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It is an interesting kind of horror that modern academia, an environment where objective facts should be most revered, has instead become an environment where objective facts are most reviled.  The complete denial of biological reality within the western academic community is an enduring source of social disruption.  Their continued promotion of gender fluid theory, based on zero concrete scientific evidence, is stealing opportunities from real women and turning western education into an embarrassing mockery.

The Trump Administration's efforts to reverse the cancerous growth of wokeness in public institutions is making a difference, but there are still many areas of American life that will remain infected for years to come.

The latest example is the recent announcement that Dr. Rachel Levine (formerly Richard Levine), a man pretending to be a woman, is  being awarded an honorary degree by Smith College in Massachusetts.  Keep in mind, Smith College is a historic private women's college. 

Today, beginning at 10:00 a.m. ET, @smithcollege will have its annual commencement ceremony.

Congratulations to all the female graduates of this historically women-only college!

During the ceremony, @smithcollege will award an honorary degree to Richard ("Rachel") Levine, who… pic.twitter.com/lOaRfBSgAa

Levine has also been given the honor of addressing graduates in a commencement speech with "words of wisdom" for women entering the professional world.  Rachel Levine served as the "first trans Secretary for Health" for the US Department of Health and Human Services under the Biden Administration.  Levine exploited the position to push trans propaganda on the American public.  He also widely advocated for the gender transitioning of children.  

Chartered in 1871 by Sophia Smith and opened in 1875, Smith is a member of the historic Seven Sisters colleges, a group of women's colleges in the Northeastern United States.  It should be noted that Smith College has received extensive federal funding, which is something the Trump Administration might want to look into.

The school's decision to give an honorary degree to a man has led to some backlash, with women protesters speaking out on the hypocrisy.  The issue of men going trans and invading women's spaces has divided the feminist movement, with woke extremists on one side and "TERFs" (trans-exclusionary radical feminists) on the other side.  The "TERF" label is meant to be a pejorative insult to those women that refuse to accept trans women (men) as legitimate women.

A trantifa woman harassed and cursed out a group of women protesting @smithcollege, an extremely woke historical women’s college, for awarding Richard “Rachel” Levine an honorary degree. pic.twitter.com/UYwsXJ9y9f

The overarching problem with the trans movement is that it demands the normalization and even celebration of mental illness under protected group status.  On the totem pole of social justice, trans people are at the top, enjoying a venerated position even above black women and gays.  The level of hand holding and social coddling of transgenders hit almost worshipful heights during the Biden Administration's woke blitz.  It was a primary factor in the eventual fall of the Democratic Party.   

Virtue signaling among the academic elite suggests that progressives have still not learned their lesson when it comes to biological reality and the US has a ways to go before the trans issue is settled. 

Woke elites running Harvard University into the ground faced fresh controversy on Monday morning as House Republicans launched a formal inquiry into the school's reported ties with foreign adversaries, citing serious national security and ethical concerns.

The House Select Committee on China, joined by the House Committee on Education and Workforce and Chairwoman of House Republican Leadership Elise Stefanik, sent a letter to Harvard demanding transparency and accountability regarding the university's partnerships with foreign adversaries and entities involved in human rights abuses. 

The investigation focuses on the university's reported partnerships with Chinese military-linked institutions, sanctioned entities, and researchers tied to the Iranian regime.

House Republicans are demanding internal documents and testimony, adding to a growing list of challenges plaguing the university, including recent controversies over campus antisemitism and donor backlash.

Addressed to Harvard President Alan Garber, the letter sent by Education and Workforce Committee Chairman Tim Walberg (R-MI), Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman John Moolenaar (R-MI), and House Republican Leadership Chairwoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY) outlined Harvard's troubling partnerships and activities that raise alarm bells about national security and ethical concerns: 

• Harvard's repeated training of members of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC)—a U.S.-sanctioned paramilitary group that plays a central role in the Chinese Communist Party's genocide of Uyghur Muslims

• Research partnerships funded by the Department of Defense with Chinese military-linked universities, including Tsinghua, Zhejiang, and Huazhong Universities

• Collaborations with Iranian-government-funded researchers, including projects financed by the Iranian National Science Foundation

• Organ transplantation research involving PRC-based collaborators, amid mounting evidence of the CCP's forced organ harvesting practices

Moolenaar stated, "Harvard trained members of a sanctioned Chinese paramilitary group responsible for genocide, and its researchers partnered with Chinese military universities on DoD-funded research and worked with researchers funded by the Iranian regime," adding, "These are not isolated incidents—they represent a disturbing pattern that puts U.S. national security at risk. The Select Committee's investigation will deliver answers, expose the truth, and hold Harvard accountable to the American people."

Chairman Walberg stated, "No American university or college should be assisting the CCP in expanding its influence, oppressing American citizens, or undermining U.S. national security," adding, "Unfortunately, we have found several instances in which Harvard University aided and even collaborated with the CCP – including helping Chinese researchers on military projects funded by the Iranian government. This is unacceptable and President Garber needs to provide answers to Congress for this colossal failure."

And Chairwoman Stefanik stated, "Harvard University must be held accountable. I demand full transparency and immediate cooperation with the Select Committee's investigation. We must ensure that no American institution enables the CCP's military modernization or the Iranian regime's technological ambitions — especially under the guise of academic exchange." 

The news of the House Republican investigation into Harvard's questionable foreign ties follows widespread layoffs reported last week following the U.S. government's termination notices for federally funded research projects. 

So far, the Trump administration has canceled approximately $2.7 billion in grants, with another nearly $1 billion in funding for Harvard's research partners at risk.

President Garber announced he would soon take a 25% pay cut after losing federal funding. He refused the Trump administration's simple request to comply with concerns over DEI and antisemitism.

"More than 80 faculty members — from several schools and academic units — have pledged to donate 10 percent of their salaries for up to a year to support the University if it continues to resist the Trump administration," The Harvard Crimson recently reported.

So brave.

Harvard alumnus Bill Ackman commented last week about the school's death spiral.

.@Harvard is dying from a series of self-inflicted wounds. https://t.co/gYhQhoxp9k

I have reached out to members of the @Harvard Corporation Board offering to help, but I have received no response.

I did the same shortly after October 7th and my offers to help were rejected. At least back then, I got a response.

Chair Penny Pritzker and the entire Harvard… https://t.co/JUpbhVV6I6

We suspect House Republicans won't stop with Harvard. These investigations are likely to expand to other Ivy League schools that have aggressively pushed toxic Marxist DEI agendas—initiatives that, in some cases, may have been influenced by foreign adversaries to undermine the nation. Some of these elite schools foster disdain for America, which is deeply troubling. This trend must be confronted and reversed.

