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Authored by Ryan Morgan and Jan Jekielek via The Epoch Times,

As President Donald Trump continues negotiations to limit Iran’s nuclear aspirations, historian and Hoover Institution senior fellow Victor Davis Hanson believes the president is preparing his non-interventionist supporters for the possibility of a more forceful confrontation in the Middle East.

On the 2024 campaign trail, Trump frequently touted his record of avoiding new wars during his first term and emphasized his plans to quickly resolve ongoing conflicts, like the one in Ukraine. At the same time, Trump has described his foreign policy approach as one of “peace through strength,” and he has been willing to threaten military action to press his agenda.

In March, as the U.S. president began his push for a new deal restricting Iran’s nuclear program, he warned, “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing.”

In a recent interview with Jan Jekielek, host of EpochTV’s “American Thought Leaders,” Hanson described Trump as having to thread the needle with how he handles his next steps with Iran.

“The MAGA covenant he ran on said no optional Middle East wars, no foreign entanglements, and it’s always better to jawbone than to go to war,” he said.

While the Trump administration has joined successive rounds of indirect talks with Iranian representatives, Hanson assessed that Israeli leaders feel the current moment is a good window of opportunity to strike Iran.

Even if the negotiations don’t result in a deal, Hanson said Trump could use the opportunity to acclimate his base to the Israeli point of view.

“He’s saying to Israel, ‘Let’s just get six or seven months of negotiation ... We‘ll negotiate to the point where they have to shut up or put up. And if you’re right ... then we have a case to be made to our MAGA base.’”

Syria

Hanson assessed Bashar al-Assad’s fall from power in Syria as an important opportunity to further isolate Tehran and diminish its influence across the Middle East.

Assad fled the country in December, amid a surprise offensive led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, a Sunni Islamist faction that began as Al Qaeda’s Syrian offshoot, and which the U.S. government still considers a foreign terrorist organization.

After seizing Damascus, a rebel-led council named Ahmed al-Sharaa—the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham—as president of a new self-styled Syrian transitional government. The council has named other Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham members to top leadership positions in this transitional government.

Since taking power, Sharaa has tried to present himself as more of a moderate than his past would suggest. In turn, the United States has shown reduced hostility.

In President Joe Biden’s last weeks in office, his administration retracted a $10 million bounty against Sharaa, opening the way for then-Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf to meet with the ascendant Syrian warlord.

This month, Trump announced he would retract sanctions against Syria “to give them a chance at greatness.” Trump met with Sharaa during his Middle East tour last week and announced he was considering normalizing ties with Syria’s new leadership.

Trump also urged Sharaa to join the Abraham Accords, a framework for normalizing relations between Israel and its various Muslim neighbor states.

Despite Sharaa’s past, Hanson assessed Turkey, Israel, Syria’s Kurdish population, and the neighboring Arab states all prefer him to Assad, and indicated that Trump may feel the same.

“There may be terrorists, but they may be directed in other directions. I don’t know. But all of these interests felt that it was superior to the Assad regime. And most of the interests were pro-American,” he said.

OPEC+ is considering a third straight monthly output hike, departing from the norm of stabilizing oil markets. According to Bloomberg, the group of 12 major oil-exporting nations, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and others, is considering a July increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd)—roughly triple the previously planned amount. This would mirror supply increases in May and June. Such an increase in July could lead to a breakdown in Brent crude's $60-per-barrel price floor (as long as the war risk premium remains suppressed).

Brent fell to $63 a barrel, down about 1.7% following the news. West Texas Intermediate dropped to around $60 a barrel.

According to delegates, the increase would mark the third consecutive month of added supply, though they noted that no final agreement had been reached.

Bloomberg provided more color about the strategy at play with OPEC+ that would only increase concerns about a global glut: 

The strategy appears aimed at disciplining quota violators by pushing prices lower. But it will add to the overall picture of oversupply -- not only is there a chance of more Iranian barrels hitting the market, energy demand globally looks set to soften.

"We're seeing the market reacting to evidence that OPEC is letting go of a strategy to defend price in favour of market share," said Harry Tchiliguirian at Onyx Capital Group, adding, "It's a bit like taking off a Band-Aid; you do it in one fell swoop."

Department of Energy data released Wednesday morning showed that commercial crude inventories rose for a second consecutive week. Rising inventories and weakness in broader markets have added downward pressure on oil prices.

RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft noted that a 411,000 bpd increase in July is the "most likely outcome," mainly from Saudi Arabia. She said, "A key question will be whether the voluntary cut will be fully drawn down before the leaves turn brown in many parts of the world, in line with the original taper schedule." 

OPEC+ is considering another large output increase. However, the macroeconomic backdrop of rising U.S. 10-year Treasury yields may signal a warning: Rising yields reflect tightening financial conditions and slower growth expectations, raising concerns that higher oil supply could weigh on prices. Now, lower prices could be all but derailed if Israel launches a preemptive attack on Iran's nuclear sites with stealth fighters.

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The following paragraph, courtesy of Amazon, reviews the book Death of the Dollar by William Rickenbacker.

Death of the Dollar by William F. Rickenbacker is a critical examination of the economic policies and monetary mismanagement that the author argues are eroding the value of the U.S. dollar and threatening financial stability. Rickenbacker contends that the actions of money managers, including excessive government spending, inflationary policies, and the detachment of the dollar from the gold standard, are systematically devaluing the currency. The book warns of an impending monetary disaster, highlighting how these policies disproportionately harm everyday citizens who rely on the dollar’s stability for savings and investments. Through a blend of economic analysis and historical context, Rickenbacker underscores the dangers of unchecked financial intervention and the potential for a collapse of the dollar’s purchasing power.

Plenty of books, articles, and social media posts herald the same grim forecast as Rickenbacker. For the most part, they rely on similar reasoning. Essentially, lax monetary policy and gross fiscal spending, both deemed to be inflationary, will result in dollar devaluation and ultimately the death of the dollar.

The difference between Rickenbacker’s book and other dollar demise forecasts is that  Death of the Dollar was written in 1968! Fifty-seven years later, despite, or possibly because of Rickenbacker’s justifications, the dollar is still the world’s reserve currency, and no other sovereign currency, cryptocurrency, or precious metal will replace it anytime soon.

Given the topic’s importance and the gross misinformation spread about the dollar’s imminent demise, we review Rickenbacker’s thesis to highlight that today’s warnings have been around for decades and why the odds of them coming to fruition this time are very low, as they were decades ago.

Removal Of The Gold Standard

Rickenbacker’s book was published in 1968, three years before President Nixon closed the gold window, essentially making the dollar a fiat currency. While his book accurately predicted that ground-shaking event, it did not correctly anticipate its impact.

