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Moscow has called the move “blasphemous” and “disrespectful” due to Kiev’s open glorification of Nazism

Ukrainian troops will take part in the World War II Victory Day parade in London on May 8 at the invitation of the UK government, the British Ministry of Defense has announced. Moscow has condemned the move as “blasphemous” and “disrespectful” due to Kiev’s open glorification of Nazism.

Victory in Europe Day (VE Day) is celebrated in the West on May 8 to commemorate Nazi Germany’s surrender in 1945.

In a post on X on Saturday, the UK MOD said Ukrainian troops will take part in a military procession commemorating the event alongside 1,000 British servicemen. The ministry claimed that Kiev’s participation in the event “reminds us that Ukraine is now at freedom’s front line.” UK Defense Secretary John Healey described it as “fitting” that Ukrainian troops will be present at the event.

Moscow has condemned London’s decision. “Inviting followers of neo-Nazi elements to Victory Day celebrations is not just disrespectful to those British veterans who gave their lives during World War II. It is blasphemy,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Saturday.

Commemorations of WWII-era nationalist figures linked to Nazi Germany have been common in Ukraine. Ukrainian nationalists hold annual torchlight marches in Kiev, Lviv, and other cities in honor of Stepan Bandera, the leader of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN), which collaborated with the Nazis and took part in the massacre of more than 100,000 Poles, Jews, Russians, and Soviet-aligned Ukrainians.

Throughout the conflict with Russia, Ukrainian troops have on numerous occasions been filmed displaying Nazi symbols, including patches of SS units and swastikas. Italy’s Rai News 24 apologized last year after a journalist interviewed a Ukrainian fighter wearing a cap with the emblem of the ‘Leibstandarte Adolf Hitler’ SS division.

Germany previously expelled seven Ukrainian soldiers undergoing military training in the country because they were wearing Nazi symbols.

READ MORE: German state media shows Nazi insignia from Ukrainian boot camp for kids

Ukraine’s notorious Azov unit, a neo-Nazi formation established in 2014 and later integrated into the National Guard, has been accused of war crimes and was designated a terrorist organization by Russia in 2022. Although the original Azov Battalion was defeated in the 2022 Battle of Mariupol, co-founder Andrey Biletsky launched the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade under the Azov banner in 2023, which remains active.

Russia has repeatedly warned of a Nazi revival in Ukraine and has accused Kiev of embracing neo-Nazi ideology while whitewashing WWII collaborators. President Vladimir Putin listed “denazification” among the goals of Russia’s military operation against the Kiev regime, along with demilitarization and neutrality.

One of the world’s, oldest and most dangerous conflicts went critical this past week as nuclear armed India and Pakistan traded threats of war. The Kashmir conflict is the oldest one before the UN.

In my book `War at the Top of the World’ I warned that the confrontation over Kashmir, the beautiful mountain state claimed by both Islamabad and Delhi, could unleash a nuclear war that could kill millions and pollute the planet.

After three wars and many clashes, it seemed the two bad neighbors had allowed the Kashmir dispute to fade into the background as their relations slightly improved.

Then came the murder last week of 26 Indian tourists at Pahalgam, a Kashmir beauty spot, by Muslim insurgents. Kashmir was roughly divided between India and Pakistan in 1947. The larger part of Kashmir was annexed by Indian troops as the entire region was scourged by massacres and rapine.

As a result, India’s portion of Kashmir became the only Muslim majority state in India. Kashmiri Muslims have waged a bloody struggle since the 1980’s to leave India or join Pakistan. Today, 500,000 Indian troops and an equal number of paramilitary police garrison the restive province.

I’ve been under fire three times on the Line of Control that separates the two Kashmirs and at 15,000 feet altitude on the remote Siachen Glacier. I was with Pakistani President Musharraf after he tried to seize Kargil which lies above Kashmir.

The outside world cared little about the India-Pakistan conflict until both Delhi and Islamabad acquired nuclear weapons. Their ‘hatred of brothers’, as I called it, pits fanatical Hindus against equally ardent Muslims who share centuries of hatred and are being whipped up by politicians.

Right wing Hindu militants in Delhi demand reunification of pre-1947 ‘Mother India.’ Pakistan has about 251 million citizens; India has 1.4 billion and a much larger GDP. Pakistan would be unable to resist a full-bore attack by India’s huge armed forces. So, it relies on tactical nuclear weapons to compensate for the dangerous imbalance.

But both sides nuclear arsenals are on hair-trigger alert and pointed at the subcontinent’s major cities. A decade ago, the US think tank Rand Corp estimated an India-Pakistan nuclear exchange would kill three million immediately and injure 100 million. Such damage would pollute most of the region’s major riverine water sources all the way down to Southeast Asia.

Given the region’s poor communications and often obsolete technology, nuclear arsenals must be kept on high alert lest they be surprised and decapitated by a sudden missile attack from across the border. Accidents are frequent. Anyone who has traveled across India knows about this.

India’s right-wing politicians are loudly demanding revenge strikes against Pakistan as PM Modi stirs up anti-Muslim hatred in India – following the example set in America by his new ally, President Donald Trump. Pakistan is calling on its key ally, China, for support. India and China are at scimitars drawn over their poorly demarcated Himalayan border –another legacy of British imperialism.

India claims Pakistan’s intelligence service ISI was behind the Kashmir attacks. Pakistan denies Indian charges. I’m unsure. A decade ago, as a war correspondent, I joined Kashmiri mujahidin guerillas operating against Indian forces. At the time, Pakistan was quietly supporting the insurgents. I was extensively briefed on Kashmir by ISI officials.

Today, it’s uncertain if Pakistan is involved, as India claims. India, for its part, also supports rebel groups in Pakistani Baluchistan and around Karachi. India routinely commits atrocities against Muslim Kashmiri citizens. Muslim Kashmiris have attacked local Hindus and Sikhs.
India just threatened to shut off the rivers leading from Tibet that nurture Pakistan’s wheat farmers. Pakistan threatens to breach any Indian dams on the Indue River and its tributaries with nuclear weapons.

Everyone wants beautiful, green Kashmir.

Reprinted with permission from EricMargolis.com.

Vatican firefighters have installed the all-important chimney on the roof of the Sistine Chapel ahead of next week’s conclave to select a new pope.

The temporary chimney, from which black smoke issues until a pope is elected, at which point white smoke pours forth, was installed on 2 May.

The installation of the chimney is a key step in the lead-up to the conclave, along with officers from the Swiss Guards and the Vatican Gendarmerie, the sovereign nation’s tiny police force, sweeping the famous frescoed chapel for listening devices and bugs, reports the Daily Telegraph.

