Russia, China, and India working together can make multipolarity a reality, Min Aung Hlaing has said

The world should not be controlled by a single power, Myanmar Prime Minister Min Aung Hlaing has said in an exclusive interview with RT. A multipolar system is the best approach to avoid conflict, he believes.

In the interview aired on Saturday, the prime minister stressed that developing countries such as Myanmar have especially suffered “under a unipolar system.”

“That is why transitioning to a multipolar world works best for us. It is better to share global resources, to act fairly, to distribute things more evenly. Conflicts arise from inequality, so if we want to avoid conflicts, I believe a multipolar system is the best approach,” he said.

“The US and Western bloc controlled the world through unipolarity. Then it became bipolar, and from bipolarity it returned to unipolarity. This made the West stronger,” Hlaing said.

However, “in this era, Russia, China and India have made tremendous progress militarily, economically and scientifically,” the prime minister noted. “As they have advanced, we have moved towards multipolarity and that is how it should be. No single power should control the world,” he said.

If Moscow, Beijing and New Delhi, which are “three equally important global powers,” collaborate and “act in unison, multipolarity will become a global reality. No one will accept this unipolarity anymore,” the Myanmar leader emphasized.

In order to succeed in the multipolar world, smaller countries “must try to cooperate” with Russia, China, and India, he said. “Making that attempt is absolutely worthwhile. We need to develop our own economic capabilities, while simultaneously increasing cooperation with each other,” he added.

Hlaing was among the high-ranking foreign guests who visited Moscow for the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany on May 9.

Earlier this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that relations between Moscow and Naypyidaw have been developing steadily and had “good potential.” In 2024 alone, trade turnover between the two nations increased by 40%, he noted. Putin also expressed gratitude to the leadership of Myanmar for facilitating Russia’s cooperation with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

The US-led bloc reportedly wants Berlin to have a much larger army

NATO is urging Germany to significantly expand its military forces, Die Welt revealed on Saturday, citing sources. Officials in Berlin reportedly believe that the country, which is burdened by high dropout rates, will struggle to meet the proposed targets.

As NATO members are poised to convene for the July summit in The Hague, discussions about increasing national defense spending to 5% of GDP – a target the US reportedly insists on – and expanding troop numbers are expected to loom large on the agenda.

Germany, for its part, is facing “particular challenges,” including a proposal to increase the Bundeswehr’s personnel to between 240,000 and 260,000 soldiers by 2030, an increase of up to 80,000 troops from current levels of around 183,000, according to Welt.

Difficulties with ballooning the military are exacerbated by high dropout rates among new recruits, with up to 30% leaving within the first six months, the paper says. Other factors contributing to attrition include harsh training, distant postings, and limited career prospects, as many potential soldiers view the private sector as a much more attractive option. In addition, some military branches reportedly resist accepting soldiers trained in other divisions.

The German paper also warned that if the Bundeswehr attempts to adopt the new target, “the debate about reactivating conscription is likely to flare up,” and the recruitment effort could be quite unpopular.

On Wednesday, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius signaled that if there are not enough volunteers Germany may need to revive conscription, which was abolished in 2011. In April, the Interior Ministry also proposed introducing civil defense lessons in schools to prepare students for potential crises and conflicts.

This comes as a number of Western officials have claimed that Russia could launch an attack on NATO within several years. Moscow has repeatedly denied having such plans, dismissing the speculation as “nonsense.”

The US president has said he believes Washington and Moscow can end the conflict

Russian President Vladimir Putin would like to resolve the Ukraine conflict, his US counterpart, Donald Trump, has said. He added that he is certain Washington and Moscow will be able to make a deal and put an end to the hostilities.

On Friday, Russian and Ukrainian delegations held a meeting in Istanbul, which marked the first direct talks since 2022. Both sides agreed to exchange lists of conditions for a potential ceasefire, conduct a major prisoner swap, and discuss a follow-up meeting.

In a Fox News interview aired the same day, Trump pushed back against the notion that Putin does not want to engage in any kind of talks over Ukraine. “He is at the table, and he wanted this meeting,” the US president said, adding: “I think Putin is tired of this whole thing.”

