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Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Stumblebum's Legacy

"Every time I watch The View, I become even more misogynistic."

- Laura Loomer

Bad as it was, “Joe Biden,” the figment president was merely one manifestation of a nation made mad by power-seeking demons, real-live, ill-intentioned human beings driving a runaway political machine, the party of hoaxes, hustles, and hatred. 

The country is just now struggling to exit a convulsion of mass mental illness. The demons are still there, though, and still hard at work trying to drag you all back into mass formation.

A central mystery is how the news media made itself the enemy of the people, and this conundrum is not at all explained by Jake Tapper and Alex Marshall in their book Original Sin. 

It’s actually just another hustle with overtones of hoax, like everything else in the evil cavalcade of narratives spun out in the news media’s war on reality. Tapper and Marshall want you to believe that a faceless collective they call “the White House” managed to conceal “Joe Biden’s” well-advanced disintegration from the voting public, and that was. . . that. The media wuz fooled! Goll-lee!

Of course, that fails to explain a whole lot — such as: how come anybody watching daily video clips of “Joe Biden” in action, could not fail to see the broken old puppet he is. Alex Marshall, receiving his “award for excellence” from the White House Correspondents’ Association weeks ago said, “We just missed it.” 

Yeah, sure...

They also apparently missed the programmatic devastation to American society that was carried out in the old stumblebum’s name.

I will give you the key to that conundrum, and then you will understand why all this happened, and why the many lingering demons are still at it in their self-styled “resistance” to America-in-recovery. Mr. Marshall lied, you understand. The media connived with the demons. They were in on the gag the whole time.

If there is any “original sin” in the story, it revolves around Hillary Clinton. This monster emerged as the junior partner to her husband, political wonder-boy Bill Clinton. From the get-go, the narrative painted her as a wife sore-beset by her charismatic husband’s infidelities. (Forget that her only child, Chelsea, is a dead-ringer for her former law partner, Webb Hubbell.) However their connubial affairs worked, Hill and Bill had a deal: when he was done, she would eventually rise to become the first woman president, and they would go down in history as two era-defining, Boomer gen, political wonder-geniuses.

It was a flawed plan. 

For one thing, Hillary utterly lacked Bill’s political charisma, which was his ability to avidly engage with other people and their issues. Hillary didn’t care much for other people, and only pretended to be interested in their issues. Also, people could easily read that in her demeanor. Nobody was fooled. If anything, she had negative charm, anti-charisma. Her own interests were strictly limited to obtaining power and riches. With enough power, Hillary noticed, you didn’t need charm or charisma. You could simply order people around. But the power couple left the White House broke in 2001, and were caught trying to spirit away some of the presidential dinner-ware.

The next phase of Hillary’s career was fortune-building. The Clinton Foundation was set up in 1997, ostensibly to fund Bill’s presidential library. It would become a fantastic grift magnet in the years to come, taking them from broke-ass-broke to demi-billionaires. Her launching pad was a seat in the US Senate. (She ran and won in New York when she was still First Lady in the 2000 election.)

2008 was supposed to be Hillary’s apotheosis from senator to president. The setup was perfect. The country was tired of Double-ya Bush. The time was exactly right for a woman president. Hillary was the obvious choice by a country mile. Except that she was edged out in the primaries by the Democratic Party’s alternative play for something even more amazing, in a contest of historic firsts, than a woman president — a black president, proving to the world how morally upright the USA had become, America liked how it felt. We were good people, after all!

Barack Obama liked playing his role, and he seemed to have more charisma than Hillary (though he didn’t care much for other people either, really). His sketchy background included a lot of people tinged with Marxism, such as his mentor in Chicago, Bill Ayers, an infamous Sixties radical, rumored to have ghost-written Obama’s books. And he was ensorcelled by big bankers like Robert Rubin of CitiGroup, and by Globalist bigshots orbiting Davos and the WEF.

Yet, Senator Hillary Clinton was still aggregating power as leader of Democratic women voters, a massive base. It was clear that she would remain in the game, aiming for her eventual “turn” in the White House. So, Mr. Obama made a deal with her: he would elevate her to Secretary of State, further fortifying her credentials, and then stand behind her in a 2016 run.

Hillary used her years at State to also fortify the Clinton Foundation’s coffers in various pay-to-play schemes — such as the Skolkovo tech deal with Russia and the Uranium One deal that netted the Clinton Foundation combined pledges of over $275-million, according to Clinton Cash author Peter Schweizer. The 2010 Haiti earthquake crisis was another bonanza for the foundation and its partners. One might also surmise, from the recent DOGE reports, that the fabulous armature for grift that USAID became, spawning countless NGOs, was engineered by Obama appointees like Samantha Powers and Hillary’s State Department machine.

In 2015, Hillary, off-and-running, came to the rescue of the Democratic National Committee. The party was foundering in debt. It entered a joint fund-raising agreement with a PAC called Hillary for America (HFA) and the Hillary Victory Fund. The agreement gave Hillary control over the DNC’s finances, strategy, and staffing decisions that enabled her to snake out Senator Bernie Sanders for the nomination. Hillary’s nomination, the drive toward her “turn,” was when the trouble really blossomed.

Pitted against the rising outsider, Donald Trump, in 2016, Hillary’s lack of charisma was sinking her campaign. So, with a little help from John Brennan at the CIA, Glenn Simpson’s Fusion GPS political media company, the FBI under Director Jim Comey, and lawfare ninja Marc Elias at the Perkins Coie DC law firm, the Russia collusion hoax was dreamed up and put into action.

That was the “original sin” that set up the Party of hoaxes, hustles, and hatred to become greatest lie-spewing operation in US history, with reverberations for the decade-to-come. It also became the greatest ass-covering op in US history, with each successive raft of lies — the Mueller Investigation, impeachment #1, the stolen election of 2020 and installation of “Joe Biden,” the J-6 op, impeachment #2, the Trump prosecutions of 2024 — all requiring successive layers of cover-up and lies.

Since the news media despised Donald Trump, and was convinced by its own bullshit that Hillary would win the 2016 election, they all ran with the Russia collusion story and turned it into RussiaGate. They miscalculated, of course. Mr. Trump won, a stunning surprise, a shock really to everyone, including Mr. Trump himself, who utterly lacked experience running a government and was bamboozled, sand-bagged, and eventually hoaxed into defeat — Covid-19 being the coup-de-grace. The news media had to continue lying to the country throughout and beyond all of that to pretend that they were not equally culpable for all this mischief.

And so, they ran with every deception of “Joe Biden’s” ruinous term in office. Alas for them, the indefatigable Mr. Trump rallied, persevered through the concocted prosecutions cooked up by Norm Eisen, Mary McCord, Lisa Monaco, and the rest of lawfare ninjahood, and is now back in power with an assembled team of appointees who are the Left’s worst nightmare.

What kept it all going — all the lying, gaslighting, deception, prevarication, and sedition — was the lack of accountability. It was a fatal intoxicant. That’s over now, though turning in the direction of justice is necessarily difficult and delicate, considering the elevated level of derangement among the public, the fragility of the national psyche, and the danger signals emanating from the zeitgeist.

It looks like the accounting will begin in earnest now. We are going to find out who was acting behind the empty figure of “Joe Biden,” and who ran the auto-pen. And working backward from there, this will all unspool in one, long, appalling thread of treason.

United States Steel Corp. shares surged to their highest level since April 2011 after President Trump announced on Truth Social his full backing of a partnership between the Pittsburgh-based steelmaker and Japan's Nippon Steel.

Trump confirmed that U.S. Steel will remain headquartered in Pittsburgh, calling the deal the largest investment in Pennsylvania's history and a first critical step in revitalizing the nation's steel industry, aligning with his 'America First' agenda of rebuilding critical supply chains. 

"I am proud to announce that, after much consideration and negotiation, US Steel will REMAIN in America, and keep its Headquarters in the Great City of Pittsburgh," Trump wrote on Truth Social. 

He continued, "For many years, the name, "United States Steel" was synonymous with Greatness, and now, it will be again. This will be a planned partnership between United States Steel and Nippon Steel, which will create at least 70,000 jobs, and add $14 Billion Dollars to the U.S. Economy." 

The president said much of the investment will unfold over the next 14 months and will be "the largest Investment in the History of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania."

Trump concluded the post by stating: "My tariff policies will ensure that steel will once again be, forever, MADE IN AMERICA. From Pennsylvania to Arkansas, and from Minnesota to Indiana, AMERICAN MADE is BACK. I will see you all at U.S. Steel in Pittsburgh on Friday, May 30, for a BIG rally."