“They are setting up chairs, benches, tables, the chimney and the stoves, they are removing cameras, they are removing telephones – any electronic devices,” said Luciano Gagliano, a senior manager for the Vatican Museums, which are adjacent to the Sistine Chapel.

“The Sistine Chapel is completely isolated for the entire duration of the conclave. It is off limits for everyone except the cardinals and restricted members of Vatican staff. Everyone has to swear to keep it secret for their entire life. If you reveal one word – excommunication.”

A group of 133 cardinals, eligible to vote because they are under the age of 80, will enter the Sistine Chapel on Wednesday, 7 May, for the first round of voting in the conclave.

From Thursday onwards, there will be four rounds of voting each day – two in the morning and two in the evening.

The proceedings will be conducted in Latin, the official language of the Holy See. Even cashpoints in the Vatican have a Latin option, notes the Telegraph.

After every two rounds, the cardinals’ ballot papers, on which they write the name of the person they want elected pope, are burned in one of two special stoves that are being installed inside the Sistine Chapel.

Black smoke billowing from the chimney will indicate that no decision has been reached – a two-thirds majority is required. Once white smoke emerges it signals that the next leader of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics has been chosen.

In the past, the Telegraph notes, the colour of the smoke has been ambiguously grey, so cartridges containing chemicals are added. Black smoke will be created by cartridges containing potassium perchlorate, anthracene – a component of coal tar – and sulphur. White smoke will be created using a cartridge packed with potassium chlorate, lactose and chloroform resin.

The first of the two stoves being installed, dates back to 1939 and will be used to burn the cardinals’ ballot papers. The second stove is relatively new, dating to 2005, and will be used to burn the cartridges that will produce either black or white smoke.

The potential length of the conclave is of increasing speculation. The last two were relatively swift, lasting two days, with Argentinian Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio chosen as pope after five rounds of voting.

But this time there is speculation the conclave could be much longer due to a combination of factors including the higher number of cardinals participating and the divergence of views regarding the direction that the Church should not take in the wake of Pope Francis’s reign.

RELATED: Could this be the longest conclave in modern history?

Photo: Firefighters install a temporary chimney on the roof of the Sistine Chapel, Vatican, 2 May 2025. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images.)

The post White smoke chimney installed at Sistine Chapel for conclave first appeared on Catholic Herald.

The post White smoke chimney installed at Sistine Chapel for conclave appeared first on Catholic Herald.

After riding a wave of criticism of Democrats for suppressing freedom of speech, President Trump has just put the quietus on Amazon, which had the audacity to contemplate including the price of Trump’s tariffs in its shopping carts.

Upon hearing of Amazon’s plan, Trump went ballistic, calling Amazon’s plan a “hostile and political act.” According to an article in Aljazeera, Trump telephoned Amazon founder Jeff Bezos to express his displeasure. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt even pulled the Red card, pointing out that “Reuters recently wrote [that] Amazon partnered with a Chinese propaganda arm.”

Alas, following the lead of major law firms and universities that have incurred Trump’s wrath, Amazon quickly capitulated, announcing that it would not share the tariff information with its buyers.

Trump was ecstatic, announcing “Jeff Bezos was very nice. He was terrific. He solved a problem very quickly and he did the right thing.”

The episode reminded me of what Lyndon Johnson did soon after being elevated to the presidency after the JFK assassination. According to Robert Caro’s biography of Johnson, there were two newspapers in Texas that were investigating Johnson’s official corruption. While he was vice-president, Johnson could do nothing about it. But as president, things were different. He picked up the phone, talked to the editor or publisher of both newspapers, and informed them in no uncertain terms that he wanted the investigations terminated. Johnson mentioned the possibility of IRS audits and the federal government’s regulatory powers.

Both newspapers knew that the president of the United States wielded the power to do very bad things to them. Both investigations were immediately shut down and never pursued again. Johnson, no doubt, was as ecstatic as Trump.

Of course, Trump wouldn’t have to mention the IRS or some federal regulatory agency or the possibility of some new congressional Internet law to Bezos. By now, everyone is fully aware of the power of any U.S. president to do very bad things to people through the overwhelming regulatory and tax powers of the U.S. government.

What was wrong with what Amazon was contemplating? Nothing. Nothing at all. Amazon was simply going to inform Amazon buyers of the truth about what Trump’s tariffs were costing them. If that isn’t an exercise of freedom of speech, I don’t know what is.

But Trump obviously does not want American buyers of goods and services to see how much money his tariffs are costing them. He obviously just wants them to see how much money his tariff tax is bringing into the federal government, as if that is something good.

Convinced that Amazon’s plan to disclose the truth about the cost of his tariffs to American consumers was a “hostile” act, Trump and his minions immediately went on the attack and quickly won their war against Amazon. In the process, by striking a harsh and effective blow against the fundamental, God-given right of freedom of speech, Trump was guilty of what he criticized Democrats for doing.

Reprinted with permission from Future of Freedom Foundation.

Officials have said the Abdali Weapon System, which has a range of 450km, is meant to safeguard Islamabad “against any aggression”

The Pakistani military has successfully carried out a test launch of a surface-to-surface missile called the Abdali Weapon System that has a reported range of 450km (280 miles), according to defense officials. The drill comes as tensions between Pakistan and its neighbor and regional archrival India remain elevated following the deadly terrorist attack in India’s Jammu and Kashmir.

In a statement on Saturday, the Pakistani Armed Forces announced that the launch carried out earlier in the day “was aimed at ensuring the operational readiness of troops and validating key technical parameters, including the missile’s advanced navigation system and enhanced maneuverability features.”

READ MORE: India claims Pakistan broke ceasefire again – media

Islamabad’s military top brass observed the exercise, while President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed confidence that Pakistan’s Strategic Forces are capable of ensuring “credible minimum deterrence and safeguard national security against any aggression.”

Hours before the test, the Hindustan Times reported that the Indian authorities perceived the planned Pakistani ballistic missile test as a “reckless act of provocation” and a “dangerous escalation” of Islamabad’s “hostile campaign” against New Delhi.

READ MORE: Tensions rise in India-Pakistan standoff: Key updates

Relations between Islamabad and New Delhi  sharply after terrorists gunned down 26 civilians in the Baisaran Valley, a popular tourist destination, on April 22.

READ MORE: India blocks high-level Pakistani social accounts amid tensions – media

The Resistance Front, believed to be tied to the Pakistani-based organization Lashkar-e-Taiba, initially claimed responsibility for the attack, though later reports indicated that the group had distanced itself from it. Indian police identified three suspects, claiming that two of them are Pakistani nationals.