He reasoned that without gold regulating the supply of dollars, unchecked monetary policy would result in reckless “money printing.”

He was correct that the Fed would have more flexibility in managing the money supply. Furthermore, with this added power, we have seen reckless behavior, as he theorized. However, Rickenbacker erred on the money printing allegation.

The Fed doesn’t print money. All money is lent into creation by banks. The Fed prints bank reserves, which allow banks to make loans, i.e., print money, if they choose. More importantly, even if the money supply increases due to Fed incentives to lend, it’s unclear whether such activity is good or bad for the economy and how it impacts inflation and ultimately the dollar’s value. That is a function of the productivity of debt.

Simply, productive debt drives economic growth, increases the nation’s prosperity, and reduces deficits as a percentage of economic activity. Unproductive debt detracts from economic growth and prosperity and worsens deficits. Weaker growth from unproductive debt tends to be disinflationary.

As judged by an increasing debt-to-GDP ratio, aggregate debt has been unproductive, leading to lower inflation growth rates. Thus, if the concern is that “money printing” would lead to inflation, it may lead to disinflation.

Fed Flexibility

In one respect, Rickenbacker correctly said that giving the Fed more flexibility was a curse. Easy money policy has led to periods of gross speculation and crises, such as in 2008.

However, without the gold shackles, the Fed has incredible power to manage economic crises and avoid a currency collapse. In fact, despite the 2008 crisis having roots in the US mortgage market and the prospect of the collapse of the US banking system, the world flocked to dollars during the crisis, as shown below.  

Most crises have been accompanied by a stronger dollar, proving that the dollar is the port in the storm foreign investors seek when economic confidence is lacking, and liquidity is paramount.

Excessive Government Spending

The book criticizes massive federal expenditures, particularly on social programs and military efforts, which create budget deficits, drive up inflation, and ultimately devalue the dollar. The book was written while Lyndon Johnson spent heavily on the Vietnam War and domestic programs. Again, Rickenbacker was correct in worrying about inflation, a big problem throughout the 1970s.

Despite ever-increasing government spending and an increasing debt-to-GDP ratio, the globalization of trade has expanded rapidly since his book was published. With it, foreigners’ demand for dollars has been growing, and in mirror fashion, so is their need to invest the dollars, which helps us fund our deficits.

Even today, with “runaway” deficits making headlines daily, the dollar remains in the upper range of the last 35 years.

Dollar Devaluation In Context

Rickenbacker believed that easy money Federal Reserve policies, such as low interest rates and expanding the money supply, would fuel inflation that would erode the dollar’s purchasing power. He was right, as evidenced by comparing what a dollar buys today versus yesteryear. However, the argument provides little context.

For instance, in the 1950s, a hamburger (15 cents), fries (10 cents), and a Coke (10 cents) at McDonald’s cost less than 50 cents. Today, the same meal could run nearly $10.

Although decades of inflation have drastically eroded the dollar’s value, our standard of living has risen appreciably. To wit, the purchasing power of one dollar in 1947 has eroded to 7 cents. However, as shown below, inflation-adjusted incomes have risen fivefold since 1947. The dollar buys less, but our incomes buy more!

Trade and Balance of Payments Deficits

Rickenbacker points to persistent U.S. trade deficits and dollar outflows abroad, which weaken the currency’s global standing. He is correct that trade deficits have steadily increased, resulting in more dollars flowing abroad. However, more dollar outflows are a result of more demand for dollars. Furthermore, those dollars ultimately return to the US through investments and loans to the government and corporations. The larger the global economy, the greater the need for dollars, and the more dollars that need to be invested in the US economy.

Rickenbacker Was Right

The author’s concerns are valid and, in many cases, have proven true. However, the victim has not been the dollar. The victims are larger deficits, lower productivity growth, hollowing out of manufacturing, and a growing wealth divide, to name a few.

While these are big problems, they do not necessarily threaten the dollar’s status. As we wrote in Four Reasons The Dollar Is Here To Stay:

The pundits will be right someday. The dollar’s death as the reserve currency will come, and some other nation’s currency, cryptocurrency, gold, shells, or something else will take its place. However, that day is not coming anytime soon. The four reasons we describe in the article leave the world with no alternative.

While China is rapidly growing its economy and global trade footprint, it lacks the rule of law and liquid capital markets to sustain a global currency. It’s difficult to see how a communist country can overcome those challenges.

The Euro is the most viable competitor. They have the rule of law, but their capital markets are not nearly liquid enough to facilitate global trade. They also lack the military might to force the usage of the Euro. Let us also remember its finances are in equally bad or even worse shape than the U.S. There is no reason to suspect the euro could overtake the dollar.

Bitcoin? Forget about it! The government will never relinquish its control over the currency because, with that, they lose control of the nation.

Summary

Had Rickenbacker’s Death of the Dollar book solely focused on monetary and fiscal imprudence and its negative implications for the country, he would have been proven a seer. Unfortunately, he was wrong to insist that the dollar would lose its status as the world’s reserve currency.

The graph below, courtesy of the Federal Reserve, shows how the dollar’s usage in global transactions has been stable for the last two decades.

The index calculation, as detailed at the bottom of the graphic, is based on the primary uses of currencies.

