“If you believe what you like in the Gospels, and reject what you don’t like, it is not the Gospel you believe, but yourself.”
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Site: Zero HedgeCircling The Firing Squad: Democratic Party Moves To Negate Earlier Election Of David HoggTyler Durden Wed, 05/14/2025 - 12:45
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) is about to show the perils of circling a firing squad. In its announcement that it will nullify the election of David Hogg and another Vice Chair, the DNC reminded the public why they have left the Democratic Party. The sudden decision that there were procedural irregularities in the election (after Hogg said that he would target older Democratic incumbents) leaves the DNC looking more like the CCP.
However, it gets worse.
Hogg caused a controversy by announcing that he will work to primary older Democratic incumbents through his group, Leaders We Deserve, to bring young candidates into the party. The leadership ordered him to retract the pledge or resign. He did neither.
Then, the DNC announced that there were “irregularities” in how he and Pennsylvania state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta won two of the three vice chair positions.
The reason? One of the losing candidates, Kalyn Free, filed a complaint during the original election alleging that the DNC failed to follow rules on gender diversity.
If you recall, the Democratic Party was widely mocked over the difficulty of the DNC leadership to explain its convoluted rules for guaranteeing gender and racial diversity. It became a parody of itself.
This is just one of the efforts to explain the rules:
Jamie Harrison eventually had to turn it over to another DNC member who had equal difficulty explaining the gender equality rules and procedures:
HARRISON: “Because of our gender balance provisions on this next ballot, you will be able to vote for two candidates of any gender on the next ballot. OK? So on this next ballot, you will be able to vote for two candidates of any gender on the next ballot. If two candidates receive — I’m going to turn to Helen to clarify this last part.”
UNKNOWN FEMALE: “You are in this next ballot where you have two votes. As the chair has said, you may vote for two males, two females, two of any gender. OK? No, you can’t do that. Because we’ve got to balance. You could vote for one of any gender, OK? Non-binary gender. Excuse me. It is late. OK?”
After she lost, Free filed her complaint.
It would have been an easy matter to determine if there was an invalid balloting but the DNC moved on…for months.
After Hogg refused to recant or resign, the DNC then issued this procedural excuse to negate the election.
For many, the exercise seemed yet another manipulation by the DNC after it refused to have a real debate over the nomination of Kamala Harris and simply held a coronation at the convention after she failed to secure a single primary vote. Despite spending over $1.2 billion, she lost to Trump.
DNC members rushed forward to insist that this was just a coincidence and had nothing to do with Hogg’s controversy.
However, they then contradicted that claim in comments to the media as Hogg himself said that it was about his campaign to bring in young voters.
One former official told the media, “This is not about David Hogg, despite what he’s saying. It is gender balance…. It’s in the rules that the officers need to be balanced between men and women.”
However, the same official then added “The full DNC now gets to vote again. If they like what Hogg is doing then that’s great, and he’ll be re-elected. It was disingenuous to not reveal his intentions the first time before they voted. While it has nothing to do with him, it’s an elected position so now we’ll find out if the party supports it or not, which they very well may.”
Another former official insisted that the vote was needed because “either Hogg is wrong and misled members or they think he’s doing the right thing. Either way, it’ll be settled. And he can’t complain. A re-vote is not forcing him out, there are other ways to do that if they chose to.”
I grew up in a liberal Democratic family in Chicago and spent much of my life working for Democratic politicians. It has been astonishing to watch the current Democratic leadership destroy their own party with identity politics and radical agendas.
Yet, this takes the cake. We have not seen such a display since the arrival of the Judean People’s Front Crack Suicide Squad:
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Site: Zero HedgeBoeing Scores Largest-Ever Order As Dealmaking Trump Tours Gulf StatesTyler Durden Wed, 05/14/2025 - 12:25
President Trump's Gulf tour began Tuesday with the lifting of long-standing U.S. sanctions on Syria and a massive $600 billion investment deal from Saudi Arabia to invest in the American economy. The visit quickly led to a flurry of other investments, including multibillion-dollar AI deals between U.S. chipmakers Nvidia and AMD with Humain, a newly launched artificial intelligence firm backed by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund. On Wednesday, the momentum continued in Qatar, where Trump unveiled Boeing's largest widebody aircraft order ever.
Faisal Al-Mudahka, editor-in-chief of the Gulf Times, described Qatar Airways' massive purchase of between 160 - 200 widebody aircraft from Boeing—the largest order in the company's history—as a "win-win" for both nations.
"I think Donald Trump and Qatar know how to package things to make political gains and economic gains," Al-Mudahka said.
Qatar Airways has become one of the world's top airlines, with a growing market share worldwide. The expanded fleet of the 787 Dreamliner model will allow the airline to add more long-haul flights.
Earlier, Trump participated in a signing ceremony on a series of bilateral agreements with Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in Doha, including:
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Qatar Airways signed an agreement to purchase 210 787 Dreamliner and 777X aircraft powered by GE Aerospace engines.
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A number of defence agreements, including a letter of intent on defence cooperation and a letter offer and acceptance for MQ-9B drones.
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A joint declaration of cooperation between the two nations.
President Donald Trump says Boeing won an order from Qatar Airways amid a flurry of deals between Gulf nations.
— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) May 14, 2025
The agreement signed by the carrier is for 160 aircraft in what it said is the largest order in the company’s history https://t.co/tUQDzkarlz pic.twitter.com/9OF61zHB4fAfter the signing ceremony, Qatar's emir said he had a "great" few hours with Trump, during which they discussed various topics.
"I think after signing these documents, we are going to another level of relations," the emir said.
Trump also congratulated Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, who was also in Doha, for the signing of the deal.
Here's the White House's fact sheet of the agreement with Qatar to generate at least $1.2 trillion in economic activity between both countries:
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The landmark deals celebrated today will drive innovation and prosperity for generations, bolster American manufacturing and technological leadership, and put America on the path to a new Golden Age.
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Since President Trump took office, his commitment to American manufacturing and innovation has attracted trillions of dollars in investments and global commercial deals. Allies like Qatar are partnering in the United States' success.
Boeing shares rose 2% in the late morning cash session in New York, trading around the $208 handle—the highest level in roughly 15 months
On Tuesday, at the start of Trump's trip, Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund announced a $4.8 billion Boeing order.
President Trump is expected to return to the U.S. later this week, ready to boast about the mega-deals signed with Gulf states—deals he's likely to frame as part of the agenda to ascend America into a new Golden Age. This strategy comes as easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China has helped the stock market recover much of the recent trade war-related losses.
The media strategy from the White House appears clear: build and sustain momentum with positive economic news that squeezes left-leaning corporate media out of the conversation because of their persistent misinformation and disinformation campaigns.
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Site: Zero HedgeDepartment Of Defense Orders Halt To Gender Transition Medicine, ProceduresTyler Durden Wed, 05/14/2025 - 12:05
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,
The U.S. Department of Defense said in a new memorandum that it is halting medical treatments and procedures for troops who identify as transgender and other personnel with gender dysphoria (GD).
“Within the direct care component, meaning at military medical treatment facilities ... Service members and all other covered beneficiaries 19 years of age or older may only receive mental health care and counseling for GD,” Dr. Stephen L. Ferrara, acting assistant secretary of defense for health affairs, said in the memo, which is dated May 9.
“Apart from consults for the diagnosis of GD and provision of mental health care and counseling ... staff will refer all other care (e.g., cross-sex hormone therapy) for GD to the private sector.”
The Pentagon did not return a request for comment by publication time.
GD refers to when a person believes they’re a gender that’s different from their sex.
President Donald Trump, after taking office in January, said in an order that “expressing a false ‘gender identity’ divergent from an individual’s sex cannot satisfy the rigorous standards necessary for military service.”
Defense officials later said that all troops with a history of GD would be discharged, with limited exceptions. That process was paused after court rulings against the policy. The Supreme Court on May 6 stayed those rulings, enabling officials to resume the process.
Officials said on May 8 that they were discharging about 1,000 troops who identify as transgender or otherwise have GD.
Ferrara said in the new memo, which was sent to the director of the Defense Health Agency and assistant secretaries at the Army, Navy, and Air Force, that he was providing fresh guidance in light of the Supreme Court ruling.
That includes emphasizing that military doctors are not to perform any surgeries that would aid in gender transition, such as breast removal.
Ferrara also said that all unscheduled, scheduled, and planned surgical procedures “associated with facilitating sex reassignment for Service members diagnosed with GD” are now canceled, as are any previously approved waivers for the surgeries.
Ferrara said his office would accept waiver requests for care deemed medically necessary to address surgical complications.
The military is allowing troops with GD who have been receiving cross-sex hormones to keep receiving them until they are separated, if a health care provider recommends that path “in order to prevent further complications.”
The Department of Defense, though, will no longer pay for newly initiated cross-sex hormones, according to the memo, as ordered by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
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Site: RT - News
Eighty years after WW II, EU leaders are approving huge budgets to solve a self-made security problem. Yet the silver bullets are defective
It has been said that quantity has quality all of its own.
The origins of this dictum, which is often attributed to Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, can be traced back to ancient dialecticians. They argued that continued quantitative changes will eventually lead to qualitative transformations. After all, if you incessantly add one grain of sand to another, finally a heap will emerge.
Imbued with an unshakeable belief in the power of quantity, European leaders, who due to their incompetence form a veritable kakistocracy (rule of the worst), in March 2025 hastily adopted financial mega-packages simultaneously at the supranational level (European Union) and national level (Germany) for additional defense spending and other outlays far exceeding one trillion Euro.
This catchpenny action, which served special interests (such as those of the defense industry), was touted as an antidote to a much-hyped security problem. The quagmire allegedly consisted of an acute threat of Russia exploiting a vacuum, which had been created by the United States’ decoupling from Europe, by invading the old continent in no time. On the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War, the European alarmists exploited threat bias by conveniently reinforcing long-harbored fears concerning Russia. More specifically, they remined their audiences of the latter’s iron grip on Eastern Europe in the wake of the worst military conflict in history - irrespective of the fact that the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic constituted only one part of the Soviet Union and this federation of republics had long ceased to exist.
However, the mega-spending approach is highly questionable in terms of process and content. In this context, it needs to be remembered that there is no free lunch - food in officers’ messes not excluded! The veracity of this dictum is revealed by a closer look at the following, partially interrelated problems associated with the gargantuan debt-financed defense packages and other new mega-spending programs adopted across Europe.
Read more
Prof. Schlevogt’s Compass No. 14: ‘Whatever it takes’ revisited – Euromaniacs exploit threat bias again
1. Widening democratic deficit and credibility gap
Across the EU, the success of conservative Eurosceptic parties, which are defamatorily labelled “extreme right-wing” and “populist” by the governing elites and their media mouthpieces, shows that broad swathes of the electorate there are opposing the building of a European superstate. Especially the new EU-wide defense splurge aimed at financing one building block of this expensive European mansion (that is, a common defense capability), thus clearly defies the popular will in many places.
At the EU-level, the decision-making process, which is opaque, has been driven by the upper caste of EU bureaucrats, who lack democratic legitimacy. They routinely jump the bandwagon and succumb to groupthink and delusional, hubris-fueled wishful thinking, with no political-economic Cassandra warning them of the clear and present dangers courted by their foolishness. Feeling safe inside the herd and being absolved of individual accountability and responsibility, the members of the exclusive EU club tend to take overly risky decisions. Clearly, the grand ambition of the EU to become the new “leader of the free world”, after the US has retired for good reasons (including financial ones!), is both unaffordable and anachronistic (especially given that a growing number of people around the world are rejecting unchecked, woke-filled liberalism).
Worse, the dire predictions regarding Russia are fraught with the grave risk of becoming self-fulfilling prophecies, since the so-called enemy might feel threatened and take reactive and preventive measures (as happened in Ukraine according to Russia’s account of the special military operation). This, in combination with the strategic failure of not incorporating exit ramps into the grand European plans, which can be used to transit from crisis mode to normalcy, might result in a dangerous spiral of escalating commitments and violence.
Using a combination of scaremongering and the slippery slope argument based on domino theory, Russia’s attack on Ukraine is framed as being just the prelude to Russian invasions of other countries if Moscow remains unchecked. The recycling of the rhetorical device of the slippery slope, which is classified as a fallacy, bodes ill. It was used to great effect by the U.S. to justify its participation in the Vietnam war, allegedly to prevent the spread of Communism to other Asian countries. However, it is extremely unlikely that Russia, assuming that it will not be provoked, will invade Germany, for example, which is a member of NATO and has a long history of friendly ties with the Eastern bear in manifold spheres.
Even though different options always exist, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in an oxymoronic antithesis claimed apodictically on 18 March 2025 that the “choice is none”. After touting the alleged virtues of pacifism and individualism for decades, European leaders suddenly in unison are preaching a new dangerous form of collectivism, demanding heavy sacrifices for what is portrayed as the common good.
Using the alleged Russia threat as a red herring and smokescreen, as well as igniting and exploiting one upheaval after another, they create a perpetual crisis and constant threat reminiscent of the situation depicted in George Orwell’s dystopic novel Nineteen Eighty-Four. They are thus impeding critical thinking through tactics of continuous diversion and detraction, in order to pursue a hidden agenda in a mendacious and unencumbered fashion. The pernicious effect of the stratagem of blurring the water to catch a fish is heightened by the sheer speed by which EU groupthinkers are hastening through the mega spending packages at different levels, leaving potential opponents little time to mount resistance.
In Germany, a softening of constitutionally enshrined debt ceilings, known as the Schuldenbremse (debt brake), among other things, limiting annual structural deficits to 0.35% of a gross domestic product (GDP), was approved in March 2025 in a hastily reconvened lame-duck Bundestag (federal parliament), even though a new parliament had already been elected. The loosening of fiscal shackles was destined to make it possible to borrow large amounts of money for new mega-spending packages. Due to the increase in the number of seats of the Eurosceptic AfD, the radical constitutional change, which required a supermajority, would most likely not have been adopted by the new parliament.
Read more
Prof. Schlevogt’s Compass No. 13: How to recast the White House into the Élysée – five rules for handling a strongman
Even if, in purely technical terms, the gambit of using the old parliament was legal, it clearly bore witness of utter disrespect for the popular will. Since the sweeping change of the constitutional debt limits and the spending spree were not clearly highlighted in party programs and on the campaign trail, the move also amounts to egregious voter deception. In addition, the CDU, given that it failed to achieve stellar results in the 2025 federal election and thus was forced to enter another grand coalition with the SPD, which pursues different objectives, has no sweeping mandate for transformation. As a consequence of all the machinations and disregard for the wishes of voters, the democratic credentials and political credibility of mainstream parties in Germany are further undermined.
2. Waste of resources and corruption potential
Lacking strategic focus, the big spenders in Europe are pursuing an excessive number of mutually conflicting objectives and employ a reactive shotgun approach aimed at combating the phantom enemy in the east and conveniently solving other problems at the same time. As a consequence, resources are likely to be wasted at a grand scale. The German language, with its great capacity for compounding words, possesses an apt, humorous term that is well-suited for describing the all-in-one financial mega packages adopted in March 2025 and their wished-for all-inclusive results, that is, eierlegende Wollmilchsau, which is literally translated as egg-laying wooly dairy pig. Would it not be great to have such a fabulous multifunctional animal as a cornucopian source of myriad desirable products?
Apparently inspired by a comparable unrealistic, perfectionist vision of completeness in the field of politics, the German all-in-one package adopted by the Bundestag in March 2025, among other things, included spending on infrastructure, defense and climate projects (see Figure 1).
Figure 1
© Prof. Dr. Kai-Alexander Schlevogt
Clearly, the addition of environmental spending aimed at combatting yet another phantom, that is, a changing climate (which by nature is always changing!), constitutes a surrender to the demands of clientele politics pursued by the Green Party. Money, so the German spendthrifts think, is the answer to all problems – a conception as erroneous as hoping that pouring an ever-increasing amount of water on a plant will further healthy growth. Again, adopting a shoot-then-aim approach and trying to be a jack of all trades, while being master of none, undermines the credibility of the political mavericks and tricksters.
Due to the package approach, vaguely stated purpose and large amounts of money involved – coupled with the lack of democratic due process and concomitant intransparency – there is a high risk of moral hazards and unintended consequences occurring, including wide-spread and large-scale misappropriation of funds under different disguises by officials who simply do not care or are outright corrupt. In fact, it is quite easy to hide expenditure items, which are not related to the overall stated purpose, inside a large financial package, especially if one uses budget tricks and “creative accounting”. For example, given the vague nature of spending labels, it is easy to misappropriate infrastructure funds for defense.
The problems get compounded when a fast-track approval, steam-roller-like process without due diligence and accountability is used to deceive voters and confront them with a fait accompli before they can react. A case in point is Western military aid to Ukraine, in regard to which some critics doubting whether all funds and arms reached the intended destination. As an earlier example, the hastily approved European Covid-19 rescue funds were partially misappropriated by corrupt actors. The EU president even negotiated a deal with Pfizer via SMS, in order to procure the American pharma giant’s vaccines without proper accountability.
The so-called thin-edge-of-the-wedge effect becomes clearly visible when one analyzes political patterns in the EU: After taboos have been shattered and the breaking of national, democratically legitimized resistance has become a well-established pattern, erstwhile unthinkable action – such as mutualizing debt and misappropriating funds earmarked for other purposes - is now taken publicly without shame.
While the financing of the Covid-19 packages through European loans constituted a crossing of a German red line, creating another European financing vehicle for the EU defense package prompted no real debate and met no serious resistance. Furthermore, as an example of budget tricks used, one key ingredient of the European defense package announced in March 2025 is the redirecting of funds originally earmarked for the promotion of interregional cohesion to investments in defense projects. Even the lifting of EU fiscal rules to allow for defense spending of 650 billion Euro was calmly accepted by all important players.
In this context, it is important to note that referring to the Covid-19 rescue packages as a precedent to justify new mega spending packages constitutes a false analogy, given that there are crucial differences with respect to their financing costs. When the pandemic broke out in 2020, the key interest rate set by the European Central Bank (ECB) was 0%. Yet in 2022, the monetary authority started to increase rates to combat high inflation. In March 2025, at the time the new mega spending packages were announced, the key interest rate stood at 2.5%.
Finally, the promise to do “whatever it takes” (WIT) in a perpetual crisis mode – as part of a reactive pattern of long-time procrastination followed by sudden bursts of radical measures – coupled with the lack of a clearly defined exit ramp back to consolidation ensures that waste and corruption can go on for a long time, with commitments being escalated all along - in for a penny, in for a pound (even if one does not have a penny to bless oneself with!).
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Prof. Schlevogt’s Compass No. 12: Man is an incurable gambler by nature – how liberals spur social sores
The WIT approach is adopted despite the fact that as regards spending, there are always costs and benefits, as well as declining marginal returns, which makes it necessary to strive for an optimum instead of continuously pouring more funds in a limitless fashion (which is particularly pernicious if the problem is a phantom one). The idiomatic “whatever it takes” label thus is clearly ominous, since, according to its definition, in certain contexts it serves as a euphemism for improper behavior, including harmful measures in the pursuit of a given objective.
In fact, EU leaders are behaving like addicted gamblers, opting for one stimulus after another, such as injecting funds into defense after the COVID-19 stimuli have fizzled out, while the amount of funds spent increases at an exponential rate. By behaving like a gambler at the roulette table who is ready to spend whatever it takes to win, they are essentially gambling their own nations away.
Theoretically, the entire spending process can go on indefinitely, since the targets are extremely soft and subjective and thus elusive. For example, there is no point where one can conclude with absolute certainty that Europe is “properly defended”, especially when there is considerable heterogeneity between the countries on the old continent in many regards. Given such fuzziness and the lack of solid anchors, it comes to no surprise that targets are shifted easily, as witnessed by the raising of the minimum that NATO members are supposed spend on defense (lately, the minimum expenditure measured as a percentage of GDP has risen from 2% to 5%).
3. Imbalances due to lopsided Keynesianism
During the Great Depression (1929-c.1939), the British economist John Maynard Keynes managed to transform public policy by challenging the neoclassical view that labor markets would adjust automatically to changing economic conditions and instead arguing for increased government spending to combat unemployment. In his view, the specific nature of the spending did not matter, as long as it contributed to employment. In his book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, published in 1936, he praised the building of pyramids and even suggested that it would make sense for the government to pay for the digging of holes and then again to spend money on filling them up!
After his widely popular theory fell into disrepute during the period of stagflation (declining output coupled with inflation) in the 1970s and rule-based, fiscally conservative ordo liberalism gained supremacy over discretionary economic pump priming, Keynesianism became fashionable again during the 2008 financial crisis and was reignited during the Covid-19 pandemic. The bonanza of spending announced in March 2025 with the aim of combatting the imagined Russia threat continues this trend of Keynesian revival.
However, Keynesian economic policy is lopsided, since it focuses only on the demand side of the economy. In figurative terms, it is concerned only with how to slice the economic cake – allocating economic output to consumption, investment, government expenditure and net exports respectively – instead of focusing on how to actually increase the gâteau, which requires supply-side economic measures that expand the production possibility frontier.
Increasing demand - through measures such as raising defense spending - without expanding supply, ceteris paribus, eventually will push up prices. Such inflation distorts economic signals and leads to a misallocation of economic resources, thus creating serious imbalances in society (such as pensioners on fixed incomes being hurt more than people whose nominal income will be increased when the general price level rises). An inflationary spiral ensues when (a) wages are incessantly increased to compensate for losses in purchasing power due to price rises and (b) inflationary expectations, which are particularly difficult to dampen, are heightened as a result.
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Prof. Schlevogt’s Compass No. 11: Legitimizing gambling – a study of the ‘Liberal Warfare Toolbox’
Instead of lopsided, inflation-fueling neo-Keynesianism and mere occasional lip services to the future removal of structural bottlenecks, a robust combination of different economic policies is needed in the EU and many other places, focusing on both the demand side (as long as the production possibility frontier has not been reached) and the supply side (aiming at expanding the production possibility frontier). Unlike Keynes, who, when push came to shove, did not exhibit real interest in the particular nature of government expenditure (as long as it contributed to employment), supply-side economic measures need to be targeted, focusing on the drivers of long-term growth, that is, capital, labor and technological progress.
4. Negative impact of reckless financial engineering
In theory, Keynesian stimuli programs can be financed by various means, but in practice, they most often rely on borrowing, which also applies to the EU spending packages approved in March 2025. This particular financing approach – used instead of offsetting spending cuts, for example – is problematic in various regards.
First, financing the huge spending packages via loans instead of by means of proportional reductions in other expenditure constitutes an act of deception, since it hides crucial tradeoffs. More specifically, one aim of such financial engineering is to hide the “guns versus butter” tradeoff in the short run. Given limited resources, in the absence of supply-side economic growth, higher spending on military goods (which are a deadweight in times of peace) at least partially comes at the opportunity cost of lower spending on civilian goods – now or in the future. Put simply, the money you spend on a tank will not be available for building a hospital.
Moreover, the increased demand of the government for loanable funds, ceteris paribus, is bound to drive up real interest rates. As a foretaste of things to come, Germany’s borrowing costs rose quickly after the new huge spending package was announced in March 2025, with 10-year note yields jumping by over 20 basis points. Increased rates in turn make it more expensive for businesses to finance their investments. As the final result of increased government borrowing, private investment is crowed out.
Furthermore, as confirmed by cutting-edge academic research using input-output analyses, the positive economic impact of spending on arms purchases (a hidden form of industrial policy) tends be smaller than the effect exerted by non-military government spending. In addition, military expenditure is also positively correlated with income inequality.
The net multiplier effect of defense spending viewed in isolation, which hinges on technological spillovers from the defense industry to other sectors within the same economic region, tends to be lower as compared to many other investments with lower opportunity costs. In particular, the multiplier is likely to be comparatively small in the EU, since it procures approximately 80% of defense products from outside the block.
Read more
Prof. Schlevogt’s Compass № 10: China’s silky future in a realigned world
Furthermore, debt-financed Keynesian policies also tend to deceive uneducated and myopic consumers in other ways. More specifically, the short-term demand-side growth of an economy that has not yet reached the production possibility frontier comes at the expense of future consolidation of state finances – a fact not known to economic laymen. In a form of yo-yo-effect, consumers may provoke a temporary spike in aggregate demand by pulling forward consumption, which, however, in a later “snap-back” movement, will need to be curtailed when the government adopts austerity measures. In the final analysis, the impact of a government’s fiscal expansion program on the demand side is positively correlated with the degree of irrationality of consumers, which it is ruthlessly exploiting. More specifically, Keynesianism partly hinges on kindling consumers’ “animal spirits”, increasing their optimism by injecting stimuli funds into the economy, even though such optimism is misplaced when life-time income is considered.
If on the other hand, citizens are very savvy and farsighted, they at least instinctively grasp the so-called Ricardian Equivalence, understanding that debt-financed stimuli programs will necessitate fiscal consolidation in the form of future tax raises. This expectation will prompt them to curtail consumption after an expansion program has been adopted, so that they will have sufficient funds to pay the higher taxes in the future. If this happens, the demand boost that policymakers wanted to achieve through Keynesian stimulus packages will not materialize.
A responsible, prudent and honest statesman would need to offset increased military spending by either reducing other government expenditure or raising government income (such as by increasing taxes) or a combination of both. By seemingly effortlessly and quickly paying for the military buildup through new debt, EU leaders simply shift the economic pain, which current voters would probably be unwilling to endure, to future generations. Clearly, this ruse hinging on what I call “guilt-by-succession” gravely violates intergenerational justice. As soon as somebody calls out the bluff, EU leaders will suffer another blow to their credibility.
Apart from the serious problems associated with debt-financing mentioned above, ceteris paribus, an increasingly larger share of EU members’ budgets will need to be used for interest payments if debt levels continue to increase across the block. This means that less money will be available to meet other important public needs. Those include, among other things, financial means for coping with foreseeable problems undermining long-term supply-side economic potential (such as an aging population and concomitantly shrinking labor pool) and emergency funds to deal with various unforeseen shocks to the system.
The US, whose federal debt amounted to a staggering 35.46 trillion US-dollars in 2024, offers a cautionary tale in this regard. This is because the so-called leader of the free world had to spend more on interest in that year than on other big-ticket items. For instance, interest payment exceeded spending on higher education by a staggering 756 billion US dollars (see Figure 2).
Figure 2
© Prof. Dr. Kai-Alexander Schlevogt
In addition, rising debt levels are dimming the long-term prospects for growth in national income, partly because they lead to an increase in risk premiums and real interest rates. The mere expectation of slower long-term growth can negatively affect the current business cycle. This happens, for example, if entrepreneurs, due to high government debt, lose confidence in the economy and reduce investments in the expectation of future austerity programs. If the debt is monetized through loans from the central bank which prints new money, inflation is likely to be stoked in a vulnerable economy. Similarly to what usually happens in the wake of wage inflation, inflationary expectations will rise concomitantly, unleashing an inflationary spiral that is particularly difficult to end.
Moreover, the continuous increase in government debt across the EU can lead to members suffering from debt overhang whereby, due to their indebtedness, they cannot attract new funds even if there are investment projects that promise high yields. Finally, they are likely to end up in a debt trap, that is, a vicious circle where debt service obligations are met with a succession of new loans. This pernicious pattern is likely to trigger increasingly serious financial crises (including sovereign debt crises) and finally a total collapse of the entire system. Then, European leaders may conclude that the only solution to this plight is a great reset after a major war, possibly between former allies on European soil!
5. European disintegration
The new mega-financial packages threaten European unity in various ways. To start with, the huge spending programs announced in March 2025 create another layer of supranational debt, which comes on top of high national debt mountains. In particular, a new dedicated program of funding is to be launched at the EU level to finance military projects.
The scheme will be used as a smokescreen to deepen European integration and relies on new loans hinging on Germany’s still formidable financial prowess and still favorable credit rating. This approach enables member states with overshooting budget deficits and national debt to take a free ride. This is because, for the time being, they can profit from lower interest rates due to the favorable credit rating of the erstwhile financial poster child Germany, which also assumes the lion share of the EU budget and EU debt without commensurate returns in any form. This is bound to create additional tensions between Germany and the European spendthrifts in particular. Once a truly patriotic leader, who puts national interests first, has emerged in Germany, the land of poets and thinkers is likely to leave the EU and the whole European project will probably collapse, since its most important financier will have disappeared.
Furthermore, there are other destructive forces at work creating fissures that make European disintegration more likely. For example, a second pernicious yo-yo effect is bound to manifest itself at the macroeconomic level. As happened before, the spending surge in 2025 will have to wind back in the form of tough austerity measures in the future - with at least the same force as the initial measures, or, to resort to the yo-yo metaphor, using the full rotational energy unleashed.
After all, previous austerity programs, instead of being mere flashes of inspiration of ill-intentioned and moody economists, were desperately needed as antidotes to reckless overspending in the past and to recuperate subsequent layouts for bailouts. In this context, it is noteworthy that Germany is at least in a better position than many other heavily indebted countries to increase spending precisely because it endured austerity programs before, including the introduction of the above-mentioned constitutionally enshrined debt brake, a sound vehicle promoting fiscal rectitude, in 2009 as a response to the 2008 financial crisis.
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Prof. Schlevogt’s Compass № 9: How to seal an election in five steps through information power
EU members states with particularly high debt-to-GDP ratios, such as Greece (158.2% at the end of Q3 2024), Italy (136.3%) and France (113.8%), whose dire straits are the result of a lack of financial rectitude in the past, are likely to be hit particularly hard by future austerity measures. As a consequence, populist politicians there will probably put the blame for unpopular budget consolidation efforts on the EU as a whole and ‘overly strict Germans’ (especially if Berlin again bails out the splurgers and demands tough fiscal measures). As a consequence of the painful policy zigzag between fiscal expansion and hang-over contraction, intra-European tensions will rise further and the very fundament of the EU again be damaged, increasing the chances of its final collapse.
Moreover, the Euro, the block’s common currency, is undermined by reckless, instability-inducing financial engineering. If countries with high budget deficits and national debt had their own national currency, they could devalue it to increase international competitiveness and thus increase demand-side growth through a rise in net exports. However, given that the spendthrifts inside the Eurozone are locked into a common currency, this option is not available to them. Instead, they must count on fiscal transfers from countries with better finances, whose citizens will not be amused by the solemn call to take on the burden of others in the name of “European solidarity”. Furthermore, the high budget deficits and national debt of individual member states can cause market panic, for example, since investors might be spooked by the specter of a sovereign debt crisis. Due to contagion in an intertwined financial system (including banks in sound economies holding debt of countries in trouble), problems may spill over to the rest of the Eurozone and trust in the system could be undermined. If, as a result of all these problems, the Euro is abandoned as a common currency, one prestigious European project will have failed and one important glue of European integration will have disappeared.
Incidentally, the reckless behavior of fiscally irresponsible member states such as Greece is also a classic case of postcontractual opportunism and time inconsistency in the form of reneging on ironclad promises, since they busted previously agreed-upon financial rules. More specifically, the Maastricht Criteria were introduced in 1992 as a basic requirement for the launch of the Euro in 1999. Among other things, those obliged countries that intended to join the Euro to adhere to strict convergence targets in terms of maximum permissible levels of budget deficits (3% of GDP) and national debt (60% of GDP) – precisely to avoid problems such as those outlined above. Furthermore, the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) was concluded in 1997, which specifies binding financial restrictions for all EU member states, including the same ceilings related to budget deficits and national debt as the Maastricht criteria.