In the wake of the attack, India accused its neighbor of aiding and abetting armed militants in their cross-border incursions – a claim Pakistan has vehemently denied.

The limited deployment of Pyongyang’s soldiers in Kursk managed to avoid a lot of potential pitfalls

On April 26, 2025, during a report to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov mentioned that, in Kursk Region, soldiers of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) operated alongside Russian servicemen.

“Soldiers and officers of the Korean People’s Army, fulfilling combat missions shoulder to shoulder with Russian servicemen, demonstrated high professionalism, resilience, courage, and heroism in battle while repelling the Ukrainian invasion,” Gerasimov stated.

The next day, the Central Military Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea issued a statement saying that “The victorious completion of the operation to liberate areas of the Kursk region is a triumph of justice over injustice, and a new chapter in history demonstrating a strong military alliance between the DPRK and Russia – the highest strategic level of allied and brotherly relations between the peoples of the two countries.”

It was noted that the decision to deploy DPRK military units was made by Kim Jong-un based on the provisions of the Russia-DPRK Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty.

On April 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin personally referenced the KPA fighters:

“The Russian people will never forget the feat of the Korean special forces fighters. We will always honor the Korean heroes who gave their lives for Russia, for our common freedom, on par with their Russian brothers-in-arms,” according to a statement on the Kremlin’s website. Putin thanked Kim Jong Un for deploying troops in support of the war with Ukraine, promising that their bilateral friendship, forged on the battlefield, would continue to strengthen.

South Korea and the United States immediately condemned the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia, calling it a violation of UN Security Council resolutions prohibiting military cooperation with Pyongyang. Seoul accused Pyongyang of mocking the international community and called for an immediate withdrawal of troops from Russia. A US State Department spokesperson blamed “North Korea” and other third countries for “perpetuating the Russia-Ukraine war,” adding that the deployment of DPRK troops to Russia and any Russian compensation in return must end.

As it happened

On June 19, 2024, Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un signed the Treaty on Comprehensive Partnership between the Russian Federation and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Article 4 of the treaty provided for the immediate military assistance by all available means in the event that “one of the parties finds itself in a state of war due to an armed attack by one or more states.” As emphasized by the Russian Foreign Ministry, this clause represented an “exclusively defensive position.” Although Western and South Korean media immediately began discussing the possibility of military action, the reference to a “state of war” implied a very specific definition of conflict.

In the early morning of August 6, 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine invaded Kursk Region, which altered the course of the Russian campaign and created the conditions for appealing to Pyongyang for assistance – the “core” territory of the Russian Federation had come under aggression.

On November 1, 2024, during negotiations in Moscow with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, DPRK Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui officially confirmed for the first time that Pyongyang was providing assistance to Moscow: “From the very beginning of the special military operation, the respected Comrade Chairman of State Affairs Kim Jong-un instructed us to unwaveringly and powerfully support and assist the Russian army and the Russian people in their sacred war, without regard to others.”

That same month, the treaty was ratified. It is believed that around this time, Kim Jong-un concluded that “the emerging wartime situation met the conditions for activating Article 4 of the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between the DPRK and the Russian Federation,” and decided to involve North Korea’s armed forces in the war, notifying the Russian side of his decision.

Shortly afterward, the first KPA fighters appeared at Russian training grounds. The exact number of military personnel remains unknown, but according to estimates by South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, over 10,000 troops were sent to Russia in the fall of 2024, and another 3,000 in the winter of 2025. Given the likelihood of rotation, this is not a very large number.

At the same time, starting at a certain point, the Russian authorities neither confirmed nor denied information about the presence of North Korean forces, consistently avoiding direct answers. Meanwhile, in Ukrainian propaganda, the topic of North Korea began to gain traction as early as the beginning of October.

On April 24, 2025, the DPRK’s leading newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, published an article dedicated to the sixth anniversary of the first summit between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un. The article stated that the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership had created a “guarantee for preserving peace and security on the Eurasian continent.” It further emphasized that “the DPRK and Russia are strengthening cooperation, jointly enhancing defense against the reckless conspiracies of hostile forces, and will build a new world together based on the new treaty.”

The piece asserted that “the vile attempts of hegemonic forces, which sought to plunge Eurasia into chaos through confrontation and war, are being thwarted. The changing era and the complex international situation clearly prove that developing strong friendly relations was the right decision.”

Why North Korean forces were sent to the Kursk Region

Setting aside the Western propaganda narrative that “things are going so poorly at the frontline that Moscow cannot succeed without help from allies,” and without access to classified information, two interrelated reasons behind this decision can be identified.

The first reason relates to the way the military operation is being conducted by the Russian side. Aiming to place minimal wartime burdens on society and to involve as few unwilling participants as possible, the Russian leadership strives to keep the military operation and civilian life separate – avoiding mobilization and waging a war of attrition while preserving its own personnel as much as possible. This approach makes the campaign protracted and slow, whereas achieving decisive successes requires additional, well-prepared human resources.

The second reason stems from Article 8 of the Russia-DPRK Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership: “The Parties shall establish mechanisms for conducting joint activities aimed at strengthening defense capabilities in the interest of preventing war and ensuring regional and international peace and security.”

One of the shortcomings of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) is its insufficient training and preparedness for the specific demands of modern warfare, which became evident during the Russian military operation. The KPA possesses a certain reputation and many strengths; however, that reputation is largely based on past narratives and/or displays of individual martial prowess – demonstrations that do not necessarily correlate with the skills required to survive in modern combat, where what matters most is not the ability to break bricks with one’s head, but the ability to dodge FPV drones.

Despite all its strengths, the KPA lacks experience in the kind of modern warfare that the Russian army is currently gaining.

Additionally, a shortage of resources – caused by economic isolation and the aftermath of the “Arduous March” – has led to a chronic lack of fuel and spare parts, preventing the KPA from regularly conducting large-scale exercises across all branches of the military, such as those held by South Korea or in joint US–South Korean drills. There is also no known record of regular command-and-staff exercises aimed at cultivating officers and generals en masse who are prepared for modern warfare.

Of course, the lack of real combat experience is characteristic of both North and South Korea (the only countries to have been consistently engaged in military action since the early 21st century are Russia, the US, and Israel). Nevertheless, such circumstances may lead to an insufficient understanding – especially at the middle and lower levels – of the demands of contemporary warfare, even though Kim Jong Un, who has received a military education, is well aware of what conducting war in the modern age entails.