US stocks and treasuries sold off after President Trump’s signature tax bill passed the House by the narrowest of margins (214-215), sparking fears that the surging deficit - already at a nosebleed 6.5% of GDP - necessary to fund the bill will spark even higher rates at a time when foreign buyers are boycotting US Treasury purchases. As of 8:00am, S&P futures slumped by 0.5%, trading near session lows and reversing an earlier gain of about 0.3%. Nasdaq futures dropped 0.4%. Treasuries also slumped, extending days of losses in which the 30-year yield hit the highest since 2023: the 10Y was trading at session highs of 4.62%. The dollar ended a three-day losing run while Bitcoin pushed further into record territory. Commodities are weaker across all 3 complexes: oil slumped again after BBG reported that OPEC+ is considering another production hike at the June 1 meeting. SCMP reports that Mexico pledges neutrality between US/China in the Trade War; this follows a similar announcement from Indonesia last month. Today’s macro data focus is on Flash PMIs, weekly claims, existing home sales, and regional Fed activity indicators.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks were mixed (Alphabet +1.2%, Nvidia +0.5%, Amazon +0.5%, Tesla -0.2%, Meta Platforms +0.3%, Microsoft +0.02%, Apple -0.1%). Solar stocks sink as US House Republicans’ new version of the tax and spending bill accelerates the end of incentives for clean electricity production (Sunrun -34%, Array Technologies -14%, First Solar -6%). Crypto-linked stocks gained in premarket trading after Bitcoin hit an all-time high. The world’s largest cryptocurrency reached a record price of $111,878 on Thursday amid growing optimism around the US stablecoin bill (Galaxy Digital (GLXY) +5%, Riot Platforms (RIOT) +3%, Mara Holdings (MARA) +3%). Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Advance Auto Parts (AAP) soars 30% after the retailer of aftermarket auto components reaffirmed its comparable sales forecast for the full year.
• Analog Devices (ADI) rises 2% after the chipmaker reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Delcath Systems (DCTH) rises 2% after the specialty pharmaceutical and medical devices company issued full year 2025 guidance and announced a plan to enter into a National Medicaid Drug Rebate Agreement to expand patient access.
• Nike (NKE) shares rose in premarket trading as the company returns to Amazon.com’s online store after leaving it in 2019.
• Humana (HUM) falls 5% and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) slips 2% after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services said it will embark on a “significant expansion” of its auditing efforts for Medicare Advantage plans.
• LiveRamp (RAMP) climbs 10% after the marketing technology company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations.
• Lumen Technologies (LUMN) advances 12% after AT&T agreed to buy the company’s consumer fiber operations for $5.75 billion, expanding its fast broadband service in major cities like Denver and Las Vegas.
• Manchester United (MANU) drops 5% after the English football club lost the high-stakes Europa League final to Tottenham Hotspur in Bilbao, Spain last night.
• Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) surges 175% after the semiconductor company said Nvidia picked it to collaborate on data center power infrastructure.
• Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) falls 4% after the oil and gas company priced its stock offering.
• Snowflake (SNOW) gains 9% after the software developer forecast product revenue for the second quarter above the average analyst estimate.
• Urban Outfitters (URBN) rises 18% after the apparel retailer reported net sales for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.

Just before 7am ET, after an all night session in the House, US lawmakers passed Trump's "big, beautiful bill", a sprawling multi-trillion dollar package that would avert a year-end tax increase at the expense of adding to the US debt burden. The move comes after a downgrade by Moody’s Ratings thrust concerns over the ballooning deficit into the spotlight. This has shown up in Treasuries, sapping sentiment after an equity rebound put the S&P 500 on the cusp of a bull market. Goldman calculated the yield at which stocks would crack: the bank notes that on May 1st, 10yr yield was 4.12%...we just touched 4.6% yesterday after the weak 20yr auction. At what level do yields start to put real pressure on the stock market? The easy big round number is 10yr @ 5%. The more nuanced answer is >4.7% (before the end of May) as velocity of move in rates matters much more than absolute levels (in regards to impacting stocks). When 10yr yield has moved higher by 2SD (60bps) within a one month period the stock market comes under pressure.

“Bond vigilantes are back,” Beata Manthey, a strategist at Citigroup Inc., told Bloomberg TV. “The market is worried about debt sustainability. It’s not very helpful, given how strong a rebound we’ve been seeing in equity markets.”

Later on Thursday, S&P Global will issue its preliminary May survey of manufacturing and service providers. Based on economists’ projections, industrial weakness probably continued while growth in services activity may have picked up slightly. Weekly jobless claims data is also due.

Meanwhile, the doom and gloom from Jamie Dimon continued, after the JPMorgan CEO said he can’t rule out the US economy will fall into stagflation as the country faces huge risks from both geopolitics, deficits and price pressures. “I don’t agree that we’re in a sweet spot,” Dimon told Bloomberg TV in Shanghai.

With everything else being sold, traders turned to non-fiat alternatives: Bitcoin surpassed $111,000 for the first time with traders increasingly bullish on the prospects of the cryptocurrency., gold traded back over $3,300.

“Bitcoin, and the crypto market in general, have largely decoupled from equities over the last few days,” said Richard Galvin, co-founder of hedge fund DACM. “Bitcoin continues to benefit from its market position as a non-system, store of value.”

European stocks fall as worries over rising bond yields curbed investor appetite for risky assets. The Estoxx index slumped 1%, with the yield-sensitive technology sector is among the biggest laggards. Among individual stocks, EasyJet Plc falls after the low-cost airline reported bigger-than-expected losses, while Johnson Matthey rises on a major sale of its technology business. Here are some of the biggest movers:

• Johnson Matthey shares jump as much as 34%, the most in over three years, after the company announced the sale of its catalyst technology business at an enterprise value of £1.8 billion, with the bulk of proceeds to be returned to shareholders.
• Mitchells & Butlers gains as much as 2.2% after the pub and restaurant operator delivers what analysts view as a strong update, with full-year operating profit expected to be at the top end of current consensus.
• Grenergy Renovables gains as much as 8%, hitting a new record high. RBC Capital says the Spanish renewables company has achieved strong growth in the first quarter, supported by gains of the Atacama storage project.
• Gimv gains as much as 8.9%, the most since March 2020, after the investment company posts what KBC Securities describes as another record year
• Stora Enso gains as much as 7% to its highest since March 20 after the Finnish forest and paper company said it will divest around 175,000 hectares of forest land in Sweden for a total value of €900 million.
• EasyJet shares fall as much as 6.1% after the travel firm reported a loss in the first half.
• BT shares drop as much as 5.3% after the telecom company reported a decline of 243,000 Openreach broadband lines in the quarter ended March, a sign of heightened competition among UK’s fiber builders.
• British Land shares drop as much as 7.1% in their worst one-day loss in two years, after the UK property firm’s unchanged guidance and forecast for flat 2026 earnings per share tempered a recent rally in the stock.
• Freenet shares sink as much as 16%, the most since May 2022, after the mobile communications service provider reported Ebitda for the first quarter that missed estimates.
• Elior drops as much as 5.3% following a mixed first-half report from the commercial catering company.
• Intertek shares drop as much as 3% after the inspection services provider reported disappointing organic growth for the first four months of the year.
• MPC Container Ships falls as much as 17%, the most since 2021, after the Norwegian shipping firm presented its latest earnings and a new dividend policy.

Asian equities dropped the most in two weeks, driven by losses in technology stocks after Treasury yields jumped overnight on concerns about the US budget deficit. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.8%, the biggest decline since May 8, with Alibaba, TSMC and Samsung contributing the most to the losses. South Korea’s Kospi retreated over 1%, while benchmark gauges in Hong Kong, Japan and India also lost ground. Philippine stocks weakened after President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. ordered his cabinet to resign.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rebounded to rise 0.1% after three straight days of losses. EUR/USD fell 0.2% to 1.131 after data showed private-sector activity in the euro area unexpectedly shrank in May. USD/JPY slumped as much as 0.6% to 142.81, the lowest level in two weeks, before paring the move to trade 0.2% lower. Despite the latest drop, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index remains on track to cap a sixth straight week of gains. JPMorgan Chase is committed to long-term investment in China, despite tensions with the US, Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said in a Bloomberg TV interview. 

