A mother and her teenage daughter face felony charges after performing an at-home abortion and burying the potentially viable unborn baby in their backyard to conceal the act from the girl’s father.

Susquehanna Regional Police charged Shannon Noelle Jones, 50, on Wednesday with endangering the welfare of children, corruption of minors and criminal conspiracy to conceal the death of a child.

The investigation began when a witness reported that the teen, who was pregnant, had attempted to obtain a clinical abortion but was told she was too far along in her pregnancy. Pennsylvania law prohibits clinical abortions after the 23rd week of pregnancy.

According to court documents, Jones purchased abortion-inducing drug online after her daughter was unable to obtain a surgical abortion. The teen, identified only as a juvenile due to her age, allegedly took the abortion pill at their home, resulting in the death of her unborn baby, a boy estimated at 19 weeks and six days gestation. The coroner’s report listed the cause of death as premature fetal death, with the manner undetermined.

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Pro-life advocates expressed horror at the case, emphasizing the humanity of the unborn child and saying the tragedy underscores the devastating consequences of treating unborn babies as disposable

A 19-week-old baby is fully formed, with a beating heart and the capacity to feel pain. This was a life, not a choice to be buried in secret.

Court records reveal the teen told a friend the baby was “still moving” after the induced abortion, a detail that has further fueled outrage among pro-life groups. The mother and daughter allegedly placed the baby’s body in a box and buried the boy in their backyard to hide the act from the teen’s father, who was unaware of the pregnancy.

The case has reignited debates over abortion laws in Pennsylvania, where protections for unborn children are a focal point for pro-life advocates.

Police uncovered the buried remains following the witness’s tip, leading to the arrests. The teen was charged as a juvenile, while Lee faces adult felony charges. Both are awaiting court proceedings, with Jones’s preliminary hearing scheduled for later this month.

The case has drawn attention to the dangers of unregulated abortion drugs, which pro-life groups know endanger both women and their unborn children.

The Lancaster County District Attorney’s Office is prosecuting the case, which has sparked calls from pro-life organizations for stricter enforcement of abortion regulations and greater outreach to support pregnant women in crisis.

The post Woman Helps Daughter Kill Her Unborn Baby, Buries Baby in Backyard to Hide From Father appeared first on LifeNews.com.

New York pro-life leaders are urging Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul to protect the vulnerable and veto a bill that would legalize assisted suicide.

Bishop Robert Brennan of the Diocese of Brooklyn told The Tablet in a June 10 report how vetoing the bill, called the Medical Aid in Dying (MAID) Act, would be consistent with the steps Hochul has taken to increase suicide prevention resources in the state, where the numbers of such deaths have reached crisis levels.

“This is where we’re going to try to be hopeful with the governor; she’s given indications that she would sign it, but she’s taking it under consideration – well, I hope she’ll take it under consideration in a way that’s consistent with her bold actions in terms of suicide prevention,” the bishop remarked in a Current Events interview.

ACTION ALERT: Tell Governor Kathy Hochul to veto the dangerous assisted suicide bill.

He noted that it sends “a very mixed message” to say “there are times when life is not worth living,” and asked, “What messages are you sending to somebody who is suffering severe crises?”

Cardinal Timothy Dolan, archbishop of New York, has spoken out similarly in recent weeks. He wrote in a May 29 op-ed for The Wall Street Journal that a state that has worked so much to prevent suicides in its communities should not be simultaneously trying to legalize physician-assisted suicide. He wrote that he prays that Hochul will “step up to protect human life” and defeat the bill.

The New York Senate passed the bill 35-27 on June 9, sending it to Hochul. Following that vote, Cardinal Dolan reiterated his stance in a June 11 X post, writing, “I hope that our Governor Hochul, who has been very strong in helping those suffering through the mental health crisis, does the courageous thing and vetoes it!”

New York State Catholic Conference Executive Director Dennis Poust told The Tablet that Hochul “has made access to mental health care a hallmark of her tenure as governor” and that the bill undermines her suicide prevention efforts.

The New York Alliance Against Assisted Suicide warned that assisted suicide especially endangers people with disabilities and that legalizing the practice sends “a dangerous societal message that their lives are less valuable,” according to The Tablet.

The Alliance warned, “When support systems fail, insurance coverage is uneven, and ableism pervades our institutions, what looks like ‘choice’ can quickly become pressure.”