Therefore, the military cooperation between the two countries was aimed at enriching the KPA with practical experience, with their deployment in Kursk Region serving as a kind of final internship. Initially, the focus was on training at military ranges, familiarizing troops with new weaponry and updated protocols (for instance, the advent of drones altered the previously standard reaction to the command “Air!” traditionally used to alert personnel of approaching bombers). Only afterward was this experience reinforced under combat conditions. It is claimed that even their deployment to the front line was gradual, beginning with assigning them to relieve duties in the rear.

It is important to note that although the military operation spans several fronts, North Korean forces did not cross Russia’s “old” borders. In this author’s view, this was also due to several reasons.

First, the legal basis for the participation of the DPRK military in combat operations was laid out in the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Article 4 of the document explicitly states that in the event of an armed attack on one of the parties, the other is obliged to immediately provide military and other assistance using all available means. Repelling an attack on Russia’s core territory fits within this definition.

Second, this limitation curtails the potential of Ukrainian propaganda to depict “atrocities against civilians” or to portray efforts to capture or persuade North Korean soldiers to defect and be used in propaganda campaigns.

Third, the small size of the contingent and the limited scope of their mission helped avoid a number of problems and risks that might have arisen had the cooperation been structured differently.

Concerns that did not materialize

What problems were largely avoided? Let’s begin with the technical challenges of integrating the KPA with the Russian Armed Forces.

The deployment of a large, entirely foreign contingent into the military operation zone – especially if introduced into combat without prior preparation – would have caused numerous administrative, logistical, and even communication difficulties, particularly due to the number of interpreters required to ensure effective communication and coordination not only at the headquarters level but also “in the field.” However, given the small size of the contingent, these issues were resolved on the spot.

The fact that the North Koreans had their own sector of operations helped avoid the risk of the KPA being used as a tool to solve internal problems. Had North Korean units been subordinated to Russian formations and placed under Russian command, Russian commanders might have faced a dilemma when tasked with conducting operations likely to result in significant casualties: should they send their own subordinates or deploy well-prepared foreign troops?

Everyone recognized this issue, and it’s no coincidence that enemy propaganda actively promoted the narrative of North Koreans being used as cannon fodder. Meanwhile, gaining effective combat experience as a unit is only possible through rotation after reaching an acceptable loss threshold. A unit that suffers excessive casualties cannot pass on its experience to newly arrived reinforcements or upon returning to permanent duty stations.

However, it appears that the Russian authorities opted for a different strategy: the North Koreans were given their own sector and operated there more or less independently.

There was also concern about how Russian society would react to North Korean assistance.

Although Article 20 of the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership specifically addresses the issue of “strengthening coordination in countering disinformation and aggressive information campaigns,” a significant portion of the Russian population remains influenced by long-standing anti-Pyongyang propaganda, and the image of North Korea in the public consciousness remains rather odious.

In this context, the opposing side counted on a reputational blow to the Russian leadership: the internationalization of the war would be perceived by part of Russian society as proof that Moscow lacked the strength to secure victory in Ukraine on its own and was therefore forced to enlist such allies – despite the fact that the military operation is regarded by many as an internal matter for Russia.

However, the absence of North Koreans from the public eye meant the issue was barely discussed, and the narrative of “nothing would have worked without them” never took hold in the public consciousness. Additionally, the negative perception of the DPRK was partly offset by rhetoric about combat brotherhood, the understanding that their presence could reduce overall casualties, and the lack of any reports of misconduct by the North Korean troops.

The limited role assigned to the KPA also helped reduce the risk of further internationalization of the conflict. The West could have used the “North Korean card” to justify sending a NATO contingent to Ukraine “in response to the KPA invasion.” However, from, nothing the West could have interpreted as an “invasion of Ukraine” by North Korean forces occurred. Additionally, the new US policy and the EU’s unwillingness to accept serious risks played a role in tempering the response.

As for the so-called “reputational risks for Russia,” from the Western perspective, Russia has already been cast as a menacing superpower that has seized half the world and hungrily eyes the other half. The level of demonization and Russophobia in the West is so extreme that the involvement of the KPA is unlikely to have any critical impact on Russia’s image.

It is also worth noting that the situation did not provoke a new surge of tension in East Asia. Military activity within the Washington–Tokyo–Seoul triangle has continued at the same pace as under the Biden administration, and the South Korean leadership is primarily concerned not with the presence of North Korean soldiers on Russia’s western borders, but with the risk of breakthrough military technologies being transferred to the DPRK. The US course toward creating an Asian equivalent of NATO or expanding NATO eastward has not accelerated as a result.

What’s next?

The recognition of military cooperation has undoubtedly strengthened the ties between the two countries, and in this context, South Korean media are actively discussing whether Kim Jong-un will attend the Victory Day Parade in May or the Eastern Economic Forum in the fall. There is no direct confirmation of this yet, but the participation of DPRK military personnel in the May celebrations appears likely.

The combat brotherhood will be glorified: most likely, distinguished members of the KPA will receive Russian military honors, and a monument will be erected in the DPRK, similar to those dedicated to Soviet soldiers or Chinese People’s Volunteers.

To this, we can add the rise of popular mythologization. Thanks to the efforts of both enemy propaganda and patriotic bloggers, North Koreans in the SMO have become part of the “barracks legends” – the kind of stories told in the gear room.

Military cooperation itself is also unlikely to come to an end, though the form it will take remains an interesting topic for discussion. The more probable scenario is that the training of soldiers and officers on Russian territory will continue and become more open, but without direct combat involvement.

A less likely possibility is that KPA personnel will continue to provide assistance, although an increase in the size of the North Korean contingent and/or its deployment beyond the pre-2022 Russian borders would raise concerns related to the costs and risks outlined above.

At the same time, the KPA in reality and the KPA in the post-truth world will remain two different entities. Those who want to see North Koreans – even where they are not present – will find them, and everyone will believe in the version of events that suits them best.

What about the situation on the Korean Peninsula? The demonstration of the Moscow–Pyongyang alliance reduces the risk of an armed conflict, similar to the dynamics of the Cold War.

Our side will not strike first, and the risks of a regional conflict escalating into a broader or nuclear confrontation are simply too high. As for everything else – we should watch the level of confrontation between the US and China, which will require Donald Trump to coordinate with allies, as well as the policy of South Korea’s future president.

One of the most powerful prayers on the face of the Earth is the Divine Mercy Chaplet.

This applies especially to the dying.

Our Lord once told Saint Faustina these words:

What an amazing promise made by Our Lord! He will stand between the dying person and His Father as the merciful Savior!

Let me share with you a conversation I once had and how it relates to the life of Saint Faustina regarding praying this Chaplet for the dying.