*   *    * 

Full Letter to Harvard U. from House Republicans...

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

What kinds of attitudes do you bring to the prospect of political and social change? The answer matters more than we think. Those with hope and passion for improvement tend to win the day, especially if the other side merely wallows in grievance and despair.

This is true for writers and intellectuals too. We are all trying to find our way through in a thicket of confusion in what are truly treacherous times. In the backdrop stands a complex emotional template that can profoundly affect how we see the world and its future.

G.K. Chesterton once wrote that he rejects both optimism and pessimism, preferring to look at reality itself, even in the darkest of times, with hope and not despair. It is equally important to look at the brightest times with trepidation that something might, alas, be broken underneath the surface and therefore they won’t last.

Those words have stuck with me. A naive optimism is as pointless as the fatalism of a perpetually downcast pessimism that sees every sign of improvement as a delusion.

The times call on all of us to adopt a more Chestertonian attitude toward the world around us, our expectations for the future, and our own role in it. The bias of eschatological certainty can blind in both directions, either by chaining us to dread of a doomed future or by luring us into complacency with visions of an eminently dawning utopia.

Many people are traumatized from the last five years. We’ve discovered that many of the conspiracy theories are true. There were memes passed around over these years that the wackiest theories last month seem to come true this month.

Elon Musk even confirmed it. When he took over Twitter and got a first-hand look at what was being censored and why, he told interviewers that every conspiracy theory is true and then some. His comment underscores the feeling of betrayal sensed by everyone in public and private life today.

When you go through times like this, the oldest spiritual battles confront all of us. We can join in the rot while throwing away all standards of decency and honesty. The presumption here is that the system is corrupt so we might as well join in, like rioters when the fires start to burn.

Another response is to throw yourself into being part of the solution in some way at some level. This could be in your own household or it could be in national politics, plus everything in between.

What increasingly concerns me is a different breed that has come to populate the dissident movement, especially these days and in light of all we’ve been through. These are people who have done vast reading and discovered that the problems around us are extremely deep, tracing to classified worlds of darkness and occult influences. They extend this analysis far back in time, even tracing this to the ancient world.

There is nothing wrong with that outlook as such except that it does feed into a conviction that there is no escape under any conditions. Rather than join in or fly into a hopeful opposition with constructive efforts to change, they construct an ideology of despair. This says that there is nothing to be done because the bad guys rule all things.

There is no chance for progress, says this view, and anything that looks hopeful is nothing but a sham. All seeming good news or admissions of wrongdoing are nothing but “limited hangouts,” probably pushed by “controlled opposition,” making concessions to distract us from the dark truths of our entrenched and depraved destiny.

In popular parlance, and tracing to the model presented in the movie “The Matrix,” these are people who take the Black Pill. This is different from the Blue Pill, which is what you take to go along to get along, or the Red Pill, which is what you take to be part of the reality-based solution. The Black Pill is what you take to wallow in despair and drag everyone around down with you.

I suspect you know someone who has taken the Black Pill. I have variously encountered them for years. Frustrated with such people, the pen name Midwestern Doctor recently wrote that the Black Pill leads people to say: “it’s futile to ever make things better so if you try to, you’re just getting scammed,” “all the things being proposed are actually distractions to keep us from fixing the real problem,” and “the person proposing this terrible proposal is actually an enemy trying to sabotage the movement.”

The Black Pill is seductive because it “It gives you a way to feel in control of your environment (by declaring it’s hopeless to do anything) and superior to others (by knowing a secret truth they don’t know).” Yes, it is easily rendered as a form of Gnosticism, a theory that only a few know the fullness of the esoteric truth while all exoteric knowledge is mere veneer.

The Black Pill is closely related to the problem of purity seeking. No change in social policy, law, or legislation will ever be enough, of course. For that reason, every hint of progress, even vast progress, is easily presented as a trick designed to hide more fundamental corruption. Nothing is ever good enough, and any attempt to make something better is itself part of the problem because it deceives people into thinking there will ever be a way out of the morass.

It’s inevitable that Black-Pilled purists will be meanest to those they are the closest to. This is because those are the people who will listen to them, and the social set among which they can make a difference. For this reason, they can be toxic to any attempt at community organizing, social cohesion, or basic demands of collegiality. When people figure out the game and block them or stop inviting them, they always have a ready excuse: the leadership of the group is clearly compromised and part of the enemy.

This only scratches the surface of the problems of Black-Pilled purists. Because they rule out the possibility of making a difference for good, they target those who try and put down every effort to improve the world. De facto, they always end up saying that the existing status quo, however bad it is, is actually better than the reformed world given to us by people who are compromised and playing ball with the elites. Perversely, then, the purists in every movement eventually become useful servants of the very elites they claim to oppose.

If you follow what I’ve written above, you can understand why some small minority of people that who worked to bring the Trump administration to power, or at least contributed to raising grave doubts about alternatives, are now putting down every effort at reform, even tangible victories.

The MAGA and MAHA movement has Black-Pilled purists in its ranks who will never be satisfied until condition X is met. Condition X could be an end to all hormones in livestock, a ban on all GMOs, an end to all foreign aid, a withdrawal and ban of mRNA shots or all vaccines, stopping all trade with China, or whatever other condition you name, which they always deem the top priority.

Nothing less will do. When that condition is met, there will always be more, because the point is not actually betterment but perpetual alienation from the idea of betterment itself.

As you can see, such people do not work and play well with others, make difficult colleagues, and end up as destructive forces within any attempted community of activists or intellectuals. Such people thrive on factionalism in every smaller unit of interest, all with the hope of being the leader of a community of their own creation, even if it is a community of one.

Such people invariably drive people off from any community, displacing productive and hopeful people with more followers of their dark worldview. Sadly, they are rarely blocked before they cause damage because they specialize in playing off the tolerance of others and the fear of leadership in being called censors or hidden assets of the bad guys.

The biggest problem with the Black Pill is spiritual. It is not possible to wallow constantly in despair and keep it from invading every nook and cranny of the brain, heart, and soul. It becomes an addiction to the point that such people will never be satisfied without the dopamine rush that comes with trashing everything and everybody no matter what.

Don’t take the Black Pill. Again, the attitude of Chesterton is the right one: Even in the darkest of times, hope is better than despair. A naive optimism is as unproductive as a perpetually downcast and paralyzing pessimism that sees every sign of improvement as a delusion.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Swamp Fever

“Don’t misunderstand me. I want Biden to get better and live many more years, so he can watch his family go broke from running out of influence to sell.” 