From the physician’s perspective, the bill also violates the Hippocratic oath to “do no harm,” as the president of the Catholic Medical Association’s Finger Lakes Guild, Dr. Thomas Carroll, told The Tablet. 

Legalizing assisted suicide “undermines the very purpose of medicine,” Carroll said, “and it risks changing our role fundamentally from caregiver to death dealer.”

When the bill advanced June 9, Poust issued a statement about the dark tipping point New York has brought itself to and about who can stop it from falling over the edge.

“For the first time in its history, New York is on the verge of authorizing doctors to help their patients commit suicide,” Poust said. “Make no mistake — this is only the beginning, and the only person standing between New York and the assisted suicide nightmare unfolding in Canada is Governor Hochul.”

Canada began its Medical Assistance in Dying (MAiD) program in 2016 with several restrictions, which belied the threat of legalizing euthanasia.

Within mere years, MAiD eligibility has been expanded so dramatically that it has become the country’s fifth-leading cause of death.

The lives of Canadians who aren’t suffering from terminal illnesses have also been at stake. In 2021 the MAiD program expanded its eligibility to people suffering from non-terminal illnesses.

In a heartbreaking testimony shared in March 2025, Canadian citizen Christopher Lyon spoke about how his father had been suicidal for years and the country’s MAiD regime merely accommodated his death.

“When MAiD came along, it was the perfect flattery. It’s telling him suicide is okay,” Lyon said in the interview with anti-MAiD activist Amanda Achtman. “It’s telling him it’s dignity, it’s somehow even beautiful.”

Lyon’s father, who didn’t have a terminal illness, was eligible to apply for MAiD  because he suffered chronically from arthritis and diabetes. He was euthanized at age 77.

In November 2024, Quebec enacted a law that enables people with diagnoses like dementia to be euthanized without their consent if they have made a request for it some months or years in advance.

LifeNews Note: McKenna Snow writes for CatholicVote, where this column originally appeared.

The post Pro-Life Leaders tell NY Gov. Kathy Hochul to Veto Assisted Suicide Bill appeared first on LifeNews.com.

Will War Be the Hallmark of the Trump Administration?

Paul Craig Roberts

Iran has responded to Israel’s blatant attack in the weakest way possible–an appeal to the United Nations.  The attack killed the Iranian commander of the Revolutionary Guards, the deputy chief of the army and several scientists, destroyed facilities and residential housing.  

Washington disavows any responsibility for Israel’s act of war, but was quick to assure its Israeli master that the US would protect Israel from Iranian “aggression” should Iran respond to the attack.  Washington quickly turned Israel’s aggression into an act of self-defense with Israeli puppet House Speaker Mike Johnson affirming “Israel’s right to self-defense:  “Israel IS right–and has a right–to defend itself!”  Another Israeli puppet, House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers, denounced Iran–the country attacked– as “the aggressor.”  Washington’s message to Iran is that retaliation against the Israeli attack will be considered aggression against Israel and the US.  Having been indoctrinated by years of the “war on terror” narrative, the US population is ready for war with Iran.

President Trump, Israel’s prime puppet, said that he knew of the planned strikes in advance and that the United States will defend Israel. As President Trump knew, did not intervene, and did not warn Iran, Washington does have responsibility for the attack.

The Iranians are shooting off their mouths but not weapons.

I blame the leaders of Russia, China, and Iran.  A mutual security agreement between the three countries would bring peace to the Middle East, Ukraine and Europe, and Asia.  Israel is not going to attack Iran if it means real war with Russia and China.  Is it lack of vision or plain stupidity that is responsible for the lack of a mutual defense treaty?

Where were Iran’s air defenses?  Did Putin forbid Iran from using the Russian S-400 air defense system against Israel?  How was Iran caught off guard when news reports indicated an attack was coming?  Why do Arabs and Iranians sit on their butts and allow Israel and the US to always have the initiative and to knock them off one by one? Are they stupid or afraid to resist?  

When Israel invaded Gaza, it was a perfect time for Iran to unleash its missiles on Israel and for Hezbollah to invade Israel.  Instead, Iran stupidly demonstrated to Israel that its missiles could penetrate the US-built Iron Dome without doing any damage to Israel, thus gratuitously giving away Iran’s strategic advantage.  Hezbollah sat on its butt and was decapitated by Israel.  Next the US and Russia conspired in the overthrow of Syria, thereby permitting Israel’s expansion into southern Syria. The last remaining Arab fighting force is the small band of Houthis in Yemen. 

