Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal judge in California has barred U.S. Border Patrol agents from arresting suspected illegal immigrants within parts of the state without a warrant or specific evidence that the individual poses a flight risk—while delivering a rebuke to tactics used during a controversial January enforcement sweep.

Border Patrol agents wait for the arrival of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for a visit to the US-Mexico border in Sunland Park, New Mexico, on Feb. 3, 2025. AP Photo/Andres Leighton, File

In an April 29 order, U.S. District Judge Jennifer L. Thurston issued a preliminary injunction against the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Border Patrol, siding with the United Farm Workers and five Kern County residents who sued after the raid, dubbed “Operation Return to Sender,” unfolded across the Bakersfield area earlier this year.

The plaintiffs, represented by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), alleged in their Feb. 26 complaint that the sweep violated their Fourth and Fifth Amendment rights, along with federal immigration statutes governing warrantless arrests and due process.

Under Thurston’s order, Border Patrol agents operating in California’s Eastern District are now prohibited from making detentions or arrests without first establishing reasonable suspicion of unlawful presence in the country and, for arrests, probable cause that the individual is likely to flee before a warrant can be obtained.

“The evidence before the Court is that Border Patrol agents under DHS authority engaged in conduct that violated well-established constitutional rights,” Thurston wrote in the ruling.

The court also restricted the agency’s use of “voluntary departure,” a process by which illegal immigrants agree to leave the United States without a hearing before an immigration judge. Going forward, agents must clearly inform individuals of their rights and obtain genuine, informed consent before initiating such removals.

The judge further ordered DHS to submit regular reports documenting any warrantless stops or arrests, along with justifications, for the duration of litigation. She also instructed DHS to issue written guidelines clarifying the legal threshold for initiating stops.

“This guidance shall include, among other things, that refusal to answer questions does not, without more, constitute a basis for reasonable suspicion to justify a detentive stop,” she wrote.

The case stems from allegations that, beginning in early January 2025, dozens of Border Patrol agents traveled more than 300 miles inland from the U.S.–Mexico border to Bakersfield, targeting predominantly Latino neighborhoods and day laborer gathering spots without individualized suspicion.

The plaintiffs described “Operation Return to Sender” as a sweeping dragnet based on racial and occupational profiling, claiming agents pulled over vehicles, blocked parked cars, conducted warrantless searches, and detained people without evidence of unlawful presence.

Once in custody, detainees were allegedly transported to a facility near the border, denied access to attorneys, and pressured into signing “voluntary departure” forms without understanding the consequences—a process plaintiffs described as “summary expulsion” that can carry long-term reentry bans.

Once in custody, detainees claimed they were transported to a Border Patrol facility near the border, where they were denied access to lawyers and coerced into signing “voluntary departure” forms under misleading pretenses, which they described as a “form of summary expulsion.”

Attorneys for the Justice Department argued the case should be dismissed, claiming the plaintiffs lacked standing and that no official policy mandated unlawful stops or arrests. They further contended that any potential violations were isolated incidents, not part of a broader pattern, and that the lawsuit had become moot after DHS issued revised internal guidance.

But the court rejected those arguments, finding that the plaintiffs demonstrated a credible threat of repeated harm. Thurston wrote that the new DHS policy did not eliminate the risk of future violations and “could be withdrawn or altered in the future” without constraint.

The Epoch Times contacted the Justice Department and the ACLU with requests for comment on the ruling.

There were good and bad news in today's GDP report.

Starting with the bad news, Q1 GDP printed -0.3%, worse than the -0.2% expected and the first negative print since Q1 2022 when the economy was in a recession but was subsequently revised out of it

The good news is that the drop was actually supposed to be much worse (recall the Atlanta Fed's latest GDP estimate was -2.7%, or -1.5% excluding record gold imports). Indeed, if one looks at the components of today's GDP print one finds that the number was actually unexpectedly strong, if one strips out the two negative components, net trade and government.

As shown in the chart below, Q1 GDP comprised of the following components:

• Personal Consumption 1.21%, down from 2.70%, but translating into an annualized Personal Consumption print of 1.8%, much higher than the 1.2% expected
• Fixed investment jumped to 1.34%, up from -0.2% and the highest since Q2 2023 as the BEA finally starts tracking data center investment correctly
• Change in private inventories surged 2.25%, as expected, on the pre-tariff restocking; this number was up from a -0.84% drop last quarter and is expected to reverse in coming quarters as inventories are sold off.
• Government spending was a negative -0.25%, the first negative print for Joe Biden's favorite "plug" to push GDP higher since 2022.
• Finally, and most importantly, net trade (exports less imports) was a whopping 4.830% hit to the final GDP number, a 5% swing from the +0.26% contribution in Q4. This was entirely the result of soaring imports (of which gold was about half) in Q1 which hit GDP by a near record 5.03%. Just like inventories, this number will now reverse in coming quarters as tariff frontrunning ends and is reversed.

And visually:

Taking a closer look at the import contribution to GDP, which was the biggest swing factor, one can see that at 5.03%, this was the 2nd highest on record with just the outlier covid shock bigger. In other words, absent economic shock, this was a record quarterly print.

In its commentary, the BEA confirmed as much, writing that "the decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports."

Compared to the fourth quarter, the downturn in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an upturn in imports, a deceleration in consumer spending, and a downturn in government spending that were partly offset by upturns in investment and exports.

Turning to inflation, the BEA reported that the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent.

Putting these in context, GDP Price index of 3.7% came in hotter than the 3.1% expected, while the core PCE of 3.5% was also hotter than the 3.1%.

Bottom line, the GDP number was much stronger than expected, in fact it was a whopping 2.4% higher than the now laughable AtlantaFed GDP forecast, and if anything this positions the Trump admin for a surprise bounce in Q2 and/or Q3 when all the outlier prints from Q1 are reversed.

US equity futures slipped ahead of key GDP and PCE data. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% while Nasdaq 100 contracts lose 0.5%, with Mag 7 names mostly lower (NVDA -1.4%, TSLA -1.1% and META -0.6%) as weak earnings weighed on risk sentiment after Super Micro plunged 16% ahead of Microsoft and Meta numbers later on Wednesday. Bond yields are lower by 1bps to 4.15% while the USD is higher. Overnight, China’s factory PMI slipped into the worst contraction since December 2023 (49 vs 49.7 cons) due to the negative impact of higher US tariffs, while Trump at a rally in Michigan renewed his criticism of Powell, noting he is "not really doing a good job" and that he knows more about interest rates. This morning, Euro Area flash CPI has been mixed, while Q1 GDP data was slightly firmer than expected at 1.2% YoY (vs 1.1% cons). Commodities are mixed: oil is 1.8% lower; previous metals are lower, while base metals are mostly higher. After yesterday’s close, earnings were modestly negative. Particularly, SBUX fell 6.7% on missed earnings amid margin pressure and top-line growth. BKNG commented that there is a moderation in inbound travel into the US, but so far the global leisure travel demand has been stable. Looking ahead today, we have ADP employment, Q1 GDP, PCE and employment cost index. There are no Fed speakers scheduled given blackout ahead of May's FOMC meeting.

In premarket trading the Mag7 stocks were mostly lower (Alphabet -0.1%, Amazon -0.6%, Apple -0.4%, Meta Platforms -0.9%, Microsoft +0.1%, Nvidia -2%, Tesla -1.3%). First Solar tumbled 12% after the maker of electricity-producing solar modules cut earnings guidance for this year due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Norwegian Cruise Line dropped 7% after warning that cruise demand, which has long defied worrying travel trends, is beginning to weaken.  Snap plunged 13% after the company declined to issue a sales forecast for the current period, saying it is navigating macroeconomic “headwinds” for its advertising business. Starbucks slumped 8% after weaker-than-expected results in the latest quarter amped up pressure for the company’s new management to deliver. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO) rallies 9% after the drugmaker reported sales of its recently approved heart drug, Attruby, that crushed expectations.
• Etsy (ETSY) rises 1% after the online marketplace for crafts reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Freshworks Inc. (FRSH) climbs 9% after the software-as-a-service company boosted its profit and revenue outlook for the year.
• Garmin (GRMN) falls 6% after the maker of GPS-enabled products posted first-quarter results and provided a year forecast.
• Oddity Tech (ODD) jumps 17% after the direct-to-consumer beauty and wellness company boosted its net revenue guidance for the full year to a level above Wall Street expectations.
• Qorvo (QRVO) climbs 8% after the Apple supplier reported adjusted 4Q earnings that topped estimates.
• Regulus Therapeutics (RGLS) shares are halted after the company entered into an agreement to be acquired by Novartis AG.
• Seagate (STX) gains 7% after the computer hardware and storage company reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat the average analyst estimate
• Stride Inc. (LRN) climbs 3% after the online education company boosted its revenue forecast for the full year. Fiscal third-quarter revenue increased 18%.
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) tumbles 16% after giving preliminary results that fell well short of analysts’ estimates, a sign its comeback plan has been slow to gain traction.
• Tenable (TENB) plunges 17% after the cybersecurity company cut its full-year guidance, with analysts noting lower visibility ahead for the stock due to US federal spending uncertainties.
• Wabash National (WNC) falls 13% after the semi-trailer manufacturing company cut its revenue guidance for the full year.

