failed to topple Syria militarily is now repossessing it through blackmail … and it just so happens they’ve been prepping al-Jolani for this starring role all along. And just in case it wasn’t clear: 180 days is the deadline: normalize or be re-sanctioned. Resistance or rent-a-state.

Jolani said in an interview he gave in 2015, “We want first to sever Iran’s hands (Resistance groups) in this region and then when it is necessary, we will drag war onto Iran’s soil, inside. Iran is sitting on a volcano that is about to explode [emphasis added]”. Jolani is a proven CIA-MI6-managed asset. His agenda is not his own, it is that of his handlers, so we should pay attention. 

For now, the Blair-Bush regime change is on track. Syria is being torn apart by the predator powers that have had this nation in their cross hairs since the creation of the Zionist settler state in the region. The Zionist project that was designed to drive a wedge between Egypt and Syria to prevent any semblance of pan-Arabist ambition and freedom from Western resource-grab. We are at a tipping point in history that could go either way. Myriam Charabaty reminds us that: “… today, the entire global world order is fighting against a group of organized people who are convinced they will inevitably liberate their people with their blood and stand with the righteous and refuse to be slaves to anyone [emphasis added]”.

As renowned historian Ilan Pappé has said, the region is experiencing a long night. The reason that the Zionist alliance is so brutal and so accelerated in its advance is because it has seen the end coming. The project is not working; it is being dismantled from within and from outside by a number of ‘discrete processes’. Should these discrete processes unite, they will become a powerful force, perhaps capable of ending the Zionist project and its branches of proxy terrorism in the region and beyond. 

A world of equity for Palestinians may seem a pipe dream with the slaughter that is being live-streamed into our consciousness on an hourly basis but if the Resistance refuses to relinquish this dream, we should also remain steadfast. “Zionism will collapse and Sykes Picot will collapse [emphasis added]”.

These words from Palestinian author Hebh Jamal are a reminder for us all: 

We don’t get to opt out. Not because we are stronger than despair, or immune to hopelessness, but because the cost of our silence is paid in lives we love. Because we are part of something that is being erased, and if we stop naming it, if we stop screaming for it, it disappears faster.

We must, at the very least, stand on the right side of history, and not with war criminals like Tony Blair.

Reprinted with author’s permission from UKColumn.

Above: the Lateran Treaty, establishing Vatican City. The financing of the Italian clergy represents one of the most insidious and sophisticated tools through which the state, particularly the Italian state (but also supranational institutions that view the Church as merely a means of social engineering), has gradually subjected the Catholic Church to its own interests. The Church…

Source

Pope Leo XIV this week appointed Monsignor Renzo Pegoraro — longtime chancellor of the Pontifical Academy for Life involved in a controversy over his 2022 comment suggesting contraception could be permissible in certain cases — as the academy’s new president.

Msgr. Pegoraro succeeds Archbishop Vincenzo Paglia, who became president in 2016. Msgr. Pegoraro studied in Padua and Rome, where he obtained a licentiate in moral theology and a diploma in advanced bioethics, according to the Academy for Life website. He was president of the European Association of Centers of Medical Ethics from 2010 to 2013, and he has served as a bioethics lecturer at the Theological Faculty of Trivento.

Pope John Paul II established the Pontifical Academy for Life in 1994, charging it with the task of “defense and promotion of the value of human life and of the dignity of the person,” according to its Vatican profile. Its main actions are to study problems related to promoting and defending human life; assist, through Catholic initiatives, the pro-life formation of persons; and inform Church leaders, the media, other organizations, and civil society in the findings of its research.

REACH PRO-LIFE PEOPLE WORLDWIDE! Advertise with LifeNews to reach hundreds of thousands of pro-life readers every week. Contact us today.

In a statement posted to the Academy’s website, Msgr. Pegoraro thanked Pope Leo for his new appointment.

“The work carried out over these past years alongside H.E. Monsignor Vincenzo Paglia and previously with H.E. Monsignor Ignacio Carrasco de Paula has been both fascinating and stimulating, in line with the operational and thematic guidelines of the late Pope Francis,” he added.

Msgr. Pegoraro’s appointment has raised reactions of concern among Catholics amid reports of controversial comments he made in 2022 about assisted suicide and contraception.

According to a December 2022 article in The Wall Street Journal, Msgr. Pegoraro suggested that the use of contraception might be morally permissible in a certain case.