Iran has the capability to seriously damage Israel and to wipe out US bases and carriers in the region.  But Iran probably figures that if it uses its military capability successfully, the embarrassment to the US could result in a US nuclear attack on Iran.  The only thing that could prevent such an attack would be a Russian-Chinese announcement that their nuclear umbrella covers Iran.  But neither the Russian or Chinese government would take this step.  

The conclusion seems to be that the destruction of the Muslim states will continue until the Middle East is either turned into Greater Israel or into an American neo-colonial empire.

Far from being a peace president, war will be the hallmark of the Trump administration.

What we have witnessed with Washington’s orchestrations of wars that destroyed Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Syria, and Lebanon and now target Iran, and with Washington and Europe’s support of Israel’s genocide of the Palestinians, is the complete absence of morality in the Western World.  The West is capable of unleashing any calamity from pandemics to nuclear war.  The absence of honesty on this point ensures that it will happen.

Having Eviscerated Russian War Doctrine Putin Now Brags on the Superiority of Russia’s Nuclear Weapons

Paul Craig Roberts

If Putin had not been a victim of his ridiculous belief that conflict can be avoided by turning the other cheek, and instead had been prepared to quickly and decisively demonstrate the cost of initiating conflict with Russia, we would not be at the point at which Putin has to reassure the Russian people that Russia’s nuclear weapons are the last line of defense.

Putin was caught off guard by Washington’s coup in Ukraine.  He stupidly responded with the Minsk Agreement and allowed himself to be deceived for eight years while Washington in plain view built and equipped a large Ukrainian army.  He stupidly refused the two Donbas independent republics’ appeal to accept them back into Russia like Crimea.  Putin’s refusal left the Russian peoples stuck into Ukraine by the Soviet government open to invasion and slaughter by the US trained and equipped army.  At the last minute it dawned on Putin that he had to intervene, but as he had made no preparation he lacked sufficient military resources and made no real effort to mobilize them.  Instead, he undertook not an invasion of Ukraine, but a Limited Military Operation to expel the Ukrainian force from the Russian territories.  

By failing to be prepared to decisively deal with a dangerous situation before the West had time to get involved and escalate the conflict, Putin created an ever-widening war that would have spun out of control if Putin had not declared the irresponsible attack on Russia’s strategic triad a “terrorist act,” not an act of war.

In other words, Putin chose to continue his denial of the reality of the situation.  What will be the next “terrorist act?”

https://www.rt.com/russia/618989-russia-most-advanced-nuclear-weapons/ 

Thus when Pope Francis became pope, my Italian relatives loved his vulgar Italian. By that I mean, his street Italian. And he was funny too, when you heard him speak his street Italian. He had an Italian sense of humor. One of my Italian relatives, who I visited in Livorno in 2013 told me that Pope Francis was a regular person that she would feel comfortable inviting into her home for dinner.

In Livorno, the term vulgar Italian means someone who is not very refined and does not have great manners in speech. They’re regular people.

But soon, that wore thin. More and more Pope Francis focused on the negative in the Church in his view. He called nuns “pickled pepper faces”. He told the Roman Curia they all had spiritual Alzheimer’s  disease, and that was the nicest thing he said to them over the years. 

He called young priests and seminarians little monsters who loved wearing their grandmother’s lace. 

He called rad trads, clergy or laity, rigid with serious underlying mental illnesses.

He called those with homosexual tendencies, fags and faggotry. That’s about as street speaking as you can get. He did it more than once too.

Pope Francis was very negative and everyone, except his circle of friends, feared with great anxiety any off-the-cuff remarks he would make that called into question orthodox Catholic teachings, especially interviews he gave which were very frequent and always caused an uproar in some parts of the Church.

Pope Leo has changed all of that and from day one! He looks and acts as a pope wearing very frequently the Mozzetta and ornate papal stole from the first moment of his election and for every formal papal event outside of a liturgy, such as this morning’s first consistory. It was always odd to see the pope wearing only his street cassock at consistories while the cardinals wore proper attire. 

He reads his speeches, not tossing them aside, so he can speak off-the-cuff. He is careful in any off-the-cuff remarks and has made no news by speaking off-the-cuff. Even in my liberal 1970’s seminary I had a professor tell me that popes don’t speak off-the-cuff as anything they say could be subject to being an official act or teaching. 