In rates, the yield for 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.62% on Thursday. The worry in debt markets is that the tax bill would add trillions of dollars to an already bulging deficit at a time when investors’ appetite is US assets is slumping. The 30-year yield reaching new multimonth highs of 5.15% while short-end tenors richen, pivoting around a little-changed 7-year sector. 5s30s spread near 97bp is widest since May 1. European sovereign curves are also steeper.  The Treasury will sell $18 billion of 10-year TIPS in a reopening at 1pm New York; Wednesday’s 20-year new-issue auction tailed by about 1bp, spurring long-end yields higher. Focal points include House Republicans narrowly passing President Trump’s tax bill shortly before 7am, PMI and jobless claims data, a 10-year TIPS auction and comments by NY Fed President Williams.

Looking at today's calendar, US economic data includes April Chicago Fed national activity index and weekly jobless claims (8:30am), May preliminary S&P Global US PMIs (9:45am), April existing home sales (10am) and May Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Richmond Fed President Barkin (8am) and Williams (2pm).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.5%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.4%, 
• Stoxx Europe 600 -1%
• DAX -0.8%, CAC 40 -1%
• 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.58%
• VIX -0.4 points at 20.49
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.1% at 1220.46
• euro -0.3% at $1.1297
• WTI crude -1.5% at $60.66/barrel

Top Overnight News

• A man fatally shot two Israeli Embassy staff members late Wednesday near a Jewish museum in downtown Washington. WSJ
• Scott Bessent and his Japanese counterpart Katsunobu Kato confirmed existing currency views and didn’t discuss FX levels when they met in Canada. BBG
• On a call Monday, President Trump told European leaders that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the Ukraine war because he thinks he is winning. This runs counter to what Trump has often said publicly, that he believes Putin genuinely wants peace. WSJ
• BOJ board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday he saw no need for the central bank to intervene in the bond market to stem recent sharp rises in super-long yields, describing the moves as "rapid but not abnormal." Noguchi also said the central bank must pause its interest rate hikes for the time being until there is more clarity on the impact of U.S. tariffs on the economy. RTRS
• Israel is making preparations to “swiftly” strike Iran’s nuclear facilities if talks between Washington and Tehran collapse without a deal. Axios
• OPEC+ members are discussing whether to agree on another super-sized production increase at their meeting June 1, delegates said. That would be the third straight month of adding more barrels to the market. Oil declined. BBG
• Eurozone flash PMIs for May were mixed, with modest upside on manufacturing (49.4, up from 49 in Apr and above the Street’s 49.2 forecast) and slight downside on services (48.9, down from 50.1 in Apr and below the Street’s 50.5 forecast), while inflation in aggregate cooled (driven by manufacturing). S&P
• US/EU trade talks – Brussels is offering to extend an existing shellfish trade deal w/the US that expires on 7/31 as an inducement to striking a broader agreement around tariffs. FT
• Lutnick says he predicts a slew of trade deals by the middle of the summer and doesn’t anticipate tariffs fueling higher prices in the US. Axios
• BofA Institute Total Card Spending (Week to 17th May) -0.7% (vs +1.0% average in April)
• US President Trump posted "I am giving very serious consideration to bringing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public. I will be speaking with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, William Pulte, among others, and will be making a decision in the near future."

Trade/Tariffs

• EU is open to extending lobster deal as part of a package to remove tariffs imposed by US President Trump, according to FT.
• South African President Ramaphosa said following a meeting with US President Trump that they had discussions on trade and there will continue to be engagement on tariffs. It was also reported that South Africa's Trade Minister said they submitted a proposal regarding a framework agreement with the US and had some US feedback, while they then resubmitted a revised document with the proposal about a trade agreement.
• Canada's Minister of International Trade and Intergovernmental Affairs LeBlanc is to visit Washington DC to meet with Trump admin officials, while it was also reported that Canada's Finance Minister Champagne said he will discuss Canada's role as the largest customer for US exports in meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessent.
• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said he told Bessent that US tariffs are regrettable and stated tariffs are not an appropriate means to correct macroeconomic imbalances that are behind trade imbalances, while Kato noted that he did not directly discuss Japan's US Treasury holdings in the meeting with Bessent.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Kato discussed global security and bilateral trade and currency issues on the sidelines of the G7, while they reaffirmed shared belief that exchange rates should be market-determined and reaffirmed USD/JPY exchange rate currently reflects fundamentals.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were on the back foot following the sell-off on Wall St where stocks, treasuries and the dollar were pressured amid deficit concerns and a weak 20-year auction. ASX 200 retreated with energy and tech front-running the declines, although continued strength in gold producers atoned for some of the losses. Nikkei 225 gapped beneath the 37,000 level amid a firmer currency and proceeded in a somewhat choppy fashion as participants also digested data releases, including a surprise surge in Japanese Machinery Orders and mixed PMI figures. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat sentiment in the absence of any fresh bullish catalysts and after recent earnings results failed to inspire, while the mainland initially showed resilience in early trade before succumbing to the broad risk-off mood.

Top Asian News

• PBoC to sell CNY 500bln of one year medium term lending facility loans on Friday.
• RBA's Hauser, on recent trip to China, says found confidence Beijing would do what was needed to sustain growth; Australian exporters upbeat about resilience of China demand Found striking confidence that China going into trade war with strong hand. China organisations expected large share of economic costs of tariffs would fall on US. China contacts expressed a determination not to cushion those costs. Found little expectation that yuan would be devalued to insulate US from tariffs. Possible could see more intense competition at home from Chinese firms discounting. Unclear how big an impact given limited overlap between Chinese and Australian output.
• BoJ's Noguchi says they do not look at the size of JGB buying from the standpoint of monetary policy. In tapering, market predictability and flexibility is the most important. Does not think it is appropriate to recklessly intervene to correct bond yield moves. Should not move on rates when there is a lack of clarity on economic outlook.
• Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa held unofficial phone talks with US Treasury Secretary Bessent before Wednesday, according to TV Tokyo; Bessent reportedly expressed reluctance to meet Akazawa this week; the two will meet next week instead.
• China's MOFCOM says China firmly opposes US export controls on Chinese AI chips.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.7%) opened lower across the board, in a continuation of the pressure seen on Wall St/APAC trade and have traded at subdued levels throughout the morning. European sectors hold a strong negative bias, with only Basic Resources and Chemicals marginally holding in positive territory. Consumer Products is underperforming after LVMH’s (-1.5%) cautious comments on the Luxury sector. Chemicals names are faring better vs peers, with Bayer (+1.7%) doing much of the heavy lifting. The Co. benefits from a WSJ report which suggests the US HHS Secretary's move will “go easier than expected on pesticides in farming”.