Investors have been cautiously optimistic, with the Nasdaq 100 close to erasing all of its losses this month, after tariff U-turns and speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to prevent a recession.  

“Perhaps we are past peak uncertainty,” Kim Crawford, global rates portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. “The administration has a more conciliatory tone on tariffs and to an extent as well, Fed independence.” Benchmark 10-year Treasuries steadied after six days of gains, with the yield at 4.16%. Gold dropped.

Four of the so-called Magnificent Seven — Microsoft, Apple Inc., Meta and Amazon.com Inc. — are reporting earnings this week. Analysts expect the group — which also includes Google-parent Alphabet Inc., Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. — to deliver an average of 15% profit growth in 2025, a forecast that’s barely budged since the start of March despite the flareup in trade tensions.

“Even if you take out the tariff story outcome I think there is an issue for Big Tech and the market will probably start to refocus on that when we get this earnings season,” Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, told Bloomberg TV. “We still have the issue of the massive amount of capex being spent on Big Tech, they’re overspending on this AI story.”

Economic barometers of US economic health are also due with inflation and GDP data Wednesday that will give a snapshot of activity just before President Donald Trump unleashed country-specific levies on April 2. US real GDP growth likely cooled to a standstill in the first quarter amid disruptions from policy shifts, according to Bloomberg Economics.

Veteran emerging-markets investor Mark Mobius said he’s keeping 95% of his funds’ holdings in cash as he waits out the trade-related uncertainty. Hedge funds are reluctant to make major bets amid the turmoil, with the only significant shift in positioning in April being increased bets against US stocks, Bloomberg reported.

In the latest pivot in Trump’s trade strategy, the US president signed an executive order easing the impact of his auto tariffs, preventing duties on foreign-made vehicles from stacking on top of other levies and lessening charges on parts from overseas used to make vehicles in the US. The news supported sentiment toward European auto stocks Wednesday, with Mercedes-Benz Group AG and Stellantis NV rising even after withdrawing their outlooks for this year, citing the uncertainty of trade barriers. 

In a rally celebrating his first 100 days in office, Trump defended his tariff policies as he marked his 100th day in office. He also renewed criticism of Fed Chair Powell, saying he is “not really doing a good job.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises for a seventh consecutive session, albeit only slightly, as disappointing earnings keep a lid on gains. Travel & leisure stocks are the worst performers. Energy and bank stocks also underperform with notable declines in TotalEnergies and Credit Agricole after their respective updates. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

• Societe Generale shares advanced 5.7% after the French lender beat estimates as equities trading hit a record and it booked a gain on disposals.
• DSV shares rise as much as 11% after the Danish logistics firm gave a reassuring set of results, with analysts highlighting the synergies it set out from its DB Schenker deal.
• Schindler shares gain as much as 8.2% after the Swiss elevator and escalator maker reported impressive 1Q results with a dynamic order intake and no change in guidance despite US tariffs.
• Stellantis shares rise as much as 4.2% in Milan after the carmaker released a trading update which Bernstein said included some positives, with pricing ahead of expectations in all key regions.
• VW shares rise as much as 1.4% after the German carmaker reiterated its full-year guidance, a move JPMorgan called a positive signal.
• Deutsche Post shares rise as much as 4.1% after the delivery firm’s Ebit came in higher than expected in the first quarter, driven by its Express and Post & Parcel divisions and aided by cost-cutting.
• Aixtron shares climb as much as 14% after the German chip-tool company’s first-quarter results showed better-than-expected revenue, order levels and positive free cash flow, according to Warburg.
• Remy shares rise as much as 5.7% as analysts highlighted encouraging signs in the Cognac maker’s earnings, including an improvement in its US market as well as a better outlook for 2026.
• UMG climbs as much as 7.1% as subscription growth helps to deliver first-quarter results above expectations.
• Befesa shares rise as much as 13% after the German recycling company’s full-year earnings guidance surprised to the upside.
• AMS-Osram shares soar 17%, with ZKB analysts saying the Swiss chipmaker reported a good start to the year due to strong performance in its semiconductor business.
• Credit Agricole fell as much as 4.5% as higher-than-expected costs and a tax bill weighed on profit.
• TotalEnergies shares fall as much as 4.3% after the French energy company reported results that were in line with expectations, but also an increase in net debt.
• Mercedes shares drop as much as 2.8% after the carmaker said tariff volatility is too high to give a reliable outlook.
• Evolution shares drop as much as 18%. The gambling operator reported a miss on revenue and Ebitda in the first quarter, which management attributes to actions including ring-fencing regulated markets in Europe and countermeasures to cyberattacks in Asia.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, on track for a fourth-straight day of gains, as investors were encouraged by a continued rally on Wall Street and optimism over potential trade deals with the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7%. Sony was among the biggest boosts after Bloomberg reported it is considering spinning off its semiconductor unit, while AIA climbed on strong quarterly results. The regional benchmark is poised to close April more than 2% higher, wiping out a steep intra-month loss sparked by US tariffs. The market has been looking toward various concessions from Washington as well as individual nations’ negotiations with the US. President Donald Trump on Tuesday signed an executive order easing the impact of his auto tariffs, while news emerged of discussions with South Korea and Australia. China’s manufacturing activity in April saw its worst contraction since December 2023, exposing early signs of weakness in Asia’s biggest economy from the trade war with the US. Shares of Chinese banks were among the biggest drags on equity benchmarks in Hong Kong and mainland China after weak earnings. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed. The Aussie dollar outperforms rising 0.2% against the greenback after core inflation rose more than expected. AUD/USD rose as much as 0.5% to 0.6418 before paring the move; the nation’s core inflation in the first quarter beat estimates, damping expectations of rapid rate cuts. The pound and the yen were among the worst performers, down 0.3% and 0.4% against the dollar respectively.

In rates, treasuries mixed with the long-end outperforming where yields are down around 2bp on the day, supported by wider gains seen across the long-end of Germany and UK bonds after a flurry of European economic data. Ahead of today's quarterly refunding announcement, the 10-year US yield are down 1bps to 4.16%. US yields slightly cheaper across the front-end while richer in the long-end of the curve, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 1.8bp and 2.5bp on the day; US 10-year yields trade down to around 4.16%, richer by 1bp on the day with bunds and gilts outperforming by 2bp and 2.5bp in the sector. European government bonds gain with little reaction shown to a flurry of economic data releases, including a beat for euro-area first quarter GDP. European government bonds rose; German yields were up to 4bps lower across the curve, with gilts mirroring that move; UK 10-year yield down 4bps to 4.40%

In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 1% to $59.80 a barrel. Spot gold falls $36 to around $3,280/oz. Bitcoin is steady near $94,800. 