But the greatest immediate change Pope Leo has made is to be nice to his Curia, to the Roman Clergy, to the young trads on their pilgrimage in France and to everyone he meets.

Pope Leo is a breath of fresh papal air after the flatulence of the last 12 years. I doubt if we ever will hear Pope Leo speak of people eating sh-t as Pope Francis described some people. Thanks be to God for that!

Fr. Z summed it up best:

For the last month and change, one of the most frequent observations I’ve heard from people is that its funny how we are so happy just to have something like normalcy.  The most frequent word I’ve heard in Rome and in these USA, from clergy and laity, Catholics and even non-Catholics is “relief”.  One person likened it to the feeling when a migraine ends.  Another said it is like the fall of the Berlin Wall.

I told my bishop, I can breath again and I can!

From the Roman office. ℣. Grant, Lord, a blessing. Benediction. May the Gospel’s holy lection Be our safety and protection. ℟. Amen. Reading 1 Continuation of the Holy Gospel according to Luke Luke 5:17-26 At that time, it came to pass on a certain day, as Jesus sat and taught, that there were Pharisees, and Doctors of the law sitting by, which were come out of every town in Galilee…

Source

Initial and continuing jobless claims are as close to a real-time proxy on employment as we have. Thus, while they do not hold the same importance to the markets as the monthly BLS data, they are worth tracking. Moreover, when trends are changing, as they may be now, their importance increases. The two graphs below provide perspective on long-term and more recent trends in initial and continuing jobless claims.

The graph on the left provides a long-term perspective on current initial and continuing claims data. The recent increase in both data points is perceptible but very minor when looking back over the last thirty years. However, it is worth noting that initial claims and continuing claims are above those levels preceding the pandemic. Second, jobless payments from states have not kept up with inflation. Thus, it is widely believed that fewer people are making claims as they can earn more freelancing in gig-economy jobs like Uber and DoorDash.

The short-term graph on the right is a little more concerning. As shown, continuing jobless claims are at a three-year high, while initial claims are near similar highs. The rise in continuing claims suggests that individuals filing claims are having a tougher time finding new employment. While the initial and continuing claims will not keep the Fed up at night, they are certainly taking note of the rising trends and concurrent weakening in the monthly BLS data.

What To Watch Today

Earnings

• No earnings releases today

Economy

Market Trading Update

Yesterday, we discussed the rapid recovery of the "big 3" indices, which bodes well for future returns. However, that does not mean the market won't have a short-term correction or correlation to provide a better risk-reward entry point for investors to add exposure. As Mike and I discussed on the #RealInvestmentShow yesterday morning, we are willing to remain patient before deploying cash.

"The market remains overbought short-term, but it is not uncommon for markets to stay overbought longer than most expect. While we patiently await a pullback to increase portfolio exposure, that could be a while longer before it occurs.

Critically, we are not looking for LOWER prices to add exposure. I am okay with paying higher prices. However, we are searching for a better risk/reward opportunity to add exposure. As such, a consolidation period that allows relative strength or momentum to cool off somewhat will provide a better buying opportunity than under current conditions. We already have sufficient exposure to the market to gain performance when markets rise, but deploying capital at these levels is more “risky” than I prefer."

With the market still overbought on multiple measures, but back onto bullish buy signals, the risk/reward of investing capital at these levels is not optimal. However, a pullback to moving average support levels that reduce the short-term overbought conditions will significantly improve investment outcomes. However, the patience of "waiting" is the hard part.

Why will the market pull back? There are many reasons, including the ongoing supply/demand imbalance, the reduction of corporate share buybacks, and the continuing risk from tariff negotiations. With earnings season about to restart, there is also a risk of disappointment as the economy continues to slow. As I noted on "X" yesterday, we are also entering into a seasonally weak stretch for equity prices, which could translate into a pickup in volatility.

While it may seem the market won't quit going up, remember it will. The patience is the hard part.

PPI Underwhelms

Like CPI, PPI was weaker than expected. PPI and Core PPI rose by 0.1%, below expectations of 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. March and April were revised higher, with April changing from -0.5% to -0.2%, and May increasing from -0.4% to 0%. As shown below, the annualized three-month change in PPI, incorporating the current data and revisions, is -0.74%. For comparison, the CPI is running just north of 1%.