- Oilfield Rando on X

If the slithering denizens of Okefenokee-on-the-Potomac were nervous about their fates before Sunday — and I’d say they’ve been rather jumped-up since Nov. 4 — then Maria Bartiromo’s Sunday morning session with FBI top dawgs Patel and Bongino must have been a near-death experience for them. Something Roto-rooterish this way comes, officialdom must be thinking, if you can call utter hysteria “thinking.”

Washington is nervous because there have been zero leaks from the agency, a condition heretofore unknown in that haunted, pestiferous, reeking marsh. There’s plenty of the usual background noise, of course: the insectile hum, the croaking, trilling, buzzing, staccato peeps, chirps, and squeals of the squirming lesser creatures. . . the occasional roar of an ancient gator. . . the guttural cry of the night heron, the sharp yelp of some furry prey meeting its doom, the pulsating, primordial, chthonic cacophony of creatures suffering to mate in the frightful darkness. . . but that’s just the news media doing their thing.

We’ve remarked more than once here in recent weeks about the ominous silence emanating from the FBI leadership amidst all that other noise, and now you know: a mighty information dump is coming, bales of documents that Christopher Wray sat on for years will be publicly released un-redacted, spells will be broken, names will be named (with imputations of crimes committed), and abiding mysteries unraveled — like, what was the FBI actually doing around the US Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and much more.

Prepare for some disappointment. Alas, most non-capital federal crimes (acts short of treason and murder) have a five-year statute of limitations (18 U.S.C. § 3282), so the multitudinous felonious misdeeds of RussiaGate will go unpunished. Stzrok, McCabe, Rosenstein, Pientka, Ohr (and wife Nellie), Thibault, Baker, Atkinson, Halper, Horowitz, Lynch, Yates, et al., will skate off into the sunset, but not without lasting reputational damage. Mr. Obama’s presidential aura will surely lose a lot of its luster.

But there is plenty to keep the DOJ busy with more recent turpitudes carried out with the election of “Joe Biden,” including perhaps the 2020 election itself in the months before November, 2025, when the statute of limitations kicks in for that caper. Mainly, what looms is a reckoning over “Joe Biden’s” fake presidency and the momentous question as to who was really running the executive branch of the government, most particularly who was using the devious “auto-pen” to sign off on executive orders and perhaps even on legislation.

It is a wonder of modern times that this affront to the public trust somehow remains an abiding mystery. But it shows just how fake Jake Tapper’s new book is — Original Sin: President Biden's Decline, Its Cover-Up, and His Disastrous Choice to Run Again. Jake blames the whole fiasco on “the White House” without ever stating who in that building was actually acting in “JB’s” place as shadow president. Tapper, allegedly a reporter, apparently never bothered to ask. But neither did anyone else at CNN, the other TV news networks, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Atlantic, and every other outpost of OG journalism.

Nor does Jake conclude the obvious: that his entire profession sold out the country to act as the Democratic Party’s damage control agency — rather than its traditional duty to act as a powerful check on corrupt, runaway government. Which is to say that the news media Jake represents is at least as corrupt as the government itself.

It’s for certain now, anyway, that we are going to find out exactly who was behind the fabled auto-pen, and it will probably turn out to be a cabal composed of Chiefs-of-Staff, Ron Klain and Jeffrey Zients, Dr. Jill, NSA Jake Sullivan, Deputy AG Lisa Monaco, Domestic Affairs advisor Susan Rice, and ultimately to some degree former President Obama, holed-up a few blocks away in his Kalorama mansion those four years of “Joe Biden’s” term in the oval office. Why wouldn’t Mr. Obama, now a private citizen, be called to some official forum, say a courtroom or a congressional committee, to answer questions about that? He’s not any sort of God with God-like privileges.

What we’re just beginning to see now is a furious divorce struggle between the OG news outfits and the Democratic Party, both fighting for their very lives. They are both already mortally wounded, even as they turn on each other, and liable to drop dead in the onslaught behind whatever Patel & Bongino fire at them in the weeks ahead. And even while all those RussiaGaters skate from out-of-date charges, plenty of other officials (and non-officials, like the lawfare ninjas, Eisen, Elias, and Weissmann) could go down for what went on since inauguration day, 2021.

Then there is Ed Martin, lately tossed aside as US attorney for the DC district, doing an adroit lateral arabesque into Main Justice as (simultaneously) the US Pardons Attorney, Director of the Weaponization Working Group, and Associate Deputy Attorney General. We are going to find out whether any of those preemptive pardons signed with the auto-pen in the last hours of “Joe Biden’s” presidency have legal credence. They include the pardons issued for the whole House J-6 investigation committee. House members are not immune from prosecution for crimes committed in connection with their official duties. That means you, Adam Schiff, Liz Cheney, Jamie Raskin, and Bennie Thompson.

And so, also amidst all that deafening noise roaring across The Swamp, we get the sad news over the weekend that former president, now plain citizen Joe Biden, has got aggressive Stage 4 metastatic prostate cancer spreading into his very bones. Strange to relate, this is one of the very “turbo-cancers” said to be induced by the Covid-19 mRNA “vaccine” shots that “JB” exhorted Americans to take — and supposedly submitted to himself. What can you say, besides boo-hoo?

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

Current FBI Director Kash Patel is closing down the agency’s Washington, DC, mothership office and moving at least 1,500 employees out of the DC area to regional offices.

The decision was not just Patel’s.

During the Biden Administration, it was determined that the 50-year-old Hoover building headquarters was structurally decrepit. More germanely, no prior FBI director had ever explained why nearly a third of the FBI workforce was centered in offices in Washington, far from where most of the serious crime in America occurs.

The news is welcome for reasons well beyond the safety of agents in an apparently unsafe headquarters.

It is no exaggeration to state that most of the FBI scandals of the last decade were born in the Hoover building headquarters, suggesting that the agency had long become top-heavy, politically weaponized, and deeply embedded in and compromised by the Washington apparat.

Former FBI Director, later appointed as special counsel, Robert Mueller ran a media-driven, 20-month, 40-million-dollar legal circus chasing the unicorn of “Russian collusion.” His left-wing legal team—replete with political conflicts of interest and scrubbed cell phones—was dubbed by the obsequious, giddy left-wing media as the “army,” “untouchables,” “all-stars,” “dream team,” and “hunter-killer teams.”

When called to testify about his investigation that had found no Russian-Trump collusion, Mueller implausibly denied any knowledge of the Steele dossier or FusionGPS. Yet they were arguably the very catalysts for his own special counsel appointment.