US economic calendar includes April ADP employment change (8:15am), 1Q advanced GDP (8:30am), April MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am), March personal income/spending, PCE price index, pending home sales (10am). Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the May 7 FOMC meeting

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
• DAX +0.5%, CAC 40 +0.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.16%
• VIX +0.3 points at 24.48
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1222.44
• euro -0.1% at $1.1371
• WTI crude -1.3% at $59.63/barrel

Top Overnight News

• US President Trump said he achieved the 100 most successful days for a president in US history, while he noted a lot of auto jobs and companies are coming in and we're restoring the rule of law and ending the inflation nightmare. Trump renewed his criticism of Jerome Powell, saying the Fed chair’s “not really doing a good job.” He also championed his tariff regime at a rally that came just hours after he signed a pair of executive orders pulling back some of his auto levies.
• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio plans to speak with the foreign ministers of India and Pakistan in an attempt to calm tensions. BBG
• Trump continues to float fresh tax cut proposals while Republicans struggle to agree on ways to lower the cost of the reconciliation bill. Axios
• Top Trump advisor reportedly struggled to soothe investors in talks after market tumult in which Stephen Miran met with hedge funds and big asset managers after tariffs sparked Wall Street turmoil, according to FT.
• China’s factory PMI slipped into the worst contraction since December 2023, revealing early damage of US tariffs. Beijing has created a list of US-made products that would be exempted from its 125% tariffs. BBG
• Chinese sovereign investor CIC is selling about $1 billion of its private equity investment portfolio in the secondary market. The assets are held in a number of funds managed by eight U.S. fund managers, including Blackstone Inc and Carlyle Group. RTRS
• Huawei has started the delivery of its advanced AI chip “cluster” to Chinese clients who are increasing orders after being cut off from Nvidia’s semiconductors because of Washington’s export restrictions. FT
• Japan eco data falls short for Mar, including retail sales (-1.2% M/M vs. the Street -0.7%) and industrial production (-1.1% M/M vs. the Street -0.4%). BBG
• The euro-area economy grew 0.4% last quarter, more than expected, though is yet to feel the full force of US tariffs. The German and French economies returned to growth. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newquawk

APAC stocks failed to sustain the positive handover from Wall St and traded mixed at month-end as the region digested a slew of data including disappointing Chinese official PMIs, while there was a muted reaction and very few surprises from US President Trump's speech to commemorate his first 100 days back in office. ASX 200 eked mild gains as strength in tech, healthcare and financials offset the losses in the utilities and commodity-related sectors but with the upside limited after firmer-than-expected CPI data saw money markets fully price out the chances of a larger 50bps RBA rate cut in May. Nikkei 225 was choppy with the upside contained following disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales, while the BoJ also kick-started its two-day policy meeting and there were some comments from a group representing major foreign automakers which noted that President Trump's latest tariff order for autos provides some relief but more must be done. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive after official Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs disappointed although Caixin Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts, while the mainland heads into a five-day weekend owing to Labor Day holiday closures and participants also reflected on key earnings releases including disappointing results from China's Big 4 banks.

Top Asian News

• Chinese President Xi says China is to adjust economic plans based on global change; to promote transformation of traditional industries; says they are to stabilize markets and expectations Urges to address weak links in economy. Urges to achieve goals in all aspects. Says to understand impact of changes in international situation. Says China to optimize economic planning based on situations. Urges measures to stabilize employment. Says to promote transformation of traditional industries. Says China to adjust economic plan based on global change. Says China needs to adapt to changing situations.
• China NPC standing committee passed the private sector promotion law which will take effect from May 20th.
• Australian Treasurer Chalmers said the market expects more interest rate cuts after inflation figures and he doesn't see anything in the data as substantially altering market expectations.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) opened mostly firmer and have traded tentatively within a tight range ahead of the day’s key risk events. European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Media (lifted by post-earning strength in UMG) and Telecoms takes the top spots, whilst Travel & Leisure and Basic Resources underperform. rnings include: Mercedes Benz (-0.8%) down Y/Y, high uncertainty noted; Volkswagen (U/C) miss, expects results at lower-end of guidance; UBS (+0.2%) beat; Stellantis (+1.5%) in-line, suspends guidance; Barclays (-0.3%) beat, upgrades NII guidance; GSK (+4%) beat; TotalEnergies (-3.2%) mixed, continue buybacks, confident in growth objective; ASM International (U/C) orders & margin beat; Air France (+1.6%) beat, confirms outlook; Iberdrola (-1.3%) mixed, expect strong performance ahead.

Top European News

• Germany's SPD has approved the coalition deal with the CDU/CSU, via Reuters citing sources. SPD's Klingbeil will be the Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister of the new German Government, according to German media.

FX

• DXY is currently building on Tuesday's gains in quiet trade. The two main drivers for price action were relief on the tariff front (autos) and soft US data (JOLTS and Consumer Confidence). Data will likely provide some impetus for the Greenback today with Q1 GDP/PCE and monthly PCE due on the docket. Q1 GDP may be seen as stale in some quarters given its precedes the announcement of US tariffs. DXY has ventured as high as 99.43 with Monday's peak at 99.83.
• EUR softer vs. the USD in what has been a busy morning of data which kicked off with steady French GDP, hot French inflation and in-line German GDP which saw the nation avoid a technical recession, but ultimately showed a Y/Y contraction. Thereafter, Eurozone GDP exceeded expectations (Q/Q 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2%) but failed to have any sway on the EUR given that it doesn't capture the impact of Trump's tariffs (aside from some potential front-loading of orders).
• USD/JPY is higher after Japanese Industrial Production and Retail Sales disappointed overnight, prompting concerns over a negative outturn for Q1 GDP. Attention now turns to the BoJ, where the Bank is expected to keep rates steady. USD/JPY is north of Tuesday's high at 142.75 but is yet to approach the 143 mark.
• GBP is slightly softer vs. the USD and EUR with fresh macro drivers on the light side. Tier 2 data via the Lloyds Business Barometer and Nationwide House Index had little sway on GBP. On the trade front, the Guardian reports that US officials have split trade negotiations into three phases; the UK has reportedly been placed in either phase two or three. UK officials are also concerned that any EU-UK deal could make negotiations with the US more challenging.
• AUD is the marginal outperformer across the majors on account of firm inflation metrics overnight (Q/Q 0.9% vs. exp. 0.8%, Y/Y 2.4% vs. exp. 2.3%).
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2014 vs exp. 7.2670 (Prev. 7.2029).

Fixed Income

• A relatively contained start to the session with USTs holding onto Tuesday’s spoils, firmer by a handful of ticks in a 112-03 to 112-09 band. Limited resistance in the near-term, nothing of particular note until 114-03+ from early April and thereafter 114-10. On the data front, the docket begins with ADP as a preview into Friday’s NFP. Thereafter, Q1 GDP, PCE and Employment Costs due. Afterwards, we get the monthly PCE figure.
• Bunds began the morning holding at the top-end of Tuesday’s 131.16-46 parameters, in-fitting with USTs. Then, after the European cash equity open, EGBs began to gradually pick up and despite being knocked briefly by marginally hotter German state CPI metrics than mainland consensus implies, Bunds are at a fresh 131.74 peak. EZ GDP metrics came in above expectations, but ultimately had little impact on the complex given the survey period does not include the implementation of Trump tariffs. German 2041 & 2044 outings were mixed, but ultimately had little impact on the complex.
• Gilts are outperforming, gapped higher by just over 10 ticks and then in-fitting with EGBs after the cash equity open began to extend higher and hit a 93.68 high for the session. Strength occurs despite a lack of fresh drivers in today’s session thus far aside from supply, an auction that came in strong with another b/c well clear of the 3x mark and a slim tail. Results sparked a modest bid in Gilts but one that occurred within existing 93.35-68 confines.
• UK sells GBP 4.5bln 4.375% 2028 Gilt: b/c 3.48x (prev. 3.27x), average yield 3.834% (prev. 4.263%) & tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.4bps).
• Germany sells EUR 1.143bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.60% 2041 and EUR 0.452bln vs exp. EUR 0.5bln 2.50% 2044 Bunds.

