Distinction Matter - Subscribed Feeds

  1. Site: Zero Hedge
    3 weeks 6 days ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    "We're Going To Start Getting It Back": Trump Admin Begins Collecting On Student Loans In Default

    Last week we highlighted the next economic shock; a student loan default wave that could cause a $63 billion hit to GDP.

    And here it comes. During Wednesday's Cabinet meeting, Education Secretary Linda McMahon said "We're going to start getting it back," adding "For those people who have borrowed money and have not been paying -- that's just not to be punitive, there are many ways that they can go online to understand how they can get back into the right payment structure. Because when they're in default, they can't buy a house, they can't buy a car, their credit scores go down." h/t Jennifer Jacobs

    As we reported last week (full note available to premium subscribers), student-loan delinquencies began climbing after the pandemic-era forbearance on repayment ended in September 2023. The Biden administration allowed a year for payments to fully ramp back up, which temporarily suppressed delinquency rates. Now, though, missed payments are crossing the 90-day threshold and showing up on borrowers’ credit reports.

    *  *  *

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    The New York Fed estimates 15.6% of federal student-loan balances —  more than $250 billion — were past due by the end of the ramp-up period, affecting 9.7 million borrowers. As these delinquencies hit credit reports, borrowers face steep declines in their credit scores and, more importantly, sharply reduced access to credit.

    That said, delinquent borrowers could still enroll in income-driven repayment plans offered by the Department of Education, and the scale of past-due loans may have shifted since the end of the on-ramp period. Some borrowers who were past due may have come back into compliance since.

    Overall, if 9.7 million borrowers default and face declining credit scores, BBG estimates a drag on annual PCE spending of 0.1% point to 0.3%. In the worst-case scenario, it could reduce PCE spending growth by as much as 0.4% by year-end... an outcome that is extremely deflationary, just in case Jerome Powell is still debating whether or not to pull the plug on rate cuts.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 18:05
  2. Site: Zero Hedge
    3 weeks 6 days ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Kremlin Mocks Zelensky Dragging His Feet On Peace: 'US Can't Sign Deal On Behalf Of Kiev'

    The Kremlin has called out the US and Ukraine, for what looks like an emerging trend of Washington essentially dragging Zelensky by the ear toward a peace deal. Russia is saying that ultimately it cannot sign a deal with the United States - but that for the war to end, a legitimate settlement must be made bilaterally with Kiev.

    Putin spokesman Dimitry Peskov said Wednesday that even though Russia welcomes the Trump administration's mediation efforts, the reality remains that "A peace deal should be done with the Ukraine, not with America."

    Via CNN

    "Unfortunately, we haven’t heard any statements in this context from Kiev, so we don’t know whether Kiev is ready or not," Peskov emphasized, strongly suggesting that the Ukrainian side isn't really seeking peace.

    The Kremlin reiterated that currently contacts with Ukraine are only at the military level, to broker things like POW exchanges and returns of the wounded and deceased.

    President Trump has of late been expressing frustration, somewhat lashing out at both sides - though he's seemed especially frustrated with Zelensky. Ukraine and the US were expected to finally sigh a minerals deal on Wednesday, but a "last minute hurdle" prevented that.

    Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin actually had harsher statements, filling in more details beyond Peskov's exchange with reporters.

    "Not a single attempt to declare a ceasefire has in practice been supported by the Kiev regime, which continued to violate the truce. This shows that the regime is staking everything on war," Galuzin told Izvestia, adding: "moreover, Kiev’s self-imposed legislative ban on negotiations with Russia remains in effect."

    And separately, Russian roving diplomat for the Donbass, Rodion Miroshnik, said "There is no basis to suggest that Ukraine is ready to alter its actions on the ground in any way. We do not see this happening. All we observe is erratic, pseudo-peacekeeping rhetoric. Hollow declarations of peace are not enough, we do not see any indication that Ukraine is demonstrating or confirming a willingness to pursue a ceasefire."

    To review, Russia has this month put forth the following key demands to end the war:

    • an end of Ukraine's ban on negotiations with Russia,
    • for Ukraine to go back to the status of a neutral and non-aligned country in accordance with the Declaration of State Sovereignty of Ukraine in the 1990's,
    • an end of the policies of legally and physically destroy everything Russian: the language, media, culture, traditions, and Russian orthodoxy
    • the international recognition of Russia's ownership of Crimea, the DPR, LPR and the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions.

    Trump argues it has been easier to deal with Putin than Zelensky pic.twitter.com/TsajLRSaBB

    — Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) April 29, 2025

    The reality remains that neither Ukraine nor Washington seem any closer to accepting all of these terms, despite months of back-and-forth dialogue, and several rounds of US and Russian delegations meeting. Meanwhile, Zelensky has been coming under threat from some of his own commanders as they warn him not to give up territory to Russia for the sake of peace.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 18:00
  3. Site: RT - News
    3 weeks 6 days ago
    Author: RT

    The agreement granting Washington access to the country’s natural resources comes amid American military aid cuts and growing tensions over Trump’s peace initiative

    Washington and Kiev have signed a minerals deal granting the US access to developing Ukraine’s natural resources, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Ukrainian Economy Minister Yuliya Sviridenko announced on Wednesday.

    The agreement comes as Ukraine seeks security guarantees from Washington as part of a potential peace deal with Moscow that US President Donald Trump is working to negotiate.

    The deal sees the establishment of the United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund. “President Trump envisioned this partnership between the American people and the Ukrainian people to show both sides’ commitment to lasting peace and prosperity in Ukraine,” Bessent said in a statement.

    The full text of the agreement has not yet been released. Sviridenko said the fund will be jointly managed by Ukraine and the US “on a 50/50 basis,” and that “neither side will hold a dominant vote.”

    She said that 50% of the revenue from new licenses in the fields of critical materials, oil, and gas will be directed to the fund.

    Read more RT Zelensky demands ‘at least’ Israel-style support from US

    “Full ownership and control remain with Ukraine,” the Ukrainian minister added. “It is the Ukrainian state that determines what and where to extract. Subsoil remains under Ukrainian ownership – this is clearly established in the Agreement.”

    According to Sviridenko, the deal does not alter privatization processes or the management of state-owned companies. She said that the oil and gas giant Ukrnafta, as well as Energoatom – the operator of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants – will remain under government ownership.

    While the Biden administration approved large aid packages for Ukraine, including the supply of advanced weaponry, the current US president has focused on shifting the burden of assistance to Kiev’s European supporters. In February 2025, the US went so far as to halt all military support to the country following a tense Oval Office meeting between US President Donald Trump, US Vice President J.D. Vance, and Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky.

    According to various estimates, Washington has provided at least $170 billion to Kiev. The White House insists those expenses should be compensated via access to Ukraine’s mineral resources, including rare earth elements critical to high-tech industries.

    Negotiations between the two countries over a minerals agreement have been underway since the early days of Trump’s return to office. A preliminary memorandum of intent was signed on April 17, but the US president has publicly criticized the delay in finalizing the deal. In a post on Truth Social on April 25, he accused Zelensky of being “three weeks late” in signing it and demanded that it be completed “immediately.”

    Although the minerals agreement does not explicitly include US security guarantees for Ukraine, it is described as “an expression of a broader, long-term strategic alignment . . . and a tangible demonstration of the United States of America’s support for Ukraine’s security, prosperity, reconstruction and integration into global economic frameworks,” according to the Financial Times.

    Read more US National Security Adviser Michael Waltz at the White House, March 07, 2025, Washington, DC. Ukraine one of the world’s most corrupt countries – Trump adviser

    Zelensky said last week that Kiev hopes to receive long-term security assistance from Washington, similar to the US-Israel model.

    Meanwhile, Trump declined to clarify whether the US would continue to provide military aid to Ukraine if a peace agreement between Kiev and Moscow is not reached. “I want to leave that as a big, fat secret, because I don't want to ruin a negotiation,” he said in an interview with ABC News on Tuesday.

    Axios reported last week that Washington had given Kiev what President Donald Trump called a “final offer” to resolve the conflict. The United States has expressed mounting frustration over the lack of progress in the peace negotiations. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week that Washington may withdraw from the talks entirely if they stall.

    In February, Reuters cited estimates from two Ukrainian think tanks stating that about 40% of Ukraine’s metal resources are now under Russian control.

    According to the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD), between 50% and 100% of the lithium, tantalum, cesium, and strontium deposits claimed by Ukraine are located in territories currently controlled by Russia.

  4. Site: Zero Hedge
    3 weeks 6 days ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Illinois Judge Slams 'Jack-Booted, Ham-Handed' Arrest Of Wisconsin Judge As 'Reminiscent Of Hitler And Mussolini'

    Authored by Catrina Barker via The Center Square,

    An Illinois appellate court judge says the arrest of Wisconsin Judge Hannah Dugan was "reminiscent of King George, Hitler and Mussolini." An Illinois constitutional attorney disagrees.

    Judge James Knecht criticized the Trump administration's heavy-handed courthouse arrest of Dugan. 

    “The administration practiced jack booted, ham handed, procedures to arrest Judge Dugan at the courthouse. Reminiscent of King George, Hitler and Mussolini,” Knecht wrote. 

    David Shestokas, a constitutional attorney who ran in the Republican primary for Illinois Attorney General, accused Dugan of defying federal authority by helping an illegal immigrant avoid Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents.

    “The problem is, she just exhibited her own disrespect for the authority of the federal government. In terms of providing her with your typical kind of nonviolent courtesy, you know, we'll give you a call and you can come and turn yourself in sort-of-thing. She had just demonstrated her own disrespect for the federal officers,” said Shestokas. 

    Knecht called the arrest an “overreach.” He suggested the proper approach would have been to contact Dugan’s chief judge, the court administrator, and Wisconsin’s chief justice to clarify how state judges should interact with ICE.

    “Am I asking for a judge to receive special treatment? No – Judge Dugan is being used as an example to strike fear into the heart of state authorities, judges included,” stated Knecht. “The state judiciary and the federal authorities are obligated to cooperate. One does not encourage such cooperation by arresting a judge to punish her for what may have been a mistake in judgment, or a reaction to the furor over immigration policy.”

    Shestokas said physically arresting the judge is a bit unusual.

    [The federal authorities] were clearly interested in sending a message … that it didn't matter who you are or what position you hold,” said Shestokas. “If, in fact, you aided and abetted someone who was lawfully to be detained by ICE and you interfered with that, you've broken the law and you're subject to arrest.” 

    Dugan allegedly led Mexican national Eduardo Flores-Ruiz and his lawyer out a restricted jury door to avoid ICE agents, a route the judge controls, according to Shestokas.

    Knecht said on social media that he usually sleeps peacefully. However, he suggested he was awake thinking about Dugan’s arrest.

    I did not sleep well last night. I usually sleep peacefully. I was thinking about Judge Dugan in Wisconsin,” stated Knecht. “Some states and cities have laws or policies to not assist federal authorities such as ICE or FBI – of course, not assisting is not the same as obstructing. For me, the issue is not what Judge Dugan did (I do not support how she handled this) but how the authorities responded.”

    In 2023, Knecht received $249,337 in pension benefits from the Illinois Judges Retirement System. 

    Shestokas said Knecht’s social media post reflected a call for judges to be treated with a certain level of respect.

    “I have no idea why there was any suggestion that there should be a consultation with the Wisconsin Supreme Court to determine how judges are supposed to do things. We know they’re not supposed to help criminals avoid arrest, prosecution, or detention,” said Shestokas. “It's not unusual at all to inform the judge that there's agents of whatever law enforcement agency outside intending to arrest someone when they leave the courtroom.”

    Shestokas said no one uses the jury door without the judge’s permission, and despite being courteously informed about the planned arrest, she responded by allegedly breaking the law.

    “Judge Duggan was given a heads up that there were agents outside the courtroom preparing to arrest an individual that was in their charge with the crime. And after she was given that heads up, apparently she sent a message to the agents that they should go visit with the chief judge. And then apparently she took the guy they wanted outside the side door, out the jury door,” said Shestokas. 

    Knecht served as a law clerk to Illinois Supreme Court Justice Robert C. Underwood from 1973 to 1974, then as an Associate Circuit Judge from 1975 to 1978, and as a Circuit Judge from 1978 to 1986, before being elected to the Fourth District Appellate Court in 1986.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 17:40
  5. Site: Zero Hedge
    3 weeks 6 days ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Pakistan Warns It Has 'Credible Intelligence' India Will Attack Within 36 Hours

    It is impossible to know the degree to which this is typical conflict propaganda, but Pakistan is claiming that India is planning a military strike on its territory, and that this is coming within less than one to two days.

    "Pakistan has credible intelligence that India intends to launch a military strike within the next 24 to 36 hours, using the Pahalgam incident as a false pretext," Pakistan's Information Minister Attaullah Tarar wrote on X Tuesday evening.

    Via Middle East Institute

    "Any act of aggression will be met with a decisive response. India will be fully responsible for any serious consequences in the region," Tarar added.

    India has charged that Pakistan harbored the terrorists responsible for the attack on Indian-administered Kashmir which came one week ago and left 26 dead. They were mostly tourists from India visiting the popular and picturesque spot, and the gunmen chose them for execution on the spot because they were Hindu.

    Gunfire has already been exchanged between the nuclear-armed rivals over the last several days, with neither side reporting any casualties or major incidents.

    The last time there was a major terror attack targeting Indians in Kashmir, the Indian Air Force did respond:

    The worst attack in recent years in Indian-run Kashmir was at Pulwama in 2019, when an insurgent rammed a car packed with explosives into a security forces convoy, killing 40 and wounding 35.

    Indian fighter jets carried out air strikes on Pakistani territory 12 days later.

    Pakistan has meanwhile welcomed China and Russia's efforts to mediate de-escalation, also as the United Nations has urged restraint.

    US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said he is holding dialogue with officials from both sides. "We are reaching out to both parties, and telling, of course, them to not escalate the situation," a statement from the State Dept said.

    The only significant military action so far is that Pakistan's military said Tuesday it shot down an Indian spy drone over Kashmir, alleging that the UAV breached Pakistani-administered territory.

    Pakistan has credible intelligence that within the next 24 to 36 hours, India is planning military action against Pakistan based on baseless and fabricated accusations related to the Pahalgam incident. – Information Minister Attaullah Tarar#IndiaPakistan #PakistanBehindPahalgam pic.twitter.com/8juDCkUFCJ

    — Noor Fatima (@Fatima_Zahra120) April 30, 2025

    The drone reportedly breached the Line of Control (LOC), Pakistani state-run media said, and it was subsequently shot down amid the air space incursion. Pakistani defense officials described to The Associated Press that the drone flew hundreds of feet into Pakistani-administered Kashmir.

    And alarmingly, a Pakistani minister, Hanif Abbasi (though he's not in defense or security) days ago warned that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal of more than 130 missiles was "not kept as models" and was aimed “only for India … these ballistic missiles, all of them are targeted at you" - as cited in The Guardian.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 17:20
  6. Site: LifeNews
    3 weeks 6 days ago
    Author: Michael New Ph.D.

    The Ethics and Public Policy Center released the results of a new study on the health risks of chemical abortions. Obtaining data from a private health insurance registry, they were able to analyze health outcomes from over 800,000 women who obtained chemical abortions between 2017 and 2023.

    They found that over 4 percent of these women visited an emergency room and that nearly 11 percent suffered a serious adverse event. These risks are far greater than the health risks reported by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

    This study is important for several reasons. First, it considers relatively recent data on the health outcomes of women who obtained chemical abortions. Most of the previous research on the safety of chemical abortions analyzed older data. Prior to 2016, women obtaining chemical abortions had to make multiple in-person visits to a medical professional. Additionally, only pregnant women at less than seven weeks’ gestation could obtain chemical abortions.

    HELP LIFENEWS SAVE BABIES FROM ABORTION! Please help LifeNews.com with a donation!

    However, in 2016 the Obama administration FDA allowed women up to ten weeks’ pregnant to obtain chemical abortions and reduced the number of in-person visits to a medical professional from three to one. Then in July 2020, during the Covid-19 pandemic, a federal district court suspended the requirement that mifepristone be distributed in person.

    That allowed women to obtain chemical abortion drugs through the mail without an in-person medical exam. The Biden administration continued this unwise policy after the conclusion of the Covid-19 pandemic.

    These policy changes clearly increased the health risks involved with chemical abortions. However, there was scant hard data to demonstrate this. Making matters worse, in 2016 the FDA ceased mandating the reporting of complications related to chemical abortions — with the exception of deaths. Now these health risks can be documented.

    Finally, it is important that the data came from a private health insurance registry. Supporters of legal abortion have downplayed previous research that analyzed Medicaid recipients who had obtained chemical abortions. They often claimed that poor public health outcomes were due to the fact that women on Medicaid are disproportionately low-income. They also argued that women on Medicaid are more likely than other women to seek health care at emergency rooms.

    They cannot make those arguments here.

    Protecting women and preborn children from chemical abortion drugs has become an important priority for the pro-life movement. After a fairly consistent 37-year decline, the U.S. abortion rate started to increase in 2017, shortly after the Obama administration FDA loosened regulations on chemical abortion drugs. Furthermore, many women in states with strong pro-life laws circumvent these laws by obtaining chemical abortion drugs through the mail.

    Hopefully, this study will give Trump FDA appointees the data they need to place limits on chemical abortion drugs and even to reconsider FDA approval of mifepristone.

    LifeNews Note: Michael J. New is an assistant professor at the Busch School of Business at The Catholic University of America and is an associate scholar at the Charlotte Lozier Institute. Follow him on Twitter @Michael_J_New

    The post Over 4% of Women Taking Abortion Pill Wind Up in ER appeared first on LifeNews.com.

  7. Site: RT - News
    3 weeks 6 days ago
    Author: RT

    The agreement stops short of actually handing Washington control over Ukraine’s resources, Reuters has reported

    Washington and Kiev are set to sign a major mineral resources agreement, which US President Donald Trump has been pushing for months. Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Sviridenko has flown to the US to seal the deal, Prime Minister Denis Shmigal said on Wednesday, adding that the document should be signed within 24 hours.

    Neither the US nor Ukraine have officially presented the details to the public yet. Reuters, which claims to have seen a draft of the document, reported that it would involve creating a joint fund that would receive half of all profits the Ukrainian government gets from any new natural resources permits issued in Ukraine. The document reportedly does not specify how the money will be spent or who controls the spending decisions.

    The agreement would provide the US with preferential access to any new Ukrainian resource deals but would not give it direct control over Ukraine’s mineral resources or gas infrastructure, according to Reuters. Kiev also reportedly refused to include any requirements that it pay the US back for billions of dollars spent on military assistance. America can still count any new military aid as its contribution to the joint fund, according to Shmigal.

    Read more US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks during the daily press briefing at the White House, Washington, DC. April 29, 2025 Ukraine backtracked on resources deal – US Treasury

    The two sides have reportedly hit a last-minute snag, according to sources cited by Reuters and CNN. Washington reportedly insists on signing two technical documents detailing certain provisions of the deal along with the agreement. Kiev insists that the agreement must first be ratified by the Ukrainian parliament before other documents can be signed, according to the Financial Times.

    Speaking at a cabinet meeting on Wednesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Ukraine sought to make last-minute changes to the already agreed deal. “We’re sure they’ll reconsider that. We are ready to sign this afternoon, but they aren’t,” he told journalists.

    Trump stated that “we’ve made a deal where our money is secure where we can start digging and do what we have to do.” It is unclear if he was referring to the original US proposal or the final deal. The White House has yet to make an official announcement.

  8. Site: Henrymakow.com
    3 weeks 6 days ago


    IMG_٢٠٢٥٠٤٣٠_٢٣٠٨٥٤ (1).jpg
    This is me and my sister who lost her husband and all her children. From the heart of our little tent, we send you our greetings and hope that you are well



    I am Hamdi Muqdad, a 22-year-old university student. I live in the stricken city of Gaza, where killing, bombing, and destruction are raging. 

    My only remaining sister and I live in a small tent after losing our home and all our family members, including my mother, my older brother, my younger brother, my sister and her children, her husband, and my aunt and her family, in a bombing that targeted our home.

     I studied information and communication technology at the University College in Gaza, but I did not complete my education due to the outbreak of war and the difficult conditions. 

    I am speaking to you here from the heart of famine and the unprecedented high cost of living in the world, where there are no basic necessities for a decent life. 

    All crossings have been closed for months, and we are not allowed to bring in food or medicine. 

    Life is nonexistent here. We live in tents that do not protect us from the heat of the sun or the cold of winter. 

    There is no food, no water, no fuel, and no cooking gas. 

    Every morning, we search for firewood to light a fire so we can cook some water and animal food, which is not fit for eating.

     I am a young man at the beginning of my life. I want this war to stop and for me to live a dignified life free from wars, killing, and displacement.

     I want to eat food, drink water, and take medicine. I am a university student with aspirations of education and earning a university degree, but unfortunately, this will not happen while I am here in Gaza. 

    I must leave it soon, and this requires a very large sum of money to be allowed to leave. I am not here to beg your sympathy or to make you sad, but rather to explain to you what we are living through now. 