Two of his Washington FBI investigators were fired—the amorous Peter Strzok and Lisa Page—who had co-texted a deep personal antipathy toward Trump, the object of their investigations, and a desire to see him not become president, referred to as an “insurance policy.” 

Note that either the FBI or Mueller’s team also mysteriously lost the requested recorded texts and calls on the duo’s phones.

Mueller’s successor, James Comey, outdid his predecessor’s congressionally sworn amnesia. Now in the news yet again for allegedly threatening the president with an “8647” tweet, Comey, while under oath to a congressional committee, stonewalled questioning by claiming he did not remember or could not answer on some 245 separate occasions.

Somehow in 2016, Comey—suddenly acting as both an investigator and a de facto federal prosecutor, despite clear conflicts of interest—managed to interfere in the 2016 campaign by finding Hillary Clinton likely guilty of, but somehow not indictable for, a number of felonies, from unlawfully transmitting classified files to destroying subpoenaed evidence.

Comey also lied to the president that he was not a subject of his own ongoing FBI-directed investigation of Trump.

Comey hired Christopher Steele as an informant and thereby helped to birth Steele’s fabrications.

Comey, through a friend, leaked to the New York Times his own private conversations with the president, recorded on his own FBI device no less.

He set up National Security Advisor Michael Flynn and bragged about how easily the naive and ambushed Flynn foolishly spoke to his FBI investigators without an attorney.

His successor, interim director Andrew McCabe, was a kindred leaker and political partisan. 

He was fired for lying to federal investigators on four occasions, three times while under oath.

McCabe’s successor, Christopher Wray, infamously oversaw FBI agents spying on parents at school board meetings and supposedly also monitoring “radical traditionalist” Catholics.

Wray’s FBI conducted the now equally discredited Mar-a-Lago SWAT team raid on ex-President Trump’s personal residence. The performance-art operation was supposedly designed to find rumored mountains of improperly stored classified files. Despite all the leaks and fake news about troves of secret and classified dossiers, in the end, agents carted away 13,000 documents to find a mere 102 that were deemed classified—some .007 percent of what they confiscated.

In a now-infamous photo of the document trove released by the FBI, Trump’s classified papers were haphazardly strewn across the floor with nearby covers emblazoned “Secret” in red rubrics.

Agents later admitted the photos did not reflect the actual position of the documents when they had arrived, but were scattered over the floor and photographed by the FBI, along with the covers that they had brought along to the raid as photo props.

The FBI then showed far less interest in investigating Joe Biden’s three-decade-long illegal possession of classified documents, stored in at least three unsecured locations—and only revealed when the Biden White House had appointed a special counsel to investigate Trump for what Biden himself had done for far longer, with less security and with continued impunity.

Washington FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith was indicted and convicted of doctoring a FISA application document in order to deceive the federal court into granting surveillance over an innocent but framed Carter Page.

FBI chief counsel James A. Baker, likewise Washington-based, allegedly was deeply involved in trying to shop the spurious Steele dossier to the media on the eve of the 2016 election.

In general, the Washington FBI sought to warp both the 2016 and 2020 elections and might arguably have affected either outcome. Besides finding Hillary Clinton likely culpable and then improperly exonerating her, later in 2020, the FBI sat tight and silent on the Hunter Biden laptop after authenticating it as genuine.

Yet almost at the same time, kindred ex-intelligence authorities—the now notorious “51 former intelligence officials” —rounded up by former CIA interim director Mike Morrell at the prompt of then Biden aide and soon-to-be Secretary of State Antony Blinken—brazenly lied to the public that the laptop was a likely creation of Russian intelligence.

This disinformation campaign, launched by the 51 “former” intelligence agents, included some who were still on the federal payroll as contractors. Their intent was to arm Joe Biden in the upcoming October 2020 presidential debate with the lie that the incriminating laptop (again confirmed in secret by the FBI as genuine) was fabricated by the Russians. And the ruse worked perfectly in deceiving the American people on the eve of the election.

Note as well that the FBI embedded agents in social media concerns like Facebook and Twitter to partner in censoring news by deeming it “misinformation” and “disinformation.” Yet, in truth, their jobs in the so-called “Twitter Files” scandal were better defined as suppressing any news considered problematic to the then-2020 Biden campaign.

Many FBI agents later rotated over to high-paying social media companies after their collaboration, among them former FBI general counsel Baker, who was then subsequently fired by the new owner of Twitter, Elon Musk.

The list of ethical, moral, and legal misadventures at the top-heavy Washington FBI office could be easily expanded.

But suffice to say, the closure of the J. Edgar Hoover building and the dispersal of the toxic Washington-centric FB hierarchy is welcome news.

Hopefully, this historic closure will also mark the end of the most sordid and decade-long chapter in the history of a once-great agency.

Since December's Trump-optimism-driven surge in Leading Economic Indicators (the first since last February), The Conference Board's headline index has decelerated rapidly with April data released today plunging 1.0% MoM - the biggest drop since March 2023...

Source: Bloomberg

Once again, Consumer Sentiment (cough UMich Democrats) and Stock Prices were the biggest negative contributors, while New Manufacturing orders (hard data) and Credit were the biggest positive contributors...

Source: Bloomberg

That dragged the total index level down to its lowest since February 2016...

Source: Bloomberg

“The U.S. LEI registered its largest monthly decline since March 2023, when many feared the US was headed into recession, which did not ultimately materialize,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

“Most components of the index deteriorated. Notably, consumers’ expectations have become continuously more pessimistic each month since January 2025, while the contribution of building permits and average working hours in manufacturing turned negative in April. 

Widespread weaknesses were also present when looking at six-month trends among the LEI’s components, resulting in a warning signal for growth. 

However, while the six-month growth rate of the LEI went deeper into negative territory, it did not fall enough to trigger the recession signal. 

The Conference Board currently forecasts US real GDP to grow by 1.6% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, with the bulk of the impact of tariffs likely to hit the economy in Q3.

Source: Bloomberg

So the economy is doomed (ish) because stocks and sentiment are down... because investors are pricing in a doomed economy...? 

Perhaps the word 'leading' in this index is misleading...

Update (1335ET): Confirming the optimistic readout from the Kremlin, President Trump just posted on TruthSocial stating that his call with Putin "went very well." (emphasis ours)

Just completed my two hour call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. 

I believe it went very well. 

Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War. 

The conditions for that will be negotiated between the two parties, as it can only be, because they know details of a negotiation that nobody else would be aware of. 

The tone and spirit of the conversation were excellent. If it wasn’t, I would say so now, rather than later. 

Russia wants to do largescale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic “bloodbath” is over, and I agree. 

There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth. Its potential is UNLIMITED. Likewise, Ukraine can be a great beneficiary on Trade, in the process of rebuilding its Country. 

Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will begin immediately. 

I have so informed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, President Emmanuel Macron, of France, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, of Italy, Chancellor Friedrich Merz, of Germany, and President Alexander Stubb, of Finland, during a call with me, immediately after the call with President Putin. 

The Vatican, as represented by the Pope, has stated that it would be very interested in hosting the negotiations. 

Let the process begin!

And cue the European leaders and US neocons fuming over the potential for peace.

*  *  *

Update(1300ET): Presidents Trump and Putin have ended their phone call, which lasted for more than two hours, according to RIA. This suggests some heavy lifting was done regarding peace in Ukraine, and restoring Washington-Moscow relations. Trump had reportedly phoned Zelensky just prior to speaking with Putin. It appears an overall 'positive' development, also given the emerging wire headlines:

• PUTIN CALLED HIS CONVERSATION WITH TRUMP USEFUL: TASS
• PUTIN: MEMORANDUM WITH UKRAINE MAY INCLUDE TRUCE TERMS: TASS
• RUSSIA READY TO WORK WITH UKRAINE ON FUTURE PEACE DEAL: TASS
• PUTIN SAYS HIS CONVERSATION WITH TRUMP WAS VERY MEANINGFUL: IFX
• PUTIN SAYS TRUCE IS POSSIBLE IF CERTAIN AGREEMENTS REACHED:TASS

But this Putin reference to "certain agreements" or conditions being reached will be the sticking point. Zelensky has repeatedly made clear "this is Ukraine's land" when it comes to the annexed four eastern territories and Crimea.

Very likely, Putin pressed this point with Trump - that Zelensky is refusing any level of compromise (which is precisely what Kiev is currently accusing Moscow of doing). 

As we await the call readouts from both sides, Vice President JD Vance's latest remarks upon returning to the US from Rome lay out where things stand:

JD Vance:

There's fundamental mistrust between Russia and the West. It's one of the things Trump thinks is frankly stupid, and we should be able to move beyond the mistakes that have been made in the past, but that takes two to tango. pic.twitter.com/o0UU9aSBOu

Meanwhile...

Guys, we are again allowed to admit that NATO's open door to Ukraine and integration with Kyiv was one of the causes of the war. Also that Russia is shaping its forces to counter NATO expansion. pic.twitter.com/jQZQ6Ca9CD

* * *

President Trump is expected to hold a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, followed by a call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky - after they were first announced Saturday.

Writing in all caps, the president posted over the weekend to Truth Social, "The subjects of the call with be, stopping the 'bloodbath' that is killing, on average, more than 5000 Russian and Ukrainian soldiers a week, and trade."

He continued in the statement by saying "hopefully it will be a productive day, a ceasefire will take place, and this very violent war, a war that should have never happened, will end." His highly optimistic note ended with "God bless us all!!!" - again written in all caps.

Via AFP

Trump has further indicated he'll be in contact with "various" NATO leaders related to these ceasefire efforts, coming on heels of the Friday meeting between Russian and Ukrainian delegations - the first such direct engagement since efforts at talks ceased within the opening months of 2022 and the war's start.

The NY Times has previewed:

The call, which Mr. Trump said would take place at 10 a.m. Eastern, would be the third known phone conversation between the two men since the American president’s second term began. The first two, which took place in February and March, were celebrated in Moscow as signs of weakening Western resolve to isolate and punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

And the Kremlin issued the following Monday:

"The conversation is important, taking into account the negotiations held in Istanbul," Peskov said. "As for the talks, we [in the Kremlin] have already said everything we could, we underscored the basic points," he added. "We will now wait for it. We will give the maximum information possible based on the results of the conversation," he stated.

There was little concrete which came out of the meeting, other than a new POW swap - which is to involve 1,000 captives returned on either side - and declarations that each side is open to meeting a gain.

Still, the warring sides are far apart in terms of conditions, with Zelensky having reasserted on Friday, "In all discussions – and I emphasize this – and this is my unwavering position – we do not legally recognize any of our temporarily occupied territories as Russian. This is the Ukrainian land."

Just ahead of the Putin-Zelensky calls at the White House on Monday:

.@zerohedge reporter gets the first question during today's White House press briefing.@cosgrove_iv does not disappoint: question about financing foreign wars, comments on the "Clinton body count," and further probing of the Jeffrey Epstein files. pic.twitter.com/YjXQBpNAK9

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio revealed the US administration's thinking on how things are really going at this point. He reiterated to CBS News’ ‘Face the Nation’ on Sunday that the White House will not tolerate endless negotiations which simply drag the war and killing on further.

"On the one hand, we’re trying to achieve peace and end a very bloody, costly, and destructive war. So there’s some element of patience that is required," he began by acknowledging.

"On the other hand, we don’t have time to waste. There are a lot of other things happening in the world that we also need to be paying attention to. So we don’t want to be involved in this process of just endless talks. There has to be some progress, some movement forward," he then emphasized.

The US is currently examining competing ceasefire proposals offered by each side. "If those papers have ideas on them that are realistic and rational, then I think we know we’ve made progress," he said.

The following is reportedly among Moscow's top list of demands, which can be described as maximalist (at least from the West's perspective), per a recent Bloomberg report:

• Ukraine agreeing to neutral status regarding NATO
• No foreign troops in Ukraine
• No nuclear weapons in Ukraine
• De-facto recognition of Crimea and lost eastern territories as now Russia's
• Withdrawal of Kiev forces from these territories before a ceasefire takes effect

But Ukraine has rejected the Kremlin's demand of de-facto recognizing the loss of its territories. Zelensky has time and again vowed to fight on, despite mounting losses and serious manpower issues. 

Getting Trump on side is not about Russia. UK/EU want the US bogged down in Ukraine, which means US bogged down in Europe, and US money continues to flow. They don't care about Ukraine, they care about the US remaining in Europe, invested in the globalist agenda.

They… pic.twitter.com/p3mM1T7hDc

The White House is likely to latch on to anything positive regarding these talks that it can; however, President Trump has clearly been exerting pressure for more speedy resolution, and is growing impatient.

The Europeans are ready to slap more sanctions on Moscow, and Washington has also warned that this would essentially be plan B if Russia doesn't cooperate. But Russia's fresh maximalist demands will be a hard sell.

*  *  *

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The Department of Defense has directed commanders to identify service members with a history of gender dysphoria who have not come forward under a new policy that bans transgender troops.

“Commanders who are aware of Service members in their units with gender dysphoria, a history of gender dysphoria, or symptoms consistent with gender dysphoria will direct individualized medical record reviews of such Service members to confirm compliance with medical standards” under the military’s readiness program, Jules W. Hurst III, a Pentagon official, wrote in a memorandum dated May 15.