Earlier, a Wall Street Journal report said that Nippon sweetened the deal by "roughly doubling its spending plan and even pledging to build a brand-new mill to win Washington's blessing for its takeover of U.S. Steel." 

While Trump initially criticized the deal, he has since warmed to it because it aligns with America First's policy goals of bolstering domestic supply chains and revitalizing manufacturing. 

The merger agreement between U.S. Steel and Nippon, which values U.S. Steel at $55 per share, expires June 18 unless extended.

Shares of U.S. Steel jumped to the highest level since April 2011 following the president's Truth Social post. 

Meanwhile, the United Steelworkers union remains strongly opposed, citing Nippon's history of undercutting U.S. steel markets.

As the U.S. heads into Memorial Day weekend, with pools opening, millions set to travel, and backyard barbecues just ahead, a late-session report from the Financial Times revealed that one of President Trump's first Project Stargate AI infrastructure projects is underway in Texas. 

According to FT's sources, the under-construction AI data center in Abilene, Texas, is the first U.S. Stargate project, and Oracle is purchasing a staggering 400,000 Nvidia GB200 "Superchips" that will be housed in eight buildings. When the facility comes online next year, the AI chips will require a massive 1.2 gigawatts of electricity. 

Site owners Crusoe and Blue Owl Capital have raised $15 billion in debt and equity to finance the Abilene project. JPMorgan provided a sizeable chunk of the debt financing, totaling $9.6 billion across two loans, with $7.1 billion announced this week, according to people familiar with the matter.

Crusoe and Blue Owl have separately invested about $5 billion in cash. Oracle has signed a 15-year lease for the mega project that will be fully operational by mid-2026. 

Your hard hat tour of OpenAI’s Stargate megafactory in Abilene, TX with @sama @ChaseLochmiller and lots of red dirt

pic.twitter.com/mMkeKpLVOU

The Abilene facility is part of the broader Stargate project, a $500 billion effort to scale U.S. AI computing backed by OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle, and Abu Dhabi's MGX. The new Abilene data center will rival Elon Musk's plans to expand his "Colossus" data center in Memphis, Tennessee. 

"The Abilene data center is a crucial step in OpenAI's move to reduce its dependence on Microsoft," FT noted, adding, "OpenAI and Microsoft agreed to terminate their exclusivity agreement earlier this year after the startup became frustrated that its demand for power far exceeded the US tech giant's supply."

Sources said Oracle will be leasing the computer power of the 400,000 Nvidia GB200 chips to chatbot startup OpenAI.

Meanwhile, massive U.S. data centers continue to come online—even as China's DeepSeek AI has demonstrated high efficiency, delivering more useful computation with less power. This raises a critical question: Have U.S. AI projects achieved similar levels of efficiency, or are they falling behind in the AI race? Remember what Goldman said about the data center peak capacity in April? Well...

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

America’s housing market has been in a “deep freeze” for more than a year.  

The combination of very high interest rates and very high home prices has frozen millions of potential buyers out of the market.  As a result, home sales have fallen to extremely depressed levels.  When I first warned that we were heading into a housing market depression, a lot of people thought that I was exaggerating.  But now the numbers show that is exactly what has happened.  

The following are 6 signs that the housing market depression in the United States is getting even worse.

#1 Sales of previously-owned homes in the U.S. just fell again.  In fact, we just witnessed the slowest April that we have seen since 2009…

The spring housing market continues to struggle amid high interest rates and low consumer confidence.

Sales of previously owned homes in April declined 0.5% from March to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 4 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. That is the slowest April pace since 2009.

In 2009, there were 306 million people living in the United States.

Today, there are 340 million people living in the United States.

So the fact that we have fallen to a level that we haven’t seen since the Great Recession should deeply trouble all of us.

#2 Sales of previously-owned homes are falling even though active listings and new listings are both rising…

Active listings—the total number of homes for sale—last month hit the highest level since March 2020. They climbed 1.2% from a month earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis and rose 16.7% year over year.

New listings rose to the highest level since July 2022, increasing 1.3% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis and 8.6% year over year—the largest annual gain since May 2024.

“A lot of people are selling their homes and downsizing because they’re worried about the economy,” said Meme Loggins, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Portland, OR. “During the pandemic, everybody wanted more space for a home office or for their kids to run around, but now people are more focused on saving money. A lot of folks are getting rid of their investment properties, and I’m working with a couple of federal employees who are afraid of losing their jobs, so they’re selling their homes and thinking of moving into condos.”

#3 Most potential young homebuyers have been completely forced out of the market.  Shockingly, the average age of a homebuyer in the U.S. has surged to an all-time record high of 56…

The average age of homebuyers in the U.S. has risen by six years since July 2023 — another sign that younger Americans are being priced out of the market due to escalating ownership costs.

The average age of homebuyers is now 56, up from 49 in 2023, according to the National Association of Realtors’ annual state-of-the-market report released Monday. That’s a historic high, up from an average age in the low-to-mid 40s in the early 2010s.

#4 The median age of first-time homebuyers is spiking as well…

The median age of first-time buyers also rose from 35 to 38, while the share of first-timers dropped from 32% to 24% of all buyers for the year ending July 2024. That marks the lowest percentage since NAR started tracking the metric in 1981.

“In my two decades in the mortgage business, I’ve never seen a more difficult time for millennials to purchase a home,” says Bob Driscoll, senior vice president and director of residential lending at Massachusetts-based bank Rockland Trust.

This is a really bad thing for our society.

If most young couples cannot purchase a home until they are in their late thirties, something has gone horribly, horribly wrong.

#5 Zillow is reporting that home values have fallen in 27 U.S. states so far this year.  Is this the beginning of a price crash?…

Home values fell in half the country as the housing market faces a nationwide downturn.

According to Zillow, monthly home values dropped in 27 out of the 50 states this year. While Florida, Colorado, Washington, D.C., California and Washington state experienced the greatest value declines from March to April, the data could foreshadow a larger housing market shift.

#6 Meanwhile, employers continue to conduct mass layoffs all over the nation, and this is only going to increase pressure on the housing market.  For example, Walmart just announced that it will be laying off about 1,500 very well paid corporate employees…

Walmart is laying off around 1,500 corporate employees across various departments within its home office in Bentonville, Arkansas, multiple reports say.

In a memo shared with associates on May 21, Walmart executives said the company is “reshaping” some of its teams in an effort to modernize its business and enhance “associate, customer and member experiences.”

Most of the U.S. population simply cannot afford to shell out several thousand dollars for a mortgage payment every month.

Either interest rates will have to come down or housing prices will.

And if housing prices start falling like we saw in 2008 and 2009, that will cause all sorts of problems for our major financial institutions.

So hopefully the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates before it is too late.

One recent survey discovered that financial stress is at an all-time high for 70 percent of the U.S. population.

Absurdly high housing costs are one of the biggest reasons why so many people are financially stressed right now.

Home prices are way too high and so are rental prices.

If you were able to purchase a home and lock in a mortgage more than five years ago, you were extremely fortunate.

Those that wish to relocate now are facing ridiculously high prices and painfully high interest rates.

It has been said that he who hesitates is lost.

In this case, that is so true.

A lot of people out there that waited to pull the trigger have completely missed their chance.

Now the housing market is entering a very difficult chapter, and a tremendous amount of pain is ahead.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Two weeks after Travis Stice, CEO of shale giant Diamondback Energy, warned that the US energy industry "is at a tipping point" and - more ominously - that US shale output has finally peaked (resulting in Diamondback slashing its capex budget as Saudi Arabia launched the latest OPEC+ price war), we now have confirmation that the CEO was right.

As Goldman commodity strategist Yulia Grigsby writes in her latest Oil Tracker note, amid continued declines in oil prices, there was a silver lining: namely that US total rig and frac spread count continued to decline quickly, especially in the Permian, -14% and -22% from year ago, respectively, as shown in the chart below.

Grigsby speculates that while the Permian activity slowdown may partly reflect the preservation of the best inventory rather than wells shutdowns, oil fields with higher breakevens, e.g. North Dakota shale, are also planning to reduce drilling activity. 

And, having previously taken stock of Q1 earnings reports, we remind readers that several high profile public producers already reduced their drilling and completion activity on the back of lower prices and most producers reduced their 2025 capex guidance. As a result, Goldman expects the crude production in the US Lower 48 to decline by 0.4mb/d by 2026Q4 from 2024Q4.