According to Trump, however, his involvement is essential to a breakthrough in the peace process. “I always felt there can’t be a meeting without me because I don’t think a deal’s gonna get through,” he said.

Nevertheless, he expressed optimism about the chances of reaching a settlement. “I have a very good relationship with Putin. I think we’ll make a deal. We have to get together, and I think we’ll probably schedule it.”

When pressed again on whether he sees Putin as an “obstacle to peace,” Trump shifted the focus to Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky. “I had a real rough session with Zelensky, because I didn’t like what he said. He was not making it easy… He doesn’t have the cards,” he said, explaining that Ukraine is fighting against a “massive army.”

Trump was apparently referring to a public spat with the Ukrainian leader during which he accused Zelensky of ingratitude for past US military aid and “gambling with World War III.”

The US president went on to criticize the policy of assisting Ukraine adopted by his predecessor, Joe Biden. “Every time… he [Zelensky] came to Washington, he walks out with $100 billion… I think he’s the greatest salesman in the world, far better than me,” Trump said, adding that Congress has grown frustrated with this as well.

The Ukrainian leader was initially reluctant to agree to the talks in Istanbul proposed by Russia without any conditions, insisting that they should be preceded by a 30-day ceasefire. Moscow has not ruled out the idea in principle, but said Kiev could use the pause to rebuild its battered military.

Despite initial pushback, Zelensky sent a delegation to Istanbul after Trump insisted that “Ukraine should agree to this immediately.”

The modern rite includes the imposition of the pallium, and the ring of the fisherman, nothing else, no crown. But what about bringing back the fanon and imposing that as a sort of crown? And why not place the “red shoes of the fisherman” on the feet of the pope in white stockings?

Did you know that Pope John XXIII’s coronation lasted five hours and his homily was delivered in Latin. YIKES!

Read more about papal starts at the National Catholic Register:

All Eyes on Sunday: Leo XIV’s First Words May Cast His Image on Church’s Future

Washington has reportedly offered to unfreeze billions in funds belonging to the North African state if it accepts residents of Gaza

The administration of US President Donald Trump is working on a plan to permanently relocate up to 1 million Palestinians from Gaza to Libya, NBC has reported, citing informed sources. The White House has denied the claim.

Since taking office in January, Trump has repeatedly said that the US is prepared to take control of Gaza and transform it into a resort on the Mediterranean Sea. The idea has faced strong opposition from other nations in the region, who argue that such plans violate international law, threaten regional stability, and undermine the rights of Palestinians to remain on their ancestral lands.

The plan to relocate around a half of Gaza’s population to Libya is under “serious” consideration in the White House, the broadcaster claimed in an article on Friday.

According to the sources, in exchange for Libya accepting the Palestinians, the Trump administration could be ready to unfreeze some $30 billion in funds belonging to the North African state that were blocked a decade ago.

The NBC report said that Washington had already discussed the idea with the Libyan leadership, although it did not specify which of the country’s rivaling governments it was.

Libya remains in turmoil since a NATO-backed uprising ousted its long-time leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. The Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) and the UN-recognized government’s Stability Support Apparatus (SSA) in the city of Tobruk are currently vying for power in the country.

The head of the head of SSA government, Abdulghani al-Kikli, also known as Ghaniwa, was assassinated this past Monday, which led to clashes in Tripoli. The US State Department advises American citizens against traveling to Libya “due to crime, terrorism, unexploded landmines, civil unrest, kidnapping, and armed conflict.” 

Israel is being informed about the discussion between the US and Libya, the sources said.

No final agreement on moving Palestinians has been reached, according to NBC, which added that details about when or how the plan could be implemented remain “murky.” 

READ MORE: Recognizing Palestine could be one of Trump’s most pro-Israel moves yet

A Trump administration spokesman has said that the report by NBC was “untrue.” The spokesman stressed that the “situation on the ground [in Libya] is untenable for such a plan. Such a plan was not discussed and makes no sense.”