President Donald Trump has said that people who express a “false ‘gender identity’” cannot meet the standards for military service, and defense officials later promulgated a new policy that bars troops who have or are experiencing gender dysphoria from serving.

At least some of the troops with gender dysphoria, which refers to when people believe they’re a gender that does not match their sex, are undergoing or have completed transgender procedures in an attempt to alter their gender..

The Supreme Court recently stayed a district court order that had been blocking the policy. 

Officials said on May 8 that about 1,000 members have come forward to identify themselves as having gender dysphoria.

Active-duty troops have until June 6 to identify themselves as being unable to serve due to gender dysphoria. The deadline is July 7 for reserves.

During that period, military departments will seek to identify affected troops who choose not to identify themselves, a senior defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters in a call on May 15.

“Commanders who are aware of service members in their units who meet the criteria of this policy will direct individualized medical record reviews. Any individuals who meet the criteria of the policy and do not voluntarily identify themselves and go through the voluntary separation process will be processed involuntarily unless they are granted a waiver,” the official added later.

Troops who are involuntarily separated may lose certain benefits that they would receive if they come forward, according to the Department of Defense.

An estimated 4,200 troops have gender dysphoria. The force has about 2.1 million troops.

The military uses its readiness program to make sure troops are qualified and fit for duty. Medical evaluations are done through the program periodically, including an annual health screening.

When asked about concerns that commanders could abuse the process, the official told reporters in the call that leaders are confident in commanders’ exercising their discretion and protecting the privacy of troop health information.

“Any negative action that they would take to one of their assigned service members that would be retaliatory would be completely unacceptable regardless of whether it concerned this policy or any other policy,” the official added later.

Troops who are discharged under the new policy are eligible for up to $125,000 in separation payments, depending on their rank and how long they’ve been serving.

The FBI has identified the suspect in Saturday's powerful car-bombing of a Palm Springs fertility clinic as 25-year-old Guy Edward Bartkus, a man who held an odd set of beliefs about humanity and other sentient life forms. Officials say Bartkus was fatally torn to shreds, and classified his attack as an act of terrorism.

The FBI says Bartkus, who embraced "pro-mortalism" and "anti-natalism," tried to livestream the bombing

While investigators are still working to fully confirm it was the work of Bartkus, they believe he foreshadowed his attack in a manifesto he posted to the internet, along with a 30-minute audio recording. Bartkus was an adherent to a strange philosophy called "pro-mortalism," which encourages the extinction of humanity and other sentient beings to preclude the suffering associated with life. Hand in hand with that belief goes Bartkus' embrace of "anti-natalism," which argues that nobody should have children -- a belief that bears directly on his targeting of a fertility clinic.  

Doing his part to advance pro-mortalism: This hearty slab o' beef is believed to be the torso of Bartkus (via 

In the half-hour-long audio file saved under the title "pre," the calmly-speaking and occasionally-chuckling narrator believed to be Bartkus says: 

“Ooookay, I figured I would just make a recording explaining why I’ve decided to bomb an [in vitro fertilization] building or clinic. Basically, it just comes down to I’m angry that I exist and that, you know, nobody got my consent to bring me here. And I know what you're going to say: 'How could we have gotten your consent, because you didn't exist, blah, blah, blah.' Exactly the point. There's no way you can get consent to bring someone here, so don't fucking do it."         ...   

"Obviously, I'm very against [IVF]. It's extremely wrong. I mean, these are people who are having kids after they've sat there and thought about it. How much more stupid can it get?...I guess you can make the argument 'well at least they're thinking about it'...Yeah, that is something I guess, but at the same time, again, you still can't get the [infant's] goddam consent, you're not getting around that argument...basically, I'm anti-life. And IVF is kind of the epitome of pro-life ideology, so fuck IVF, fuck IVF clinics, and fuck the people that work for them, quite frankly."

BOMBING: This is an audio recording of Guy Edward Bartkus' manifesto. Bartkus was the Palm Springs Fertility Clinic Bomber. pic.twitter.com/WNtDgYGHVo

The audio recording also likens giving birth to raping an unconscious woman, as neither the woman nor the unborn child is capable of granting consent. The speaker says he has some reluctance about the term "pro-mortalism," because some might misinterpret it as being sadistically "pro-dying;" he emphasizes that it means he's "pro-non-existence." The narrator argues that "parents are the real killers" because "they're the ones making you exist in the first place, which then guarantees a death." He says pro-mortalists encourage that guaranteed death to happen sooner than later so the individual "experience[s] less of life's bullshit."  

The manifesto referred to the homicide of his best friend, someone identified as "Sophie." It seems Sophie shared Bartkus' beliefs: Investigators say she convinced her boyfriend to shoot her in the head as she slept. He was charged with second-degree murder.  “We had agreed… if one of us died, the other would probably follow,” the manifesto read. 

Investigators comb through the wreckage at the American Reproductive Centers clinic in Palm Springs (Reuters / David Swanson)

In its initial report on the bombing, the New York Times used four paragraphs to allude to the possibility that the bombing was the work of conservatives, noting that "many Christian conservatives who oppose abortion also oppose I.V.F. because they do not support the loss of embryos, which they consider people." Bartkus clearly didn't match the Times' roundabout suggestion. However, social media users trying to tether Bartkus to the "extreme left" seem almost as baseless. Indeed, there's no indication yet of Bartkus being aligned with any mainstream political movements or candidates.

He was dismembered when a powerful bomb in his silver 2010 Ford Fusion exploded around 11am local time Saturday -- when the American Reproductive Centers clinic was closed; four bystanders suffered minor injuries and none are hospitalized. While the clinic suffered major damage to its offices and patient-consultation spaces, the IVF lab and its stored embryos went unscathed. Investigators say Bartkus intended to livestream the explosion, going so far as to set up a tripod and camera. However, the video never uploaded to the web. 

Bartkus, who lived about 60 miles away in Twentynine Palms, had been coping with depression and some sort of personal relationship struggles, according to law enforcement sources that spoke to NBC News. It's not yet been reported if, like so many other mentally-troubled people who lash out violently, Bartkus was taking SSRI antidepressant drugs. Neighbors told the Los Angeles Times they hadn't seen anyone in his residence for months. “It’s a bit unsettling to know our neighbor was doing something so evil," said Jeanette Hogan, who lives directly across the street. 