From a tariff perspective, PPI is likely to show tariff impacts before CPI. Typically, price changes flow through PPI to CPI, as PPI measures the prices of raw goods that manufacturers use to create their final products, which are then sold to other corporations or individuals. You can also think of the difference in the change of PPI and CPI as a proxy for corporate profit margins. The initial take, from a tariff perspective, is that the foreign sellers of the goods are eating the cost of the tariffs. Obviously, it will take a few more months of data to fully appreciate the full impact.

Financial Planning For Business Owners

Running a successful business takes grit, vision, and no shortage of time. Between managing operations, leading teams, and scaling growth, personal financial planning often gets pushed to the back burner. When business owners do seek help, they typically turn to their CPA for advice. And while CPAs are invaluable for accounting and tax compliance, they’re not able to cover every financial angle you face as a business owner.

To protect your personal wealth and ensure your financial future, you need more than a CPA—you need a financial advisor who understands your unique position. This partnership is essential for long-term planning, risk mitigation, investment growth, and wealth transfer strategies that extend well beyond taxes.

READ MORE...

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The post Initial And Continuing Jobless Claims On The Rise appeared first on RIA.

Inside This Week's Bull Bear Report

• The Bull Rally Continues
• How We Are Trading It
• Research Report - The Deficit Narrative May Find Its Cure In AI
• YouTube - Before The Bell
• Market Statistics
• Stock Screens
• Portfolio Trades This Week

Risk/Reward Favors Patience

I am traveling this weekend, so we are producing our weekly report a day early. As such, some charts using end-of-week data are using either Thursday or mid-Friday prices. All report will return to normal next week.

Let's start with where we left off last week."

"Despite a weakening unemployment report, a spat between President Trump and Elon Musk, a resurgence in the Ukraine/Russia conflict, and remaining tariff uncertainty between China, Europe, and the U.S., the markets continued their bullish ways this past week. Notably, the market broke out of the ongoing consolidation process that has been in place since May 12th. The good news is that bullish breakouts confirm bullish momentum and suggest markets will trade higher into the next resistance level. That next resistance level is 6100, the previous topping process before the March and April decline."

The market's bullish trend continued this week, and it is rapidly approaching all-time highs. However, an Israeli strike on Iran early Friday morning sent stocks tumbling at the open, but as of midday, as I am writing this report, most of the initial decline has fully recovered. We noted that a correction or consolidation process is needed to work off some short-term overbought conditions. But, as seen on Friday, any pullback is quickly bought by investors chasing the market in the near term.

As noted last week, we await a pullback to increase portfolio exposure further. However, given that sentiment and positioning measures are in the middle of their ranges, this suggests the bulls remain in control, and any substantial correction could take a while longer to occur. Let me repeat an essential statement from last week:

"Critically, we are not looking for LOWER prices to add exposure. I am okay with paying higher prices. However, we are searching for a better risk/reward opportunity to add exposure. As such, a consolidation period that allows relative strength or momentum to cool off somewhat will provide a better buying opportunity than under current conditions. We already have sufficient exposure to the market to gain performance when markets rise, but deploying capital at these levels is more "risky" than I prefer."

If we measure risk/reward technically, there is more downside risk than upside potential. The market could reach all-time highs, about 2% above current levels. Conversely, it would take nearly a 6% decline to retrace to the 50-DMA. That is a negative 3-to-1 bet. Most poker players I know would not take those odds. As such, there is no compelling "bet" for deploying capital. However, with some patience and the willingness to sacrifice some short-term performance, we will get an opportunity where the risk/reward proposition improves markedly. Just not when most expect them.

However, the psychological weight of "missing out" on a bull rally that won't seemingly stop is hard to fight in the short term. This is usually when most investors make their worst investment decisions. Patience is a virtue in this type of environment, but it is a tough commodity to come by. Those who have it tend to succeed, those who don't, don't.

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Will This Bull Rally Ever Stop?

The most asked question this past week is, "When will this bull rally end?" This is an interesting note given that in early April, amid the tariff-driven selloff, the question was, "When will this selloff end?" Of course, this is always the issue with market swings as they feed into our emotional biases of "fear" and "greed."

Since hitting its lows in April 2025, the stock market has staged an impressive bull rally, driven by a series of pivotal shifts. The initial trigger was the sharp sell-off sparked by President Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners, which rattled investors. However, the administration’s decision on April 9 to pause tariff increases for 90 days and exempt high-demand tech products like smartphones and computers ignited a historic relief rally, with the S&P 500 soaring 9.52%, the Dow 7.87%, and the Nasdaq 12.16% in a single day.