Top European News

• ECB's Nagel sees progress on the US tariff dispute but more hurdles to overcome and noted the US was showing a better understanding of Europe's point of view, while he is a little more confident than perhaps was a few days ago. Nagel stated that German economic growth in Q1 could surprise on the upside but will get worse in Q2 and could see 1% plus growth in 2026.
• ECB's Vujcic says "Euro area growth is positive but low; inflation is slowly converging to 2% target; expect to get close to 2% target at end-2025" Expect to reach 2% target in early 2026.
• IMF forecasts French growth of 0.6% in 2025 and 1% in 2026; says France needs fiscal effort of 1.1% of GDP in 2026, followed by an average of about 0.9% over the medium term; Says France needs credible and well-designed package of measures to rein in deficit over time.
• EU Parliament backs very high tariffs on nitrogen-based fertilisers and farm produce from Russia and Belarus.

Eurozone PMIs

• EU HCOB Composite Flash PMI (May) 49.5 vs. Exp. 50.7 (Prev. 50.4); HCOB Services Flash PMI (May) 48.9 vs. Exp. 50.3 (Prev. 50.1); HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (May) 49.4 vs. Exp. 49.3 (Prev. 49.0)
• French HCOB Composite Flash PMI (May) 48.0 vs. Exp. 48.0 (Prev. 47.8); HCOB Services Flash PMI (May) 47.4 vs. Exp. 47.5 (Prev. 47.3); HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (May) 49.5 vs. Exp. 48.9 (Prev. 48.7)
• German HCOB Composite Flash PMI (May) 48.6 vs. Exp. 50.4 (Prev. 50.1); HCOB Services Flash PMI (May) 47.2 vs. Exp. 49.5 (Prev. 49.0); HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (May) 48.8 vs. Exp. 48.9 (Prev. 48.4)
• UK Flash Composite PMI (May) 49.4 vs. Exp. 49.3 (Prev. 48.5); Flash Services PMI (May) 50.2 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 49.0); Flash Manufacturing PMI (May) 45.1 vs. Exp. 46.0 (Prev. 45.4)

FX

• USD is currently relatively steady and mixed vs. peers following three consecutive sessions of losses. With trade updates lacking, focus is currently on the fiscal front as markets await the outcome of the House vote on President Trump's tax bill. If the bill passes this hurdle, attention from an FX perspective will be on how back-end US rates react to the price tag and impact on the deficit. This week's data highlights are presented today via weekly claims and flash PMI metrics. The latter will likely carry greater sway as markets look for evidence on how the trade war is impacting US business. Fed speaker's today include Williams and Barkin.
• The rally in the EUR has paused for breath. This morning's macro focus has been on EZ PMI metrics which have painted a picture of a stabilising manufacturing sector but a slowdown in the services industry. The trade war is clearly acting as a cloud over the Eurozone economy; note, yesterday Bloomberg reported that the EU is preparing a trade proposal for the US to steer momentum into talks. Today's docket sees the ECB's account of the April meeting. Currently trading around the 1.13 mark.
• JPY is top of the G10 leaderboard alongside the soft risk sentiment and as markets digest comments from Japanese Finance Minister Kato and BoJ board member Noguchi. On the former, Kato noted that he agreed with US Treasury Secretary Bessent that FX rates should be set by markets and they did not directly discuss Japan's US Treasury holdings. Elsewhere, BoJ's Noguchi, in response to recent moves in Japanese yields, said that he does not think it is appropriate to recklessly intervene to correct bond yield moves.
• GBP is a touch firmer vs. the USD and extending its winning run for a fourth consecutive session. The latest round of PMI metrics from the UK saw the services component beat expectations and return to expansionary territory, manufacturing missed but ultimately, the composite rose and just about beat the consensus. Looking ahead, today's speaker slate sees a trio of MPC members with Breeden, Dhingra & Pill all due on deck. Cable is currently contained within Wednesday's 1.3380-1.3468 range.
• Mildly diverging fortunes for the Antipodes with AUD outperforming NZD as the AUD/NZD cross looks to close the post-RBA gap lower. Incremental newsflow for both has been lacking as the New Zealand Budget and forecasts garnered little fanfare and comments from RBA's Hauser proved to be non-incremental.

Fixed Income

• USTs are a little firmer, attempting to recover following the hefty losses seen in the prior session following a weak US 20yr auction. Focus firmly is on the fiscal front. Overnight, the House Rules Committee passed President Trump’s tax/spending bill. Thereafter, the broader floor voted to open debate on the tax bill, a debate process that lasts for around two hours (started approx. 08:00BST) and is followed by a vote on the bill. Progress on the bill is bearish for USTs as it will increase the US’ debt level, a figure which has been increasing and was the driver behind the Moody’s downgrade last week. USTs currently trading around 109-19.
• Bunds started the day in the red but currently at the upper-end of a 129.49-91 band. Bunds have been gradually making their way off lows throughout the morning, edging higher slowly into the day’s data points which have featured generally weak Flash PMIs, with the expectation of Manufacturing where tariff-mitigation measures appear to have provided some support. No real reaction to the German Ifo figures at the same time. Ahead, ECB Minutes though as usual these will be deemed stale; focus will be on ECB's de Guindos, Elderson and Escriva throughout the day.
• Gilts are softer, trading slightly weaker than EGBs throughout the morning as has been the case at several points over the last few weeks but with today’s underperformance likely a function of Gilts reacting to Wednesday’s US auction and borrowing data this morning. PSNB data this morning came in well above expectations and the prior, though that was subject to a downward revision, in another unwelcome series for Chancellor Reeves after the hotter-than-expected inflation print earlier this week. Given all this, Gilts opened lower by 18 ticks and then slipped another 13 to a 90.29 trough in short order.
• Swedish Debt Office sees the 2025 deficit at SEK 93bln (Nov. forecast 65bln), nominal bond volume SEK 118bln (Nov. forecast 100bln); "new plan also contains an additional foreign currency bond for this year".
• Spain sells EUR 6.2bln vs exp. EUR 5.5-6.5bln 5.15% 2028, 3.10% 2031 & 1.00% 2042 Bonds.
• France sells EUR 12.497bln vs exp. EUR 10.5-12.5bln 2.40% 2028, 2.70% 2031, 0.00% 2032 OATs.