    I ask you to share my story as widely as possible, so that we can deliver this message to the entire world and to every person with a living conscience. Thank you.



  9. Site: Zero Hedge
    3 weeks 6 days ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Hegseth Ends Women's Leadership Program

    Authored by Rachel Acenas via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Tuesday announced he is scrapping a women’s leadership program implemented during President Donald Trump’s first term.

    U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth speaks during the Central American Security Conference in Panama City, on April 9, 2025. Matias Delacroix/AP Photo

    The program is operated by the United Nations and is “pushed by feminists and left-wing activists,” according to the defense secretary.

    This morning, I proudly ENDED the ‘Women, Peace & Security’ (WPS) program inside the [Department of Defense],” Hegseth wrote in a statement on X. “WPS is yet another woke divisive/social justice/Biden initiative that overburdens our commanders and troops—distracting from our core task: WAR-FIGHTING.”

    Hegseth said that “politicians fawn” over the program but troops “hate” it.

    The WPS program was developed in response to the Women, Peace, and Security Act, which Trump signed into law on Oct. 6, 2017. The Trump administration at the time said it recognized that women are important agents of change in preventing and resolving conflicts, countering violent extremism, and building peace and stability.

    The law, outlined by the U.N. Security Council and adopted as in a resolution in 2000, had been championed over the years by various members of Congress. The cause was then taken up by Ivanka Trump, the president’s daughter and former advisor, after it was signed into U.S. law.

    Ivanka said in a June 2019 statement that good defense policy requires women’s participation and empowerment. She also stated that women are “critically underrepresented in conflict-resolution and post-conflict peace building efforts” and women only make up 2 percent of mediators, 3 percent of military personnel, and 9 percent of negotiators globally.

    Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem co-sponsored the WPS Act when she represented South Dakota in Congress.

    Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), who co-wrote the 2017 bill with then-Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), wrote on X that Hegseth’s latest move was “short-sighted.” She disagreed with Hegseth’s assertion that troops hate the program and argued it’s supported by military leadership and has proven to give the country a strategic advantage.

    Amy McGrath, the first woman to fly a combat mission for the Marine Corps, argued in a statement on X that the program brought women to the negotiating table to end conflicts around the world. McGrath added that more sustainable peace is likely when women are included.

    Hegseth later Tuesday appeared to push back on any criticism of his move on X.  He doubled down on his decision to scrub the program, suggesting that the Biden administration “distorted and weaponized” the women’s initiative that was meant to be “straight-forward and security-focused” after it launched in 2017. Hegesth did not further elaborate how Biden allegedly “ruined” the program.

    Tuesday’s announcement aligns with the Trump administration’s efforts to end federal diversity initiatives across the government. It also aligns with the efforts by the Department of Government Efficiency to slash government waste and abuse.

    Hegseth declared he would “fight to end the program for our next budget.” The Pentagon did not provide specific details on how much the initiative costs.

    From NTD News

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 17:00
  10. Site: Zero Hedge
    3 weeks 6 days ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Meta Soars After Blowing Away Estimates, Hikes Capex Forecast

    In our preview of META's Q1 results this afternoon (ahead of which Goldman's desk had positioning as a 7 out of 10), we said that it feels like centuries ago that META had that 20-day winning streak in Jan/Feb with the name now nearly 30% below YTD highs, which put tactical positioning in cleaner spot into today's print relative to recent META prints (bear case focused on macro/tariff-related risks to Revenues vs elevated capex/expense burdens). Well, the bulls can exhale because the results which META just reported will give them another taste of what that meltup felt lik,  because the stock is surging 5% on a big top and bottom line beat, coupled with an increase to the capex guidance.

    Here is are the blowout results which META reported for Q1:

    • EPS $6.43 vs. $4.71 y/y, beating estimate $5.25
       
    • Revenue $42.31 billion, +16% y/y, beating estimate $41.38 billion
      • Advertising rev. $41.39 billion, +16% y/y, beating estimate $40.55 billion
      • Family of Apps revenue $41.90 billion, +16% y/y, beating estimate $40.89 billion
      • Reality Labs revenue $412 million, -6.4% y/y, missing estimate $496 million
      • Other revenue $510 million, +34% y/y, beating estimate $498.6 million
         
    • Operating income $17.56 billion, +27% y/y, beating estimates of $15.52 billion
      • Family of Apps operating income $21.77 billion, +23% y/y, beating estimates of $20.04 billion
      • Reality Labs operating loss $4.21 billion, +9.5% y/y, above the estimated loss $4.54 billion
    • Operating margin 41% vs. 38% y/y, beating estimate 37.5%

     

    • Ad impressions +5% vs. +20% y/y, missing estimates of +6.87%
      • Average price per ad +10% vs. +6% y/y, beating estimates of +6.75%
      • Average Family service users per day 3.43 billion, +5.9% y/y, beating estimates of 3.33 billion

    Here are some of the key charts from the quarter, starting with Revenue by geography:

    EPS:

    Segment results:

    Expenses continued to shrink:

    Users are growing...

    ... as is revenue per user

    Meta needs its advertising business to continue growing in order to fund an expensive expansion in artificial intelligence, which is driving the future of the business through improvements to ads, algorithms and personalization. Sure enough, the guidance was solid, if harldy stellar:

    • For Q2, META expects revenue to be in the range of $42.5-45.5 billion, in line with the estimate of $44.1 billion.
    • For the full year, META expects total expenses to be in the range of $113-118 billion, down from the prior outlook of $114-119 billion.

    But perhaps most important, at a time when everyone was freaking out about sliding capex, Meta boosted its capex forecast, and now sees it be in the range of $64-72 billion, increased from our prior outlook of $60-65 billion. 

    This updated outlook "reflects additional data center investments to support our artificial intelligence efforts as well as an increase in the expected cost of infrastructure hardware. The majority of our capital expenditures in 2025 will continue to be directed to our core business."

    This is important because while META once again missed on its actual capex, spending $12.94BN on property and equipment in Q1, well below the $14.239BN expected...

    ... the company is once again hockeysitcking its capex forecast, and is clearly backloading spending in the second half of the year, when at least according to most nevertrumper eceonomists, the US will be in a deep recession.

    In response to the blowout earnings, shares rose as much as 5.6% in after-hours trading, after closing at $549. Meta stock was down more than 6% year-to-date before the company reported earnings, still performing better than most of America’s biggest technology companies amid the recent market selloff.


    The full META presentation is below (pdf link).

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 16:47
  11. Site: Novus Motus Liturgicus
    3 weeks 6 days ago
    Our friend James Griffin of The Durandus Institute for Sacred Liturgy and Music wishes all our readers a joyous Easter season, by presenting two opportunities, at least for those in southeast Pennsylvania, to celebrate.First, this coming Sunday at 5pm, there will be a solemn Vespers in the traditional Latin rite for the Second Sunday after Easter at St. Richard of Chichester Parish in south Gregory DiPippohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13295638279418781125noreply@blogger.com0
  12. Site: RT - News
    3 weeks 6 days ago
    Author: RT

    America’s new realism means peace with Russia and focus on China

    The first 100 days of Donald Trump’s second presidency have sparked a wave of commentary portraying him as a revolutionary. Indeed, the speed, pressure, and determination with which he has acted are striking. But this view is superficial. Trump is not dismantling the foundations of the American state or society. On the contrary, he seeks to restore the pre-globalist republic that the liberal elite long ago diverted onto a utopian internationalist path. In this sense, Trump is not a revolutionary, but a counterrevolutionary – an ideological revisionist determined to reverse the excesses of the liberal era.

    At home, Trump benefits from Republican majorities in both houses of Congress. Legal challenges to his policies – particularly on downsizing government and deporting illegal immigrants – have so far made little progress. Accustomed to media attacks, Trump continues to hit back hard. The recent story alleging that top officials debated strikes on Yemen over Signal has not gained political traction. If anything, it reinforces Trump’s image as a president who acts decisively and without fear of scandal.

    Trump’s economic course is clear: re-industrialization, tariff protectionism, and investment in cutting-edge technologies. He is reversing decades of globalist integration, pressing allies to pool financial and technological resources with the US to rebuild its industrial base. Tactically, Trump applies pressure early, then offers retreats and compromises to lure competitors into negotiations favorable to America. This approach has been effective, particularly with Washington’s allies. Even with China, Trump is betting that Beijing’s reliance on the US market, and America’s influence over EU and Japanese trade policy, will yield strategic concessions.

    In geopolitics, Trump embraces a realist doctrine grounded in great-power competition. He has defined his global priorities: secure North America as a geopolitical fortress from Greenland to Panama; redirect US and allied power toward containing China; make peace with Russia; and consolidate influence in the Middle East by supporting Israel, partnering with Gulf monarchies, and confronting Iran.

    Read more  US President Donald Trump. Ivan Timofeev: This late Soviet leader’s legacy is a warning to Trump

    In the military sphere, Trump is pursuing greater American strength by purging the armed forces of “gender liberalism” and accelerating strategic nuclear modernization. Despite his public peace overtures, he has continued airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen and has warned of devastating retaliation against Iran should negotiations fail.

    His approach to Ukraine reflects strategic pragmatism. Trump aims to end the war quickly, not out of sympathy for Russia, but to free US resources for the Pacific theater and to reduce the risk of escalation into a nuclear conflict. He expects Western Europe to assume more responsibility for its own defense.

    Importantly, Trump does not see Russia as a primary adversary. He views Moscow as a geopolitical rival, but not a military or ideological threat. Rather than pushing to sever Russia from China, he aims to re-engage Russia economically – in areas like energy, the Arctic, and rare earths – with the expectation that greater Western economic engagement will reduce Moscow’s dependence on Beijing.

    In fact, outreach to the Kremlin has become the centerpiece of Trump’s foreign policy in his second term. His goal is not to divide Moscow and Beijing outright, but to lay the groundwork for a new global balance of power in which Russia has options beyond the Chinese orbit.

    In sum, Trump is not tearing down the American system but striving to restore it. His counterrevolution is aimed at reversing liberal-globalist distortions, reinforcing sovereignty, and returning realism to international affairs. It is this mission – not chaos or confrontation – that is defining his presidency.

    This article was first published by Kommersant, and was translated and edited by the RT team.

  13. Site: Zero Hedge
    3 weeks 6 days ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Elon Musk Not Working From White House Anymore, Chief Of Staff Confirms

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A top Trump administration official confirmed that Tesla CEO Elon Musk, a senior adviser to President Donald Trump, is no longer working from the White House.

    (L-R) Elon Musk, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick walk toward Marine One on the south lawn of the White House in Washington on March 7, 2025. Travis Gillmore/The Epoch Times

    Instead of meeting with him in person, I’m talking to him on the phone, but it’s the same net effect,” White House chief of staff Susie Wiles told the New York Post in an interview published Tuesday.

    Musk, who leads the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), “hasn’t been here physically, but it really doesn’t matter much,” Wiles said. “His folks aren’t going anywhere.”

    Wiles said they are working in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building near the West Wing of the White House.

    He’s not out of it altogether. He’s just not physically present as much as he was,” Wiles said. “The people that are doing this work are here doing good things and paying attention to the details. He’ll be stepping back a little, but he’s certainly not abandoning it. And his people are definitely not.”

    The Epoch Times contacted the White House for additional comment on Wednesday.

    Last week, Musk told Tesla investors on a call that he would be stepping away from DOGE and White House work starting in May. As a special government employee, Musk also has to leave the government within 130 days of beginning his role there.

    Musk said on the call that he will continue to support the Trump administration and DOGE “to make sure that the waste and fraud that we stop does not come roaring back.”

    He made those remarks as his company posted lower-than-anticipated profits and net revenue for the first quarter of 2025. Tesla has also been subject to a series of arson attacks and vandalism since Musk joined the administration, leading to several arrests, which Musk has decried.

    Before that, Trump told reporters on April 3 that Musk will leave in “a few months” and noted that he has “companies to run,” stressing he wants the tech billionaire to “stay as long as possible.”

    Vice President JD Vance said in an early April Fox News interview that after Musk leaves the administration, he will provide recommendations to the administration because “DOGE has got a lot of work to do.”

    Since taking office on Jan. 20, Trump has been on a cost-cutting spree that has taken recommendations from DOGE, including the slashing of tens of thousands of federal jobs and the attempted dismantling of multiple agencies. DOGE and the administration have faced a number of lawsuits, with some judges temporarily pausing DOGE’s access to multiple agencies.

    A DOGE website that gives regular updates says that some $160 billion has been saved to date, while more than 8,400 government contracts and more than 9,600 grants have been terminated so far. The organization has also canceled some 470,000 credit cards used by dozens of federal agencies since it started.

    But the effort to slash government funding is not without critics. Congressional Democrats on Tuesday, without naming DOGE, said that Trump and Musk have blocked more than $400 billion in funding that they say was approved by Congress.

    “Instead of investing in the American people, President Trump is ignoring our laws and ripping resources away,” said Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), the top Democrats on the Senate and House appropriations committees.

    House Democrats in a letter this month also reminded Musk that he must leave the government before May 30, and asked for confirmation that he would do so.

    “We demand an immediate public statement from your administration making clear that Musk will resign and surrender all decision making authority,” the letter said.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 16:35
  14. Site: RT - News
    3 weeks 6 days ago
    Author: RT

    Kiev’s team introduced surprise changes to the agreement just as the US was about to sign, Secretary Scott Bessent has said

    Kiev has made last-minute changes to a minerals deal it was expected to sign with Washington on Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said.

    Tense talks over the agreement have simmered between the US and Ukraine for months. President Donald Trump has advertised the deal as a way for Washington to recoup what he describes as some $350 billion the US has spent on backing Kiev in the current conflict, through the future joint exploitation of its mineral resources.

    The Ukrainian side made alterations to the document just as they were expected to seal the deal, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said during a press conference in the Oval Office on Wednesday.

    “Our side’s ready to sign. The Ukrainians decided last night to make some last-minute changes,” he told reporters.

    “We’re assured that they will reconsider that,” Bessent said, adding that he hopes the deal will be signed on Wednesday afternoon.

    Read more RT US-Ukraine resource deal imminent – Bloomberg

    A delegation from Ukraine led by Economy Minister Yulia Sviridenko went to the US after securing a clause that stipulated only future military aid would count for Washington’s contribution to the deal, rather than the totality of the aid provided so far, Financial Times wrote on Wednesday.

    According to a copy of the agreement seen by the outlet, under the deal, the US and Ukraine would invest into Ukrainian mining, energy and related technology sectors via a joint investment fund and through the exploitation of the country’s mineral wealth.

    Sviridenko was told to “be ready to sign all agreements, or go back home,” FT wrote, citing anonymous Ukrainian officials.

    The US wants Ukraine to sign both the framework pact and a detailed agreement on the proposed fund that would seal the full minerals deal, the newspaper wrote.

    Read more US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky during their meeting at the Vatican. Zelensky pleaded with Trump in Vatican – The Economist

    Kiev’s team refused to sign the documents as “the fund agreement must be ratified by their country’s parliament before it can be signed,” FT wrote, citing its Ukrainian sources.

    Trump has increasingly criticized Kiev and Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky for slow progress towards concluding the agreement.

    In late February, the two had a public altercation in the Oval Office, just as the deal was widely expected to be signed. During the heated exchange, Trump accused Zelensky of not being thankful for US aid, and of “gambling with World War III,” for not negotiating with Russia.

  15. Site: Zero Hedge
    3 weeks 6 days ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Microsoft Surges After AI/Cloud Growth Accelerates; But CapEx Slowed

    On the heels of Microsoft's decision to walk away from discussions to lease new server farm space and slow construction on land it already owns, all eyes are on the giant tech company's fiscal third-quarter earnings tonight for any signs of slowing on data center spending plans when it reports Wednesday.

    “We believe that the Azure results and guidance as well as Microsoft’s commentary on capex are going to be the keys to the quarter,” wrote Kirk Materne, an analyst at Evercore ISI.

    Investors watch these expenses closely for a glimpse of long-term cloud and AI demand expectations from the world’s largest software maker.

    So, what's the score?

    MSFT beat on EVERYTHING...

    Microsoft beat on the top line with Q3 revenues of $70.07 Billion (well above the $68.48 billion consensus) and the bottom line (EPS $3.46 vs $3.22 consensus)

    • Microsoft Cloud revenue $42.4 billion, estimate $42.22 billion

    • Intelligent Cloud revenue $26.8 billion, estimate $25.99 billion

    • Azure and other cloud services revenue Ex-FX +33%, estimate +31%

    • Productivity and Business Processes revenue $29.9 billion, estimate $29.65 billion

    • More Personal Computing revenue $13.4 billion, estimate $12.67 billion

    Cloud revenue surged more than expected with revenues of $42.4 billion (above the $42.22 billion consensus),

    “We delivered a strong quarter with Microsoft Cloud revenue of $42.4 billion, up 20% (up 22% in constant currency) year-over-year driven by continued demand for our differentiated offerings,” said Amy Hood, executive vice president and chief financial officer of Microsoft.

    Azure & Other Cloud revenue (es-FX) up 35% (better than the 31% consensus).

    ...AI growth making up 16ppts of that 35% (exp 15.6ppts)...

    “Cloud and AI are the essential inputs for every business to expand output, reduce costs, and accelerate growth," said Satya Nadella, chairman and chief executive officer of Microsoft. 

    “From AI infra and platforms to apps, we are innovating across the stack to deliver for our customers.”

    Operating income was also a solid beat: $32.00 billion, estimate $30.31 billion

    But after 10 consecutive quarters of increased spending for artificial intelligence, the company has put on the brakes.

    While top-line capital expenditure was $16.75 billion vs. $10.95 billion y/y (above the $16.28 billion consensus)

    But, in the first three months of 2025, Microsoft spent $21.4 billion on Capital expenditures including assets acquired under finance leases, down more than $1 billion from the previous quarter (and below the $22.56 billion consensus).

    The company is still on track to spend more than $80 billion on capital expenses in the current fiscal year, which ends in June. But, as The NY Times notes, the pullback, though slight, is an indication that the tech industry’s appetite for spending on A.I. is not limitless.

    As a result of all this, MSFT shares are soaring after hours...

    ...and we can't help but wonder if someone 'knew' about this 'early' given the moves in the market in the last minutes before the bell.

    All eyes now on the call for any signals of a reduction in CapEx (expected at $88 billion for the fiscal year ending in June and $100 billion for the following fiscal year).

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 16:18
  16. Site: The Center for Bioethics and Culture Network
    3 weeks 6 days ago
    Author: CBC-Network

    Good evening, distinguished guests, steadfast supporters, and cherished friends. It’s a joy to stand before you tonight, to celebrate a milestone that feels both monumental and humbling—25 years of the Center for Bioethics and Culture. As we prepare to celebrate not only the longevity and legacy of the CBC, but the important work of Dr. Robbie George, I stand in front of you filled with gratitude- for our dedicated team, our supporters, and everyone here who is celebrating with us. Thank you for joining us to honor this remarkable journey and to chart the course ahead.

    Let’s rewind to the year 2000, when Y2K fears faded but science surged forward —genetic engineering, stem cell research, and assisted reproductive technologies were no longer science fiction but headlines. Terms like “egg donation,” “surrogacy,” and “designer babies” entered the mainstream, often hailed as progress. Amid the enthusiasm of a new millennium, a quiet but profound question emerged: What does it mean to be human in an age where we can reshape life itself? Our founder, Jennifer Lahl, didn’t shy away from that question. Instead, she leaned into it, launching the Center for Bioethics and Culture with a vision as bold as it was compassionate—to ensure that biotechnology serves humanity, not the other way around. When the culture around science and medicine was charging full speed ahead—driven by profit, prestige, and promise—Jennifer paused, looked closer, and asked: “At what cost?”

    From a small spark of one woman’s resolve, the CBC has grown into a global force, tackling issues like euthanasia, surrogacy, egg “donation”, genetic manipulation, and the gender ideology industry. We’ve done so not with fear, but with clarity, reason, and an unshakable belief in the worth of every person. Our mission has never been to halt progress but to ask the hard questions: Who benefits? Who is harmed? And how do we protect the vulnerable in a world that often prioritizes profit over people?

    Over the last 25 years we have witnessed a deep ethical erosion happening beneath the surface of medicine and in our culture celebrating the reduction and erasure of women, treating children as products and science experiments- ordered, delivered, maimed or rejected. But we have not wavered in our mission to work with cultural leaders, decision makers and others, so that progress in biotechnology will unite around a common human good promoting human flourishing. Tonight, you’ll hear first-hand from Dr. Eithain Haim, a young surgeon who stood up to such erosion.