Commodities

• Crude is softer for the third session in a row following yesterday's slide which now sees WTI back under USD 60/bbl. Desks pin the downside to ongoing tariff risks alongside expectations of OPEC+ further opening the taps. Furthermore, the bearish Private Inventory report on Tuesday only adds to the downbeat mood. Brent July in a USD 62.17-63.34/bbl range.
• Precious metals are lower across the board amid a firmer dollar intraday and following US President Trump softening the Auto tariffs, which further unwinds some risk premium. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,280.28-3,328.16/oz range at the time of writing, within Monday's USD 3,268-3,353.20/oz range.
• Hefty losses across base metals against the backdrop of a firmer dollar coupled with a cautious risk tone. 3M LME copper is currently in a USD 9,206.17-9,436.60/t range at the time of writing.
• Equinor (EQNR NO) CEO says European gas storage is low, expect a tight market during refilling. Europe will need 200-300 extra LNG cargoes to refill storage this year.
• US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +3.8mln (exp. +0.5mln), Distillate -2.5mln (exp. -1.7mln), Gasoline -3.1mln (exp. -1.2mln), Cushing +0.7mln.
• Chile's Codelco Chairman said April Copper production +22% Y/Y.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• "Israeli government statement: On Netanyahu's instructions, the army carried out a strike against a group that tried to attack the Druze in Sahnaya (Syria)", via Sky News Arabia.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi says US sanctions send a negative message during the nuclear talks; E3 will hold talks in Rome on Friday and with the US on Saturday.
• UK forces participated in a joint operation with US forces against a Houthi military target in Yemen, while the UK said the strike was conducted after dark when the likelihood of any civilians being in the area was reduced and all aircraft returned safely.

Geopoltiics: Ukraine

• Kremlin spokesperson says settlement should be reached with Ukraine, and not the US, via Tass "We are working very intensively with the US on Ukraine".
• US President Trump said he thinks Russian President Putin wants peace but he was not happy when he saw Putin shooting missiles, according to ABC News.
• White House Press Secretary said President Trump is confident the Ukraine minerals deal will be signed.

Geopolitics: Other

• Pakistan's Information Minister said they have credible evidence that India is planning "military aggression" against Pakistan within 24-36 hours.
• North Korea conducted the first test firing of a new warship, according to Yonhap. It was also reported that South Korean intelligence assessed that North Korea's combat capabilities have improved and that North Korea suffered 600 deaths during its dispatch of troops to Russia, while South Korean intelligence is monitoring a possible surprise summit between North Korea and the US.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Apr 25 MBA Mortgage Applications -4.2%, prior -12.7%
• 8:15 am: Apr ADP Employment Change, est. 115k, prior 155k
• 8:30 am: 1Q A GDP Annualized QoQ, est. -0.15%, prior 2.4%
• 8:30 am: 1Q A Personal Consumption, est. 1.16%, prior 4%
• 8:30 am: 1Q A GDP Price Index, est. 3.1%, prior 2.3%
• 8:30 am: 1Q A Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 3.1%, prior 2.6%
• 8:30 am: 1Q Employment Cost Index, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9%
• 9:45 am: Apr MNI Chicago PMI, est. 45.9, prior 47.6
• 10:00 am: Mar Personal Income, est. 0.4%, prior 0.8%
• 10:00 am: Mar Personal Spending, est. 0.6%, prior 0.4%
• 10:00 am: Mar PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0%, prior 0.3%
• 10:00 am: Mar PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.2%, prior 2.5%
• 10:00 am: Mar Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4%
• 10:00 am: Mar Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.8%
• 10:00 am: Mar Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 1%, prior 2%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Some of Europe's largest automakers have withdrawn their financial guidance for the year, citing mounting macroeconomic uncertainty sparked by President Trump's trade war. While Trump signed an order Tuesday easing specific auto tariffs, Mercedes-Benz Group still withdrew its full-year outlook.

"The current volatility with regard to tariff policies, mitigation measures and resulting potential direct and indirect effects in particular on customer behaviour and demand is too high to reliably assess the business development for the remainder of the year," Mercedes warned in an earnings press release for the first quarter. 

Mercedes ships Europe-made vehicles via cargo ships to North America while also producing SUVs, luxury vehicles, EVs, and vans at its Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and Charleston, South Carolina plants.

At its Tuscaloosa plant, Mercedes manufactures SUVs such as the GLE, GLS, GLE Coupe, and the ultra-luxury Mercedes-Maybach GLS, as well as electric models like the EQE and EQS SUVs. In Charleston, the company produces both the Sprinter and e-Sprinter vans. 

On Tuesday evening, President Trump signed an executive order aimed at easing the burden of auto-related tariffs. The order includes provisions to lower duties on steel, aluminum, and foreign-made parts, and prevents multiple tariffs from stacking on a single vehicle. However, the 25% tariff on imported vehicles entering the US remains in place. 

Under the order, additional 25% tariffs on auto parts will begin on May 3, but vehicles that go through final assembly in the US will qualify for partial reimbursements on those levies for two years. 

At a rally in Michigan, Trump told the crowd his administration will "slaughter them [automakers] if they don't" re-shore critical supply chains of parts to the US.

Trump announces a rollback in his tariff policy for automobiles, but then says "we give them a little time before we slaughter them if they don't do this." pic.twitter.com/VyOaVXQi9c

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 29, 2025

In addition to Mercedes, Stellantis NV, Volvo Car, and General Motors have all pulled their full-year forecasts because of tariffs. 

Volkswagen has left its outlook unchanged for the year but warned it has yet to factor in the tariffs, while Aston Martin has announced plans to limit shipments of its luxury sports cars to the US.

Goldman analyst Jeremy Elster commented on the European auto industry...

AUTOS... trading flat on the day despite the guidance suspensions and cuts.  Tariff relief is part of the explanation. Perhaps not directly, but because it hints at willingness to bend to industry pressuree on relief (more on tariff relief details from mark Delaney here). Going through the prints today:

• Mercedes miss & suspend guide. Saying guide would be in tact were it not for tariffs, which makes P911 material downgrades PRE tariff impacts yesterday look even worse in hindsight. The MBG 1Q is a bit better in the details; Cars margin 7.3% vs cons 6.9%, and yet another strong cash quarter (Ind FCF 2,405m vs consensus 1,790m, a 34% beat), albeit this is somewhat overshadowed by the specific cash comment on tariffs; "negative impacts on the cash conversion rates of the automotive segments cannot be ruled out either".  On the call, company saying fy impact of tariffs from here would be around -300bps to Cars margins (i.e. annualised impact would be higher)… implies material downgrades (as much as 400bps vs 7% margin guide starting point, pre mitigation).

• VW first take is worse of the two German prints. Difficult to marry the optimism we heard from the company through q1 with another margins miss at Brand Group Core, but perhaps tailwinds from stronger Europe production become more evident over q2/q3. Headline group ebit is a -7% miss, margins are a 20bps miss, cash flow is more or less in-line.  Guide is moved to low end of the range, but does not include any impact from tariffs.

• STLAM 1Q is revenues only, but also a small miss (-1% vs consensus). Net price -3.4% looks a little worse than feared. Guidance is suspended. Inventories ticked up slightly vs Q4 to support better expected deliveries in Europe in Q2. We've started to field some more, very hesitant, constructive incoming on STLA given tariff relief in US (relative to German OEMs), but for the stock to turn the market will need more confidence on cash and market share stabilisation.

The trade war adds to the problems for European automakers, who face muted demand across Europe and rising competition from Chinese brands, including BYD. 

Samantha Dart, Goldman's co-head of Global Commodities Research, told clients on Tuesday that U.S. natural gas prices appear oversold and reaffirmed a bullish price forecast for the summer period, citing tightening market fundamentals. 

"Upside to Sum25 Henry Hub from here. On net, we continue to see U.S. gas prices as oversold. With net long positions by managed money now more normalized and fundamentals tightening into peak summer as discussed above, we maintain our Bal Sum25 Henry Hub forecast of $3.90/mmBtu," Dart said. 

Dart noted that NatGas production may remain elevated into the early summer months, longer than she previously anticipated, though she expects a decline to begin in June. She explained that the recent surge in output is primarily due to previously drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) and delayed turn-in-line wells (DTILs) now coming online, describing this as a temporary phenomenon: 

The elevated U.S. natural gas production we flagged recently might last longer into this summer than we expect, but production will ultimately move lower. To be sure, we still expect lower Appalachia production sequentially, as a weather-driven decline in Northeast heating demand pressures local wellhead prices lower1 . However, production levels might ultimately remain above our expectations into early summer. To be clear, EQT commented last week during its earnings call that this surge in production has been largely due to wells that had been previously inventoried - as drilled but uncompleted (DUCs) or delayed turn-in-lines (DTILs) - but are now producing, which we think is consistent with a strong price incentive from 1Q25 Henry Hub having averaged in the high $3s/mmBtu, with local Appalachia prices not far behind. This suggests a one-off boost to local production, with heavy declines rates for the new wells likely setting in from June.