These are the ones that I see as important, although our new Holy Father may have other things in mind apart from my grocery list:

1. TC: Not only is this document cruel as well as later legislation approved by the pope, it is anti-synodal and removes responsibility for the liturgy of the Church from the local bishop, even micromanaging bulletins and what Liturgies can be listed and what can’t. Apart from its authoritarian content, its ecclesiology is questionable. Grotesque discontinuity between the previous Pope Benedict and the new Pope Francis could not be more clear. These hermeneutic of discontinuity and the completely authoritarian nature of the document as well as its cruelty needs to be addressed by Pope Leo. 

2. FS: This is not a development of doctrine or deepening of the doctrine of blessings, but a virus to change the nature of marriage acceptable in the Church. It is a move to bless same sex or LGBTQ+++ relationships, to bless the sexual union not just the people. It was not needed because at every Mass and other occasion when a public blessing is given, sinners as individuals are blessed too. The graces of the blessing are conditioned, though, on the openness of the person to the blessing and the on-going repentance and conversion that every soul needs. Blessing couples or polygamists as such implies blessing the sinful lifestyle. Pope Leo needs to address the heterodoxy of this document or the development of heterodoxy this document has already produced in some dioceses. 

3. Amoris laetitia is a good document except for one little old virus producing footnote. That footnote must be eliminated and an authoritative interpretation of AL must be offered by the new pontiff. 

4. Visitation of more traditional Religious Orders while neglecting Liberal Religious Orders which are out of control, like the Jesuits. Fairness in visitations should be established as well as transparency for the visitation.

From AI:

Monophysitism is a Christological doctrine that holds that Jesus Christ has only one nature, a single divine and human nature combined. It is the opposite of dyophysitism, which asserts that Christ has two distinct natures, human and divine. Monophysitism was condemned by the Council of Chalcedon in 451 CE. 

Here's a more detailed explanation:

Contestants would engage in challenges such as gold mining in California and making cars in Detroit

The US Department of Homeland Security is considering being part of a reality TV show in which migrants compete against each other for American citizenship, the agency’s assistant secretary, Tricia McLaughlin, has said.

In each episode, contestants would take part in American-themed challenges such as digging for gold in California and assembling a car at a plant in Detroit, according to the pitch, which has been seen by a number of outlets. It would reportedly conclude with a town hall meeting and a final vote to select the winner.

The idea for the series, which has the working title ‘The American’, comes from Rob Worsoff, the producer behind reality shows such as ‘The Millionaire Matchmaker’, ‘Duck Dynasty’, and ‘The Biggest Loser’.

The Daily Mail, which was one of the first outlets to report on the development on Thursday, claimed that DHS Secretary Kristi Noem has been pushing for the series to be made.

McLaughlin denied the report in a post on X on Friday, calling it “false” and “an affront to journalism.” Noem is not “even aware” of the reality TV show pitch, she insisted.

The DHS receives hundreds of TV show proposals every year and each of them “undergoes a thorough vetting process prior to denial or approval,” the assistant secretary said. The pitch for ‘The American’ “has not received approval or denial by staff,” she added.

The pitch reportedly says: “contestants will represent a wide demographic of ages, ethnicities, and talents. We will join in the laughter, tears, frustration and joy – hearing their backstories – as we are reminded of how amazing it is to be American, through the eyes of 12 wonderful people, who want nothing more than to have what we have – and what we often take for granted: the freedom, opportunity and honor of what it means to be American.”

Worsoff, who immigrated to the US from Canada, told the Wall Street Journal on Friday that none of the losers in the show would be penalized or face deportation. “This is not ‘The Hunger Games’ for immigrants,” he said.

READ MORE: US to pay illegal migrants to leave

In an interview with CNN, Worsoff noted that he first pitched the idea for the series to the DHS during the administration of US President Barack Obama. He added that he recently held three meetings with DHS officials regarding the show. “I feel like we are trending in a good way,” he said.