    Before we hear from our award winner and keynote speaker, let me paint a picture of what these 25 years have meant- of what we have accomplished. One of our most powerful tools in educating has always been storytelling. In 2006, we released our first, award-winning documentary Eggsploitation, which peeled back the curtain on the egg “donation” industry – exposing the physical and emotional toll on young women who sell their eggs. That film didn’t just inform—it ignited a movement, giving voice to women who’d been silenced and prompting policy discussions worldwide. Currently, we are working with women around the world who were harmed after traveling to Canada to sell their eggs. These women are pursuing justice through a class action lawsuit. Our second film Breeders: A Subclass of Women?, exposed the human cost of surrogacy. Since that film debuted, we have been the go-to organization for the countless women exploited through surrogacy. Women like Brenda* who was told to abort the twins she was carrying because they had in-utero health complications. Women like Kelly* who wanted to share about her high-risk surrogate pregnancy that ended with a stay in the ICU, 7 blood transfusions, and the loss of her uterus. Women like Emma* who need legal support during their surrogate pregnancy because things didn’t go as planned and her and her children face homelessness or breach of contract. We will continue to amplify the voices of women and children who have been directly affected by third-party reproduction —many of whom are speaking out for the first time.

    In 25 years the CBC has produced eleven original documentary films. Our last three a trilogy of films which courageously navigated the complexities of gender ideology with empathy and truth.

    Our films have reached millions—screened in universities, churches, and parliaments, translated into multiple languages, and shared by people hungry for honest answers. They don’t just educate; they humanize, putting faces and stories to issues too often reduced to soundbites. Film after film, story after story, we’ve asked our audience—and the culture at large—not to look away.

    Our impact goes far beyond the screen. We’ve hosted symposiums, published hundreds of articles, op-eds, policy briefs, educational resources, and reports offering a steady voice in a noisy world and ensuring that ethical considerations are not overshadowed by profit motives or political pressure. We’ve testified before legislatures, advocating for laws that protect rather than exploit. Our team has brought research, compassion, and clarity to rooms where difficult decisions were being made. Whether the issue was commercial surrogacy or puberty blockers, the CBC has consistently been a voice for human dignity and the protection of the most vulnerable. Just this past year, we provided expert testimony in legislative hearings across several states including Minnesota and our nation’s capital and in 2024 we made a permanent mark on the right side of history. The CBC, along with Jordan Peterson, Chloe Cole, Laura Becker, Gays Against Groomers and numerous other detransitioners, scholars, researchers, healthcare providers, and public officials we supported and signed an amicus brief for U.S. v Skrmetti, backing the State of Tennessee’s restrictions on “gender-affirming” care for minors.

    We’ve also hosted podcasts and been podcast guests ourselves. In the last few months, I had the privilege of sitting down with influential voices like Nicole Shanahan, Robert Kennedy’s VP running mate, and Allie Beth Stuckey, host of Relatable with over 1/2 million subscribers. In those conversations, I was able to dive deep into the ethical challenges of surrogacy and assisted reproduction—conversations that reached thousands and sparked meaningful dialogue across diverse audiences.

    Through our Paul Ramsey Award, we’ve honored giants in bioethics—thinkers like Leon Kass Gilbert Meilaender, and Dr. Robbie George—who remind us that rigorous scholarship can coexist with moral courage. Our Paul Ramsey Institute now celebrates over 50 graduates and is growing.

    And let’s not forget the quieter victories—the lives touched one conversation at a time.

    I want to rewind and share a story that captures the heart of our work. In 2013, a young woman named Jessica Kern testified before the Washington, D.C., City Council alongside our founder during debates over a surrogacy bill. Jessica, featured in our film Breeders, had learned at 16 that she was born via surrogacy. She described the pain of feeling like a product, carrying a “price tag” in a system that prioritized adult desires over children’s identities. Her courage to speak out, amplified by our film, challenged lawmakers to consider the human cost of surrogacy and inspired countless others to question the ethics of an industry that often ignores its consequences. Stories like Jessica’s—public yet deeply personal—are the soul of our mission.

    I can think of others, such as the young women who, after watching one of our films, reconsiders her decision to pursue egg selling. I think about the men and women who email me sharing their personal stories and struggles with infertility. One couple recently wrote, “Through your organization we have become increasingly uncomfortable with doing IVF and the ethics with it. We just want to make sure what we are doing is moral, and healthy and helpful for the child and for us.” I think of the policymaker who cites our groundbreaking research on surrogate mothers to draft legislation banning commercial surrogacy in their country. These moments—some public, most quiet—are the threads of a tapestry woven over 25 years, a testament to what’s possible when compassion meets conviction.

    And yet, as we celebrate, we know the road ahead is steep. The challenges we face today are complex. Artificial intelligence is raising questions about personhood and autonomy. Genetic editing technologies like CRISPR and preimplantation genetic testing tempt us with godlike power to design life itself. The fertility industry is inventing new ways to profit off of women and children with little oversight. And debates over gender and identity are reshaping culture, medicine, and law. We are navigating a ship in a culture increasingly confused about what it means to be male, female, embodied, and whole. As I hope I have made clear in the stories I’ve shared, these aren’t abstract issues—they touch real lives, real families, real futures.

    Tonight, I stand here filled with optimism, despite the challenges, because I know the strength of this organization and this community. You- Our supporters. Our donors. Our allies. Our skeptics who asked hard questions and helped sharpen our focus-You have carried us through 25 years of impact.

    Your donations have funded our films, our research, our outreach, and the next generation of scholars through our prestigious Paul Ramsey Institute. Your encouragement has given us the courage to speak truth, even when we might get cancelled. Your prayers and partnership have reminded us we’re not alone. And your presence here tonight is a powerful declaration that you believe in a world where every life is valued, where technology bends toward justice, and where dignity is non-negotiable.

    Now, let’s dream together about the future. Picture a world where no woman is pressured to sell her body or her children for profit. A world where children are welcomed as gifts, not products designed to order. A world where science heals without harming, where the vulnerable are shielded, and where truth cuts through confusion like a lighthouse in a storm. That’s the world CBC is fighting for, and we need your help to build it.

    We dream of expanding our educational reach—creating accessible, thoughtful toolkits for schools, homeschoolers, churches, and communities to navigate complex bioethical issues with clarity and confidence.

    We’ll continue to inform and inspire through compelling films and impactful writing. A new book is on the horizon, and new films are in the works.

    We are developing a digital hub of resources for women and children harmed by Big Fertility, so when someone reaches out after experiencing exploitation or coercion, we can respond with compassion and practical guidance on the path to healing.

    Our work on the ethical, medical, and legal implications of third-party reproduction continues to shape conversations across the globe—crossing ideological divides and cultural boundaries. Because no matter where you live or what you believe, the human longing for dignity, connection, and truth is universal.

    We envision building on this momentum through expanded research and the creation of a CBC Network Research Institute—a dedicated space for rigorous study, data collection, and thought leadership in bioethics.

    At the same time, as laws and policies around the world shift at an unprecedented pace, we recognize the urgent need for a Center for Bioethics and Public Policy—to track these changes, influence outcomes, and ensure that ethics keep pace with technology.

    But dreams don’t become reality without resources. Tonight’s gala is more than a celebration—it’s a call to action. Your generosity will fuel our next chapter. Every dollar you give extends our reach, amplifies our voice, and brings us closer to that better world.

    Let me close with one final story. Alana Newman, featured in our 2011 film Anonymous Father’s Day, grew up knowing she was donor-conceived but struggled with the void of not knowing her biological father. Through her involvement with CBC, she found a platform to share her story and advocate for others like her. After the film’s release, Alana spoke at events and wrote publicly, saying that the film gave her the courage to demand better protections for donor-conceived children, who’s right to know their origins is often ignored. Her voice, amplified by our work, has reached thousands. That’s the ripple effect of our work—one life, one story, one community at a time.

    Twenty-five years ago, we planted a seed. It grew—not because the world was ready for it, but because the world needed it. We will continue to be the voice in the room that says: “Slow down. Ask questions. Consider the cost.” In a culture that often confuses progress with wisdom, we are here to remind people that human beings are not machines. That children are not products. That women’s bodies are not commodities. And that ethics must never be an afterthought—it must be the foundation.

    We are not anti-technology, but we are pro-human. And in today’s landscape, that stance is not only necessary—it’s radical.

    Here’s to another radical 25 years. Your encouragement fuels us. Your questions challenge us. And your presence reminds us that we are not alone.

     

    The post Remarks by CBC Executive Director, Kallie Fell, at the Paul Ramsey Awards Dinner appeared first on The Center for Bioethics & Culture Network.

  17. Site: southern orders
    3 weeks 6 days ago




     

  18. Site: AsiaNews.it
    4 weeks 3 min ago
    On the day of the 50th anniversary of the end of the war in Saigon and the reunification of the country, the experience of the Scalabrinian missionaries who stand by the families arriving in the big city from the countryside.
  19. Site: LifeNews
    4 weeks 20 min ago
    Author: Brian Gibson

    About 75 people attended our Memorial Service outside the Robbinsdale abortion facility April 26 to remember the estimated 60,000 babies who lost their lives there over the past five decades.  We gathered in the backyard of our Chapel of the Innocents right next to the abortion facility, praying, singing hymns and listening to featured speakers.

    One of the speakers, Rev. Paula Ellefson, lost two of her own children there in the mid-1990s.  Her powerful testimony of fear, pain, remorse, repentance, and ultimate redemption and healing by Christ moved the crowd.

    Another powerful testimony was given by Keith Rischer, RN, the pro-lifer who found the 13 aborted babies in the dumpster behind the building in 1987 (whom Pro-Life Action Ministries buried in Resurrection Cemetery in Mendota Heights, Minn.)

    Click Like if you are pro-life to like the LifeNews Facebook page!

    (function(d, s, id) { var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0]; if (d.getElementById(id)) return; js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id; js.src = "//connect.facebook.net/en_US/sdk.js#xfbml=1&version=v2.10"; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }(document, 'script', 'facebook-jssdk'));

    Jennifer Loining, Executive Director, and Ann Taylor, Patient Advocate, of Crystal Women’s Clinic, formerly Robbinsdale Women’s Center, which opened across the street from the Robbinsdale abortion facility in 1992, also spoke, reporting that 4736 babies have been confirmed saved with the help of that pregnancy resource center!  Robert Smith, Associate Pastor of Hope Community Church in Corcoran, told of his experiences leading a father’s group at Robbinsdale Women’s Center.  Hope Community was very involved in praying and picketing outside the Robbinsdale abortion facility in the 1990s.

    In a providential experience similar to what happened during our Jericho March April 13 (even involving the same two sidewalk counselors), a woman showed up at the door of the Robbinsdale abortion facility (closed since the end of December) during our Memorial Service!  She is 8 weeks pregnant and abortion-minded.  She spoke Spanish and the Spanish-speaking sidewalk counselor was able to explain all the help available to her while the other sidewalk counselor retrieved Spanish literature and baby gifts from our cabinet behind our Chapel of the Innocents to give to this young woman.  Please pray that she would recognize God’s hand in our encounter with her that morning and choose life!

    Thank you for all those who came to the Memorial Service and the hundreds of others who have helped save lives at this location over the past many decades!

    LifeNews Note: Brian Gibson is the CEO of Pro-Life Action Minisitres.

    The post Pro-Life Advocates Celebrate Abortion Center’s Closure With Memorial Service appeared first on LifeNews.com.

  20. Site: ChurchPOP
    4 weeks 1 hour ago
    Author: Jacqueline Burkepile

    Have you ever wondered what it takes to become the pope? 

    The pope is the spiritual leader of more than one billion Catholics worldwide. It’s one of the most powerful and influential roles on earth. 

    But what are the official requirements? It’s surprisingly simple, but it’s a long and challenging path.

    Here’s what you should know about how to become the pope:

    You must be a baptized Catholic man of sound mind and willing to accept the role.

    Technically, Canon Law does not require the Pope to be a priest, bishop, or even a cardinal. However, you must become a bishop once elected Pope (if you are not already one). 

    What’s the Usual Path to the Papal Office?

    Any baptized Catholic man can be chosen. However, the cardinals typically choose one of their own. The last time a layman was elected pope was over 500 years ago.

    Here’s the typical journey to the Papacy:

    Become a Priest: Years of discernment and study are required before priestly ordination. Usually, once a young baptized Catholic man becomes a seminarian, he studies for his bachelor’s degree in philosophy or theology, and then a master’s in divinity, and becomes a permanent deacon for one year. You must also be unmarried and take a vow of celibacy.

    Become a Bishop: After serving as a priest, the pope might appoint you as a bishop. You must be at least 35 years old and have been a priest for at least five years. You must also be an expert in Sacred Scripture, Theology, or Canon Law.

    Become a Cardinal: Cardinals are senior church leaders whom the pope appoints. There are 232 cardinals worldwide, 135 of whom will choose the next pope.

    Be Elected by the Cardinals: When a pope retires or dies, the cardinals under the age of 80 gather in Rome at the Sistine Chapel for a conclave, which is a secret meeting to elect the next pope. They vote until a candidate receives a two-thirds majority. This can take days.

    How Does the Papal Election Work?

    Several days before the conclave, the cardinals gather at Saint Peter’s Basilica for an opening Mass to ask the Holy Spirit for guidance in electing a new pope.

    Once the conclave begins, “the cardinal electors process to the Sistine Chapel and take an oath of absolute secrecy before sealing the doors.” The cardinals then write their chosen candidate’s name on a secret ballot and place it in an urn.

    The candidate needs two-thirds of the votes to become pope. If a candidate does not reach two-thirds, the cardinals keep voting. They sometimes vote up to four times per day until someone is elected.

    After each voting session, the ballots are burned and placed in a stove inside the Sistine Chapel. Black smoke from the chimney means no decision; white smoke means they chose a new pope.

    Once elected, the new pope makes his first appearance on the balcony of Saint Peter’s Basilica and announces his papal name.

    Could a Lay Catholic Become Pope?

    Yes. But traditionally, the cardinals choose a fellow cardinal with years of experience in Church leadership. It’s been more than 500 years since a non-cardinal became pope. 

    The Papal Election is Not a Democratic One

    Becoming pope is not a democratic process. You cannot campaign or apply for it like a job. It’s a secret election and hierarchical process. 

    The papacy also typically requires someone with good health and a reputation for holiness and profound leadership. 

    Final fun fact: After a conclave chooses the new pope, he chooses a new name. He can choose a name he likes, but many times, the new pope chooses the previous pope’s name. It’s a sign of respect for tradition.

    Let us pray for the cardinals electing the new pope!

  21. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 hour ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Sour Patch Kids, Oreos, Ritz Demand Slides Across North America, Says Mondelez

    A slowdown in economic activity, combined with growing tariff uncertainty, appears to be curbing consumer appetite for highly processed junk food. The latest trends show a declining demand for sweet snacks in North America as more shoppers shift their spending toward real food, such as meat, vegetables, and eggs. 

    Mondelez International — the maker of Sour Patch Kids, Oreos, Ritz, Toblerone, Cadbury, and other highly processed food brands — reported slower-than-expected sales for the first quarter.

    Organic revenue, which excludes currency fluctuations and one-time items, increased 3.1%, falling short of the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 3.5%. Notably, sales in North America declined during the quarter

    On an earnings call, Mondelez CEO Dirk Van de Put told analysts: "I really do not expect to see a significant improvement in consumer confidence in the near term in the US." 

    "Two, three years ago consumers would easily pay above $4 for a pack of biscuits," Van de Put said adding, "We're now seeing that we need to be below $4 and ideally below $3."

    Mondelez noted that shoppers are beginning to prioritize real food — if that's meat, vegetables, and eggs — over snacks, chips, and candy. Also, lower-income consumers are pivoting towards smaller packages, while higher-income consumers are searching for larger value bundles. 

    Mondelez reiterated its full-year guidance and warned profit will slide 10% this year "due to unprecedented cocoa cost inflation."

    Weighing in on the North American junk food slowdown, Goldman analysts Leah Jordan and Eli Thompson offered clients their first take on Mondelez's first-quarter results and its unchanged full-year outlook:

    1. North America came in softer-than-expected on the back of retailer destocking and softer cracker demand as the consumer remains value-focused;

    2. chocolate elasticity tracked in-line with expectations, although more pricing is still to come; and

    3. MDLZ reiterated its FY25 guide in constant currency while potential upside is likely to be reinvested throughout the year to support potential growth in FY26

    The key takeaway for the North American market:

    • North America softer-than-expected: Organic net sales in North America came in softer-than-expected at -3.6% (vs GS/consensus of flat/+0.1%), largely due to retailer destocking (-250 bps), while segment profitability also missed. The destocking impact should be one time in nature, but we do not expect it to reverse as we have heard from retailers that this effort has been driven by efficiency gains. Additionally, MDLZ noted softer demand for crackers (vs cookies), although both categories are holding up relatively better than other parts of snacking, plus the company is holding share due to investments in price pack architecture and key activations. Additionally, management spoke to increasing promotional activity by peers in crackers, and we see greater private label competition in the category as well. Regarding consumer behavior, the company noted a shift to smaller pack sizes by the lower end and toward multi-packs for upper income cohorts, along with a shift in channels toward dollar stores, clubs, and value retailers.

    Details about the cocoa market:

    • Chocolate elasticity tracking in-line, although more pricing still to come: MDLZ indicated elasticity within chocolate tracked in-line with expectations at -0.5%, while it gained share in the category. However, more pricing will be implemented in the spring with management taking a wait and see approach while expressing confidence in its chocolate strategy with a range of price points. The company expects a top line acceleration throughout the year, supported by both pricing and volumes, with Easter strength noted for 2Q and pricing negotiations are now complete in Europe (vs a disruption last year). By region, management highlighted solid Easter chocolate demand for Europe/UK, Brazil, and Australia, with stable YTD elasticities noted for Europe and Emerging Markets. Notably, MDLZ indicated greater elasticity for chocolate in the U.S. vs ROW with volumes tracking down -5%, which is a negative read-through for HSY.

    Notes on guidance:

    • Reiterated FY25 guide with potential upside expected to be reinvested: MDLZ reiterated its FY25 guidance with an adj EPS decline of -10% (constant currency), noting potential upside would likely be reinvested (e.g., 1Q beat planned to be reinvested in marketing this year), while the tariff impact remains small. FY25 organic sales guidance was also reiterated at +5%, with sequential improvements supported by both volume and pricing. We also expect a gross margin improvement throughout the year tied to its pricing action. Regarding FY26, MDLZ expects EPS growth y/y, but management stopped short on the magnitude of potential ranges given cocoa uncertainty. For cocoa, the company still sees a supply/demand surplus with further demand destruction likely (as some will likely reformulate). Furthermore, the company sounded constructive on its position given lower cocoa butter prices y/y, its bigger input exposure.

    Despite key downside risks, such as an economic slowdown, Goldman analysts remained "Buy" rated on Mondelez, with a 12-month price target of $71. 

    Mondelez did not indicate that the slowdown in junk food demand was influenced by the "Make America Healthy Again" movement in any way (well at least not yet). 

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 14:25
  22. Site: RT - News
    4 weeks 1 hour ago
    Author: RT

    Aleksandar Vucic will set back his bid to join the bloc should he attend Russia’s WWII victory celebration, Brussels has said

    The European Commission (EC) has admitted that it threatened to downgrade Serbia's bid to join the EU if President Aleksandar Vucic visits Moscow’s Victory Day celebrations, as planned, on May 9.

    Russia plans to host a military parade in the center of the capital to mark the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s 1945 triumph over Nazi Germany in World War II. Top EU diplomat Kaja Kallas warned earlier this month that the bloc does not want any member or candidate states attending the event.

    EC Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos met with Vucic on Tuesday and warned that his presence in Moscow would be held against Serbia’s EU aspirations, spokesperson Guillaume Mercier said in a press briefing in Brussels on Wednesday.

    “The participation of President Vucic at the military parade in Moscow will impact” Belgrade’s EU accession process, the EC spokesperson said.

    Read more  Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky during a press conference, April 22, 2025. Zelensky openly threatening Victory Day terrorist attack – Moscow

    “She passed on the message that was shared by many other EU member states that the participation in Moscow will have an impact on the EU path,” he said when asked about what the EU response could be, but declined to elaborate further.

    Serbia should use the occasion to demonstrate its “strategic direction,” Mercier said.

    Earlier this month, Vucic told the press that he had not changed his decision to visit Moscow for the May 9 celebration, where a unit of the Serbian Armed Forces will take part.

    Read more Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Putin’s Victory Day ceasefire offer opens possible direct talks with Kiev – Lavrov

    Moscow has extended numerous invitations to the May 9 celebration, including to China, India, and Brazil, as well as other international leaders. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will miss the event due to  tensions with neighboring Pakistan, but Defense Minister Rajnath Singh is expected to represent New Delhi at the event.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has hailed the courage of European leaders who have chosen to attend and celebrate the memory of the fight against Nazism, despite pressure from Brussels.

  23. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 2 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Waste Of The Day: Houston Superintendent Gets Bonus After "D" Grade

    Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

    Topline: The Houston Independent School District is facing a budget deficit that at one point reached $250 million, but that did not stop Superintendent Mike Miles from accepting a $126,730 bonus in April to supplement his $380,000 salary.

    Key facts: Miles’ bonus was calculated after he received a 66.7 out of 100 on his first annual evaluation from the school board that measured student performance, “executive leadership” and “vision,” according to the Houston Chronicle. A perfect score would have netted Miles a $190,000 bonus.