In the Northeast, particularly in Appalachia, Dart said production will likely slide as weak local prices, driven mainly through reduced heating demand, put pressure on wellhead economics. She pointed out that U.S. power burns have recovered faster than modeled, with increased coal-to-gas switching:

C2G starting to respond. At the same time, power burns have started to recover vs our modeled expectations, suggesting that utilities are likely increasing C2G switching following the drop in gas prices. The gas share of U.S. thermal generation has started to rise and is now at the highest level year to date at 70%.

She pointed out that NatGas-fired generation now accounts for 70% of U.S. thermal generation, the highest level so far this year. 

Authored by Jennifer Sweenie via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

From the moment Jess’s infant son transitioned from breastfeeding to baby formula, feeding became a source of distress—for both mom and baby. Every bottle of any U.S.-made brand seemed to trigger a bout of vomiting, his tiny body rejecting each feeding. Jess took to doing her research, and against her doctor’s guidance, made the switch to a European-made formula. The vomiting stopped with the swap, granting a sliver of respite for both baby and mom.

New Africa/Shutterstock

“My pediatrician told me that I was ‘endangering’ him by using a European formula that wasn’t FDA approved,” Jess Davidoff told The Epoch Times.

However, as Jess discovered, her pediatrician’s warning didn’t quite align with reality. The debate over what makes a “good” infant formula is intensifying as American parents increasingly turn to European brands. Interest in overseas products isn’t just about preference—it also highlights significant disparities in regulatory standards, differences in essential fats, controversial carbohydrates, and how transparently formulas are labeled. Understanding these differences empowers parents to make informed choices for their children and supports the health and development of American infants.

‘Good’ Formula

Choosing the best formula requires understanding labels and ingredients, regardless of its country of origin. Several critical factors come into play:

Essential Nutrients

Infant formula serves as the primary source of nutrition for many babies during their first year, making its composition essential for healthy development. Key nutrients found in breast milk to look for in formula include:

DHA and ARA: These long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids are essential for brain and eye development. European regulations have historically mandated minimum levels of DHA in infant formula, whereas the amounts in U.S. varieties may vary and, on average, are much lower than what Europe requires.

Prebiotics and Probiotics: Gut health is vital for babies’ digestion, immunity, and even brain development. Regulations regarding the inclusion of prebiotics and probiotics, and the specific strains and amounts, can vary between the United States and Europe. European standards often impose stricter guidelines.

Vitamins and Minerals: Both the FDA and European authorities set minimum, and sometimes maximum, levels for micronutrients in infant formula to ensure babies receive adequate nutrition. However, the specific requirements for certain vitamins and minerals can differ. A 2023 study published in Nutrients found that the average iron level in U.S. formulas is higher than what Europe allows. Almost 96 percent of the formulas tested in the United States exceeded the European iron limit.

Quality

Ingredient quality and how they are processed can impact the overall nutritional value and potential health effects of infant formula.

Organic formulas, made with milk from cows raised without hormones or routine antibiotics and fed organic feed, are more prevalent and strictly regulated in Europe. European organic formulas are also more likely to be made from grass-fed cows and contain probiotics.

The organic market in the United States is growing, but conventional formulas produced from cows raised according to standard agricultural practices still dominate.

Processing methods can affect the bioavailability of nutrients, such as milk proteins and calcium. Some newer processing methods aim to preserve more heat-sensitive nutrients. While both U.S. and European manufacturers follow safety standards, the specific techniques they use might vary.

Additives, such as emulsifiers, stabilizers, and preservatives, are common in formula, but the types and amounts allowed are more restricted in Europe. Some ingredients found in U.S. formulas might be restricted or banned in Europe due to potential health concerns, including exposure to antibiotics and pesticides.

Macronutrient Content

When it comes to macronutrients, lactose is the primary carbohydrate used in both regions to mimic breast milk. It is generally well digested by infants and supports the growth of beneficial gut bacteria. However, European standard formulas almost exclusively use lactose, while U.S. formulas use corn syrup solids, which may affect blood sugar, weight gain, and gut health. Due to these concerns, European regulatory bodies tend to be more cautious than the United States about allowing corn syrup solids in standard infant formulas.

As for Jess’s son, who regurgitated his formula, it turned out he had a severe corn allergy and was reacting to the corn syrup solids in the U.S. formula.

According to Dr. Michelle Perro, an integrative pediatrician with more than four decades of experience, the corn syrup solids are highly processed, but there may still be residual corn protein in the formula. She told The Epoch Times that producing corn syrup involves extensive processing, which, in her view, may contribute to health issues in some children.

“We are seeing an explosion of food sensitivities, intolerances, and allergies—it is off the charts,” said Perro.

Jess’s son’s corn allergy manifested with multiple concerning symptoms, including thinning hair and nails, vomiting, eczema, and hernias—one of which required surgery. Thirty-two doctors dismissed her concerns about a food-related cause, but her mother’s intuition prevailed. She meticulously tracked his food until the culprit revealed itself—all stemming from the introduction of U.S.-based formula containing corn.

“The sugar used has to change. We [the United States] cannot use the synthetic corn syrup derived from GMO corn,” Perro said.

Both European and U.S. formulas typically use a blend of vegetable oils to mimic the fatty acid profile of breast milk. Common oils include palm oil, soy oil, coconut oil, and sunflower oil. European formulas often highlight the inclusion of medium-chain triglycerides, which are easily digestible and provide a quick source of energy. There may also be a greater emphasis on the quality and processing of these oils compared with U.S. standards.

Proteins in formula—usually cow’s milk—aim to match breast milk’s whey-to-casein ratio, often more closely in European formulas than U.S. varieties. Both markets offer formulas with partially or extensively broken down hydrolyzed proteins. Additionally, both the United States and Europe offer formulas made with goat’s milk or soy protein for infants with specific dietary needs. Regulations regarding these alternative protein sources and the extent of processing may differ by region.

Ultimately, transparent labeling is essential for parents making informed choices about infant formula ingredients and nutrient content. European standards often provide more detailed information about ingredient sources and the specific types and amounts of certain components, such as prebiotics and probiotics.

Heavy Metals Are a Concern

Heavy metals can be present in baby formula in the United States and Europe. The European Union generally has stricter limits on heavy metals and contaminants in baby formula than the United States, and continuously updates its regulations to reduce allowable levels. The stricter regulations on heavy metals are a major reason some parents prefer European formulas.

The FDA does not currently require manufacturers to routinely test infant formula for heavy metals. Instead, it has a “Closer to Zero“ initiative that aims to gradually reduce the amount of harmful metals babies and children are exposed to in food. The initiative focuses on conducting research, setting guidelines for the food industry, and monitoring progress over time

Perro referenced the FDA’s Total Diet Study, a program that’s been running since the 1960s and initially focused on measuring radioactivity in food. The study, conducted periodically, monitors the safety and nutritional quality of the U.S. food supply. In its most recent publication, released in 2022, the Total Diet Study analyzed approximately 910 foods to assess contaminant levels. Of the 910 foods, four were infant formulas—and two of those contained toxic metals, including uranium. Despite these findings, Perro said, no public recalls or follow-up investigations were announced, raising concerns about regulatory oversight.

“To think that the FDA is protecting us is a stretch,” she noted, voicing frustration over what she sees as inadequate action regarding contamination in infant formula

Perro suggested that potential sources of toxic metals could include cow feed, processing methods, and environmental factors such as geoengineering—large-scale climate interventions like solar radiation management. While further research is needed to pinpoint the source in the U.S. formula manufacturing system, the presence of these metals is alarming due to the potential health effects.

Heavy metals found in infant formula and their effects include:

Lead: Per the FDA, there is no known safe level of exposure to lead. It poses the greatest risk during brain development and can cause neurological impairments, including learning and behavioral difficulties, and lower IQ.

Mercury: Mercury exposure during active brain development may cause reduced intelligence, memory and cognitive problems, and motor skill difficulties. Emerging evidence also suggests attention may be affected, according to the FDA.

Arsenic: The FDA links arsenic exposure with adverse neurological effects such as learning disabilities, behavioral difficulties, and reduced IQ. Fetuses, infants, and children are especially vulnerable because of their smaller bodies and rapid development.

Cadmium: Because the body eliminates cadmium slowly, long-term exposure can weaken bones and may contribute to kidney and reproductive problems, heart disease, and diabetes, according to the FDA.