Incidentally the latest Baker Hughes data showed that rotary rigs in the US tumbled by another 8 in the latest week...

...and are now down to a 4 year low of 465 as the industry enters crisis "cash conservation" mode.

But one doesn't have to believe in "peak oil" to expect further US production declines: regulation and sharply higher extraction prices may suffice to send the price of oil surging.

According to Bloomberg, Texas regulators are warning that wastewater from fracking in the biggest US oil basin is causing a "widespread" increase in underground pressure — a development that risks hindering crude output and harming the environment.

Shale oil wells in the Permian Basin generate millions of gallons of chemical-laced water, which drillers then pump back into the earth. Landowners and activists have said for years that this process causes toxic leaks. Now the state’s powerful oil and gas regulator, the Railroad Commission of Texas, is acknowledging the scale of the problem and imposing restrictions that could increase crude production costs.

Chevron Corp., BP Plc, and Coterra Energy Inc. as well as water management specialists Waterbridge Operating LLC and NGL Energy Partners, are among the companies that have received notices about the pressure issue from the Railroad Commission of Texas, according to a Bloomberg News review of public records. The RRC sent the messages to companies applying for new wastewater disposal wells.

Producers began injecting more water into shallow rock formations roughly five years ago after pumping it deep below the surface was found to trigger earthquakes. But the volumes are now so large that the dirty water is breaching wells and causing the ground to swell and rupture, threatening to contaminate drinking supplies for people and livestock.

Potential restrictions on both deep and shallow injection zones could mean producers will have to pump their wastewater farther afield, increase recycling or pay to clean it up. All of these options would add to costs in the Permian, which accounts for about half of America's total crude production. It would be the latest blow to US producers already grappling with low oil prices and a shrinking inventory of top-tier drilling sites, despite President Donald Trump’s pledge to unleash US “energy dominance” by backing fossil fuels. 

According to Bloomberg, the RRC has updated its standard language in the letters to producers in a nod to the severity of the problem. It now says that disposing wastewater into the Delaware Mountain Group rock formation in the prolific western part of the Permian “has resulted in widespread increases in reservoir pressure that may not be in the public interest and may harm mineral and freshwater resources in Texas.”

“Drilling hazards, hydrocarbon production losses, uncontrolled flows, ground surface deformation, and seismic activity have been observed,” the commission says. 

Guaranteeing that US oil output will slide, starting next month, the RRC will place limits on water-pressure levels due to “the physical limitations of the disposal reservoirs.” It will also require operators to assess old or unplugged oil wells within half a mile of the disposal site, twice the previous distance.

The RRC’s staff has been studying issues related to wastewater disposal for several years, spokesperson Bryce Dubee said in an email. 

“Let there be no doubt that our work and analysis to protect residents and the environment in West Texas has been happening for years and will continue,” Dubee said. The commission conducted a two-hour webinar on Thursday to explain its new guidelines for permitting saltwater disposal wells in the Permian.

Permian Basin oil production has soared over the past decade to about 6.7 million barrels of oil each day, more than the output from Iraq and Kuwait combined, and in some views has become a global swing producer. But for each barrel of crude, it produces three to five barrels of water that contain so much salt and toxic materials that pumping it back underground is the only cost-effective disposal method. 

The shallow disposal zones, located between oil-rich layers of shale and the surface, consist of porous rock that can absorb water. But the 100-year history of crude production in the Permian means they are perforated with thousands of well bores, some up to a mile deep. Because of higher water pressure, fluids are now breaking through to oil drilling areas and old wells that were either abandoned or poorly cemented shut decades ago. 

The regulator’s tighter restrictions come just weeks after Coterra was forced to halt some oil production in Culberson County, Texas, after waste fluids leaked into its wells. Executives said the problem was localized and could be fixed by strengthening the protective casing around its wells. 

Coterra is remediating the affected wells but did not give an expected completion date. The company said it doesn’t expect the issue to affect its long-term reserves. 

“We thought we were well calibrated,” Blake Sirgo, Coterra’s senior vice president for operations, said on a call with analysts May 6. “Sometimes the oil field still surprises us.”

One person who’s not surprised is Sarah Stogner, the district attorney for three West Texas counties in the Permian Basin. She’s been warning of rising subsurface pressure since 2021, when a landowner noticed oil and gas oozing from old wells on her property that had sat idle for decades. Stogner, then a lawyer for the landowner, publicized the case on social media, calling them “zombie wells.” Over the next few years, several more wells blew out in the area, with some ejecting toxic fluids more than 100 feet in the air for several days. 

“These were old fields that suffered from a lack of pressure for decades,” she said. “Suddenly we were seeing pressure where it shouldn’t be. It was clear even back then there was a field-wide problem.” 

The RRC mostly ignored her appeals for a thorough investigation, she said. Its elected commissioners, whose campaigns are largely funded by the oil and gas industry, framed the issue as primarily a plugging problem, claiming that old and abandoned wells had been improperly cemented shut, or not at all. 

But it’s now becoming clearer that the underlying problem is too much wastewater injection. 

One blowout near Imperial, Texas, gushed toxic water high in the air for two weeks and had to be cemented shut in 2022. Researchers at Southern Methodist University later found the ground around the eruption site had been steadily bulging for three years, eventually rising 40 centimeters (16 inches) before it burst open. Wastewater injection volumes several kilometers away “strongly correlate” with the ground movement, they said in a paper published in July 2024. 

SkyGeo, an analytics company that uses radar to track ground movements, reached a similar conclusion.

“The injection of saltwater causes this unnaturally high pressure, and then it’s going to find weak spots to come out,” said CEO Pieter Bas Leezenberg.

The RRC said its new permitting requirements will “ensure injected fluids remain confined to the disposal formations to safeguard ground and surface fresh water.” To Stogner, the measures are an admission that toxic water leaks are a serious problem for the regulator, and for the Permian Basin. “They just completely ignored us,” she said. “But now they cannot deny that it’s happening.”

And with that, oil producers will no longer be able to sweep the toxic problem under the rug - or ground as it may be - and since the mandated changes will require millions if not billions in additional spending to comply with regulations, which means all-in production costs are set to soar, and since oil prices will only continue to slide, we are about to see a wholesale shutdown of the Permian, and - as because the commodity cycle never fail - all the excess production in the US will turn into a deficit, sending oil prices soaring as the commodity bullwhip effect comes home.
 

Last week's Istanbul peace talks between Russia and Ukraine did not lead to much in terms of achieving ceasefire or peace as there were no breakthroughs whatsoever. However, it did give the two sides a chance to increase their swaps of POWs, and this is where Istanbul bore fruit.

The delegations agreed to a swap of 1,000 captives from each side, totaling 2,000 - which makes it by far the biggest single exchange of the war. Friday saw the two sides complete an initial round of fulfilling this agreement, with almost 800 people released.

Image source: Zelenskyy/Telegram

The Russian Ministry of Defense said in a statement that "270 Russian servicemen and 120 civilians" were returned to Russia on Friday, wile Ukraine said 390 people arrived back to Ukraine, including 270 military personnel and 120 civilians. Three women were among the Ukrainians released.

"We are bringing our people home," Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky declared on social media. The swap happened at the Belarus-Ukraine border, and was facilitated by several buses.  

Zelensky confirmed: "The first part of the agreement to exchange 1000 for 1000 has been implemented."

"On the Ukrainian side, dozens of people waited for hours to greet the returnees at a meeting place in Chernihiv region in northern Ukraine, many hoping to see their family members among those being brought back," observed one report.

"Many brought Ukrainian flags and photographs of their loved ones – in case any of the returnees would recognize them and give them information about their whereabouts," the report added.

The NY Times alleges that Ukrainian prisoners in Russian hands are treated much worse:

Unlike Moscow, Kyiv is also sensitive to demands by the Western nations backing its military that Ukraine comply with international law on the treatment of prisoners.

The Ukrainians allow visits to prisoner of war camps by both the United Nations and Red Cross; those organizations have largely been denied access in Russia and the Ukrainian territory it occupies.

Russia and Ukraine have begun a large exchange of prisoners of war on Friday, the Russian Defense Ministry said, with around 1,000 soldiers from each side expected to be swapped at the Ukraine-Belarus border when completed. https://t.co/ud6wQNWAbN pic.twitter.com/NovYMwGJkp

This largest prisoner exchange of the war is expected to continue over the coming days. There remain significant logistical challenges to be able to make it happen.