    The school district has struggled with funding for years, as have other large school districts in Texas. The state government has not increased public school funding since 2019 to keep pace with inflation, and yet some of Houston’s struggles come simply from overspending. Cumulative inflation from 2019 to 2024 in the U.S. was 22%, but Houston ISD increased its payroll by 29% in that timespan, according to OpenTheBooks’ database

    Last year the school released an audit detailing “overtime abuse” that forced the district to pay $26 million in one year. Auditors also found an “overreliance on purchased services” and “overuse of consultants with several other costs to overall effectiveness.”

    The district began the current school year with a $125 million deficit, but Miles asked the school board to approve an amendment that increased spending and ballooned the deficit to $250 million, forcing the district to dig into its reserves and one-time savings.

    Next year the district projects a $33 million deficit after laying off 1,500 employees. Miles is also considering closing some school buildings to cut costs.

    Search all federal, state and local government salaries and vendor spending with the AI search bot, Benjamin, at OpenTheBooks.com

    Supporting quote: Miles told the school’s community advisory committee, “I assure you, that bonus and incentive was well deserved, and I know my value, and achievement results show that.”

    Critical quote: The Houston Chronicle’s editorial board equated Miles’ 66.7 evaluation score to a “D,” claiming that “It’s a lousy grade. The kind you bury at the bottom of your backpack in hopes it disappears before somebody sees. That's essentially what the district tried to do. Chronicle reporters had to file a public information request to get a copy of the evaluation.”

    Summary: Houston is far from the only school district giving its superintendent a generous bonus, but a fiscal crisis — and a “D” grade — is not the time to do it. 

    The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

    *  *  *

    You can support ZeroHedge by picking up a waxed canvas hat!

    Click hat... add to cart... check out... receive awesome hat...

     

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 14:05
  24. Site: RT - News
    4 weeks 2 hours ago
    Author: RT

    Douglas Emhoff is reportedly among several appointees of former President Joe Biden removed from the institution’s board

    Douglas Emhoff, the husband of former US Vice President Kamala Harris, has criticized the administration of President Donald Trump for what he describes as “politicizing” the Holocaust.

    In a post on X on Tuesday, Emhoff said he had been informed of his removal from the US Holocaust Memorial Council, describing the move as a political decision that turned “one of the worst atrocities in history into a wedge issue.”

    According to the New York Times, Emhoff is among several appointees of former US President Joe Biden dismissed from the council. Their appointments, announced in January, typically carry five-year terms. The council was created by Congress in 1980 to oversee the museum which opened in 1993 to commemorate the Holocaust.

    The White House Presidential Personnel Office reportedly emailed council members on Tuesday on behalf of President Trump, stating their positions were “terminated, effective immediately.” Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the president “looks forward” to appointing members who will honor Holocaust victims and be “steadfast supporters of the State of Israel.”

    Read more US President Donald Trump walks to the Oval Office after landing aboard Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on April 27, 2025 in Washington, DC. Trump rules out third term

    In a similar move, Trump announced in February that he would end the terms of multiple members of the Kennedy Center board and make himself chair of a new board.

    The Holocaust Museum did not mention the firings in its Tuesday statement, saying it looks forward to advancing its mission “in partnership with the Trump administration.”

    The development comes as Harris, who lost the race for president in November, is set to deliver a ‘call to action’ speech on Wednesday at the Emerge 20th anniversary gala in San Francisco, which will urge activists to speak out against Trump, according to CNN.

    Democrats are reportedly watching Harris for signs she may run again in 2028. Trump has ruled out seeking a third term, despite previously hinting at the possibility on multiple occasions. In an interview with The Atlantic published on Monday marking his first 100 days in office, he said bypassing the constitutional limit in 2028 would be a “hard thing to do.”

  25. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 2 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Sen. Josh Hawley Introduces PELOSI Act To Stop Insider-Trading

    Via American Greatness,

    Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) has reintroduced the “Preventing Elected Leaders from Owning Securities and Investments” (PELOSI) Act that would prohibit members of Congress and their families from trading stocks while in office.

    The name of the act is a direct nod in the direction of 20 term Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) whose net worth has soared from $160,000 when she was first elected in 1987 to more than $140 million in 2024.

    The bill to ban congressional stock trading is entitled the PELOSI Act, or "Preventing Elected Leaders from Owning Securities and Investments."

    I usually don't like cute names for pieces of legislation, but this one hit the nail on the head. Bravo.

    Pass it!! pic.twitter.com/pN8nicKJRx

    — Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) April 29, 2025

    Pelosi’s husband Paul, who narrowly survived a hammer attack 2022, is an investor who has made significant financial gains on stock trades that some speculate may have been based on insider information.

    Hawley first introduced the PELOSI Act in 2023 but it failed to gain traction under the Biden administration.

    Since then, the proposal has gained support on both sides of the congressional aisle and Fox News reports that President Trump has said he would “absolutely” sign the ban if it arrives on his desk.

    Hawley has been a consistent critic of members of Congress being more focused on day-trading than they are on representing their constituents.

    In a statement, Hawley said, “Americans have seen politician after politician turn a profit using information not available to the general public. It’s time we ban all members of Congress from trading and holding stocks and restore Americans’ trust in our nation’s legislative body.”

    The PELOSI Act would prohibit lawmakers and their spouses from purchasing, selling or holding stocks during the time that the lawmaker is in office.

    Lawmakers would still be able to invest in U.S. Treasury Bonds, diversified mutual funds or exchange-traded funds while in office.

    Should the PELOSI Act be signed into law, current members of Congress would have 180 days to comply with newly elected members being required to comply with in 180 days of entering office.

    Lawmakers who violate the act would be required to hand over their profits to the U.S. Treasury Department and could also face fines of up to 10% on each transaction.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 13:25
  26. Site: RT - News
    4 weeks 2 hours ago
    Author: RT

    Sectarian clashes between government-linked armed groups and Druze fighters have broken out near Damascus

    The Israel Defense Force (IDF) has launched a drone strike against an “extremist group” in Syria. In a joint statement Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz called the attack a “warning operation” aimed at preventing violence against a Syrian Druze minority.

    The strike targeted a “gathering of an extremist group that was preparing to continue its attack on the Druze population” in Syria, according to the Times of Israel. IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir has reportedly ordered troops to further target Syrian government sites “if the violence against the Druze does not stop.”

    Clashes between the Syrian government-linked armed groups and Druze fighters have erupted around Damascus, according to AFP.

    At least 11 people were killed as “outlaw groups targeted civilians and security forces” in the Damascus suburb of Sahnaya on Wednesday, just a day after similar clashes claimed 17 lives in Jaramana, a mainly Druze and Christian suburb, according to the news agency.

    Read more FILE PHOTO. Druze men Syrian village asks to be annexed by Israel – media

    The new Syrian authorities are dealing with tensions following sectarian violence in the coastal Latakia province, mostly targeting Alawites and Christians, that reportedly claimed 1,000 lives.

    The violence prompted the US and Russia to denounce the persecution of Syrian minority groups, while the EU blamed “pro-Assad elements” attacking “interim government forces.”

    Syria’s Interior Ministry has claimed the Israeli strike killed one member of the Syrian national security force, deployed to the area to stop clashes between armed groups, according to Reuters. The Syrian SANA news agency confirmed the Israeli strike but provided no information on any casualties.

    Druze are a minority religious group that follows an offshoot of Islam and makes up 3% of Syria’s population. Some Druze in southern Syria asked for Israeli protection, calling it the “lesser evil” after the ousting of Bashar Assad in December following a surprise insurgency by Islamist forces.

  27. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 3 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Oil Plunges On Report Saudis Bracing For Price War, Can "Live With Lower Oil Prices"

    It had already been a miserable month for oil, which has suffered its worst monthly performance since 2021 and also is on pace for its month of April on record... and then it got even worse when shortly before noon ET, when Reuters reported, citing multiple sources, that Saudi Arabian officials are briefing allies and industry experts to say the kingdom is unwilling to prop up the oil market with further supply cuts and can handle a prolonged period of low prices.

    This shift in Saudi policy could suggest a move toward producing more and expanding its market share, a major change after five years spent balancing the market through deep output as a leader of the OPEC+ group of oil producers. Those cuts had supported prices, in turn bolstering the oil export revenue that many oil producers rely on, but many OPEC+ members - most notably Kazakhstan - took advantage of the production restraint and blew away through their export quotas, infuriating other cartel members.

    Sure enough, Reuters notes that Riyadh has been angered by Kazakhstan and Iraq producing above their OPEC+ targets. And after pushing members to adhere to those targets and to compensate for oversupply in recent months, a frustrated Riyadh is changing tack, OPEC+ sources said.

    Saudi Arabia pushed for a larger-than-planned OPEC+ output hike in May, a decision that helped send oil prices below $60 a barrel to a 4-year low.

    And now that Kazahkstan blew it for all cartel members, everyone will share the pain equally, as lower prices are bad news for producers that rely on oil exports to fund their economies. Although producers like Saudi have a very low cost of production, they need higher oil prices to pay for government spending. When oil prices fall, many large oil-producing countries come under pressure to cut their budgets.

    And just to confirm that they are not bluffing, the Saudis appear to be briefing allies and experts that they are ready to do just that. The last time they did just that was in March 2020, just before covid shut down the global economy and briefly sent oil prices negative, sparking budget crises across all OPEC members.

    Saudi officials in recent weeks have told allies and market participants the kingdom can live with the fall in prices by raising borrowing and cutting costs, the five sources said.

    "The Saudis are ready for lower prices and may need to pull back on some major projects," one of the sources said. All sources declined to be named due to sensitivity of the issue.

    The problem is that Saudi Arabia needs oil prices above $90 to balance its budget, higher than other large OPEC producers such as the United Arab Emirates, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As a result, Riyadh may need to delay or cut back some projects due to the price drop, analysts have said.

    OPEC+, which besides the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also includes allies such as Russia, may decide to speed up output hikes again in June, OPEC+ sources have said. OPEC+ is cutting output by over 5 million barrels or 5% of global supply, to which Saudi Arabia is contributing two-fifths.

    Russia, the second largest exporter in OPEC+ behind Saudi Arabia, is aware of Riyadh's plans for faster output increases, said two of the five sources who are familiar with the Russian thinking and conversations with Riyadh. Even so, Russia would prefer the group stick to slower output increases.

    Saudi Arabia and Russia, the de facto leaders of OPEC+, make the biggest contributions to OPEC+ cuts. Russia's budget balances at about $70 a barrel and the Kremlin's spending is on the rise due to the Russian war in Ukraine.
    Russia may see a further fall in revenue as prices for its discounted, sanctioned oil could fall below $50 a barrel as a result of OPEC+ output rises, one of the two sources said.

    Theories on the apparent change in Saudi strategy range from punishing OPEC+ members exceeding their quotas to a move to fight for market share after ceding ground to non-OPEC+ producers such as the United States and Guyana. Higher output may also be a fillip to U.S. President Donald Trump, who has called for OPEC to boost output to help keep U.S. gasoline prices down.

    Trump is due to visit Saudi Arabia in May and could offer Riyadh an arms package and a nuclear agreement. OPEC+ decided to triple its planned output increase to 411,000 bpd.

    That still leaves OPEC+ holding back more than 5 million bpd, curbs the group aims to unwind by the end of 2026. 

    "We would still call this a 'managed' unwind of cuts and not a fight for market share," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

    “This confirms the market’s fears that Saudi Arabia’s accelerated unwinds were not temporary, but a long-term strategy shift,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. It raises the question of whether “Saudi is going to repeat the 2020 playbook to dramatically increase production.”

    For now the market is voting "yes", and the news sent WTI tumbling as much as 4%,or more than $2 to just under $58, the lowest price since early 2021 (and a level which was only briefly breached after Trump's Liberation Day sent oil to $55 before rebounding rapidly).

    OPEC+ rocked the crude market in early April, with a surprise decision to increase supply in May by 411,000 barrels a day, the equivalent of three monthly tranches from a previous plan. Morgan Stanley has said it expects a “meaningful surplus” to develop over time, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. warned the cartel may accelerate planned production increases at a meeting next week.

    Beyond OPEC+, non-cartel nations are also expected to add supplies, including drillers in Canada and Guyana, feeding concerns about a global glut.

    At the same time, hopes are fading that there will be quick breakthroughs in US-led trade negotiations, weighing on the outlook for energy demand. The US economy contracted for the first time since 2022 in the first quarter as a result of a surge in pre-tariff imports and softer consumer spending. In China, factory activity slipped into the worst contraction since December 2023, revealing early damage from the trade war.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 13:08
  28. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 3 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Appeals Court Upholds Restrictions On Deportations Of Venezuelans From US

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A federal appeals court on April 29 turned down the Trump administration’s bid to block restrictions on deporting Venezuelans from Colorado.

    Venezuelan illegal immigrants deported from the United States disembark from a Conviasa Airlines plane upon arrival at Simon Bolivar International Airport in Maiquetia, Venezuela, on March 24, 2025. Juan Barreto/AFP via Getty Images

    The government did not show that it is likely to be irreparably harmed if a lower court order remains in place, a unanimous three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit ruled.

    Under court precedent, a party seeking a stay pending appeal must show it will likely be irreparably harmed absent a stay.

    U.S. District Judge Charlotte N. Sweeney recently issued a temporary restraining order requiring the Trump administration to give Venezuelans arrested for alleged links to the Tren de Aragua gang three weeks’ notice before deportation.

    The order applies to all noncitizens in Colorado who were, are, or will be subject to President Donald Trump’s March invocation of the Alien Enemies Act. The president at the time said that Tren de Aragua had invaded the United States, and he directed officials to arrest and deport its members.

    All members of the class are in federal custody. And given the important unresolved issues under the Alien Enemies Act (AEA) and the ruling of the United States Supreme Court that no one in that proceeding be removed under the AEA until further order of that Court ... there is no realistic possibility that the government could remove any member of the class from this country before final expiration of the TRO on May 6, 2025,” the 10th Circuit panel stated.

    Lawyers for the government and the plaintiffs in the case did not respond to early morning requests for comment.

    Four factors must be met to secure a stay pending appeal. The appeals court did not address the other three factors, which include presenting a strong showing that a party is likely to succeed in the case since the irreparable harm standard was not met, the judges said.

    The panel consisted of U.S. Circuit Judges Harris L. Hartz, Gregory A. Phillips, and Joel M. Carson.

    Government lawyers had said in filings that Sweeney lacked jurisdiction to halt deportations because the plaintiffs were not in custody at the time of the ruling. Immigration and Customs Enforcement had released the plaintiffs because it determined they were not subject to the Alien Enemies Act.

    The lawyers also argued that the restraining order “irreparably harms the United States’ conduct of foreign policy” because it “usurps the President’s statutory and constitutional authority to address what he has identified as an invasion or predatory incursion.”

    Attorneys representing the Venezuelans had said in response that the restraining order was proper because the government had been giving people arrested under the invocation just 24 hours’ notice of removal, which they said did not achieve due process.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 13:05
  29. Site: RT - News
    4 weeks 3 hours ago
    Author: RT

    The joint strike comes after an alleged US attack on a detention center holding African migrants that reportedly killed dozens

    The UK has begun to support the US in attacking Yemen’s Houthi militia. The British Ministry of Defense said on Wednesday its forces had conducted joint airstrikes against what it claimed was a Houthi-controlled military facility.

    The development came against the backdrop of Houthi-linked reports stating that another US attack hit a migrant detention center, resulting in dozens of civilian deaths. At least 68 African migrants were killed in the strike on the facility on Monday, the militia’s Al Masirah TV Channel reported, adding that 47 people were injured. A US defense official said that the nation’s military were aware of the claims about civilian casualties.

    US President Donald Trump launched a large-scale air and naval strike campaign against Yemen-based Houthi targets last month to protect shipping in the Red Sea from Houthi attacks.

    According to London, Royal Air Force (RAF) Typhoon fighter jets and US warplanes struck a “cluster of buildings” located about fifteen miles south of the capital, Sanaa, on Tuesday. The facility was reportedly used by the Houthis to manufacture drones for attacks on ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

    Read more  US Navy personnel in front of a F-18 Hornet fighter jet onboard the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman. US Navy loses warplane during ‘Houthi attack’ – media

    The Houthis have been targeting vessels they associate with Israel as part of a strategy to pressure West Jerusalem over its military operations in Gaza. Israel launched its campaign following a deadly raid by the Palestinian militant group Hamas in October 2023.

    The rebel group controls western Yemen, including the capital and the strategic port of Hodeidah. In support of the Palestinians in Gaza, the Houthis have launched kamikaze drones and missiles at commercial ships and fired ballistic missiles at Israel. They have stated they will halt their attacks once Israel ends its campaign against Hamas.

    President Trump has instructed the Pentagon to intensify strikes in Yemen, warning that the Houthis will be “completely annihilated” if they do not stop targeting shipping in the Red Sea.

  30. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 4 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    The Spanish Power Outage: A Catastrophe Created By Political Design & A Warning To The World

    Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

    On April 23rd, I participated in a conference at the European Parliament on the future of nuclear energy with experts from all over Europe, where I warned that, with the current energy policies, blackouts will be the norm, not a coincidence.

    The shortsighted and sectarian policy of the activists who populate the government has led us to the worst blackout in the history of Spain. We have been without communication or electricity for nearly eleven hours.

    This blackout, with the immediate collapse of fifteen gigawatts of power in the system, is the consequence of a policy that penalizes base energy, key to providing stability to the system, and plunders the energy sector.

    Governments have been dedicated to closing nuclear power plants, making them unviable with abusive and confiscatory taxation; penalizing investment in distribution with absurd regulations; imposing a volatile and intermittent energy mix; and burdening energy with elevated taxes and administrative delays. What could go wrong? Everything.

    And it happened.

    Renewable energies, while essential in a balanced energy mix, cannot provide safety and stability due to their volatility and intermittent nature. That’s why it is essential to have a balanced system with base-load energy that operates all the time, such as hydropower, nuclear, and natural gas as backup.

    Destroying access to nuclear energy with unnecessary closures and confiscatory taxation has been part of the fundamental causes of the disaster and the blackout.

    Last week, they had to close the remaining nuclear power plants because their taxes are so high that they cannot cover their fixed costs. They have destroyed nuclear plants’ economics by political design. Moreover, those plants would have provided stability to the grid if national and regional governments, which use nuclear and hydroelectric power as cash cows for their revenue-hungry policies, had prioritized supply security over energy sectarianism.

    There is much more.

    Spain and Portugal produce electricity with more than 60% solar and wind energy. Hydraulic, nuclear, and combined cycle gas plants must cover the shortfalls in solar and wind production, which is intermittent. There is no possibility of having a stable and secure system with a continuous supply if the electrical grid is not balanced to avoid a total blackout.
    According to Euronews, France sometimes produces too much electricity, leading the network operator RTE to disconnect solar or wind sites. The consumer pays taxes to cover the operator’s losses. This procedure prevents a general blackout of the grid.”

    In Spain, the president of Red Eléctrica, Beatriz Corredor, whose experience in energy is more than scarce, has never given a message or coordinated actions to prevent blackouts that were happening more frequently recently. We have been experiencing sporadic supply cuts to the industry for years, and just a week ago, the Chamartín station had a severe supply cut episode.

    The crisis was not only a disaster due to the shortsighted energy policy of the current and previous governments. It was a disaster due to the inaction of the Ministry of Defence. Similar to the recent floods, our security forces exhibited astonishment at their lack of mobilization. Trains and elevators blocked thousands of travelers for hours, while the army stood by, waiting for orders.

    Six days ago, the government, left-wing parties, and many media outlets celebrated that Spain’s power grid ran entirely on renewable energy for a weekday for the first time. Bravo. A week later, a massive blackout in Spain, Portugal, and parts of France. France quickly restored electricity because it has the largest nuclear fleet in Europe. In Spain, the government maintained a confiscatory taxation system that prevented nuclear plants from operating, resulting in nearly eleven hours of darkness and no communication.

    Red Eléctrica reported that the cause was a “strong oscillation in the electrical grid” that “forced the Iberian Peninsula to disconnect from the European system”. The collapse was immediate and long-lasting. It was the longest power outage in the history of Spain. The recovery efforts were in vain as they attempted to restore frequency control and stability with a system dependent on volatile and intermittent renewables.

    A system without physical inertia, provided by baseload energies that operate all the time—nuclear and hydroelectric—makes it impossible to stabilise the grid in the face of supply disruptions.

    When the collapse occurred, the Spanish electrical grid had almost 80% renewable generation, 11% nuclear, and only 3% natural gas. There was practically no base generation or physical inertia to absorb the shock that was generated.

    For years, experts have issued warnings. Experts from around the world have been accused of being mouthpieces for invented lobbies when they warned of the risk to the system from overloading with renewables and eliminating or limiting base-load energies. In 2017, the European Network of Transmission System Operators warned that the increase in renewables would raise the risk of cascading failures if urgent investment was not made in synthetic inertia and storage technologies. Moreover, even if investment is made in storage, hundreds of experts warned about the additional burden with the electrification of the mobile fleet. Despite the warnings from energy companies and operators, the European Commission maintained its bet on renewable development that was poorly planned and worse executed. This included a New Green Deal that ignored the importance of networks and backup and seemed designed by school activists.