A 2024 meta-analysis published in Science of the Total Environment concluded that cadmium exposure is strongly associated with an increased risk of developing chronic kidney disease. Researchers reviewed 31 studies and found that even small amounts of cadmium exposure pose a long-term concern due to its persistence in the body.

Perrro said one of the most troubling effects of heavy metal exposure in infants is its effect on gut health and the subsequent lifelong repercussions.

She explained that toxic metals can disrupt the microbiome, potentially preventing babies from developing a healthy innate immune response. According to Perro, this kind of gut disruption could set the stage for conditions such as eczema, gut-induced asthma, autoimmune disorders, and food allergies, possibly setting the stage for additional health challenges later in life.

She also emphasized the neurological effects of toxic metals, which she believes may play a role in the development of neurodevelopmental conditions such as autism spectrum disorder, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, sensory processing disorders, sleep disturbances, and other behavioral challenges. Additionally, Perro expressed concern about possible metabolic disruptions and the long-term risk of kidney disease, particularly from cadmium exposure.

“Whatever happens to baby is setting up that baby for their immunologic well-being for the rest of their lives,” she said.

Read the rest here...

Amazon's Kuiper officially entered the space communications race on Monday evening, with its first 27 satellites launched into orbit aboard a United Launch Alliance (ULA) Atlas V rocket from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida.

These satellites will deliver high-speed, low-latency broadband internet to customers worldwide and form the foundation of a much larger planned constellation of 3,200 satellites in low Earth orbit, expected to be rolled out in the coming years.

Nominal start to our KA-01 mission. We’ve already established contact with all 27 Kuiper satellites in orbit, and initial deployment and activation sequences are proceeding as planned. Thanks to @ULAlaunch for a successful launch – the first of many missions together. pic.twitter.com/XyG0UCgjuX

— Project Kuiper (@ProjectKuiper) April 29, 2025

Monday's milestone marks a long-awaited step for Jeff Bezos' Kuiper, which now enters the race six years behind Elon Musk's Starlink, operated by SpaceX.

Notably, it wasn't Blue Origin—Bezos' rocket company—that launched the 27 satellites. Instead, it was ULA doing the heavy lifting, while Blue Origin's New Shepard rocket has so far been better known for celebrity suborbital joyrides than serious work. 

US Gov't: Katy Perry "Doesn't Meet FAA Astronaut Criteria" https://t.co/vDzQkCOJEI

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 19, 2025

Meanwhile, SpaceX has already launched over 8,000 Starlink satellites into orbit and offers service in more than 125 countries. With more than 5 million users worldwide, Starlink remains the dominant player in the global space-based communications market.

SpaceX's space dominance has turned Goldman analysts into believers. Earlier this year, analysts provided clients with a list of Starlink's suppliers to capitalize on, as tens of thousands of these satellites will be catapulted into low Earth orbit by the decade's end. 

Goldman Turns Bullish On Starlink Satellite Parts Supplier As Space Race Accelerates https://t.co/GyooFrcg0x

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 18, 2025

Just last night...

Falcon 9 launches back-to-back @Starlink missions from California and Florida and completes our 50th mission of 2025! pic.twitter.com/t2tYvM6ctD

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) April 29, 2025

Democrats have waged war against the guy who is catching skyscraper-sized rocket boosters. 

Super Heavy catch on Starship's eighth flight test pic.twitter.com/oC80r7CZ4L

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) March 8, 2025

Talk about efficiency: 

Summary:
Over $250B spent with no new domestic human launch system until SpaceX delivered one.
Meanwhile, SpaceX built Falcon 1, Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Dragon, and Starship — all for less than 3% of NASA’s total spend. pic.twitter.com/rraK1yPccX

— Sam (@futurenomics) April 22, 2025

Bezos uses Starlink terminals on his very own yacht. 

The hope is that competition will innovate the space communications race, yet Starlink doesn't really have strong competitors - not Bezos, not China, not Russia. Just wait until SpaceX's mega-rocket begins launching Starlink satellites.

With the full liberation of Kursk having been declared by President Putin days ago, both Moscow and its recent defense treaty partner North Korea are much more openly touting the fact that North Korean troops are operating alongside Russian forces against the Ukrainian army.

For the first time, Russia’s Defense Ministry has released official footage showing North Korean soldiers undergoing combat training in Russia. The video was reportedly captured soon after reports began circulating that over 10,000 DPRK troops had been deployed to Russia, where they later fought in Kursk region in particular.

Via TASS

In the footage, Russian instructors teach the North Korean soldiers in shooting techniques and formations with Kalashnikov assault rifles. Anti-drone measures are also featured, as well as hand grenade training. Several live-fire exercises are featured, including firing RPGs and some sniper training.

Russia did not comment on precisely where the training took place, but it confirms that the terms of the Russian-North Korean mutual defense treaty - inked last summer between Presidents Putin and Kim Jong-Un, had been enacted fairly quickly once Ukraine forces crossed the border and entered Kursk.

The latest international reports have said 14,000 or more North Korean soldiers were sent to Russia amid the Kursk operation. The bulk of these are said to be from special forces units. Putin thanked them and Kim Jong-Un this week, in a first such public acknowledgement.

Ukraine is meanwhile urging Washington to take more serious action in light of this confirmation, and is also calling on South Korea, per regional media:

"If the Kremlin sends North Korean troops to the territory of Ukraine it would mean that North Korea is in a state of all out war with Ukraine," Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the parliament's foreign affairs committee, told the Kyiv Independent.

The lawmaker from the ruling Servant of the People explained that such a deployment would cause "serious legal, political, and military consequences for Russia and North Korea," prompting a stronger reaction from countries such as South Korea and the U.S.

"(Russian President Vladimir) Putin understands that if he does it (U.S. President Donald) Trump will have to react rather strongly," Merezhko said.

Watch: video issued by Russian military showing training of DPRK troops at a prior date:

“We won’t invade Ukraine.”
“No North Koreans are fighting for Russia.”
“We want peace talks with Ukraine.”

How many times does the West need to hear Russia lie before it finally learns? pic.twitter.com/a8spASlnLl

— Shaun Pinner (@olddog100ua) April 28, 2025

Ukraine had reportedly breached the Russian border in Belgorod too, so it's possible North Korean troops might be deployed that region as well. Whether or not they are actually inside Eastern Ukraine is an open question.

As for North Korea's Kim, KCNA quoted him Monday as saying, "They who fought for justice are all heroes and representatives of the honor of the motherland." North Korea "regards it as an honor to have an alliance with such a powerful state as the Russian Federation," he added. Ukraine has claimed to have captured a handful of both North Korean and even Chinese troops over the past month.

Via Middle East Eye

"Mossad agents" and "warmongers" are pushing the US into a conflict with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Those lines aren’t coming from state-run news agencies in Tehran, but some of US President Donald Trump’s closest media allies and supporters. 

Last week, conservative talk show host Tucker Carlson featured a senior Department of Defense official who he claimed was ousted because he was seen as an obstacle to the US bombing Iran.

Dan Caldwell, a top advisor to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, was removed from the Pentagon earlier this month on charges that he allegedly leaked classified information about Hegseth’s use of a Signal chat, according to several media outlets.

Getty Images via AFP

Not so by Carlson’s telling, who has unparalleled access to Trump. "You did make maybe one career mistake by giving on-the-record interviews describing your foreign policy views…that are out of the mainstream among warmongers in Washington," Carlson said to Caldwell, adding, "Then I read all of a sudden that you are a traitor."

On Sunday, another conservative podcaster, Clayton Morris, a former Fox News anchor, said pro-Israel voices were "working overtime" to destroy the "anti-war team" that Trump has assembled at the Pentagon.

"We’ve learned here at Redacted that former Israeli Mossad agents are working overtime on social media and behind the scenes trying to discredit Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth," Morris said, referring to his show. He didn't name the so-called former agents. 

Trump’s administration is divided between more traditional Republicans like US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and national security advisor Mike Waltz, and "America First" isolationists like White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.

Some of Trump’s most vocal defenders in the media, who exercise unprecedented influence in communicating his worldview, are media figures like Carlson and former advisor Steve Bannon.

The firing of Caldwell and two other senior Pentagon officials appears to have energized America First anti-interventionists. Their slamming of the pro-Israel voices and former Mossad agents is unprecedented within the Republican Party. It reflects just how far Trump has taken the party from its traditionally hawkish worldview. 