As drones and large-scale aerial attacks continue being exchanged, prisoner swaps have been rare bright spot in the war. Other than this, the warring sides haven't agreed on anything else.

By Hanna Bechtel of The College Fix

Capitalism is an “oppressive system” that is “incredibly difficult to survive,” a financial coach said during a recent lecture at Iowa State University.

The “Anti-Capitalism Personal Finance Lecture” featured Leo Aquino, a “non-binary Filipinx writer, journalist, and financial coach” known for “their commitment to uplifting BIPOC and LGBTQ+ stories,” according to the event description.

During the lecture, Aquino advocated for an “anti-capitalist” budgeting approach that encourages people to reframe their relationship with money to prioritize well-being over profit, mainly benefiting queer and trans-identifying individuals.

The speaker defined anti-capitalism as “the belief that financial systems do not need to adhere to capitalist values for us to survive.”

An anti-capitalist personal finance perspective supports workers’ abilities to control their labor and decide how profits are invested. It requires people to redefine their “definition of wealth,” Aquino said.

The speaker encouraged students to stop blaming themselves for their financial situations and start questioning the underlying system.

Aquino defined capitalism as “an economic system where workers are required to sell [their] labor for a wage in order to survive.”

The financial coach said this system prioritizes profits over people while causing burnout, depression, and anxiety. “[Capitalism] is an oppressive system profiting from our lack of financial literacy and interpersonal conflicts around money.”

Further, capitalism “necessitates racism, ableism, homophobia, colonialism, and other forms of oppression to perpetuate conflict.” It “has forced people from marginalized communities to do unrealistic things to survive in an oppressive system,” Aquino said.

The speaker contrasted traditional budgeting, defined as a monthly estimate of income and expenses, with anti-capitalist budgeting, described as a “neutral space for us to practice compassionate data analysis.”

Aquino said the goal is not “to make the rich richer” but to “help others save, budget and spend money in line with their values.”

The financial coach also described several means of budgeting, with each depending on one’s own personal financial aptitude. One budgeting strategy included using a “needs vs. wants” model. Aquino said “some things are needs and wants [at the same time] … things like makeup and dining out are needs for our mental health.”

People should be able to spend quality time eating out with friends without “thinking so much about the financial consequences of that behavior.” An oppressive capitalist economic system is the cause of this internal conflict, the speaker said.

Further, Aquino characterized money as a tool used to navigate capitalism “with more ease,” adding people don’t necessarily want more money, “they want more freedom to do the things they love and enjoy.”

Queer and trans communities in particular benefit the most from anti-capitalist finance movements. “One-third of LGBTQ elders live in poverty and cannot afford to retire due to discrimination against their community in the past,” Aquino said.

Meanwhile, young trans communities are “going into debt for gender-affirming healthcare due to current legislation.”

When an ISU student asked about how this form of financial planning resists capitalism, Aquino said, “you can only do so much.” Everyone has to be willing to make compromises while still living in a capitalist system.

The coach said people must still advocate “for the changes [they] want to see in the economic world.”

“It is less about resistance and more about coping,” Aquino said.

Aquino is the founder of Queer and Trans Wealth, a financial coaching and education business “dedicated to increasing the financial literacy and economic empowerment of queer and trans communities,” according to its website.

The College Fix reached out to Aquino and the university in the last week via email for further comment on the lecture and its contents, but received no response.

Aquino’s website lists several personal writings, which include titles such as “How to crowdfund your gender-affirming surgery,” “How to share your pronouns,” and “How to make your own porn.”

Authored by Bradley Peak via CoinTelegraph.com,

Is Tether MiCA compliant?

The EU’s new Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation, better known as MiCA, is the first major attempt by a global economic power to create clear, region-wide rules for the crypto space, and stablecoins are a big focus.

MiCA mandates best practices. If a stablecoin is going to be traded in the EU, its issuer has to follow some stringent rules:

1. You need a license

To issue a stablecoin in Europe, you must become a fully authorized electronic money institution (EMI). That’s the same kind of license traditional fintechs need to offer e-wallets or prepaid cards. It’s not cheap and it’s not quick. 

2. Most of your reserves have to sit in European banks

This is one of the most controversial parts of MiCA. If you issue a “significant” stablecoin — and Tether’s USDT certainly qualifies — at least 60% of your reserves must be held in EU-based banks. The logic is to keep the financial system safe. 

3. Full transparency is non-negotiable

MiCA requires detailed, regular disclosures. Issuers have to publish a white paper and provide updates on their reserves, audits and operational changes. This level of reporting is new territory for some stablecoins, especially those that have historically avoided public scrutiny.

4. Non-compliant coins are getting delisted

If a token doesn’t comply, it won’t be tradable on regulated EU platforms. Binance, for example, has delisted USDT trading pairs for users in the European Economic Area (EEA). Other exchanges are following suit.

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) clarified that people in Europe can still hold or transfer USDT, but it can’t be offered to the public or listed on official venues. 

In other words, you might still have USDT in your wallet, but good luck trying to swap it on a regulated platform.

Key reasons why Tether rejects MiCA regulations

Tether is unique in that it has explained why it wants nothing to do with MiCA regulations. The company’s leadership, especially CEO Paolo Ardoino, has been pretty vocal about what they see as serious flaws in the regulation, from financial risks to privacy concerns to the bigger picture of who stablecoins are really for.

1. The banking rule could backfire

One of MiCA’s most talked-about rules says that “significant” stablecoins — like Tether’s USDt  — must keep at least 60% of their reserves in European banks. The idea is to make stablecoins safer and more transparent. But Ardoino sees it differently.

He’s warned that this could create new problems, forcing stablecoin issuers to rely so heavily on traditional banks could make the whole system more fragile. 

After all, if there’s a wave of redemptions and those banks don’t have enough liquidity to keep up, we’d witness a struggling bank and a stablecoin crisis simultaneously.

Instead, Tether prefers to keep most of its reserves in US Treasurys, assets it says are liquid, low-risk and much easier to redeem quickly if needed.

2. They don’t trust the digital euro

Tether also has a broader issue with the direction Europe is heading, especially regarding a digital euro. Ardoino has openly criticized it, raising alarms about privacy. 

He has argued that a centrally controlled digital currency could be used to track how people spend their money, and even control or restrict transactions if someone falls out of favor with the system.

Privacy advocates have echoed similar concerns. While the European Central Bank insists that privacy is a top priority (with features like offline payments), Tether isn’t convinced. In their eyes, putting that much financial power in the hands of one institution is asking for trouble.

3. Tether’s users aren’t in Brussels. They’re in Brazil, Turkey and Nigeria

At the heart of it, Tether sees itself as a lifeline for people in countries dealing with inflation, unstable banking systems and limited access to dollars. 

These are places like Turkey, Argentina and Nigeria, where USDT is often more useful than the local currency.

MiCA, with all its licensing hoops and reserve mandates, would require Tether to shift focus and invest heavily in meeting EU-specific standards. That’s something the company says it’s not willing to do, not at the expense of the markets it sees as most in need of financial tools like USDT.

Did you know? Turkey ranks among the top countries for cryptocurrency adoption, with 16% of its population engaged in crypto activities. This high adoption rate is largely driven by the devaluation of the Turkish lira and economic instability, prompting citizens to seek alternatives like stablecoins to preserve their purchasing power.

What happens when Tether doesn’t comply with MiCA

Tether’s decision to skip MiCA didn’t exactly fly under the radar. It’s already having real consequences, especially for exchanges and users in Europe.

1. Exchanges are dropping USDT

Big names like Binance and Kraken didn’t wait around. To stay on the right side of EU regulators, they’ve already delisted USDT trading pairs for users in the European Economic Area. Binance had removed them by the end of March 2025. Kraken followed close behind, removing not just USDT but also other non-compliant stablecoins like EURT and PayPal’s PYUSD.

2. Users are left with fewer options

If you’re in Europe and holding USDT, you’re not totally out of luck; you can still withdraw or swap it on certain platforms. But you won’t be trading it on major exchanges anymore. That’s already pushing users toward alternatives like USDC and EURC, which are fully MiCA-compliant and widely supported.

Even major crypto payment processors are pulling support, leaving users with fewer options for spending their crypto directly.

3. A hit to liquidity? Probably.

Pulling USDT from European exchanges could make the markets a bit shakier. Less liquidity, wider spreads and more volatility during big price moves are all on the table. Some traders will adjust quickly. Others? Not so much.

Did you know? Tether (USDT) is the most traded cryptocurrency globally, surpassing even Bitcoin in daily volume. In 2024, it facilitated over $20.6 trillion in transactions and boasts a user base exceeding 400 million worldwide.