In November 2022, about 24 Catholic theologians and others held a conference in Rome in efforts to defend and explain Church teaching that contraception is a grave evil, articulated strongly in St. Pope Paul VI’s encyclical Humanae Vitae. The conference came together amid debate in recent years among Catholic theologians on the issue and other topics such as divorce, according to the Journal.

The outlet did not specify if Msgr. Pegoraro attended the conference, but did quote him commenting to article author Francis Rocca on the topic at hand:

“The letter of the law can change, but not to invalidate it but rather to deepen its meaning and promote the values at stake,” said Msgr. Renzo Pegoraro, rector of the Pontifical Academy for Life. The rule against contraception “signals values that must be preserved in married life—in particular the sense of sexuality and the transmission of life—but it is also true that other values worth protecting may be present in the situation that the family is experiencing.”

For instance, Msgr. Pegoraro said, contraception might be permissible “in the case of a conflict between the need to avoid pregnancy for medical reasons and the preservation of a couple’s sex life.”

Following his appointment as president of the academy, Rocca, now a Vatican EWTN editor, posted to his X account recalling this interview. Providing further context to the exchange, Rocca also shared a link to an accessible version of the full 2022 Wall Street Journal article.

Replying on X to a report of Msgr. Pegoraro’s contraception and assisted suicide comments, New York-based Catholic bioethicist Charlie Camosy called for prayers for the academy’s new president, writing: “Let us pray for a changed mind and heart in such an important leader.”

Msgr. Pegoraro was also involved in a controversial debate relating to assisted suicide, euthanasia, and the lesser of two evils in 2022, when he weighed in as the Italian parliament considered legalizing assisted suicide. According to a February 2022 La Croix International article, the parliament was caught between either legalizing assisted suicide or abolishing a prohibition on “murder of a consenting person” in such a way that would open the door to euthanasia. Msgr. Pegoraro at the time said that neither option “represents the Catholic position.”

However, a law will be passed regardless, he said, continuing, “And of the two possibilities, assisted suicide is the one that most restricts abuses because it would be accompanied by four strict conditions: the person asking for help must be conscious and able to express it freely, have an irreversible illness, experience unbearable suffering and depend on life-sustaining treatment such as a respirator.”

La Croix posed the question of whether the Church is opting for the lesser of two evils.

Msgr. Pegoraro commented, “Rather, to make good of the better one. It is a question of seeing which law can limit evil.”

He emphasized that the Church condemns both assisted suicide and euthanasia. He said that the main question at hand in this situation, however, “is about knowing how the Church can participate in the discussion in a pluralist society.”

“Obviously, the ideal would be that assisted suicide and euthanasia be prohibited,” he said, “But I believe that today we must agree to discuss laws that we know will differ from the Church’s morality.”

According to the Academy for Life article announcing Msgr. Pegoraro’s new appointment as president, he said he plans to “continue working along the lines of the themes and methodology developed in recent years, enhancing the specific expertise of our broad and distinguished international and interreligious group of Academicians.”

“I particularly highlight the themes of Global Bioethics, dialogue with scientific disciplines through the transdisciplinary approach promoted by Pope Francis, artificial intelligence and biotechnologies, and the promotion of respect for and the dignity of human life in all its stages,” he said. “It will also be important to further enhance the work of the entire staff at the Central Headquarters, now located in the Vatican’s San Callisto complex.”

Palazzo San Callisto is a Vatican-owned property in Rome’s Trastevere neighborhood and an extraterritorial property of the Holy See that was established by the 1929 Lateran Treaty between the Vatican and Italy. Located near the Basilica of Santa Maria, the Palazzo San Callisto houses several key institutions of the Roman Curia and international Catholic organizations and includes offices, chapels, and conference facilities.

LifeNews Note: McKenna Snow writes for CatholicVote, where this column originally appeared.

The post Pope Leo XIV Appoints Controversial New Pontifical Academy for Life President appeared first on LifeNews.com.

Among the traditional titles with which the pope is honoured is that of “Patriarch of the West”, which dates back to the first centuries of Christianity. This title was abandoned by Benedict XVI in 2006 but, at the behest of Pope Francis, it curiously reappeared in the Annuario Pontificio of 2024. What is the meaning […]

The post Leo XIV: Patriarch of the West? appeared first on Voice of the Family.

A vandal who appeared to be a UCLA student recently spraypainted — in broad daylight — several pro-life signs set up on campus by pro-life organization Justice For All.