    The Spanish government wanted to present itself as the top student of that so-called ecological sectarianism, which ignores copper and lithium mining, the importance of backup, and system stability. What have they achieved? They have created a disaster that has the potential to repeat itself.

    Blackouts, which should have been something obsolete and forgotten, have become the norm since politicians have ideologised energy. Other countries have suffered similar problems: Australia (2016), Germany (2017), and the United Kingdom (2019) experienced blackouts or near-blackouts due to insufficient energy reserves or grid stability measures. However, none of these incidents have been as dramatic or scandalous as the one in Spain.

    The governments of Spain have decided that the closure of all our nuclear power plants will be effective in 2035, despite all the technicians reminding us that they work perfectly and their lifespan could be extended by at least ten years. This action is going to increase dependence on renewables and Russian natural gas. In other words, Spain’s shortsighted policy is going to make the country more dependent on China and Russia for energy and face constant blackouts and supply cuts to the industry as if it were a third-world dictatorship.

    Propaganda told us that renewables would bring competitiveness and stability to the grid, but the reality shows that an over-reliance on certain renewables and a shortage of base-load energy sources indicate that the electrical grid increasingly depends on the few nuclear and natural gas plants that operate to maintain supply stability.

    The blackout in Spain was not caused by a cyberattack but by the worst possible attack, that of politicians against their citizens.

    It is urgent that Spain radically changes its energy strategy, that we maintain and expand the nuclear and base energy park, or we will depend more on Russia and China and, moreover, with blackouts.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 11:45
  31. Site: RT - News
    4 weeks 4 hours ago
    Author: RT

    The North Korean leader has said the move would help defend state and maritime sovereignty

    North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has called to accelerate arming the country’s navy with nuclear weapons, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on Wednesday.

    Kim made the statement while attending a weapons system test of the DPRK’s Choe Hyon multi-mission destroyer ship. After witnessing the demonstration, he is said to have noted that the warship’s firepower still relies on conventional weaponry and “cannot be called a reliable means of maritime defense.”

    It is “high time to make a responsible option for accelerating the nuclearization of the Navy in order to defend the state and its maritime sovereignty from existing and future threats,” Kim announced, according to KCNA.

    Russia has also pledged to help protect North Korea if such a need arises. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters earlier this week that the defense agreement between Moscow and Pyongyang is still “in effect.” The deal obligates both parties to provide immediate military assistance to each other if necessary.

    The partnership treaty was signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kim in June 2024 after which North Korean troops officially joined Moscow’s military operation aimed at repelling a Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region.

    READ MORE: White House preparing for possible Trump-Kim talks – Axios

    Putin has since expressed gratitude to Pyongyang’s soldiers for the role they played in liberating the region and noted that they had demonstrated a great deal of’ “heroism, high level of specialized training and bravery.”

  32. Site: RT - News
    4 weeks 4 hours ago
    Author: RT

    The catastrophic electricity outage in Spain and Portugal earlier this week should serve as a wake-up call for the bloc’s officials

    It was probably the weather that triggered the ten-hour breakdown of all utilities on the Iberian Peninsula earlier this week.

    It was also the weather that has turned Germany into Europe’s top CO2 emitter. There are days when the sun does not shine, and the wind does not blow. And then the backup is coal in the absence of nuclear power or natural gas (from Russia).

    The issue is transmission, not generation, of energy

    An even bigger threat to the grid, however, stems from overproduction of electricity due to too much sun and wind. Both Spain and Germany proudly point out their statistics in terms of power generation based on huge onshore and offshore wind farms and extensive photovoltaic panels, often constructed on precious arable soil. Spain and Portugal are champions of green energy in the EU, and were sourcing 80 percent of their electricity from renewables just before the outage hit on Monday. 

    The larger underlying problem is in transmitting rather than generating electricity. Large parts of the existing grids in the EU were constructed in the 1950 and 1960s, when it was fairly easy to build infrastructure in the post-war towns. When Angela Merkel announced her ambitious energy transition, Peter Altmaier, the head of the Chancellor’s office announced the building of several thousands of kilometers of “electricity highways” (Strom Autobahnen). The slated budget was one trillion euros. But that budget was never established and nobody in Merkel’s government calculated the years for administrative planning and implementation.

    So, the new grid was never built, neither in Germany nor elsewhere. The current grid is not made for to absorb constantly increasing volumes. The “electrification” of all forms of energy production and consumption, above all in mobility, poses a serious problem for the stability of the existing grids. Electric vehicles were supposed to replace cars with the traditional internal combustion engines. The hype surrounding the electric car has already died down. Customers simply refrain from buying an electric car. But the ambitious green agendas rarely take into account serious investments and above all solid timeframes for an enlarged electrical grid.

    Read more Entrance of metro is blocked as a widespread power outage strikes Spain and Portugal around midday Monday while the causes are still unknown in Madrid, Spain on April 28, 2025. Massive blackout hits EU countries

    The European electrical grid stretches from Türkiye across the European continent to North Africa. Its technical name is Continental European Synchronous Area, and it is vulnerable. It is fed with an alternating current with a frequency of approximately 50 Hertz. In case of an overload, as probably happened on Monday in Spain, the risk is high that the frequency is destabilised. In order to pre-empt a power cut, since power plants will automatically shut down, the overload is sent abroad. Some voices claim that the Iberian Peninsula lacks interconnectors, while others warn against more interconnectors since this would only put the entire grid at risk, a domino blackout across more than 30 countries.

    In 2012, the Austrian writer Marc Elsberg published his thriller “Blackout.” The plot describes a fictional 13-day power outage and the ensuing total breakdown of life as we know it. In the well-researched book, the blackout is caused by a cyber-attack. Many commentators eagerly suggested that one was behind the real-world crisis on Monday. Apparently, no one is ready to discuss the problem with the grid and green deal ambitions.

    Attending energy conferences for years and teaching the topic of geopolitics of energy, I often wondered about the romantic fantasy models that Brussels officials and other climate experts presented.  For the last 15 years, we witness an inflationary concept of “energy transition” or even worse, zero-carbon economy. Throughout the entire EU we have seen a focus on climate change. The approach lacks a solid energy policy, one which covers security in supply, affordability, and investments into grids.

    New vulnerability due to the boom of renewables

    I expected a major blackout to happen in Germany, rather than on the Iberian Peninsula.

    The so-called energy transition declared by the Angela Merkel government in spring 2011 did not deliver at all. In the first quarter of 2025, instead of more electricity from wind and sun, more electricity was generated from coal and gas. Easter week also showed why the so-called energy transition is causing problems.

    Despite the record expansion of wind and solar power, renewables are producing less electricity than at any time since 2021. Compared to the first quarter of last year, the amount of electricity produced by renewables in the same period this year fell by 16 percent.

    The wind was not particularly strong in February and March. Electricity production from offshore wind turbines fell by a total of 31 percent, while production on land fell by 22 percent. As a result, electricity production from coal, oil, and gas had to be drastically increased. The logical consequence: CO2 emissions have risen dramatically. Electricity in Germany was dirtier than it had been since the winter of 2018.

    Read more Madrid, Spain, April 28, 2025 Spain declares state of emergency after nationwide blackout

    However, it is not only in the medium term that the energy transition is not doing what its supporters believe it should. Easter week exemplifies all the problems associated with the plan to switch Germany’s energy production to mainly wind and solar.

    On a sunny Easter Sunday, for example, the five million or so solar installations in Germany produced far more electricity than would have been needed to cover demand during the holiday.

    However, electricity must be consumed exactly when it is produced, otherwise the electricity grid may be disrupted. This applies both nationally and to the local electricity grids on site and the regional capacities of the weather-dependent energy sources.

    Due to the gigantic oversupply – 15 gigawatts too much, the output of a dozen average nuclear power plants – the price of electricity has fallen into negative territory at times, as low as -5 cents per kilowatt-hour. Germany has paid the French, Belgians etc. millions of euros to buy Germany’s surplus electricity so that the German electricity grids do not collapse.

    However, this blatant surplus of electricity has not only meant that a lot of electricity has had to be sold abroad for a fee and lines to France and Belgium have had to operate at full capacity, there have also been numerous power outages in south-west Germany in particular, which could be linked to the oversupply and local grid overload.

    The real drama is that the numerous solar plants in Germany cannot be controlled, regulated or even taken off the grid when electricity production exceeds demand. If there is a lot of sunshine – possibly accompanied by a lot of wind – on an afternoon with low electricity demand, Germany has increasing problems getting rid of the surplus energy.

    This not only increases the potential for regional power outages and so-called “brownouts,” it also greatly increases the cost of electricity production overall – as Easter has shown.

    The Siemens disaster

    Storing electricity is a fundamental problem that has not been solved. Big companies like Siemens experimented for more than a decade with steam engines transforming electricity produced by windmills into hydrogen, in order to stock and transport it. Those experiments did not result in a viable commercial business model. Meanwhile Siemens, once upon a time in the 1960s a leader in nuclear technology, has abandoned its entire energy branch.

    In 2020, the energy division was separated from Siemens. However, Siemens Energy ambitiously wanted to grow in the wind energy business and merged with the Spanish company Gamesa. But just three years later, it was clear that this would not work. Were the reasons additional management mistakes, was it Chinese competition or were there other issues?

    Read more Madrid, Spain, April 28, 2025 Spain opens probe into major power grid failure

    Siemens Energy turned from a beacon of hope to a stock market nightmare. New bad news came from quarter to quarter. It was the wind power business, of all things, that slipped deeper and deeper into deficit. The Managing Board of Siemens Energy had to lower its forecasts countless times, and Siemens lost lots of money with its mergers in Spain. If the management had stamina, they would investigate thoroughly the power outage of last Monday and publish the conclusions. What happened in Spain and Portugal could happen at any moment in Germany and Austria.

    Twenty-five years ago, I was involved in the municipal council of the village where I lived in Austria until 2020, when I was forced to quit. We had worked on emergency scenarios for a blackout. One item was to organize “islands of infrastructure” in military barracks and other buildings. The plan was that in case of emergency, people would be able to walk there and be provided with food, water, and first aid.  In those days, there was still a generation of leaders who were hands-on and who knew how to get things done. Later I realized that this generation of men and women had passed away. In today’s EU, any such crisis would probably lead to a humanitarian disaster, to a total breakdown of public order. 

    I remember well the blackout that hit Northern Italy in 2003 and another one in the US; both were protracted and citizens were left in the dark and cold. In war-torn Iraq, people were wondering how those Western armies and NGOs would ever build up the electricity after the US invasion since they were unable to do it back home.

    Having lived in Lebanon until the summer of 2023, I am fully aware of constant power cuts and know the nuisance of running one’s own generator, the bad smell, and the noise of all the generators around. But diesel can provide a regular flow of electricity, which no solar panel can do. But thanks to affordable Chinese solar panels, nearly every household in Lebanon has one.

    Good old diesel generator

    Interestingly, hospitals in Spain and Portugal continued to provide services thanks to their diesel generators. Emergency operations could be done and intensive care was secured. But what about the internet and mobile phone providers? The entire system of mobile communication broke down. Even speeches by the heads of governments could be watched abroad but not by concerned citizens.

    Read more FILE PHOTO. Is the EU finally coming to its senses on Russian energy?

    I sometimes joked with my Lebanese friends that they should do crash courses for EU institutions on how to live without a regular supply of electricity. Using common sense, keeping good relations with one’s neighbors and knowing how to handle a diesel generator are certainly helpful. And where does the diesel come from? Yes, Russian oil companies used to provide huge volumes of diesel to their EU customers. The Rosneft refinery of Schwedt close to Berlin was confiscated by the German authorities in 2022.

    The back-up for all those renewable efforts used to be natural gas, mostly from Russia, termed the “energy of transition.” There was a consensus that cooperating on oil and gas within the European continent was of benefit to both sellers and buyers. These days are gone.

    What happened on Monday on the Iberian Peninsula was another wake-up call. But so far EU officials seem stuck in their green agenda. They could have understood previous signals, but they refused to do so. In the EU, energy has become an ideological topic and is no longer a technical matter. What Spain and Portugal went through earlier this week lasted for about 10 hours, and I expect more such incidents. One can handle it in a country like Lebanon, but the question remains: can one run an industry with constant power cuts? Deindustrialisation inside the EU will only accelerate. If one day, certain countries would like to buy Russian gas again, the volumes will be much smaller due to more limited industrial production.

  33. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 5 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    The Gold Rush You Weren't Supposed To Notice & The Next Big Monetary Reset

    Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

    Last year, central banks purchased approximately 34 million ounces of gold, marking the third consecutive year of near-record buying.

    We’re witnessing the acceleration of a long-term trend that began around the 2008 financial crisis, when central banks shifted from net sellers to net buyers of gold. That trend has exploded in recent years, with gold purchases surging to record-breaking levels, as shown in the chart below.

    All signs indicate that 2025 will be another massive year for central bank gold buying.

    Central banks and governments are the largest single holders of gold in the world. Together, they officially own over 1.2 billion troy ounces—out of the 6.9 billion ounces humans have mined throughout history.

    However, these are just the official numbers that governments report. The actual gold holdings could be much higher, as governments tend to be secretive about their reserves, treating gold as a strategic financial asset.

    Russia and China—the US’s top geopolitical rivals—have been the biggest gold buyers over the last two decades.

    It’s no secret that China has been stashing away as much gold as possible for many years.

    China is the world’s largest producer and buyer of gold. Russia is number two. Most of that gold enters the Chinese and Russian government’s vaults.

    The trend of central bank gold accumulation is gaining momentum. If the rest of the world is moving back toward gold, the US will not want to be left behind.

    Yet, officially, the US has not added a single ounce to its 261 million ounces of gold reserves in decades.

    Unofficially? That may be a different story.

    Since Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election last November, a sudden flood of physical gold has flowed into the US from major gold hubs like London, Switzerland, and elsewhere.

    The gold market is typically dominated by paper trading, with large-scale physical deliveries being rare. However, CNBC and the World Gold Council report that more than 19 million ounces—possibly much more—of physical gold has entered the US since November.

    That’s roughly 13% of the total alleged gold holdings in Fort Knox flowing into the US in less than six months.

    This is not normal market action.

    This strongly suggests that a non-market entity—most likely the US government—is behind this massive gold movement.

    That’s why Trump’s recent comments about Fort Knox are so interesting.

    Trump recently brought Fort Knox into the national conversation, something no US president has done in decades.

    Would he have even mentioned the possibility of auditing Fort Knox if the vaults were empty? I doubt it.

    Instead, there’s a good chance that the enormous inflow of physical gold into the US is happening in anticipation of an audit.

    Connecting the Dots—Something Big Is Coming

    So, here’s what we know:

    1. Trump has put Fort Knox’s gold holdings back in the national spotlight for the first time in decades.

    2. Central bank gold purchases are accelerating at record-breaking levels.

    3. An unusually large influx of physical gold is flowing into the US, far beyond regular market activity.

    Follow the Gold. It Always Leads to the Truth

    Central banks are hoarding gold at record levels. The US government is likely pulling in millions of ounces. And Trump is talking about Fort Knox.

    This isn’t coincidence.

    Find out what they’re preparing for and how you can be ready in our urgent dispatch:

    The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years… the Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now

    Click here see it now.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 11:05
  34. Site: RT - News
    4 weeks 5 hours ago
    Author: RT

    The Ukrainian leader reportedly said only the US president can broker peace between Moscow and Kiev

    Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky tried to persuade US President Donald Trump during their brief conversation at the Vatican not to give up on his efforts to settle the conflict between Moscow and Kiev, according to The Economist.

    Trump and Zelensky got together for some 15 minutes on the sidelines of Pope Francis’ funeral on Saturday.

    The negotiations “produced a striking photograph of the two men sitting in St. Peter’s Basilica, locked in conversation as apparent political equals,” The Economist wrote on Tuesday.

    Ukrainian sources told the outlet that Zelensky used the discussions “to deliver a simple message: Ukraine is ready for an unconditional ceasefire, Russia is not, and Mr. Trump should not abandon a peace that only he can deliver.” 

    Russia previously called the 30-day ceasefire demanded by Kiev “unrealistic,” stressing that talks can take place without a pause in the fighting.

    Read more  Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky during a press conference, April 22, 2025. Zelensky openly threatening Victory Day terrorist attack – Moscow

    US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned over the weekend that Washington could disengage from the peace process if it does not see rapid progress from Russia and Ukraine towards an end to the fighting.

    The mood in Ukraine is now “cautiously optimistic” because the officials in Kiev believe that “after months of threats and blackmail,” Trump has finally started “to respect” Zelensky, the Economist wrote.

    The talks at the Vatican became the first in-person conversation between the two leaders since their meeting at the Oval Office in late February, which devolved into a shouting match in front of the cameras.

    At the time, Trump and US Vice President J.D. Vance accused Zelensky of being ungrateful for the American aid and not being interested in peace. The public quarrel resulted in the Ukrainian leader’s visit to the White House being cut short.

    Following the meeting at the Vatican, Trump described Zelensky as “calmer,” saying that the Ukrainian leader now “understands the picture. And I think he wants to make a deal. I do not know if he wanted to make a deal [before]. I think he wants to make a deal.”

    READ MORE: Trump claims he stopped Russia from taking over Ukraine

    On Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated Moscow’s readiness to engage in direct talks with Kiev without any preconditions.

    As for the ceasefire, Russia considers it “a precondition that will be used to further support the Kiev regime and strengthen its military capabilities,” he explained.

     

  35. Site: southern orders
    4 weeks 5 hours ago

    April 30, 2025 at 8:48am

    Front-runner Parolin's audition is a flop 

    Cardinal Pietro Parolin, former Vatican secretary of state, reads his homily while celebrating Mass on the second day of the second day of the "novendiali" -- nine days of mourning for Pope Francis marked by Masses -- in St. Peter's Square April 27, 2025. (CNS photo/Pablo Esparza)

    Cardinal Pietro Parolin had an audition of sorts for pope on Sunday and the reviews are in and hey aren't good. Parolin, seen as a front-runner for the seat of St. Peter, said Mass for 200,000 young people in St. Peter's Square. He praised Pope Francis, but his stilted style left him unable to connect with a crowd. As one cardinal-elector told the National Catholic Reporter, the Mass was a reminder of Francis' charisma and communication gifts and that Parolin lacks both. 

    BUT THEN, THE NCR FREAKS OUT OVER INSULTS HURLED AT THEIR PREFERRED CANDIDATE, CARDINAL TAGLE! THIS COMMENTARY IS OVER THE TOP AND SHOWS THE FEAR OF THE NCR AT THIS JUNCTURE IN PAPAL HISTORY:

    Push title:

  36. Site: southern orders
    4 weeks 5 hours ago

    April 30, 2025 at 8:48am

    Front-runner Parolin's audition is a flop 

    Cardinal Pietro Parolin, former Vatican secretary of state, reads his homily while celebrating Mass on the second day of the second day of the "novendiali" -- nine days of mourning for Pope Francis marked by Masses -- in St. Peter's Square April 27, 2025. (CNS photo/Pablo Esparza)

    Cardinal Pietro Parolin had an audition of sorts for pope on Sunday and the reviews are in and hey aren't good. Parolin, seen as a front-runner for the seat of St. Peter, said Mass for 200,000 young people in St. Peter's Square. He praised Pope Francis, but his stilted style left him unable to connect with a crowd. As one cardinal-elector told the National Catholic Reporter, the Mass was a reminder of Francis' charisma and communication gifts and that Parolin lacks both. 

    BUT THEN, THE NCR FREAKS OUT OVER INSULTS HURLED AT THEIR PREFERRED CANDIDATE, CARDINAL TAGLE! THIS COMMENTARY IS OVER THE TOP AND SHOWS THE FEAR OF THE NCR AT THIS JUNCTURE IN PAPAL HISTORY:

    Push title:

  37. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 5 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Stagflation Scenario Slammed As Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Tumbles To Four Year Lows

    The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE - printed cooler than expected in March, unchanged MoM (vs +0.1% exp), bring prices up 2.6% YoY - the lowest since March 2021...

    Source: Bloomberg

    ...with non-durable goods deflating MoM the biggest drag on Core PCE

    ...but, but, but we were told tariffs would spark hyper-super-scary-inflation?

    The headline PCE was -0.045% MoM - the biggest MoM drop since COVID lockdowns...

    ...dragging headline PCE YoY down to +2.3%...

    SuperCore PCE also saw the YoY pace slow significantly...

    Spending outpaced incomes significantly in March...

    Source: Bloomberg

    Which means that the savings rate fell to 3.9% from 4.1% in February, which was revised lower from 4.6%...

    Adjusted for inflation, real personal spending surged 0.7% MoM (not a total surprise given that 'consumers' are panicking over an imminent surge in inflation, of course they should be spending)....