Inside This Week's Bull Bear Report

• Recession Probabilities Decline
• How We Are Trading It
• Research Report - Do Stock Buybacks Move The Market?
• YouTube - Before The Bell
• Market Statistics
• Stock Screens
• Portfolio Trades This Week

The "Can't Stop, Won't Stop" Rally

Last week, we discussed how the rally had repaired much of the previous damage following "Liberation Day." However, we also made competing cases for the bulls and bears on the market's next move.

"It is always difficult to say whether this is a 'bear market' rally while you are in the midst of it. In hindsight, these things are easy to identify, and investors have plenty of reasons to play the 'could've, should've' game. However, some valid arguments exist about why the recent correction was just that, and may now be over."

This past week, the market continued its advance. There is little reason to be bearish with key overhead resistance levels broken. However, as shown, the markets are reaching decently overbought levels after being extremely oversold. This suggests that at least for now, the "easy money" has been made. With the market above the 200, and above the 50 and 20-DMA, pullbacks should be between 5600 and 5800. Investors can use such a pullback to increase portfolio equity exposures and reduce hedges accordingly. Conversely, 5000 to 5200 becomes the next critical target if those lower supports are violated. However, such would require some unexpected event to unfold.

Given the reduction in tariff-related risk and stable economic data, we suspect the market will hold bullish support. That statement follows our analysis from earlier this week, which discussed whether we have returned to a bull market or if this is still a bear market rally. That analysis compared the current market advance to the 2022 corrective cycle. However, that article elicited quite a few comments about why the recent "tariff" sell-off could be like the 2020 COVID-pandemic decline and recovery. It's a fair question and worth a few words.

2020 vs 2025

As shown, there is an analogy between the current market recovery and that seen in 2020 following the pandemic. However, it is worth remembering that there are many competing differences between the current macroeconomic backdrop and that of 2020.

However, as we discussed in that previous analysis, even a "can't stop, won't stop bull market" gives those who can be patient better risk/reward opportunities to increase equity exposures. For example, after the initial rally off the March 2020 lows, the market pulled back and consolidated briefly before rallying further. Then, another longer consolidation process that year provided another entry point for bullish investors.

The weekly Technical Gauge we produce each week in this newsletter below follows the same path as 2020. While not yet back to bullish technical extremes, it is moving quickly higher to more elevated levels. When those readings reached 80, the market went through a longer consolidation process in 2020.

So, is this 2022 where the recent rally will fail and test lower levels? Maybe. Or, is it more like 2020, where the rally continues with only mild pullbacks along the way? Possibly. The true answer is that I don't know. However, it is worth considering that there are many macroeconomic differences today compared to 2020. That lack of fiscal and monetary support, slowing economic growth, and tighter monetary policy are headwinds to higher stock prices. But, it is logical that the latest bullish market action has investors questioning a more cautious approach to the markets.

The same is true for us. We are currently underweight equities and hedged. However, the need for hedges is quickly declining, and the need for equity exposure is increasing. It's a tough battle between creating portfolio performance and risk management. We are sticking with risk management until things become more certain, at least for now.

This week, we will discuss why another bearish case is fading - recession probabilities are falling.

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A Funny Thing Happened On The Way To The Coliseum

“A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Coliseum” is a hysterical play by Craig Sodaro. In the play, Simplcuss, a naive Swiss farmer, heads for Rome to follow his dream of becoming a stand-up comedian; little does he know what adventures are in store. Stumbling into the house of General Spurius Sillius in search of food and water, he’s mistaken for the dreaded gladiator, Terribilus, who is due to fight in the Colosseum the following day. Simplcuss has to figure out how to save himself, and he overhears the General’s wife, Drusilla, and Senator Publius Piscious plotting to kill the Emperor’s daughter and the Emperor himself!

Without telling you the ending, there are many similarities to the current market. Over the last several months, the media headlines have been filled with stories of “Recessionus Terribulus." Whether President Trump planned to deport illegal immigrants, Elon Musk and DOGE cutting government spending, or lately the fears of tariffs, all played into the media headlines of an impending recession.