However, several members with little concern for sound public finances missed the clearly specified financial conditions to which they had earlier agreed. For example, as mentioned above, the national debt of Greece amounted to a staggering 158.2% of GDP at the end of Q3 2024, far exceeding the 60% ceiling to which the country had committed.
The disrespect shown for the various institutional constraints, functioning as much-needed checks and balances in a fragile system, witnessed in the past and in the case of the gargantuan spending packages announced in March 2025 is highly problematic. This is because such behavior constitutes a negative precedent opening the floodgates to future economic trouble created by unhinged actors and further undermines the trust in the EU, thus precipitating its eventual disintegration. In this context, the fact that Germany, the former guardian of sound public finances in the EU, strayed from fiscal rectitude by softening constitutionally enshrined debt limits bodes particularly ill.
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Prof. Schlevogt’s Compass № 8: Israel risks falling into game-changing mind traps
Another factor contributing to European disintegration is the expected misappropriation of EU funds in the wake of the permission given in March 2025 to channel EU cohesion funds into defense projects. These cohesion funds, which are distributed to EU members with a gross national income (GNI) per capita that is lower than a threshold of 90% of the EU average (with an expected 37% of funds to be used to meet climate targets!), were destined to even out interregional differences inside the EU.
For Germany, which is the main contributor of cohesion funds, too, the scheme in essence meant that the country had to give its own money to foreign customers as a gift so that they could subsequently purchase products made by German companies and their competitors. Clearly, this giveaway had been approved by German politicians who did not pursue German interests.
Since less cohesion funds will flow to weak EU members, there will be less leveling out of existing disparities. The imbalances remaining as a result constitute another factor destabilizing the common European house. If more fiscal transfers will occur in the future to increase cohesion, the paymasters are likely to become disgruntled about another act of so-called solidarity, which will result in more disharmony inside the EU.
Finally, another dangerous centrifugal force will be the widening cleavage between Atlanticist EU members, who still believe in a strong defense alliance with the U.S., and Gaullists, keen on promoting European independence. This is partly due to the increasing disgruntlement of US loyalists about the gargantuan funds earmarked to build a standalone European defense capacity.
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In conclusion, it has been said that if you want to make God laugh, you should tell him about your plans.
Rather ironically, the clique of EU leaders with the blueprint of building a stronger European house in the form of a veritable fortress, through their reckless spending spree that hides critical tradeoffs, are likely to undermine the existing building’s very foundations and thus eventually cause its collapse.
In this context, it is truly amazing how inventive human beings tend to become when trying to justify more debt. In this regard, they are prone to display the same seemingly boundless creativity and criminal energy as used for scheming, carrying out and covering up heinous crimes, especially through highly ingenious lies that distort facts in a devilish fashion - after all, etymologically the diabolos is the one who ‘throws through’ things and via distortion cunningly sows confusion.
Without a grand supranational idea and noble mission based on truth and honesty, which act as an invisible glue, the European project will eventually falter, especially, given that the interests of European nations in the political, economic, social, military, cultural and other spheres diverge widely. Undoubtedly, this destructive process is accelerated by reckless financial engineering at the supranational and national level.
To avoid committing collective political and economic hara-kiri, EU leaders need to immediately stop prioritizing politics over sound economics and refrain from exploiting the irrationality and myopia of their citizens. Instead, they should act as real statesmen, building their own nations rather than Europe at the expense of their homelands, and enrich their people through smart and enlightened human-centered policies, which also include education as an antidote to economic naivety. To sum up, when the band begins to play (a sad song), it is high time to change course (and advisable to play a different tune)!
This article forms part of a series on the new European spending packages. Previous column: Prof. Schlevogt’s Compass No. 14: ‘Whatever it takes’ revisited – Euromaniacs exploit threat bias again, 19 March 2025.
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Site: RT - News
Poland wishes to remain only a regional NATO “logistics hub,” the country’s top officials have said
Poland has no plans to send its military to Ukraine in any role, the country’s top officials have said, responding to remarks by Keith Kellogg. US President Donald Trump’s special envoy had said Warsaw’s troops could be a part of a “resilience force” to be deployed to the country.
Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said on Tuesday that was not the case, stating that his country would only serve as a “logistics hub” and the government “does not plan and will not send Polish soldiers to Ukraine.”
“This is the clear position of the government, the president, and all political forces in Poland. Poland sees its very important role – and we are talking about this within the coalition led by Great Britain, France, most European countries, NATO countries – in stabilizing the situation in Ukraine after the long-awaited ceasefire or peace as a country supporting the logistics hub, infrastructure security, and protection of NATO’s eastern flank,” he said.
The message was further reinforced by Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski on Wednesday, when the top diplomat told web portal Onet that “Kellogg could have overinterpreted the fact that Poland would be part of this operation if it took place.”
Read more
Trump envoy reveals NATO troop deployment plans for Ukraine
“Stop manipulating, the head of government, the minister of defense, and I repeat: Poland will NOT send Polish soldiers to Ukraine,” Sikorski wrote on X shortly after the conversation with the outlet.
Trump’s special envoy told Fox Business on Tuesday that Washington was in talks with its European NATO allies about sending military contingents to Ukraine as part of a possible post-conflict settlement. Kellogg spoke about the potential “resilience force” being deployed west of the Dnieper River, which would place them “outside the contact zone.”
“This is a force referred to as the E3, but it’s actually now the E4 – when you include the Brits, the French, and the Germans, and in fact, the Poles as well,” he claimed.
A group of European NATO member states has for months been trying to muster a “coalition of the willing” for what they describe as a post-conflict peacekeeping force. Thus far however, Kiev’s backers have failed to agree on its exact goals, mission, or shape.
Russia has unequivocally rejected the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine in any form, arguing it would pose a direct threat and could ultimately trigger a nuclear conflict.
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Site: RT - News
The bloc’s members are reportedly rushing to agree to spend 5% of their GDP on defense ahead of a summit next month
NATO member states are struggling to overcome divisions and define the details of an increase in spending targets demanded by the US ahead of the bloc’s annual summit in The Hague, Bloomberg has reported.
US President Donald Trump has demanded that European NATO states spend 5% of their GDP on defense, warning that Washington may reconsider its commitments to the bloc if they fail. According to NATO’s latest report, ten of the bloc’s 32 members do note even spend 2% of GDP on defense, a baseline bloc target.
The US has argued that European NATO members must take primary responsibility for their own defense. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently described the current dynamic as the US alongside “a bunch of junior partners that aren’t doing their fair share.”
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is reportedly pushing for a compromise spending target of 3.5% of GDP within seven years, plus an additional 1.5% for wider defense-related spending, Bloomberg has cited senior diplomats as saying.
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German defense minister pushing for ‘drastic’ budget hike – Reuters
Foreign ministers are meeting in Türkiye on Wednesday and Thursday to define what qualifies under the 1.5% category, including military mobility, dual-use goods, and cybersecurity.
NATO defense ministers met in Brussels on Wednesday to debate the 3.5% target and review “highly classified lists of weapons and other capabilities” that are part of the bloc’s “ambitious” militarization drive, according to Bloomberg.
The talks come as Russian and Ukrainian delegations are expected to meet in Istanbul on Thursday to discuss possible steps toward ending the conflict.
Earlier media reports speculated Trump might skip the summit if the 5% spending demand is not met. US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker insisted on Tuesday that Trump will attend.
READ MORE: Russian delegation will be waiting for Ukrainians in Istanbul – Kremlin
The increased militarization of the bloc follows claims, long denied by Moscow, that Russia could attack a NATO member in coming years. Russia has accused the bloc of “irresponsibly stoking fears” of a fabricated threat.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the bloc “has degraded into an openly militarized entity.”
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Site: RT - News
It could help stabilize the Middle East and ultimately serve in the interests of the Jewish state
Media reports are increasingly suggesting that President Donald Trump may announce US recognition of a Palestinian state during his upcoming visit to the Middle East.
The White House is preparing to unveil a plan that would support the establishment of a Palestinian state – explicitly excluding Hamas, The Media Line reports, citing a Gulf diplomatic source. Such a move, the source claims, could dramatically shift the regional balance of power and pave the way for new normalization agreements between Israel and the Arab states.
The visit, scheduled from May 13 to 16, will include official stops in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates – countries with significant influence on both the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the region’s economic and energy dynamics. Notably, Saudi Arabia was also Trump’s first foreign destination during his initial term in office, underscoring its continued strategic importance.
A key component of the trip will be the US–Gulf Cooperation Council summit, set for May 14 in Riyadh, where Trump is expected to outline a renewed American vision for the region. In addition to security and diplomacy, the summit will cover trade, investment, and potential economic agreements, including possible tariff exemptions for American goods in the region as part of broader investment deals.
Analysts believe that if Trump does recognize a Palestinian state, it will not only mark a diplomatic milestone but also serve as a catalyst for expanding the Abraham Accords, the US-brokered normalization deals between Israel and several Arab nations which were introduced 2020. Trump officials, including Jason Greenblatt and Richard Goldberg, have set goals to broaden these accords by 2026, viewing Palestinian statehood – under revised terms – as key to Saudi participation.
Read more
Trump could recognize Palestine – media
Riyadh has repeatedly stated that normalization with Israel is contingent upon a credible roadmap toward Palestinian statehood and an end to hostilities in Gaza. A US announcement recognizing Palestine could thus serve as a turning point, easing Saudi entry into the Abraham Accords and shifting the regional paradigm.
Qatar’s position will also be pivotal, given its mediating role between Israel and Hamas; excluding the militant group from a future state will place Doha at the center of a new diplomatic equation.
Beyond the political stakes, the visit will also emphasize economic cooperation. The Trump administration is aiming to finalize trade and investment deals while promoting global oil price stability, which it views as vital to economic recovery in the US.
Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and former advisor, is expected to play a key role in negotiations with Saudi Arabia, given his close personal ties to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his prior role in the original Abraham Accords. If this initiative proceeds, it could redefine both American strategy in the region and the future of the Israeli-Arab normalization process.
Why does Israel hold exceptional importance for the US?
The relationship between the US and the State of Israel is not simply a strategic alliance between two nations – it is a unique phenomenon in international relations, built on a combination of geopolitical interests, shared values, historical ties, and deep cultural and religious connections. US support for Israel has long been systemic, bipartisan, and remarkably stable, making it one of the few enduring constants in American foreign policy, largely unaffected by changes in administration or global disruptions.
From a strategic standpoint, Israel plays a central role in American policy in the Middle East, a region that has been at the heart of global politics throughout the 20th and 21st centuries. Since Israel’s founding in 1948, the US has viewed it as a natural ally in a region often dominated by hostile or, during the Cold War, pro-Soviet regimes. Israel quickly proved itself to be a militarily capable and politically stable state, with a strong pro-Western orientation. Unlike many of America’s other regional partners, Israel has avoided revolutions, regime change, or anti-American shifts, making it not only useful but reliably aligned with US interests.
Yet strategic logic alone cannot fully explain the depth of US-Israeli ties. A strong ideological and cultural affinity reinforces the relationship. In the American public and political imagination, Israel is often portrayed as “a democracy among dictatorships” – a nation that shares core Western values such as a liberal economy, pluralism, and freedom of speech and religion. This image, consistently reinforced by Israeli diplomacy and American media, positions support for Israel as support for democratic civilization in a region seen as volatile and authoritarian.
Read more
Israel issues warning over Palestine recognition
A major pillar of this support is the religious and ideological backing provided by American evangelical Christians, who make up a large segment of the Republican base. For many evangelicals, Israel is not just a political partner – it is the Holy Land, central to biblical prophecy and eschatological beliefs. According to their theology, the return of Jews to the Promised Land and the restoration of the Jewish state are signs of the approaching end times and the Second Coming of Christ. While rooted in theology, this belief has real political consequences: evangelical groups consistently pressure US leaders to offer unwavering support for Israel. Donald Trump, for example, heavily relied on evangelical backing, which played a key role in his 2018 decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem.
Another influential factor is the American Jewish community, one of the most politically engaged and organized demographic groups in the country. US Jews have historically played a vital role in public discourse, media, academia, and – crucially – campaign financing. Organizations such as AIPAC have successfully built a durable lobbying infrastructure that secures congressional and executive support for Israel. In this context, support for Israel has become a political norm in the US, and any deviation – such as criticism of settlement policy or calls for Palestinian statehood – is often viewed as politically risky.
Historical memory also plays a powerful role. In the wake of the Holocaust, the idea that the Jewish people must have a secure national homeland gained strong moral legitimacy. For many Americans – especially those shaped by World War II and Cold War narratives – supporting Israel is seen as an act of historical justice and ethical responsibility. These sentiments are deeply embedded in American education and cultural production, making the pro-Israel stance virtually unassailable in mainstream discourse.
Together, these factors create a situation where US support for Israel transcends conventional geopolitics. It is not just a transactional partnership, but a deeply rooted political-cultural alignment shaped by overlapping strategic interests, religious convictions, historical legacies, and domestic political structures. Even when Israeli policies draw international criticism – such as actions in Gaza, settlement expansion, or restrictions on Palestinians – US support tends to remain steadfast, often in defiance of global public opinion.
This exceptional relationship is not a temporary arrangement or convenient alliance – it is part of the structural identity of US foreign policy. The idea of rethinking these ties is rarely taken seriously in American politics, as it would challenge moral sensibilities, religious beliefs, national security logic, and entrenched electoral alliances. For this reason, Israel continues to occupy a privileged position in US foreign affairs, receiving unwavering bipartisan support regardless of changes in international context or leadership in Washington.
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Trump announces gesture of ‘good faith’ by Hamas
The evolution of US policy on Palestine
For over seventy years, Washington’s position on the Palestinian question has reflected not only the shifting dynamics of the Israeli-Arab conflict but also the broader evolution of American global priorities, ideological frameworks, and regional alliances. From its early and unwavering support for the creation of Israel to periods of active diplomacy and, more recently, attempts at strategic rebalancing, Washington’s approach has been shaped by domestic political considerations, pressures from allies, and the competition for influence in the Middle East.
In 1947, the US endorsed the UN Partition Plan that called for the division of British-mandated Palestine into separate Jewish and Arab states. President Harry Truman was among the first world leaders to recognize the State of Israel in May 1948, cementing America’s role as Israel’s primary international sponsor. However, the fate of the Palestinian Arab population – their rights, status, and national aspirations – was largely sidelined. For the next two decades, Washington viewed the conflict primarily through the lens of Cold War geopolitics, prioritizing Israel’s role as a pro-Western stronghold over the unresolved plight of the Palestinians.
It was only after the 1967 Six-Day War, in which Israel occupied the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem, that the US began to acknowledge that a lasting peace would require a solution to the Palestinian statehood issue. The Nixon and Carter administrations gradually shifted toward diplomacy, and UN Security Council Resolution 242 laid the foundation for the principle of ‘land for peace.’ President Carter’s role in brokering the 1978 Camp David Accords was a landmark, though the Palestinian issue remained largely peripheral to the Israel-Egypt peace treaty.
For years, the US refused to engage with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), branding it a terrorist entity. But by the late 1980s, following the outbreak of the First Intifada and Yasser Arafat’s renunciation of violence and recognition of Israel’s right to exist, the US opened diplomatic channels with the PLO – marking a significant turning point. In the 1990s, Washington became the chief mediator of the peace process, organizing the 1991 Madrid Conference and, under President Clinton, facilitating the 1993 Oslo Accords. These agreements saw mutual recognition between Israel and the PLO and established the Palestinian Authority, formalizing America’s endorsement of a two-state solution as the only viable framework for peace.
Read more
US-Israeli hostage released by Hamas
However, efforts to finalize the process faltered. The 2000 Camp David Summit, which aimed to resolve final status issues – including borders, refugees, and Jerusalem – ended without an agreement. The subsequent eruption of the Second Intifada dampened US enthusiasm for direct mediation. After the attacks of September 11, 2001, American priorities in the region shifted dramatically toward counterterrorism. Under President George W. Bush, Hamas was designated a terrorist organization, and its electoral victory in Gaza in 2006 further fragmented Palestinian leadership. Although Bush proposed a ‘Road Map to Peace,’ tangible progress remained elusive.
President Barack Obama voiced support for Palestinian statehood and criticized Israeli settlement expansion, but his administration made little headway in advancing negotiations. Secretary of State John Kerry’s efforts in the 2010s collapsed amid deep mistrust and political resistance, both in the region and in Washington, where pro-Israel lobbying groups strongly opposed any perceived tilt toward Palestinian demands.
Under President Trump, US policy took a decisive turn in Israel’s favor. His administration recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, relocated the US embassy there, ended funding for UNRWA, and shuttered the PLO’s diplomatic mission in Washington. Trump’s ‘Deal of the Century’ proposed a fragmented Palestinian entity with limited sovereignty and full Israeli security control. The Palestinian leadership rejected it outright. Nevertheless, the Trump era saw the signing of the Abraham Accords, normalizing Israel’s relations with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. Palestine, notably, was excluded – its statehood effectively reduced to a bargaining chip in broader regional realignments.
The Biden administration mildly recalibrated course by restoring aid to Palestinians, reestablishing ties with the PLO, and formally reaffirming Washington’s commitment to a two-state solution. However, preoccupied with domestic priorities and strategic competition with China, the administration largely refrained from deep involvement in the peace process. The US continued to promote the expansion of the Abraham Accords, without placing significant pressure on Israel to address core Palestinian concerns.
Read more
Prof. John Mearsheimer: Israel owns the Trump administration, Israel is a liability for the US
Now, reports suggest that Trump may once again shift the paradigm by recognizing a Palestinian state – this time explicitly without Hamas in its future structure. If such a move materializes, it would mark a dramatic turn in US policy and reflect a calculated effort to unlock Saudi-Israeli normalization, for which a credible solution to the Palestinian question remains a precondition.
In the long term, the recognition of Palestinian statehood – if anchored in genuine sovereignty and political viability – could prove to be a stabilizing force for the region and ultimately serve Israel’s interests by integrating it further into the Arab world. Yet such a move would clash with the hardline stance of Israel’s current right-wing government, risking a rift between Washington and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Moreover, any serious shift toward a two-state solution would require a transformation of Israeli domestic politics, potentially leading to internal polarization and upheaval.
In this light, a possible US recognition of Palestine is far more than symbolic. It is a profoundly political act, with the power to reshape regional dynamics, recalibrate US alliances, and reignite long-stalled hopes for a just and lasting peace – but not without significant costs and risks on both sides.
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Site: Zero HedgeAverage Americans Poised for Double-Digit Tax Cuts In 2027, Sparking Partisan ClashTyler Durden Wed, 05/14/2025 - 11:45
A sweeping Republican tax overhaul proposal, estimated to deliver double-digit percentage reductions in tax bills for average-income Americans, is drawing mounting opposition in the Senate over its accompanying cuts to health care and clean energy programs - underscoring the internal divisions complicating Republican efforts to advance a unified economic agenda.
According to a new analysis from the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), households earning between $30,000 and $80,000 would see their federal taxes drop by approximately 15 percent in 2027 under the House GOP plan. Americans earning between $15,000 and $30,000 would see an even steeper 21 percent decline - at least initially.
But those same low-income earners would see their tax bills rise sharply in later years unless extended, with increases of 12 percent in 2029 and 20 percent in 2030, the JCT found. The report attributed some of those changes to proposed reforms of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), a benefit for low-income workers that Republicans argue is vulnerable to improper payments.
While the report’s topline numbers have fueled Republican claims that the proposal is middle-class focused, Democrats seized on the overall distribution of tax cuts in dollar terms, Politico reports. Taxpayers earning more than $500,000 are slated to receive an aggregate cut of about $170 billion in 2027 - nearly triple the $59 billion going to households earning $30,000 to $80,000.
The proposal has already provoked heated exchanges in the House Ways and Means Committee, where lawmakers debated the fairness and sustainability of the tax package. Democrats derided the bill as a boon to the wealthy, while Republicans pointed to new breaks for tips, overtime, and seniors as evidence of its broader appeal.
The report is not a complete picture of winners and losers under Republicans’ plans. It doesn’t include a potential deal among lawmakers to further increase the SALT cap, beyond a proposed $30,000 limit.
The report also only looks at the tax side of Republican plans, and does not account for changes in spending programs, like Medicaid. -Politico
"It's a trick," said Rep. Gwen Moore (D-WI). "You do it temporarily so you can get through the 2026 election" and "then these benefits for children and elders and workers disappear, while the tax benefits for the ultra-wealthy soar."
Senate Republicans Balk
Yet beyond the debate over tax cuts, the House plan is facing stiff resistance in the Senate for how it proposes to offset some of the revenue losses: by slashing Medicaid and rolling back key clean energy incentives passed under the Biden administration.
A Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimate found that the House bill’s Medicaid reforms could result in 8.6 million people losing health care coverage, largely due to new work requirements, cost-sharing mandates, and restrictions on how states finance their Medicaid programs.
Several Senate Republicans voiced concern over the health care implications, especially for rural areas.
"These are working people in particular who are going to have to pay more," said Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO), referring to new cost-sharing rules. He warned that changes to provider taxes - which states use to draw federal Medicaid dollars - could reduce coverage in his state and strain rural hospitals.
"I continue to maintain my position we should not be cutting Medicaid benefits," Hawley said.
Senator Susan Collins (R-ME), said the proposed treatment of provider taxes "would be very harmful to Maine’s hospitals," echoing concerns raised by other senators from rural and Medicaid-reliant states.
Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), also pointed to the disproportionate burden that Medicaid cuts would place on states like hers, calling the issue a key sticking point in ongoing Senate discussions.
Not So Fast?
In addition to health care, some senate Republicans are also wary of the House’s aggressive plans to unwind tax credits for clean energy and hydrogen development, incentives championed in the Inflation Reduction Act and credited with bringing manufacturing investments and jobs to red and purple states alike.
Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC), who faces a competitive reelection race next year, expressed concern over quickly ending climate initiatives - suggesting that the House language on energy tax rollbacks would need to be revised.
"You can’t shock the markets by doing it all at once," Tillis said of the proposed clean energy phaseouts.
Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) also flagged potential impacts to her state’s clean hydrogen initiatives, saying she would review the House’s plan to eliminate the 45V hydrogen production credit, which could affect nearly $1 billion in planned federal support for the Appalachian Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub.
The House GOP plan is expected to pass narrowly along party lines, but Senate Republicans made clear this week that the legislation will require significant changes to win broader support in the upper chamber.
"We are coordinating very closely with our House counterparts," said Senate Minority Whip John Thune of South Dakota. "We know they have to get 218 votes... but it’s likely we’ll have a Senate substitute."
As Republican leaders try to reconcile competing priorities — delivering tax relief, restraining federal spending, and maintaining political support in swing states — the path forward for the legislation remains uncertain.
"How we navigate this," said Murkowski, "is something we’re all trying to wander through."
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Site: Zero HedgeAnnouncement On COVID-19 Vaccines For Kids Coming Soon: FDA CommissionerTyler Durden Wed, 05/14/2025 - 11:25
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,
Health officials are poised to make an announcement on COVID-19 vaccines, the commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said.
“That is something that’s being discussed right now,” Dr. Marty Makary, the commissioner, said in an interview, released on May 12, after being asked by political activist Charlie Kirk about whether COVID-19 vaccines will remain on the childhood vaccination schedule.
“I think you’re going to see some announcement on that in the coming weeks, but I know they are trying to review all of the scientific data.”
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health and Human Services, which maintains the schedule, did not respond to a request for comment.
Makary told Kirk that there’s no evidence available at this time that supports giving healthy children additional COVID-19 vaccine doses.
“That evidence does not exist, and so we’re not going to rubberstamp things at the FDA,” he said.
“I don’t think you’re going to see the CDC pushing COVID shots in young, healthy children.”
The FDA commissioner, who expressed concern before joining the agency about vaccinating children, noted that there is no data from randomized, controlled trials for the COVID-19 vaccines that are currently available. The regulatory agency cleared the vaccines from Moderna, Pfizer, and Novavax in 2024, pointing to animal testing and data from previous versions of the shots.
“There’s no good randomized control data that the current version, the latest formulation, of the COVID shot, is necessary for young, healthy children. Other leading countries in Europe have recommended against it,” Makary said.
“So I think you’re going to hear something forthcoming.”
The CDC, in 2023, added the COVID-19 vaccines to the vaccination schedule, following a recommendation from its vaccine advisory panel.
The same panel said in April that it is leaning toward narrowing the current universal recommendation for COVID-19 vaccination. In the same meeting, officials noted that the United Kingdom and Australia are among the countries that do not recommend COVID-19 vaccine boosters for healthy children.
Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said that same month that officials were considering removing the COVID-19 vaccines from the schedule. Makary has said he would support that move.
The CDC, which has an acting director at present, has not commented on the prospect of the schedule being adjusted.
The American Academy of Pediatrics is among the organizations that support the current COVID-19 vaccine recommendations. The group says on its site that the vaccines are safe and effective.
The FDA is set to meet with its vaccine advisers on May 22 to discuss selecting updates to the COVID-19 vaccines, with Novavax saying it plans to participate in the meeting. Pfizer and Moderna have not responded to queries.
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Site: RT - News
The US president has reportedly backed off the renaming of the Persian Gulf in light of ongoing nuclear talks in Oman
US President Donald Trump has backed off a reported plan to rename the Persian Gulf, CNN wrote on Wednesday, citing a source familiar with the matter. The move was described as a concession to Iran amid ongoing nuclear talks between the two countries.
Earlier this month, the Associated Press reported that Trump was planning to refer to the waterway off Iran’s southern coast as the “Arabian Gulf’ during his May 13-16 Middle East trip. However, Trump later told reporters he would “have to make a decision,” adding that he did not want to “hurt anybody’s feelings.”
The US president reversed the idea in recent days, the source said, as Tehran has signaled strong opposition to the renaming amid ongoing talks.
Washington and Tehran have held several rounds of negotiations in Oman over Iran’s nuclear program. The talks, described by both sides as constructive, have been overshadowed by rising tensions in Yemen, where the US and UK have intensified strikes against allegedly Iran-backed Houthi militants. Trump’s announcement of a bombing pause in early May was aimed at building momentum for the ongoing talks, sources told CNN at the time.
Speaking at the Gulf Cooperation Council summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, Trump said he wanted to “make a deal” with Iran.
Trump pulled the US out of the 2015 UN-backed nuclear deal during his first term, accusing Iran of violating the agreement – a charge Tehran denies. The Islamic Republic began scaling back its commitments after the 2020 US drone strike that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani.
Read more
Iran rejects ‘unacceptable’ US nuclear demand
The UK, Germany, and France have urged Iran to abandon its nuclear program in the coming months or face new sanctions, UK Ambassador to Israel Simon Walters said in February.
Iran has also been accused of increasing production of near-weapons-grade uranium, which it denies.
The naming of the gulf has long been a point of contention between Iran and the Arab states. Tehran insists on calling it the Persian Gulf, citing historical evidence and ancient maps linking the area to its territory. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and others, however, refer to it as the Arabian Gulf or simply ‘the Gulf.’
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi called the renaming proposals “indicative of hostile intent toward Iran and its people.”
Trump has previously used symbolic renaming in foreign policy. In January, he signed an executive order to rename the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America.”
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Site: RT - News
The European Commission acted improperly by refusing to release communications with Pfizer to the media, the ruling states
The European Commission wrongly denied the media access to secret text messages between its president, Ursula von der Leyen, and the CEO of pharma giant Pfizer, exchanged during negotiations of a multi-billion dollar Covid-19 vaccine deal, the Court of Justice of the European Union ruled on Wednesday.
The so-called “Pfizergate” case centers on a 2021 interview von der Leyen gave to the New York Times (NYT) in which she claimed she had been negotiating a deal for 900 million COVID vaccine shots with Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla via sms messages.
The NYT subsequently filed an access request for the messages, to which the EC claimed the texts, which have never been released, were not in its possession.
The court ruled that the EC “cannot merely state that it does not hold the requested documents but must provide credible explanations enabling the public and the Court to understand why those documents cannot be found.”
It also criticized the Commission for failing to justify why the texts were not retained and to clarify how they were deleted.
Read more
Von der Leyen commission loses Covid vaccine case
In response, the EC said it recognized the need for greater transparency and promised to issue a new decision with more detailed reasoning. It did not, however, commit to releasing the messages in question. The ruling can be appealed to the European Court of Justice.
A similar CJEU judgment last July found that the EC lacked transparency in how it negotiated vaccine contracts with Pfizer and AstraZeneca. The deals, signed in 2020 and 2021 and worth approximately €2.7 billion ($3 billion), were shielded from disclosure to European Parliament members on the grounds of protecting commercial interests.
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Site: RT - News
Dhaka has said the disqualification of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League is necessary to protect national security and sovereignty
Bangladesh’s interim government has decided to ban former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League party and bar it from running in the next general election, saying it is necessary to protect national security and sovereignty, according to local media.
The ban was imposed under a revised anti-terrorism law, which was introduced overnight on Monday.
Shafiqul Alam, press secretary to Interim Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus, defended the ban and told state-run news agency Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha (BSS) that elections in the country were an internal matter and that other countries should respect the sovereign will of the Bangladeshi people.
Alam’s remarks on Tuesday were aimed at neighboring India, which has backed the Awami League for years.
Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal had described the ban as a “concerning development” that was imposed without due process.
Read more
Bangladesh rejects Tulsi Gabbard’s criticism over alleged abuse of minorities
The Awami League, led by former Prime Minister Hasina, was ousted from power on August 5 last year in a student-led uprising. Hasina fled to India, and Nobel Peace Laureate Muhammad Yunus took charge of an interim government. Ties between the two South Asian neighbors have been tense since that time.
New Delhi has repeatedly called for the early holding of free, fair and inclusive elections in Bangladesh.
No date has been finalized for the next general election in Bangladesh, which could take place anytime between December 2025 and June 2026.
On the sidelines of the sixth BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) Summit in Bangkok in April, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Yunus and conveyed New Delhi’s desire “to forge a positive and constructive relationship with Bangladesh based on pragmatism.” He highlighted, however, that “rhetoric that vitiates the environment is best avoided.”
At the meeting with Modi, Yunus broached the issue of extraditing the former prime minister.
The interim government has been seeking the extradition of Hasina and members of her government to face trial on charges including murder, torture, abduction, crimes against humanity, and genocide. New Delhi has not publicly commented on the request.
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Site: Zero HedgeDon Lemon Rages Over White Refugees: "Most Racist Shit Ever!"Tyler Durden Wed, 05/14/2025 - 10:45
Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,
Ex-CNN host Don Lemon had a total meltdown over Trump resettling a small number of white South African refugees in America, calling it “the most racist shit ever.”
A mere 59 Afrikaners arrived at Dulles International Airport outside Washington on Monday, prompting widespread derision and demonization from leftists and the media, who claimed they were not real refugees while also monstering them as white supremacists.
The backlash to the refugees arriving in America was so vociferous that it became a stunning mask off moment in proving that anti-white hatred is still mainstream.
Don Lemon hyperventilated over “this South African farmer bullshit, which is the most blatantly obvious racist shit ever,” implying that Afrikaners couldn’t be refugees because they “own most of the land and the property” in South Africa.