Neighbors were evacuated when police executed a search warrant at Bartkus' home in Twentynine Palms (Gina Ferazzi via

The suspect's 75-year-old father, Richard Bartkus, told KTLA 5 News that he hadn't seen his son in 11 years. He described him as having been a "smart, good kid" who'd set fire to the family home as he played with matches at an unspecified age. “After he had burned the house down, he started changing a little bit, he’d light fires,” his father said, choking back tears. “I was too strict for him, so he wanted to stay with Mom until the divorce came through. Mom was lenient.” He said his son was fascinated by making model rockets and smoke bombs -- a fascination he apparently put to work in building a powerful bomb used against the fertility clinic.  

Three weeks after widespread power grid failures across Portugal and Spain, triggered by unreliable solar and wind power, Germany appears to be sharply recalibrating its energy stance. 

In a notable policy shift, the new conservative government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz has reversed its longstanding opposition to nuclear power. The move reflects a growing understanding in Berlin that overreliance on unreliable solar and wind power generation poses serious risks to economic stability and energy security. The shift also signals a broader return to common-sense energy policymaking in Europe, with nuclear power increasingly viewed as critical in France in achieving reliable, low-carbon power generation.

The Financial Times reports that German officials have informed Paris they will no longer oppose French efforts to have nuclear energy recognized as equivalent to renewables in EU legislation. This marks a significant policy shift, considering former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had firmly opposed treating nuclear power on the same level as solar and wind in the EU's framework for achieving net zero by 2050.

"The Germans are telling us: we will be very pragmatic on the issue of nuclear power," an anonymous French diplomat told the FT, which was involved in the talks with the Germans. The person said this means that "all the biases against nuclear power, which still remain here and there in EU legislation, will be removed."

"This will be a sea-change policy shift," said a German official.

Guntram Wolff, a senior fellow at think-tank Bruegel, said, "It's a welcome rapprochement that will make the topic of energy easier in the EU," adding, "Politically, Merz is also thinking about the nuclear umbrella."

Berlin's reversal on nuclear power comes three weeks after solar and wind collapsed the power grids across Portugal and Spain. 

Europe's dangerous and radical shift to unreliable net-zero energy has been nothing short of a disaster and an embarrassment for the far-left liberals high in their castles in Brussels. 

Merz has clearly recognized the urgent need to reverse degrowth net-zero policies. He also understands the strategic urgency of revitalizing Franco-German cooperation—a prerequisite for unlocking stalled EU-level decision-making under former Chancellor Scholz.

"When France and Germany agree, it is much easier for Europe to move forward," said Lars-Hendrik Röller, a professor at Berlin-based ESMT business school who was chief economic adviser to former Chancellor Angela Merkel, adding, "While several challenges remain, I believe this issue will be solved."

Last week, FT obtained a letter sent to the European Commission by ministers from 12 European member states explaining that it was "imperative" that Brussels acknowledge the "complementary nature of nuclear and renewable energy sources."

The new Franco-German policy shift on energy is critical for Europe to get its house in order, considering NatGas prices have surged since the Ukraine-Russia war, making manufacturing uncompetitive on global markets because inputs have driven up prices of end products (such as automobiles). Solar and wind trends have also created instability in the power grid, which is a national security threat.

It's encouraging to see that Germany has finally acknowledged what has long been clear: a stable, reliable path to net-zero requires nuclear power. ZeroHedge readers have been well ahead of this theme since December 2020. More details here...

Despte all the doomsaying and blame-scaping following Moody's downgrade late on Friday night, the market has well and truly shrugged off the FUD (for now).

US equity markets have ripped higher from the cash open with The Dow erasing all of the losses sine Friday's cash close...

2Y Treasury yields are now lower on the day also...

As we detailed here and here, this is not the end of the world.

As DB's Jim Reid writes in his weekly preview, "in terms of what the market has been through in recent weeks we could all do with a lie down and there are some hopes of that this week given the scarcity of front line data. However as we know the headlines will keep coming, especially with regards to trade."

Sure enough, it‘s likely that fiscal developments in Washington will take center stage with the House expected to vote on its reconciliation package this week just as Moody's removed the US's last remaining triple-A rating late on Friday night. As DB's economists discussed last week, though the specific components of additional tax cuts on top of the TCJA extension differed from what they had previously outlined, the JCT score of the Ways and Means mark-up was largely in line with top-line deficit assumptions. Assuming House Republicans are able to resolve their outstanding policy disagreements and vote on the tax package this week, the Senate will then start to mark up the bill, where even more policy disagreements await. One thing stands out though, and that is that at this stage there are no signs of any serious deficit restraint.

The flash global PMIs for May released on Thursday will be the main data focal point this week given that it should fully cover a period of trade uncertainty. European numbers are expected to edge up with US numbers broadly flat. Elsewhere inflation in Canada (tomorrow), the UK (Wednesday) and Japan (Friday - preview here) will be of note. Other things to watch are the RBA decision tomorrow, where DB expect a 25bps cut (preview here), the account of the April ECB decision, the German Ifo and US jobless claims, all on Thursday. 

This week’s jobless claims corresponds to payrolls survey week so it will allow banks to refine their current forecast for May. The full day-by-day week ahead is at the end as usual but there’s not a lot of high profile releases. There are though plenty of central bank speakers and these are also highlighted in that calendar. Many are speaking at the Atlanta Fed's annual Financial Markets Conference in Amelia Island, Florida which starts today through to Thursday. Other things to note are the UK-EU summit will be in London today. Then tomorrow, G7 finance ministers and central bankers convene in Canada (through May 22) and the EU's foreign and defence ministers meet in Brussels.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday May 19

• Data: US April leading index, China April retail sales, industrial production, home prices, property investment, Japan March Tertiary industry index
• Central banks: Fed's Bostic, Jefferson, Williams, Kashkari and Logan speak, ECB's Muller speaks
• Earnings: Trip.com, Ryanair
• Other: UK-EU summit in London

Tuesday May 20

• Data: US May Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, China 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates, Germany April PPI, Italy March current account balance, ECB March current account, Eurozone March construction output, May consumer confidence, Canada April CPI, Denmark Q1 GDP
• Central banks: Fed's Bostic, Barkin, Collins and Musalem speak, ECB's Wunsch, Cipollone and Knot speak, BoE's Pill speaks, RBA decision
• Earnings: Home Depot, Palo Alto Networks, Vodafone
• Other: G7 finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Canada (through May 22), EU's foreign and defence ministers meeting in Brussels

Wednesday May 21

• Data: UK April CPI, RPI, March house price index, Japan April trade balance
• Central banks: Fed's Hammack, Daly, Bostic, Barkin and Bowman speak, ECB's Lane and Guindos speak
• Earnings: TJX, Medtronic, Snowflake, Target, Baidu, SSE, XPeng, Marks & Spencer
• Auctions: US 20-yr Bonds ($16bn)