Commodities

• Crude futures were pressured overnight by the downbeat mood across markets and following bearish inventory data. Renewed pressure was seen during the European morning amid source reports that OPEC+ members are reportedly discussing whether to agree to another output hike of 411k BPD in July, via Bloomberg citing sources, although no agreement has been reached yet. WTI resides in a USD 60.37-61.75/bbl range while its Brent counterpart trades in a USD 63.67-65.03/bbl parameter.
• Overall, there is mixed trade across precious metals with hefty underperformance in spot palladium as it tracks the downbeat sentiment across the auto sector. Spot gold trades flat now and currently resides in a current USD 3,311.08-3,345.47/oz range.
• Base metals are mostly lower amid the broader downbeat risk profile, whilst Flash PMIs from Europe this morning were mixed but the commentary was mostly downbeat. 3M LME copper resides closer to the bottom end of a USD 9,495.65-9,579.20/t range at the time of writing.
• UK urged lowering price cap on Russian oil at the G7 meeting, according to Bloomberg.
• OPEC+ members are reportedly discussing on whether to agree to another output hike of 411k BPD in July, via Bloomberg citing sources; one of the options being discussed, no agreement has been reached yet.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Iranian Foreign Minister says "We have a better understanding in many areas, but in some, especially enrichment, differences still remain. I think we cannot reach an agreement until this issue is resolved.", via Iran Nuances
• Israel is preparing to carry out a swift attack on Iran's nuclear facilities if nuclear talks between the US and Iran fail, via Walla citing sources.
• Israeli military said it identified and intercepted a missile launched from Yemen towards Israel.
• Two Israeli embassy employees were killed in a shooting near a Jewish museum in Washington DC, while the Washington DC police chief announced the suspect was detained by event security and had chanted "Free Palestine" while in custody.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Moscow Mayor says Russian has downed two drones en route to Moscow
• US President Trump told European leaders in private that Russian President Putin isn't ready to end the war, according to WSJ.

Geopolitics: Other

• North Korea said it will convene the ruling party central committee meeting in late June and North Korean leader Kim watched the launch of a 5000-ton destroyer, while an accident occurred during the launch of the North Korean warship. Furthermore, Kim said the accident was unacceptable and was the result of negligence and irresponsibility.
• Indian PM Modi says Pakistan will not get water, to which India has a right.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Apr Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.25, prior -0.03
• 8:30 am: May 17 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 230k, prior 229k
• 8:30 am: May 10 Continuing Claims, est. 1881.62k, prior 1881k
• 9:45 am: May P S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, est. 49.85, prior 50.2
• 9:45 am: May P S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, est. 51, prior 50.8
• 9:45 am: May P S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, est. 50.3, prior 50.6
• 10:00 am: Apr Existing Home Sales, est. 4.1m, prior 4.02m
• 10:00 am: Apr Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 1.99%, prior -5.9%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Holland where I’ve just been told I’m now a BA Gold Card holder for life after my latest trip tipped me over the landmark. Annoyingly in my first 10 plus years of my career I didn’t collect tier points as I couldn’t be bothered to fill in the forms. So what could have been. I’ll make sure that on my way back home today I’ll have a celebratory decaf latte in the lounge.

If you collected air miles for issuing government debt then many DM countries would have been in the first class lounge many years ago and over the last 24 hours concerns have continued to mount about debt sustainability. We should put it into some perspective as sensible people have been worried about debt sustainability for years. Indeed if you'd have told anyone 10-20 years ago that the US could comfortably fund 7% mid-cycle deficits in recent years then most would have been incredulous at the prospect. So we could have sustainability fears for years to come before an inevitable accident or event happens. However it's fair to say that events in 2025 have brought forward any day of reckoning.

Yesterday saw the 30yr Treasury yield (+12.3bps to 5.09%) close above 5% for the first time since October 2023, and only 2bps away from its highest level since 2007. Even during the inflation peak at 9.1% in 2022, 30 year US yields didn't climb above 4.40% that year. The only time they've been briefly above 5% since 2007 was at the peak of the Treasury sell off in autumn 2023, when yields rose by over 100bps in under three months following an increase in the supply of long-dated bonds and delay of Fed rate cut expectations. It took a change in issuance duration from the Treasury to calm the long-end.

While Treasury yields were already trading around 5bps higher midway through yesterday’s session, they took another major step higher after a soft 20yr auction, which saw $16bn of bonds issued at 5.05%, +1.2bps above the pre-sale yield. This ended a pattern seen in the previous two sessions of an early Treasury sell-off reversing during US trading hours. Real yields led the move higher, with 30yr real yields rising +11.2bps to 2.78%, their highest level since 2008. Elsewhere along the curve, the 10yr yield (+11.2bps) rose to 4.60% and even the front-end wasn’t immune to the selloff, as the 2yr yield (+4.7bps) also moved back up to 4.02%. And in a repeat of concerns over US ability to attract foreign investors to fund its twin deficits, the rise in yields came while the dollar index (-0.56%) lost ground for a third session running. This morning US Treasuries are quieter, trading 1-2bps lower across the curve.

The soft 20yr auction was also a trigger for a broader market slump, with the S&P 500 falling from -0.2% on the day to -1.61% by the close, its worst day in the past month. This was a very broad-based decline with only 18 advancers in the whole index and the equal-weighted version of the S&P down -2.15%. The Mag-7 (-1.03%) saw a relative outperformance, mostly thanks to a +2.79% advance for Alphabet. Over in Europe, markets had closed before the US sell-off, with the STOXX 600 (-0.04%) little changed, while Germany’s DAX (+0.36%) reached another record high that took its YTD gains to +21.16%. European futures are around two-thirds of a percent lower as I type.

All those moves came amid an increased focus on the fiscal implication of the US tax bill going through the House of Representatives, which includes tax cuts that would increase the deficit over the years ahead. Initially, it had looked as though we might get a vote on the bill yesterday, which Speaker Johnson said he was planning on. But the chances diminished as the day went on, as various Republican members were still signalling their opposition. As a reminder, they only have a 220-212 margin in the House, so it only requires a handful of votes against (along with the Democrats) to vote down any bill.

In terms of the latest on the budget bill, some of the main issues appeared to be overcome yesterday with the House Republican leadership releasing an revised version late last night US time. That included raising the proposed state and local tax (SALT) deduction up to $40,000, from $10,000 at present, as several Republicans from higher-tax states had threatened to vote against a bill that didn’t see a big enough increase in the SALT limit. And to placate fiscal conservatives, the updated bill would speed up the implementation of Medicaid work requirements and a reduction in Biden-era clean energy tax breaks. As I write this, it still remains to be seen if the revised bill will pass the House, though reporting last night suggested that Trump and Speaker Johnson had assuaged the opposition from the right-wing House Freedom Caucus.