Of course, there was also economic data to help support those claims. As discussed in the "Consumer Is Tapping Out," rising delinquency rates are problematic. Particularly, for an economy driven by personal consumption. To wit:

"The current data point toward a recessionary risk. Deflation is highly correlated to economic growth rates, wages, and rates. Unsurprisingly, recessions reduce inflation as demand for goods and services collapses. While inflation may be “sticky,” the recent decline in bond yields and wages suggests consumer demand will decline this year. When tariffs, an additional tax on consumers, increase the cost burden, the reaction historically is not expansionary."

Furthermore, last weekend's #BullBearReport noted the rather sharp negative revisions to earnings estimates for the S&P 500 index.

"Given the slowdown in economic growth rates, it is unsurprising that, as of May 1st, S&P Global finally acquiesced and revised earnings estimates lower. However, this wasn’t a mild earnings revision but a slashing of estimates from their April 15th expectation of $292/share in 2026 to just $274. Furthermore, full-year 2025 reported earnings estimates were cut by nearly $20/share from $258/share to just $238/share."

However, what is interesting is that despite these and several other indicators suggesting an increase in recessionary risk, the financial markets are currently putting in one of the strongest rallies we have seen since the COVID pandemic. Of course, much of that rally came on the heels of the relief of the sharp reduction of tariffs on China, one of the U.S.'s key trading partners.

As such, while Wall Street analysts and economists were slashing economic growth and earnings estimates just a month ago, striking fear into investors' hearts, that has now reversed.

Recession Probabilities Are Falling

Following the announcements of trade deals with both the UK and China, recession probabilities for 2025 declined. Now, economists are rushing to reverse those previous recession calls.

The reality is that the onerous tariff levels initiated by the Trump administration were never permanent. This was a mistaken assumption by the mainstream media. Furthermore, the "inflation impact" from tariffs, which was expected to cause the recession, has yet to appear. Such is evident in both inflation reports this past week. The chart below shows the composite CPI/PPI index and whether inflation is above or below the long-term average inflation rate. Currently, inflation is 2% below its long-term average.

Inflation failing to appear is unsurprising and something we discussed in detail in "Tariffs Roil Markets." In their rush to undermine the current administration, the media also failed to consider two important facts we discussed previously.

"The first is that Trump’s tariffs are a 'stick and carrot' for negotiating an agreement with both Mexico and Canada. As you will see, all he wanted was assistance in securing the borders, reducing illegal immigration, and arresting the illegal flow of drugs, especially “Fentanyl,” into the U.S. Therefore, any assistance provided by Canada or Mexico would lead to a reversal of those tariffs. Secondly, we stated the market’s opening would likely be the worst level of the day, so any “panic selling” of positions early in the morning would likely be a mistake."

That same logic applies to China and every other country dependent on U.S. trade. Given that China depends on roughly $50 billion in annual trade (16.2% of total exports worldwide) to the U.S. for its economic growth, President Trump was correct in assuming he had a stronger hand in the negotiations.

With those tariffs vastly reduced, the risk of the recessionary impact from an excess "tax" on consumers is fading. However, even with the tariffs reversed, the economic data, while slowing, does not suggest that a recession risk is imminent.

A Recession-Proof Economy?

Doug Cass made a valid point this past week, asking if the "economy is now recession-proof."

"Is the economy now recession-proof? Is this also now a syntax question as opposed to a practical question?

By a syntax question, this is what I mean. Recession is measured by reported GDP and reported employment. GDP is in part a function of reported inflation. If inflation is understated, GDP is overstated by the same amount. Employment includes jobs going to immigrants, second jobs, jobs created by the birth/death model, and jobs going to government employees that often have negative productivity and whose roles (regulatory and bureaucratic nonsense) end up harming the country and the economy, even though they help GDP in the short term.

The country thought we were in recession in the middle part of the Biden term. This includes very prominent financial minds and the average Joe. There is a reason the election went the way it did: “It’s the economy, stupid.” But, as measured by the official stats, there was no recession, and things were pretty good. Now, we are still not in recession, and as measured by the same stats, it still seems 50% likely we will not be in recession, and if we ever enter one, it feels like it might be mild, at least as measured by those same statistics.