    It appears DOGE is doing its jobs too - crushing govt wage growth

    • March Government worker wages and salaries up just 2.9%, down from 3.2% in Feb and the lowest since Sept 2020

    • March Private worker wages and salaries up 5.4%, down from 5.7%, and lowest since Dec 2022

    ...and there goes the stagflation scenario.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 10:16
  38. Site: RT - News
    4 weeks 5 hours ago
    Author: RT

    Kiev would give half of the proceeds from resource extraction to a joint fund, Prime Minister Denis Shmigal has said

    Ukraine is preparing to sign a long-discussed minerals agreement with the US as early as Wednesday, Bloomberg has reported, citing sources. Talks over the deal – which includes a joint fund for developing the country’s resources – have been a source of tension between Kiev and Washington for months.

    Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmigal confirmed that the sides are expecting to sign the deal within 24 hours, adding that Kiev would hand over half of the proceeds from resource extraction to the joint US-Ukraine fund.

    Ukraine and the US have been working since February to finalize the agreement granting Washington access to the country’s deposits of rare earths and other minerals. The administration of US President Donald Trump has described the deal as a pathway to recouping funds Washington has spent aiding Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. However, Ukrainian officials have insisted that all US support was provided unconditionally.

    Read more FILE PHOTO. Ukraine publishes memorandum on minerals deal with US

    According to a person familiar with the matter interviewed by Bloomberg, the sides have completed a draft agreement. As a result, Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Sviridenko is said to be on her way to Washington for the signing.

    The agreement outlines the creation of a joint fund for managing investment projects in Ukraine and aims to increase cooperation in mining, energy, and related technology. A draft of the deal also shows Washington has acknowledged Ukraine’s EU integration goals and agreed the deal should not conflict with them.

    The US has also reportedly agreed that only future military aid to Kiev would count toward its contribution to the investment fund. Earlier, Washington insisted that past military aid should also be included in the agreement.

    The development comes after Sviridenko signed a preliminary memorandum on the resource deal earlier this month. Despite this, Trump later criticized the Ukrainian leadership for slow progress, demanding the agreement be signed “immediately.”

    The deal was widely expected to be signed in late February during Vladimir Zelensky’s visit to the White House. However, the Ukrainian leader entered into an open spat with Trump, who accused Zelensky of “gambling with World War III” and showing reluctance to accept a ceasefire with Russia.

  39. Site: RT - News
    4 weeks 6 hours ago
    Author: RT

    Unlike Mikhail Gorbachev, Trump has no illusions about being liked. That’s what makes his disruption more effective – and more volatile.

    In Donald Trump’s second term, US foreign policy has taken a series of sharp, often surprising turns. His administration has veered from seeking rapprochement with Russia to publicly dressing down Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky; from berating European allies for their democratic lapses to launching trade wars against traditional partners; from floating ambitions about acquiring Greenland and hinting at absorbing Canada as the “51st state,” to tearing down iconic soft power institutions like USAID, Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, and Voice of America.

    It’s tempting to think of this as uniquely Trumpian – but history offers a compelling parallel. Four decades ago, across the Atlantic, a newly appointed Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, came to power. What began as a cautious shift in Moscow’s external posture soon morphed into a sweeping “new thinking” in foreign affairs. Gorbachev ended the Cold War – but also presided over the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Could Trump play a similar role for the United States? How far could his initiatives go – and what might they mean for America’s future?

    At face value, Trump and Gorbachev appear worlds apart. One grew up wealthy, the other in modest circumstances. One is brash and combative, the other was warm and conciliatory. Trump lives large, a self-styled playboy; Gorbachev remained devoted to his wife and never sought personal wealth, even amid Soviet upheaval. Trump thrived in cutthroat markets and democratic elections; Gorbachev rose through backroom deals and party hierarchies. Trump is a product of the postmodern digital age; Gorbachev was a modernist reformer who placed faith in rational governance and global norms. Trump champions nationalism and self-interest; Gorbachev preached universal values.

    Read more Russian President Vladimir Putin. Fyodor Lukyanov: Forget land – this is Russia’s main demand from the West

    Yet despite their differences, both men shared a deep desire to overhaul systems they viewed as bloated and unsustainable. Each tried to “clean up liabilities” – to eliminate outdated, overextended, and costly commitments.

    Gorbachev’s Gamble

    By the 1980s, the Soviet Union was stagnating. The Brezhnev era, later romanticized for its “stability,” had bred corruption, economic inertia, a detached ruling class, and widespread alcoholism. The military budget was immense: Moscow poured resources into propping up Warsaw Pact allies, subsidizing socialist regimes worldwide, and maintaining nuclear and conventional parity with the US and NATO. Meanwhile, relations with China were hostile. Since the late ‘60s, the two nations had been in a quiet cold war, even as Beijing sought warmer ties with Washington. And then there was the costly quagmire in Afghanistan.

    While some of these efforts might have been defensible in the name of strategic deterrence or ideological solidarity, they increasingly backfired. The arms race yielded diminishing returns. Allies became freeloaders. Global influence waned.

    Gorbachev’s answer was de-escalation. Arms reduction treaties slashed bloated arsenals. Relations with China thawed. Troop levels in Afghanistan dropped. For a time, Soviet diplomacy gained moral traction on the world stage – Gorbachev positioned the USSR as a force for peace and progress, and his personal reputation soared.

    But the momentum didn’t last. Many of Moscow’s concessions proved one-sided. Missiles were dismantled with little reciprocal gain. Gorbachev supported German reunification without securing hard guarantees against NATO’s eastward expansion. By the late ‘80s, Eastern Europe had erupted in peaceful revolutions, toppling one socialist regime after another. Unlike in 1968 Czechoslovakia, the USSR chose not to intervene militarily.

    Read more FILE PHOTO. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, President Donald Trump, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at the White House, Washington, DC, Feb. 26, 2025. The Cold War never ended — but Washington’s priorities just did

    As Moscow’s grip loosened, it became evident the Soviet Union was losing its leverage with NATO and its own sphere of influence. Worse still, liberalization at home – economic reforms, government restructuring, and glasnost (political openness) – triggered an uncontrollable chain reaction. State legitimacy crumbled. Nationalist sentiment surged in the republics. Attempts to slow the unraveling with half-measures only hastened the collapse. Gorbachev’s cleanup campaign ended not in renewal, but in ruin.

    Trump’s Turn

    Trump, too, began his presidency with a push to shed what he saw as unnecessary burdens. The US–Russia standoff, he argued, had locked Washington into a costly “double deterrence” trap. Ukraine, from this viewpoint, had become a black hole for American resources – costing tens, even hundreds of billions in military and financial support – despite Russia posing no existential threat to the US.

    After all, Russia is a capitalist state, once deeply embedded in the global economy. Its push to dominate its “near abroad” is not unlike the US response to Soviet missiles in Cuba. And its emphasis on traditional values is more defensive than expansionist – unlike communism, which once posed an ideological challenge to the West.

    So why the outsized US investment in a standoff with Moscow? Especially when, three years into Russia’s war in Ukraine, the West has failed to land a knockout blow? Ukraine has withstood invasion but not turned the tide. Russia, battered but intact, has avoided political or economic collapse – and continues to support America’s adversaries.

    In that context, seeking a strategic compromise with Moscow doesn’t seem naïve – it looks rational.

    Read more President Trump Holds "Make America Wealthy Again Event" In White House Rose Garden Why Trump quickly rolled back the global trade war

    This raises a larger question: Should the US continue preserving the Cold War’s institutional legacy? The Cold War ended with a sweeping American victory – military, economic, and ideological. But can the same playbook guide the country through today’s multipolar world? Clinging to Cold War logic has backfired. Rather than remain inga reliable partner, Russia has become a dangerous wild card. Meanwhile, new powers – from China to regional upstarts like North Korea – are challenging US influence. The global burden on Washington grows heavier, even as its returns diminish.

    A Fractured Alliance

    Trump’s re-evaluation of traditional alliances has gone further than any recent administration. The notion of annexing Greenland would be a shocking blow to one of America’s closest allies. Canada has also found itself on edge. And Trump’s trade wars with friendly nations have added to the strain – though, to be fair, US–Japan tensions in the past took similar turns.

    What’s become clear is that the traditional Atlantic alliance, as it stood over the past 30 years, can no longer be taken for granted. Washington is demanding tangible returns – now. And this is not just Trump’s doing. Around him is a cadre of younger, energetic allies. Should Trump be removed from the scene, Vice President J.D. Vance would likely carry the torch – with even greater zeal.

    Collapse or Course Correction?

    Could America go the way of the USSR? For now, that seems unlikely. The US possesses far deeper institutional resilience. It’s not just about economic size – the Soviet Union was massive, too – but about adaptability. The American system can absorb shocks, even from figures as disruptive as Trump, and then pivot back without undermining its core principles.

    Gorbachev, in contrast, was boxed in by his own idealism. His vision of peace left him paralyzed at moments that demanded forceful action. Trump, by contrast, is already cast as a villain by many US allies. That gives him more room to act decisively.

    With America’s systemic flexibility behind him, Trump may feel emboldened to experiment. And in these experiments, longtime allies might find themselves not just in supporting roles – but as test subjects.

  40. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 6 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Judge Bars Border Patrol From Making Warrantless Arrests Of Illegal Immigrants In Parts Of California

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A federal judge in California has barred U.S. Border Patrol agents from arresting suspected illegal immigrants within parts of the state without a warrant or specific evidence that the individual poses a flight risk—while delivering a rebuke to tactics used during a controversial January enforcement sweep.

    Border Patrol agents wait for the arrival of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for a visit to the US-Mexico border in Sunland Park, New Mexico, on Feb. 3, 2025. AP Photo/Andres Leighton, File

    In an April 29 order, U.S. District Judge Jennifer L. Thurston issued a preliminary injunction against the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Border Patrol, siding with the United Farm Workers and five Kern County residents who sued after the raid, dubbed “Operation Return to Sender,” unfolded across the Bakersfield area earlier this year.

    The plaintiffs, represented by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), alleged in their Feb. 26 complaint that the sweep violated their Fourth and Fifth Amendment rights, along with federal immigration statutes governing warrantless arrests and due process.

    Under Thurston’s order, Border Patrol agents operating in California’s Eastern District are now prohibited from making detentions or arrests without first establishing reasonable suspicion of unlawful presence in the country and, for arrests, probable cause that the individual is likely to flee before a warrant can be obtained.

    “The evidence before the Court is that Border Patrol agents under DHS authority engaged in conduct that violated well-established constitutional rights,” Thurston wrote in the ruling.

    The court also restricted the agency’s use of “voluntary departure,” a process by which illegal immigrants agree to leave the United States without a hearing before an immigration judge. Going forward, agents must clearly inform individuals of their rights and obtain genuine, informed consent before initiating such removals.

    The judge further ordered DHS to submit regular reports documenting any warrantless stops or arrests, along with justifications, for the duration of litigation. She also instructed DHS to issue written guidelines clarifying the legal threshold for initiating stops.

    “This guidance shall include, among other things, that refusal to answer questions does not, without more, constitute a basis for reasonable suspicion to justify a detentive stop,” she wrote.

    The case stems from allegations that, beginning in early January 2025, dozens of Border Patrol agents traveled more than 300 miles inland from the U.S.–Mexico border to Bakersfield, targeting predominantly Latino neighborhoods and day laborer gathering spots without individualized suspicion.

    The plaintiffs described “Operation Return to Sender” as a sweeping dragnet based on racial and occupational profiling, claiming agents pulled over vehicles, blocked parked cars, conducted warrantless searches, and detained people without evidence of unlawful presence.

    Once in custody, detainees were allegedly transported to a facility near the border, denied access to attorneys, and pressured into signing “voluntary departure” forms without understanding the consequences—a process plaintiffs described as “summary expulsion” that can carry long-term reentry bans.

    Once in custody, detainees claimed they were transported to a Border Patrol facility near the border, where they were denied access to lawyers and coerced into signing “voluntary departure” forms under misleading pretenses, which they described as a “form of summary expulsion.”

    Attorneys for the Justice Department argued the case should be dismissed, claiming the plaintiffs lacked standing and that no official policy mandated unlawful stops or arrests. They further contended that any potential violations were isolated incidents, not part of a broader pattern, and that the lawsuit had become moot after DHS issued revised internal guidance.

    But the court rejected those arguments, finding that the plaintiffs demonstrated a credible threat of repeated harm. Thurston wrote that the new DHS policy did not eliminate the risk of future violations and “could be withdrawn or altered in the future” without constraint.

    The Epoch Times contacted the Justice Department and the ACLU with requests for comment on the ruling.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 09:40
  41. Site: southern orders
    4 weeks 6 hours ago

     This is very hopeful to read from Vatican News. The part I highlight in red is extremely important in reverence to the former Pope Francis and his governing style. 

    Cardinals discuss economic situation of the Holy See at General Congregation

    By Vatican News

    The Director of the Holy See Press Office, Matteo Bruni, told reporters on Wednesday that 180 Cardinals attended the seventh General Congregation, of whom 124 were Cardinal electors.

    In the first part of the meeting, the Cardinals discussed the economic and financial situation of the Holy See, with contributions from Cardinals Reinhard Marx, Kevin Farrell, Christoph Schönborn, Fernando Vergez, and Konrad Krajewski.

    Cardinal Marx, coordinator of the Council for the Economy, presented several challenges, issues, and proposals from the perspective of sustainability, with the goal that the economic structures continue to support the reforms of the papacy.

    Cardinal Schönborn spoke as president of the IOR Oversight Commission, and Cardinal Vergez shared several details regarding the situation of the Governorate of Vatican City State, mentioning the ongoing renovation work.

    Cardinal Krajewski spoke about the activities of the Dicastery for the Service of Charity.

    In the second part of the General Congregation, 14 Cardinals intervened on various topics, including the ecclesiology of the people of God and the wound caused by polarization within the Church and the division in society, (division caused by) synodality and (and division synodality has brought to) episcopal collegiality (all this was discussed) as a way (to find solutions) to overcome polarization. (They also discussed) vocations to the priesthood and religious life.

    Several references were made to the conciliar texts Lumen Gentium and Gaudium et Spes, and they discussed evangelization, especially focusing on the consistency between what is lived and what is proclaimed. (My comment: these two Vatican II documents are wonderful and do provide a correction to the Magisterium of the Former Pope Francis!)

    The General Congregation concluded at 12:30 PM with the prayer of the Regina Coeli.

  42. Site: southern orders
    4 weeks 6 hours ago

     This is very hopeful to read from Vatican News. The part I highlight in red is extremely important in reverence to the former Pope Francis and his governing style. 

    Cardinals discuss economic situation of the Holy See at General Congregation

    By Vatican News

    The Director of the Holy See Press Office, Matteo Bruni, told reporters on Wednesday that 180 Cardinals attended the seventh General Congregation, of whom 124 were Cardinal electors.

    In the first part of the meeting, the Cardinals discussed the economic and financial situation of the Holy See, with contributions from Cardinals Reinhard Marx, Kevin Farrell, Christoph Schönborn, Fernando Vergez, and Konrad Krajewski.

    Cardinal Marx, coordinator of the Council for the Economy, presented several challenges, issues, and proposals from the perspective of sustainability, with the goal that the economic structures continue to support the reforms of the papacy.

    Cardinal Schönborn spoke as president of the IOR Oversight Commission, and Cardinal Vergez shared several details regarding the situation of the Governorate of Vatican City State, mentioning the ongoing renovation work.

    Cardinal Krajewski spoke about the activities of the Dicastery for the Service of Charity.

    In the second part of the General Congregation, 14 Cardinals intervened on various topics, including the ecclesiology of the people of God and the wound caused by polarization within the Church and the division in society, (division caused by) synodality and (and division synodality has brought to) episcopal collegiality (all this was discussed) as a way (to find solutions) to overcome polarization. (They also discussed) vocations to the priesthood and religious life.

    Several references were made to the conciliar texts Lumen Gentium and Gaudium et Spes, and they discussed evangelization, especially focusing on the consistency between what is lived and what is proclaimed. (My comment: these two Vatican II documents are wonderful and do provide a correction to the Magisterium of the Former Pope Francis!)

    The General Congregation concluded at 12:30 PM with the prayer of the Regina Coeli.

  43. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 6 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    "Nothing To Do With Tariffs" - Trump Blames Biden "Overhang" As Stocks Puke After Q1 GDP

    US equity futures are tumbling in the pre-market following a weak ADP employment report and Q1 GDP contraction (driven by a tariff-front-running surge in imports).

    In the last month or two, we have been told that President Trump is not focused on the stock market, rejecting the idea of a 'Trump Put' (especially when it came to the decision to 'pause' reciprocal tariffs this month).

    However this morning, following the bad data and ugly equity drop, Trump posted on TruthSocial that "This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s."

    I didn’t take over until January 20th. 

    Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers. 

    Our Country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden “Overhang.” 

    This will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers, but when the boom begins, it will be like no other.

    BE PATIENT!!!

    The surge in imports - which dragged down GDP - is due to the tariff decisions, there is no question.

    But also bear in mind that this is not a 'classic recessionary slowdown' in the economy, it is a front-running surge in imports 'ahead' of the tariffs and shrinking government spending.

    The former is a temporary impact, the latter is what America voted for!!

    Interestingly, rate-cut odds are rising notably after the data...

    Which makes us wonder if 'the market' is now switching to search for the 'Fed Put', not the 'Trump Put'.

     

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 09:28
  44. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 7 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    US Q1 GDP Contracts On Record Imports, Shrinking Govt, As Consumption Comes In Stronger Than Expected

    There were good and bad news in today's GDP report.

    Starting with the bad news, Q1 GDP printed -0.3%, worse than the -0.2% expected and the first negative print since Q1 2022 when the economy was in a recession but was subsequently revised out of it

    The good news is that the drop was actually supposed to be much worse (recall the Atlanta Fed's latest GDP estimate was -2.7%, or -1.5% excluding record gold imports). Indeed, if one looks at the components of today's GDP print one finds that the number was actually unexpectedly strong, if one strips out the two negative components, net trade and government.

    As shown in the chart below, Q1 GDP comprised of the following components:

    • Personal Consumption 1.21%, down from 2.70%, but translating into an annualized Personal Consumption print of 1.8%, much higher than the 1.2% expected
    • Fixed investment jumped to 1.34%, up from -0.2% and the highest since Q2 2023 as the BEA finally starts tracking data center investment correctly
    • Change in private inventories surged 2.25%, as expected, on the pre-tariff restocking; this number was up from a -0.84% drop last quarter and is expected to reverse in coming quarters as inventories are sold off.
    • Government spending was a negative -0.25%, the first negative print for Joe Biden's favorite "plug" to push GDP higher since 2022.
    • Finally, and most importantly, net trade (exports less imports) was a whopping 4.830% hit to the final GDP number, a 5% swing from the +0.26% contribution in Q4. This was entirely the result of soaring imports (of which gold was about half) in Q1 which hit GDP by a near record 5.03%. Just like inventories, this number will now reverse in coming quarters as tariff frontrunning ends and is reversed.

    And visually:

    Taking a closer look at the import contribution to GDP, which was the biggest swing factor, one can see that at 5.03%, this was the 2nd highest on record with just the outlier covid shock bigger. In other words, absent economic shock, this was a record quarterly print.

    In its commentary, the BEA confirmed as much, writing that "the decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports."

    Compared to the fourth quarter, the downturn in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an upturn in imports, a deceleration in consumer spending, and a downturn in government spending that were partly offset by upturns in investment and exports.

    Turning to inflation, the BEA reported that the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent.

    Putting these in context, GDP Price index of 3.7% came in hotter than the 3.1% expected, while the core PCE of 3.5% was also hotter than the 3.1%.

    Bottom line, the GDP number was much stronger than expected, in fact it was a whopping 2.4% higher than the now laughable AtlantaFed GDP forecast, and if anything this positions the Trump admin for a surprise bounce in Q2 and/or Q3 when all the outlier prints from Q1 are reversed.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 09:04
  45. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 7 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Rate-Cut Odds Jump After ADP Reports Weakest Job Growth Since July 2024

    While jobless claims refuse to show even a glimmer of hope to the doomsaying 'recession is imminent and it's all because of Trump' narrative, this morning's ADP gives us a potential glimpse at what Friday's 'most important payrolls print ever' will offer.

    ...and the picture is not pretty at all...

    According to ADP, the US economy added just 62k jobs in April - the lowest since July 2024's dip

    Source: Bloomberg

    Education and health services, information, and professional and business services lost jobs, while hiring in other sectors was moderate.

    "Unease is the word of the day," says Nela Richardson Chief Economist.

    "ADP Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data. It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment."

    Goods-Producing jobs outperformed Service-Providing jobs...

    There is more bad news -

    Pay for job-stayers rose 4.5 percent in April from a year earlier, a slight deceleration from March. 

    Year-over-year pay gains for job-changers accelerated, rising from 6.7 percent in March to 6.9 percent in April - the highest since Dec 2024.

    The question is - will this dreadful jobs print prompt The Fed to come back to the table (or is the wage re-acceleration enough to keep them away)?