Turning to the global moves, the bond selloff also wasn’t helped by an upside surprise in the UK CPI print. That showed headline CPI rising more than expected to +3.5% in April (vs. +3.3% expected), whilst core inflation also rose to +3.8% (vs. +3.6% expected). In absolute terms, it was also the fastest headline inflation rate since January 2024, so that led investors to dial back their expectations for rate cuts from the Bank of England. For example, the amount of cuts priced by December came down -3.2bps on the day to 38bps. And in turn, gilts underperformed their counterparts elsewhere, with the 10yr yield up +5.4bps to 4.76%. But sovereign bonds also sold off across Europe, with yields on 10yr bunds (+3.9ps), OATs (+4.9bps) and BTPs (+4.0bps) all moving higher.

In trade news, Bloomberg reported yesterday that the EU has shared a revised trade proposal with Washington, which includes steps such as gradually reducing tariffs to zero on non-sensitive agricultural products and industrial goods, as it aims to build new momentum for transatlantic talks.

Looking forward, the main highlight today will be the flash PMIs for May from around the world. Those will be interesting, as they’re one of the first indications we have for how the global economy has performed this month, particularly given not all of the Liberation Day impact would have been immediately clear in April. Overnight, we’ve already had the numbers from Japan and Australia. Data showed that Australia's manufacturing sector has maintained its expansion for the fifth consecutive month, with the S&P Global manufacturing PMI holding steady at 51.7 in May. The services PMI decreased to 50.5 from 51.0 previously, while the composite fell to 50.6 in May from 51.0 in the prior month.

Japan's manufacturing sector continued its decline in May, marking the 11th consecutive month below 50, coming in at 49.0 in May, showing a slight improvement from the previous month's level of 48.7. On a more positive note, services remained in expansion at 50.8 in May, although it slowed from April's 52.4. The composite declined to 49.8 in May from 51.2 in April.

Asian equity markets are following on from Wall Street's late decline. The KOSPI (-1.16%) is leading the way, primarily due to losses in technology stocks. It is followed by the Nikkei (-1.12%), Hang Seng (-0.55%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.54%). Mainland Chinese markets are relatively flat amid increasing optimism that Beijing will introduce additional stimulus measures to bolster the economy.

Meanwhile Bitcoin is fast approaching $112,000 and trading at a new record as hopes increase that Stablecoin regulation will soon pass after the advancement of legislation yesterday. The US debt instability has probably helped too.
To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the flash PMIs from Europe and the US. Otherwise, we’ll get the US weekly initial jobless claims and existing home sales for April, whilst in Germany there’s the Ifo’s business climate indicator for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Holzmann, Vujcic, Nagel, Elderson and Escriva, the Fed’s Barkin and Williams, and the BoE’s Breeden, Dhingra and Pill. We’ll also get the ECB’s account of their April meeting.

Today, May 22, is a special day for cryptocurrencies.

It's Bitcoin Pizza Day... and the cryptocurrency is making new record highs...

Fifteen years ago, programmer Laszlo Hanyecz made the first documented purchase of goods using Bitcoin, paying 10,000 BTC for two Papa John’s pizzas.

Today, that same order is worth over $1.1 billion - almost the same as the entire market cap of Papa John's!!

It's bitcoin pizza day: the 10,000 bitcoin spent on 2 Papa John's pizzas in 2010 by Laszlo Hanyecz is now worth $1.1 billion, just shy of Papa John's market cap of $1.3 billion

“What was once considered a highly speculative risk has evolved into a serious asset class,” said Ulli Spankowski, chief digital officer at Boerse Stuttgart Group.

As CoinDesk reports, Hanyecz has long shrugged off the missed fortune” tag, telling CBS in 2019 that the transaction made bitcoin “real” to him.

He mined the coins back when BTC was under a penny, and few could have predicted the multi-trillion-dollar asset it would become.

And as the world celebrates, bitcoin rallied up near $112,000 overnight - a new record high...

Source: Bloomberg

With flows into BTC ETFs resurgent in recent weeks...

Source: Bloomberg

And that move has pushed the largest cryptocurrency's market cap above that of Amazon...

Source: companiesmarketcap.com,

Market data shows that Bitcoin had a market cap of $2.205 trillion at the time of writing, $70 billion more than the $2.135 trillion Amazon valuation.

“By surpassing Amazon in terms of capitalization, Bitcoin has attracted even more attention from the non-crypto audience,” said Alex Obchakevich, founder of Obchakevich Research. 

Obchakevich said the latest rally “will strengthen confidence in Bitcoin and lead to new injections into the crypto market.”

The surge came as Bitcoin set a new all-time high and traded up near $112,000, which Obchavich said will “attract new investors to large funds.”

Obchakevich noted that institutional players continue to expand their role in the digital asset space:

“In May, BlackRock became the second largest bitcoin holder after Satoshi Nakamoto, surpassing Binance in this indicator.”

Hassan Khan, the CEO of Bitcoin liquidity platform Ordeez, told Cointelegraph that “this is a structural change.” 

He explained that “Bitcoin is no longer simply a hedge, it’s in the process of becoming a benchmark currency.”

According to CoinMarketCap data, the total cryptocurrency market cap stood at $3.49 trillion at the time of writing. While high, this is still nearly 6% lower than the all-time high of $3.71 trillion reported at the end of 2024.

Analysts say bitcoin’s latest upward momentum is primarily driven by institutional factors, such as large capital inflows into spot ETFs and continued fundraising by publicly traded firms like Strategy to invest in bitcoin.

"Today's demand is driven by institutional-grade infrastructure and stronger regulatory clarity," said Caroline Bowler, CEO at BTC Markets.

"Investor sentiment has shifted decisively, reflecting institutional-style allocations."

But, global liquidity is rising...

...and for now, it's gold and bitcoin that is the 'outlet'... and as Standard Chartered's Geoff Kenrick pointed out recently, global sovereigns are 'quietly' buying bitcoin (as he projects the cryptocurrency reaches $500k by the end of Trump's term in office)

The U.S. is one of the highest-paying countries globally, but the average earnings differ significantly between industries.

This infographic, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, ranks average annual salaries across major U.S. industries using data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as of March 2025. The data covers private industries, and annual salary figures are estimated by multiplying average weekly earnings by 52.

Which Industries Pay the Most?