Thursday May 22

• Data: US, UK, Japan, Germany, France and the Eurozone May flash PMIs, US April Chicago Fed national activity index, existing home sales, May Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, initial jobless claims, UK April public finances, Japan March core machine orders, Germany May Ifo survey, France May business confidence, April retail sales, Canada April industrial product price index, raw materials price index
• Central banks: Fed's Williams speaks, ECB account of the April meeting, Holzmann, Vujcic, Elderson, Guindos, Escriva and Nagel speak, BoJ's Noguchi speaks, BoE's Pill, Breeden and Dhingra speak
• Earnings: Intuit, Analog Devices, Workday, Generali, Lenovo
• Auctions: US 10yr TIPS (reopening, $18bn)

Friday May 23

• Data: US April new home sales, May Kansas City Fed services activity, UK May GfK consumer confidence, April retail sales, Japan April national CPI, France May consumer confidence, Canada March retail sales
• Central banks: ECB's Lane speaks

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman notes that the key economic data releases this week are initial jobless claims on Thursday and new home sales on Friday. There are many speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including Chair Powell, Vice Chair Jefferson, and Governors Kugler and Cook.

Monday, May 19

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
• 08:30 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will give welcome remarks at the Atlanta Fed's "Financial Intermediation In Transition" conference in Fernandina Beach, Florida.
• 08:45 AM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will give keynote remarks at the Atlanta Fed's "Financial Intermediation In Transition" conference. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will moderate. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On May 14, Jefferson said that he will be "watching for signs that the labor market could cool as tariff increases," and that tariffs "are likely to interrupt progress on disinflation and generate at least a temporary rise in inflation." He later said that "With the increased risks to both sides of our mandate, I believe that the current stance of monetary policy is well positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments."
• 08:45 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will speak in a moderated conversation at an event organized by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Q&A is expected. On April 11, Williams said, "The current modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy is entirely appropriate given the solid labor market and inflation still above our 2 percent goal." He added that the current stance of policy "gives us the opportunity to assess incoming data and developments and ultimately positions us well to adjust to changing circumstances that affect the achievement of our dual mandate goals."
• 01:15 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will give remarks and will moderate a panel titled "The increasing role of nonbank institutions in the Treasury and money markets" at the Atlanta Fed's "Financial Intermediation In Transition" conference. Speech text is expected. On April 10, Logan said, "To sustainably achieve both of our dual-mandate goals, it will be important to keep any tariff-related price increases from fostering more persistent inflation. For now, I believe the stance of monetary policy is well positioned."
• 01:30 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will take part in a moderated Q&A at the Minnesota Young American Leaders Program at the University of Minnesota. On April 22, Kashkari said that the two sides of the Fed's dual mandate are "in tension right now because of the nature of this policy change that’s hitting the economy." He also said that "There’s a very logical argument to be made that a tariff is a one-time increase in prices and then inflation should be low going forward. The challenge is that we’ve had four years of high inflation. So, with that backdrop, are we running the risk of allowing inflation expectations to become unanchored?"
• 02:45 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will be interviewed on Bloomberg TV.

Tuesday, May 20

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
• 09:00 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will give welcome remarks at the Atlanta Fed's "Financial Intermediation In Transition" conference.
• 09:00 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will give a speech at the Richmond Fed's Investing in Rural America Conference. Speech text is expected.
• 09:30 AM Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Susan Collins will host a Fed Listens event and offer brief remarks. Speech text is expected. On April 10, Collins said "Maintaining the current monetary policy stance seems appropriate for the time being, as we learn more about the scope of changes in government policy and their impact on the economy." She added that "It may still be appropriate to lower the federal funds rate later this year. But renewed price pressures could delay further policy normalization."
• 01:00 PM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak on the economy and monetary policy at the Economic Club of Minnesota. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On May 9, Musalem said, "It is possible that higher inflation will be short lived and mostly concentrated in the second half of 2025, [but]... It is equally likely that inflation could prove to be more persistent." He added that "The risks of higher and more persistent inflation are currently elevated because: the pre-tariff starting point for inflation is above target; the recent period of elevated inflation likely has raised the public’s sensitivity to it; some measures of inflation expectations have risen; and tariffs apply broadly to intermediate inputs, prompting global supply chains’ rearrangement."
• 05:00 PM Fed Governor Kugler speaks: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will give a commencement address at the Spring 2025 Berkeley Economics Commencement Ceremony. Speech text is expected. On May 12, Kugler said that, as a result of the effects of tariffs on the economy, "Ultimately, I see the U.S. as likely to experience lower growth and higher inflation."
• 07:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC non-voter) and San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speak: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will participate in a panel discussion moderated by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic at the Atlanta Fed's "Financial Intermediation In Transition" conference. On April 24, Hammack said, "I think it’s too soon [to make policy decisions]... We want to make sure we’re moving in the right direction, rather than moving quickly in the wrong direction." She added that "If we have clear and convincing data by June, then I think you’ll see the committee move, if we know which way is the right way to move at that point." On May 14, Daly said that policy is in a "good position" to respond to the evolving outlook, adding that when considering the path of policy, "patience is the word of the day."

Wednesday, May 21

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
• 12:15 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) and Fed Governor Bowman speak: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will participate in a Fed Listens event.

Thursday, May 22

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 17 (GS 230k, consensus 228k, last 229k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 10 (last 1,881k)
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, May preliminary (consensus 49.8, last 50.2); S&P Global US services PMI, May preliminary (consensus 51.1, last 50.8)
• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, April (GS -2.0%, consensus +2.7%, last -5.9%)
• 02:00 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks; New York Fed President John Williams will give keynote remarks at a New York Fed event. Speech text and Q&A are expected.

Friday, May 23

• 09:35 AM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voter) and Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC voter) speak: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will participate in a fireside chat on the Fed and the economy. Q&A is expected.
• 10:00 AM New home sales, April (GS -3.0%, consensus -4.7%, last +7.4%)
• 12:00 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech on financial stability at the Seventh Annual Women in Macro Conference. Speech text is expected. On May 9, Cook said, "I expect to see a drag on productivity in the near term stemming from the recent changes to trade policy and the related uncertainty [because]... uncertainty around trade policy is likely to reduce business investment going forward; protectionist trade policies, while intended to support domestic industries, may inadvertently lead to a less competitive environment, if they prop up less efficient firms; and any supply-chain disruptions resulting from the policy changes would make production slower and less efficient."

Source: BofA, Goldman