Tether vs MiCA regulation

Tether may be out of sync with the EU, but it’s far from retreating. If anything, the company is doubling down elsewhere, looking for friendlier ground and broader horizons.

Firstly, Tether’s picked El Salvador as its new base, a country that has fully embraced crypto. After getting a digital asset service provider license, the company is setting up a real headquarters there. Ardoino and other top execs are making the move too.

Moreover, after banking over $5 billion in profits in early 2024, Tether is putting its capital to work:

• AI: Through its venture arm, Tether Evo, the company has picked up stakes in firms like Northern Data Group and Blackrock Neurotech. Tether has also launched Tether AI, an open-source, decentralized AI platform designed to operate on any device without centralized servers or API keys. The goal is to use AI to boost operations and maybe build some new tools along the way.

• Infrastructure and AgTech: Tether invested in Adecoagro, a company focused on sustainable farming and renewable energy. It’s a surprising move, but it fits Tether’s bigger strategy of backing real-world, resilient systems.

• Media and beyond: There are also signs Tether wants a footprint in content and communications, signaling it’s thinking far beyond crypto alone.

Tether’s MiCA exit highlights crypto’s global regulatory chaos

Tether walking away from MiCA is a snapshot of a much bigger issue in crypto: How hard it is to build a business in a world where every jurisdiction plays by its own rulebook.

The classic game of regulatory arbitrage

This isn’t Tether’s first rodeo when it comes to navigating regulations. Like many crypto companies, they’ve mastered the art of regulatory arbitrage, finding the friendliest jurisdiction and setting up shop there. 

Europe brings in strict rules? Fine, Tether sets up in El Salvador, where crypto is welcomed with open arms.

However, it does raise questions. If big players can simply move jurisdictions to dodge regulations, how effective are those rules in the first place? And does that leave retail users protected or just further confused?

A crypto world that’s all over the map

The bigger issue is that the global regulatory landscape is incredibly fragmented. Europe wants full compliance, transparency and reserve mandates. The US is still sending mixed signals. Asia is split; Hong Kong is pro-crypto, while China stays cold. 

Hong Kong has also passed the Stablecoin Bill to license fiat-backed issuers and boost its Web3 ambitions. Meanwhile, Latin America is embracing crypto as a tool for financial access.

For companies, it’s a mess. You can’t build for one global market; you must constantly adapt, restructure or pull out entirely. For users, it creates massive gaps in access. A coin available in one country might be inaccessible in another just because of local policy.

As a final thought: Tether’s resistance to MiCA seems to be more than just a protest against red tape. 

It’s making a bet that crypto’s future will be shaped outside Brussels, not inside it.

Authored by Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Attorney’s Office announced on May 22 that it had arrested a woman for assaulting then-interim U.S. Attorney Ed Martin.

Emily Gabriella Sommer, 32, allegedly spat on Martin while he was conducting a television interview. The incident was caught on camera. 

According to a statement from the District U.S. Attorney’s Office, Sommer approached Martin while he was standing outside its headquarters in Washington, cursing at him.

“Martin turned to face Sommer. Sommer then said, ‘Are you Ed Martin? You are. Ed Martin.’ Sommer lunged at Martin and spit on his shoulder,” the statement said.

Sommer cursed at Martin again as she turned and walked away, shouting,

“You are a disgusting man. ... My name is Emily Gabriella Sommer, and you are served.”

Following the incident, Sommer allegedly replied to numerous posts on Martin’s X account, taking responsibility for the incident. According to court documents, she posted the same message in each reply.

“ED, that was me that spit in your face today ... that absolutely definitely spit in your face on camera. Hi, hello,” the posts read. 

Martin, the former chair of the Missouri Republican Party, was appointed as interim U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia earlier this year by President Donald Trump. 

Trump nominated him for the position on a permanent basis, but had to rescind the offer after some GOP senators refused to support him. 

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) told reporters on May 6 that he would not vote to confirm Martin because they disagreed on the treatment of individuals accused of rioting at the Capitol building on Jan. 6, 2021. 

Tills said Martin seemed “like a good man” and that he’d made a good case that some of these individuals had been “over-prosecuted,” but also said there was “friction” on which individuals should be prosecuted. 

“If Mr. Martin were being put forth as a U.S. attorney for any district except the district where Jan. 6 happened, the protests happened, I’d probably support him,” Tillis said. 

“But not in this district.” 

For his part, Martin had a sense of humor about the setback. 

He posted on X a picture of himself dressed as pope with the words “Plot twist,” since Trump’s announcement was made on the same day the Vatican was in the process of electing Pope Leo XIV.  

On May 13, Martin announced that Trump had appointed him to a dual role in the Department of Justice as “pardon attorney” and director of the Weaponization Working Group, which will investigate government prosecutorial overreach.

In Goldman's latest global steel outlook, analysts Aurelia Waltham, Eoin Dinsmore, and others highlight a key inflection point: China's share of global steel production has declined for the first time in over two decades, reversing a multi-decade expansion period. 

"After more than two decades of China increasing its share of global steel production, we believe this structural trend has now come to an end as China's domestic demand continues to falter and barriers to steel exports intensify," Waltham and her team wrote in a note published on Friday morning.

The analysts noted that their global steel supply and demand model forecasted a 3% and 4% year-over-year increase in ex-China steel demand for 2025 and 2026, respectively. As Chinese steel exports are expected to decline, ex-China crude steel production is projected to rise by 3% in 2025 and 8% in 2026. 

"While we are bearish on US and European steel prices on the three-to-six month horizon, we expect a re-acceleration in demand growth and lower Chinese steel exports to provide price upside in 2026," Waltham said. 

They outlined the biggest risk to their forecast of China losing global market share:

We see the biggest risk to our call that China will start to lose market share of global steel production to the rest of the world over the next two years being indirect[1] Chinese steel exports continuing to climb, pushing down rest of world apparent steel demand. This would likely see China steel demand from the manufacturing sector exceeding our current expectations, preventing a decline in Chinese steel output and apparent domestic demand, while at the same time meaning rest of world steel production growth would fall below end use consumption growth. However, this would be at odds with China's policy to reduce steel output.

Following a 25-year expansion that saw China increase its share of global steel production from approximately 15% in 2000 to about 55% by 2020, analysts now forecast a decline to about 50% by 2026.

China's steel production for 2025 already peaked in March. 

Key takeaways about China's declining influence in global steel markets: 

• Peak Reached: China's steel production likely peaked in March 2025 and is expected to decline by 2–3% YoY through 2026.

• Domestic demand slowdown: A continued decline in construction activity, especially new housing starts (forecasted to drop 24% in 2025), will more than offset gains from manufacturing (e.g., autos and appliances).

• Export headwinds: Chinese finished and semi-finished steel exports are forecast to drop 33% YoY in 2026, from 12% to under 8% of ex-China steel consumption.

• Policy risk: If exports or output stay elevated, the Chinese government may impose mandated production cuts (likely via emissions controls) in Q4 2025 to meet policy targets.

China's economy is still a mess. Property sector will continue to weigh on steel demand. 

However, the analysts view a rebound in ex-China steel:

• Ex-China growth: Production outside China is expected to rise 3% in 2025 and 8% in 2026, helped by recovering demand and lower competition from Chinese exports.

• Regional demand: Demand in the U.S., EU, and India will gradually improve. Apparent demand outside China is forecast to rise 3–4% annually into 2026.

Global Steel Price Outlook: 

• Near-term weakness: U.S. and European prices face further downside in the next 3–6 months due to lackluster demand and high inventories.

• 2026 upside: Prices are forecast to rise in 2026 as Chinese exports fall and global demand picks up, particularly in Asia and the EU. Anti-dumping measures and trade friction will help contain Chinese supply abroad.

European Steel Price Forcast

US Hot Rolled Coil Price Forecast

The long-standing concern over China flooding global markets with steel may finally be easing—a shift that could pave the way for Western producers to ramp up output. We anticipate this trend will be evident in the U.S amid President Trump's 'America First' era. 

Despite the plunge in homebuilder confidence, US New Home Sales soared in April to 743k SAAR...

The 10.9% MoM surge in sales in April (versus a 4.0% MoM expected decline) was bolstered by a big downward revision in March from +7.4% MoM to just +2.6%...

This is the biggest beat since August 2022... and the second big downward revision in a row...