    The market is moving that way - pricing in four cuts for 2025 now.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 08:24
  46. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 7 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Futures Drop Ahead Of Macro Data, Earnings Deluge

    US equity futures slipped ahead of key GDP and PCE data. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% while Nasdaq 100 contracts lose 0.5%, with Mag 7 names mostly lower (NVDA -1.4%, TSLA -1.1% and META -0.6%) as weak earnings weighed on risk sentiment after Super Micro plunged 16% ahead of Microsoft and Meta numbers later on Wednesday. Bond yields are lower by 1bps to 4.15% while the USD is higher. Overnight, China’s factory PMI slipped into the worst contraction since December 2023 (49 vs 49.7 cons) due to the negative impact of higher US tariffs, while Trump at a rally in Michigan renewed his criticism of Powell, noting he is "not really doing a good job" and that he knows more about interest rates. This morning, Euro Area flash CPI has been mixed, while Q1 GDP data was slightly firmer than expected at 1.2% YoY (vs 1.1% cons). Commodities are mixed: oil is 1.8% lower; previous metals are lower, while base metals are mostly higher. After yesterday’s close, earnings were modestly negative. Particularly, SBUX fell 6.7% on missed earnings amid margin pressure and top-line growth. BKNG commented that there is a moderation in inbound travel into the US, but so far the global leisure travel demand has been stable. Looking ahead today, we have ADP employment, Q1 GDP, PCE and employment cost index. There are no Fed speakers scheduled given blackout ahead of May's FOMC meeting.

    In premarket trading the Mag7 stocks were mostly lower (Alphabet -0.1%, Amazon -0.6%, Apple -0.4%, Meta Platforms -0.9%, Microsoft +0.1%, Nvidia -2%, Tesla -1.3%). First Solar tumbled 12% after the maker of electricity-producing solar modules cut earnings guidance for this year due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Norwegian Cruise Line dropped 7% after warning that cruise demand, which has long defied worrying travel trends, is beginning to weaken.  Snap plunged 13% after the company declined to issue a sales forecast for the current period, saying it is navigating macroeconomic “headwinds” for its advertising business. Starbucks slumped 8% after weaker-than-expected results in the latest quarter amped up pressure for the company’s new management to deliver. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

    • BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO) rallies 9% after the drugmaker reported sales of its recently approved heart drug, Attruby, that crushed expectations.
    • Etsy (ETSY) rises 1% after the online marketplace for crafts reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
    • Freshworks Inc. (FRSH) climbs 9% after the software-as-a-service company boosted its profit and revenue outlook for the year.
    • Garmin (GRMN) falls 6% after the maker of GPS-enabled products posted first-quarter results and provided a year forecast.
    • Oddity Tech (ODD) jumps 17% after the direct-to-consumer beauty and wellness company boosted its net revenue guidance for the full year to a level above Wall Street expectations.
    • Qorvo (QRVO) climbs 8% after the Apple supplier reported adjusted 4Q earnings that topped estimates.
    • Regulus Therapeutics (RGLS) shares are halted after the company entered into an agreement to be acquired by Novartis AG.
    • Seagate (STX) gains 7% after the computer hardware and storage company reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat the average analyst estimate
    • Stride Inc. (LRN) climbs 3% after the online education company boosted its revenue forecast for the full year. Fiscal third-quarter revenue increased 18%.
    • Super Micro Computer (SMCI) tumbles 16% after giving preliminary results that fell well short of analysts’ estimates, a sign its comeback plan has been slow to gain traction.
    • Tenable (TENB) plunges 17% after the cybersecurity company cut its full-year guidance, with analysts noting lower visibility ahead for the stock due to US federal spending uncertainties.
    • Wabash National (WNC) falls 13% after the semi-trailer manufacturing company cut its revenue guidance for the full year.

    Investors have been cautiously optimistic, with the Nasdaq 100 close to erasing all of its losses this month, after tariff U-turns and speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to prevent a recession.  

    “Perhaps we are past peak uncertainty,” Kim Crawford, global rates portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. “The administration has a more conciliatory tone on tariffs and to an extent as well, Fed independence.” Benchmark 10-year Treasuries steadied after six days of gains, with the yield at 4.16%. Gold dropped.

    Four of the so-called Magnificent Seven — Microsoft, Apple Inc., Meta and Amazon.com Inc. — are reporting earnings this week. Analysts expect the group — which also includes Google-parent Alphabet Inc., Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. — to deliver an average of 15% profit growth in 2025, a forecast that’s barely budged since the start of March despite the flareup in trade tensions.

    “Even if you take out the tariff story outcome I think there is an issue for Big Tech and the market will probably start to refocus on that when we get this earnings season,” Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, told Bloomberg TV. “We still have the issue of the massive amount of capex being spent on Big Tech, they’re overspending on this AI story.”

    Economic barometers of US economic health are also due with inflation and GDP data Wednesday that will give a snapshot of activity just before President Donald Trump unleashed country-specific levies on April 2. US real GDP growth likely cooled to a standstill in the first quarter amid disruptions from policy shifts, according to Bloomberg Economics.

    Veteran emerging-markets investor Mark Mobius said he’s keeping 95% of his funds’ holdings in cash as he waits out the trade-related uncertainty. Hedge funds are reluctant to make major bets amid the turmoil, with the only significant shift in positioning in April being increased bets against US stocks, Bloomberg reported.

    In the latest pivot in Trump’s trade strategy, the US president signed an executive order easing the impact of his auto tariffs, preventing duties on foreign-made vehicles from stacking on top of other levies and lessening charges on parts from overseas used to make vehicles in the US. The news supported sentiment toward European auto stocks Wednesday, with Mercedes-Benz Group AG and Stellantis NV rising even after withdrawing their outlooks for this year, citing the uncertainty of trade barriers. 

    In a rally celebrating his first 100 days in office, Trump defended his tariff policies as he marked his 100th day in office. He also renewed criticism of Fed Chair Powell, saying he is “not really doing a good job.”

    In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises for a seventh consecutive session, albeit only slightly, as disappointing earnings keep a lid on gains. Travel & leisure stocks are the worst performers. Energy and bank stocks also underperform with notable declines in TotalEnergies and Credit Agricole after their respective updates. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

    • Societe Generale shares advanced 5.7% after the French lender beat estimates as equities trading hit a record and it booked a gain on disposals.
    • DSV shares rise as much as 11% after the Danish logistics firm gave a reassuring set of results, with analysts highlighting the synergies it set out from its DB Schenker deal.
    • Schindler shares gain as much as 8.2% after the Swiss elevator and escalator maker reported impressive 1Q results with a dynamic order intake and no change in guidance despite US tariffs.
    • Stellantis shares rise as much as 4.2% in Milan after the carmaker released a trading update which Bernstein said included some positives, with pricing ahead of expectations in all key regions.
    • VW shares rise as much as 1.4% after the German carmaker reiterated its full-year guidance, a move JPMorgan called a positive signal.
    • Deutsche Post shares rise as much as 4.1% after the delivery firm’s Ebit came in higher than expected in the first quarter, driven by its Express and Post & Parcel divisions and aided by cost-cutting.
    • Aixtron shares climb as much as 14% after the German chip-tool company’s first-quarter results showed better-than-expected revenue, order levels and positive free cash flow, according to Warburg.
    • Remy shares rise as much as 5.7% as analysts highlighted encouraging signs in the Cognac maker’s earnings, including an improvement in its US market as well as a better outlook for 2026.
    • UMG climbs as much as 7.1% as subscription growth helps to deliver first-quarter results above expectations.
    • Befesa shares rise as much as 13% after the German recycling company’s full-year earnings guidance surprised to the upside.
    • AMS-Osram shares soar 17%, with ZKB analysts saying the Swiss chipmaker reported a good start to the year due to strong performance in its semiconductor business.
    • Credit Agricole fell as much as 4.5% as higher-than-expected costs and a tax bill weighed on profit.
    • TotalEnergies shares fall as much as 4.3% after the French energy company reported results that were in line with expectations, but also an increase in net debt.
    • Mercedes shares drop as much as 2.8% after the carmaker said tariff volatility is too high to give a reliable outlook.
    • Evolution shares drop as much as 18%. The gambling operator reported a miss on revenue and Ebitda in the first quarter, which management attributes to actions including ring-fencing regulated markets in Europe and countermeasures to cyberattacks in Asia.

    Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, on track for a fourth-straight day of gains, as investors were encouraged by a continued rally on Wall Street and optimism over potential trade deals with the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7%. Sony was among the biggest boosts after Bloomberg reported it is considering spinning off its semiconductor unit, while AIA climbed on strong quarterly results. The regional benchmark is poised to close April more than 2% higher, wiping out a steep intra-month loss sparked by US tariffs. The market has been looking toward various concessions from Washington as well as individual nations’ negotiations with the US. President Donald Trump on Tuesday signed an executive order easing the impact of his auto tariffs, while news emerged of discussions with South Korea and Australia. China’s manufacturing activity in April saw its worst contraction since December 2023, exposing early signs of weakness in Asia’s biggest economy from the trade war with the US. Shares of Chinese banks were among the biggest drags on equity benchmarks in Hong Kong and mainland China after weak earnings. 

    In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed. The Aussie dollar outperforms rising 0.2% against the greenback after core inflation rose more than expected. AUD/USD rose as much as 0.5% to 0.6418 before paring the move; the nation’s core inflation in the first quarter beat estimates, damping expectations of rapid rate cuts. The pound and the yen were among the worst performers, down 0.3% and 0.4% against the dollar respectively.

    In rates, treasuries mixed with the long-end outperforming where yields are down around 2bp on the day, supported by wider gains seen across the long-end of Germany and UK bonds after a flurry of European economic data. Ahead of today's quarterly refunding announcement, the 10-year US yield are down 1bps to 4.16%. US yields slightly cheaper across the front-end while richer in the long-end of the curve, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 1.8bp and 2.5bp on the day; US 10-year yields trade down to around 4.16%, richer by 1bp on the day with bunds and gilts outperforming by 2bp and 2.5bp in the sector. European government bonds gain with little reaction shown to a flurry of economic data releases, including a beat for euro-area first quarter GDP. European government bonds rose; German yields were up to 4bps lower across the curve, with gilts mirroring that move; UK 10-year yield down 4bps to 4.40%

    In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 1% to $59.80 a barrel. Spot gold falls $36 to around $3,280/oz. Bitcoin is steady near $94,800. 

    US economic calendar includes April ADP employment change (8:15am), 1Q advanced GDP (8:30am), April MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am), March personal income/spending, PCE price index, pending home sales (10am). Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the May 7 FOMC meeting

    Market Snapshot

    • S&P 500 mini -0.1%
    • Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
    • Russell 2000 mini little changed
    • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
    • DAX +0.5%, CAC 40 +0.4%
    • 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.16%
    • VIX +0.3 points at 24.48
    • Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1222.44
    • euro -0.1% at $1.1371
    • WTI crude -1.3% at $59.63/barrel

    Top Overnight News

    • US President Trump said he achieved the 100 most successful days for a president in US history, while he noted a lot of auto jobs and companies are coming in and we're restoring the rule of law and ending the inflation nightmare. Trump renewed his criticism of Jerome Powell, saying the Fed chair’s “not really doing a good job.” He also championed his tariff regime at a rally that came just hours after he signed a pair of executive orders pulling back some of his auto levies.
    • US Secretary of State Marco Rubio plans to speak with the foreign ministers of India and Pakistan in an attempt to calm tensions. BBG
    • Trump continues to float fresh tax cut proposals while Republicans struggle to agree on ways to lower the cost of the reconciliation bill. Axios
    • Top Trump advisor reportedly struggled to soothe investors in talks after market tumult in which Stephen Miran met with hedge funds and big asset managers after tariffs sparked Wall Street turmoil, according to FT.
    • China’s factory PMI slipped into the worst contraction since December 2023, revealing early damage of US tariffs. Beijing has created a list of US-made products that would be exempted from its 125% tariffs. BBG
    • Chinese sovereign investor CIC is selling about $1 billion of its private equity investment portfolio in the secondary market. The assets are held in a number of funds managed by eight U.S. fund managers, including Blackstone Inc and Carlyle Group. RTRS
    • Huawei has started the delivery of its advanced AI chip “cluster” to Chinese clients who are increasing orders after being cut off from Nvidia’s semiconductors because of Washington’s export restrictions. FT
    • Japan eco data falls short for Mar, including retail sales (-1.2% M/M vs. the Street -0.7%) and industrial production (-1.1% M/M vs. the Street -0.4%). BBG
    • The euro-area economy grew 0.4% last quarter, more than expected, though is yet to feel the full force of US tariffs. The German and French economies returned to growth. BBG

    A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newquawk

    APAC stocks failed to sustain the positive handover from Wall St and traded mixed at month-end as the region digested a slew of data including disappointing Chinese official PMIs, while there was a muted reaction and very few surprises from US President Trump's speech to commemorate his first 100 days back in office. ASX 200 eked mild gains as strength in tech, healthcare and financials offset the losses in the utilities and commodity-related sectors but with the upside limited after firmer-than-expected CPI data saw money markets fully price out the chances of a larger 50bps RBA rate cut in May. Nikkei 225 was choppy with the upside contained following disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales, while the BoJ also kick-started its two-day policy meeting and there were some comments from a group representing major foreign automakers which noted that President Trump's latest tariff order for autos provides some relief but more must be done. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive after official Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs disappointed although Caixin Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts, while the mainland heads into a five-day weekend owing to Labor Day holiday closures and participants also reflected on key earnings releases including disappointing results from China's Big 4 banks.

    Top Asian News

    • Chinese President Xi says China is to adjust economic plans based on global change; to promote transformation of traditional industries; says they are to stabilize markets and expectations Urges to address weak links in economy. Urges to achieve goals in all aspects. Says to understand impact of changes in international situation. Says China to optimize economic planning based on situations. Urges measures to stabilize employment. Says to promote transformation of traditional industries. Says China to adjust economic plan based on global change. Says China needs to adapt to changing situations.
    • China NPC standing committee passed the private sector promotion law which will take effect from May 20th.
    • Australian Treasurer Chalmers said the market expects more interest rate cuts after inflation figures and he doesn't see anything in the data as substantially altering market expectations.

    European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) opened mostly firmer and have traded tentatively within a tight range ahead of the day’s key risk events. European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Media (lifted by post-earning strength in UMG) and Telecoms takes the top spots, whilst Travel & Leisure and Basic Resources underperform. rnings include: Mercedes Benz (-0.8%) down Y/Y, high uncertainty noted; Volkswagen (U/C) miss, expects results at lower-end of guidance; UBS (+0.2%) beat; Stellantis (+1.5%) in-line, suspends guidance; Barclays (-0.3%) beat, upgrades NII guidance; GSK (+4%) beat; TotalEnergies (-3.2%) mixed, continue buybacks, confident in growth objective; ASM International (U/C) orders & margin beat; Air France (+1.6%) beat, confirms outlook; Iberdrola (-1.3%) mixed, expect strong performance ahead.

    Top European News

    • Germany's SPD has approved the coalition deal with the CDU/CSU, via Reuters citing sources. SPD's Klingbeil will be the Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister of the new German Government, according to German media.

    FX

    • DXY is currently building on Tuesday's gains in quiet trade. The two main drivers for price action were relief on the tariff front (autos) and soft US data (JOLTS and Consumer Confidence). Data will likely provide some impetus for the Greenback today with Q1 GDP/PCE and monthly PCE due on the docket. Q1 GDP may be seen as stale in some quarters given its precedes the announcement of US tariffs. DXY has ventured as high as 99.43 with Monday's peak at 99.83.
    • EUR softer vs. the USD in what has been a busy morning of data which kicked off with steady French GDP, hot French inflation and in-line German GDP which saw the nation avoid a technical recession, but ultimately showed a Y/Y contraction. Thereafter, Eurozone GDP exceeded expectations (Q/Q 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2%) but failed to have any sway on the EUR given that it doesn't capture the impact of Trump's tariffs (aside from some potential front-loading of orders).
    • USD/JPY is higher after Japanese Industrial Production and Retail Sales disappointed overnight, prompting concerns over a negative outturn for Q1 GDP. Attention now turns to the BoJ, where the Bank is expected to keep rates steady. USD/JPY is north of Tuesday's high at 142.75 but is yet to approach the 143 mark.
    • GBP is slightly softer vs. the USD and EUR with fresh macro drivers on the light side. Tier 2 data via the Lloyds Business Barometer and Nationwide House Index had little sway on GBP. On the trade front, the Guardian reports that US officials have split trade negotiations into three phases; the UK has reportedly been placed in either phase two or three. UK officials are also concerned that any EU-UK deal could make negotiations with the US more challenging.
    • AUD is the marginal outperformer across the majors on account of firm inflation metrics overnight (Q/Q 0.9% vs. exp. 0.8%, Y/Y 2.4% vs. exp. 2.3%).
    • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2014 vs exp. 7.2670 (Prev. 7.2029).

    Fixed Income

    • A relatively contained start to the session with USTs holding onto Tuesday’s spoils, firmer by a handful of ticks in a 112-03 to 112-09 band. Limited resistance in the near-term, nothing of particular note until 114-03+ from early April and thereafter 114-10. On the data front, the docket begins with ADP as a preview into Friday’s NFP. Thereafter, Q1 GDP, PCE and Employment Costs due. Afterwards, we get the monthly PCE figure.
    • Bunds began the morning holding at the top-end of Tuesday’s 131.16-46 parameters, in-fitting with USTs. Then, after the European cash equity open, EGBs began to gradually pick up and despite being knocked briefly by marginally hotter German state CPI metrics than mainland consensus implies, Bunds are at a fresh 131.74 peak. EZ GDP metrics came in above expectations, but ultimately had little impact on the complex given the survey period does not include the implementation of Trump tariffs. German 2041 & 2044 outings were mixed, but ultimately had little impact on the complex.
    • Gilts are outperforming, gapped higher by just over 10 ticks and then in-fitting with EGBs after the cash equity open began to extend higher and hit a 93.68 high for the session. Strength occurs despite a lack of fresh drivers in today’s session thus far aside from supply, an auction that came in strong with another b/c well clear of the 3x mark and a slim tail. Results sparked a modest bid in Gilts but one that occurred within existing 93.35-68 confines.
    • UK sells GBP 4.5bln 4.375% 2028 Gilt: b/c 3.48x (prev. 3.27x), average yield 3.834% (prev. 4.263%) & tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.4bps).
    • Germany sells EUR 1.143bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.60% 2041 and EUR 0.452bln vs exp. EUR 0.5bln 2.50% 2044 Bunds.

    Commodities

    • Crude is softer for the third session in a row following yesterday's slide which now sees WTI back under USD 60/bbl. Desks pin the downside to ongoing tariff risks alongside expectations of OPEC+ further opening the taps. Furthermore, the bearish Private Inventory report on Tuesday only adds to the downbeat mood. Brent July in a USD 62.17-63.34/bbl range.
    • Precious metals are lower across the board amid a firmer dollar intraday and following US President Trump softening the Auto tariffs, which further unwinds some risk premium. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,280.28-3,328.16/oz range at the time of writing, within Monday's USD 3,268-3,353.20/oz range.
    • Hefty losses across base metals against the backdrop of a firmer dollar coupled with a cautious risk tone. 3M LME copper is currently in a USD 9,206.17-9,436.60/t range at the time of writing.
    • Equinor (EQNR NO) CEO says European gas storage is low, expect a tight market during refilling. Europe will need 200-300 extra LNG cargoes to refill storage this year.
    • US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +3.8mln (exp. +0.5mln), Distillate -2.5mln (exp. -1.7mln), Gasoline -3.1mln (exp. -1.2mln), Cushing +0.7mln.
    • Chile's Codelco Chairman said April Copper production +22% Y/Y.

    Geopolitics: Middle East

    • "Israeli government statement: On Netanyahu's instructions, the army carried out a strike against a group that tried to attack the Druze in Sahnaya (Syria)", via Sky News Arabia.
    • Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi says US sanctions send a negative message during the nuclear talks; E3 will hold talks in Rome on Friday and with the US on Saturday.
    • UK forces participated in a joint operation with US forces against a Houthi military target in Yemen, while the UK said the strike was conducted after dark when the likelihood of any civilians being in the area was reduced and all aircraft returned safely.

    Geopoltiics: Ukraine

    • Kremlin spokesperson says settlement should be reached with Ukraine, and not the US, via Tass "We are working very intensively with the US on Ukraine".
    • US President Trump said he thinks Russian President Putin wants peace but he was not happy when he saw Putin shooting missiles, according to ABC News.
    • White House Press Secretary said President Trump is confident the Ukraine minerals deal will be signed.

    Geopolitics: Other

    • Pakistan's Information Minister said they have credible evidence that India is planning "military aggression" against Pakistan within 24-36 hours.
    • North Korea conducted the first test firing of a new warship, according to Yonhap. It was also reported that South Korean intelligence assessed that North Korea's combat capabilities have improved and that North Korea suffered 600 deaths during its dispatch of troops to Russia, while South Korean intelligence is monitoring a possible surprise summit between North Korea and the US.