That momentum, which has been primarily driven by retail investors, has carried forward, helped by corporate earnings where S&P 500 companies posted 12.5% year-over-year profit growth in Q1 2025, led by mega-cap tech, AI-driven firms, and consumer discretionary sectors. Economic data has also supported the bullish sentiment, with May’s Nonfarm Payrolls adding 139,000 jobs and April’s CPI inflation at a lower-than-expected 2.3%, easing fears of tariff-driven price spikes. Falling Treasury yields, from 4.6% in April to below 4.5% by June, and global liquidity boosts from central banks like China’s have further propped up risk assets. The market’s optimism is also rooted in technical strength, with the S&P 500 nearing all-time highs around 6,144 and small-cap indices like the Russell 2000 breaking key levels, signaling sustained bullish momentum.

However, there are technical and fundamental risks for the bull rally to continue. A key risk is the potential reinstatement of tariffs if the 90-day pause expires without resolution or if trade talks, like those with China, falter. Inflation remains an ongoing concern, potentially keeping the Federal Reserve on pause with its rate-cutting cycle, which markets now expect to deliver only 1.77 cuts in 2025, down from 2.19. Signs of economic cooling, such as rising unemployment claims and overall economic data slowing, could put earnings expectations at risk. The economic composite index below, which comprises more than 100 data points, dropped sharply in April with the tariff announcements but rebounded sharply in May. However, it remains in very slow growth territory.

Overvaluation is a growing worry, as lofty valuations in tech and AI stocks may not hold if earnings growth slows—2025 estimates have already been trimmed from 14% to 8.5%.

However, despite those concerns, the bull rally rides a wave of optimism.

Optimism is another word for the current market price momentum levels, which are fed by investors' emotional "fear of missing out." Those rallies tend to last longer than most think.

So, when will this rally end? No one knows; however, some indicators can help us navigate this bull rally.

The Herd Is Right In The Middle

This past Monday, we posted an article about "How To Buy The Dip," which covered two crucial ingredients of both bearish corrections and bullish rallies: sentiment and price. As discussed, sentiment is essential in this analysis for several reasons:

1. Contrarian Indicator: Extreme sentiment often signals reversals. When investors are overly bullish (e.g., excessive buying, high confidence), it may indicate a market peak, as most buyers are already invested, leaving little room for further gains. Conversely, extreme bearishness (e.g., panic selling, widespread fear) often marks market lows, as selling pressure may be exhausted, creating rebound opportunities.
2. Herd Behavior: Sentiment drives herd mentality, amplifying price movements. At peaks, euphoria can lead to overvaluation as investors pile in. At lows, fear can cause undervaluation as investors exit en masse.
3. Market Psychology: Sentiment reflects psychological biases like greed and fear, which can disconnect prices from fundamentals. Understanding sentiment helps identify when markets are driven by emotion rather than value.
4. Timing Entry/Exit Points: Investors use sentiment to time trades. For example, high bullishness may prompt contrarians to sell, anticipating a correction, while extreme bearishness may signal a buying opportunity.

However, while sentiment is crucial, investors should integrate technical signals with fundamental analysis and sound risk management to avoid false signals and optimize outcomes. However, here is the most critical point as noted:

"The biggest challenge for investors is always being patient and waiting for the “fat pitch.”  When we examine the sentiment and technical indicators in more detail, we find their validity is at the extremes, not in the middle. In other words:

“The “herd” tends to be right in the middle of a move but wrong on both ends.”

With both weekly technical and sentiment measures in the middle, and the market rising, the odds favor a market that will continue to increase further. In other words, don’t bet against the bulls during a bullish trend in the market, and vice versa."

In that article, we discussed the composite sentiment "fear/greed" gauge and the technical composite in further detail. For this post, I have combined the two to represent the high correlation between market price and sentiment visually. This is obvious but essential to understand.

As shown, the best opportunities to "buy" or "sell" the market are when the indicators are at extremes. Such extremes tend to be very close to market peaks or troughs. However, as noted above, the "herd" tends to be correct in the middle. When both the price and sentiment of the market are turning more bullish, particularly from being extremely bearish, that trend tends to stay intact for some time. This is because investors are chasing price for the "fear" of missing out on further gains.