Lemon failed to acknowledge that this is precisely why they are being targeted, sometimes violently, and officially by government discrimination in the form of compulsory land grabs.
The former CNN anchor’s main bone of contention was that Trump was “trying to cut down on immigration from other countries” while favoring people from white countries.
Don Lemon has a meltdown over South African refugees: “The most obvious racist sht ever”
— Defiant L’s (@DefiantLs) May 13, 2025
pic.twitter.com/eNXmnXTEXuBecause legally admitting 59 white people from South Africa is totally the same as the millions upon millions of illegal immigrants who entered America under Joe Biden, many of whom were violent criminals.
Lemon then ludicrously tried to justify the South African government taking land from farmers without compensation by claiming it’s only for land that isn’t being used.
Who decides whether the land is being used or not?
The same government seizing it without compensation.
I’m sure that’s a completely impartial and fair process!
Suddenly developing a flair for per capita statistics that leftists can’t seem to grasp when it comes to crime, Lemon complained that white South Africans own more land than blacks despite being a minority of the population.
Apparently, this alone, in true Communist dictatorship style, is enough to justify the government just stealing it from them without compensation.
As we highlighted earlier, African-American influencers are now suggesting that the white refugees should be violently targeted because they’re “racist,” proving precisely why they needed to flee South Africa in the first place.
“These racist motherfuckers gonna find out the hard way, they’re gonna fuck around and find out, you can’t talk that shit over here on our soil,” he said.
Tiktoker threatens the immigrants from South Africa and says they’re all racist and Trump brought them here to be racist
— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) May 14, 2025
“They’re gonna find out the hard way… These people will start getting their ass whooped”
Seems totally normal and stable… pic.twitter.com/NuRrBxweap“So what’s gonna happen is that these people will start getting their ass whooped…we’re gonna start lighting motherfuckers up because they don’t know how to talk to black people in America,” he added.
The influencer then complained that when white South African refugees start getting violently attacked, people will complain about it, prompting more discrimination against black Americans.
* * *
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
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Site: Zero HedgeWTI Rebounds From Overnight Dip But 'Drill, Baby, Drill' Remains ElusiveTyler Durden Wed, 05/14/2025 - 10:39
Oil prices are marginally lower this morning after four straight sessions of gains driven by tariff optimism, following a bigger than expected build in crude stocks reported by API overnight.
The rise in stocks comes as OPEC+ readies to add another 411,000 barrel per day tranche of supply to the market as it unwinds 2.2-million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts. The new supply is likely to check prices as Saudi Arabia looks to regain market share and respond to a U.S. call for lower prices, even as U.S. President Donald Trump began the first presidential trip of his current term with a visit to Riyadh on Tuesday.
"While OPEC officials maintain that the US played no role in the decision to accelerate the phase -in of the voluntary barrels, the oil price environment has provided a beneficial backdrop to the Presidential visit from the Washington standpoint, Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note.
All eyes now on the official data for confirmation of builds...
API
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Crude +4.29mm
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Cushing -850k
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Gasoline -1.37mm
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Distillates -3.68mm
DOE
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Crude +3.45mm
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Cushing -1.07mm
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Gasoline -1.02mm
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Distillates -3.16mm
The official data echoe API's report with a sizable crude build but draws at the Cushing Hub and in products...
Source: Bloomberg
In a week when the Trump administration proposes a major bill to refill the SPR, total crude stocks rose around 4mm barrels (including 528k barrels to the SPR)...
Source: Bloomberg
US crude production rose very modestly last week but along with the rig count is basically unchanged since President Trump's election...
Source: Bloomberg
OPEC released its May Monthly Oil Market Report on Wednesday, sticking with its forecast for 2025 demand growth of 1.3-million barrels per day, higher last week's estimate from the Energy Information Administration for demand growth of one-million bpd this year.
The International Energy Agency will release its monthly outlook on Thursday.
The cartel also lowered its estimate from production growth for countries outside of OPEC+ by 100,000 bpd to 0.8-million bpd.
WTI is rallying back from overnight weakness...
Finally, the question many are asking is when will see prices at the pump lower as Refineries are expected to keep ramping up ahead of the summer, allowing nationwide crude processing rates to remain at the highest seasonal level since 2019.
...and along with those lower prices, lower inflation.
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Site: Zero HedgeAnimal SpiritsTyler Durden Wed, 05/14/2025 - 10:25
By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist At Rabobank
Animal Spirits
The NASDAQ and S&P500 pumped higher yesterday as trade war détente and a lower-than-expected US CPI print fuelled optimism. The S&P500 is now in the black year-to-date and the NASDAQ is in bull market territory, despite the index remaining south of where it was on January 1st. Crude oil extended gains for a fourth-straight session, rising 2.57%, and yields on 10-year Treasuries finished mostly unchanged after trading in a 6bp range.
US April CPI came in at 0.2% M-o-M for both the headline and core measurements. This takes year-on-year CPI down to 2.3%, versus an expected reading of 2.4%. Core services (shelter, principally) was the main driver of price rises, followed by energy as a ~$10/bbl fall in crude over the course of the month was more than offset by rising electricity and natural gas prices. Core goods barely registered and food prices declined. Egg prices fell by 12.7%, the largest monthly fall since 1984, which will no doubt please a President who has elevated the price of eggs as an indicator of economic policy competence.
Egg prices down 12.7%, biggest drop since March 1984, second biggest drop on record pic.twitter.com/AWcuDPb8qh
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 13, 2025Digging through the entrails, there were some hints of potential tariff impacts on prices. Audio equipment experienced its largest-ever monthly rise (8.8%) and price rises for home furnishings were up 1% after remaining flat in March. On the flip side, apparel prices actually fell during the month despite sharp falls in the Dollar spot index over the course of both March and April. Taken together with tariffs, a weaker Dollar would usually be suggestive of higher prices for imported goods.
It's hard to separate the signal from the noise here because there are a lot of uncertainties at play. Consumer prices for products sold in April likely relate to stock that was brought into the country during the import surge before Liberation Day. This means that the cost basis of many of these products will not include the April tariff impact. Additionally, the influence of a weaker US Dollar over the course of March and April may be mitigated to some degree by importers forward-hedging foreign exchange exposures. There is also the possibility of both exporters and importers “eating” some of the impact of the tariffs through lower export prices and lower importer margins. Trump and Bessent have both claimed that it would be the exporters who wear the brunt of tariff impacts, but this will ultimately depend on the price elasticity of demand for individual goods.
OIS futures are now pricing 53bps worth of easing in the Fed Funds rate by year end compared to 66.5bps at the end of last week. That was before the 90-day reduction in tariffs was agreed between the United States and China. The September FOMC meeting remains the first meeting that is fully-priced for a cut, but pricing has declined from -35.3bps on Friday to -25.8bps as of this morning. Clearly, while equity markets are welcoming the better than expected CPI result, the vagaries of trade policy are a more important influence on the path of the Fed Funds rate.
That brings us back to the point that economics and markets cannot be taken as an abstraction from everything else that is going on, because we actually live in a world of political economy. On that score, President Trump arrived in Riyadh yesterday and swiftly announced that Saudi Arabia will be investing $1 trillion in the United States. The real figure is disputed and might be $600 billion (as announced by the White House) or as low as $300 billion. According to a White House fact sheet the deal includes a $142 billion defence sales agreement that will see new aerospace and missile defence equipment sold to Saudi Arabia.
Trump also announced during the visit that the United States will be lifting sanctions on Syria, apparently at the urging of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and Turkish President Erdogan. Saudi Arabia and Turkey had been two of the parties backing Syrian rebels (along with Qatar, who are gifting the USA a luxury jet) against the Iran and Russia-backed Assad regime. Is the United States now encouraging development to fill a regional power vacuum in a similar vein to what it did post-WWII? Is it a coincidence that the US Treasury Department just announced sanctions on more than 20 companies it claims have been involved in shipping Iranian crude oil to China (a key backer of both Iran and Russia)?
This comes as China criticizes the terms of the recent trade agreement struck between the United Kingdom and the United States. Much has been made of the agreement’s limited impact in economic terms, but China’s Foreign Ministry seems to think that the agreement is substantive from a geopolitical perspective, and freezes China out from investment and trade opportunities in the UK.
So, the question now is: has the UK signed up for the worst trade deal in the history of trade deals? Or will other countries end up signing similar agreements that likewise seek to isolate Chinese trade and supply chain interests?
Animal spirits may be back as markets rejoice at trade détente for the time being, but all of the elements that led to trade conflict in the first place are still present. -
Site: southern orders
Greek Catholic Bishop: Synod on Synodality Is Not Like Eastern Synods
Greek Byzantine Catholic Bishop Manuel Nin stresses that Synod means, above all, journeying with Christ and warns against “Christian parliamentarianism.”
Bishop Manuel Nin is seen before an open-air service at the 102th German Catholics Day on the Castle Square in Stuttgart, southern Germany, on May 26, 2022. (photo: Thomas Kienzle / AFP via Getty Images)
Synodality in all Christian Churches, both East and West, cannot be a kind of reflection of the modern world whereby the Church becomes like a “modern Western democracy, possibly parliamentary, where everyone can say everything,” he warned. The life of the Church, he said, “has never been a form of democracy in which everyone decides everything by majority rules.”
READ THE REST OF THE NATIONAL CATHOLIC REGISTER’S ARTICLE HERE!
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Site: Zero HedgeTrump To Scrutinize Pardons Biden Issued Before Leaving OfficeTyler Durden Wed, 05/14/2025 - 08:40
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,
President Donald Trump’s newly tabbed pardon attorney said on May 13 that his work will include scrutinizing pardons that former President Joe Biden issued just before leaving office in January.
“I do think that the Biden pardons need some scrutiny. And they need scrutiny because we want pardons to matter and to be accepted and to be something that’s used correctly,” Ed Martin, the pardon attorney, told reporters during a press briefing in Washington.
“So I do think we’re going to take a hard look at how they went and what they did and if they’re, I don’t know, but null and void, I’m not sure how that operates,” he added.
Biden’s pardons, issued in his final hours in office, went to multiple individuals, including former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.).
The pardons were for conduct for which the individuals had not been charged.
Biden said at the time that the people “do not deserve to be the targets of unjustified and politically motivated prosecutions.”
Trump said in March that the pardons were “hereby declared void” because, he alleged, they were done with an autopen, or a device that lets people sign documents with preloaded signatures.
Martin said on Tuesday that the pardons were not particularly reasonable but that he did not necessarily think the use of an autopen would nullify them.
Martin is stepping down as the interim U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia on Wednesday. Trump on May 8 named Martin pardon attorney and director of the Department of Justice’s weaponization working group after some senators publicly opposed Martin’s nomination to take the U.S. attorney post permanently.
Asked later on Tuesday about the resignation of Denise Cheung, who had been chief of the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia’s Criminal Division, Martin said that he had asked Cheung to look into what he described as unprecedented conduct, or $6.7 billion transferred from the government to a nonprofit that was created just six months prior.
That kind of conduct “does make you pause,” Martin said. “That’s what you’re supposed to do, is pause, just like if the Biden pardons are unprecedented in their extent. Right back to when Hunter Biden was whatever age you say, ’that’s uncommon, we ought to take a look at that.'”
Biden also pardoned his son, Hunter Biden, 55.
Martin also said that the weaponization working group has been looking at various actions taken during the Biden administration, including the prosecution of people who participated in the Jan. 6, 2021, breach of the U.S. Capitol. He said that under him, the group will be giving more updates on its work and is exploring the launch of a portal that will enable people to provide them tips.
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Site: Zero HedgeFutures Rise After Erasing 2025 Loss As Meltup Just Won't StopTyler Durden Wed, 05/14/2025 - 08:27
US equity futures are modestly in the green with tech/AI stocks leading and small caps lagging as equities may see some profit-taking given the relentless strength of the rally. Stocks has now erased their YTD losses, and the recovery pace of the past 6 weeks is the fastest since the 1980s. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.2%, near session highs after reversing earlier losses; Nasdaq futures gain 0.4% with chips higher on new deals being made by Trump in the Middle East regarding chips/AI infra build. Pre-mkt, NVDA/TSLA are higher with the rest of Mag7 mixed but Semis are higher though other Cyclicals are slightly weaker. AI theme is higher, too. The yield curve is twisting steeper as USD strength fizzles sparked by concerns Trump may turn to dollar strength next (following overnight Bloomberg report there was discussion between US and SKorea on dollar strength). Commodities are lower as Energy sells off, and gold is flat around $3220. The macro data focus is on mortgage applications (up 1.1%) and XHB is +5% over the last two days.
In premarket trading, magnificent seven stocks are mixed: Nvidia leads gainers as the semiconductor giant is on track to extend gains after a deal to supply chips to Saudi Arabian AI company Humain for a massive data center project (Nvidia +3%, Tesla +2%, Alphabet +0.6%, Meta +0.7%, Amazon +0.2%, Apple -0.3%, Microsoft -0.3%). Super Micro Computer (SMCI) rises 14%, set to extend Tuesday’s 16% rally, after Saudi Arabia-based data center company DataVolt signs a multi-year partnership agreement with the beleaguered US company. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- American Eagle (AEO) slumps 12% after the retailer withdrew its fiscal year 2025 guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainty.
- Aurora Innovation (AUR) plunges 18% after Uber, a leading backer, said it plans to sell $1 billion of senior notes exchangeable into shares of the self-driving technology developer.
- Cboe Global Markets Inc. (CBOE) slips 1.5% after Morgan Stanley double downgraded the stock, recommending lower defensives exposure on the back of greater than expected tariff de-escalation between China and the US.
- Dynatrace (DT) rises 3% after the analytics platform company forecast 1Q revenue that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Exelixis (EXEL) climbs 4% after the maker of cancer drug Cabometyx raised its projection for revenue this year.
- Grail Inc. (GRAL) tumbles 13% after the cancer-detection firm posted 1Q revenue that fell short of expectations.
- KKR (KKR) rises 1.8% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the private equity firm to overweight, recommending it as a way to play the anticipated capital markets recovery.
- Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) slips 2% after the company posted 1Q results that showed higher spending to attract new clients and protect against potential bad loans.
- Septerna (SEPN) soars 62% after the biotech said it’s partnering with Novo Nordisk A/S on the development of oral pills for obesity and type-2 diabetes.
After the recent faceripping rally left the S&P 500 flat for the year, Wall Street strategists - who were skeptical stocks would rebound at all - are now skeptical about how much further stocks can run. Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer warned that equities remain vulnerable if deteriorating economic data reignites recession worries.
“Investors got very bearish in April, missed the market rebound and then were forced to chase it,” said Lilian Chovin, head of asset allocation at Coutts & Co. With focus shifting to the impact of tariffs, he’s using the rebound to take some profit and reduce his equities overweight.
After its recent rally, the dollar weakened 0.4% after Bloomberg reported that the US and South Korea discussed their currency policies in early May, fueling speculation President Donald Trump’s administration is open to a weaker greenback. The won jumped more than 1% and neighboring currencies, including the Japanese yen, also rose against the dollar.
Investors took news of the talks between South Korea and the US as reason to suspect foreign governments may accept strength in their exchange rates to smooth the way to trade deals with the US. Trump and other administration officials have argued weakness in Asian currencies versus the dollar have handed an unfair advantage for regional exporters over US rivals.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 dipped 0.2% as stocks paused for breath after the rally spurred by trade optimism. Insurance, utility and telecoms stocks outperform, while autos and consumer products lag. Among individual stocks, Burberry surges after the luxury group’s fourth-quarter retail sales beat estimates and the company announced plans to cut almost a fifth of its workforce. Shares in tour operator TUI slide after summer bookings showed a negative inflection. Here are some of the more notable movers:
- Burberry shares rise as much as 9.9% after the British luxury group’s 4Q retail sales beat estimates, sparking hopes among analysts that the company is seeing the early signs of a turnaround.
- EON shares advance as much as 1.6% after the German utility reported strong first-quarter figures, with analysts saying consensus estimates are likely to rise after the report.
- ABN Amro shares outperform as the lender reports a 1Q profit that was bigger than expected, while strong capital fueled share buyback optimism. Lending revenue was disappointing, RBC analysts said.
- Imperial Brands shares drop as much as 8.3%. The tobacco firm’s earnings missed expectations amid declines in volumes and its CEO’s decision to retire caught investors off-guard.
- FLSmidth shares gain as much as 13% to a two-month high after posting a “whopping” 24% beat on first-quarter adjusted Ebitda, according to Jefferies.
- Compass shares fall as much 4.8% as organic growth at the catering firm is slightly below some estimates, with some concern over North America revenue. Panmure Liberum questions the current valuation.
- TUI shares slide as much as 11%, most in three months, after the tour and travel operator signaled a negative bookings inflection for the key summer season.
- Experian shares fall as much as 1.8% after the UK credit and marketing firm reported in-line earnings and offered organic revenue guidance slightly below expectations.
- Alcon shares slide as much as 9.5%, the most since March 2020, after first-quarter results from the Swiss eyecare firm missed estimates across the board.
- Alstom shares slump as much as 17% after the French transport system company’s earnings. Morgan Stanley says the quarterly print is ahead “but the softer guidance will likely be the focus.”
- InPost shares drop as much as 8.3% after the parcel locker operator guided for softer volumes in Poland in 2Q.
- Spirax shares fall as much as 5.6% after a first-quarter update from the UK engineering services firm that Morgan Stanley says contained both positives and negatives.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, on track for a fourth-straight session of gains, as Chinese tech firms climbed ahead of earnings announcements. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 1.1%, with Tencent and Alibaba among the biggest boosts. Chipmakers TSMC and SK Hynix also drove gains, following US peers higher after news that Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices will supply semiconductors for a large Saudi Arabian data-center project. Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia led gains in the region. Japanese stocks bucked the trend, with the benchmark Topix snapping a 13-day win streak, as worries about the nation’s continued lack of a tariff deal with the US and weak earnings from the auto sector drove profit-taking. Traders are looking to China’s tech earnings as another possible catalyst for stocks after this week’s US-China tariff cuts. The results could provide clues on whether the sector’s artificial intelligence-driven rally is back on track, which may offset lingering doubts over the potential for final deals between US and its trading partners.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.5% as the greenback falls across the board after Bloomberg reported the US and South Korea discussed their currency policies in early May and agreed to continue talks, according to a person familiar with the matter. The South Korean won rises 1.7%. The Japanese yen is the best performing G-10 currency with a 1.1% gain.
In rates, the 10-year Treasury yields are higher by 1basis point at 4.48%, reversing an earlier drop. US 2- to 10-year yields are 1bp-2bp cheaper on the day led by the 5-year, with long-end little changed, steepening 5s30s by about 1bp. UK gilts lag Treasuries slightly after an auction of 10-year debt.
In commodities, WTI drops 1% to $63 a barrel. Spot gold falls $20 to around $3,230/oz. Bitcoin falls over 1% toward $103,000.
The US economic data slate is blank; scheduled Fed speakers include Jefferson (9:10am) and Daly (5:40pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +0.2%
- Nasdaq 100 0.4%
- Russell 2000 mini -0.1%
- Stoxx Europe 600 -0.4%
- DAX -0.6%
- CAC 40 -0.7%
- 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.46%
- VIX +0.1 points at 18.34
- Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.5% at 1224.7
- euro +0.7% at $1.1259
- WTI crude -0.8% at $63.18/barrel
Top Overnight News
- House Republicans may reach a SALT deduction compromise today, House Speaker Mike Johnson said. A proposal is being debated to increasing the cap to $30,000 from $10,000. BBG
- Trump’s tariff policies are projected to cut California’s tax revenue by $16 billion in the next fiscal year, Governor Gavin Newsom’s finance department said. BBG
- Qatar Airways is set to announce that it secured an agreement to purchase 150 aircraft from Boeing while President Trump is in Doha on Wednesday, a source familiar with the matter confirmed to NewsNation. The Hill
- China criticizes the US-UK trade deal, warning that Washington shouldn’t pursue agreements that isolate Beijing. FT
- Companies expected to rush inventory to the US from China ahead of the holidays to capitalize on the 90-day détente between the two countries. FT
- Japan’s PPI slowed more than expected to 0.2% in April. BBG
- Trade talks between India and the US are progressing smoothly, with the first tranche of a deal expected by fall, according to people familiar with the discussions. However, it’s unclear if India can secure an interim deal by early July, when Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are expected to kick in. BBG
- Joachim Nagel said markets were close to a meltdown after last month’s US trade announcements. The ECB’s Governing Council member said he couldn’t see how raising barriers to free trade would produce positive outcomes for the US. BBG
- The BOE’s Catherine Mann told CNBC she flipped her vote from a bumper interest-rate cut to a pause because sharp moves on markets had lowered borrowing costs and provided enough easing of financial conditions. BBG
- Fed's Goolsbee (2025 Voter) says some part of April inflation represents the lagged nature of data and the Fed is still holding its breath. It will take time for current inflation trends to show up in data. Right now is a time for the Fed to wait for more information and try get past the noise in the data. Cannot jump to conclusions about long-term trends given all the short term volatility.
Tariffs/Trade
- White House economic adviser Hassett said the administration has more than 20-25 deals on the table with deals close to being finalised and when President Trump returns, he will announce the next deal, according to a Fox interview.
- US-China trade ceasefire is to drive early Black Friday and Christmas stockpiling with ports and shipping companies expecting a surge in demand as retailers take advantage of lower tariffs on Chinese imports, according to the FT.
- China criticised a trade deal between the UK and US that could be used to squeeze Chinese products out of British supply chains, according to the FT.
- Mexico's Economy Minister said they hope to start the USMCA review as soon as possible to give consumers and investors clarity.
Top Overnight News
- White House economic adviser Hassett said the administration has more than 20-25 deals on the table with deals close to being finalised and when President Trump returns, he will announce the next deal, according to a Fox interview.
- US-China trade ceasefire is to drive early Black Friday and Christmas stockpiling with ports and shipping companies expecting a surge in demand as retailers take advantage of lower tariffs on Chinese imports, according to the FT.
- China criticised a trade deal between the UK and US that could be used to squeeze Chinese products out of British supply chains, according to the FT.
- Mexico's Economy Minister said they hope to start the USMCA review as soon as possible to give consumers and investors clarity.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed but with the region predominantly in the green following the momentum from the constructive performance on Wall St, where most major indices closed higher in the aftermath of the softer-than-expected US CPI data, although demand was contained overnight amid a lack of fresh major catalysts and as participants digested earnings releases. ASX 200 lacked firm direction as strength in energy and tech was counterbalanced by weakness in utilities and consumer stocks, while financials were rangebound despite Australia's largest bank CBA reporting an increase in profits. Nikkei 225 wiped out opening gains and briefly reverted to a sub-38,000 level with the list of worst performers in the index dominated by companies that had just reported earnings results. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gained amid strength in Chinese healthcare stocks and tech names leading the upside in Hong Kong ahead of Tencent and Alibaba earnings results scheduled for today and tomorrow, respectively, while the upside in the mainland was limited amid a lack of major fresh catalysts.
Top Asian News
- South Korea is preparing support measures for small and medium-sized firms expected to be hit by tariffs, according to Reuters citing the government.
- CATL (300750 CH/3750 HK) is reportedly to set a price of HKD 263/shr for its upcoming Hong Kong listing, via Reuters citing sources; to increase the HK listing size by 17.7mln shares.
- Foxconn (2317 TW) Q1 (TWD): net 42.12bln (exp. 37.9bln); operating 46.5bln (exp. 46.3bln), revenue 1.64tln (exp. 1.65tln); expects 2025 revenue to see significant growth Y/Y (prev. exp. to grow "strongly").
- Tencent (700 HK) Q1 (CNH) Revenue 180.02bln (exp. 175.6bln), Op. Profit 57.57bln (exp. 59.2bln), Adj. Net Income 61.33bln (exp. 59.68bln).
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) opened modestly mixed and on either side of the unchanged mark; since, the risk tone has deteriorated to display a mostly negative picture in Europe. European sectors opened mixed and with no clear theme or bias, and with the breadth of the market fairly narrow. Real Estate takes the top spot, joined closely by Telecoms and then Utilities to complete the top three. Autos sit towards the foot of the pile, driven by post-earning weakness in Daimler Truck (-1.1%). US equity futures are flat/modestly lower, attempting to hold onto the gains seen yesterday, strength which was in-part spurred by the plethora of deals announced/reported on during the Saudi event. Barclays raises its 2025 year-end price target for STOXX 600 to 540 (prev. 490, currently 545.09). Barclays European Equity Strategy downgrades Consumer Staples to Underweight; upgrades Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight (prev. Underweight). Goldman Sachs lifts its Stoxx 600 target for the next 12-months to 570 (prev. 520).
Top European News
- BoE's Mann says the UK labour market has been more resilient than expected. Worried that household inflation expectations have increased. Need to see a loss of pricing power by firms, however, goods price inflation is increasing. Trade aversion will result in lower global good prices. Firms will look for the opportunity to rebuild their margins. "Dollar is still king".
- BoE's Breeden: "A macro-prudential approach to the supervision of CCPs is essential given their central role in the financial system".
- ECB's Nagel says there is a good probability the inflation target will be maintained; current uncertainty will be the new "normal", central banks have to get used to manage it Very supportive of the new (German) fiscal debt brake, however, it is clear that Germany will need to return to fiscal rules in the future. USD is very important, but the EUR's role will become stronger as a reserve currency in the next few years.
- Hapag Lloyd (HLAG GY) CEO says they have seen an increase in orders for China-US shipments by more than 50% W/W; demand is considerably higher compared with the time before US tariffs.
FX
- DXY began the European session on a modestly weaker footing, continuing to pare back some of the US-China induced upside. As the session progressed, some hefty Dollar pressure was seen, as the risk tone deteriorated and with some traders pointing towards a technical driven move. Some focus may also be on Deputy Finance Minister Choi's meeting with Kaproth of the US Treasury on May 5th to discuss FX. DXY currently towards the lower end of a 100.28-101.02 range. Data docket ahead is thin, focus will be on commentary from Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and Fed's Daly (2027 voter) - do note that in prepared remarks from Waller, he did not comment on monetary policy.
- EUR is on a firmer footing, largely benefiting from the broader Dollar weakness, rather than any EZ-specific updates, which have been lacking in today’s session. To recap, Spanish and German Final inflation figures were unrevised. Elsewhere, ECB's Nagel said "there is a good probability the inflation target will be maintained; current uncertainty will be the new "normal", central banks have to get used to manage it" - remarks which had little impact on the pair. The Single Currency has made a fresh WTD high at 1.1264.
- JPY is the best-performing G10 currency thus far; early morning strength was thanks to the broadly softer US yield environment, and with some modest deterioration in the risk tone (leading to broader Dollar weakness) USD/JPY managed to dip back below the 147.00 mark to a fresh low at 145.76, taking out the 50 DMA at 146.18.
- GBP is modestly firmer vs the broadly weaker Dollar, but is a little weaker vs EUR. Today has seen a few appearances from BoE members; starting with arch-hawk Mann, she noted that “UK labour market has been more resilient than expected. Worried that household inflation expectations have increased”. Elsewhere, Breeden released a text publication, but that focused more on supervision matters rather than on monetary policy. There was little price action sparked by both members.
- Antipodeans are modestly firmer vs the weaker Dollar; AUD/USD currently trading at the upper-end of a 0.6464-0.65 range; NZD/USD in a 0.5931-0.5968 parameter.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1956 vs exp. 7.1813 (Prev. 7.1991)
Fixed Income
- A similar setup to Tuesday morning as USTs find themselves marginally in the green while peers across the pond are a touch in the red. USTs find themselves at the upper-end of a very thin 110-01 to 110-09 band. Fed's Waller did not comment on monetary policy in prepared remarks; next up, Jefferson and Daly.
- Bunds are in-fitting with action at this time on Tuesday, a touch softer in narrow parameters with specifics for the bloc fairly light. No move to a handful of final data points from Germany and Spain. Elsewhere, ECB's Nagel said "there is a good probability the inflation target will be maintained; current uncertainty will be the new "normal", central banks have to get used to manage it" - remarks which had little impact on the pair. Some modest upside was seen as the risk tone was hit a little in European trade and currently trades in a 129.29-59 band. Some modest upside was seen following a well received Bund auction.
- Again, echoes of the dynamic on Tuesday as Gilts find themselves the modest fixed underperformer. Specifics for the UK are a touch light, remarks from BoE’s Breeden this morning largely stayed clear of monetary policy. Before Breeden, “activist” Mann was on the wires and expressed concern that the labour market has been more resilient than forecast and that household inflation expectations have increased; overall, her commentary was hawkish and may be factoring into the bearish bias for Gilts, but nothing overly surprising from the dissenter.
- UK to sell GBP 4.25bln 4.50% 2035 Gilt: b/c 3.13x (prev. 2.85x), average yield 4.673% (prev. 4.638%) & tail 0.3bps (prev. 0.4bps).
- Germany sells EUR 1.313bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 1.25% 2048 Bund and EUR 0.818 vs exp. EUR 1bln 2.50% 2054 Bund.
Commodities
- The crude complex is failing to benefit from the weaker dollar, as it gives back a little of Tuesday’s strength with today’s focus on US President Trump in Riyadh, where commentary has weighed on benchmarks, currently down by around USD 0.40/bbl on the day. Crude edged lower this morning amid constructive language regarding the Middle East from the US President, who announced the lifting of sanctions on Syria, expressed interest in normalizing relations, and emphasized a vision for a peaceful and prosperous region. WTI and Brent are just above session lows, in respective USD 62.86-63.68 and 65.82-66.59/bbl ranges.
- OPEC MOMR will be released at 13:00 BST (08:00 EDT).
- Spot Gold, like Crude, is failing to benefit from the weaker dollar, which sees the Dollar index lower by 0.4%. While pressured, the benchmark is in a thin c. USD 30/oz band and one that is essentially a repeat of the confines from Tuesday.
- Copper is modestly firmer, and trading at session highs as base metals are broadly benefitting from Dollar weakness. 3M LME Copper currently in a USD 9,562.6-9,638.45/t range.
- US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +4.3mln (exp. -1.1mln), Distillate -3.7mln (exp. 0.1mln), Gasoline -1.4mln (exp. -0.6mln), Cushing -0.9mln.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said they have made it clear that no agreement will be reached with the US without concrete guarantees, according to Iran International. It was also reported that Iran is to hold talks with European parties on Friday in Istanbul, according to European and Iranian sources cited by Reuters.
- Israel's military said it identified the launch of a missile towards Israeli territory from Yemen which was intercepted.
- Jordanian army said a rocket of unknown origin landed in a desert area in the Ma'an, according to a source via X.
- US President Trump is meeting Syrian President al-Sharaa, via AP.
- US President Trump says the US wants to do a deal with Iran. Reiterates that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Lifting sanctions on Syria. Exploring normalising relations with them. Wants a peaceful and prosperous Middle East. Special relationship with Saudi Arabia.
- Syria's President told US President Trump that they are inviting US firms to invest in Syria's oil and gas sector.
Geopolitics: Other
- Senior Russian Lawmaker says the makeup of the Russian delegation to Istanbul for the Ukraine talks will be known on Wednesday evening, via Telegram
- China's Defence Minister met with the UN Secretary General on Tuesday and said that China will put forward new peacekeeping commitments, while China will support the reform and transformation of UN peacekeeping. Furthermore, the Minister said China is always a staunch supporter and constructive force for UN peacekeeping operations, according to Xinhua.