Pro-Trump media personalities have singled out Merav Ceren, who was nominated to head Iran and Israel at the White House National Security Council, for criticism. 

Ceren was born in Haifa, Israel, and worked in the Israeli Ministry of Defense. On his show, Morris, who co-hosted a Fox morning news show with Hegseth, said that, "Neo-con Mike Waltz has now hired basically a dual citizen and former IDF official to work under him."

The coverage reflects a growing trend in the US to view Israel with skepticism, which has intensified since the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attacks on southern Israel, which sparked the Israeli invasion of Gaza and a simmering Middle East war. 

According to a Pew Poll published in April, 53 percent of Americans now express an unfavorable opinion of Israel, up from 42 percent in March 2022. The shift in negative sentiment has been notable among young Republicans under 50, who are more likely to tune into podcasts like Morris’s Redacted and Carlson’s show.

Dan Caldwell, a top advisor to Defense Chief Pete Hegseth, was escorted out of the Pentagon after being named in a Department of Defense leaks investigation.

Caldwell didn’t toe the usual line on foreign policy. He openly challenged the Washington consensus on Israel, saying the… pic.twitter.com/O2ZoVSNmXd

— Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) April 15, 2025

The criticism comes as Trump tries to square his muscular foreign policy instincts with his pledge to refrain from starting new Middle East wars. On Iran, Trump's closest envoys have been left contradicting themselves. 

Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy who has emerged as his go-to global troubleshooter, suggested earlier this month that Washington would allow Iran to enrich uranium at low levels. After backlash from pro-Israel voices, he flipped, saying that Tehran “must stop and eliminate” its nuclear enrichment program fully.

This week, Secretary Rubio said the US could re-enter a deal that sees Iran keep a civilian nuclear programme - so long as it halts enrichment, and instead ships it in from abroad. 

American and Iranian technical teams met in Oman on Saturday for their third round of talks. Trump told reporters on Monday that the talks are going "very well" and that "a deal is going to be made there". "We’ll have something without having to start dropping bombs all over the place," he said.

Authored by Bethany Blankley via The Center Square,

President Donald Trump issued an executive order on Monday to enhance national security and enforce federal immigration and criminal law in so-called sanctuary jurisdictions and take a range of actions against those obstructing enforcement, including eliminating their federal funding.

Trump’s “Protecting American Communities from Criminal Aliens” executive order directs the departments of Justice and Homeland Security to publish a list of state and local jurisdictions that obstruct federal immigration enforcement and take action against them.

“Federal supremacy with respect to immigration, national security, and foreign policy is axiomatic,” the order states, citing Article II and Article IV, Section 4, of the U.S. Constitution, vesting the federal government with the power to protect national security and “protect each of [the States] against Invasion.”

The invasion argument was first made by 55 Texas counties that declared an invasion citing Article IV, Section 4 of the U.S. Constitution, The Center Square exclusively reported.

“The prior administration allowed unchecked millions of aliens to illegally enter the United States,” the order states, creating a public safety and national security crisis, exacerbated by transnational criminal organizations, terrorists and others intent on harming Americans.

Trump’s latest executive order, as many of his previous ones, is likely to be challenged in court.

Citing an invasion at the southern border, which Trump officially declared on his first day in office, his administration is now responding to some state and local officials who “violate, obstruct, and defy” federal immigration enforcement, the order states.

Local jurisdictions who obstruct federal deportation efforts are engaging in “a lawless insurrection against the supremacy of Federal law and the Federal Government’s obligation to defend the territorial sovereignty of the United States,” it states.

In addition to creating “intolerable national security risks,” the order states sanctuary jurisdictions’ “nullification efforts often violate Federal criminal laws, including those prohibiting obstruction of justice, … unlawfully harboring or hiring illegal aliens …, conspiracy against the United States …, and conspiracy to impede Federal law enforcement.”

The order also notes that “assisting aliens in violating Federal immigration law could also violate the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act,” an argument made by America First Legal, The Center Square reported. In January, AFL launched a resource to help Americans fight sanctuary policies and sent letters to more than 250 elected officials demanding that they comply with federal law or expect to be sued.

“Concealing, harboring, or shielding aliens could also trigger liability under the federal Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO) statute,” AFL said.

“Civil RICO remedies are available to ‘[a]ny person injured in his business or property by reason of a violation’ and shall recover threefold the damages he sustains and the cost of the suit, including a reasonable attorney’s fee.’”

Trump’s order also states that those who assist illegal foreign nationals might be violating federal laws that prohibit discrimination against Americans and might be violating Americans’ civil rights.

In order for the federal government “to restore the enforcement of United States law,” Trump directed the attorney general and Secretary of Homeland Security to publish a list of states and local jurisdictions that obstruct the federal immigration enforcement. Each jurisdiction is to be notified of its alleged violation of federal immigration and criminal law.

Those that remain in defiance will lose all federal funding, the order says. The AG and DHS secretary are directed to work with the Director of the Office of Management and Budget to identify, suspend and terminate all federal funds allocated to sanctuary jurisdictions, including grants and contracts. They are also directed to “pursue all necessary legal remedies and enforcement measures to end these violations and bring such jurisdictions into compliance” with U.S. laws.

The order also prevents all federal benefits from being spent on illegal foreign nationals living in sanctuary jurisdictions, including through private entities. It requires federal agencies to create a mechanism “to ensure appropriate eligibility verification is conducted for individuals receiving federal public benefits” under Title 8 of federal immigration law.

It also creates provisions for the AG, DHS secretary and agency heads to “identify and take appropriate action to stop the enforcement of state and local laws, regulations, policies, and practices favoring aliens over any groups of American citizens that are unlawful, preempted by federal law, or otherwise unenforceable.”

This includes state laws that provide in-state higher education tuition “to aliens but not to out-of-State American citizens that may violate” federal law or “that favor aliens in criminal charges or sentencing.”

The order was issued after the Trump administration already warned sanctuary jurisdictions like Massachusetts, whose officials remained steadfast in their policies to protect illegal foreign nationals. They continued to do so after federal authorities arrested alleged terrorists tied to the murder of U.S. troops and hundreds of criminal illegal foreign nationals were charged or convicted of committing violent crimes against Massachusetts residents, The Center Square reported.

Pakistan's military says it shot down an Indian spy drone in the Kashmir region, soon after the country's defense chief warned that intelligence shows an Indian army incursion is 'imminent'.

The unmanned drone reportedly breached the Line of Control (LOC) in Kashmir, Pakistani state-run media said, and it was subsequently shot down amid the air space incursion. Pakistani defense officials described to The Associated Press that the drone flew hundreds of feet into Pakistani-administered Kashmir.

Illustrative: the type of Indian drone believed downed in Kashmir.

Defense Minister Khawaja Asif the day prior confirmed the nation's military is currently on high alert and he had "reinforced our forces" - after multiple days of sporadic exchanges of gunfire along unspecified border posts.

"In that situation, some strategic decisions have to be taken, so those decisions have been taken," Asif told Reuters, also ominously describing that Islamabad would only consider using its nuclear arsenal in response to "a direct threat to our existence." 

There's as yet been no noticeable incursion, and it remains unclear what evidence for this forecast Pakistan's military and intelligence services might have.

Last Tuesday's deadly militant attack on tourists in Kashmir, which saw 26 Indian tourists get executed after the gunmen sought to identify Hindus among the group, resulted in the Indian government promptly accusing Pakistan of harboring the Islamist terrorists which committed the atrocity, which Islamabad angrily rejected.

The nuclear-armed neighbors have already fought two historic wars over the Kashmir region, and fears are rising that another one may soon be on the horizon - also after both sides have sent military reinforcements to the respective regions they administer. Amid a massive manhunt, India identified two detained suspected militants as Pakistani.

The New York Times described Saturday that "Pakistani solders fired at an Indian position first and India responded in kind, according to local news reports, which said that "the exchange was brief and that there were no casualties." Precise locations of these live fire incidents have not been disclosed.

Missile and nuclear saber-rattling has meanwhile ensued:

India’s navy test-fired missiles on Sunday, showcasing its ability to carry out “long-range, precision offensive” strikes, as tensions with Pakistan rise after last week’s terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 civilians.