Meanwhile, the median new home sales price decreased 2% from a year ago to $407,200 (on an annual basis, prices have largely been retreating over the past 12 months) and is now back below existing home sale prices...

This month, 34% of builders reporting cutting prices, the largest share since December 2023, according to recent data from the National Association of Home Builders.

The surge in new home sales comes as mortgage rates tumbled...

So, don't hold your breath for a recovery - rates are rising once again!

It was set to be a relatively quiet day, with stock futures unchanged, yields modestly lower, bitcoin just shy of record highs... and then Trump woke up. 

First, in a post on his Truth Social just after 7:20am ET, the clearly angry president said that unless iPhone that are sold in the US are not also built in the US, then a "Tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the U.S."

The comment immediately wiped out tens of billions in value from AAPL stock, which tumbled $10 to $193, or more than 4%...

... and while the news also dragged broader futures lower, Trump saved his second market punishment for 25 minutes later when at 7:45am ET, the president doubled down on his post-awakening stream of Truth Social consciousness and wrote that he is "recommending a straight 50% Tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025. There is no Tariff if the product is built or manufactured in the United States." 

His ire was likely triggered by overnight reports that EU talks with the US had gone nowhere, which is why he said that Europe's "powerful Trade Barriers, Vat Taxes, ridiculous Corporate Penalties, Non-Monetary Trade Barriers, Monetary Manipulations, unfair and unjustified lawsuits against Americans Companies, and more, have led to a Trade Deficit with the U.S. of more than $250,000,000 [sic] a year, a number which is totally unacceptable."

The post slammed S&P futures which were already reeling from the AAPL news, and spoos tumbled about 100 points lower from where they were just minutes earlier.

The news also slammed bond yields, the euro, European stocks, crude, and bitcoin...

... while gold was the only asset that rose on the renewed trade war escalation.

VIX spiked back above pre-Liberation Day lows...

Now, we wait to see if 'retail' will step back in to save the day (because macro hedge funds have been positioning for just this kind of Trump-driven turmoil)

The sudden shift in Trump's temperament, not to mention markets, underscores the ongoing risk that shifts in US policy can abruptly upend market dynamics at short notice. Markets had rebounded in recent weeks on optimism that Trump was softening his approach to the tariffs and investor attention had shifted to concerns about the ballooning US debt and deficits.

“It’s going to keep markets on edge,” said Aneeka Gupta, head of macroeconomic research at Wisdom Tree UK Ltd. “Markets were hoping news on tariffs had abated until at least the 90-day pause expired, but that’s clearly not the case. Uncertainties are here to stay. We’re in for a period of very high volatility.”

The rest of this post was going to be the a recap of the overnight news, but obviously none of that matters now that Trump decided to take a nuke to newsflow and blow everything up.

As US traders were scrambling to pick up the pieces of wtf just happened, European stocks were dumping, while traders ramped up bets on further ECB monetary easing after dire wage data earlier. Money markets priced in 65 bps of additional easing in 2025, which implies three quarter-point rate cuts at the ECB’s remaining five scheduled decisions is most likely. Traders favored just two such reductions before Trump’s social media posts. 

“I think a lot of people see it as just another Trump tweet, which can be cancelled by another one in a few hours or a few days,” David Kruk, head of trading at La Financiere de L’Echiquier. “I don’t think a lot of European investors are selling on the news.” The same can no be said for US - or certainly crypto investors - who clearly relish this kind of rollercoaster idiocy.

Kruk said the bigger issue for investors remains the budget credibility of the US. Bond markets this week have jolted after Moody’s Ratings stripped the US of its top credit rating and the House’s approved a tax bill that is likely to increase the debt burden.

This week’s selloff in long-dated Treasuries presents a “great entry point” for buyers with the 30-year yield above 5%, according to Bank of America Corp. strategist Michael Hartnett.

The US government is likely to heed warnings from bond vigilantes, who are “incentivized to punish the unambiguously unsustainable path of debt and deficit,” the strategist said.

The Stoxx 600 is little changed as gains in mining and travel shares are offset by losses in insurance and consumer products. Here are the biggest European movers (or at least until the Trump tweets):

• GSK shares climb as much as 1.3% after the British drugmaker won US approval for Nucala as an add-on treatment for some patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).
• Lundbeck shares rise as much as 5.7% after Kepler Cheuvreux initiated coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation, saying the valuation doesn’t reflect the “full value” of the Danish pharma company’s late-stage pipeline.
• PVA TePla gains as much as 12% after Deutsche Bank raises recommendation on the chip equipment firm to buy from hold, seeing the firm positioned to deliver structurally higher returns from 2026 onwards.
• AJ Bell shares jump as much as 10%, the most in a year, after the investment platform beat expectations in the first half and said annual results should come in above guidance. Shares are now trading at their highest level since December.
• PolyPeptide shares jump as much as 11%, among the top performers in the Swiss Performance Index on Friday morning, after the Swiss contract development and manufacturing organization secured additional financing under its revolving credit facility.
• Azimut gains as much as 5.3%, the most in more than a month, after the Italian asset manager raised its profit outlook for the year and flagged a deal with private equity fund FSI for a digital bank called TNB.
• European mining stocks are the best performers in Europe’s Stoxx 600 benchmark on Friday, as a Treasuries selloff eased, lifting base metals prices.
• KGHM gains as much as 4.2% as Poland’s plans to lower copper tax is set boost the metal producer’s output.
• Thule gains as much as 7.7% after Nordea upgrades to buy from hold, saying the year-to-date drop in the Swedish outdoor equipment maker’s share price offers an attractive entry point.
• Yellow Cake shares jump as much as 8.3%, climbing to its highest level since January, amid reports US President Donald Trump will sign multiple nuclear-related executive actions as soon as Friday.
• Games Workshop shares fall as much as 4.1%, slipping further from a recent record high, after the maker of the Warhammer tabletop game gave a trading update, with analysts pointing to a sparser games release slate for next year and several headwinds, including tariffs.
• Matas falls as much as 11% after full-year earnings from the Danish cosmetics retail group disappointed. DNB Carnegie analysts noted a “soft set of results,” that fell short on several key metrics, including revenues.

Asian equities rebounded, putting them on track for a sixth week of gains, as risk appetite recovers on encouraging progress in trade negotiations. The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose as much as 0.7%, with Japanese shares including Nintendo, Mitsubishi Heavy and Hitachi among the biggest boosts. The Philippines’ stock benchmark jumped 1.7%, recouping Thursday’s loss spurred by a call for the cabinet to quit. Stocks also advanced in India. Investors are looking past worries over US fiscal deficit that had weighed on regional equities throughout the week. Assurances of open communication between US and China also helped lift sentiment. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index eyes its lowest close since December 2023 as it falls 0.5% on concerns over the US fiscal outlook. The drop accelerate after Trump's tweets. The Swedish krona leads G-10 currencies against the greenback, rising 1%. The pound adds 0.6%, briefly touching a fresh three-year high of $1.35. The euro also climbs 0.6%. Meanwhile, mainland Chinese shares bucked the trend, falling 0.8%. Benchmarks in Taiwan and South Korea also ended slightly lower. 

In rates, treasuries extdended their gains, with the 10Y sliding as low as 4.45% after hitting 4.62% yesterday, before moving modestly higher. 30-year yields fell 2 bps to 5.02% having reached 5.15% during Thursday’s session. Longer dated maturities also outperform in Europe with UK and German 30-year borrowing costs falling 2-3 bps each.

In commodities, oil prices are of course in the red, with WTI falling 0.3% to $61 a barrel, because Trump wants to make sure there is zero capex in the shale patch and watch production crater, sending oil to triple digits in a year or so when the bullwhip effect from his punitive policies finally catches up. Spot gold climbs $39 to around $3,333/oz. Bitcoin is steady just above $111,000.