Furthermore, from a purely technical point of view, based on weekly price data, the March correction reversed much of the previous overbought conditions and bullish exuberance. By the end of the correction in early April, both relative strength (RSI) and momentum (MACD) had fully reversed. Furthermore, the deviations from long-term moving averages were also resolved. While the correction was painful, it reset the market for investors to re-enter at better prices.

With the momentum indicator triggering a "buy signal" and relative strength rising, the previous bull rally has resumed and likely has more room to run. Sentiment and technical gauges are "in the middle," supporting further market gains.

Yet, while investors are worried about the next "shoe to drop," professional investors are currently worrying about how to get capital invested.

Professionals Still Offside

As we have noted previously, two of the biggest buyers in the market have been very supportive of the rally so far. After evaporating in March, heading into earnings season, corporate buying of shares surged in May, supporting the rally from the April lows.

As we discussed previously, retail investors were heavy buyers of equities in April and May, with equities pulling large inflows despite the selloff. Retail investors have also been piling into leveraged ETFs to chase market recovery.

However, while retail investors were jumping in with both feet, professional investors remained underweight and are now beginning to increase exposure as portfolio performance (aka career risk) begins to weigh on them. However, that equity exposure remains very low relative to historical norms, which suggests that buying could continue to support the current rally into July.

Notably, risk parity models remain grossly underweight equities. Risk parity portfolio models are an investment strategy that allocates risk equally across different asset classes, rather than allocating capital based on traditional metrics like market value or equal dollar amounts. The goal is to create a balanced portfolio where each asset contributes roughly the same amount of risk to the overall portfolio, regardless of its expected return or market size. While risk/parity models seek to avoid unbalanced risk exposure, they are currently on the "wrong side" of the equation, leading to underperformance risk. If this market continues to rally, we should expect to see these allocations rise, providing further support to the rally.

However, with the "herd" pushing markets higher, and now forcing professional investors to play "catch up," this does not mean the markets won't take a breather before continuing the bull rally. Risk appetite is approaching more elevated levels, historically arguing for a pause in the rally.

While there are certainly reasons to be concerned after a two-month 20% rally, the reality is that the bull market remains intact. The question for investors is how to trade it from here.

The Bull Rally May Pause, But Won't End

As noted above, the bull rally remains intact, and as shown by the technical and sentiment gauges, we do not yet have the conditions for a "mean-reverting" event. As Nomura Securities recently penned, for such an event to occur, you first need:

1) Excess Length / Positioning / Leverage -accumulation;

2) Elements of “Speculative Froth” to develop in High Beta / High Vol market segments;

3) Steep Skew, where due to said “Extreme Positioning” and in High-Beta / Speculative sectors and assets, End-Users then NEED TO HEDGE their Downside risk, which in-turn means that Dealers would be put in a “Short Gamma / Short Vega” position into a Spot selloff, which creates “Accelerant Flow” to the DOWNSIDE

4) Typically from there, the Dealer “Accelerant flows” then knock-into Systematic Deleveraging from Vol-Scalers as additional source of synthetic “Negative Gamma” in the marketplace.

However, as shown in all the charts above, we are, to quote Nomura again, " not there yet."

Given the magnitude of the reversal in the technical and sentiment data, the current environment reminds us much more of late 2018 and early 2019. In 2918, you got very negative technical and sentiment readings before the Fed reversed course in December. That led to the rally off those lows into early 2019, which continued into the early summer before a sizeable reversal occurred. However, as shown, between now and then, there were "dips" that could be bought along the way.

We suspect it will be much the same this time until bullish sentiment and positioning become more extreme.

However, on a longer-term basis, the recent correction also provides sufficient runway for the bull market to continue well into next year. The current upper trend line suggests a new target for the S&P 500 of 6561 near term, and above 7000 by 2026. With the longer-term momentum indicators turning positive, the bullish backdrop for equities is improving.

Yes, many things could occur between now and then that could derail the markets. That is always the risk in investing. However, markets are always forward-looking and quickly factor in "known" risks like tariffs, the debt, and deficits.

The best course of action for investors is to continue managing risk and allocations. Economic data is improving, the risk of recession is non-existent, and sentiment is mainly neutral, which suggests that portfolios should be weighted towards equity risk until the data changes.

How We Are Trading It

Given the sharp decline and subsequent rally, the rise of voices expressing "disbelief" in the bull rally is unsurprising. However, a review of the technical backdrop suggests that current risk may be lower than many expect.