I spoke with a nurse who said she had prayed the Divine Mercy Chaplet with one of her dying patients.

As she prayed, she felt something “swoosh” by her and exit the room. This account blew me away, partially because of the story itself, but also because of a similar account from Saint Faustina.

Faustina, the great saint of Divine Mercy, recounted a similar experience during her lifetime. What made Saint Faustina’s experience different is that she saw what happened behind the scenes, beyond the veil, in the realm of the supernatural.

Saint Faustina describes it in her writings. Our Lord said to her:

Saint Faustina then stated:

As if this episode was not enough to convince us to pray the Chaplet for the dying person, Our Lord attached this promise as well:

These promises, simply put, are enormous and amazing.

Given that praying this Chaplet takes about 5-7 minutes, this is an awesome, life-giving work of mercy that is within everyone’s means.

Let us be convinced that through the testimony of Saint Faustina and the secretary of God’s mercy, one of the greatest things we can do for a dying person is to pray the Divine Mercy Chaplet for them.

God’s mercy is amazing.

He wants all His children home with Him, no matter how dark their sins are or how many demons wait for them.

Jesus said to Saint Faustina,

With all the encouragement I can possibly muster, I exhort you: the next time you hear someone is dying, especially those close to you, take 5-7 minutes, and pray the Divine Mercy Chaplet for them. Help the Lord save them.

What an amazing thing it is to cooperate with the ushering of a soul to eternal life in the Father’s house–to make demons flee when the rays of Divine Mercy show forth.

Let’s end with this prayer right from the lips of Saint Faustina:

The right-wing Reform UK has won control of ten of 23 local authorities up for grabs

The right-wing Reform UK party has won 677 out of more than 1,600 seats in England’s local elections, while the Labour and the Conservative parties suffered heavy defeats across the country.

As results began to trickle in on Friday, the party led by firebrand and Brexit proponent Nigel Farage emerged as the strongest performer in contests held in 23 local authorities across England, winning control of ten councils. These included eight taken from the Conservatives – Derbyshire, Kent, Lancashire, Lincolnshire, North Northamptonshire, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire and West Northamptonshire — along with Doncaster from Labour and Durham, where no party previously had a majority.

Reform also won hard-fought parliamentary by-elections in Runcorn and Helsby, snatching victory from Labour by just six votes after a recount. As a result, the party now controls five seats in the UK Parliament.

According to a BBC projection, if a general election were held today, Reform UK would receive 30% of the vote, ahead of Labour at 20% and the Conservatives at 15%. However, the next general election is not due until May 2029. The last one was held last year and saw Labour secure a landslide victory, riding a wave of public dissatisfaction with the economic policies of the Tories.

Commenting on his party’s strides, Farage remarked: “In post-war Britain, no one has ever beaten both Labour and the Tories in a local election before. These results are unprecedented… Reform can and will win the next general election.”

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that while he felt a “sharp edge of fury,” he said he understood the voters’ choice while promising to “go further and faster in pursuit of… national renewal.” Meanwhile, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch bluntly acknowledged that the elections were a predictable “bloodbath,” stressing that the Tories must continue work to rebuild trust in the party.

Reform UK’s rise has been driven by voter frustration over high levels of immigration, the rising cost of living, and what many see as years of mismanagement by both major parties. The party campaigned heavily on promises to cut migration – including by small boat crossings – lower taxes, and reduce council spending, positioning itself as the only alternative to what it calls “a failed political establishment.”

With just four days to go until the conclave to elect a new pope begins, cardinals are addressing a variety of challenges the next pontiff will have to face. During a flurry of pre-conclave meetings happening in the Vatican, discussions have seen both criticisms of the late pontiff, with a call for more clarity from his successor, but also praise and a call for continuity with Pope Francis’s policies.

Cardinals have now been meeting for eight days in pre-conclave general congregations, during which they are getting to know one another and offering interventions on the state of the world and the Church, to establish a profile for the next Successor of Peter.

During the first general congregations, there was significant criticism of Pope Francis and his legacy among more conservatively minded members of the “old guard”; however, recent interventions have highlighted Francis’s emphasis on evangelisation and synodality.

Weighing in on the profile of the next pope, Italian Cardinal Camillo Ruini, 94, vicar emeritus of Rome, in an open letter to cardinals ahead of the conclave said Francis’s papacy is something “that questions and deeply shakes the Church”.

A conservative giant, Ruini said he hoped the Church of the future would be charitable, but “doctrinally secure, governed according to the law, deeply united within itself”.

He insisted on the need for “certainty of truth and the security of doctrine”, but lamented that Benedict XVI’s papacy was “undermined by his poor aptitude for governing”.

“This is a concern that applies to all times, including the near future,” he said, and stressed the need to overcome both internal and external threats to the Church’s unity.

Likewise, conservative German Cardinal Gerhard Ludwig Müller told Italian newspaper La Reppublica that there was “unanimous appreciation” for Pope Francis’s attention to migrants, the poor, and to overcoming disparities between “the center and the periphery”.

However, he said Francis was “too ambiguous” at times, whereas Benedict XVI offered “perfect theological clarity”.

“Everyone has their own charisms and abilities and I think Pope Francis had them more in the social dimension,” Müller said, voicing his belief that the next pope should provide clarity on Pope Francis’s authorisation for blessings of individuals in same-sex unions, as well as his choice to appoint a woman prefect to the Dicastery for Religious, as it is an “ecclesial body” and not an administrative role.

He also underlined the need to draw a firmer line in dialogue with Islam and with China going forward, not allowing for a “relativistic” attitude toward violent instincts in Islam, and being firm in now allowing “that communists appoint bishops”.

German Cardinal Walter Kasper, 92, also gave an interview to La Reppublica in which he praised Pope Francis’s commitment to synodality and said it ought to be a guide for the future.

“I don’t think we can go back, it would be senseless. I think that we can move forward, even with a new pope,” he said, saying the faithful themselves “voted with their feet” in terms of what they want in a pope when they turned out in droves for Francis’s funeral, which was attended by around 200,000.

Kasper voiced his conviction that the Church will “move forward in the footsteps of Pope Francis. This is his central message: Jesus Christ preached mercy, he lived mercy, and he died for us on the cross out of mercy, and therefore mercy is so central to the faith of the church.”

“I hope that [the cardinals] will reach a consensus very soon on the next pope, in the footsteps of Francis,” he said.

Speaking to journalists after a May 2 general congregation meeting, Colombian Cardinal Jorge Enrique Jimenez Carvajal, 83, archbishop emeritus of Cartagena, said the Church needs a pope who can speak to all corners of the world, “And help to bring a light of hope to so many people who are living such a difficult life.”