US Event Calendar
- 7:00 am: May 9 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 11%
Central Banks (All Times ET):
- 5:00 am: Fed’s Goolsbee Appears on NPR
- 5:15 am: Fed’s Waller Speaks on Central Bank Research
- 9:10 am: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 5:40 pm: Fed’s Daly Speaks in Fireside Chat
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
It's been another 24 hours where the Trump administration continues to hog the headlines. With the President in the Middle East, various stories on AI supported a huge tech-led rally, which helped the S&P 500 (+0.72%) move back into positive territory for the year. That got a further boost thanks to a softer-than-expected CPI print (the third in a row), and it now means the index is now up +18.1% since the low on April 8. Indeed, the last time the index surged that fast in just over a month was back in April 2020, when markets were roaring back from the initial Covid slump. In the meantime, several other post-Liberation Day moves unwound further, with the VIX closing at 18.22pts, whilst US HY spreads (-6bps) fell to 299bps.
The Nasdaq (+1.61%) and the Mag-7 (+2.24%) led the gains yesterday, elevated by Nvidia’s +5.63% rise on the news they’d help build Saudi Arabia’s AI infrastructure, as part of an Economic Partnership that President Trump struck with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman yesterday. The White House framed the deal as a $600bn investment commitment from Saudi Arabia, while Trump and MBS touted a pledge of $1trn in commercial deals. The deal includes a $142bn defense agreement between the US and Saudi as well as tech firms like Google, Oracle and AMD pledging to invest $80bn in tech across both countries. So it was another win for tech stocks which helped push the S&P 500 +0.72% higher.
Trump’s visit is the first of a four-day trip to the Middle East, as the President seeks to form a series of financial deals with Qatar and the UAE. He's clearly in a mood to do deals so watch out for more on his trip. In fact, Bloomberg reported yesterday that the administration is weighing a deal that would allow the UAE to import 500k of Nvidia’s advanced chips annually, far exceeding limits for AI chip exports set under Biden. Meanwhile on trade, NEC Director Kevin Hassett suggested that Trump will announce the next trade deal upon his return to the US, and there were more than 20-25 deals on the table.
The ongoing rally was also helped by the US April CPI report, which came out weaker than predicted, with monthly headline and core CPI each up +0.2% (vs. +0.3% expected for both). From a market point of view, the main relief was also that tariffs weren’t showing up in a major way in consumer prices, even though April included the 10% universal baseline tariffs, and much higher tariffs on China. Admittedly, there were some categories likely showing tariff-related jumps, like an +8.8% monthly rise for audio equipment, but the broad impact was muted. And in turn, the year-on-year CPI rate fell to just +2.3%, which is the weakest since February 2021. Our US economists think the April data is still too early for the Liberation Day tariffs to show up in the aggregate numbers, and they don’t expect the effects to show up in consumer prices until June.
When it comes to the Fed, markets continued to dial back their expectations for cuts this year, but that was driven by the broader risk-on tone and lower recession fears, rather than the soft inflation print. So by the close, futures were only expecting 53bps of cuts by the December meeting, which was -3.2bps lower on the day, and the fewer cuts priced for this year since February. President Trump continued to call for lower rates, saying in a post that “THE FED must lower the RATE, like Europe and China have done.” Looking forward, our US economists will be watching tomorrow’s PPI data closely for categories that feed through into core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. They now see April core PCE tracking at +0.23% m/m, which would be consistent with the year-over-year rate remaining at 2.6%. See their full CPI reaction note here.
As investors dialled back their pricing of Fed cuts, that in turn helped to bring down front-end Treasury yields, with the 2yr yield falling -1.0bps on the day to 4.00%. By the close, the 10yr yield was also down -0.6bps to 4.47%, but the 30yr yield moved up +0.1bps to its highest closing level since January, at 4.91%. That’s still beneath the intraday peak above 5% just before the 90-day tariff extension, but still up from 4.68% at the end of April.
Back in Europe, markets posted moderate gains, with the STOXX 600 (+0.12%), DAX (+0.31%) and CAC (+0.30%) all moving higher. For the DAX it marked a new all-time high, with the index now up almost +19% YTD, so still well ahead of the S&P 500 which has only just turned positive for 2025 again. The gains came as Germany’s ZEW survey for May was stronger than expected, with the expectations component up to +25.2 (vs +11.3 expected) reaffirming a more bullish sentiment for the country’s economy. Against that backdrop, 10yr bund yields inched up +3.1bps to 2.68%, and sovereign spreads continued to tighten amidst the risk-on mood. For instance, the 10yr Italian spread over bunds tightened to just 102bps, the lowest since 2021.
Meanwhile in the UK, there were signs of an ongoing loosening in the labour market, with the unemployment rate ticking up a tenth to 4.5%, whilst wage growth in March softened to +5.5% year-on-year, the weakest since October. The news helped 2yr gilts to outperform yesterday, falling -2.0bps to 3.97%, unlike 2yr German yields which moved up +1.2bps.
In the commodity space, oil prices moved higher as Trump threatened to ramp up sanctions against Iranian oil if a nuclear deal weren’t reached, and Brent crude rose +2.57% to $66.63/bbl. The likes of gold (+0.43%) and copper (+2.25%) also advanced, in part helped a new decline in the dollar index (-0.77%), which retreated after posting its best day since Trump’s election win on Monday.Overnight, markets have generally held on to their gains, with futures on the S&P 500 up +0.08%. Similarly in Asia, most of the major equity indices have moved higher as well, with a strong gain for the Hang Seng (+1.43%) and the KOSPI (+1.18%), alongside advances for the CSI 300 (+0.27%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.19%). The one exception to that has been Japanese equities however, with the Nikkei down -0.42%, whilst the TOPIX (-0.64%) has lost ground after advancing for 13 consecutive sessions. Otherwise this morning, data showed Japan’s PPI inflation coming in at +4.0% in April as expected, whilst Australia’s Q1 wage index was a bit stronger than anticipated, up +0.9% quarter-on-quarter (vs. +0.8% expected), and yields on 10yr Australian government bonds are up +4.1bps this morning.
To the day ahead now, data releases include Canada March building permits. For Central Bank speakers, expect Fed’s Waller, Jefferson and Daly speak, ECB’s Nagel and Holzmann speak, and BOE’s Breeden speak. Earning releases include Tencent, Cisco, Sony, and Coreweave.
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Site: southern orders
The sinner Pope Leo greeted is a great worldwide know tennis Sinner, Jannik Sinner.
In his audience with him, Pope Leo XIV wears for the first time the pectoral cross of Pope Leo XIII, through whom we should read our new pope!
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Site: Zero HedgeComing "Back To Life": Burberry On Track For Best Weekly Performance Since Early 2009Tyler Durden Wed, 05/14/2025 - 08:05
Burberry's earnings report, released Wednesday, indicates modest but encouraging progress in its strategic turnaround. One Wall Street analyst remarked that the iconic British trench-coat maker is "showing signs of life," with early traction visible in brand repositioning efforts. While demand remains soft in key markets like China and the U.S., operational improvements suggest the brand may be approaching an inflection point that deserves investors' attention.
Despite a year-over-year decline in revenue and profitability, Burberry delivered several above-consensus results, including sales that fell less than expected in the fourth quarter, while its full-year operating profit and margin beat Bloomberg Consensus estimates. Mainland China and the U.S. remain weak spots for demand.
The results suggest the worst may be behind, and with improved execution, Burberry could be at the start of a recovery phase...
Fourth-Quarter Results:
Retail comparable sales fell 6%, better than expectations of -7.78% (Bloomberg Consensus)
- Asia Pacific: -9% vs. -10.5% est.
- Mainland China: -8% vs. -9.5% est.
- EMEIA (Europe, Middle East, India, Africa): -4% vs. -5.53% est.
- Americas: -4% vs. -2.76% est. (slightly worse than expected)
Full-Year Results:
Adjusted pretax loss of £37M vs. £44.8M loss expected (better than forecast).
Retail comparable sales -12%, estimate -13.1%
Revenue matched expectations at £2.46B, but fell 17% y/y.
- Retail sales: -14% y/y; slightly ahead of consensus.
- Wholesale: -37% y/y; in line with estimates.
- Licensing: +6.5% y/y; beat expectations.
Adjusted operating profit: £26M vs. £4.65M est. (significant beat, though down 94% y/y).
Adjusted operating margin: 1% vs. 0.25% est. (down from 14.1% y/y).
Adjusted EPS: loss of 14.8p vs. loss of 10.4p est.
No dividend declared (0p, as expected).
CEO Joshua Schulman, who joined the company last July, recently unveiled 'Burberry Forward' to revive the faltering brand and boost popularity for its outerwear products and expensive trench coats.
Schulman expanded his turnaround strategy today with a plan to deliver $80 million in cost savings over the next two years, driven partly by a workforce reduction of 1,700 jobs—approximately 18% of total headcount. The move comes amid a broader global slowdown in luxury demand as the company looks to streamline operations and protect margins.
In markets, Burberry shares in London jumped 15% during the cash session. For the week, up nearly 24% - and if gains hold through Friday, this could be the company's best weekly stock performance since the first week of April 2009.
Shares are trading at 2010 lows...
Analyst commentary on the earnings report was mostly positive but cautious.
Goldman analyst Louise Singlehurst and Adrien Duverger provided clients earlier with their first take on the report:
GS View: We think performance in 2H25, and the focus on strong cost control, demonstrates the pace of execution at Burberry. Despite the tough environment, we note that inventory was -7% cFX (ahead of guidance of broadly at least flat) which we also expect reflects that Q4 trading was ahead of company expectations. The key is the additional cost savings target: we see as this as providing increased confidence for investors on the recovery in EBIT, whilst enabling Burberry to invest in the brand's re-acceleration. We note that post FY25 adjusted EBIT of £26m, Visible Alpha Consensus Data adj EBIT for FY26 is at £138m (GSE £125m). We remain Neutral.
Additional commentary from other Wall Street desks (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Deutsche Bank (buy)
- Burberry is showing further progress on its brand turnaround, says analyst Adam Cochrane; an improvement in sales will be the key factor for investors over the next 12 months
- Outerwear and scarves were better than average, while leather goods were weaker
Jefferies (underperform)
- Burberry's results suggest the brand's turnaround case is in slow-burn mode, writes analyst James Grzinic, given fourth- quarter sales momentum has not built on the third-quarter sequential improvement
- Reference to a toughening backdrop and a back-end loading to this year's delivery implies a mixed start to the new year on the sales front
Citi (buy)
- Burberry is coming "back to life," writes analyst Thomas Chauvet, with the company's robust strategic plan set to unlock value in the medium term
- Patience is needed, but the potential rewards now outweigh the risks
RBC Capital Markets (outperform)
- Burberry's results are "an encouraging first step," says analyst Piral Dadhania, with management pursuing the right strategy to reset the business
- This should, in time, support a return to positive revenue and profit growth
Bernstein (outperform)
- Burberry's earnings look like a small beat on low expectations, writes analyst Luca Solca, which the market will take as an "encouraging sign"
- However, the new Burberry is yet to appear, given the new CEO arrived just before the SS25 fashion show
. . .
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Site: Zero HedgeNvidia, AMD Secure Saudi AI Data Center Deals During Trump's Gulf States TourTyler Durden Wed, 05/14/2025 - 07:45
Several U.S. tech companies announced big AI deals in the Middle East after the White House announced the kingdom's commitment to invest $600 billion in the U.S.
Among the largest deals, Nvidia will supply 18,000 of its cutting-edge Blackwell chips to Humain, an AI startup just launched by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund.
Tuesday's announcement comes as part of the White House's Gulf tour, which includes President Trump and top CEOs.
"I am so delighted to be here to help celebrate the grand opening, the beginning of Humain," CEO Jensen Huang told the audience at the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum in Riyadh on Tuesday, adding, "It is an incredible vision, indeed, that Saudi Arabia should build the AI infrastructure of your nation so that you could participate and help shape the future of this incredibly transformative technology."
A New Chapter of Global Technological Leadership — Born in Riyadh!
— Dr Khalid AlShaigi د خالد الشايقي MD MTEI MDI MHI (@K_Alshaigi) May 13, 2025
Today at the #SaudiUSForum2025, history was made.
Tareq Amin, CEO of HUMAIN and Jensen Huang, visionary CEO of NVIDIA, announced a groundbreaking partnership that is setting a new global benchmark: building AI… pic.twitter.com/Vm6ncjYCrAHuang said that AI data centers are power-hungry, and the energy-rich country can use Nvidia's technology to unlock new capabilities.
NEWS: NVIDIA and HUMAIN, an AI subsidiary of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, announced plans to build AI factories that will transform the country into a global AI leader.
— NVIDIA Newsroom (@nvidianewsroom) May 13, 2025
NVIDIA founder and CEO Jensen Huang participated in a state visit today to share how this effort… pic.twitter.com/4Au6NxvTQ6Humain plans to develop Arabic versions of large language models. CEO Tareq Amin said the startup would build 1.9 gigawatts of data centers by the decade's end. He anticipates Nvidia's technology will power AI factories across the Middle East.
Here are the AI deals that were announced:
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Nvidia will supply hundreds of thousands of AI chips to Saudi Arabia, starting with 18,000 Blackwell GPUs for Humain, a newly launched AI firm backed by Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund.
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AMD announced a $10 billion collaboration with Humain to deploy 500 megawatts of AI infrastructure, including CPUs, GPUs, and orchestration software.
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Qualcomm signed an MoU with Humain to develop server CPUs for future data centers.
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Saudi firm DataVolt will invest $20 billion in U.S. AI data centers and energy infrastructure.
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Google, Oracle, Salesforce, AMD, Uber, and DataVolt will invest $80 billion into transformative technologies across both countries.
Trump's Gulf tour aims to ramp up trillions of investments between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.
Outside of chips, the White House announced a $142 billion defense deal with the kingdom to provide "state-of-the-art warfighting equipment and services from over a dozen U.S. defense firms." This is nearly double Saudi Arabia's 2025 defense budget.
Tuesday's announcement highlights how Nvidia's chips have become a bargaining tool for the Trump administration.
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Site: Zero HedgeBlackRock Flags Quantum Computing As Risk For Bitcoin ETFsTyler Durden Wed, 05/14/2025 - 07:20
Authored by Alex O'Donnell via CoinTelgraph.com,
Emerging technologies, including quantum computing, could potentially render the cryptography securing Bitcoin and other blockchain networks ineffective, asset manager BlackRock said in a regulatory filing.
On May 9, BlackRock updated the registration statement for its iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT). The revised version addressed potential risks to the integrity of the Bitcoin network posed by quantum computing, the filing shows.
“[I]f quantum computing technology is able to advance […] it could potentially undermine the viability of many of the cryptographic algorithms used across the world’s information technology infrastructure, including the cryptographic algorithms used for digital assets like bitcoin,” BlackRock said.
It is the first time the asset manager has explicitly flagged this risk in its IBIT disclosures. The IBIT ETF is the largest spot Bitcoin ETF, with approximately $64 billion in net assets, according to its website.
Quantum computing is an emergent field that seeks to use the principles of quantum mechanics to greatly enhance computers’ processing capabilities.
Source: James Seyffart/Bloomberg Intelligence
Record-breaking inflows
James Seyffart, an analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, cautioned that risk disclosures such as IBIT’s are required to highlight every possible risk to an asset, even those that are extremely unlikely.
“They are going to highlight any potential thing that can go wrong with any product they list or underlying asset that’s being invested in,” Seyffart said in a May 9 X post. “It's completely standard. And honestly [it] makes complete sense.”
Since launching in January, Bitcoin ETFs have collectively attracted more than $41 billion in net inflows, according to data from Farside Investors.
Bitcoin ETF inflows reached all-time highs on May 8. Source: Eric Balchunas/Bloomberg Intelligence
On May 8, Bitcoin ETF net inflows surpassed all-time highs of around $40 billion, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
“Lifetime net flows is #1 most imp metric to watch IMO, very hard to grow, pure truth, no bs,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas said in a May 9 X post.
“Impressive, they were able to make it to a new high water mark so soon after the world was supposed to end.”
In February, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino predicted that quantum computing would eventually enable hackers to break into inactive Bitcoin wallets and recover the dormant coins.
“Any Bitcoin in lost wallets, including Satoshi (if not alive), will be hacked and put back in circulation,” Ardoino said in a Feb. 8 X post.
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Site: Zero HedgeHow Do US Universities Make Their Money?Tyler Durden Wed, 05/14/2025 - 06:55
The cost of funding American universities is huge - covering everything from faculty salaries and special departments to laboratories.
Not only that, government funding for public institutions has fallen substantially over the past 50 years, making universities rely more heavily on tuition and other sources of revenue. The Trump administration’s freezing of billions in grants and contracts is adding further strain to elite academic institutions.
This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's shows how American public universities are funded, based on data from the National Center for Education Statistics.
The Top Sources of Revenue for American Universities
Below, we break down the $392 billion in revenues generated across 1,592 public American institutions as of 2023:
State government funding, typically in the form of research grants, contracts, and appropriations, makes up the largest share at 28%.
Overall, New Hampshire ranks last in spending on higher public education spending per student, followed by Vermont. Going further, 25 states spend less than levels seen in 2008, with Nevada, Arizona, and Louisiana spending 30% less in 2023.
In absolute terms, California and Texas spend the most on academic funding, at $22.3 billion and $11.5 billion, respectively in fiscal 2025.
Meanwhile, tuition and fees generated 21% of revenues totaling $80.8 billion. Despite tuition costs more than tripling since 1990, it has struggled to make up the funding losses from state cutbacks. At the same time, university spending has swelled for administrators, construction, and faculty salaries as demand for higher education has increased.
Looking at private sources of revenue, these brought in $51.2 billion, or 13% of the total. Private sources include endowment additions, investment income, and private grants. While universities have massive endowment funds, funding is often tied to specific purposes. For instance, certain donors will designate funds to scholarships or a specific research center over a series of years.
To learn more about this topic from a global perspective, check out this graphic on the top universities outside of America.
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Site: Zero HedgeFlorida Troopers Now Federally Credentialed To Arrest Illegal Immigrants On Their OwnTyler Durden Wed, 05/14/2025 - 06:30
Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Florida officials announced that 1,800 state Highway Patrol troopers are the first in the nation to receive federal credentials under an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agreement allowing them to arrest illegal immigrants on their own.
An Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent and a local police officer arrest an illegal immigrant in Florida in April 2025. ICE
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said at a press conference on May 12 that the state’s ongoing partnership with ICE included what is known as 287(g) agreements, where state and local law enforcement partner with ICE to help arrest and deport illegal immigrants.
The Florida Highway Patrol entered into a 287(g) task force model that gives them the power to arrest foreign nationals who are in the country illegally and place detainers on them during routine policing, such as traffic stops.
In essence, it allows local law enforcement to operate as an extension of ICE under federal supervision.
DeSantis encouraged other states to support President Donald Trump’s efforts to deport illegal immigrants, noting the success of Operation Tidal Wave. The recent joint federal-state operation arrested more than 1,100 illegal immigrants.
Some of those arrested included members of gangs such as MS-13 and Tren de Aragua, both designated as terrorist organizations by the Trump administration.
Additionally, DeSantis said Florida also swore in 100 troopers as special deputy U.S. marshals, which will allow them to execute federal search warrants and remove dangerous illegal immigrants.
Dave Kerner, director of the Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles, said during the press conference that the Florida troopers are the first fully credentialed law enforcement to be fully operational under the 287(g) task force model.
“What that means is, if you see a state trooper, he or she has federal authorities to detain, investigate, apprehend, and deport,” Kerner said. “We have troopers in all 67 counties of this great state that have that authority.”
Kerner told The Epoch Times that troopers serving as U.S. marshals will be able to go into homes to serve warrants, which isn’t part of the 287(g) agreements.
He said that the programs offer flexibility to state and local jurisdictions, allowing them to determine their level of involvement once they sign up for the agreements.
“It is, by and large, a voluntary effort,” he said. “You can decide how much you want to participate.”
Illegal immigrants from Venezuela turn themselves in to Texas state troopers after crossing the border from Mexico into Del Rio, Texas, on May 18, 2021. John Moore/Getty Images
DeSantis added that there’s a plan on the table that, if approved by the federal government, would allow military judge advocates to act as immigration judges and provide makeshift detention space and transportation for illegal immigrants.
The governor noted that the state’s experience with disaster response, such as during hurricanes, helped the state come up with the plan. He said there are 70,000 to 80,000 illegal immigrants in the state, with final deportation orders issued by a judge.
Getting rid of criminal illegal immigrants helps cut down on crime and save lives, DeSantis said.
“You’re really making a difference in your community,” he said.
Some 11 million illegal immigrants were apprehended at U.S. borders over the past four years, according to Customs and Border Protection data.
Trump campaigned on border security and illegal immigrant deportations. Upon returning to the White House, he has moved to keep that promise through a whole-of-government approach that has included designating several Mexican cartels and other transnational criminal groups as terrorist organizations. As a result, some members of the MS-13 and Tren de Aragua gangs have been deported to El Salvador’s Terrorism Confinement Center, known as CECOT.
As of May 8, ICE statistics show there are 531 agreements with state and local agencies throughout the country. Another 105 applications are pending.
Although dozens of states have agreements under the 287(g) program, Florida is the first to have its law enforcement officers credentialed.
U.S. military personnel escort alleged members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua and the MS-13 gang recently deported by the U.S. government to be imprisoned in the Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT) prison as part of an agreement with the Salvadoran government, in San Luis Talpa, El Salvador, on March 30, 2025. Office of the President's Press Secretary/Reuters
Law enforcement nationwide has been encouraged to sign up for 287(g) agreements by the Trump administration because there are not enough federal officers to find and process millions of illegal immigrants.
Besides the task force model, the federal government created the jail enforcement model and the warrant service officer model.
The jail enforcement model allows local officers to identify and process removable noncitizens already booked into local jails. The warrant service officer model allows officers to serve and execute administrative warrants on illegal immigrants already in custody.
Florida had 266 agreements that included all 67 sheriff’s offices in the state, according to the Florida Sheriffs Association. Texas had the second-highest number of agreements at 77.
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Site: Zero HedgeThe Income Needed To Buy A Home In Every US StateTyler Durden Wed, 05/14/2025 - 05:45
As home prices continue to climb and mortgage rates remain elevated, buying a home in the U.S. has become increasingly out of reach for the average household.
In 2025, buyers now need six-figure salaries to afford a median-priced home in all but 15 states.
This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, using data from Realtor.com, maps the annual income required to purchase a typical three-bedroom home in every state, based on a 10% down payment, a 6.65% interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage, and a 30% income-to-housing cost threshold (which includes taxes and insurance).
The Growing Gap Between Income and Home Prices
A recent study found that nearly 50% of U.S. households cannot afford a home priced at $250,000. This is particularly concerning when the median price of a new single-family home nationwide has reached $495,750, according to the National Association of Home Builders.
In many states, the income needed to comfortably afford a median-priced home far exceeds what a typical family earns.
Where Buying a Home Requires the Highest Salaries
Here are the top five most expensive states for homebuyers in 2025:
Hawaii tops the list, where buying a median three-bedroom home requires an annual income of $229,000—the highest in the country. Despite its small population, Montana has climbed into the top five least affordable states, driven by a widening gap between soaring home prices and relatively modest local incomes.
In contrast, in West Virginia a buyer would need a salary of just $71,000 to afford a median-priced home—well below the state’s median household income of $90,000. Other states with lower thresholds include Mississippi, Ohio, and Indiana.
What’s the cost of a median price in every U.S. state? Find out in this map on Voronoi.
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Site: southern orders
This pope is so clear and precise! No scratching of one’s head here!I have often spoken of Pope Benedict’s most wonderful Christmas speech to the Curia about the proper interpretation of Vatican II in continuity, not in a breach, with the Church prior to Vatican II.
Pope Leo has told us that he agrees with Pope Benedict’s elocution to the Roman Curia, not by words but by a major, major symbolic gesture, taking the name of Leo and specifically linking his papacy to one of the strongest pre-Vatican II popes of the late 1800’s to 1903, Pope Leo XIII!
If you had any doubt about this, read and watch Pope Leo’s very first Wednesday audience and the speech he gave to the bishops and laity of the Eastern Churches.
And, WOW!, what Pope Leo said about their Liturgy and how the Latin Rite’s new Mass has blown it. That implies the old Latin Rite was far more in continuity with the Eastern Churches’ Liturgy as it concerns Mystery and Prayer and Christ being the center rather than the personality of the priest!
Pope Leo is so clear in his discourses and teachings compared to Francis. And please recall how many times Pope Francis tossed his written text in order to give off-the-cuff gibberish! Pope Leo won’t do this in another break with his predecessor!
Pope Leo also speaks of the Eastern Church’s proper use of Synodality. This has implications too for how Pope Leo will refine the hot mess of synodality over the last 13 years in the Latin Rite!
Please note my comments in RED embedded in the Pope’s text:
ADDRESS OF THE HOLY FATHER LEO XIV
TO PARTICIPANTS IN THE JUBILEE OF ORIENTAL CHURCHESAudience Hall
Wednesday, 14 May 2025_________________________________
In the name of the Father, and of the Son, and of the Holy Spirit. Peace be with you.
Your Beatitudes, Your Eminence, Your Excellencies,
Dear priests, consecrated men and women,
Dear brothers and sisters,Christ is risen. He is truly risen! I greet you in these words that Eastern Christians in many lands never tire of repeating during the Easter season, as they profess the very heart of our faith and hope. It is very moving for me to see you here during the Jubilee of Hope, a hope unshakably grounded in the resurrection of Jesus Christ. Welcome to Rome! I am happy to be with you and to devote one of the first audiences of my pontificate to the Eastern faithful.
You are precious in God’s eyes. Looking at you, I think of the diversity of your origins, your glorious history and the bitter sufferings that many of your communities have endured or continue to endure. I would like to reaffirm the conviction of Pope Francis that the Eastern Churches are to be “cherished and esteemed for the unique spiritual and sapiential traditions that they preserve, and for all that they have to say to us about the Christian life, synodality, and the liturgy. We think of early Fathers, the Councils, and monasticism… inestimable treasures for the Church (Address to Participants in the Meeting of Aid Agencies for the Oriental Churches [ROACO], 27 June 2024).
I would also like to mention Pope Leo XIII, the first Pope to devote a specific document to the dignity of your Churches, inspired above all by the fact that, in his words, “the work of human redemption began in the East” (cf. Apostolic Letter Orientalium Dignitas, 30 November 1894). Truly, you have “a unique and privileged role as the original setting where the Church was born” (SAINT JOHN PAUL II, Orientale Lumen, 5). It is significant that several of your liturgies – which you are now solemnly celebrating in Rome in accordance with your various traditions – continue to use the language of the Lord Jesus. Indeed, Pope Leo XIII made a heartfelt appeal that the “legitimate variety of Eastern liturgy and discipline... may redound to the great honor and benefit of the Church” (Orientalium Dignitas). His desire remains ever timely. In our own day too, many of our Eastern brothers and sisters, including some of you, have been forced to flee their homelands because of war and persecution, instability and poverty, and risk losing not only their native lands, but also, when they reach the West, their religious identity. As a result, with the passing of generations, the priceless heritage of the Eastern Churches is being lost. (This has happened to the Latin Rites by way of a liturgy committee of Pope Paul VI and modern liturgists after it who have completely dismantled the liturgical patrimony of the Latin Rites!)
Over a century ago, Leo XIII pointed out that “preserving the Eastern rites is more important than is generally realized”. He went so far as to decree that “any Latin-Rite missionary, whether a member of the secular or regular clergy, who by advice or support draws any Eastern-Rite Catholic to the Latin Rite” ought to be “dismissed and removed from his office” (ibid). (My friends this has implications for those who are being forced today to abandon the patrimony of the Liturgical pre-Vatican II Church by a bishop of Rome as well as other bishops who force them to be accompanied to the modern rites of the Church!) We willingly reiterate this appeal to preserve and promote the Christian East, especially in the diaspora. In addition to establishing Eastern circumscriptions wherever possible and opportune, there is a need to promote greater awareness among Latin Christians. In this regard, I ask the Dicastery for the Eastern Churches – which I thank for its work – to help me to define principles, norms, and guidelines whereby Latin Bishops can concretely support Eastern Catholics in the diaspora in their efforts to preserve their living traditions and thus, by their distinctive witness, to enrich the communities in which they live. (This is a bombshell, because Pope Leo could easily ask the Dicastery for Divine Worship to reexamine TC and make it more like SP and thus help Pope Leo support those who desire the older liturgies with bishops supporting this desire!)
The Church needs you. The contribution that the Christian East can offer us today is immense! We have great need to recover the sense of mystery that remains alive in your liturgies, liturgies that engage the human person in his or her entirety, that sing of the beauty of salvation and evoke a sense of wonder at how God’s majesty embraces our human frailty! It is likewise important to rediscover, especially in the Christian West, a sense of the primacy of God, the importance of mystagogy and the values so typical of Eastern spirituality: constant intercession, penance, fasting, and weeping for one’s own sins and for those of all humanity (penthos)! It is vital, then, that you preserve your traditions without attenuating them, for the sake perhaps of practicality or convenience,(INTELLIGIBILITY or SIMPLICITY?) lest they be corrupted (LIKE THE MODERN LATIN RITE?)by the mentality of consumerism and utilitarianism. (This is bombshell stuff folks, bombshell. It has implications for how Pope Leo will move the liturgies of the Church in the Eastern direction, even ad orientem, by recovering what was abandoned in our similar Latin Rite liturgies that are rooted in Eastern principles! I am thrilled that Pope Leo mentions the East’s emphasis on PENANCE, FASTING AND WEEPING FOR ONE’S OWN SINS AND FOR THOSE OF ALL HUMANITY! Look at the pre-Vatican II Mass and its constant reminder of our sinfulness, erased in the new rites, and our practice of fasting prior to 1966!)
Your traditions of spirituality, ancient yet ever new, are medicinal. In them, the drama of human misery is combined with wonder at God’s mercy, so that our sinfulness does not lead to despair, but opens us to accepting the gracious gift of becoming creatures who are healed, divinized and raised to the heights of heaven. For this, we ought to give endless praise and thanks to the Lord. Together, we can pray with Saint Ephrem the Syrian and say to the Lord Jesus: “Glory to you, who laid your cross as a bridge over death… Glory to you who clothed yourself in the body of mortal man, and made it the source of life for all mortals” (Homily on our Lord, 9). We must ask, then, for the grace to see the certainty of Easter in every trial of life and not to lose heart, remembering, as another great Eastern Father wrote, that “the greatest sin is not to believe in the power of the Resurrection” (SAINT ISAAC OF NINEVEH, Sermones ascetici, I, 5).