Do we know that with certainty? No. But that is why we continually reiterate the importance of paying attention to portfolios, managing risk, and holding more cash when uncertainty exists. As you can see in the portfolio model below, we are doing this.

Is that excess cash currently causing a performance drag? Yes. Do we like it? No. However, a temporary performance drag is worth the cost of allowing an entry into the market with fresh capital at a better risk/reward outcome.

That remains the case this week.

As investors, continue to focus on what matters to your investing outcomes.

• Avoid the “herd mentality” of paying increasingly higher prices without sound reasoning.
• Do your research and avoid “confirmation bias.” 
• Develop a sound long-term investment strategy that includes “risk management” protocols.
• Diversify your portfolio allocation model to include “safer assets.”
• Control your “greed” and resist the temptation to “get rich quick” in speculative investments.
• Resist getting caught up in “what could have been” or “anchoring” to a past value. Such leads to emotional mistakes. 
• Realize that price inflation does not last forever. The larger the deviation from the mean, the greater the eventual reversion. Invest accordingly. 

We will use any summer weakness to buy quality companies on dips. Furthermore, we will watch the Federal Reserve closely for clues to monetary policy changes as the economy slows.

Continue to follow the rules and stick to your discipline. (Read our article on “What Is Risk” for a complete list of rules)

Feel free to reach out if you want to navigate these uncertain waters with expert guidance. Our team specializes in helping clients make informed decisions in today’s volatile markets.

Research Report

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Bull Bear Report Market Statistics & Screens

SimpleVisor Top & Bottom Performers By Sector

S&P 500 Weekly Tear Sheet

Relative Performance Analysis

The market continued its bullish way this past week, and many sectors and markets remain very overbought. The market will likely correct or consolidate this summer, and as such, investors should consider taking profits and rebalancing allocations back toward domestic equities. The most overcrowded trade currently is the "short dollar" trade, which, when it reverses, will provide a tailwind to domestic equities. However, for now, dollar weakness means investors should remain cautious and wait for a better entry opportunity.

Technical Composite

The technical overbought/sold gauge comprises several price indicators (R.S.I., Williams %R, etc.), measured using “weekly” closing price data. Readings above “80” are considered overbought, and below “20” are oversold. The market peaks when those readings are 80 or above, suggesting prudent profit-taking and risk management. The best buying opportunities exist when those readings are 20 or below.

The current reading is 76.61 out of a possible 100.

Portfolio Positioning “Fear / Greed” Gauge

The “Fear/Greed” gauge is how individual and professional investors are “positioning” themselves in the market based on their equity exposure. From a contrarian position, the higher the allocation to equities, the more likely the market is to be closer to a correction than not. The gauge uses weekly closing data.

NOTE: The Fear/Greed Index measures risk from 0 to 100. It is a rarity that it reaches levels above 90.

The current reading is 71.54 out of a possible 100.

Relative Sector Analysis

Most Oversold Sector Analysis

Sector Model Analysis & Risk Ranges

How To Read This Table

• The table compares the relative performance of each sector and market to the S&P 500 index.
• “MA XVER” (Moving Average Crossover) is determined by the short-term weekly moving average crossing positively or negatively with the long-term weekly moving average.
• The risk range is a function of the month-end closing price and the “beta” of the sector or market. (Ranges reset on the 1st of each month)
• The table shows the price deviation above and below the weekly moving averages.

While the market broke out of its consolidation range this past week, many sectors remain above normal risk ranges. Particularly, Energy, Technology, and Healthcare, which were previously laggards. You should review the relative analysis table above, which shows which sectors are lagging or leading the broader market. With regularity, previous laggards become leaders and vice versa. We remain concerned about most markets and sectors being on bearish weekly signals. While there seems to be minimal risk to the market, historically, the large number of bearish crossovers suggests that risk is not absent. Continue to trade cautiously and hold higher-than-normal levels of cash.

Weekly SimpleVisor Stock Screens

We provide three stock screens each week from SimpleVisor.

This week, we are searching for the Top 20:

• Relative Strength Stocks
• Momentum Stocks
• Technical Strength W/ Dividends

(Click Images To Enlarge)

RSI Screen

Momentum Screen

Technically Strong With Dividends

SimpleVisor Portfolio Changes

We post all of our portfolio changes as they occur at SimpleVisor:

No Trades This Week

Lance Roberts, C.I.O., RIA Advisors

The post The Bull Rally Continues appeared first on RIA.

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