The average annual salary across all U.S. industries (ex. government employees) is around $64,000. In the utilities sector, the highest-paying industry, the average employee makes nearly $114,000 annually.

Here’s a look at the highest and lowest-paying industries in America:

The BLS updates earnings data on a monthly basis. The above figures are based on data from the March 2025 release.

The utilities sector includes occupations related to electric power generation, including wind turbine technicians and solar photovoltaic installers—the two fastest-growing jobs of the next decade.

The information industry, which includes all types of software and computer-related jobs, ranks second with nearly $100,000 in average annual earnings. It’s also among the most profitable industries for companies in America.

Mining/logging and financial activities have nearly equivalent average pay of just over $92,000 per year. Other well-paying industries include professional services, construction, wholesale trade, and manufacturing—each paying more than the $64,000 average across all industries.

On the other end of the wage spectrum, the leisure and hospitality sector has the lowest average salary of around $30,000 per year. The retail trade industry, the second-biggest by number of employees, is also among the lowest-paying with around $39,000 in average annual salary.

Which Industries Are Adding the Most Jobs?

Over the 12 months ended April 2025, the private education and health services industry added 894,000 jobs, with about 70% of these additions being in the healthcare segment.

The leisure and hospitality sector followed with 225,000 new jobs, followed by transportation and warehousing (151,000) and construction (143,000).

Employment in the public sector also increased by 322,000 employees, although the Federal government shed 6,000 jobs.

If you enjoyed this infographic, check out The Biggest Industries of 2040, on the Voronoi app.

Authored by Chris Morrison via DailyScpetic.org,

Over the last few days the UK has experienced balmy spring weather with temperatures often settling in the low 20s Celsius. The Met Office has been out in force colouring the maps orange and declaring ‘extreme’ highs all over the green and pleasant land. Or more accurately, a remarkably few chosen spots across the g&p land. Net Zero promotion demands ever higher temperature recordings so only unnaturally heat-ravaged sites provide most of the daily records. I looked at the last nine days of Met Office records to Sunday May 18th and can reveal that nearly nine out of 10 local ‘extreme’ daily temperature highs were posted in junk Class 4 and super junk Class 5 sites with internationally-recognised ‘uncertainties’ of 2°C and 5°C respectively.

Certain locations crop up constantly in the records. In nine days the Scottish sites at Aboyne and Tyndrum recorded area highs eight and seven times respectively. In England, Coton-in-the-Elms recorded seven daily highs while Kielder Castle posted six. Of course the recording of highs in these corrupted sites didn’t mean the air temperature was representative of the wider surrounding area. It just meant that the sites were poorly located next to unnatural heat sources and were producing a false natural air record, recently re-badged by the Met Office as a so-called ‘extreme” high. Until the Met Office sorts out its largely junk-class 380-plus weather station network, these records and recordings are largely meaningless.

Every day the Met Office posts a daily high temperature for 16 locations around the UK. In the nine consecutive days under review, I initially found that 83.8% of the highs were recorded in Class 4 and 5 sites rated by the World Meteorological Organisation to have the large ‘uncertainties’ up to 5°C. No less than 36.6% of records came from Class 5 sites that have no qualifying criteria for accuracy and can be located anywhere. Quite how any Class 4 and 5 site can be used to calculate a national let alone a global temperature has long been a mystery, and their central use to promote the Net Zero fantasy is a scientific and political scandal. But I looked further into the claimed records and found the overall picture was even worse than it first appeared.

The above picture from Google Earth shows the location of the Kirkwall weather station marked in red. It is claimed to be a Class 2 site, a pristine rating with no ‘uncertainties’. The Met Office has very few of these Class 2 rated sites, with 78% of its stations to be found in the bottom two junk categories. But there is no way this is a Class 2 site. It is located at Kirkwall airport, barely 50 metres from what appears to be the aircraft park. Nearby buildings, car parks and roads provide ample opportunities for heat corruptions. Yet six times in the last nine days Kirkwall was said to hold the temperature record for Orkney and Shetland. I removed the supposedly ‘non-junk’ Kirkwall from the overall calculation with the result that no less than 87.4% of daily highs are in the junk classes.

Of course it beggars belief that on a large island comprising four different nations and wide variations in geographical locations the same old suspects keep recording the hottest daily temperatures. Was nowhere warmer for seven days in the East Midlands than Coton-in-the-Elms? What is so special about Kielder Castle that on six days it was hotter than everywhere else in North-East England? Should heat lovers in Northern Ireland and Wales move to Castlederg and Porthmadog respectively where they would have enjoyed five days of record highs? Scotland is often on the chilly side, so can we assume that house prices have a premium in Tyndrum, where in the nine days under review it only twice lost the highest temperature spot in the Central, Tayside and Fife region?

Earlier this month, citizen super sleuth Ray Sanders examined the central England Class 5 weather station at Coton-in-the-Elms and concluded: “There are worse sites … but not that many.”

Late last year, Science Feedback ‘fact checked’ articles published by both the Daily Sceptic and Ray Sanders detailing the junk status of most of the Met Office sites and its invention of temperature data from over 100 non-existent sites. Written largely by the Met Office, the ‘fact check’ suggested that stations rated internally as ‘Unsatisfactory’ did not meet the required standards for data validity, and recordings would not be used in the official records. A recent Freedom of Information request revealed that just 27 sites had been placed on the meteorological naughty step. As they used to say in the Wild West days of the City of London, self-regulation. like self-abuse, leads to exceedingly short sight. Nevertheless if the Met Office, marking its own homework, says the 27 sites are rubbish, who are we to argue?

It is therefore a surprise to see that Castlederg is on the  ‘Unsatisfactory’ list and, as noted above, it produced a recent local record five days out of nine. It is possible the list has been updated in the last few months and Castlederg has been removed. It would be interesting to discover if it was on the list on July 21st 2021, when a Northern Ireland record temperature of 31.3°C was declared at the site. Other unsatisfactory sites quoted in the last few days include Redesdale Camp and Hawarden, the latter being a Class 4 airport location that holds the national temperature record for Wales set on July 21st 2021.

Why is all this relevant and important?

As we have shown many times at the Daily Sceptic, this super-heated data is fed into the mainstream to promote the political needs of Net Zero. 

Just one example out of many saw Justin Rowlatt from the BBC reporting last July that climate change is dramatically increasing the frequency of “extreme” high temperatures in the UK, “new Met Office analysis has confirmed”. Rowlatt also observed that there had been a 40% increase in the number of “pleasant” days, defined as around 20°C. “These changes may sound positive,” wails the BBC activist-in-chief, “but the UK’s shifting climate represents a dangerous upheaval for our ecosystems as well as our infrastructure.”

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