Who, better than you, can sing a song of hope even amid the abyss of violence? Who, better than you, who have experienced the horrors of war so closely that Pope Francis referred to you as “martyr Churches” (Address to ROACO, ibid.)? From the Holy Land to Ukraine, from Lebanon to Syria, from the Middle East to Tigray and the Caucasus, how much violence do we see! Rising up from this horror, from the slaughter of so many young people, which ought to provoke outrage because lives are being sacrificed in the name of military conquest, there resounds an appeal: the appeal not so much of the Pope, but of Christ himself, who repeats: “Peace be with you!” (Jn 20:19, 21, 26). And he adds: “Peace I leave you; my peace I give to you. I do not give it to you as the world gives it” (Jn 14:27). Christ’s peace is not the sepulchral silence that reigns after conflict; it is not the fruit of oppression, but rather a gift that is meant for all, a gift that brings new life. Let us pray for this peace, which is reconciliation, forgiveness, and the courage to turn the page and start anew.
For my part, I will make every effort so that this peace may prevail. The Holy See is always ready to help bring enemies together, face to face, to talk to one another, so that peoples everywhere may once more find hope and recover the dignity they deserve, the dignity of peace. The peoples of our world desire peace, and to their leaders I appeal with all my heart: Let us meet, let us talk, let us negotiate! War is never inevitable. Weapons can and must be silenced, for they do not resolve problems but only increase them. Those who make history are the peacemakers, not those who sow seeds of suffering. Our neighbours are not first our enemies, but our fellow human beings; not criminals to be hated, but other men and women with whom we can speak. Let us reject the Manichean notions so typical of that mindset of violence that divides the world into those who are good and those who are evil.
The Church will never tire of repeating: let weapons be silenced. I would like to thank God for all those who, in silence, prayer and self-sacrifice, are sowing seeds of peace. I thank God for those Christians – Eastern and Latin alike – who, above all in the Middle East, persevere and remain in their homelands, resisting the temptation to abandon them. Christians must be given the opportunity, and not just in words, to remain in their native lands with all the rights needed for a secure existence. Please, let us strive for this!
Thank you, dear brothers and sisters of the East, the lands where Jesus, the Sun of Justice, dawned, for being “lights in our world” (cf. Mt 5:14). Continue to be outstanding for your faith, hope, and charity, and nothing else. May your Churches be exemplary, and may your Pastors promote communion with integrity, especially in the Synods of Bishops, that they may be places of fraternity and authentic co-responsibility. Ensure transparency in the administration of goods and be signs of humble and complete dedication to the holy people of God, without regard for honors, worldly power or appearance. Saint Symeon the New Theologian used an eloquent image in this regard: “Just as one who throws dust on the flame of a burning furnace extinguishes it, so the cares of this life and every kind of attachment to petty and worthless things destroy the warmth of the heart that was initially kindled” (Practical and Theological Chapters, 63). Today more than ever, the splendor of the Christian East demands freedom from all worldly attachments and from every tendency contrary to communion, in order to remain faithful in obedience and in evangelical witness.
I thank you for this, and in cordially giving you my blessing, I ask you to pray for the Church and to raise your powerful prayers of intercession for my ministry. Thank you!
FOLKS THIS IS A BOMBSHELL SPEECH WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR HOW POPE LEO WILL REFINE OUR LATIN RITE LITURGIES AND KEEP IN MIND THE LATIN RITE HAS SEVERAL RITES EMBEDDED IN IT OBLITERATED BY REFORMS AND DESTRUCTION AFTER VATICAN II NEVER INTENDED BY VATICAN II!
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Site: Zero HedgeSupreme Court Chief Justice: Critique Our Rulings, Not Our JusticesTyler Durden Tue, 05/13/2025 - 23:25
Authored by Jack Philips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The U.S. Supreme Court’s chief justice on Monday told an event that criticism of the court should be relegated to its decisions and not the nine justices themselves.
Chief Justice John Roberts attends the State of the Union address in the House Chamber of the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Feb. 7, 2023. Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/Getty Images
While speaking at Washington’s Georgetown University, Chief Justice John Roberts said that the Supreme Court “has obviously made mistakes throughout its history, and those should be criticized, so long as it is in terms of the decision.”
Roberts said that criticism of the highest court should not be based on “ad hominem” arguments or attacks “against the justices” themselves, referring to the logical fallacy where an argument is dismissed based on the character or background of the individual making that claim.
“I just think that doesn’t do any good. The harshest critics are usually colleagues, if it’s the sort of thing where there are dissents. So it’s something we’re used to,” he continued. “And again, it’s a good thing. We’re not immune from any criticism. And there are many, many instances in our history where it’s been effective over time in leading to a better result.”
The comment from Roberts marks the third time in nearly as many months in response to criticism about the Supreme Court.
In a rare written statement in March, Roberts appeared to respond to President Donald Trump’s public suggestion to impeach a federal judge who had blocked his administration’s deportations of accused Venezuelan gang members under the Alien Enemies Act.
“For more than two centuries, it has been established that impeachment is not an appropriate response to disagreement concerning a judicial decision,” Roberts said in a statement provided to The Epoch Times at the time. “The normal appellate review process exists for that purpose.”
Following U.S. District Judge James Boasberg’s initial ruling against the administration’s use of the 1798 law to deport accused gang members, Trump wrote that the judge wasn’t elected as president.
A senior adviser to Trump, tech billionaire Elon Musk, also commented on the judge’s stymying the administration’s agenda. In a post on Feb. 25, Musk wrote that the only way to allow the agenda to move forward is to “impeach judges,” responding to an article that said El Salvador’s president did the same starting in 2021.
Trump hasn’t been critical of the Supreme Court and has indicated that he will follow orders from any court. Since the start of his administration, numerous lawsuits have been filed against his administration, particularly in relation to his immigration enforcement, spending cuts, and efforts to downsize and reshape the federal government.
And last week, Roberts said during an event in Buffalo, New York, that the judiciary needs to maintain its independence in order to check executive or congressional power.
The judicial branch’s independence is “the only real political-science innovation in our Constitution,” Roberts said. Elaborating, he said that “in our Constitution … the judiciary is a co-equal branch of government, separate from the others, with the authority to interpret the Constitution as law and strike down … acts of Congress or acts of the president.”
“And that innovation doesn’t work if … the judiciary is not independent. Its job is to … check the excesses of Congress or of the executive, and that does require a degree of independence,” he said.
In his recent remarks and written statement, Roberts did not mention Trump, nor did he mention any other elected official.
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Site: Zero HedgeHow China Is Reusing Its Dying EV Batteries And Solar PanelsTyler Durden Tue, 05/13/2025 - 23:00
China is ramping up efforts to build a circular economy around its booming clean energy sector, as retired batteries and solar panels pile up and global trade tensions make critical minerals harder to source, according to the South China Morning Post.
“There is huge potential in the business of new-energy waste, because new energy is where China and the world are going,” said Ma Long, sales manager at a Henan Hairui Intelligent Technology subsidiary. His company already generates 70% of its business from battery and solar panel recycling equipment.
China’s rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and solar power is driving this trend. After a decade of EV growth, the country is now facing a “large-scale retirement of car batteries,” with retired batteries expected to exceed 4 million tonnes annually by 2028 and generate over 280 billion yuan (US$38.5 billion) in industry output, according to state estimates. Retired photovoltaic modules are also set to surge in the next five years.
“The recycling of minerals is largely for the sake of resource security,” said Du Huanzheng, a circular economy expert at Tongji University. He noted that China’s recycling push, once focused on pollution control, is now also about boosting economic growth and cutting reliance on imported minerals amid rising tensions with the U.S. and its allies.
A Beijing-based professor of environmental economics warned that China is “facing more difficulty in buying from allies of the US, such as Australia and Canada,” while other suppliers like Congo and Chile could be pressured by U.S. trade policy. “Business with other [mineral] suppliers may also be affected,” he added.
In response, China has created the state-owned China Resources Recycling Group to build a nationwide recycling network for products from electronics to retired wind and solar equipment.
The SCMP article says that big players like CATL and BYD are leading the way in battery recycling, but smaller companies are rushing in. Yu Zhongkai, senior manager at Tianli Technology, said a quarter of his company’s business now comes from battery-recycling equipment. “But we’re still experimenting, because there are no industry-wide standards yet, and the market is still unclear,” he admitted.
China’s recycling industry remains in its infancy, though its complete industrial chain and massive market give it an edge over global competitors. Du cautioned that despite investor enthusiasm, “large-scale recycling has yet to come, and a mature recycling system has yet to be formed.”
The government is tightening regulations, with 156 companies on a white list to standardize battery recycling and prevent safety and environmental risks. In February, the State Council passed an action plan to improve car battery recycling, following a December directive mandating stronger quality assurance and product traceability.
Guangdong Brunp Recycling Technology, a CATL subsidiary, claims it can recover over 99% of key metals from retired batteries. “It ensures that the batteries go where they came from, and it improves the resilience of the new-energy industry’s supply chain,” said CEO Li Changdong.
However, challenges remain. Many retired batteries end up in illegal workshops, and rural households are starting to discard old solar panels directly into trash bins, warned environmental activist Chen Liwen.
For now, legal recyclers face overcapacity as waste collection lags behind, but Ma expects the situation to improve as regulations tighten and battery retirements surge.
“So, overall, this is a big track to follow in the next few decades,” he said.
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Site: Zero HedgeEPA Targets Engine Start-Stop Systems In Cars... That Everyone HatesTyler Durden Tue, 05/13/2025 - 22:35
Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The Trump administration is taking aim at automatic engine start-stop systems—technology installed in millions of U.S. vehicles to reduce fuel use and emissions—with Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin signaling plans to roll back incentives for the feature that he says drivers despise.
People wait to drive through the Holland Tunnel into New York during morning rush hour in Jersey City, N.J., on March 8, 2023. Ted Shaffrey/AP Photo
“Start/stop technology: where your car dies at every red light so companies get a climate participation trophy,” Zeldin wrote in a May 12 post on social media. “EPA approved it, and everyone hates it, so we’re fixing it.”
Zeldin’s announcement comes amid a broader shift under President Donald Trump, whose administration has moved aggressively to dismantle a range of environmental rules it says put pointless burdens on energy producers, manufacturers, and consumers.
While the EPA doesn’t require start-stop systems, it has granted automakers fuel economy credits for adopting the technology. Zeldin’s post suggests the agency may eliminate or revise those incentives, though officials have yet to announce formal policy changes.
The EPA declined to provide details of any plans to revise or eliminate existing incentives in response to an inquiry from The Epoch Times.
Start-stop systems are designed to automatically shut off a vehicle’s engine when it stops—at a red light, for example—and restart it when the driver releases the brake. Proponents say the technology helps reduce emissions and saves drivers money at the pump by improving fuel economy. Critics say that it’s annoying, unnecessary, and sometimes difficult to disable. In most vehicles, drivers must press a button to turn the feature off each time they start the car.
The feature became increasingly common under fuel efficiency rules implemented during the Obama administration, expanding from fewer than 1 percent of new vehicles in 2012 to about 45 percent in model year 2021, according to EPA data. The agency notes on its website that start-stop systems can improve fuel economy by up to 5 percent, with the biggest benefits under stop-and-go city driving.
An Obama-era regulatory impact analysis from 2012 estimated that start-stop systems can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 1.8 percent to 2.4 percent, depending on vehicle type and size, compared with baseline models. The systems have helped cut nearly 10 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions per year, according to The Battery Council International.
Zeldin’s remarks come as the Trump administration pursues a sweeping deregulatory agenda across multiple agencies.
On May 9, Trump directed agencies to rescind federal water efficiency standards for household appliances such as showerheads, toilets, dishwashers, and washing machines—calling them relics of a “radical green agenda” that reduced performance and increased costs.
“The federal government should not impose or enforce regulations that make taxpayers’ lives worse,” Trump wrote in a memo, saying the rules made appliances less useful, more prone to failure, and costlier to fix.
The Department of Energy has also begun rolling back efficiency rules for outdoor heaters, decorative hearth products, and other miscellaneous appliances. In each case, the administration says it is eliminating unnecessary regulations and restoring consumer choice, while environmental advocates say the changes could undermine years of progress on conservation and fighting climate change.
“Under President Trump’s leadership, the Department of Energy is returning to common sense–and that means giving the American people the ability to choose which heaters they use in their own backyards,” Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said in a May 2 statement. “To date, rescinding or delaying unnecessary consumer regulations such as this have saved the taxpayers nearly $24 billion–and we’re just getting started.”
The EPA’s expected rollback of incentives for start-stop systems would mark another high-profile pivot away from the climate policies of previous administrations.
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Site: Zero HedgeTurmeric Lowers Blood Pressure-How To Get the Most Out Of ItTyler Durden Tue, 05/13/2025 - 22:15
Authored by Zena le Roux via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
If you’ve cut salt, eased up on caffeine, and tried to stress less, and your blood pressure still won’t budge, perhaps a golden spice in your kitchen cabinet can ease your efforts.
Curcumin is found in the root of the turmeric plant, giving it its distinctive golden hue and earthy flavor. It belongs to a group of plant-based substances called polyphenols, known for their antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effects.
These effects may help explain why curcumin—turmeric’s most active compound—is being studied for its potential to support healthy blood pressure.
A Natural Ally for Blood Pressure Control
The most convenient and widely available source of curcumin is turmeric powder, a pantry staple that adds color and flavor to a variety of dishes.
Curcumin may help lower blood pressure and improve blood vessel function by reducing the thickening and stiffness of arterial walls, a common issue in chronic hypertension.
Based mostly on animal studies, in some cases, curcumin has also reversed damage—such as thickening and scarring—to blood vessels, especially in pulmonary arterial hypertension, which causes blood vessels to narrow and blood pressure in the lungs to increase.
Curcumin may also protect the kidneys and heart, which are key to keeping blood pressure in check.
In animal studies, curcumin has also been found to relax blood vessels by increasing nitric oxide levels, which helps improve blood flow and reduce resistance in the arteries.
Get the Most Out of Turmeric
Although curcumin offers many health benefits, its bioavailability is poor, meaning the body doesn’t easily absorb it.
“After being consumed, only a small amount is absorbed through the small intestine, and much of it is quickly broken down by the liver,” Chantelle van der Merwe, a registered dietitian, explained. Very little curcumin actually makes it into the bloodstream to have an effect, she added.
To overcome this challenge, researchers have explored ways to improve curcumin’s absorption and effectiveness. One method includes adding ingredients such as black pepper, which helps slow the breakdown and enhance the absorption and retention of curcumin, according to van der Merwe.
* * *
Grab some potent turmeric here...
Anti-Inflammatory packed with antioxidants. Give it a shot, we take it daily...
Piperine, the active compound in black pepper, blocks certain liver enzymes that would typically break down curcumin.
Piperine may also help by stimulating the release of digestive enzymes from the pancreas, improving overall digestion and nutrient absorption, and increasing blood supply to the digestive system, van der Merwe said.
Since curcumin is also fat-soluble, meaning it requires fat to be absorbed, eating turmeric with a fat source—such as avocado, olive oil, or coconut milk—can help the body absorb it better, van der Merwe said. Without fat, curcumin has a harder time transporting across the gut wall and into the body, limiting its effectiveness, she said.
How to Incorporate Curcumin Into Meals
Beyond how we pair turmeric to boost absorption, it’s a versatile ingredient that can be easily added to a variety of dishes and snacks.
Turmeric is traditionally used in curries and enhances the flavor of soups, marinades, and rice dishes, van der Merwe said. In baking, turmeric can add a unique twist to cookies and breads. It also blends beautifully into herbal teas, smoothies, or milk.
“My personal favorite ways to enjoy turmeric include spicy, savory muffins packed with vegetables, a soothing blend of rooibos tea with ginger and turmeric, and the classic pairing of a curry served with savory yellow rice,” van der Merwe said.
“I personally love it in my overnight oats,” Mary Curristin, nutritionist at ART Health Solutions, told The Epoch Times. Her other options include stirring it into scrambled eggs or roasted vegetables.
Remember that a small amount goes a long way—typically, one-fourth to one-half teaspoon of turmeric powder per serving delivers ample flavor and color, depending on personal taste and intensity preferences. Van der Merwe said turmeric also works well with spices such as cumin, coriander, ginger, cinnamon, and cardamom, creating aromatic and flavorful combinations in a variety of cuisines.
Golden Latte Recipe
One of the best ways to enjoy turmeric is in a cozy golden milk latte. This drink tastes great and brings those health benefits right to your cup—especially when paired with a pinch of black pepper for optimal absorption.
Ingredients
350 ml milk of choice
¼ teaspoon ground turmeric
¼ teaspoon ground ginger
½ teaspoon ground cinnamon
1 teaspoon raw honey or maple syrup
½ teaspoon vanilla extract
Grind of black pepper
Instructions
Combine all the ingredients in a saucepan and whisk continuously over low heat or using a milk frother if you have one. Once heated, pour into mugs and top with a sprinkle of cinnamon before serving.
To make this golden milk latte truly your own, feel free to tweak the recipe based on your taste preferences:
- Customize the spice mix to your liking. If you’re a fan of a spicier kick, try adding extra black pepper, ginger, or even a pinch of cayenne pepper.
- For a creamier texture, use a richer milk, like full-fat coconut milk, or add a spoonful of coconut oil or ghee.
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Site: Zero HedgeTrump Admin Targets Journal's "Proximal Origin" Paper Which Dismissed Possible Wuhan Lab AccidentTyler Durden Tue, 05/13/2025 - 21:45
Authored by Paul D. Thacker via the DisInformation Chronicle,
A brief flurry of media reports last month criticized letters sent to medical journals by Edward R. Martin Jr., the former interim U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, who questioned whether journals have become “partisans in various scientific debates.” One liberal academic called the letters “fascist tactics” designed “to intimidate academic journals” triggering similar allegations across the media.
“Experts worry this will have a chilling effect on publications,” reported the New York Times, noting that an obscure journal called CHEST had been targeted.
“DOJ questions science journal about bias, triggering free-speech concerns,” reported the Washington Post, adding that three major publishers of medical journals, including the New England Journal of Medicine and Health Affairs, said they had not received letters, while publisher Springer Nature chose not to comment. NPR reported last week that the New England Journal of Medicine had in fact received a letter as had the American Medical Association’s journal JAMA.
The DisInformation Chronicle has learned that the actual target of Martin’s letters is the Nature Springer journal Nature Medicine, publisher of a highly controversial paper “Proximal Origin” which has faced charges of corruption and calls for retraction. A source inside the Department of Health and Human Services said Trump officials suspect the paper is a quid pro quo, written by the authors to dismiss the possibility of a lab accident and who then received a large grant months later from Tony Fauci.
The existence of the Nature Medicine letter has not been previously reported and is being made public for the first time. After Martin lost support among Republicans to be confirmed as U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, President Trump picked him to head a new Weaponization Working Group inside the Justice Department.
Follow the science
Published in the third month of the COVID pandemic and arguing “we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible,” the “Proximal Origin” paper became a handy tool for NIH officials and virologists attempting to dismiss as a “conspiracy theory” claims that the pandemic could have started in a Wuhan lab funded by Fauci. Nature Medicine’s editor-in-chief, Joao Monteiro, tweeted that the paper “put conspiracy theories” about the pandemic’s possible lab origin to rest.
NIH Director Francis Collins promoted the “Proximal Origin” paper weeks after Nature Medicine published it on his March 2020 NIH Director's Blog, and Fauci then seized upon the paper during a televised White House briefing a month afterwards.
“There was a study recently that we can make available to you,” Fauci said during the White House briefing, “where a group of highly qualified evolutionary virologists look at the sequences there and the sequences in bats as they evolve and the mutations that it took to get to the point where it is now is totally consistent with a jump of species from an animal to a human.”
The paper would go on to become one of the most heavily cited scientific papers in 2020. The Nation reported in 2023 that “Proximal Origin” had been accessed online more than 5.7 million times and more than 2,000 media outlets had cited it. ABC News, for instance, ran an article titled “Sorry, Conspiracy Theorists. Study Concludes Covid-19 ‘Is Not a Laboratory Construct.’”
But by then, cracks had already appeared.
Follow the money, follow the documents
Emails made public through freedom of information act requests and by congressional investigators in 2022 showed that the papers’ authors had run it past funders—Francis Collins and Tony Fauci at the NIH, as well as with Jeremy Farrar, who was then at the Wellcome Trust. In one example, lead author Kristian Andersen with the Scripps Research Institute emailed the three funders thanking them for their “advice and leadership” and offering them a right to comment and give suggestions.
Further emails and internal slack discussions calling into question the credibility of “Proximal Origin” became public in the summer of 2023 following a congressional hearing. During the hearing, Republicans charged that Tony Fauci had helped orchestrate the paper’s publication. However, Democrats countered by releasing a report that found Wellcome Trust’s Jeremy Farrar helped “organize and facilitate” and “led the drafting process of the paper.”
“Jeremy, Dr. Farrar has been an amazing leader,” wrote “Proximal Origin” co-author Robert Garry of Tulane University in an email released by House Democrats. “Should be author.”
When questioned about his email during a House deposition, Garry agreed that Farrar should have been listed as an author.
According to Nature’s editorial policy, “A specific role for the funder in the conceptualization, design, data collection, analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript, should be disclosed.” However, the paper failed to note the involvement of either Fauci or Farrar, and Nature Medicine has refused to follow its own ethics guidelines.
News sites the Racket and Public co-published a slack message Andersen sent to his “Proximal Origin” co-authors on April 16, 2020, a month after Nature Medicine published the paper in March 2020.
“I’m still not fully convinced that no culture was involved,” Andersen wrote his co-authors, a month after publishing the paper that concluded the virus was not a laboratory construct. “We also can't fully rule out engineering (for basic research).”
Days after the congressional hearing, the group BioSafety Now wrote a letter to Nature Medicine, signed by over 50 scientists, demanding retraction of “Proximal Origin.” The letter cited an investigation published by The Nation reporting on internal emails by the “Proximal Origin” authors that showed they didn’t even believe what they wrote in the paper.
“The main issue is that accidental release is in fact highly likely,” the Nation reported that Andersen wrote in a message to co-authors some weeks before Nature Medicine published the paper. An online campaign by BioSafety Now has since garnered over 5,700 signatures petitioning Nature Medicine to retract the paper.
In his letter to Nature Medicine, Martin wrote that he has been told that some journals “have a position for which they are advocating due to advertisement (under postal code) or sponsorship (under relevant fraud regulations).”
The letter also asks, “How do you clearly articulate to the public when you have certain viewpoints that are influenced by your ongoing relations with supporters, funders, advertisers, and others?”
A source close to the investigation said this question pertains to a grant Fauci awarded Andersen and Garry several months after they published “Proximal Origin” dismissing the possibility of a lab accident. Allegations that this grant was a bribe from Fauci have dogged Andersen for several years, accusations which he dismissed under oath during the July 2023 congressional hearing.
“There is no connection between the grant and the conclusions we reached about the origin of the pandemic,” Andersen wrote in sworn testimony to Congress. “We applied for this grant in June 2019, and it was scored and reviewed by independent experts in November 2019.”
The Intercept later reported that Andersen “knew that was false.” NIH records show the grant to Andersen wasn’t finalized until May 21, 2020, two months after Andersen published “Proximal Origin” in Nature Medicine.
In a guest essay earlier this month for The DisInformation Chronicle, an NIH infectious disease researcher wrote that the “Proximal Origin” authors left a gaping hole in their analysis by failing to account for a common method to manipulate viruses called “serial passaging.”
“And because they didn’t discuss this very common laboratory practice, they did not ‘disprove’ a laboratory origin for the virus,” the NIH research official wrote. “I have no idea how ignoring something so obvious could make it pass peer review and get published in a prestigious journal like Nature Medicine.”
Subscribe to The DisInformation Chronicle here...
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Site: Zero HedgeStudent Loan Delinquencies Surge, Hammer Credit Scores - Southern States Hit HardestTyler Durden Tue, 05/13/2025 - 18:50
The party is over for millions of Americans who paused payments on their federal student loans over the last several years through pandemic-era forbearance programs. Many had hoped for sweeping loan forgiveness under the Biden-Harris administration, But with the federal government officially resuming collections on defaulted loans this month—for the first time in over five years—borrowers now face sliding credit scores as delinquencies soar, while in April we warned the restart could drain as much as $63 billion from the economy.
On Tuesday, the Center for Microeconomic Data at the New York Fed released its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, updated through the first quarter of 2025.
Within the report is a snapshot of consumer credit profiles, including the sharp rise in delinquent student loan debt that's now piling up.
Starting with a 10,000-foot view; in the first quarter of 2025 the aggregate U.S. delinquency rate climbed to 4.3% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency - up from 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Total aggregate household debt increased by $167 billion in the quarter, up .9% from 4Q24, while overall, America's consumer debt balance now stands at a whopping $18.20 trillion - an increase of more than $4 trillion since 4Q19.
Narrowing it down, while early-stage delinquency rates remained stable across most debt categories, student loans bucked the trend, posting a sharp increase as the federal government resumed credit reporting on missed payments for the first time in nearly five years.
"Transition into early delinquency held steady for nearly all debt types; the exception was for student loans, which saw a large uptick in the rate at which balances went from current to delinquent due to the resumption of reporting of delinquent student loans on credit reports after a nearly 5-year pause due to the pandemic," the quarterly report said.
The shift comes amid the expiration of pandemic-era forbearance, exposing millions of borrowers to renewed repayment obligations.
Last month, Education Secretary Linda McMahon told President Trump at a Cabinet meeting:
"We're going to start getting it back," adding "For those people who have borrowed money and have not been paying -- that's just not to be punitive, there are many ways that they can go online to understand how they can get back into the right payment structure. Because when they're in default, they can't buy a house, they can't buy a car, their credit scores go down."
Also reported last month (full note available to premium subs), student-loan delinquencies have increased since the pandemic-era forbearance on repayment ended in September 2023. The Biden administration allowed a year for payments to fully ramp back up, which temporarily suppressed delinquency rates. Now, though, missed payments are crossing the 90-day threshold and showing up on borrowers' credit reports.
Transition rates into serious delinquency (90+ days past due) held steady for auto loans and credit cards, but rose for mortgages, HELOCs, and, notably, student loans, reflecting growing financial strain among consumers.
Bloomberg noted:
Transitioning into serious delinquency (90-plus days late) for student loans rose to tie a 10-year-old record for those age 50 and older. Among that cohort, 11.23%, or around one in nine households, is now seriously delinquent on their student loan debt. Americans age 50 and older held $418.5 billion in student loan debt, split among 9.2 million borrowers. The ratios of serious delinquency for younger age groups was lower but still rose sharply. The average age of a delinquent borrower ticked up to 40.4.
The Fed's data shows that the credit hit is substantial for newly delinquent student loan borrowers. Among the 7.5% who had a relatively high credit score of at least 720 before the delinquency, their scores dropped by 177 points on average. Overall, the Fed found that 2.2 million borrowers saw their credit scores drop by at least 100 points.
Data from Bloomberg shows the student debt bubble stood at a record high of $1.63 trillion.
New York Fed economists via Liberty Street Economics published a note with more color about the student loan turmoil unfolding, indicating "more than twenty million federal borrowers were not in repayment and five million federal borrowers had a zero dollar monthly payment," adding, "Among borrowers who were required to make payments, nearly one in four student loan borrowers (23.7 percent) were behind on their student loans in the first quarter of 2025."
The economists noted that seven states have a conditional borrower delinquency rate over 30%: Mississippi (44.6%), Alabama (34.1%), West Virginia (34.0%), Kentucky (33.6%), Oklahoma (33.6%), Arkansas (33.5%), and Louisiana (31.8%). These states are located in the heartland and are primarily Trump states.
The economists offered their take on the grave situation:
After a five-year hiatus, student loan delinquency has returned to the pre-pandemic "normal" with more than 10 percent of balances and roughly six million borrowers either past due or in default. The ramifications of student loan delinquency are severe.
The U.S. Department of Education, in concert with the U.S. Treasury, began collection efforts for defaulted loans in May, which includes the garnishment of wages, tax returns, and Social Security payments.
Additionally, millions of borrowers face steep declines in their credit standing which will increase borrowing costs or seriously limit their access to credit like mortgages and auto loans. It is unclear whether these penalties will spill over into payment difficulties in other credit products, but we will continue to monitor this space in the coming months.
Millennials and GenX feeling the brunt of student debt woes.
Credit score downgrades begin...
More:
What's critical to understand is that delinquent student loan debt continues to pile up quickly, increasingly hitting borrowers' credit reports. This growing wave of defaults could trigger a domino effect on consumer spending, potentially dragging down GDP by as much as $63 billion—a risk we warned about in our note titled The Next Economic Shock: Student Loan Default Wave = $63 Billion GDP Hit ...
. . .
View the full report here:
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Site: Zero HedgeThe Deep State Goes ViralTyler Durden Tue, 05/13/2025 - 18:25
The following is Jeffrey Tucker’s Foreword introduction to Debbie Lerman’s new book, The Deep State Goes Viral: Pandemic Planning and the Covid Coup.
It was about a month into lockdowns, April 2020, and my phone rang with an unusual number. I picked up and the caller identified himself as Rajeev Venkayya, a name I knew from my writings on the 2005 pandemic scare. Now the head of a vaccine company, he once served as Special Assistant to the President for Biodefense, and claimed to be the inventor of pandemic planning.
Venkayya was a primary author of “A National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza” as issued by the George W. Bush administration in 2005.
It was the first document that mapped out a nascent version of lockdowns, designed for global deployment.
“A flu pandemic would have global consequences,” said Bush, “so no nation can afford to ignore this threat, and every nation has responsibilities to detect and stop its spread.”
It was always a strange document because it stood in constant contradiction to public health orthodoxies dating back decades and even a century.
With it, there were two alternative paths in place in the event of a new virus: the normal path that everyone is taught in medical school (therapeutics for the sick, caution with social disturbances, calm and reason, quarantines only in extreme cases) and a biosecurity path that invoked totalitarian measures.
Those two paths existed side-by-side for a decade and a half before the lockdowns.
Now I found myself speaking with the guy who claims credit for having mapped out the biosecurity approach, which contradicted all public health wisdom and experience. His plan was finally being implemented. Not too many voices dissented, partially due to fear but also due to censorship, which was already very tight. He told me to stop objecting to the lockdowns because they have everything under control.
I asked a basic question. Let’s say we all hunker down, hide under the sofa, eschew physical meetings with family and friends, stop all gatherings of all kinds, and keep businesses and schools closed. What, I asked, happens to the virus itself? Does it jump in a hole in the ground or head to Mars for fear of another press conference by Andrew Cuomo or Anthony Fauci?
After some fallacy-filled banter about the R-naught, I could tell he was getting exasperated with me, and finally, with some hesitation, he told me the plan. There would be a vaccine. I balked and said that no vaccine can sterilize against a fast-mutating respiratory pathogen with a zoonotic reservoir. Even if such a thing did appear, it would take 10 years of trials and testing before it was safe to release to the general population. Are we going to stay locked down for a decade?
“It will come much faster,” he said. “You watch. You will be surprised.”
Hanging up, I recall dismissing him as a crank, a has-been with nothing better to do than call up poor writers and bug them.
I had entirely misread the meaning, simply because I was not prepared to understand the sheer depth and vastness of the operation now in play. All that was taking place struck me as obviously destructive and fundamentally flawed but rooted in a kind of intellectual error: a loss of understanding of virology basics.