    US Event Calendar

    • 7:00 am: Apr 25 MBA Mortgage Applications -4.2%, prior -12.7%
    • 8:15 am: Apr ADP Employment Change, est. 115k, prior 155k
    • 8:30 am: 1Q A GDP Annualized QoQ, est. -0.15%, prior 2.4%
    • 8:30 am: 1Q A Personal Consumption, est. 1.16%, prior 4%
    • 8:30 am: 1Q A GDP Price Index, est. 3.1%, prior 2.3%
    • 8:30 am: 1Q A Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 3.1%, prior 2.6%
    • 8:30 am: 1Q Employment Cost Index, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9%
    • 9:45 am: Apr MNI Chicago PMI, est. 45.9, prior 47.6
    • 10:00 am: Mar Personal Income, est. 0.4%, prior 0.8%
    • 10:00 am: Mar Personal Spending, est. 0.6%, prior 0.4%
    • 10:00 am: Mar PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0%, prior 0.3%
    • 10:00 am: Mar PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.2%, prior 2.5%
    • 10:00 am: Mar Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4%
    • 10:00 am: Mar Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.8%
    • 10:00 am: Mar Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 1%, prior 2%

    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    Welcome to the end of 100 days of Trump 2.0 with markets currently in a period of rare calm over this period. Indeed yesterday the S&P 500 (+0.58%) advanced for a 6th consecutive session and marking its best 6-day run (+7.81%) since March 2022. Interestingly, the latest gain means the index is now out of technical correction territory again, and now “only” stands -9.49% beneath its record high in mid-February and -1.94% below pre Liberation Day levels. This comes ahead of Microsoft and Meta’s earnings after the bell tonight and Amazon and Apple tomorrow. So these will go a long way towards dictating the sentiment of markets given we’re out of the most intense gravitation pull of Liberation Day now. It feels that in the last month or so AI has hardly been discussed as an investment theme after 2 years where it was the only game in town.

    The main trigger for yesterday’s risk-on mood were headlines that Trump would announce some auto tariff relief ahead of tariffs on auto parts coming into force next weekend. The measures, signed later in day, prevent tariffs on autos and on steel and aluminium from stacking up on top of each other and provides partial rebates for domestic car makers on imported auto parts for the first two years. The President framed the move as giving companies “a little flexibility” at a rally yesterday evening, at which Trump also renewed his criticism of Fed Chair Powell, saying he's "not really doing a good job".

    Those tariff headlines supported markets in spite of a weak batch of economic data. That included the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence indicator, which fell to 86.0 in April (vs. 88.0 expected). Not only is that the weakest since May 2020 at the height of the pandemic, but the expectations component saw an even bigger slump to 54.4, marking its lowest since October 2011 when the post-GFC recovery was stalling and the Euro Crisis was escalating. In the meantime, the latest JOLTS report also showed job openings fell to a 6-month low in March of 7.192m (vs. 7.5m expected). Obviously that’s covering a period before Liberation Day, so markets weren’t too focused on that, but it still meant that the ratio of vacancies per unemployed individuals fell to 1.02, which is its lowest so far this cycle.

    The read across for risk assets was probably limited by the fact that the Conference Board reading is still a survey and while the surveys have been consistently negative of late, hard data have been mostly holding up. So it didn’t lead to a major re-assessment about the growth outlook in the way that a negative jobs report might have done. On top of that, the details of the JOLTS report did include some more positive elements, as the quits rate of those voluntarily quitting their job hit an 8-month high of 2.1%. It also didn’t show an escalation in layoffs, as the layoffs and discharges rate fell back to a 9-month low of 1.0%. So it meant investors could still plausibly believe the narrative that a recession would be avoided, even if sentiment had taken a big hit.

    However, the more negative data immediately led investors to price in more Fed rate cuts this year. For instance, the amount of cuts priced by December moved up to 97bps, which is the highest since April 8, just before Trump announced the 90-day tariff extension. In turn, that led Treasury yields to fall across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-4.4bps) falling to 3.65%, its lowest level since October, whilst the 10yr yield (-3.6bps) fell to 4.17%.

    Looking forward, we’ll get a key piece of data today with the Q1 GDP release. Obviously that’s backward-looking and covers the period before Liberation Day, but it will give a strong indication of the extent to which people might have tried to import goods to get ahead of the tariffs. Indeed, yesterday we found that the goods trade deficit hit a record $162bn in March (vs. $145bn expected). So that led to a decent hit in GDP trackers, given that imports subtract from GDP growth. Indeed, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q1 is now at an annualised contraction of -2.7%, and their alternative model that adjusts for imports and exports of gold is still at a contractionary -1.5%. And our own US economists have updated their expectation to a real GDP to contraction of -0.9% in Q1 due to the surge in imports (see their note here). If today’s number does show a decline, that would be the first quarterly contraction since Q1 2022.

    For now at least, equities continued their rally, with the S&P 500 (+0.58%) moving up to its highest level since Liberation Day, led by financials (+0.97%) and materials (+0.93%). Energy stocks (-0.37%) underperformed as Brent crude oil fell -2.44% to $64.25/bbl. Over in Europe, there was also a strong performance, with the STOXX 600 (+0.36%) posting a 6th consecutive gain as well, whilst the DAX (+0.69%) outperformed. The DAX has now entirely erased its losses since Liberation Day, leaving the index +0.16% above its level on April 2 and +12.64% YTD as opposed to -5.45% for the S&P 500. Meanwhile in the UK, the FTSE 100 (+0.55%) posted a 12th consecutive gain, which made it the longest run of gains since 2017.

    Overnight S&P 500 (-0.47%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.64%) futures have fallen, not helped by a -17% after hours drop in Super Micro Computers after posting disappointing results. This is a company that was a darling of the AI world and peaked out at around 118 early in 2024 and will likely open in the low 30s today. The rest of Asia is largely consolidating with the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.24%), Nikkei (+0.17%) and Hang Seng (+0.22) seeing small gains but with mainland Chinese stocks broadly flat. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (-0.60%) is lagging behind its regional peers.

    Coming back to China, the official manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.0 in April this morning, falling short of the expected 49.7 and significantly lower than the previous month's 50.5. This contraction is clearly being attributed to the escalating trade war with the US. The non-manufacturing PMI also disappointed, dropping to 50.4 in April, below the anticipated 50.6 and down from 50.8 in March. Consequently, China’s composite PMI decreased to 50.2 in April from 51.4 in March, barely remaining above the 50 expansion threshold.

    Elsewhere, Australia's Q1 inflation edged up to +2.4% year-over-year (expected +2.3%), holding at a four-year low. The RBA's preferred trimmed mean inflation rate fell from a revised +3.3% to +2.9% in March (expected +2.8%). The data is likely to reinforce the central bank's cautious stance and dampen expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts in the near term. Against this background, the Australian dollar is holding on to its gains, strengthening +0.27% to trade at 0.6401 against the dollar. Meanwhile, yields on the 3yr policy sensitive government bonds are -0.7bps lower settling at 3.31% as we go to print.

    Turning to back Germany, today is an important one in the process to forming a new government, as the vote of the SPD membership on the coalition treaty concludes. In light of this, our economists have put out a fresh note going through that vote (link here), as well as the fiscal timelines for the 2025 budget. Their view is that there is little event risk from the SPD vote, and that they don’t expect any additional fiscal support measures (beyond the coalition treaty) unless there are tangible signs of the trade shock materialising.

    Finally in Europe, sovereign bonds put in a decent performance across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (-2.3bps), OATs (-1.9bps) and BTPs (-2.1bps) all falling back. That came as the European Commission’s latest economic sentiment indicator fell by more than expected in April, down to a 4-month low of 93.6 (vs. 94.5 expected). Separately, the ECB’s survey of consumer inflation expectations showed 1yr expectations up to +2.9%, the highest since April.

    To the day ahead now, and US data releases include PCE inflation for March, Q1 GDP, the Q1 Employment Cost Index, and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for April. Meanwhile in Europe, we’ll get the flash CPI reading for April from Germany, France and Italy, along with German unemployment for April. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Muller, Villeroy and Makhlouf. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Microsoft, Meta and Caterpillar.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 08:17
  47. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 8 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Super Micro Tanks On Disappointing Preliminary Results

    Shares of Super Micro Computer plunged in premarket trading in New York after the U.S.-based technology company reported preliminary third-quarter results that missed Bloomberg Consensus estimates. 

    Analysts at JPMorgan do not believe the revenue miss signals a broader industry demand slowdown. Meanwhile, Goldman analysts recently revised their peak data center capacity forecasts forward from late 2026 to this year. 

    "During Q3 some delayed customer platform decisions moved sales into Q4," Super Micro wrote in a business update and preliminary financial results press release on Tuesday evening, adding that it also saw "higher inventory reserves resulting from older generation products."

    Super Micro produces, designs, and manufactures high-performance servers, storage systems, and networking equipment. It's a key supplier of data center hardware, and preliminary results may paint an ominous outlook for the artificial intelligence bubble. 

    The preannouncement forecasted third-quarter revenue between $4.5 billion and $4.6 billion, with earnings per share of 29 to 31 cents — both well below the prior guidance of $5 billion to $6 billion in revenue and earnings per share of 46 to 62 cents.

    Goldman analysts Michael Ng and others provided their first take on the preannouncement:

    Bottom line: SMCI should trade lower on the negative preannouncement which includes a revenue miss – at least in part driven by customer platform decision delays into next quarter – as well as a 220 bps gross margins qoq decline on higher inventory reserves on old products and new product expedite costs. We view read-throughs to the broader AI infrastructure group (e.g., DELL, ANET) as negative given the reference to platform decision delays and the gross margin pressure.

    SMCI negatively pre-announced F3Q25 with a revenue, gross margin, and EPS miss. Revenue of $4.5-$4.6 bn missed GS/consensus of $5.3/$5.4 bn (prior guidance of $5.0-$6.0 bn) with SMCI citing customer delays into F4Q. Gross margins of 9.7% declined 220 bps qoq and reflected higher inventory reserves from older generation product and expedite costs to enable time-to-market for new products. EPS of $0.29-$0.31 missed GS/consensus of $0.53/$0.53 (prior guidance of $0.46-$0.62). SMCI will have its earnings call on May 6 after-market.

    Ng is "Sell" rated on Super Micro ...

    Here's additional analyst commentary on Super Micro (courtesy of Bloomberg):

    Bloomberg Intelligence

    • "Super Micro's preannounced 15% 3Q sales miss vs. prior guidance is indicative of a reliance on mega-AI deals," but "sustained product-design wins suggest AI-server activity could still be intact, despite economic concerns"

    JPMorgan (neutral, PT to $36 from $39)

    • The magnitude of the Super Micro miss is not representative of industry-wide challenges

    • "Given the limited visibility around the opportunity for SMCI to completely catch up to the revenue push-out in the next quarter"

    Citi (neutral, PT $39)

    • "The company cited gross margin declined 220bps qq (Street at 12.0%) on higher inventory reserves and expedite costs, while some customer platform decisions were delayed, shifting sales to 4Q"

    Lynx Equity Strategies

    • "Investor concern is obviously going to be whether the much- anticipated AI capex cuts" is hurting SMCI, but "we do not think there has been a fundamental change in end market dynamics"

    • "Whereas there could be some churn in orders from data centers, we think the US-based nature of SMCI's production renders their shipments to US customers relatively safe"

    Remember last year, when Super Micro delayed its annual report and Ernst & Young abruptly resigned as auditor — a double whammy that sent shares crashing.

    As of Tuesday's close, shares remain 70% below the all-time high of nearly $120 a share, established in early 2024. Shares have yet to recover - and crashed more in premarket on the negative preannouncement, down around 18% at the $29 handle.

    Will end with pointing readers to Goldman's note from three weeks ago, which highlights that the peak data center capacity forecast was revised and brought forward (read: here). 

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 08:05
  48. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 8 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Mercedes Cites "Tariffs & Volatility" In Yet Another Withdrawal Of Guidance For Automakers

    Some of Europe's largest automakers have withdrawn their financial guidance for the year, citing mounting macroeconomic uncertainty sparked by President Trump's trade war. While Trump signed an order Tuesday easing specific auto tariffs, Mercedes-Benz Group still withdrew its full-year outlook.

    "The current volatility with regard to tariff policies, mitigation measures and resulting potential direct and indirect effects in particular on customer behaviour and demand is too high to reliably assess the business development for the remainder of the year," Mercedes warned in an earnings press release for the first quarter. 

    Mercedes ships Europe-made vehicles via cargo ships to North America while also producing SUVs, luxury vehicles, EVs, and vans at its Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and Charleston, South Carolina plants.

    At its Tuscaloosa plant, Mercedes manufactures SUVs such as the GLE, GLS, GLE Coupe, and the ultra-luxury Mercedes-Maybach GLS, as well as electric models like the EQE and EQS SUVs. In Charleston, the company produces both the Sprinter and e-Sprinter vans. 

    On Tuesday evening, President Trump signed an executive order aimed at easing the burden of auto-related tariffs. The order includes provisions to lower duties on steel, aluminum, and foreign-made parts, and prevents multiple tariffs from stacking on a single vehicle. However, the 25% tariff on imported vehicles entering the US remains in place. 

    Under the order, additional 25% tariffs on auto parts will begin on May 3, but vehicles that go through final assembly in the US will qualify for partial reimbursements on those levies for two years. 

    At a rally in Michigan, Trump told the crowd his administration will "slaughter them [automakers] if they don't" re-shore critical supply chains of parts to the US.

    Trump announces a rollback in his tariff policy for automobiles, but then says "we give them a little time before we slaughter them if they don't do this." pic.twitter.com/VyOaVXQi9c

    — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 29, 2025

    In addition to Mercedes, Stellantis NV, Volvo Car, and General Motors have all pulled their full-year forecasts because of tariffs. 

    Volkswagen has left its outlook unchanged for the year but warned it has yet to factor in the tariffs, while Aston Martin has announced plans to limit shipments of its luxury sports cars to the US.

    Goldman analyst Jeremy Elster commented on the European auto industry...

    AUTOS... trading flat on the day despite the guidance suspensions and cuts.  Tariff relief is part of the explanation. Perhaps not directly, but because it hints at willingness to bend to industry pressuree on relief (more on tariff relief details from mark Delaney here). Going through the prints today:

    • Mercedes miss & suspend guide. Saying guide would be in tact were it not for tariffs, which makes P911 material downgrades PRE tariff impacts yesterday look even worse in hindsight. The MBG 1Q is a bit better in the details; Cars margin 7.3% vs cons 6.9%, and yet another strong cash quarter (Ind FCF 2,405m vs consensus 1,790m, a 34% beat), albeit this is somewhat overshadowed by the specific cash comment on tariffs; "negative impacts on the cash conversion rates of the automotive segments cannot be ruled out either".  On the call, company saying fy impact of tariffs from here would be around -300bps to Cars margins (i.e. annualised impact would be higher)… implies material downgrades (as much as 400bps vs 7% margin guide starting point, pre mitigation).

    • VW first take is worse of the two German prints. Difficult to marry the optimism we heard from the company through q1 with another margins miss at Brand Group Core, but perhaps tailwinds from stronger Europe production become more evident over q2/q3. Headline group ebit is a -7% miss, margins are a 20bps miss, cash flow is more or less in-line.  Guide is moved to low end of the range, but does not include any impact from tariffs.

    • STLAM 1Q is revenues only, but also a small miss (-1% vs consensus). Net price -3.4% looks a little worse than feared. Guidance is suspended. Inventories ticked up slightly vs Q4 to support better expected deliveries in Europe in Q2. We've started to field some more, very hesitant, constructive incoming on STLA given tariff relief in US (relative to German OEMs), but for the stock to turn the market will need more confidence on cash and market share stabilisation.

    The trade war adds to the problems for European automakers, who face muted demand across Europe and rising competition from Chinese brands, including BYD. 

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 07:45
  49. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 8 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Education Department Finds University Of Pennsylvania Violated Title IX Over Transgender Swimmer

    Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) remains in violation of Title IX regulations lingering from a transgender-identifying athlete’s victory in an NCAA women’s swimming title for the school in 2022 and will have 10 days to resolve the issue before the matter is referred to the Department of Justice, federal officials said on April 28.

    Students walk between classes in front of College Hall on the campus of the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia on Sept. 25, 2017. Charles Mostoller/Reuters

    The announcement was made after the Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights sent a notice of noncompliance to UPenn President Larry Jameson.

    Jameson was informed that in addition to complying with current NCAA regulations and President Donald Trump’s February executive order prohibiting males from competing in women’s sports, UPenn was required to relinquish that athlete’s 2022 championship title and issue an apology to the female athletes he defeated.

    The Ivy League school is also expected to issue a statement asserting that all its athletic programs comply with Title IX.

    Title IX is a federal law enacted in 1972 that prohibits educational institutions receiving federal funding from engaging in sex discrimination and assures fairness for NCAA women’s sports programs. President Joe Biden interpreted Title IX to allow people to participate on sports based on their gender identities instead of based on their biological sex, and Trump reversed that under his executive order.

    UPenn must also restore to female athletes their rightful records, titles, and honors, “or similar recognition for Division I swimming competitions misappropriated by male athletes competing in female categories.”

    In addition, “the university must send a letter to each female athlete whose individual recognition is restored, expressing an apology on behalf of the university for allowing her educational experience to be marred by sex discrimination,” the April 28 news release said.

    In 2022, transgender-identifying UPenn student Lia Thomas won a Division I NCAA women’s swimming championship in the 500-yard freestyle event after competing on the men’s team from 2017–2020.

    Riley Gaines, a former Kentucky women’s swimmer who competed against Thomas, and Paula Scanlan, a former teammate of Thomas’s who had to share a locker room with the male athlete identifying as transgender, have lobbied against men’s participation in women’s sports.

    “Little girls who look up to Riley Gaines and Paula Scanlan can find hope in today’s action—the Trump administration will not allow male athletes to invade female private spaces or compete in female categories,” Craig Trainor, Department of Education acting assistant secretary for civil rights, said in the news release.

    “UPenn has a choice to … do the right thing for its female students and come into full compliance with Title IX immediately, or continue to advance an extremist political project that violates federal antidiscrimination law and puts UPenn’s federal funding at risk.”

    The news release does not identify Thomas by name, but it does specify that these events are linked to the NCAA Division I swimming championships.

    The Trump administration has already suspended $175 million of UPenn’s federal funding over issues related to the transgender-identifying swimmer.

    The Epoch Times reached out to UPenn for comment.

    In a March 20 statement, the school noted that it was complying with Trump’s executive orders prohibiting men from competing in women’s sports.

    “Penn is in full compliance with this most recent change,” the statement said. “The university’s athletic programs have always operated within the framework provided by the federal government, the NCAA, and our conference.”

    The Department of Justice recently announced that it will file a lawsuit against Maine for allowing high school transgender-identifying male athletes to compete on the state’s women’s teams.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 07:20
  50. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 9 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    US NatGas Deemed "Oversold" By Goldman Ahead Of Summer

    Samantha Dart, Goldman's co-head of Global Commodities Research, told clients on Tuesday that U.S. natural gas prices appear oversold and reaffirmed a bullish price forecast for the summer period, citing tightening market fundamentals. 

    "Upside to Sum25 Henry Hub from here. On net, we continue to see U.S. gas prices as oversold. With net long positions by managed money now more normalized and fundamentals tightening into peak summer as discussed above, we maintain our Bal Sum25 Henry Hub forecast of $3.90/mmBtu," Dart said. 

    Dart noted that NatGas production may remain elevated into the early summer months, longer than she previously anticipated, though she expects a decline to begin in June. She explained that the recent surge in output is primarily due to previously drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) and delayed turn-in-line wells (DTILs) now coming online, describing this as a temporary phenomenon: 

    The elevated U.S. natural gas production we flagged recently might last longer into this summer than we expect, but production will ultimately move lower. To be sure, we still expect lower Appalachia production sequentially, as a weather-driven decline in Northeast heating demand pressures local wellhead prices lower1 . However, production levels might ultimately remain above our expectations into early summer. To be clear, EQT commented last week during its earnings call that this surge in production has been largely due to wells that had been previously inventoried - as drilled but uncompleted (DUCs) or delayed turn-in-lines (DTILs) - but are now producing, which we think is consistent with a strong price incentive from 1Q25 Henry Hub having averaged in the high $3s/mmBtu, with local Appalachia prices not far behind. This suggests a one-off boost to local production, with heavy declines rates for the new wells likely setting in from June.

    In the Northeast, particularly in Appalachia, Dart said production will likely slide as weak local prices, driven mainly through reduced heating demand, put pressure on wellhead economics. She pointed out that U.S. power burns have recovered faster than modeled, with increased coal-to-gas switching:

    C2G starting to respond. At the same time, power burns have started to recover vs our modeled expectations, suggesting that utilities are likely increasing C2G switching following the drop in gas prices. The gas share of U.S. thermal generation has started to rise and is now at the highest level year to date at 70%.

    She pointed out that NatGas-fired generation now accounts for 70% of U.S. thermal generation, the highest level so far this year. 

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 06:55

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