So, is the economy now recession-proof? If we don’t go into a recession now, with the shaky foundation that was in place, including an overspent consumer, all the debt, global tensions, and all the uncertainty, it feels like we will never have a recession."

It seems that way, but the one contributing factor that broke all pre-existing models was the flood of monetary and fiscal stimulus post the COVID pandemic. It may take us years to determine if the previous historical models and indicators, such as inverted yield curves, ever function as they did previously to gauge recession probabilities. Maybe they won't.

However, as noted above, economists are rapidly reversing their predictions about the recession and now suggest that President Trump's actions, while previously thought to be an economic disaster, might be beneficial. Furthermore, financial conditions are improving, which also supports economic activity. If that trend continues, particularly if the Fed resumes cutting interest rates, it should start to feed into consumer confidence. If consumer confidence strengthens, which would be logical following recent tariff resolutions, this should reduce recession probabilities further.

Understand the message here. As discussed two weeks ago, the economic growth rate is slowing, but recession probabilities remain low.

That does not mean that a recession is permanently avoided.

However, therein lies the problem with recession probabilities and predictions in the first place.

The Problem With Recession Predictions

It is wise to remember that in 2022, we had the most anticipated recession, which failed to occur and preceded one of the strongest bull markets in recent history.

The problem with predicting recessions is that economists always work off lagging economic data. Such is particularly the case with GDP, which is revised three times following the end of the quarter, 12 months, and 3 years later. Historically, given that lag, the timing of U.S. recessions can be off by 9 to 12 months before they are recognized by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The chart below shows the lag between the onset and recognition of previous U.S. recessions.

The following table better shows the lag between the start and recognition of previous U.S. recessions. I have also noted the impact on financial markets as investors reprice earnings growth for a reversal in economic growth rates.

Investors must decide whether the current correction is “just a correction” or whether the risk of a U.S. recession is increasing.

Currently, few indicators suggest recession probabilities are rising. The Economic Composite Index (a comprehensive measure of economic activity comprised of more than 100 data points) is in expansionary territory. The EOCI index confirms the improvement in the 6-month rate of change in the Leading Economic Index (LEI), one of the best recession indicators, and current levels of economic growth. While economic growth will undoubtedly slow as all of the excess governmental spending under the previous Administration reverses, there is currently no recession warning in the data. That does not mean that it can not change in the future. However, for now, the risk of recession is extremely low.

Adding to that analysis, the economically weighted ISM composite index is also in expansionary territory, suggesting no current risk of recession. This composite index (80% service / 20% manufacturing) is why we wrote that there was no recession risk in 2023 or 2024 despite inverted yield curves.

Lastly, Government spending remains robust, which fuels economic growth. While the current Administration is looking to cut spending and reduce the deficit, which would weaken economic growth rates, they are making very little headway.

Furthermore, despite the hopes that DOGE would cut Federal spending, it has only returned to the post-financial crisis exponential growth trend as the Government continues to use “Continuing Resolutions” to fund the Government. These resolutions automatically increase government spending by 8% annually. In other words, spending doubles every nine years, so debt levels continue to rise, feeding into economic growth rates.

Conclusion: Staying Grounded Amid Market Volatility

While recession probabilities have resurfaced in the headlines following the recent market sell-off, the economic data does not yet support the narrative of an imminent downturn.

As I discussed in “The Risk Of Recession Is Not Zero,” the government is currently engaged in activities that will impact economic growth. If those actions are combined with those of an already struggling consumer, the risk of recession will undoubtedly increase. Thus, economists are now scrambling to reverse their recession calls.

Historically, recession calls tend to be premature, often relying on lagging indicators that confirm economic contractions only well after they have begun. Current indicators point to a slower economic expansion, not contraction. Although growth is slowing, a slower growth environment does not equate to a recession—a distinction investors must keep in mind.