“Pope Francis marked the world and marked society,” he said, adding that the next pope can come from anywhere, and that geography doesn’t matter.

“We ask God that he be the best possible. May he have a very big heart where everyone fits, all men, all women, all those who suffer,” he said, stressing the need for “more continuity than anything else”.

During that morning’s session, he said, a bishop had given a speech analysing the word “continuity”, and how to understand the last three papacies – John Paul II, Benedict XVI, and Francis – with the “hermeneutics of continuity”.

“It was very interesting,” Carvajal said, noting that continuity implies certain elements of the past “being born new and the new is being created…the Church cultivates continuity.”

While a certain level of tension in coming to a decision on a new pope is normal, Carvajal said, polarisation is a problem, because “the Church is an institution that doesn’t go for polarisation. In fact, it believes that polarisation, ordinarily or almost always, is harmful.”

“What the Church seeks is more is to promote unity…unity must be built, and it is hard to build, because today it seems different, because there are different situations,” but that is the Church’s task, he said.

Regardless of whatever decision is made and whoever gets elected, Carvajal said the cardinals are “unanimous” on the need to support the next pope.

Vatican spokesman Matteo Bruni in regular daily press briefings has highlighted several topics being addressed during the general congregations, including the emphasis on evangelisation, the need for the Church to speak to younger generations, and the need for the Gospel to be preached effectively “from the parishes to the Curia” in Rome.

The topics of financial and clerical abuse scandals have also been addressed as “wounds” that continue to afflict the Church, and the need for more awareness so as to identify “concrete paths for its healing”.

One of the most glaring issues the new pope will have to face is the Vatican’s crippling deficit and its looming pension crisis. While Pope Francis took various measures to get on top of the problem, it is unresolved and remains one of the most immediate priorities for the incoming pontiff.

On Wednesday, April 30, several prelates gave presentations on the Vatican’s financial situation, with American Cardinal Kevin Farrell, chair of the Committee for Investments, speaking about its role and activities.

Austrian Cardinal Christoph Schönborn, chair of the Supervisory Commission of Cardinals of the Institute for the Works of Religion (IOR), the so-called Vatican Bank, spoke about its current situation, while Spanish Cardinal Fernando Vérgez Alzaga, president emeritus of the Governorate of Vatican City State, offered details on the Governorate, including some renovation works.

Polish Cardinal Konrad Krajewski, Apostolic Almoner, also spoke about the commitment of the Dicastery for the Service of Charity.

Other topics that have come up in discussions include liturgy, the importance of canon law, and the value of synodality, a buzzword of Francis’s papacy that implies a more collaborative style of leadership with an emphasis on making the church a more welcoming and inclusive place for all its members.

The connections between synodality, collegiality and mission in the Church were highlighted, as was the need to overcome secularism and to overcome polarisation and divisions in society. The value of synodality in this regard was highlighted, “in close connection with episcopal collegiality, as an expression of differentiated co-responsibility,” Bruni said on May 2.

References have also been made to documents of the Second Vatican Council, particularly the apostolic constitutions Lumen Gentium and Gaudium et Spes, and how to foster more priestly and religious vocations.

Reaching a consensus for the new pope will be a challenge for the cardinals, as there are more of them – 135 electors participating, instead of the 115 and 117 of the past two conclaves – and they are on the whole far more diverse, with many being unfamiliar with Rome and unable to speak Italian.

Two electors, Cardinal Antonio Cañizares Llovera, archbishop emeritus of Valencia, and Cardinal John Njue, archbishop emeritus of Nairobi, Kenya, are unable to participate due to illness, meaning the number of electors present in Rome voting will be 133.

Carvajal in his comments to journalists noted that “many of us did not know each other” prior to coming to Rome for pre-conclave meetings, but he said the fact that there is so much diversity, and that they are now getting to know each other better, is a gift for the Church.

On the whole, the body of cardinals who will elect Francis’s successor is younger and more diverse, reflecting Pope Francis’s desire for a more global Church that better reflected realities on the ground.

The average age of cardinal-electors (those under 80) is 70 years old; however, there are several who are in their mid-40s and mid-50s, including Cardinal Mykola Bychok of Saints Peter and Paul of Melbourne (Ukrainian), who is 45; Cardinal Giorgio Marengo of Mongolia, 50; Américo Manuel Cardinal Alves Aguiar of Setubal, Portugal, 51; Indian Syro-Malabar Cardinal George Jacob Koovakad, prefect emeritus of interreligious dialogue, 51; and Lithuanian Cardinal Rolandas Cardinal Makrickas, coadjutor archpriest of St. Mary Major, 53.

Some 80 per cent of the cardinal-electors were appointed by Pope Francis, more of whom come from the global south than in previous conclaves.

Whereas 51 per cent of cardinal-electors came from Europe in 2005 and 2013, this year only 43 per cent are from Europe, whereas the percentages of those from Latin America, Asia and the Pacific, and Africa and the Middle East have increased by several percentage points.

This year Latin Americans make up 18 per cent of the cardinal-electors, whereas Asia and Pacific cardinals make up 16 per cent, and cardinals from Africa and the Middle East represent 14 per cent. North American cardinals, who made up 11 per cent in the past two conclaves, are now nine per cent.

With Francis’s appointees, there are now more voting cardinals from Asia and the Pacific than there are from Italy, which marks a significant departure from the past. There has also been a noticeable drop in cardinals from the Curia, going from 27 per cent in 2013 to just 20 per cent now.

There are no serious contenders among the US contingent, apart from Cardinal Robert Prevost, a Chicago native who spent nearly 30 years as a missionary in Peru with his Augustinian order, as he is considered moderate, while the others are viewed as being either too far to the Right, or too far to the Left.

Four cardinal-electors still need to arrive to Rome prior to the start of the conclave May 7, which will begin with Mass and the swearing of the oath of secrecy that morning, and the closing of the Sistine Chapel doors and casting the first vote that evening.

The chimney from which black or white smoke will pour out of after the various ballots has already been installed, and the Sistine Chapel itself is being prepared with a special floor, and tables and chairs for the voting sessions.

After the first vote on Wednesday, 7 May, two votes will take place each morning and each afternoon until a new pope is elected.

Photo: Cardinal Camillo Ruini prays during a papal Mass for the 14th Ordinary General Assembly of the Synod of Bishops at St Peter’s Basilica, Vatican, 25 October 2015. (Photo credit should read ANDREAS SOLARO/AFP via Getty Images.)