On today's calendar we get New Home Sales and the Kansas Fed.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 -1.5%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -1.8%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -2%;
• 10-year Treasury yield -5 basis point at 4.48%
• VIX 24.54
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.5% at 1214.85
• euro +0.5% at $1.1337
• WTI crude -0.5% at $60.9/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump threatens Apple with 25% tariffs, EU with 50% tariffs
• Trump is to sign orders to boost nuclear power as soon as Friday and will invoke a wartime act over US uranium independence, according to sources.
• Trump’s trade negotiators are pushing the EU to make unilateral tariff reductions on US goods, saying without concession the bloc will not progress in talks to avoid additional 20% “reciprocal” duties. FT
• Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday the central bank will closely monitor market moves as yields on super-long Japanese government bonds (JGB) reached record highs this week. RTRS
• The U.S. and China agreed to keep lines of communication open, following a call between senior officials Thursday, signaling continued high-level engagement as both sides work toward a broader deal. CNBC
• China has lowered the ceilings on deposit rates, three banking sources with direct knowledge of the guidance said on Friday, as authorities seek to protect banks' profit margins and discourage savings. RTRS
• Big investors say they are diversifying their bond portfolios to include greater exposure to markets outside the US as Trump’s trade war and the country’s growing deficit erode the appeal of the world’s biggest debt market. FT
• Japan’s key inflation gauge accelerated to 3.5% in April, the fastest clip in more than two years, fueled by rising food and energy costs. BBG
• Germany’s Q1 GDP is revised higher from +0.2% Q/Q to +0.4% thanks to a rush of activity as companies attempted to get ahead of Trump’s tariffs. WSJ
• UK retail sales gained 1.2% in April, continuing a surprisingly strong start to the year. Consumer confidence rose to -20 in May, GfK said, also beating estimates. BBG
• Big US banks (including JPM, BAC, C, and WFC) are exploring whether to team up to issue a joint stablecoin, a step intended to fend off escalating competition from the cryptocurrency industry. WSJ
• BofA Flow Show: USD 1.8bln outflows from US equities, USD 4bln from Japanese equities, inflows into European equities for a six week, EM saw largest inflow in 14 weeks

Tariffs/Trade

• US Deputy Secretary of State Landau spoke with Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma on Thursday and acknowledged the importance of the bilateral relationship to the people of both countries, while they discussed a wide range of issues of mutual interest and agreed on the importance of keeping open lines of communication.
• US President Trump is pushing the EU to cut tariffs or face extra duties with US negotiators to tell Brussels they expect unilateral concessions, while USTR Greer is preparing to tell EU counterpart Sefcovic that recent "explanatory note" falls short of US expectations, according to FT.
• Japanese PM Ishiba said he held a call with US President Trump in which they discussed tariffs, diplomacy and security, while there might be an occasion where he visits the US for in-person talks with Trump. Furthermore, Ishiba said there are no changes to Japan's stance on US tariffs and demand for the elimination of tariffs, nor to Japan's policy of talking with the US on creating US jobs.
• Japan’s chief tariff negotiator Akazawa reiterated there is no change to stance on requesting elimination of US tariffs, but noted they aim to reach an agreement, while he plans to visit the US around May 30th for the fourth round of trade talks, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• Japan is to reportedly propose investments by Nippon Steel (5401 JT) in tariff talks with the US, according to NHK.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly in the green albeit with gains in the region capped following the indecisive performance stateside where participants digested PMI data and the House approved US President Trump's tax bill to send it to the Senate. ASX 200 eked mild gains as the strength in real estate, energy, tech, telecoms and financials was partially offset by losses in defensives and miners. Nikkei 225 returned to above the 37,000 level with the index unfazed by the firmer-than-expected Core CPI data, while Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa is visiting the US for a third round of talks and is reportedly planning to visit again late next week for a fourth round of discussions. Furthermore, Japanese PM Ishiba had a call with US President Trump and discussed US tariffs, diplomacy and security although no major developments were announced. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gained but with advances in the mainland limited in the absence of any fresh significant macro drivers, although there were some talks between the US and China at a deputy ministerial level, in which the US Deputy Secretary of State spoke with his Chinese counterpart on Thursday and discussed a wide range of issues of mutual interest. The two agreed on the importance of keeping open lines of communication.

Top Asian News

• China reportedly lowers deposit rate ceiling to protect banks' interest margins, according to Reuters sources.
• Philippine Central Bank Governor said they are looking at cutting holdings of US Treasuries, while he added they are looking at two more rate cuts which would not necessarily be consecutive and noted that a rate cut is on the table for June.
• Indian economic growth is on track, according to Reuters sources.
• Fast Retailing (9983 JT) 6M (JPY): Net Profit 233.57bln, +19.2% Y/Y, Op. Profit 304.22bln, +18.3% Y/Y; affirms FY24/25 outlook.
• China Vice Premier He Lifeng says China's economy continues to show an upward trend; growth potential of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries are being released, via Xinhua; The economy has shown great resilience and vitality

European bourses opened incrementally firmer and trudged higher throughout the morning - though more recently, some downside has been seen to display a mixed picture in Europe. European sectors opened without a clear bias, but have since moved to a strong positive direction. Basic Resources tops the pile, joined closely by Travel & Leisure and then Healthcare. Retail lags. US equity futures are flat/modestly firmer, following similar price action seen in Europe. Docket ahead is lacking in terms of Tier 1 data, but the focus will be on Fed speak from Musalem and Cook.

Top European News

• ECB's Rehn said a June rate cut is appropriate if backed by data, via Kathimerini.
• ECB's Stournaras said he sees a June rate cut and then a pause, via Kathimerini
• EU confirms it will soon delay bank trading rules by one year, according to Bloomberg.
• UK's OFGEM says from 1 July to 30 September 2025 price for energy for the typical household will go down by 7% to GBP 1,720/yr; this is 9% higher than the price cap set for the same period last year.

FX

• This week's downtrend for the USD has resumed. For today's session, the calendar is light in terms of tier 1 data but Fed's Goolsbee, Musalem, Schmid and Cook are all due on the speaker slate. DXY has just slipped below the bottom end of Thursday's 99.44-100.11 range.
• EUR is capitalising on the softer USD with EUR/USD back on a 1.13 handle. Today's detailed release of Q1 German GDP exceeded expectations but failed to engineer much in the way of additional support from the EUR given that the beat was attributed to front-loading ahead of expected tariff actions by the Trump admin. On the trade front, the FT has reported that US President Trump is pushing the EU to lower tariffs or face additional duties with US negotiators to tell Brussels they expect unilateral concessions. On the speaker front, ECB dove Stournaras has stated that he sees a June rate cut and then a pause, whilst Rehn has backed a June rate reduction, data permitting. The pair was little moved to the latest ECB Wage Tracker. EUR/USD currently around 1.1337.
• JPY is out-muscling the USD in the wake of hot Japanese core inflation data overnight. ING writes that "Excluding both fresh food and energy, core-core inflation rose to 3.0%, suggesting that underlying inflation will remain above the BoJ's target of 2.0%". On the trade front, Japan’s chief tariff negotiator Akazawa reiterated there is no change to the stance on requesting the elimination of US tariffs. However, he noted they aim to reach an agreement and plans to visit the US around May 30th for the fourth round of trade talks. USD/JPY currently sits within Thursday's 142.80-144.40 range.
• GBP stronger vs. the broadly weaker USD with Cable at its highest level since February 2022 - today's peak at 1.3491. Sentiment for the GBP has been underpinned by a strong showing for UK retail sales in April (M/M 1.2% vs. exp. 0.2%, prev. 0.1%). BoE's Pill is due to speak later in the session, however, he gave quite an extensive explanation over his dissent earlier in the week and therefore is unlikely to add much more that will be of use to markets.
• Antipodeans are both at the top of the G10 leaderboard alongside a pick-up in risk sentiment with newsflow otherwise light.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1919 vs exp. 7.2151 (Prev. 7.1903).

Fixed Income

• USTs are on a firmer footing, venturing as high as 110.03+ with the next target coming via Wednesday's peak at 110.10+. After a soft start to the week on account of the Moody's downgrade and concerns over the deficit impact of Trump's Tax/Spending Reconciliation bill, US paper is attempting to recover off the lows. Fresh US newsflow is relatively light after yesterday's passage of Trump's bill, which will now move to various Senate committees before being debated and voted on by the Senate floor. Today's Fed docket includes remarks from Goolsbee, Musalem, Schmid and Cook.
• German paper is on the front foot and tracking gains in global peers. Downticks from a better-than-expected outturn for German GDP proved to be fleeting with the beat attributed to front-loading ahead of expected tariff actions by the Trump admin. On the trade front, the FT has reported that US President Trump is pushing the EU to lower tariffs or face additional duties with US negotiators to tell Brussels they expect unilateral concessions. Note, USTR Greer and EU Trade Commissioner are set to meet in June. ECB speak and the latest ECB Wage Tracker today has had little impact on Bunds. Jun'25 Bund is currently sitting just above Thursday's best at 130.00 but down from its earlier session peak at 130.28.
• Gilts are higher despite a strong showing for UK retail sales in April (M/M 1.2% vs. exp. 0.2%, prev. 0.1%). BoE's Pill is due to speak later in the session, however, he gave quite an extensive explanation over his dissent earlier in the week and therefore is unlikely to add much more of note. After hitting a fresh MTD low on Thursday at 90.10, Gilts have ventured as high as 90.73.