Justice For All published a video of a young man wearing a “UCLA Law” baseball cap using  black spraypaint to cover images of unborn babies and pro-life messages. Onlookers — including one who said he himself did not agree with the pro-life messages — asked him to stop, but he ignored their requests.

“We’re having a discussion,” the onlooker can be heard saying in the recording.

REACH PRO-LIFE PEOPLE WORLDWIDE! Advertise with LifeNews to reach hundreds of thousands of pro-life readers every week. Contact us today.

The College Fix reported that “a campus source” said UCLA’s student pro-life club, Live Action, had invited Justice for All to host an event on campus “centered on promoting peaceful dialogue between pro-life and pro-choice people, and building common ground for dialogue.”

According to a Justice for All Instagram post, the same vandal had also stolen some of the organization’s pro-life signs during an event in 2023, but he has not yet been found by police. The organization also added that it has filed a police report, and it plans to press charges for the vandalism and the theft.

“Thankfully, most pro-choice people are not like this,” Justice for All added. “They are respectful and willing to dialogue and wouldn’t think to do something like this … Most of our outreaches are peaceful, and we are able to have respectful conversations with those on the other side. Sometimes that’s not the case though.”

Justice for All continued, “We care about this student which is why we want him held accountable. This behavior is unacceptable.”

According to The College Fix, Bekah Dyer, a Justice for All staff member, condemned the vandalism on Instagram.

“He stole signs in 2023. Wasn’t caught,” she reportedly wrote. “We have his picture and videos of that crime. Now he’s vandalizing signs this year. When will this stop? @uclapd.”

LifeNews Note: Hannah Hiester writes for CatholicVote, where this column originally appeared.

The post Pro-Abortion Vandal Defaces Pro-Life Signs at UCLA appeared first on LifeNews.com.

Kritarchy Is Taking Over America

Paul Craig Roberts

Remember a year ago when the US BORDER WAS WIDE OPEN and vast numbers of immigrant-invaders were being helped into our country by the Democrats?  NO FEDERAL JUDGE ANYWHERE DID ANYTHING ABOUT THE TOTAL FAILURE OF THE DEMOCRATS TO DEFEND US BORDERS.

NOW THAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS TRYING TO SEND THE ILLEGALS BACK, THERE IS NO END OF JUDGES AT WORK PREVENTING THE EJECTION OF THOSE WHO ENTERED ILLEGALLY.

The executive branch, which had been rising in power since the George W. Bush/Dick Cheney regime, is now unable to perform its lawfully required duty to protect America’s border without appealing to the Supreme Court for help against a politicized anti-American Democrat political operative in a judicial robe.  Large numbers of these despicable creatures have arisen to deny that the President of the United States has any powers of his office.  He must do what they say.

This is a massive change from the George W. Bush regime when President Bush declared his power to hold US citizens indefinitely on suspicion alone without evidence or due process or law.  The judiciary had nothing to say.

This is again a massive change from President Obama’s assertion that he had the power to execute American citizens on suspicion alone without due process of law.  The judiciary had nothing to say.

It is only when a president exercises his clear authority to deport illegal entrants into the US  that the judiciary opens its corrupt mouth.  I have no idea why MAGA-Americans and the Trump administration put up with an utterly corrupt anti-American, anti-white, collection of despicable robed tyrants.  Why aren’t they deported?  President Lincoln deported a US Representative who disagreed with Lincoln’s invasion of the Confederacy.

In the first months of the Trump administration we  have seen time and again judges assuming they are God exercising rule over the electorate.

This time, and there will be several more by tomorrow, Trump is appealing to the US Supreme Court for the judiciary’s permission for him to exercise the powers of his office.  In an office somewhere in the 50 states a robed political activist has ruled that Trump cannot deport illegals unless DHS (Department of Homeland Security) first satisfies an onerous set of procedures invented by the district court political activist “judge” to assess any potential claim under the Convention Against Torture.  https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-asks-supreme-court-to-intervene-in-south-sudan-deportations-case-5864170?utm_source=RTNews&src_src=RTNews&utm_campaign=rtbreaking-2025-05-27-5&src_cmp=rtbreaking-2025-05-27-5&utm_medium=email&est=fq2OxY9vW3FEKgiOCnCy8Qs2q2RkVZgJt0KlBC6rg67kOyzaqBPsgA== 

Tell me, MAGA-Americans, how the Trump administration can deport millions of illegal entrants under these conditions.  It cannot be done.