The more significant concern for markets is the inevitable impact of slowing economic growth on corporate earnings expectations. With analysts projecting continued double-digit earnings growth into 2026, there is an apparent disconnect between these forecasts and the economic reality. History suggests that earnings will eventually revert to levels that align with economic activity, which could lead to further bouts of market volatility.

For investors, the key takeaway is to stay informed, focus on fundamentals, and avoid being swayed by short-term noise. While volatility and corrections are natural in market cycles, history shows that panic-driven decisions often lead to missed opportunities. As long as economic indicators remain expansionary, the risk of a recession remains low, though careful monitoring is warranted. Investors should continue to assess their portfolios, manage risk prudently, and position themselves for a gradual slowdown rather than an economic collapse.

How We Are Trading It

As noted last week, we continue to manage our portfolios in a manner that allows us to participate in the market while still hedging against underlying risk. As such, we have started rebalancing risk as necessary and adjusting portfolio holdings to improve relative market performance. Notably, the breadth of the market has improved, but as noted above, the short-term overbought conditions suggest the "easy money" has been made. We will wait for corrections to reduce cash balances further and remove portfolio hedges entirely. That is, of course, unless some other unexpected event surfaces that substantially increases market risk.

As noted, while the risk of recession has fallen, recession probabilities are not zero. As we said in Friday's Daily Market Commentary:

"However, patience will likely pay off here. As noted previously, we are still on a weekly sell signal, which has historically led to short-term market underperformance. As shown, previous periods of historical weekly moving average crossovers typically involve a more extended period of consolidation or corrective price actions. The main exception to that rule was 2020, when the Federal Reserve intervened with massive monetary support. With yields rising and the Fed on hold, no excess support is coming into the market other than a surge in corporate buybacks. However, those are due to decline starting next month."

Continue to follow the rules and stick to your discipline. (Read our article on “What Is Risk” for a complete list of rules)

Have a great weekend.

(Note: The allocation below contains a 5% short S&P 500 position in the ETF allocation.)

Feel free to reach out if you want to navigate these uncertain waters with expert guidance. Our team specializes in helping clients make informed decisions in today’s volatile markets.

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Bull Bear Report Market Statistics & Screens

SimpleVisor Top & Bottom Performers By Sector

S&P 500 Weekly Tear Sheet

Relative Performance Analysis

Unsurprisingly, after the pervasive rally over the past week, almost every major market and sector is now extremely overbought. With recession probabilities falling sharply, the rush to regain equity exposure has forced ongoing short-covering. However, it is unlikely the market will be able to push much further without a short-term correction or consolidation to relieve some of that overbought condition. Take some profits, rebalance risks, and look for a pullback to reduce hedges and add exposures.

Technical Composite

The technical overbought/sold gauge comprises several price indicators (R.S.I., Williams %R, etc.), measured using “weekly” closing price data. Readings above “80” are considered overbought, and below “20” are oversold. The market peaks when those readings are 80 or above, suggesting prudent profit-taking and risk management. The best buying opportunities exist when those readings are 20 or below.

The current reading is 69.06 out of a possible 100.

Portfolio Positioning “Fear / Greed” Gauge

The “Fear/Greed” gauge is how individual and professional investors are “positioning” themselves in the market based on their equity exposure. From a contrarian position, the higher the allocation to equities, the more likely the market is to be closer to a correction than not. The gauge uses weekly closing data.

NOTE: The Fear/Greed Index measures risk from 0 to 100. It is a rarity that it reaches levels above 90.

The current reading is 69.35 out of a possible 100.

Relative Sector Analysis

Most Oversold Sector Analysis

Sector Model Analysis & Risk Ranges

How To Read This Table

• The table compares the relative performance of each sector and market to the S&P 500 index.
• “MA XVER” (Moving Average Crossover) is determined by the short-term weekly moving average crossing positively or negatively with the long-term weekly moving average.
• The risk range is a function of the month-end closing price and the “beta” of the sector or market. (Ranges reset on the 1st of each month)
• The table shows the price deviation above and below the weekly moving averages.