The post FEATURE: Cardinals assess Pope Francis’s legacy as they debate Church’s future ahead of conclave first appeared on Catholic Herald.

The post FEATURE: Cardinals assess Pope Francis’s legacy as they debate Church’s future ahead of conclave appeared first on Catholic Herald.

One of the stories surrounding the conclave to elect Pope Francis’s successor – set to open on May 7 – is the unfamiliarity of the cardinal electors with one another. They are not all perfect strangers to one another but many of them don’t really know each other that well.

A record number of cardinals are eligible to vote for the next pope – 135 are under 80, although at least two will not be attending.

Francis appointed most of them. Many of them are from countries that never had a cardinal before, and their guys aren’t often in Rome meeting the other members of this very exclusive club.

But I wonder: Do they know each other on Facebook or Instagram?

This came to mind when I saw a post on X (formally Twitter).

It played an interview with Mark Zuckerberg – the founder of Facebook – on the advancement of Artificial Intelligence on social media, and how people are using AI to form “personal relationships” with artificial people.

“I think as the personalisation loop kicks in, and the AI just starts to get to know you better and better, I think that will just be really compelling,” Zuckerberg says.

Zuckerberg cites a statistic according to which the average American has fewer than three friends.

“[T]he average person has demand for something meaningfully more,” Zuckerberg says, “I guess it is like 15 friends or something.” He speculates that people are just too busy for more than three.

“But the average person wants more connectivity connection than they have,” he says in explanation of the reason for which “virtual friends” are becoming more popular.

This was an issue well before the explosion of AI in the past two years. Many people have hundreds of Facebook “friends”, many of them real people but who they have never really met.

They have “friendships” with these people, but both of them get to present a highly curated digital version of themselves – an artificial version, in a word — usually much better than their real, natural, actual realities (and occasionally much worse).

I was in my early 30s when Facebook came out and am in my 50s now. I have been able to reacquaint myself with many old friends from high school and university (and am so glad about this), but there are a number of people I don’t actually know, who are on my Facebook “friends” list. (I admit, I prefer the term “following” on Instagram and X.)

There have been various scandals on social media, where people are attacked for saying things seen as offensive, then defending themselves by declaring, “It was just a joke!” They may have a point: Often a person can make a joke to close friends that would seem very offensive to someone who didn’t know them and weren’t able to see the context of what they said.

But on social media, a thousand people might “like” the statement: some because they are the author’s actual friends, others because they do get the context and joke, and quite a few because they are, well, sociopaths. The thousands who are offended, are offended because out of context, the statement was offensive.

The algorithms that determine the content users see on social media platforms – the algorithms now apparently being somehow incorporated into these emerging AI “persons” – track individuals’ posts and “engagement” with others’ posts, and then show users content that the algorithms “think”  the users want to see, or else they show them things that the algorithms calculate will make users angry – there is some overlap in the categories – basically, anything the algorithm determines likely to garner a click.

This puts people into echo chambers and is creating a new tribal culture that we as a society haven’t learned to deal with.

Yet Zuckerberg is not pointing out the dangers caused by “artificial” friends. He is suggesting they have an important role to play.

“I think that a lot of these things that today there might be a little bit of a stigma around, I would guess that over time, we will find the vocabulary as a society to be able to articulate why that is valuable and why the people who are doing these things… like why they are rational for doing it, and why it is valuable for their lives, but also I think the field is very early,” he says.

Reading the news, the questions facing the Church as we enter the conclave are centered on conservatives focused on “traditional values” and Latin Masses, and on progressives pushing for gay marriage and women clergy. These are the debates of the second half of the 20th century. The first part of the 21st century sees a society questioning what it means to be human, with “post humanism” being pushed by the leaders of many technology firms.

“I mean there are a handful of companies that are doing virtual therapists and there are virtual girlfriends and stuff, but it is very early,” Zuckerberg points out in his interview.

Call me a hopeless naif, but I think the cardinals would do well as they enter the conclave next week to remember the words of Jesus Christ in the Gospel according to John:

“This is my commandment: Love one another, as I have loved you. No one can have greater love than to lay down his life for his friends. You are my friends, if you do what I command you. I shall no longer call you servants, because a servant does not know the master’s business; I call you friends, because I have made known to you everything I have learnt from my Father.”

Jesus didn’t say that for the sort of recognition of being “Liked” on social media and building up his friendship base.

RELATED: Cardinal Müller says next pope must be ‘strong on doctrine’ and stand up to ‘gay lobby’

Photo: Cardinals depart a College of Cardinals meeting with other cardinals, during which the May 7 conclave date to elect Pope Francis’ successor was determined, Rome, Italy, 28 April 2025. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images.)

The post Debating 20th-century problems in a 21st-century world: the conclave needs to catch up first appeared on Catholic Herald.

The post Debating 20th-century problems in a 21st-century world: the conclave needs to catch up appeared first on Catholic Herald.

Inside This Week's Bull Bear Report

• Economic Decline Gains Momentum
• How We Are Trading It
• Research Report - Investing Awards You Never Receive
• YouTube - Before The Bell
• Market Statistics
• Stock Screens
• Portfolio Trades This Week

Market Runs Into Resistance

Last week, we discussed that the market backdrop improved markedly following commentary from the White House that eased concerns about tariffs. To wit:

"The market rallied above the 20-DMA this past week as investors found some "silver linings" to the ongoing tariff dispute. Despite China saying "no negotiations" had started with the U.S., comments from both President Trump and Scott Bessent suggested that the Administration would "be nice" to China and that a "very good deal" could be done between the two countries. As we have noted previously, given the more extreme oversold condition of the market, any "good news" would allow investors to push stocks higher."

This past week, two reports confirmed the economy is slowing. First, there was the weak GDP report, which showed growth of roughly one percent, after discounting the impact of the trade deficit. Secondly, while the employment number was higher than expected, the job growth trend is also slowing. However, those reports should have tempered market enthusiasm as they reduced hopes for Fed rate cuts. However, the market pushed higher as investors raced to jump back into "risk assets" as the market cleared initial resistance at the 20-DMA and reversed all of the "Liberation Day" losses.

As we noted in "Hope In The Fear," it would take much for the market to mount a sizeable rally given the extremely negative sentiment and positioning. Last week, the potential break in the China stalemate and non-recessionary data fed the "short-covering" rally, and pushed the index above the 50-DMA. That rally has also reversed the more extreme bearish sentiment and pushed the number of stocks on "bullish buy signals" back to 70%.

Notably, the rally from the recent lows, which has seen the market rise for 9 consecutive days, is one of the longest win streaks in 20 years.