I conclude that no more than  perhaps a thousand or two of illegal entrants will ever be deported, which means that American white European ethnicity is being watered down and America  is being transformed into a multicultural Tower of Babel devoid of a common belief system and unity.  Essentially, America is being erased.  

The MAGA Revolution has been brought to heel by the judiciary which is enforcing a Tower of Babel upon America.  

Democrats recruit immigrant-invaders, give them citizenship.  Then Harvard gives them law degrees. They set up a law practice to front for a smuggling operation that sneaks illegals into the country for Democrats to give citizenship to. 

 Here is one story:

https://www.breitbart.com/immigration/2025/05/25/fbi-breaks-pakistani-migrant-smuggling-network-in-texas/ 

On January 8, 2025, we answered many of your questions with an article entitled Why Are Bond Yields Rising? Since then, bond yields initially fell but have recently risen back to early January levels. Unsurprisingly, our email boxes are again filled with the same questions we got in early January.

This article presents a different perspective on the question of why bond yields are rising.  We focus on the difference between narratives and fundamentals. However, we briefly review the current situation with Treasury yields before starting.

Fundamental Bond Model

The two graphs below, updated from the January article, illustrate the strong historical correlation between ten-year bond yields and our model, which is based on inflation, inflation expectations, and economic activity. Currently, the fair value yield of the ten-year UST is 3.94%, approximately 64 basis points below the actual yield. The gap between the fair value and the bond’s yield is technically referred to as the term premium. The term 'premium' quantifies all non-model factors that impact yields. Today, the divergence can largely be explained by deficits and tariff-related inflation concerns, i.e., the current narratives.  

The following graph provides historical context for the relationship between yields and inflation. Yields jumped in 2021 and 2022 as inflation rose to a peak of 9%. Since then, inflation has fallen rapidly and is nearing the Fed’s 2% target. However, bond yields remain near their highs, trading in a wide range spanning 3.75% to 5.00%.

Day Traders, Narratives, and Fundamentals

Fundamentals, such as the price-to-earnings ratio for stocks or the term premium for bonds, are meaningless for day traders. Narratives explaining why markets rise or fall are equally worthless to day traders. Day traders focus on minute-by-minute imbalances between buyers and sellers. They devise trading tools to quantify how said imbalances may impact prices. Their work is incredibly technical. Most successful short-term traders do not care about market narratives and do zero fundamental analysis. The impact of these traders is most considerable on very short-term intraday prices.

Looking beyond the day traders, narratives often determine the short to medium-term price trends. These narratives, which can last days, weeks, months, or longer, are stories or themes that shape how traders and investors interpret and react to changes in the financial markets. They simplify complex topics into easily digestible explanations. Sometimes, market narratives accurately explain why markets are moving in one direction or the other. However, other times they prove false. Whether grounded in hard data or not, market narratives can perpetuate market trends by shaping shorter-term investor behaviors. Furthermore, as narratives gain popularity, they are amplified by the media and, more recently, social media platforms.

Moving out further, fundamental-based investors focus on hard data and facts. At its core, fundamental analysis enables investors to determine the intrinsic value of an asset or market, and therefore assess whether it is overvalued or undervalued. While fundamental analysis focuses on objective data, its interpretation can vary widely. Investors grounded in fundamentals are willing to look beyond the second-by-second trading of day traders and the narratives that move assets for weeks or months at a time. They are comfortable buying an asset at what they believe is a discount to its fair value.

Fundamentals vs Narratives

As active investors, we strike a balance between the short-term impact of narratives and the longer-term performance driven by fundamentals.

This is incredibly difficult in the stock market, as stocks can stay well above or below their intrinsic value for years. Thus, stock narratives tend to result in longer-lasting trends than bond market narratives.

To better appreciate this, consider the first graph below, which shows the correlation between the CAPE10 for the S&P 500 and the one-year returns following each monthly valuation. The chart encompasses 75 years of data. As we highlight, we can expect a one-year performance range of approximately plus or minus 20% at current valuations. Moreover, with an R-squared of .0277, we have no confidence in that forecast. 

The following graph shows that fundamentals are much more predictive of returns over 10-year periods. According to this model, the current expectations for the S&P 500's annualized ten-year return range from -0.50% to +3.50%. Not only is the range of expectations tight, but we are much more confident, as evidenced by the R-squared of 0.4033.

If you are a buy-and-hold long-term investor, the paltry expected returns that stocks offer over the next ten years should provide caution. However, the first graph informs active traders that the sequence of the annual returns, which comprises the ten-year total return, is difficult to predict. Narrative and sentiment will determine that sequence.