Around the same time, the New York Times posted without fanfare a new document called PanCAP-A: Pandemic Crisis Action Plan – Adapted. It was Venkayya’s plan, only intensified, as released on March 13, 2020, three days before President Trump’s press conference announcing the lockdowns. I read through it, reposted it, but had no idea what it meant. I hoped someone could come along to explain it, interpret it, and tease out its implications, all in the interest of getting to the bottom of the who, what, and why of this fundamental attack on civilization itself.
That person did come along. She is Debbie Lerman, intrepid author of this wonderful book that so beautifully presents the best thoughts on all the questions that had eluded me. She took the document apart and discovered a fundamental truth therein. The rule-making authority for the pandemic response was not vested in public-health agencies but the National Security Council.
This was stated as plain as day in the document; I had somehow missed that. This was not public health. It was national security. The antidote under development with the label vaccine was really a military countermeasure. In other words, this was Venkayya’s plan times ten, and the idea was precisely to override all tradition and public health concerns and replace them with national security measures.
Realizing this fundamentally changes the structure of the story of the last five years. This is not a story of a world that mysteriously forgot about natural immunity and made some intellectual error in thinking that governments could shut down economies and turn them back on again, scaring a pathogen back to where it came from. What we experienced in a very real sense was quasi-martial law, a deep-state coup not only on a national but on an international level.
These are terrifying thoughts and hardly anyone is prepared to discuss them, which is why Lerman’s book is so crucial. In terms of public debate about what happened to us, we are barely at the beginning. There is now a willingness to admit that the lockdowns did more overall harm than good. Even the legacy media has started venturing out to grant permission for such thoughts. But the role of the pharmaceuticals in driving the policy and the role of the national-security state in backing this grand industrial project is still taboo.
In 21st-century journalism and advocacy designed to influence the public mind, the overwhelming concern of all writers and institutions is professional survival. That means fitting into an approved ethos or paradigm regardless of the facts. This is why Lerman’s thesis is not debated; it is hardly spoken of at all in polite society. That said, my work at Brownstone Institute has put me in close contact with many thinkers in high places. This much I can say: what Lerman has written in this book is not disputed but admitted in private.
Strange isn’t it? We saw during the Covid years how professional aspiration incentivized silence even in the face of egregious violations of human rights, including mandatory school closures that robbed children of education, followed by face-covering requirements and forced injections for the whole population. The near-silence was deafening even if anyone with a brain and a conscience knew that all of this was wrong. Not even the excuse that “We didn’t know” works anymore because we did know.
This same dynamic of social and cultural control is fully in operation now that we are through that stage and onto another one, which is precisely why Lerman’s findings have not yet made their way to polite society, to say nothing of mainstream media. Will we get there? Maybe. This book can help; at least it is now available for everyone brave enough to confront the facts. You will find herein the most well-documented and coherent presentation of answers to the core questions (what, how, why) that all of us have been asking since this hell was first visited upon us.
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Site: Zero HedgeThe Manipulators' PlaybookTyler Durden Tue, 05/13/2025 - 17:40
Authored by Gigi Foster via The Brownstone Institute,
[Here is the text of my TedX talk in Australia, October 2024, which the sponsor refused to post]
Every four years, when I was growing up in the US, my mother and father would go to the polling booths and cancel each other out. They’d come home and say as much, with a smirk. Then they’d clink their glasses and have “cocktail hour” together, and enjoy the end of another day of married life in each other’s arms.
Mom was a lifelong Democrat and Dad a lifelong Republican. Back then, people firmly positioned on opposing sides of politics could talk to one another – and even, apparently, marry each other and produce kids! Do you think that is common today? The “cancellation” my parents joked about 30 years ago has, today, become no laughing matter.
Diversity is one of humanity’s greatest gifts. Despite outward appearances, the person right next to us typically does NOT share exactly the same beliefs, perspectives, or assumptions that we hold. Look at that person now, being aware of this reality. Shock horror! You are not sitting next to a mental clone of yourself! Well, thank god for that, some of you may be saying. How boring would the world be if no one we met could teach us anything new?
I have grown all my life, as have you, by being exposed to new and different ideas, methods, and mindsets. At a societal level, all growth in quality of life ultimately comes from innovation. Innovation in turn can be seen as the manifested potential of diversity: the discovery of an idea or an approach that’s different from what is circulating in the mainstream. This is one of the crowning lessons of my home discipline of economics.
Yet individual and societal access to the potent and progressive power of diversity of thought was acutely damaged during the Covid era.
This damage was done by the mainstreaming – by politicians, bureaucracies, large companies, the media, whole professions, academic disciplines, and even families – of a single accepted view on many Covid topics. On the subjects of lockdowns, masks, and vaccines, it was made very clear by those in authority that one way was correct, and alternatives were wrong. Not only were other views wrong, but anyone who challenged the mainstream view on lockdowns, masking, or especially mass Covid vaccination was labelled as a danger to public health, a tinfoil-hat wearing conspiracy theorist wedded to wacko, fringe ideas. Probably a prepper. Or a cooker. Maybe a “religious nut-job.” Almost surely a “far-right” adherent, and probably racist to boot.
In short, there was denigration, gaslighting, and suppression of dissenting (that is, diverse) voices on those topics, with this suppression of a core societal strength done in the name of preserving the health and strength of society.
That sounds ironic, but actually it’s a well-worn playbook from history.
This is the same trick that has been pulled in other historical tragedies, from the Cultural Revolution to the rise of the Third Reich.
In the case of the Cultural Revolution, Chinese citizens were urged by those in authority to “smash the four olds” – referring to old habits, old customs, old culture, and old ideas – and instead to “cultivate the four new,” which allegedly would rejuvenate the great nation of China by accelerating the “proletariat revolution” after the tragic failure of the Great Leap Forward that left tens of millions dead or starving. The Great Leap itself was the ideological progeny of the Chinese authorities, rather than a grassroots movement – and naturally those authorities never directly admitted its failure.
During the Cultural Revolution, Chinese citizens – weakened by the tragedy of the Great Leap – dutifully sacrificed what they and their ancestors had previously been taught for centuries to revere. Ancient temples were destroyed, shopkeepers and others associated with “old ideas” like capitalism were denigrated and abused, and even elderly people were assaulted and killed, just for being old.
Such actions ran strongly against traditional Chinese values, so performing such actions and aiding and abetting those who performed them was a significant sacrifice in terms of morality, and even personal identity, for many Chinese people. Individuals who did not conform with the mainstream line were socially excluded or punished in other ways. Of course, the result of the Cultural Revolution was not a successful, nationally rejuvenating revolution, but even more death and destruction.
In the case of the rise of the Third Reich, those in authority preyed upon the economic and moral suffering of the German people after the Great War. As National Socialism rose to prominence in Germany, Jewish people, those with sympathies for communism, and others were demonised as “enemies of the state.”
The sacrifice eventually asked of the suffering German citizens, allegedly in order to strengthen the “fatherland” that they loved, was essentially to dehumanise other human beings. The Biblical phrase “He who is not with us is against us” was used to implicitly encourage the quashing of dissident views and those who held them.
This nudge to see dissenters as dangerous was coupled with heavy censorship, such as book-burning and criminalising the act of listening to foreign radio stations, and the creation and promotion of state propaganda that mainstreamed the accepted viewpoint, including through films like Triumph of the Will. Of course, the result of the Nazis’ reign was not a strengthening of Germany but rather total defeat, moral bankruptcy, and international humiliation.
In both of these tragic historical cases and in the more recent tragic case of Covid policy, the pattern is this: People in authority assert that the many sacrifices they are proposing are necessary to preserve and enhance the nation, simultaneously quashing any alternative views. Those who object are denigrated and despised as not caring about the nation, or about whoever or whatever is supposedly receiving the benefits of the sacrifice.
Think about how this pattern played out in the Covid era.
Do you remember calling anyone a ‘granny killer’ in the Covid era – or being called one yourself? I do. From March 2020 onwards, I advocated against lockdowns, seeing how costly they were to health and wealth, and seeing no scientific evidence of their medical efficacy.
But for years, I was insulted and denigrated in mainstream circles by those following the standard Covid policy lines. I was called a granny-killer and a “neoliberal Trumpkinaut death cult warrior.” I received death threats and, worse, people made memes about me. (I don’t really know what this one means, but the Harry Potter fans in the audience might.)
I was defamed on Twitter even though I’ve never had a Twitter account. I was smeared as being anti-health and anti-“saving lives,” and these smears were used in attempts to get me to shut up about the costs of the lockdown policy that was being promoted in the mainstream as the ONLY way to preserve health and save lives.
Well, I didn’t shut up, and four years on after the start of the madness, hundreds of books, academic papers, and tragic personal stories now confirm I was right: the Covid lockdowns didn’t save lives, but were instead a massive human sacrifice induced by fear, politics, and money. The lockdowns did not lead to victory over Covid, but rather to a weakened nation with more debt, less societal strength and cohesion, and less health than before Covid. I’ve written here in detail about the massive damage inflicted on Australia, and particularly Australian youth, by Covid lockdowns.
The well-worn playbook is as follows: when populations are weakened, such as by severe economic distress or a great fear of some external threat, the people in charge advocate for policies that happen to be good for them politically and turn out also to be destructive to society (something often admitted in history books only much later), while wrapping their policies at the time in the “red threads” of altruism, pro-sociality, strengthening the nation, or preserving health, as a sales pitch to the weakened population. The implicit message is “If you really love something, you should be willing to sacrifice for it, and this is the sacrifice that is now required.”
Why does this work? For two reasons: fear and love.
First, it works because fear makes us forget about everything except the feared object, weakening our ability to reason and think for ourselves, making us easy targets.
Second, it works because our love for things outside ourselves – including our country, our parents, our children, and our gods – is a powerful motivator of our thoughts and our actions, and so we are vulnerable to being manipulated by it.
Understanding love is crucial in explaining human behaviour, which is why I co-wrote a book about it over a decade ago. Love is the most important thing in the world: it is the building block of societies, and the ultimate source of joy and meaning. If we are not careful, we can be manipulated by our loves when we are fooled into believing that some sacrifice is needed in order to preserve the welfare of something we love. If we can be convinced of that, then we will often willingly make the sacrifice.
People’s fear, combined with their pro-social connection to one another and to their society, was used during the Covid era as it has been at so many other points in history to manipulate them into supporting policies that actually, in the long run, harmed that society. When told that we had to lock down, mask up, pull our children out of schools, and mass-vaccinate against Covid, many Australians willingly went along with these enormous sacrifices, because of their fear and their love.
That is a testament not only to the power of fear, but to how much we love each other. Yet tragically, our loves – including our children, our parents, and the nation of Australia – were greatly harmed by these policies. If you’re interested in exploring this topic further, I have co-authored this book with Paul Frijters and Michael Baker, The Great Covid Panic: What happened, why, and what to do next, published in 2021.
My loving advice to you today – the one thing I want you to take away from my talk – is to be alert to those in authority who would manipulate you by exploiting your loves. This manipulation usually starts with an implicit request that you sacrifice some moral principle, some right, or some assumption that you previously took for granted as patently obvious, with that sacrifice supposedly going to benefit something that is universally loved.
That universally-loved beneficiary might be planet Earth – in the case of green energy subsidies, the “net-zero transition,” and the sacrifice of ignoring the fact that cheap, dense fuels are critical to human thriving and a key ingredient in lifting people out of poverty. It might be people’s desire to find the truth – in the case of internet censorship and denigrating some views as “misinformation” or “disinformation,” thereby ironically sacrificing the right to decide for yourself what is true. It might even be women as a group – in the case of the #metoo movement and the sacrifice of denigrating half the human race as dangerous sex predators whose “toxic masculinity” threatens women.
In all such cases, ask yourself: Is the proposed sacrifice truly going to help the alleged and universally loved recipient? Would people in power directly benefit in some way from this sacrifice, politically or monetarily? Am I being manipulated by my loves into being just another nodding head, helping those in positions of authority to weaken my society?
The most powerful antidote to this clear and present danger is the seeking out, preservation, and uplifting of diversity of thought. Allowing dissent holds the power to reveal false promises for what they are.
How can you personally promote diversity of thought, and nurture an environment in which open dissent is possible?
You can promote and celebrate forums where people are allowed and encouraged to think, discuss, critically analyse, and ponder aloud together, respectfully, confidently, and joyfully, becoming closer to one another as they do, sharing their common humanity without the crutch of also sharing beliefs and perspectives.
You can support alternative schools of thought, like this one called Academia Libera Mentis that has just started up in Belgium.
You can be part of Big Dialogues about contemporary social, economic, and political issues, dialogues that help us rebuild a society capable of discussing meaningful ideas with one another, across aisles of perspective, belief, experience, and mindset.
You can join a grassroots movement focused on restoring the respect that used to be embedded in Western culture for individual freedom – including expressive and academic freedom – and the scientific method, using which people have horse-raced competing ideas since the Enlightenment.
Initiatives like these help restore our societies by honouring our deep and powerful diversity. They help to fend off and thwart the constant manipulation attempts of elites hungry for power, while building respect and nurturing progress for all. They help us build robust red threads – bonds of love for one another based not on conformity with “right-think,” but on the joy of discovering who others truly are, and expanding ourselves by contemplating and revelling in their differentness.
What will always win in the end is love, joy, confidence, tolerance, and an unshakeable belief in the infinite potential of every unique individual in the human species. But these precious things will only win in our lifetimes if we live and breathe that love, joy, confidence, tolerance, and belief, while purposefully rejecting the attempts of the powerful to manipulate and divide us by destroying our diversity. This is what eternal vigilance looks like.
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Site: Zero HedgeTaiwan's Legislature Passes Bill Easing Restrictions On Nuclear PowerTyler Durden Tue, 05/13/2025 - 17:20
It looks like nuclear power is once again becoming popular not just in the U.S., but globally.
This morning it was reported that Taiwan’s legislature passed a bill Tuesday easing restrictions on nuclear power, signaling a policy shift driven by rising energy needs and growing geopolitical tensions, according to Bloomberg.
The amended law allows nuclear plants—previously capped at 40 years of operation—to renew licenses for up to 20 years at a time, either before or after expiration, according to Legislative Speaker Han Kuo-yu.
Energy security has become critical for Taiwan as it struggles to reduce reliance on nuclear power while meeting the soaring demands of its chip industry and managing dependence on imported fossil fuels amid escalating pressure from Beijing.
Bloomberg writes that just days before Taiwan’s last reactor is set to shut down on May 17, lawmakers passed a bill signaling a potential return to nuclear power. While the closure will proceed, the move reflects a global shift back to nuclear energy as a low-carbon solution to rising demand.
Premier Cho Jung-tai said his cabinet wouldn’t oppose restarting decommissioned reactors if the law passes, but safety reviews—estimated at 3.5 years by state-owned Taipower—would delay any restarts.
Reviving nuclear power could reduce Taiwan’s dependence on imported liquefied natural gas, which is vulnerable to disruption amid rising tensions with Beijing, and help meet a projected 13% increase in power demand by 2030, driven by AI growth.
As we have continued to report, accelerating power demand growth from AI data centers has sparked a nuclear power revival in the US.
For those who missed it, in our note "The Next AI Trade" from April 2024, more than one year ago, we outlined various investment opportunities for powering up America, most of which have dramatically outperformed the market since then.
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Site: Zero HedgeDOGE's Second ActTyler Durden Tue, 05/13/2025 - 17:00
Via OpenTheBooks.substack.com,
As Elon Musk steps back, Congress, agencies and We the People need to step up...
When Elon Musk announced on a less-than-stellar Tesla earnings call that “starting probably next month, May, my time allocation to DOGE will drop significantly,” DOGE critics rejoiced.
Yet, as Teddy Roosevelt so aptly said, it’s not the critic who counts, but the person who enters the arena.
President Trump praised Musk at his cabinet meeting marking his first 100 days and said Musk “opened up a lot of eyes as to what could be done.”
Trump signaled DOGE’s first act was coming to a close, and its second act was about to begin.
At Open the Books, we’re committed to transparency and helping taxpayers understand what DOGE has uncovered. Taxpayers deserve to know what cuts have been made and what remains to be done. Critics have raised concerns in both good and bad faith, in my view, and we’re committed to a reality-based conversation about the data and results.
I’m appreciative of Musk’s effort because I know first-hand what it’s like to be demonized for trying to downsize the modern administrative state. As the long-time Communications Director and co-author for the late U.S. Representative and Senator Tom Coburn (R-OK), I spent nearly 15 years in constant combat with people who treated commonsense restraint as a crime against humanity.
Coburn, a practicing physician and citizen legislator, believed in radical concepts like reading bills before you voted on them and paying for bills that spent new money by spending less money elsewhere. He believed the Senate, the world’s greatest deliberative body, needed more debate not less. Instead of bending the knee to Senate norms like passing “non-controversial” bills by unanimous consent, Coburn would hold bills until savings could be discovered or at least debated. Some of his colleagues derided his desire for open debate as “obstructionism” and called him “Dr. No.”
In 2008, Coburn’s commitment to deliberation and spending offsets pushed then-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) over the edge. Reid bundled 36 of Coburn’s “holds” on bills ranging from the “Captive Primate Safety Act” to the “Christopher and Dana Reeve Paralysis Act” into one package called the “Advancing America’s Priorities Act.”
During one demagogic tirade, Reid declared, “You go home and tell people in a wheelchair you voted against moving forward on something that could get them out of their wheelchair.”
In Reid’s view, wanting basic research to be fiscally sustainable and financed by cuts to lower-priority items meant you were pro-paralysis. Today, it’s DOGE’s turn to endure the ire and moral condescension of scorned spenders. If DOGE’s critics in Congress hated government waste half as much as they hate Musk our debt and deficits would have been erased long ago.
To his credit, Musk often said DOGE would make mistakes but would try to correct them as quickly as possible. His admission of fallibility was refreshing and rare in politics and could have been taken as an invitation for collaboration. Sadly, partisan tribalism blinded Musk’s critics from seeing openings to find common ground.
DOGE’s second act can succeed by focusing on two key priorities that build on lessons learned in a rapid-fire first hundred days.
First, enact real-time transparency by creating “America’s Checkbook.” The most important achievement of DOGE’s first act was arguably gaining access to the Treasury Payment system, which is the administrative state’s Holy of Holies. Opening the payment temple to all taxpayers and letting them see federal expenditures in real-time would lock in a permanent and revolutionary win. Doing so would also remove much of the uncertainty on which DOGE’s critics rely – and stoke. And why not? Ordinary Americans have the same right to see America’s bank account as they do their own. After all, it’s their money.
Our founders understood that transparency was a powerful, relentless, and subversive force for freedom. Transparency cuts through government like water cuts through stone. When its steady flow finds cracks, it can wash away mighty walls of opposition. That’s why they wrote transparency into Article I of the Constitution. Their language demanding a “regular accounting” of expenditures precedes the Bill of Rights, the First Amendment and freedom of speech. They understood that in the public square transparency is like oxygen. We can’t speak if we can’t breathe.
If Madison and our framers had access to today’s technology, they would demand real-time transparency. Fortunately, the framework for real-time transparency already exists. In 2006, Coburn teamed up with an ambitious young Senator from Illinois named Barack Obama to put all federal spending online for the first time. Our dream was to create an ecosystem of organizations and citizen activists who would crowdsource oversight and put permanent downward pressure on spending.
The Coburn-Obama bill created USASpending.gov, a platform to search past federal spending. It helped enable organizations like Open the Books, which I run, to exist along with thousands of other individual accounts on platforms like X. DOGE should urgently close the gap, and lag time, between what they can see on the Treasury Payment System and what is visible to everyone else on USASpending.gov. Leaving this gap open asks taxpayers to take DOGE’s word for it. “Trust us, we’re with the government” isn’t a winning strategy whether you’re wearing a blue jersey or red jersey. In DOGE’s defense, the lack of clarity in accounting isn’t easy to correct if it’s at the source of spending. Taxpayers and Congress need much greater clarity and insight into the nature of the problem that only transparency can correct.
DOGE’s second act also should feature much closer collaboration with legislators who have the authority to enact smart and durable cuts. We already have a permanent standing deficit reduction commission. It’s called Congress. What DOGE can do is deliver its findings to Congress, and the American people, with the same level of clarity, transparency and rigor as a prosecutor would make a case in court. Then, members of Congress will have the support they need to achieve durable savings with the force of law. Cancelling contracts and Executive Orders are reversible actions. Congress has the power to make DOGE’s actions and recommendations much harder to reverse.
DOGE has a window of opportunity to work with allies in Congress who are willing to do the work necessary to achieve savings. I recently testified before the House DOGE Subcommittee during their hearing on the federal real estate portfolio. My testimony focused on a “broken windows” argument that spending less lavishly to decorate and redecorate the administrative state’s mostly vacant buildings can usher in greater savings. When DOGE, Congress and outside groups focus on commonsense savings targets the wisdom of crowds – democracy – can prevail over the bureaucracy.
Real spending cuts are achievable in Washington. Between 2011-2013, Coburn and Tea Party-era members helped achieve the first two-year spending reductions since the end of the Korean War and saved taxpayers $150 billion; we enacted a ban on earmarks that saved about $140 billion; and we leveraged debt limit negotiations to force the Government Accountability Office to publish an annual report on duplicative programs. GAO claims those have resulted in $667 billion in savings. That comes to $957 billion saved. Had we had someone of Musk’s stature in our corner we could have accomplished so much more.
As Musk transitions away from a day-to-day role, he can still invest the currency of his celebrity in serious reform efforts and challenge the country to dream big. Rather than scaling back the scope of what DOGE can accomplish and settling for $160 billion in savings, he should go back to the much more ambitious target of more than $2 trillion in savings.
This is a realistic and necessary target. President Reagan’s Grace Commission found that one in three tax dollars is wasted. In today’s budget numbers, one-third of $6.75 trillion (last year’s spending total) is $2.25 trillion. DOGE is right to investigate fraud, and their work on that front can lead to enormous savings, but hitting this larger $2 trillion target will require Congress and the administration to reimagine how mandatory programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security can better serve lower and middle-income Americans. Musk can challenge the bipartisan surrender caucus that would rather see these 90 and 60-year-old programs collapse than be renovated. When members pledge to “not touch” entitlements they are protecting themselves, not seniors or poor people. Not touching these programs guarantees their demise, American decline and weakness, and unimaginable economic suffering.
Today’s political conditions are much more favorable for fiscal reform than during the Reagan years and Tea Party era when we still made gains. In the past, demagogic attacks about hurting poor people and “keeping people in wheelchairs,” as Reid claimed, had more potency. With today’s political realignment, the GOP is now the working-class party.
Now is the time to be bold. This is a 1989 moment for America – a chance to tear down the bureaucratic wall that has separated We the People from their government for 100 years.
DOGE may be the most unifying Trump administration initiative. People hope Trump’s tariff gambit works, but they know DOGE, which is a movement more than a rebranded department, can deliver lasting change. Politicians define themselves by the hills they die on and DOGE is the high ground.
DOGE is popular because it’s rooted not just in common sense but American constitutional first principles. As Thomas Jefferson said, “The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield and government to gain ground.”
As the president said, eyes have been opened. Now it’s time to look, learn and act.
Every dollar saved in Washington is a dream realized somewhere in America. DOGE’s second act can be a time to dream new dreams and deliver real growth and opportunity.
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Site: Zero Hedge'Biggest Untold Story in Tech': Explosive Book Reveals How Apple Sold Out America To ChinaTyler Durden Tue, 05/13/2025 - 16:40
Financial Times journalist Patrick McGee has released a gripping new book that meticulously exposes Apple’s deeply troubling ties with China, revealing how these connections fueled the communist regime’s rise to a global manufacturing powerhouse.
(Nikkei Montage / Reuters)
In an interview with The Free Press founder Bari Weiss, McGee revealed key insights from his new book, Apple in China, detailing Apple’s complex relationship with the country.
Presently, approximately 155 million Americans own an iPhone - a remarkable figure that McGee contends would have been unattainable without Apple’s substantial investments in China.
“I think it’s fairly straightforward that China is the only place on the planet that has the tech competence in terms of manufacturing capability, certainly the price, the cost, the quantity, the scale,” McGee told Weiss. My novel argument is that it has those skills because Apple built them there, right? It’s not that China offered something to Apple. Apple didn’t find these skills in China; it shipped people over by the plane load and created them.”
.@PatrickMcGee_ lays out how Apple helped China become a manufacturing superpower:
— Josh Caplan (@joshdcaplan) May 13, 2025
"The number of people they trained in China since 2008 is 28 million people—larger than California's labor force."
"Apple is investing in China at twice the annual spend of the Marshall Plan." pic.twitter.com/PHDHLSBHKz“And so it’s this another layer of nuance that Apple is dependent on the very capabilities that it created. And I think this is like the biggest untold story in tech over the last 25 years. And like, my jaw was on the floor as I talked to 200 people and sort of unraveled it all. But I mean, some of the numbers— anytime you’re dealing with Apple, the numbers are just crazy. And so the two numbers that really stick out at me are that the number of people they have trained in China since 2008 is 28 million,” the Apple in China authored continued.”
“That’s larger than the labor force of California. And the investments they were making in China by 2015 were $55 billion a year. And that’s such a large number that I couldn’t find any corporate equivalent,” he added. “I had to go to nation-building efforts, and I took the Marshall Plan, the most famous nation-building effort ever, converted it to 2015 dollars, and you realize that Apple’s investing in China twice that of the annual spend of the Marshall Plan. And the Marshall Plan was for 16 countries.”
McGee outlines Apple's production hurdles and economic incentives that propelled this transformative shift, which he compares to a geopolitical event as significant as the fall of the Berlin Wall.
“I have these chapters in the book where they're trying to build iPods and the Sunflower iMac. You might remember it; it sort of looks anthropomorphic, like a Pixar lamp. It's really sexy, and my God, is it a complicated product to build,” McGee said. “And so Apple's trying to do it in Taiwan, but with the help of Singapore, Japan—you know, basically all of Southeast Asia, including China. But the more you're doing things a little bit in China and comparing the costs, the flexible demand of labor, and just the armies of affordable labor, the more it looks like China is the way to go. And they just rapidly begin to consolidate in 2003.”
Author @PatrickMcGee_: The West “sleepwalked” into making China a global powerhouse.
— Honestly with Bari Weiss (@thehonestlypod) May 13, 2025
Corporations like Apple “were setting up the world’s most sophisticated supply chain—and made the rookie and calamitous mistake of putting all their eggs in one basket. And that basket… pic.twitter.com/ASZTatTikm“So, the sort of fun line I have is that in 1999, zero products from Apple were being made in China. By 2009, virtually all of them were. And that transition, I compare to a geopolitical event, like the fall of the Berlin Wall. But it took place over many years. And it's one that I don't think we've really grappled with or understood,” the author added.
Under Tim Cook’s leadership, Apple has significantly deepened its investment in China, most notably through a secretive $275 billion, five-year agreement signed in 2016 with Chinese officials to bolster the country’s economy and technological capabilities, The Information reported in 2021. The deal, aimed at mitigating regulatory threats, included commitments to build new retail stores, research and development centers, and renewable energy projects, while fostering partnerships with local suppliers like Foxconn and enhancing China’s supply chain infrastructure.
President Donald Trump has been pushing Apple to move its manufacturing away from China, primarily through aggressive tariff policies aimed at incentivizing U.S.-based production. Since his first term, Trump has consistently advocated for Apple to bring iPhone and other product manufacturing to the United States, famously vowing in 2016, “I’m going to get Apple to start making their computers and their iPhones on our land, not in China.”
Apple has responded by shifting production for U.S.-bound iPhones to India and iPads, Apple Watches, and other products to Vietnam, with Cook confirming that by 2026, most iPhones sold in the U.S. will be made in India.
In February 2025, Apple announced a commitment to invest over $500 billion in the U.S. over the next four years, aimed at strengthening domestic manufacturing and advancing semiconductor production.
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Site: Zero HedgeNodule Found In Biden's Prostate During Routine ExamTyler Durden Tue, 05/13/2025 - 16:20
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,
A small nodule was found in former President Joe Biden’s prostate during an exam, a spokesperson told news outlets on May 13.
“In a routine physical exam, a small nodule was found in the prostate, which necessitated further evaluation,” the Biden spokesperson said.
It’s not clear whether the additional evaluation has already taken place and, if it has, what it showed.
A nodule could indicate the presence of prostate cancer.
Out of every 100 men in America, about 13 will suffer from prostate cancer during their lifetime, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Early treatment can eliminate the cancer, which is fatal in a minority of cases.
The most common risk factor is age. Biden is 82.
Biden wrote in an Aug. 20, 2024, proclamation during National Prostate Cancer Awareness Month that “we mourn all the courageous men we have tragically lost too soon to prostate cancer” and “we honor the extraordinary resilience of those currently living with and surviving this disease.”
Biden left office in January after a single term. He initially launched a reelection bid, but later dropped out under pressure from some fellow Democrats due to his advanced age. President Donald Trump, 78, beat former Vice President Kamala Harris, 60, in the 2024 election.
Dr. Kevin O‘Connor, Biden’s physician, reported in 2023 that Biden had a cancerous lesion removed from his chest. The area around the biopsy site was treated, O’Connor said, and no further treatment was required.
“The site of the biopsy has healed nicely and the President will continue dermatologic surveillance as part of his ongoing comprehensive healthcare,” he wrote at the time.
O'Connor also said in 2019 that Biden had a polyp removed from his colon, describing the polyp as “potentially pre-cancerous.”
One of Biden’s sons, Beau, died in 2015 from brain cancer.
Ahead of the election in 2024, O'Connor said that an examination showed that Biden was healthy and active.
Biden “remains fit to successfully execute the duties of the Presidency, to include those as Chief Executive, Head of State and Commander in Chief,” O'Connor wrote in a summary of the exam.
In his first interview since Trump was sworn in, Biden said recently that he did not have any cognitive issues and that he understands the concerns about his age.
“I get it,” Biden said. “I understand the concern. I really do. But the point of the matter is that I would offer specific evidence, if we had time, [of] exactly what I got done when I supposedly lost my cognitive capability.”
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Site: Zero HedgeBitcoin Treasury Exposure Goes Mainstream As Coinbase Soars On Joining The S&P 500Tyler Durden Tue, 05/13/2025 - 15:52
On May 19, 2025, Coinbase will officially join the S&P 500 - widely regarded as the most trusted, most tracked equity index in the world. With over $5 trillion in assets benchmarked to it, the S&P 500 isn’t just a measure of corporate strength - it’s a gravitational center of global capital allocation.
And starting next week, it will include a Bitcoin treasury company.
Coinbase currently holds 9,267 BTC on its balance sheet, valued at $963.8 million at today’s price of $104,000 per Bitcoin, making it the 9th largest public corporate Bitcoin holder globally.
As Nick Ward reports for BitcoinMagazine.com, this marks a quiet turning point for Bitcoin in capital markets - one that reframes the treasury conversation and reshapes how companies think about index eligibility, institutional flows, and balance sheet strategy.
The Most Passive Flows in Finance Just Found Bitcoin
Coinbase’s addition to the index means something profound: millions of investors will soon have indirect exposure to Bitcoin—and they didn’t choose it.
Because the S&P 500 is tracked by passive strategies, funds and institutions must purchase Coinbase stock in proportion to its index weight. If Coinbase is assigned even a 0.20% weighting, that implies more than $10 billion in net inflows from index-tracking vehicles.
This is not speculative capital. This is mandatory exposure—capital governed by rules, not conviction.