The "relentless rally" continued this past week and has pushed most markets and sectors well above their normal risk ranges. That rally in equities has come at the expense of gold, gold miners, and bonds, which we previously warned would be the case. However, given the more extreme short-term overbought conditions, investors should look for a correction over the next week or two to relieve some of that pressure. However, that dip should likely be bought particularly if supports hold at the 200-DMA.

Weekly SimpleVisor Stock Screens

We provide three stock screens each week from SimpleVisor.

This week, we are searching for the Top 20:

• Relative Strength Stocks
• Momentum Stocks
• Technical Strength W/ Dividends

(Click Images To Enlarge)

RSI Screen

Momentum Screen

Technically Strong With Dividends

SimpleVisor Portfolio Changes

We post all of our portfolio changes as they occur at SimpleVisor:

May 15th

This morning, we took some profits in our energy positions, coinciding with the crude oil price bump. Our concern is that oil prices will head back lower due to “drill baby drill” policies, OPEC policies, and a weakening economy. While we reduced the total energy exposure, we did add to OKE (up to 2%), as it is a natural gas pipeline company and less impacted by lower crude prices. We added a 1% position in AMLP, an ETF holding pipeline stocks. It pays a nearly 8% dividend. While we prefer OKE, it does help align the exposure in the sector model more closely with the equity model.

Equity Model

• Sell 100% of XOM and FANG
• Increase OKE to 2% of the portfolio.

ETF Model

• Sell 100% of iShares Energy ETF (XLE)
• Add 1% of the portfolio to AMLP

May 16th

In early April, we reduced our exposure to healthcare stocks as the threat of tariffs loomed large. With that threat largely mitigated, and the recent executive order on drug pricing being more “bark than bite,” we are starting to rebuild our positions at better prices. Today, we are increasing our current exposure in AbbVie (ABBV) and Eli Lilly (LLY) in the equity model, and adding to the iShares Healthcare Sector (XLV) in the ETF model.

Equity Model

• Increase ABBV to 3.5% of the portfolio and LLY to 2.5%.

ETF Model

• Increase XLV to 7% of the portfolio.

Lance Roberts, C.I.O., RIA Advisors

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European NATO members have no idea whether the US president is ready to be tough on Russia, the outlet claims

European NATO members are “frustrated” with US President Donald Trump’s “constant swerving” on Ukraine peace talks, which they believe undermines their ability to pressure Russia, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing sources.

Kiev’s backers are uncertain regarding what Trump will do following the inconclusive Turkish-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on Friday, according to the news agency. The meeting was the first direct engagement between the belligerents since 2022.

Key European NATO members initially believed that Trump supported their plan to impose new sanctions on Russia if it rejected the demand for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire with Ukraine, the article said. Moscow has stated that it is open to a ceasefire “in general,” but has expressed concern that it would only give Ukraine time to regroup and rest its battered forces.

However, the West’s unified front apparently started to crumble after Moscow proposed direct Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul without any preconditions, according to Bloomberg. The overture prompted the US president to insist that Kiev “immediately” agree to restart dialogue, despite Vladimir Zelensky’s reluctance to do so without a ceasefire.

One European official expressed hope that the Istanbul meeting would “make it clear to Trump that the Russians aren’t serious about peace talks,” prompting the US to respond decisively. Some European leaders reportedly believe that Trump may still follow through on earlier threats to impose secondary sanctions and banking restrictions on Moscow.

Others, however, are said to be skeptical about whether Trump – who has repeatedly said he wants to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to settle the Ukraine conflict – has an appetite for drastic measures.

At the Istanbul meeting, discussions included ceasefire options, a prisoner exchange, and plans for a potential follow-up meeting. Vladimir Medinsky, Russia’s top negotiator, said Moscow is “satisfied” with the results of the Istanbul talks and is ready to “resume contacts” with Kiev.

Russia has stated that the Ukraine conflict could be settled if Kiev commits to permanent neutrality, demilitarization, denazification, and recognizes the “territorial reality on the ground.” Kiev, however, has ruled out any territorial concessions to Moscow.