In the bond market, narratives also considerably impact yields, but they don’t tend to last nearly as long. This is due to the interconnectedness between yields and economic activity. Higher interest rates provide less incentive to invest or consume. Thus, as we have repeatedly seen throughout history, periods of above-trend interest rates have been associated with slow or negative economic growth, and vice versa.

Feeding The Narratives

Narratives typically need a steady diet of supporting news to sustain themselves. To feed the beast, so to speak, the market exaggerates some news and downplays other news. 

The recent round of Treasury auctions is a perfect example of how the current bond bearish narrative shapes the way news is reported.

The 20-Year Doom Auction

The bearish narratives were in overdrive after the Moody’s credit downgrade and the larger-than-expected “Big Beautiful” government spending bill. But narratives always need to be fed. The bearish bond narrative ate on May 21, 2025, with a Treasury 20-year auction deemed “terrible” and “horrible” by some pundits. Some interpreted the auction as an obvious sign that the Treasury was struggling to fund itself.

Might those views be a bit of an exaggeration?

Some fear-mongers pointed out the “large” auction tail. The tail is the difference between the auction yield and the yield before the auction. A large tail can mean insufficient demand for the auctioned bonds. As the graph below shows, the recent red tail is not that abnormal. Moreover, the size of the tail is volatile in both directions. This is partly because the 20-year bond is not as widely regarded as a market benchmark as other maturities.

Also, indirect buyers were allotted 82% of the auction bonds. These are primarily central banks. So, foreign demand was strong despite the anti-dollar narrative claiming that central banks are selling US Treasuries in size?

Indeed, the auction could have been better, but the media exaggerated the outcome to feed the bearish bond narrative.

The Unseen 10-Year Auction

Two weeks before the “horrendous” 20-year auction, a very good 10-year auction was met with little fanfare.

For context, the 10-year Treasury is more closely followed than the 20-year and significantly more heavily traded. Importantly, it is a key economic rate, meaning it has a substantially greater financial impact than the 20-year yield. Lastly, bear in mind the 10-year auction was $42 billion, compared to the relatively small $16 billion 20-year auction.

Despite being much larger than the 20-year bond, the 10-year auction was met with strong demand, as seen in the graph below. Primary dealers (direct bidders), the backstop for Treasury auctions, account for the third-lowest allotment since at least 2008 at 8.9%. This signifies that demand from other sources was robust.

Second, there were bids for 2.6x as many bonds as were being auctioned. The average of the last six auctions was 2.4x. Furthermore, the ratio was at the high end of the range of the last ten-plus years.

On May 6th, despite the outstanding 10-year auction, bonds eked out a small gain. The meh 20-year auction and the bearish narratives it fed pushed prices significantly lower. Furthermore, the fear emanating from the 20-year auction sent shockwaves to the stock market, which, as circled below, fell rapidly following the announcement of the auction results.

Debunking The Deficit Narrative

We believe the hefty term premium is primarily a function of the deficit narratives spreading through the bond market.

History has shown that government spending is often unproductive. Almost all economists agree that the US government has a negative multiplier on its debt. This means that each dollar of government spending reduces long-term economic growth. Therefore, higher deficits lead to lower growth and lower inflation. While the market worries about the sheer size of bond issuance required to meet the government’s funding needs, it overlooks the potential negative impact on economic growth and inflation. One side of the story feeds the narrative, the other doesn’t.

To help quantify the economic impact of large deficits, we share the graphic below from Rising National Debt Will Cause Significant Economic Damage by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, May 2025.

The graphic below from the report shows that by 2070, the debt-to-GDP ratio may surpass 200%. Assuming that proves correct, which is a big assumption, it would still be below Japan’s current ratio of 265%. Moreover, Japan’s economic growth has slowed to a crawl. Their GDP is the same today as it was in 2018. Further consider that its population is shrinking, and the yen is not the world's reserve currency. Japanese 10- and 30-year yields are 1.60% and 3.10%. S&P and Moody’s rate them a notch below the US at A+ and A1, respectively.

Summary

We are active investors, which entails walking the fine line between narratives and fundamentals. Whether we agree with the prevailing narratives or not, we must comply with them, as they can significantly impact prices. However, we must also recognize and seize opportunities when we believe the narrative has stretched the price too far from its fundamentals.

 Such is the dilemma we face today with bond yields. If we are correct that the bond market is overreacting to deficits, we may see a sharp drop in yields. However, if the current narrative persists, current yield levels or even higher yields may persist.