And for the first time, those rules lead directly to Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Treasuries Are Now Index-Eligible
For years, Bitcoin on the corporate balance sheet was treated as a novelty—or worse, a liability. But Coinbase’s inclusion signals something different: Bitcoin exposure is now compatible with the highest standards of institutional eligibility.
It’s a powerful validation for public companies already holding Bitcoin—and a strategic consideration for those that aren’t. Index inclusion is not reserved for fiat-only treasuries. Coinbase’s addition confirms that sound operations and a Bitcoin-aligned balance sheet are not mutually exclusive.
In fact, they may now be complementary.
Strategy May Be Next to Join The S&P 500
Coinbase may be the first S&P 500 company with a Bitcoin treasury—but it likely won’t be the last.
Strategy ($MSTR), formerly MicroStrategy, is widely viewed as the next potential candidate. The company meets many of the S&P 500’s baseline criteria:
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It is U.S.-based and publicly listed on the Nasdaq.
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It has sufficient free float and market capitalization.
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Its last four quarters of GAAP earnings are positive.
And perhaps most notably: Strategy is the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in the world—by far.
As of today, it holds 568,840 BTC, currently worth $59.16 billion.
Its balance sheet is no longer just Bitcoin-heavy - it is Bitcoin-native. If admitted, Strategy would represent an even deeper exposure to Bitcoin inside the world’s most influential index.
This matters. Because it signals that Bitcoin is becoming a foundational component of corporate capital formation—not an outlier.
From Signal to Strategy: A New Corporate Playbook
Coinbase’s entry - and Strategy’s potential follow-on - reinforces an emerging thesis: a Bitcoin treasury can enhance a company’s capital profile—not detract from it.
Here’s why:
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Visibility: Index inclusion provides perpetual exposure to new capital.
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Flows: Passive funds are forced buyers—providing liquidity and price support.
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Perception: Bitcoin is no longer a reputational liability—it’s becoming a marker of long-term vision and resilience.
In this context, treasury strategy becomes a capital markets strategy. Holding Bitcoin isn’t just about hedging inflation or diversifying reserves—it’s about aligning your company with where capital is flowing.
BFC Perspective: The Bridge Has Been Crossed
From a Bitcoin For Corporations standpoint, this is not just news—it’s a case study in what institutional acceptance looks like.
Coinbase has:
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Navigated the public markets as a Bitcoin-native company,
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Maintained a material Bitcoin treasury position, and
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Demonstrated that such positioning is not a barrier to index inclusion—it can be a feature.
And Strategy, with its commanding treasury and growing influence, may soon follow—cementing Bitcoin’s place at the core of U.S. corporate indices.
This should embolden public companies and pre-IPO candidates alike. It’s proof that Bitcoin alignment doesn’t isolate you from the traditional system—it can embed you deeper into it.
This is the BFC thesis in action: Bitcoin-native capital structures are compatible with institutional legitimacy.
What Comes Next: Bitcoin Is Entering the Core Portfolio
With Coinbase’s S&P 500 inclusion and Strategy potentially next, the implications are clear:
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Bitcoin is no longer confined to speculative portfolios.
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Bitcoin treasuries are now appearing in default asset allocations.
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The passive indexing era is now passively onboarding Bitcoin—whether the end investor realizes it or not.
For CFOs and capital allocators, the takeaway is simple: Bitcoin on the balance sheet is no longer a bet - it’s a bridge. To the index. To the allocators. To the long game.
With Coinbase joining the S&P 500, Bitcoin exposure is entering the core of institutional portfolios—not through a financial product, but via a public company’s balance sheet. As Strategy positions to follow, this marks a broader shift: Bitcoin treasury strategy is becoming part of the mainstream capital structure.
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Site: southern orders
I just discovered that the last public Mass presided over by Pope Francis was the Jubilee Year Mass for the Armed Forces, Police and Security Personnel on February 9, 2025. The main celebrant, though, and hold on, was Pope Leo XIV, aka, Robert Cardinal Prevost.I had a clairvoyant experience when I watched that Mass. It was cold outside at St. Peter’s Square and a bit windy. I thought to myself that the pope did not look well. I wondered if he had a death wish being out there in the cold.
The next day, Pope Francis was admitted to the hospital and thus continued his journey to death and new life.
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Site: Zero Hedge"A Complete Surrender" - Germany Stops Spying On AfD Party After US PressureTyler Durden Tue, 05/13/2025 - 12:45
Germany’s domestic spy agency has suspended authoritarian surveillance methods of the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, and U.S. pressure may have played a role.
The German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), the country’s powerful domestic spy agency, had labeled the AfD a “confirmed far-right organization” before suspending this designation last week. The main reason presented was that the AfD is appealing the designation in court and the agency would wait until this appeal is concluded to decide whether to keep the designation.
However, Germany’s ally, the United States, immediately criticized the designation in some of the harshest language possible, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio calling it “tyranny in disguise.” That was not all, though. U.S. Senator Tom Cotton, chairman of the powerful U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee, then asked Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (DNI) to suspend intelligence cooperation between the United States and Germany.
According to Cotton, the German authorities’ politically motivated surveillance activities resemble methods used by dictatorships that are unbecoming of a democratic ally.
“Rather than trying to undermine the AfD using the tools of authoritarian states, Germany’s incoming government might be better advised to consider why the AfD continues to gain electoral ground,” he wrote.
I asked @DNIGabbard to ensure that no American intelligence agencies cooperate with German authorities involved in surveiling domestic political opponents.
— Tom Cotton (@SenTomCotton) May 7, 2025
These police state tactics are more suited for Russia or Communist China, not Western Europe’s largest country.…This would have represented a drastic break between the two allies and even a threat to Germany’s national security, which raised the stakes in Germany’s authoritarian move to stifle the political opposition. Currently, the AfD is the largest opposition party in the country and for the first time ever, polled in first place last month.
The developments have also caused a major stir in Germany. Alice Weidel, co-chair of the AfD, said American pressure was behind the BfV’s withdrawal of its designation label on the AfD. In addition, Joachim Steinhöfel, a lawyer defending freedom of speech, told NIUS that the move by the BfV is “a complete surrender by the German domestic intelligence service.” He also noted that U.S. influence was vital.
“We also have to thank the Americans for exerting massive pressure,” he added.
Germany often relies on external partners to spy on its own citizens, as Germany features very strict privacy laws. The NSA is thought to be especially active watching Germans. As a result, any U.S. withdrawal from intelligence sharing could have been disastrous for Germany.
The temporary removal of the designation was warmly welcomed by the AfD, as it gives the party breathing room. For one, a vote on the ban of the party has little chance of moving forward without the designation. Second, the designation offered the BfV the legal means to surveil the entire party and its membership without a warrant, including reading emails and chats, as well as flood the party with informants.
"I think it's really too late for a ban. The AfD is already too strong."
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) March 3, 2025
Despite ongoing fears of an AfD ban, @Dieter_Stein, the EIC of the influential @Junge_Freiheit, says it would be "ludicrous."
In fact, he predicts an end to the firewall against the AfD within 1-2 years. pic.twitter.com/We7hIQZrjSNow, German intelligence is being forced to rethink its surveillance policy as political divisions grow. However, if the appeal court agrees with the BfV that the AfD can be labeled right-wing extremist, the same issue may rear its head again. It is unclear how long this appeals process will take, whether months or even years; however, there is a growing chorus from Germany’s left, as well as the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), to ban the entire AfD party.
If that happens, tensions between the U.S. and Germany could soar to new heights.
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Site: Zero HedgeTrump Not Going To Istanbul, As Kremlin Downplays 'Direct' Ukraine Peace TalksTyler Durden Tue, 05/13/2025 - 11:45
The Kremlin on Tuesday affirmed that "the Russian side continues to prepare for the negotiations that are scheduled to take place on Thursday." This after on Sunday Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to resume direct negotiations with Kiev, and proposed the Istanbul talks.
Ukrainian President Zelensky then made a performative gesture - likely more meant to prove to the White House that he's 'willing' - saying he's ready to fly to Istanbul in person and urged Putin to do the same.
Putin spokesman Dimitry Peskov when grilled by reporters on Tuesday downplayed the whole event, describing that direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul later this week are merely "still possible".
As for revealing the line-up for the Russian delegation, and who is expected lead, Peskov said "we will announce it as soon as the president [Putin] deems it necessary."
Despite some sensational recent headlines and statements, one thing we can be sure will not happen is President Putin's personal presence. And per the latest from Reuters, President Trump is not going to be there in Turkey either (after on Monday he actually floated the possibility):
- KELLOGG, WITKOFF ARE HEADING TO ISTANBUL THIS WEEK: REUTERS
- FORMAT OF TALKS IN TURKEY WITH KELLOGG, WITKOFF UNCLEAR: REUTERS
"All of us in Ukraine would appreciate it if President Trump could be there with us at this meeting in Turkey. This is the right idea. We can change a lot," Zelensky had said.
And Trump had responded by saying he was "thinking about actually flying over" – which would have to happen immediately on the heels of his big Gulf visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE.
Zelensky has meanwhile insisted that any talks should be preceded by the start of a 30-day ceasefire – which Washington appears to be backing, but which the Kremlin has already rejected.
Really, all the talk of pushing to get Putin in Istanbul to negotiate in person was about generating mainstream media headlines like the following:
Moscow worries that such a lengthy pause in fighting would only be used by Ukrainian forces to rearm and regroup along the front lines, at a moment they are exhausted and steadily losing ground.
Peskov told reporters further, "[Western] Europe is, after all, entirely on Ukraine’s side. It cannot claim to have an unbiased approach… Its approach is not balanced, it is rather pro-war, aimed at continuing the fighting, which is in sharp contrast to the approach demonstrated, for example, by Moscow or Washington," according to Russian media.
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Site: Zero HedgeThe Merch-Can-'Til-ListsTyler Durden Tue, 05/13/2025 - 11:25
By Michael Every of Rabobank
The Merch-Can-'Til-Lists
Equity markets soared, as did bond yields and the US dollar, while gold and Bitcoin dropped following the US and China taking down their tariffs by 115 percentage points to 30% for the US (on top of legacy 25% Trump 1/Biden tariffs on 2/3rds of Chinese goods and 25% sectoral tariffs) and to 10% for China for 90 days.
Some say President Trump folded, “because markets.” Or “because neo-mercantilism” as there is nothing market-like in China’s dominance of the production and the staggering trade surpluses it runs. Yet there’s certainly dotted lines being drawn on things to show where folds could go.
On the other hand, markets soared despite tariffs that were unthinkable six months ago. Moreover, Trump claimed China has agreed to remove all non-tariff barriers -- like massive direct and indirect state subsidies and infrastructure -- and underlined that tariffs can go back up again, if not to 145%, if a deal isn’t done by 10 August.
Yet trade partners just saw pushing back at the US can work: why rush to sign a deal like the UK’s --which aims to freeze China out of supply chains-- to then see the US say it doesn’t want to decouple from Beijing, or only in key sectors? That suggests the White House is going to have to breathe fire at someone to make their point. The candidate who fits that bill best might be the EU --if Japan, South Korea, or Canada don’t get there first-- and now the US will be forcing its prescription drug prices down by executive order, with parties like Europe facing higher prices as a result, there are even more issues to clash over. In short, the trade war isn’t over.
At the meta level, we just published a report on neo-mercantilist ideology, which includes both China and Trumpism. Markets are caught between ‘Merch-can-‘til-Lists’, as China cementing itself into supply chains and de-risking from the West remains its grand macro strategy, and acting against it is the US equivalent. Indeed, markets cheering the victory of a non-market economy over a market-driven one, because the latter was mirroring the former, fail to see what’s happening.
The Financial Times reports US Treasury Secretary Bessent secretly met China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an in a basement after the IMF meeting three weeks ago: recall laughter at the US claiming to have made contact with China? Apologise if you were one of them.
Chinese Delegation Spotted Entering Treasury Department, Demands Photos Be Deleted: Report https://t.co/CRh07l2K1Z
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 25, 2025Oren Cass, also in the FT, underlines liberal neo-mercantilists think the US needs tariffs to push back against state-backed champions supported by illiberal neo-mercantilists: “Perhaps the free-traders are betting on the latter, and would abandon American-style capitalism altogether before allowing so blasphemous a word as “protection” to pass their lips. What they cannot have, in the modern world, no matter how ideal in theory, is free trade and a free market at the same time.” Echoing @izakaminska, he says if the US wins this trade war, we might get free and fair trade in places; and if it loses, we won’t get it anywhere. That markets either don’t see this or don’t care, “because cheap stuff/asset prices” is worth thinking about. A lot.
At the macro level China is accelerating efforts to strip foreign firms from its supply chains. US bookings for Chinese cargo just leaped 35% and firms will surge inventory; but all will be looking for alternative supply to ensure there’s no repeat of the recent de facto embargo. Taiwan’s president just proposed a global “non-Red” supply chain ex-China: but has he looked at his own recently?
Our ocean freight bookings from China to US increased 35% in the first day since the trade deal. A big backlog is looming, soon the ships will be sold out.
— Ryan Petersen (@typesfast) May 12, 2025In short, a 90-day trade ceasefire is likely to restock/rearm and prepare for round 2: just like the Russia-Ukraine version will be.
On which note, Trump says he may join the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks to be held Thursday in Istanbul…if he’s wanted there more than he is between India and Pakistan, where both sides have claimed victory in their recent military clashes, but the former has clearly set new rules of engagement and things remain tense.
Trump is in Riyadh today. Rumors are he may meet Syria’s ex-Islamist president, whom the US designates a terrorist, and who’s reportedly offering to build a Trump Tower in Damascus - if tall enough, it might be visible from the outer suburbs where government attacks against ethnic minorities are taking place. What other headline-grabbing moves will be made, with what market impact? One thing is for sure: it will be all about geopolitics, realpolitik, and fossil fuels rather than the ‘Liberal World Order’ (LWO) and all things green.
Nearby, the New York Times explains ‘Why Trump Suddenly Declared Victory Over the Houthi Militia’, claiming the Pentagon spent $1bn in 30 days, lost two F-18A fighter jets and seven $30m drones, almost shot down an F-35, and used so many precision munitions it was worrying contingency planners, with CENTCOM’s metric of success being “bombs dropped.” This is an institutional mindset that assumes infinite supply chains and budget deficit and debt limits as if we were still had vintage LWO QE, negative rates, and either total US integration with the Chinese economy or a totally different US economy. The fact we have none of them --and that the US couldn’t defeat the modern equivalent of the Barbary Pirates, whom the infinitely less powerful early 19th-century US could-- should worry markets vastly more than it seems to be doing.
As another indicator of the shift away from the LWO, the UK Labour Party’s PM Starmer yesterday stated mass immigration has failed economically and politically, with declining GDP per capita, lower productivity, and a greater net strain on state finances, while threatening to make Britain “an island of strangers.” This obviously copies rhetoric from the anti-immigration Reform Party now leading the opinion polls. However, the rules and legislation Starmer is proposing will only slow the pace of British net immigration to a still-high level while infuriating left-wing voters, his own MPs, and UK industries from care homes to universities. Meanwhile, counter-terror police are investigating three potential cases of arson linked to Starmer: at his London home, which is let out; another property linked to him; and on in his old car.
Simultaneously, UK pension funds are to unlock up to £50bn of investments, with half reserved for UK firms, under a new “Mansion House accord” with the government. Expect to see a lot more of this “what is GDP *for*?” state leaning on private capital ahead: as our report on neo-mercantilism shows, it’s as much a part of that ideology as tariffs.
There’s less sign of that in the US budget bill emerging from Congress, however, or at least how to pay for it. So far, it seems to be rejecting higher taxes for the wealthy and removing the carried interest loophole “because lobbyists”, while adding no tax on tips and overtime and social security, plus more defense spending, meaning around $1.5 - 2 trillion on top of US fiscal deficits over the next decade.
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Site: Zero HedgeMicrosoft Reportedly Slashing 3% Of Global WorkforceTyler Durden Tue, 05/13/2025 - 11:05
A new report hit the wires late Tuesday morning in New York, revealing that Microsoft plans to implement "organizational changes" impacting about 3% of its global workforce, spanning all levels, teams, and regions.
"We continue to implement organizational changes necessary to best position the company for success in a dynamic marketplace," a Microsoft spokesperson told CNBC in a statement.
The Microsoft spokesperson did not specify the number of job cuts or the timing of the changes.
Data from Bloomberg shows Microsoft employed about 228,000 employees worldwide at the end of 2024, implying total cuts could top 7,000.
The report is puzzling since Microsoft reported better-than-expected third-quarter results, which ended on March 31, driven by its Azure cloud business, and issued strong guidance.
MSFT beat on everything...
However, in the first three months of 2025, Microsoft spent $21.4 billion on Capital expenditures, including assets acquired under finance leases, down more than $1 billion from the previous quarter (and below the $22.56 billion consensus).
The spokesperson told CNBC that the latest round of proposed job cuts is unrelated to performance.
In early 2023, Microsoft laid off 10,000 employees. Total workforce growth has stalled since 2022 after exploding every year since 2016.
Meanwhile, MSFT shares are back at record highs ....
Several reports have suggested that Microsoft is scaling back on data center projects, yet the big tech firm has rejected those reports.
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Site: Zero HedgeUnitedHealth Group Shares Plunge On Abrupt CEO Exit, Suspends 2025 OutlookTyler Durden Tue, 05/13/2025 - 08:55
Shares of UnitedHealth Group tumbled in premarket trading after the insurer announced the sudden resignation of CEO Andrew Witty and the suspension of its 2025 financial outlook.
UnitedHealth Group appointed Stephen Hemsley, its board chairman and former CEO (2006-2017), as its new CEO, replacing Andrew Witty, who stepped down for personal reasons.
"We are grateful for Andrew's stewardship of UnitedHealth Group, especially during some of the most challenging times any company has ever faced," Hemsley said, adding, "The Board and I have greatly valued his leadership and compassion as chief executive and as a director and wish him and his family the best."
The major health insurer also suspended its 2025 financial outlook, citing higher-than-expected medical expenditures:
Additionally, the company suspended its 2025 outlook as care activity continued to accelerate while also broadening to more types of benefit offerings than seen in the first quarter, and the medical costs of many Medicare Advantage beneficiaries new to UnitedHealthcare remained higher than expected.
In April, UnitedHealth Group reported weaker-than-expected Q1 results and issued a significant downward revision to its full-year guidance, citing higher-than-expected Medicare needs. This was the insurer's first earnings miss in over a decade.
UnitedHealth Group expects to return to growth in 2026...
"UnitedHealth Group has tremendous opportunities to grow as we continue to help improve health care and to perform to our potential — and, in so doing, return to our long-term growth objective of 13 to 16 percent," the new CEO said.
As of Monday's close, UnitedHealth Group shares are locked in a bear market, down 25% for the year. News of the sudden CEO resignation and suspended outlook pushed the stock down another 10% in premarket trading—sending shares to a four-year low if losses hold into the cash session.
Just to clarify: UnitedHealthcare is the health benefits business of UnitedHealth Group.
In premarket trading, the shares of peers Elevance Health, CVS Health, and Humana all fell between 2 and 4%. Cigna and Centene fell between 1% and 2%.
Here are the first takes on the news via Wall Street banks (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Mizuho, Ann Hynes (outperform)
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Says the suspension of the guidance is surprising
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"Given the recent challenges the company has faced, a change in management was expected"
Leerink Partners, Whit Mayo (outperform)
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Says the suspension of the 2025 guide due to a continuation of excessively high care activity "is more concerning and likely to weigh considerably on forward forecasts and the valuation"
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Adds that the CEO transition to former head Stephen Hemsley "doesn't strike us terribly surprising in light of recent business developments and deterioration in investor trust"
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"Perhaps the suspended guide is simply for Mr. Hemsley to settle into the role, figure out trend, and begin the process of reestablishing some credibility with the investor community"
Bloomberg Intelligence, Glen Losev
- Says the outlook suspension is "is puzzling but is likely a part of a broader effort to turn the page"
RBC Capital Markets, Ben Hendrix (neutral)
- "While UNH cites personal reasons for Witty's departure, we are not overly surprised to see a change in guard amid weaker Medicare Advantage performance and critical press headlines emerging late last year"
On Monday, President Trump pushed ahead with his pledge to eliminate drug industry middlemen, which sent shares of Cigna, CVS Health, and UNH lower.
The new NPC narrative pic.twitter.com/NadxAuiYj5
— Planet Of Memes (@PlanetOfMemes) May 12, 2025Rough times for the healthcare industry...
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Site: Zero HedgeDespite Mainstream Panic, US Consumer Price Inflation Tumbles To Lowest In Over 4 YearsTyler Durden Tue, 05/13/2025 - 08:40
While today's CPI will be far less relevant now that the entire macro picture has been reset after this weekend's trade war truce - which cut tariffs between US and China by 115% for 90 days...
...thus making any pre/post CPI number comparisons meaningless apples to oranges, the machines will certainly be reacting to what Bloomberg prints in the flashing red headline at 8:30am ET.
As we detailed here, higher-than expected inflation data is likely to accelerate the increase in yields spurred by the easing in trade tensions with China.
As Bloomberg's Alyce Andres notes, survey data ahead of Tuesday’s April CPI report sends a clear message that firms passed rising tariff-linked costs on to consumers.
Higher Prices
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ISM Manufacturing prices expanded to 69.8, the highest since June 2022.
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ISM Services ticked up to 65.1 in April, the highest since January 2023.
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S&P Global US Manufacturing firms increased their output prices by the greatest degree since early 2023.
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S&P Global US Services prices advanced.
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Richmond Fed manufacturing showed prices received rose to 2.65 from 2.34 in March.
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New York Fed manufacturing prices received edged up to 28.7 from 22.4 in March.
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Philadelphia Fed manufacturing report showed prices received gained to 30.7 compared to 29.8 in March.
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Kansas City Fed manufacturing prices received surged to 29, up from 15 in March.
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Kansas City Fed non-manufacturing showed selling prices rose in April.
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Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook report showed prices received for finished goods advanced to 14.9, up from 6.3 in March.
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Dallas Fed services selling prices rose to 8.4 from 5.2 in the prior month.
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Chicago PMI showed prices expanded at a faster pace in April.
Lower Prices:
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New York Fed services report showed prices received declined to 26.0 from 28.7 in March.
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Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing data reflected a plunge in prices received to -0.1 from 8.4 in in the prior month.
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Richmond Services prices received nudged down to 3.03 compared to 3.68 in March.
Optically, inflation indicators (hard, not soft survey) have notably deflated in the last month...
Source: Bloomberg
So, what did we get - did the 'soft' survey data once again completely decouple from the reality of 'hard' actual data?
SHOCKER - Despite the panic from the establishment, headline CPI disappointed, rising 0.2% MoM (below the +0.3% exp), pulling the headline down to +2.3% YoY (below the 2.4% exp) - the lowest since February 2021...
Source: Bloomberg
That's quite a difference from the Democrat-sponsored surge in UMich inflation expectations (something it appears Democrats were unable to see or fear in 2021/2022 when President Biden was printing trillions in stimmies to save his base from actually working for a living)...
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, commodity prices just inched back into inflation (+0.1% YoY) while Services inflation continues to slide...
Source: Bloomberg
Headline CPI 0.2% MoM. Here are the details:
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The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in April, accounting for more than half of the all items monthly increase.
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The energy index also increased over the month, rising 0.7 percent as increases in the natural gas index and the electricity index more than offset a decline in the gasoline index.
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The index for food, in contrast, fell 0.1 percent in April as the food at home index decreased 0.4 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month.
But Core Services rose MoM...
Source: Bloomberg
Egg prices - so much in focus during Trump's first few weeks after Biden's shitshow - plunged 12.7% MoM... the biggest MoM drop since March 1984...
Source: Bloomberg
Core CPI also rose 0.2% MoM (below the 0.3% exp) leaving it up 2.8% YoY as expected (lowest since April 2021)...
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Core CPI +0.2% MoM. Indexes that increased over the month include household furnishings and operations, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, education, and personal care. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, communication, and apparel were among the major indexes that decreased in April. Here are the details:
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The shelter index increased 0.3 percent over the month.
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The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.4 percent in April and the index for rent increased 0.3 percent.
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The lodging away from home index fell 0.1 percent in April.
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Shelter inflation 0.34% MoM, and 3.99% YoY, unch from a month ago and the lowest since Nov 2021
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Rent inflation 0.27% MoM, and 3.98% YoY, down from 3.99% in March and the lowest since Jan 2022
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-
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The index for household furnishings and operations increased 1.0 percent in April, after being unchanged in March.
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The motor vehicle insurance index rose 0.6 percent in April.
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The index for education increased 0.1 percent over the month, as did the index for personal care.
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In contrast, the airline fares index fell 2.8 percent in April, after declining 5.3 percent in March.
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The index for used cars and trucks fell 0.5 percent over the month, and the indexes for communication and apparel also declined.
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The new vehicles index and the recreation index were unchanged in April.
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The medical care index increased 0.5 percent over the month.
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The index for hospital services increased 0.6 percent in April and the index for physicians’ services rose 0.3 percent over the month.
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The prescription drugs index rose 0.4 percent in April.
And drilling down even more, the so-called SuperCore CPI (Services Ex Shelter) dropped to +3.01% YoY - the lowest since Dec 2021...
Source: Bloomberg
Recreation Services and Education costs are deflating...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as Goldman noted ahead of the print, whatever we do learn about tariff-related inflation today lags the rapidly-changing policy reality... so choose the size of the salt crystal to take as you react to the algos initial reaction to this data.
Is the inevitable trajectory of CPI higher given the recent surge in M2...
Source: Bloomberg
Real average weekly earnings rose 1.7% YoY - the best growth in wages since March 2021...
Source: Bloomberg
Brace for an avalanche of this statement repeated ad nauseum all day from establishment economists - "...we're sure the inflation from tariffs will hit next month..."
The new narrative: "lack of tariff inflation is transitory"
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Site: Zero HedgeFutures Dip As Torrid Squeeze Pauses Ahead Of CPI ReportTyler Durden Tue, 05/13/2025 - 08:24
US equity futures are modestly lower ahead of today's CPI report, but well off session lows, as markets take a slight pause following yesterday’s surge and as trade war truce euphoria gives way to lingering concerns about inflation and economic growth. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.2% with Mag7 and Semis names weaker pre-mkt, pulling the index lower. UnitedHealth Group sank 10% in pre-market trading after suspending its 2025 outlook. In the latest trade war news, US reduced the tariff on ‘de minimis’ shipments from China, per Reuters, from 120% to 54%, while China reversed its ban on Boeing jets. Appetite for safer assets picked up again, with Treasury yields falling and gold prices on the rise. The dollar slipped after gaining more than 1.4% yesterday, its strongest day since Nov 6, 2024, the day after the election. Today’s macro data focus is on CPI where the YoY numbers are expected to remain flat MoM despite an acceleration in the MoM prints. Earnings prints are not expected to be market moving today.
In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks were mostly lower with the exception of NVDA (Tesla -0.3%, Meta Platforms -0.2%, Microsoft -0.3%, Apple -0.3%, Alphabet -0.2%, Amazon +0.02%, Nvidia +0.2%). Coinbase Global (COIN) climbs 9% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the company will join the S&P 500 Index before trading opens May 19. UnitedHealth Group shares drop 10% after the health insurer suspended its 2025 outlook and said CEO Andrew Witty is stepping down for personal reasons, effective immediately. Here are some more notable premarket movers:
- 3D Systems (DDD) sinks 22% after the 3D-printer maker reported products revenue for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
- Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) climbs 6% after the drug developer reported earnings per share for the second quarter that was ahead of Wall Street’s expectations.
- Enphase Energy (ENPH) drops 5% after BMO cut its recommendation on the solar energy equipment manufacturer to underperform, citing planned Federal Government tax changes as a headwind for residential solar.
- On Holding (ONON) rises 5% after the company nudged its sales growth forecast higher as demand for the Swiss sneaker maker’s high-priced footwear remained strong despite economic uncertainty.
- Pinterest (PINS) declines 2% after the Information reported Google may unveil next week a feature that shows images designed to give people ideas for fashion and other types of designs, citing a person familiar with the matter
- Rigetti Computing Inc. (RGTI) tumbles 11% postmarket after the quantum computing firm’s 1Q revenue missed expectations.
- Other quantum computing stocks are down: Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) -3%, D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) -3%
The powerful surge in stocks following the US-China trade truce, which sent the S&P 3.3% higher and erasing all post-Liberation day losses, caught out bearish investors who are now left chasing the rally, as well as hedge funds that were mostly short US equities, according to strategists. Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey — conducted before the US-China trade breakthrough — is “bearish enough to suggest pain trade modestly higher,” Michael Hartnett said. BBVA strategists said that hedge funds’ net leverage is near five-year lows and mostly short US equities, adding to the squeeze.
“Yesterday’s move was warranted,” said Andrea Gabellone, analyst at KBC Securities. “But I need more to get more fundamentally constructive.”
Still, Tuesday’s slight pullback suggests trade and economic concerns are lingering, despite the US-China truce. The dollar is a bit weaker, and gold is higher, as investors await April’s CPI number for a sense of whether Trump’s tariff back-and-forth is fueling inflation. Boeing will be in focus after China removed a ban on airlines taking delivery of its planes.
“The challenges are not over,” said Frederique Carrier, investment strategy head at RBC Wealth Management. “The de-escalation was a lot stronger than even the best hopes, but you have to remember that the US economy still faces average effective tariffs of more than 13%.”
There’s also plenty from strategists to digest. Goldman’s David Kostin raised his 12-month target for the S&P 500 to 6,500 from 6,200, implying a gain of about 11%. But he’s still somewhat cautious, seeing an “impending slowdown in economic and earnings growth.” Meanwhile, the market rebound prompted Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, to cut US stocks to neutral from attractive, saying the risk-reward was now more balanced. Uncertainty is still high, he wrote in a note on Tuesday, and investors will focus on whether a lasting trade agreement can be forged between the two countries.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises 0.2%. Health care stocks are among the biggest gainers, with Bayer shares rising 8% after earnings beat expectations. Insurance names provide a drag after disappointing numbers from Munich Re. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:
- Renewable energy stocks rally in Europe on Tuesday after US House Republicans proposed a phase-out of incentives to develop clean-energy projects that was better than feared, according to analysts
- Bayer shares jump as much as 10%, the most since August, after the German conglomerate reported better-than-expected earnings and sales for the first quarter
- Grifols gains as much as 6.5% after the the Spanish blood-plasma company delivers results above expectations in the first quarter and maintains its full-year guidance
- Entain rises as much as 6.3% in London after UBS raised its recommendation to buy, saying the bookmaker has been steadily progressing operationally over the past year, yet the shares have underperformed the sector
- RS Group rises as much as 7.5% as BofA Global Research raises its recommendation on the electronics distributor to buy due to an automation recovery and cost savings that support margins
- Munich Re falls as much as 5.4% after first-quarter profit slumped because of claims linked to the Los Angeles wildfires and prices for renewals declined
- Hannover Re shares declined 3.8%, the second-worst performer on the Stoxx 600 Insurance Index, after the German reinsurer reported what JPMorgan says are “not a particularly pretty set of numbers”
- DCC shares drop as much as 4.9%, the biggest fallers in the FTSE 100 Index, after the conglomerate’s earnings fell short of expectations, with analysts pointing to weakness in its technology business due to weak demand
- GEA Group drops as much as as 3.6% following a double-downgrade to underperform from buy at BofA, which cites a full valuation and weaker food and beverage capex cycle in the firm’s major markets
- Fraport shares fall as much as 4.7%, the most in five weeks. Higher costs in Aviation and a one-off impact from security drove a miss on Ebitda in the first quarter for the operator of Frankfurt Airport
- Alfen slumps as much as 26%, the most since June 2024, after the energy equipment company warned that its full-year revenue is likely to come in at the lower end of the current guidance range
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks eked out gains, with sentiment getting a boost after the world’s two largest economies agreed to a trade truce. Meanwhile, shares in Hong Kong fell after a rally on Monday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped as much as 1%, before trimming its gains to 0.2%. TSMC, Recruit and Toyota were major contributors to the gauge’s gains. Japanese shares were among the biggest gainers in the region, with the Topix index posting its longest winning streak in nearly 16 years. Benchmarks also advanced in Taiwan and Malaysia. Still, shares fell in Hong Kong as the trade agreement is seen as reducing Beijing’s need to announce any large stimulus. Stocks in mainland China pared early gains to trade little changed. Meanwhile, gauges in India also fell as the tech sector’s rally cooled.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped as much as 0.3% as positioning in the options market continued to lean against the currency. Kristoffer Kjaer Lomholt, head of FX and corporate research at Danske Bank A/S, said the greenback’s 1% surge on Monday was “all about the unwind of the post-Liberation day trades” even though unlike other assets which have recovered all losses since Liberation Day, the dollar remains the only major asset class that is decidedly lower. The Swiss franc, Swedish krona and Aussie dollar are the best performing G-10 currencies. The Canadian dollar lags with a 0.1% fall against the greenback.