Commodities

• Another subdued session for the crude complex despite the slide in the dollar and a revision higher in German Q1 GDP, with sentiment capped by Thursday's source reports that OPEC+ members are discussing whether to agree to another output hike of 411k BPD in July. In other news, the US-Iran nuclear talks will be going ahead today from 12:00 BST/ 07:00 EDT, although views heading into the meeting are rather pessimistic, with Iran suggesting any deal which includes zero enrichment will not go ahead. Most recently, the complex has lifted off worst levels but still resides in negative territory.
• Precious metals are mixed with the yellow metal underpinned by the softer dollar and ongoing tariff uncertainty. Spot gold gradually rebounded from yesterday's trough and returned to above the USD 3,300/oz level in APAC hours amid the cautious risk tone. Spot gold currently resides in a USD 3,287.07-3,334.46/oz range.
• Copper futures traded rangebound and were kept afloat alongside the mildly positive sentiment during the Asia-Pacific trade. 3M LME copper remains north of USD 9,500/t in a USD 9,502.80-9,598.95/t range.
• Russia's Arctic LNG 2 plant has shut down its first production train, according to Reuters sources.
• Japan's Steel Industry Head says Japan must urgently take trade measures against rising steel shipments from China.

Geopolitics

• Russian Foreign Minister says work on the memorandum leading to a ceasefire in Ukraine is at an advanced stage; will hold a second round of direct negotiations with Ukraine.
• Iran-US nuclear talks reportedly set to begin at 12:00 BST/07:00 EDT, according to IRNA.
• "Member of the Security Committee of the Iranian Parliament: The fifth round of negotiations will not reach a result", according to Al Arabiya.

US Event Calendar

• 5:00 am: Apr F Building Permits, est. 1412k, prior 1412k
• 10:00 am: Apr New Home Sales, est. 695k, prior 724k
• 10:00 am: Apr New Home Sales MoM, est. -4.01%, prior 7.4%

Central Banks :

• 8:30 am: Fed’s Goolsbee Appears on CNBC
• 9:35 am: Fed’s Musalem, Schmid Speak in Fireside Chat
• 12:00 pm: Fed’s Cook Gives Speech on Financial Stability

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After a heavy selloff on Wednesday, markets began to stabilise again over the last 24 hours, despite investors’ ongoing fears about the fiscal situation. In particular, long-end Treasury yields started to fall again, with the 30yr yield (-4.3bps) moving down to 5.05%, whilst the dollar index (+0.37%) also recovered. But even so, there were still several signs of concern, as the 30yr Treasury yield had moved as high as 5.15% on an intraday basis, and a similar pattern was being echoed globally. For example, Japan’s 30yr yield (+3.3bps) moved up to 3.18% yesterday, the highest since that maturity was first issued in 1999. And in the UK, the 30yr yield (+3.2bps) moved up to 5.55%, closing just shy of its highest level since 1998.

Those moves came as the US House of Representatives narrowly passed the tax bill yesterday, with an incredibly tight 215-214 margin in favour. As a reminder, that would extend the Trump tax cuts from his first term, which are currently due to expire at the end of this year, and it also includes a $4tn increase in the debt ceiling. However, there’s still some way to go before passage, as it also has to pass the Senate, which is expected to make changes to the bill. For instance, fiscal hawks in the Senate are unhappy about some of the measures, with Senator Rand Paul having said “I’m not voting to raise the debt ceiling $4 trillion to $5 trillion”, whilst Senator Ron Johnson has described the deficits from the House bill as “completely unacceptable”.

The Republicans have a slightly more comfortable margin in the Senate of 53-47, but they can still only afford to lose 4 votes, and both chambers of Congress need to pass the same version of the bill before it can become law. So any changes made by the Senate will have to be re-voted on by the House, where it already passed by just one vote. 

Treasury Secretary Bessent has previously set a goal of July 4 for the bill to be signed, and Trump said in a post that “it’s time for our friends in the United States Senate to get to work, and send this Bill to my desk AS SOON AS POSSIBLE! There is no time to waste.” Another effective deadline is the late summer anyway, as the CBO have estimated that the debt ceiling will become an issue around August-September again, so Congress would need to raise the limit by then to avoid default.

Despite the fiscal concerns, US equities were comparatively resilient, with the S&P 500 (-0.04%) stabilising after its sharp -1.61% decline on Tuesday. That said, there was a late slump, with the index down -0.6% in the final 30 minutes of trading, having been in positive territory for much of the session. And nearly two-thirds of the S&P 500’s constituents declined, with defensive sectors including utilities (-1.41%) and healthcare (-0.76%) underperforming. Moreover, it would have been a larger decline had it not been for the Magnificent 7 (+0.78%), which outperformed after three consecutive declines.

One factor helping US assets to stabilise was some stronger US economic data, which continued to point away from a recession. For instance, the flash composite PMI for May was up to 52.1, up from 50.6 in April, and above the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction. Moreover, the weekly initial jobless claims also remained in their recent range, coming in at 227k over the week ending May 17 (vs. 230k expected). So again, that showed no sign of a deterioration in the labour market, with the numbers still within their pre-Liberation Day range.

The rally also got a fresh boost from the decline in bond yields, with the 2yr Treasury yield (-2.8bps) falling back to 3.99%, whilst the 10yr yield (-7.0bps) fell back to 4.53%. In part, that followed comments from Fed Governor Waller, who suggested that if the tariffs were closer to 10% and that was done by July, then the Fed would be well placed “to kind of move with rate cuts through the second half of the year”.

In other Fed-related news, yesterday evening the US Supreme Court said that the Federal Reserve was an exception when it comes to the President’s ability to remove officials, referring to the Fed as a "uniquely structured, quasi-private entity" that was different to other independent agencies. So that offered a bit more certainty on the position of senior Fed officials, and whether Chair Powell might be removed before his term as Fed Chair ends in May 2026.

Back in Europe, the last 24 hours saw a much weaker performance, with the STOXX 600 (-0.64%) posting its biggest decline in over 6 weeks. That came amidst a disappointing set of economic data, with the flash PMIs narrowly falling into contractionary territory. For example, the Euro Area composite PMI was down to 49.5 in May (vs. 50.6 expected), which is the first sub-50 reading since December. So even though the data wasn’t showing an aggressive contraction, it added to the signs that the Euro Area economy had lost momentum since Liberation Day, leading to a bigger risk-off move. That was echoed in the country prints as well, with the composite PMIs in Germany (48.6), France (48.0) and the UK (49.4) also coming in below the 50 mark. Nevertheless, it wasn’t all bad news, and in Germany the Ifo’s business climate indicator rose to an 11-month high of 87.5 in May (vs. 87.3 expected).

That backdrop saw European equities lose ground across the board, whilst sovereign bond spreads also widened. So even as 10yr bund yields (-0.3bps) came down slightly, those on 10yr OATs (+1.0bps) and BTPs (+0.9bps) moved higher. So it also meant that the Italian 10yr spread over bunds moved back above 100bps, after recently falling below that mark for the first time since 2021.

Overnight in Asia, the mood has become more positive overnight given the recovery in US Treasuries. So that’s supported gains across the board, including for the Nikkei (+0.61%), the Hang Seng (+0.58%), the CSI 300 (+0.30%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.08%). The one exception to that is the KOSPI (-0.04%), which has posted a very modest decline. But looking forward, US and European equity futures are also in positive territory, with those on the DAX (+0.10%) and the S&P 500 (+0.05%) both slightly higher.

The other main news overnight has been the latest CPI print from Japan. It showed headline CPI remaining at +3.6% in April (vs. +3.5% expected). Moreover, the core measure of inflation (excluding fresh food) was up to +3.5% (vs. +3.4% expected), which was its fastest level since January 2023. The Japanese Yen has strengthened +0.42% against the US Dollar this morning, although much of that has been driven by dollar weakness, with the dollar index down -0.30% overnight.

Elsewhere, one asset that continued to outperform was Bitcoin, which moved up to another record high of $111,092 yesterday. On the theme of cryptocurrencies, Marion Laboure put out a note yesterday on the GENIUS Act, which would establish rules around stablecoins.  

To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK retail sales for April, French consumer confidence for May, and US new home sales for April. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Musalem, Schmid and Cook, and the ECB’s Lane.