Our deficit has been growing for decades. We believe this is a critical reason economic and productivity growth has weakened for over 40 years. We have little doubt that if this continues, it will someday become highly problematic. However, that day is not today!

The post Narratives vs. Fundamentals: Battle In The Bond Market appeared first on RIA.

A reader of our Daily Commentary asked how we measure corporate credit spreads in light of the Moody's downgrade of the USA credit rating. Specifically, "Without having a AAA benchmark to calculate the credit spread of corporate bonds against, what other measure can help me assessing stress in the corporate bond market." First its important to note that two of the three major credit rating firms already had the US credit rating at AA before Moody's downgrade. Second, regardless of the downgrade almost all investors still consider US Treasury securities as risk free. Therefore credit spreads versus Treasuries remain a viable stick to measure credit conditions for corporations.

However, if you think otherwise about the USA being risk-free there are other ways of assessing potential stress in the corporate credit market. In addition to measuring spreads to Treasuries, most corporate bond traders also focus on intra-rating spreads. For example, our graph below shows the yield spread between AA rated corporate bonds and junk-rated B corporate bonds. As it shows, the spread between B and AA widened briefly in April as the tariffs were announced. Since then the spread has reverted back toward its lows. Simply, upon assessing the credit spreads whether using US Treasuries or higher rated corporate bonds, corporate junk spreads show no stress.

What To Watch Today

Earnings

Economy

Market Trading Update

Yesterday, we stated that the market was overbought heading into last week and that a pullback was likely. We have previously noted that there was a lot of support building at the 200-DMA, where the 100 and 20-DMA had now converged. Unsurprisingly, news over the weekend that Trump was postponing tariffs on the EU sent stocks roaring higher, confirming an initial positive test of support. While the rally was indeed bullish, with buyers showing up across the entire market complex, last week's sell-off did little to reduce the short-term overbought conditions of the market.

This afternoon, we will get earnings from Nvidia (NVDA), the last of the "Magnificent 7" stocks, signaling the end of Q1 earnings season. The options market is expecting a 7.5% swing in the share price depending on how Nvidia reports. As shown, Nvidia has a reasonably high bar to hurdle in revenue and earnings growth. However, the recent downturn in the stock market has reduced expectations somewhat. The question will be whether it was enough.

Lastly, as we move into June, we will lose support of earnings announcements and, most importantly, corporate share repurchases. As that buyer fades from the market until the end of July, the market may struggle somewhat, particularly with economic data still showing signs of weakness.

The bottom line is that we remain somewhat cautious about the market and are holding higher levels of cash despite Monday's rally. Once we reverse the current overbought conditions to some degree we will begin adding back to equity exposure accordingly.

Industrials Are The Hot Sector

As the graphic below from SimpleVisor shows, Industrials now have the highest relative analysis score of all the sectors versus the S&P 500. Despite a slump in inbound port traffic and slowing in the rail and trucking industry, most other sub-sectors within industrials are trading well. The second graphic, showing the ten largest stocks in the XLI ETF, highlights that aerospace companies are leading the way. Positive earnings and relatively good news on the tariff front for their specific industries are helping those companies outperform the market. The only company of the ten that is oversold versus the market is Union Pacific, a railroad freight company.

The Stealth Bear Market

Is this a “stealth” bear market? Of course, you may be asking yourself what I mean by that.

Historically, bear markets have tended to be pretty evident, as highlighted in the chart below. These bear markets are often more protracted affairs that lead to investors developing profoundly negative sentiment towards markets. This article will use a weekly moving average crossover to identify “corrections” and “bear markets.” While our definition may not “jive” with the mainstream narrative, the reasoning will be evident momentarily.

When the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term, a “sell signal” occurs. That trigger suggests that investors should reduce equity risk in portfolios. When that signal reverses, investors should increase equity risk. Since 1995, the weekly indicator has only given three “false” signals. However, those signals were quickly reversed as the bull market continued, doing little harm to investors’ total returns. The signals warned investors of critical downturns to reduce equity exposure and avoid more significant capital destruction.

READ MORE...

Tweet of the Day

“Want to achieve better long-term success in managing your portfolio? Here are our 15-trading rules for managing market risks.”

Please subscribe to the daily commentary to receive these updates every morning before the opening bell.

If you found this blog useful, please send it to someone else, share it on social media, or contact us to set up a meeting.

The post Assessing Credit Spreads After The USA Downgrade appeared first on RIA.