Treasuries also reversed some of the Monday moves. The policy-sensitive US two-year yield fell three basis points after surging 12 basis points amid speculation the tariff truce would bolster the world’s biggest economy. 10-year yields dropped 3 bps to 4.45% and again reversing some of Monday’s move. Bunds fall, with German 10-year yields rising 3 bps. UK 10-year borrowing costs add 2 bps but short end yields are lower after British businesses cut jobs for a third straight month in April.
In commodities, US crude WTI futures rise 0.5% to $62.25. Spot gold has also pared some of Monday’s fall, rising $18 to around $3,254/oz.
Looking to the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the US CPI release for April. Otherwise, we also got UK unemployment for March and the German ZEW survey for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Escriva, Makhlouf and Knot, along with BoE Governor Bailey and the BoE’s Pill.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -0.2%,
- Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%,
- Russell 2000 mini -0.1%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
- DAX little changed
- CAC 40 +0.2%
- 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.45%
- VIX +0.3 points at 18.72
- Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 123
Top Overnight News
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the European Union suffers from a “collective action problem” that’s hampering trade negotiations, downplaying the possibility of a quick agreement with the US’s largest trading relationship. “I think the US and Europe may be a bit slower,” said Bessent. BBG
- The US imported a record $53bn of products used in the pharmaceuticals and medical industry in March as companies rushed to build stockpiles in case Trump hits the sector with tariffs. Imports of pharma products soared around 160% in March from the same month the previous year, and almost doubled from Feb, reaching the highest on Census Bureau records stretching back to 2002. FT
- A House Republican tax bill would raise the SALT cap to $30,000 without increasing taxes on the wealthy. It needs almost unanimous party support to pass. The plan proposes to significantly increase taxes on the richest US universities. BBG
- China removed a month-long ban on Boeing deliveries by airlines, people familiar said, after the trade-talk breakthrough with the US. Officials have started to tell local carriers and government agencies that the restrictions no longer apply. BBG
- White House Executive Order said US will cut the minimum tariff on China shipments from 120% to 54%, and a minimum flat fee of USD 100 is to remain: RTRS
- India proposed tariffs on some American goods in its first retaliation against Trump’s duties on steel and aluminum, even as trade talks continue. BBG
- British businesses cut jobs for a third straight month in April. Wage growth, excluding bonuses, slowed to 5.6% in the first quarter, while the unemployment rate ticked higher. BBG
- The U.S. Court of International Trade is hearing oral arguments Tuesday in a lawsuit challenging Trump’s use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose sweeping new tariffs last month, before suspending the highest ones on about 60 trading partners for 90 days. Politico
- U.S. new-vehicle prices surged in April, data released on Monday showed, a sign that the effects of President Donald Trump's auto-tariff measures are rippling through the car market. RTRS
- BofA Fund Manager Survey (pre-US/China trade update): Global fund managers most underweight US dollars in May since 2006 61% of fund managers see soft landing for the economy versus 37% in April; 26% see hard landing, down from 49% in April. Prior to US/China Geneva talks, fund managers saw US tariffs on China goods at 37%. "Positive US-China trade war ceasefire prevents recession/credit event": BofA
Trade/Tariffs
- White House Executive Order said US will cut the minimum tariff on China shipments from 120% to 54%, and a minimum flat fee of USD 100 is to remain.
- USTR Greer said the outcome of US-China tariffs talks was seen as pragmatic, while he added China has agreed to remove countermeasures and noted if things don't work out, China tariffs can go back up.
- Chinese President Xi said there are no winners in tariff wars and trade wars, while he added that only when various countries work together can they maintain world peace, stability and promote global development. Xi said bullying and tyranny will only isolate oneself, as well as noted that China supports Latin America and the Caribbean in expanding their influence in the multilateral arena with China willing to deepen cooperation with Latin America in infrastructure, agriculture, food, energy and minerals.
- China's Foreign Ministry, on US fentanyl tariffs, says China has repeatedly said it is a US issue. US is ignoring China's good will. Responsibility lies with the US.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent says talks with China in Geneva resulted in a mechanism to avoid escalation; can proceed from here and have a very good framework. When asked if he feels good about the progress of other deals, he responds "yes"; references Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Taiwan. Thinks the US-Europe deal may be a bit slower, cites regional divides among the EU.
- Canadian PM Carney and UK PM Starmer agreed to strengthen trade, commercial and defence ties in a phone call, according to a statement from Canada.
- China removes ban on Boeing (BA) deliveries after US trade truce, via Bloomberg.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mostly higher following the rally on Wall St owing to the US-China trade war de-escalation after both sides agreed to cut tariffs by 115ppts for an initial period of 90 days, although some of the gains were capped as the euphoria began to moderate. ASX 200 edged higher amid outperformance in tech and energy but with further advances contained by weakness in defensives and gold miners. Nikkei 225 rallied to above the 38,000 level following the cooling in US-China trade tensions but with the index off intraday highs amid some profit-taking and a slight pullback in USD/JPY, while BoJ rhetoric continued to signal future hikes if prices and the economy improved. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged despite the de-escalation in the US-China trade war which the Hong Kong benchmark already had its opportunity to react to yesterday, while questions lingered on what will happen during the 90-day reprieve as the trade deficit remains and the current 30% tariff on Chinese goods still a relatively high level.
Top Asian News
- BoJ Summary of Opinions from the April 30th-May 1st meeting stated that one member said the central bank is likely to continue raising interest rates in line with improvements in the economy and prices, while a member said the BoJ must make policy decisions without preconception as uncertainty over the outlook is very high. There was also the opinion of no change to the BoJ's rate-hike stance as real interest rates are deeply negative, but risks must be scrutinised and the BoJ has little choice but to take a wait-and-see stance until developments surrounding US trade policy stabilise to some extent. Furthermore, a member said that uncertainty surrounding economy and price outlook is high and the likelihood of achieving price goal is not as high as in the past, while it was stated that the BoJ will enter a temporary pause in rate hikes but shouldn't slide into excessive pessimism and must guide policy nimbly and flexibly.
- Nissan (7201 JT) 2024/2025 (JPY): operating profit 69.8bln (-87.7%), net -670.90bln (prev. 426.65bln), Revenue 12.63tln (prev. 12.69tln); withholds FY guidance due to tariffs, will consolidate production plants to 10 from 17. Nissan impact on Renault (RNO FP) Q1 net estimated at EUR 2.2bln loss.
- JD.com (JD/9618 HK) Q1 (USD): EPS 1.16 (exp. 1.05), Revenue 41.5bln (exp. 40.2bln); Co. notes of improving consumer sentiment.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) are mostly, but modestly firmer as markets cool a touch from the significant upside seen in the prior session. Price action this morning has been relatively rangebound, given the lack of fresh catalysts thus far. European sectors hold a slight positive bias, but with the breadth of the market fairly narrow. Basic Resources leads, followed closely by Retail and Travel & Leisure to complete the top three. US equity futures (ES -0.4%, NQ -0.5%, RTY -0.5%) are modestly in negative territory, as the complex gives back some of the prior day’s US-China induced upside. Focus this morning has been on Bloomberg reporting which suggests China is lifting its ban on Boeing (BA) deliveries after the US-China tariff pause. BlackRock (BLK) CEO said it still sees global investors overweighting the US; adds that US deficits are still an issue.
Top European News
- Barclaycard UK April Consumer Spending rose 4.5% Y/Y, which was the biggest increase since June 2023.
- ECB strategy review will largely endorse past policies, including QE, despite some policymakers’ criticisms, while the ECB is to keep reference to ‘forceful action’ when rates and inflation are low following the review, according to sources cited by Reuters.
- ECB's Makhlouf says given effects of size, scale and more persistent nature of fragmentation-induced shocks, and their impact on prices, monetary policy responses will need careful calibration.
- BoE's Chief Economist Pill says should not assume that latest MPR forecasts is a direct endorsement of market interest rate curve; worried about potential risks to inflation He does see risk of second round effects. Remain concerned that they've seen a structural change in price and wage setting within the UK. The response of monetary policy to ensure they get inflation back to target may need to be more persistent.
FX
- DXY gives back some of Monday's trade-induced gains. Desks flag the uncertainty rising from the 90-day period in which both the US and China slashed their respective retaliatory tariffs by 115 bps each. Elsewhere on the docket, the highlight will be US CPI, whereby analysts expect US headline CPI to rise +0.3% M/M in April (prev. -0.1%). DXY currently resides in a narrow 101.46-101.73 range, well within yesterday's range, with the 50 DMA today at 101.86.
- EUR is relatively stable and moving in tandem with the Dollar with little action seen on ECB commentary in which ECB's Makhlouf said given effects of size, scale and more persistent nature of fragmentation-induced shocks, and their impact on prices, monetary policy responses will need careful calibration, meanwhile, ECB's Escriva said they must be humble in assessing the current situation, and ECB's Nagel said they shouldn't overreact to individual announcements. Reuters sources overnight suggested the ECB strategy review will largely endorse past policies, including QE, despite some policymakers’ criticisms, while the ECB is to keep reference to ‘forceful action’ when rates and inflation are low following the review. On the data front, May ZEW survey for Germany saw a jump in economic sentiment but an unexpected fall in current conditions - but no real follow through to the EUR.
- Haven FX are clawing back some lost ground as markets take a breather following yesterday's US-China euphoria, and following the aforementioned punchier language from Chian this morning coupled with the accompanying uncertainty provided by the 90-day de-escalation. USD/JPY resides towards the bottom of a 147.65-148.48 range, with the 50 DMA seen at 146.27 today.
- GBP is buoyed by the softer Dollar, with FX markets gaining some composure after Monday's surge in the Buck. UK jobs data this morning did little to shift the dial, with no reaction seen post-release: overall, the labour market continues to soften but at a relatively moderate rate. GBP/USD currently trades in a 1.3166-1.3216 range, well within Monday's 1.3137-1.3299 parameter.
- Antipodeans benefit from the broadly softer Dollar despite a more cautious risk tone across the markets.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1991 vs exp. 7.2188 (Prev. 7.2066).
Fixed Income
- USTs are slightly firmer with the risk tone tepid and fixed easing from the lows seen on Monday as the dust settles following tariff announcements between the US and China. At the top-end of a 110-02 to 110-08 band. Attention for USTs is firmly on the April CPI print. A release that is perhaps slightly less pertinent given the recent US-China progress; however, it will still be scrutinised for insight into the Fed’s deliberations. After the data we have remarks from President Trump at 15:00BST in the Middle East. Reports in Axios on Monday suggested he was aiming to return with over a USD 1tln worth of deals.
- Bunds are a touch softer and, in contrast to USTs, has eked out a marginal new WTD trough at 129.43. However, despite this, the narrative is much the same as the benchmark consolidates from Monday’s marked sell off and await fresh insight on EU-US talks. On that, US Treasury Secretary Bessent was out this morning with the same type of language on the EU, describing the progress as being a little slower. On the data front, May ZEW survey for Germany saw a jump in economic sentiment but an unexpected fall in current conditions - but no real follow through to Bund price action.
- Gilts are the marginal underperformer, and in a similar fashion to Bunds the benchmark has made a new WTD low at 91.51 vs 91.63 on Monday. Gapped lower by 13 ticks at the open and then slipped a bit further to the above base. An open that followed the latest UK jobs data which, in summary, showed that the labour market continues to cool but at a gradual pace with the rate of wage growth slowing but still at a level that the MPC is unlikely to regard as being consistent with the inflation target.
- Netherlands sells EUR 1.98bln vs exp. EUR 1.0-2.0bln 2.00% 2054 DSL: average yield 3.228%.
- UK sells GBP 1bln 0.625% 2045 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.19x (prev. 3.48x) & real yield 2.23% (prev. 1.732%).
- Italy sells EUR 7.5bln vs exp. EUR 6.0-7.50bln 2.65% 2028, 3.25% 2032 & 4.45% 2043 BTP.
- Germany sells EUR 3.401bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 1.70% 2027 Schatz: b/c 2.2x (prev. 1.7x), average yield 1.94% (prev. 1.67%), retention 24.42% (prev. 23.72%).
Commodities
- Crude has traded choppily, and off the highs seen following the US-China trade deal announcement. Currently WTI & Brent are higher by around USD 0.20/bbl as traders await US CPI and updates from US President Trump who is set to give some remarks at 15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT. Brent Jul'25 sat in a busy USD 64.63-65.12/bbl range for most of the European morning, but has recently climbed out of the top-end of that range to print a peak at USD 65.35/bbl.
- Precious metals are firmer across the board, with some outperformance in spot silver as the complex benefits from the softer Dollar. Spot gold is currently higher by around USD 18/oz, and trades in a USD 3,216.06-3,265.51/oz range.
- Base metals are broadly in positive territory, benefiting from the relatively softer Dollar and mostly positive risk-tone overnight. 3M LME Copper currently trades in a USD 9,488.3-9,572.45/t range.
- China crude oil supply to China set to hold steady at around 47.5mln barrels in June, via Reuters citing sources.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- US Secretary of State Rubio said the State Department is sanctioning three Iranian nationals and one Iranian entity with ties to Iran's organisation of defensive innovation and research.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov discussed with his Turkish counterpart issues related to May 15th direct talks with Ukraine.
- US State Department said Secretary of State Rubio discussed a path to peace and a ceasefire in Ukraine with French, German, Polish and Ukrainian foreign ministers as well as the EU High Representative.
- Senior Kyiv Official says Ukrainian President Zelensky will meet Russian President Putin, and not other members of the Russian delegation on Thursday in Turkey.
US Event Calendar
- 6:00 am: Apr NFIB Small Business Optimism 95.8, est. 95, prior 97.4
- 8:30 am: Apr CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.1%
- 8:30 am: Apr CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
- 8:30 am: Apr CPI YoY, est. 2.4%, prior 2.4%
- 8:30 am: Apr CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.8%
- 8:30 am: Apr CPI Index NSA, est. 320.91, prior 319.8
- 8:30 am: Apr CPI Core Index SA, est. 326.63, prior 325.66
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Good evening from the West Coast of the US. A lot of miles have been travelled for me and for markets in the last 24 hours, and as I questioned in yesterday’s CoTD (link here), will the last 6 weeks go down in the annals the same way as series 9 of Dallas back in the mid-1980s? This series was expunged from memories as a dream sequence of Pam Ewing, rendering the death of husband Bobby Ewing as just a nightmare. With both the US and China slashing their tariff rates by 115 percentage points, with the US rate on China down from 145% to 30% and China’s rate on the US falling from 125% to 10%, we’re almost back to pre-Liberation Day levels. And if you include the fact that 20pp of the 30% US levy is around fentanyl, and could surely be negotiated down with the current momentum, China is now back in the pack with regards to pure trade tariffs on other countries.
The dramatic reduction in tariffs is only a temporary one for 90 days, but as far as markets are concerned, there’s now a belief that the worst of the trade war has passed, and that the trend is now towards de-escalation. So that unleashed a phenomenal rally across multiple asset classes, with the S&P 500 (+3.26%) building on its recent run as investors priced out the chance of a downturn, with 2 and 10yr US yields up +12.0bps and +9.3bps respectively.
There’s little doubt about how positive this news is, but the US is not out of the woods yet. Our US economists had already assumed a decent amount of de-escalation into their most recent assumptions, with an effective tariff rate of 15%. So that's still not far from where we might net out given all we know after yesterday. Such an effective rate was consistent with a subdued, barely positive, level of US growth in H2. However, if the direction of travel is further tariff cuts then the risks are clearly back to the upside. For inflation, our economists suggest there is now some downside risks to our 3.6% core PCE forecast for this year. However, upside risks remain from sectoral tariffs and greater passthrough from tariffs to consumer prices in response to the broader weakening in the dollar. We maintain our view that the Fed will find it hard to ease in the near term and the first cut pencilled in for December remains the base case. See our US economists reaction to the news yesterday and how it might change their views here.
Yesterday's announcement came around 8am London time, just as European markets were opening, and there was an immediate reaction in response. To be fair, futures were already positive thanks to the weekend newsflow. But there was then a fresh leap higher as the tariff reductions were well above market expectations. Indeed, Trump himself had said on Friday that “80% Tariff on China seems right!”, and he’d been talking about a 60% rate on the campaign trail. So the fact it was only 30% was greeted with a huge sigh of relief. The reversal came with few immediate concessions by China, beyond reversing retaliatory measures imposed since Liberation Day. However, Trump said that China agreed to “suspend and remove all of its non-monetary barriers” without offering specifics.
Looking forward, the mood music around the discussions also sounded very positive, and came in at the upside of market expectations. For instance, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that both sides agreed that they “do not want a generalized decoupling”, and that “as long as there is good faith effort, engagement and constructive dialog, then we will keep moving forward”. So that sounded a long way from the rhetoric of recent weeks, when tariffs moved above 100% and there were fears of a wider trade breakdown, with China describing the US’s tariff moves as a “joke”. Later on in the day, President Trump himself said “I’ll speak to President Xi, maybe at the end of the week”, so that again kept the door open to further communications.
Those headlines led to a continued unwind of the moves since Liberation Day, with the S&P 500 surging another +3.26%, its best daily performance since the original 90-day reciprocal tariff extension was announced on April 9 and its third best day in the last 5 years. The move means the index is now +3.05% above its level on Liberation Day, and only -4.88% beneath its all-time high from mid-February, which is remarkable given everything that’s happened in that time. Moreover, the latest advance leaves the index up more than +17% in just over a month, which is a pace we haven’t seen since Q2 2020 as markets were bouncing back from the aggressive Covid slump. That was supported by a huge rally for the Magnificent 7 (+5.67%). The NASDAQ (+4.35%) is now back in bull market territory and up +22.5% from its lows. And with equities surging back, the VIX index of volatility closed beneath 20pts for the first time since March.
This move back into US assets was clear on several metrics. In particular, the dollar index (+1.44%) posted its best daily performance since November, back when investors were reacting to the news of Trump’s election victory. Moreover, the rally in US equities was much more pronounced than elsewhere, with Europe’s STOXX 600 “only” up +1.21% on the day. And US credit spreads also tightened more aggressively than their European counterparts, with US HY spreads down -38bps on the day, whereas those in Europe were down -22bps. That now leaves US HY spreads at 305bps, clearly beneath their Liberation Day level of 334bps.
With investors pricing out a recession, the announcement also saw investors dial back their rate cut expectations over the rest of the year. For instance, futures moved to price just 56bps of Fed rate cuts by the December meeting, down -9.8bps on the day, and the fewest since February. We were at 131bps at the intraday low on April 7, shortly before the initial 90-day extension. In turn, that led to a big move higher for sovereign bond yields, with the 2yr Treasury (+12.0bps to 4.01%) closing above 4% for the first time since March. Meanwhile, the 10yr yield (+9.3bps) moved up by a smaller amount to 4.47%. Those moves were similar in Europe, where yields on 10yr bunds (+8.6bps), OATs (+6.1bps) and BTPs (+6.8bps) all moved higher.
This shift was also echoed in commodity markets, where oil prices built on last week’s rebound as hopes grew for stronger global trade flows. For instance, Brent crude oil prices (+1.64%) were back up to $64.96/bbl, having closed at a 4-year low ($60.23) just a week earlier. In the meantime, gold prices (-2.66%) fell back to $3,236/oz, which came as the lower tariffs helped to reassure investors about inflationary pressures. Indeed, the 1yr US inflation swap plummeted by a huge -25.2bps on the day to 3.16%, which is the biggest daily decline since November 2022.
Looking forward, inflation will remain in the spotlight today, as we’ve got the US CPI release for April coming out. That’s the first to cover the period since Liberation Day, so it’ll be a good insight into how the tariffs are impacting consumer prices so far. However, the baseline expectations from our US economists is that the April tariffs won’t start showing up in consumer prices until June and the subsequent months. In terms of what to expect today, they forecast that headline CPI will come in at +0.26% on the month, with core CPI only a little bit higher at +0.29%. If realised, that would leave the year-on-year headline rate at +2.4%, and leave core CPI at +2.8%. Click here for more details and to sign up to their subsequent webinar.
Today should also see attention focus on US fiscal news, after Republicans unveiled a draft version of their tax bill yesterday. The House Ways and Means Committee are set to begin debating it today, and Trump yesterday called on Republicans to unify behind “THE ONE BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL”.
Overnight in Asia, there’s been a mixed performance as they react to the pause in the US-China trade conflict, with the risk-on move losing a bit of momentum. Japanese equities are doing particularly well, with the Nikkei (+1.78%) and the TOPIX (+1.28%) both advancing. Indeed, for the TOPIX, it marks a 13th consecutive increase for the first time since August 2009. Otherwise however, the gains have been more muted, with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (+0.42%) seeing a smaller increase, whilst in mainland China, the Shanghai Comp (+0.08%) and the CSI 300 (+0.03%) have only posted a modest advance. Meanwhile, there’ve been some more negative performances, with the KOSPI down -0.18%), and the Hang Seng is down -1.67%, which would end a run of 8 consecutive daily gains. The more risk-off tone has also been evident in the US, where futures on the S&P 500 have fallen -0.41% this morning, and 10yr Treasury yields (-2.0bps) are back down to 4.45%.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the US CPI release for April. Otherwise, we’ll get UK unemployment for March and the German ZEW survey for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Escriva, Makhlouf and Knot, along with BoE Governor Bailey and the BoE’s Pill.
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Site: southern orders
My blog was the first blog in the world to show Pope Benedict XVI wearing the papal fannon for the first time. My clairvoyance tells me that Pope Leo, in a few years, will recover the fannon too for more solemn papal liturgies.My blog, most humble as it is, through my clairvoyance predicted that Thursday, May 8th would be the day that the new pope would be elected. He was!
On May 8th, as I predicted the election of the new pope, I highlighted that May 8th is the Feast day of the Apparitions of St. Michael the Archangel and that Pope Leo XIII had written the Prayer to St. Michael. Yes, I wrote that before the election of the pope and I suggested that he might take the name Michael. I was wrong about Michael, but more on that later.
I also wrote prior to the pope’s election, that May 8th is also the Feast of Our Lady of the Holy Rosary of Pompeii. After the pope was elected, in his first words to the world, the new pope spoke of Our Lady of Pompeii and then led the world in praying the Hail Mary.
As I mentioned, prior to the pope’s election, I predicted that he might choose the name Michael and I wondered if that would be Pope Michael I as I wasn’t sure if there had been a pope named Michael.
One person who commented on Michael said that there was a schismatic sect in the Church who has a “pope” named Michael and thus he didn’t think the new pope would take that name.
Then another commenter, a convert of mine from St. Joseph in Macon, Georgia, Marc, wrote that the new pope would take the name of Leo XIV! Yes, Marc predicted it and correctly, before the pope was elected, that he would choose the name LEO XIV! I kid you not!
THUS MY BLOG WAS THE FIRST IN THE WORLD BY WAY OF MARC, TO NAME THE NEW POPE’S PAPAL NAME BEFORE THE NEW POPE WAS ELECTED!
Was it intuitive, or does Robert Cardinal Prevost read my blog and did he read what I and Marc predicted about the election of the new pope and what name he would take and the connection to Pope Leo XIII, St. Michael the Archangel and Our Lady of Pompeii as votes were being counted on the day of his election. I doubt that this discreet pope will ever reveal this.
But I do have a feeling, that Pope Leo XIV has read my most humble blog, I really do!
And, in addition to all these phenomenal things coming from my blog as firsts, I was the first to say that we needed to read or interpret Pope Leo XIV through Pope Leo XIII and his social encyclicals. I also indicated that we had to look at Pope Leo the Great (Leo I) to interpret the new pope.
I was the first to write that the new Pope would not cancel Pope Francis but refine his more controversial and seemingly heterodox and cruel decisions.
He would refine TC and make it more like SP, but a refinement of that also.
And now even the heterodox leaning Jesuit Cardinal, Cardinal Hollerich of Luxembourg has said Pope Leo will refine Fiducia Supplicans on blessing actively fornicating lgbtq+++ couples.
I also predicted first that Pope Leo will definitely refine synodality and we will see those refinements and clarity about it very quickly. Pope Leo’s synodality will not undermine the College of Bishops’ divine mandate to teach, rule and sanctify God’s people in union with the pope. Pope Leo’s synodality will promote Catholic unity and purify the divisiveness that Pope Francis’ type of synodality has inflicted upon the Chruch throughout the world.
Pope Leo’s version of synodality will be rooted in the Splendor of Divine Truth as well as Scripture and Tradition and the Magisterium of the Church throughout time.
All this is amazing, so I am told.
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Site: Zero HedgeChina Reverses Ban On Boeing Jet Deliveries After Trade Breakthrough With USTyler Durden Tue, 05/13/2025 - 07:20
China lifted a month-long ban on Boeing jet deliveries for all domestic carriers just one day after a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter.
Chinese officials instructed domestic carriers and government agencies at the start of the week that deliveries of US-made jets were allowed to resume. This decision coincides with a 90-day tariff truce, during which the U.S. slashed tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China cut import duties on US goods from 125% to 10%.
In April, the tit-for-tat trade war between the Trump administration and China led to Beijing's non-tariff countermeasures, including Juneyao Airlines that delayed the delivery of a 787-9 Dreamliner.
Last week, ahead of U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's weekend meeting with Chinese counterparts for the first round of trade talks in Switzerland, a Bloomberg report specified that China Airlines placed an order for more than a dozen 777 planes. At the time, we asked if this was a "goodwill gesture" by Beijing ahead of the trade talks.
Trade talks have since de-escalated the tariff war.
Still, Goldman expects the overall effective tariff rate in the U.S. to be around 15% - a generational high dating back to the 1930s.
China's move to resume Boeing deliveries may provide a short-term boost for the sideways pattern shares have traded in for five years. Premarket activity in New York shows shares are up nearly 1%, trading around the $200 handle. Year-to-date, shares are up 12% as of Monday's close.
Great news for Boeing.
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Site: Zero HedgeTaliban Bans Chess In Afghanistan: 'Means Of Gambling'Tyler Durden Tue, 05/13/2025 - 06:55
We weren't aware that the game of chess could lead to a raging gambling addiction, but apparently the Taliban thinks so...
"The Taliban government in Afghanistan has banned chess until further notice due to fears the game is a source of gambling," BBC reports Monday. "Officials said the game has been prohibited indefinitely until its compatibility with Islamic law can be determined."
"There are religious considerations regarding the sport of chess," Atal Mashwani, the spokesman of the Taliban government's sports directorate, told AFP news agency. "Until these considerations are addressed, the sport of chess is suspended in Afghanistan."
Via AFP
He explained that chess in Islamic sharia law is "considered a means of gambling" - but didn't explain further on how this might be so.
It is but the latest absurd, draconian move by Taliban authorities since seizing power again in August 2021, following a more than two decade war with occupying US-NATO forces.
Some cafe owners have been quoted in Western media reports as describing chess as one of the few positive and healthy activities young people in the country can engage in.
But with many sports and intellectual activities also restricted and deemed 'unIslamic' - there are fewer and fewer games and hobbies the population has access to, also amid ongoing economic collapse and suffering.
"Chess has been gaining popularity in Afghanistan in recent years, according to Khaama Press," Russia's TASS notes. "A few days before it became known about the ban, a group of activists has asked the government for funding to develop chess in the country."
According to a historical outline from Chess.com:
The Taliban had also banned chess soon after coming into power in Afghanistan in 1996, but the game returned as a popular pastime in the country after the regime change in 2001. At the Batumi Olympiad in 2018, Afghanistan won the D Category with CM Khaiber Farazi, CM Habibullah Amini, Wais Abdul Khaliq, Ashrafi Sulaiman Ahmad, and Safy Kanz Ahmad in the team. The Taliban retook control of the country in 2021 and has now announced the suspension.
But many Islamic countries and populations across the Mideast region routinely send chess players to international competitions and events. The Taliban has once again set itself apart as the 'most extreme' government in the region and the world.
Certainly, this 'pause' which is likely to lead to a more permanent ban on playing chess in Afghanistan won't help the Taliban's chances of getting international sanctions against it lifted.
‼️ In connection with the situation with the ban on chess in Afghanistan, I have prepared an appeal to the Taliban leadership with a request to reconsider their decision. pic.twitter.com/pP7qojbLJ6
— Кирсан Илюмжинов (@Kirsan__) May 11, 2025The war-ravaged country's pre-Taliban population, for example back in the 1970s, was actually somewhat liberal, cosmopolitan and open - with women regularly wearing European fashions, and Islamic garb was rarely seen in the cities.
All of that changed with the CIA's Operation Cyclone, which saw American and allied operatives (such as in Pakistan's ISI) arm, train, and equip radical Afghan and Arab mujahideen. These militants would later form the core of the Taliban and its terror allies.
An Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent and a local police officer arrest an illegal immigrant in Florida in April 2025. ICE
Illegal immigrants from Venezuela turn themselves in to Texas state troopers after crossing the border from Mexico into Del Rio, Texas, on May 18, 2021. John Moore/Getty Images
U.S. military personnel escort alleged members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua and the MS-13 gang recently deported by the U.S. government to be imprisoned in the Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT) prison as part of an agreement with the Salvadoran government, in San Luis Talpa, El Salvador, on March 30, 2025. Office of the President's Press Secretary/Reuters
Chief Justice John Roberts attends the State of the Union address in the House Chamber of the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Feb. 7, 2023. Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/Getty Images
People wait to drive through the Holland Tunnel into New York during morning rush hour in Jersey City, N.J., on March 8, 2023. Ted Shaffrey/AP Photo
(Nikkei Montage / Reuters)
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