“Indian Navy ships undertook successful multiple anti-ship firings to re-validate and demonstrate readiness of platforms, systems, and crew for long-range precision offensive strike,” the navy posted on X, as the prime minister, Narendra Modi, promised a “harsh response” to the attack at a tourist site, the deadliest against civilians in Kashmir in 25 years.

As for the other side, a Pakistani minister, Hanif Abbasi (though he's not in defense or security) days ago warned that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal of more than 130 missiles was "not kept as models" and was aimed “only for India … these ballistic missiles, all of them are targeted at you" - The Guardian noted.

The United Nations has urged restraint, and Pakistan has called for an independent investigation into the Kashmir terror attack, which it says it had nothing to do with. It has also called on Russia and China to mediate and assist with a potential investigation.

If gunfire continues to be exchanged between the two militaries, also amid reports that Pakistani visa holders are being promptly booted from the country amid the diplomatic crisis - clashes could accelerate toward open war. 

India's Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir Omar Abdullah has meanwhile said there must be a "decisive fight against terrorism and its origin." Indian officials have continued to heap accusations that ultimately Islamabad either supports these groups or at least turns a blind eye.

Pakistan ACCUSES India of running terror network

Armed Forces spox claims NO EVIDENCE to suggest Pakistan's role in Pahalgam attack pic.twitter.com/xwdPOMpWUo

— RT (@RT_com) April 29, 2025

More observations via Rabobank...

* * *

Pakistan just warned of imminent India military action against it in response to a recent terror attack in Kashmir, to which China stated: “As Pakistan's ironclad friend and all-weather strategic cooperative partner, China fully understands Pakistan's legitimate security concerns and supports Pakistan in safeguarding its sovereignty and security interests,” with rumours it and Turkey are sending Pakistan weapons. 

India will surely be looking for mirroring statements and actions from those who want more trade with it. The UK and the EU aren’t going to provide them; BRICS is a joke given what C just said about I, via P; and that only leaves the US.

Following yesterday's slump in a survey of Texas Manufacturing firms, the Dallas Fed released their survey of Texas Services sector firms today, and it was just a big a shitshow.

Perceptions of broader business conditions deteriorated further in April. The general business activity index dropped eight points to -19.4. In addition, outlooks worsened as the company outlook index retreated to a 34-month low of -15.5. The outlook uncertainty index jumped 13 points to 40.5 - its highest level since mid-2022. 

Respondents’ expectations regarding future business activity continued to weaken in April.

Under the hood, we saw further stagflationary signals with revenue forecast plunging as prices soar...

Tariffs were top of mind for many, just as with the Texas Manufacturing survey, as respondents broadly speaking reflected: "Nothing is getting better."

• [Our concerns are] tariffs, tariffs, tariffs.

• We have high levels of anxiety as a result of the fast-moving changes in government restructuring and tariff policies. Although we are hoping for the best end results, the overall business environment is very volatile.

• Our major concern is the effect of tariffs.

• [We are concerned about] tariff uncertainty and price increases, mostly related to products from China; plus, we are experiencing longer lead times for orders.

• Potential supply chain impacts of proposed tariffs are being evaluated industrywide.

• All of the uncertainty is slowing private business.

• Tariffs are bringing a high level of uncertainty to our business. It is hard to tell what will happen in one week, let alone six months

• The on-again, off-again psychodrama in Washington with respect to tariffs is upsetting to almost the entirety of the business community. If the unprecedented tariffs continue, the commercial real estate and construction industries will slow to a halt soon.

• The current tariffs in effect will increase our cost of goods due to increased produce prices and certain imported proteins.

• The almost daily shifts on tariffs create havoc.

• People are acting almost in a panic about the economy.

• Tariffs [are a concern].

• We are highly concerned about a downturn in activity from a recession caused by the tariffs.

• [We are] devastated. We are a trucking company specializing in transporting international shipping containers, and there is no other word that captures what we are facing.

• We are becoming increasingly pessimistic.

• We are experiencing an unexpected decline in business activity. I see customers becoming more price sensitive and cutting back on general expenditures.

And finally, 'chaos', 'erratic', and 'turmoil' at The White House summed up many people's perspectives:

• President Donald Trump has a very chaotic style of dealing with the economy.

• Erratic leadership style in Washington has led to high levels of uncertainty impacting decision making and spending.

• The insane chaos that is running the White House makes it impossible to plan anything.

• Daily instability in D.C. continues to create chaos.

• The randomness of our current president is causing paralysis.

• Uncertainty in the markets is a killer. Erratic behavior of leadership is even worse.

• We are devoting so much time to mitigating the chaos this administration is creating that we have little time left to run our business.

Not a pretty picture... and remember, this is Texans.

However, we did find one silver lining comment:

• I'm not too worried about the new tariffs. I think other countries will soon be negotiating with President Trump, and six months from now the national discussion will have moved on.

Is there hope?

"Consumers are on the fence. This will turn eventually."

Update (1155ET): According to CNN (so who knows) - a senior Trump admin official told President Trump about the story, after which Trump called Amazon founder Jeff Bezos following the Punchbowl report that Amazon was considering displaying the cost of US tariffs next to prices on its website. Shortly after the call, an Amazon spokesman released a statement 'clarifying' that the move wasn't considered for the main Amazon site - rather, just 'Amazon Haul.'

"This was never approved and not going to happen," said the spokesperson.

Earlier...

Well that didn't take long...

Amazon has just issued a statement denying PunchBowl's reporting and explaining that showing tariffs costs on the main Amazon site was "never a consideration":

“The team that runs our ultra low cost Amazon Haul store has considered listing import charges on certain products. 

This was never a consideration for the main Amazon site and nothing has been implemented on any Amazon properties.”

Amazon's share price is rebounding on the statement...

Of course, by NOT exposing these numbers (which the leftists and legacy media were cheering so loudly), Jeff Bezos has just shifted the crosshairs once again:

Bezos is once again the second most hated billionaire by the left

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 29, 2025

So did PunchBowl just make this up?

Punchbowl story on Amazon, sponsored by Amazon, isn't completely true, per Amazon. pic.twitter.com/5JD7nCk5Pa

— Alex Kantrowitz (@Kantrowitz) April 29, 2025

*  *  *

Shares of Amazon tumbled to premarket lows Tuesday after White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt called the company's recent decision to display the effect of tariffs on products a "hostile and political act," adding "why didn't Amazon do this when the Biden administration hiked inflation to the highest level in 40 years?"

"It's not a surprise," Leavitt continued, adding "Amazon has partnered with a Chinese propaganda arm. So this is another reason Americans should buy American."

Watch:

White House calls Amazon's decision to cite Trump tariffs cost on products a "hostile and political act."

"Why didn't Amazon do this when the Biden administration hiked inflation to the highest level in 40 years?" pic.twitter.com/fdof5noJp4

— Josh Caplan (@joshdcaplan) April 29, 2025

AMZN shares are trading over 2% lower in the pre-market following the remarks.

The e-commerce giant will soon display how much of an item's cost is derived from tariffs - 'right next to the product's total listed price,' Punchbowl News reported earlier Tuesday.

Of note, companies like Amazon and Shein Group Ltd. are bracing for a 120% tariff on many of their products due to the US government's decision to end the "de minimis" exemption which allowed goods valued at under $800 to pass into the US without tariffs or customs duties.

Why does Amazon refuse to disclose where its crap products from companies with fake names are manufactured. Amazon won’t disclose country of origin, but it knows the exact country-specific tariff? https://t.co/KU7gr6ILMe

— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) April 29, 2025

According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who attended the press briefing, Amazon's move to highlight tariffs is unfair given that the costs of policies implemented by other administrations (including regulations) aren't being broken out by Amazon.

"The big tax on consumers that goes unnoticed is deregulation or regulation, and we are deregulating and bringing that down," Bessent said. "So you know, from a household income point of view, we would expect real purchasing increases that we’ve seen over the first 100 days, and we would expect that to accelerate."

Needless to say, this "hostile and political" move by Amazon is catching heat...

Executive order mandating that on-line sales identify country of origin for each product.

— Carnot's Law (@Len54Len) April 29, 2025

Absolutely right. Amazon’s decision is clearly political. They didn't flag inflation impacts under Biden, but now single out tariffs under Trump.

— VJT (@KelvinCold1234) April 29, 2025