What should be notable about that statement is that all "win streaks" end, eventually. That statement does not mean the markets will crash, but given that the rally has pushed markets back into short-term overbought conditions. Furthermore, the 200- and 100-DMA will provide notable resistance to the continuation of this rally without a pullback first. As we noted previously, many "trapped longs" will look to exit the market as we approach full recovery from the "tariff breakdown."

Two Reasons To Be More Bullish

While bullish that the market has recovered 61.8% of its recent correction, a pullback should be expected. If you haven't rebalanced allocations and reduced risk somewhat, now is the time. However, look for retracements to the 50-DMA, then the recent support, and finally the 20-DMA as areas to rebuild equity exposure. Lastly, move stop losses in portfolios up to the 20-DMA for trading positions.

There are two reasons to be more constructive about the market over the coming month. First, May tends to be a better-performing month following Presidential elections, while June tends to be weak (hence the Wall Street axiom "Sell In May.")

Secondly, after a sharp reversal in April, which fueled the market selloff, share repurchases return next week as the bulk of the S&P 500 has announced earnings.

Optimism is returning to the market with economic data mainly remaining stable, earnings season coming in "better-than-expected," and the near-term tariff threat residing. However, as noted, we suggest being somewhat cautious following the recent sharp advance and using short-term pullbacks to recent support to reduce hedges and increase equity risk as needed.

As we advance into 2025, we expect volatility to remain a constant companion. This will be a function of both the realization that economic growth is slowing and the repricing of valuations as earnings estimates are revised lower to meet reality.

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Economic Decline Is Gaining Momentum

Given the recent strength in the economic data, we are not in the "recession" camp. However, there is little argument that an economic decline is gaining momentum. However, that decline should not be surprising since we repeatedly discussed it last year. To wit:

"One of the primary reasons why the economy has defied the recessionary drag from higher borrowing costs has been the ample supply of fiscal support through previously passed spending bills such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPs Act. When combined with stimulus checks, tax credits, and moratoriums on various debt payments like rent and student loans, the amount of monetary support for consumption supported economic growth as the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy."

What is crucial to understand is that the surge in monetary support acted as an “adrenaline” boost to the economy. Yes, many economic data series suggest the risk of recession is elevated. However, the surge of monetary injections sent the economy into overdrive, as evidenced by economic growth in 2021. You can see this clearly in the chart below, which shows the annual rate of change in federal spending versus economic growth. As federal spending has slowed, so has the economy's annual growth rate.

As we noted last year, the crucial point that continues to elude most economists is that the economic decline will gain traction as that “adrenaline” boost fades. Had the economy been growing at 5% nominal, as in 2019, the decline from the post-pandemic peak would already register a recession. However, given that nominal growth neared 18%, it has taken far longer than many expected for economic decline to return to previous norms of just 2% annual growth.

In that previous article, we explained how the economic decline would take time to return to norms. To show this, we looked at the number of quarters between peak economic activity and the entrance into a recession. Using that historical analysis, we estimated that reversing economic growth into a recession could take roughly 22 quarters. Such would target the next downturn in late 2025 to mid-2026.

As we concluded then, many things could certainly happen to lengthen or shorten that estimated time frame. However, the importance is that an economic decline from elevated economic growth rates can take much longer than usual. Another similar period was the 25 quarters of slowing economic growth before the 1991 recession.

However, that analysis was "so last year." Things have certainly changed, particularly given the current Administration's tariffs and the potential impact on economic growth that those could foster. We have already seen a fairly sharp downturn in key economic indicators, showing that the economic decline is accelerating. That data appeared this past week in the Q1-GDP report, which showed a negative print for Q1 caused entirely by the front-running of tariffs, which created a record trade deficit. The BEA noted this following the release of the data.

"The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports."

Simultaneously, despite concerns about tariffs, the "stagflation" concerns were crushed by a drop in the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, which fell to just 2.3% annually.

So, the key question for investors is, where are we headed next? Economic slowdown or recession?

Key Indicators We Are Watching

There is currently no evidence that the economy is slipping into a recession. However, if you want to know if an economic decline will evolve into a recession, there is one key factor to consider: consumer spending. Consumer spending comprises nearly 70% of the GDP calculation, and everything else, from business investment to imports and exports, is a function of the consumer's "demand." In other words, if the consumer is slowing down or contracting spending, businesses will not "invest" in expansion projects, increasing employment, or buying more products for resale. That relationship is shown in the chart below, which compares PCE to employment and private investment.

As such, watching the consumer is critical to estimating economic outcomes. As we discussed in "The Consumer Is Tapping Out,"

"While GDP surged following the economic shutdown due to the massive flood of stimulus that fueled a savings surge, consumption as a percent of the economy has remained flat since the turn of the century. The reason is that despite the surge in savings, the consumer was also faced with rising inflation, which left them struggling to make ends meet."

"This dilemma is better illustrated by the chart below. The blue line is the personal savings rate, and the red line shows the debt needed annually to bridge the gap between the inflation-adjusted cost of living and savings and incomes. As shown, at the turn of the century, the consumer could no longer fund their living standard through just income and savings. The fact that consumers were forced to take on increasing debt levels to maintain their living standards explains why consumption as a percent of GDP has remained stagnant over the same period."

At the heart of the problem is the collapse of household balance sheets in the lower-income and middle-income brackets. These groups have depleted the excess savings accumulated during the pandemic and are now facing increasing pressures to maintain their standard of living. Here are a few examples:

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that the share of active credit card accounts making only minimum payments surged to 10.75% in Q3 2024—a record high.
• Credit card delinquency rates have increased 33 basis points year-over-year to 3.52% in the third quarter of 2024. This represents more than double the delinquency rate of 1.57 percent at the pandemic low in the second quarter of 2021.
• According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment in the United States has fallen to the second-lowest reading ever recorded…
• A new CNBC/SurveyMonkey poll found that 73 percent of U.S. consumers are “financially stressed."
• 63% of people with savings accounts have withdrawn money since the beginning of 2025, primarily for unexpected expenses (48%) and everyday necessities (36%)
• 67% of Americans feel behind on their savings goals, with nearly half (47%) believing they’ll never reach their targets

Those issues feed into three key indicators we are watching very closely.

The first is our composite economic index, which comprises nearly 100 data points of both soft and hard economic variables. That indicator has a very high correlation to economic growth and has decreased sharply over the last two months, which confirms the Q1 weakness and could continue into Q2. Such sharp reversals regularly coincide with economic declines and recessions. However, the current reading remains above "recession" levels, below 30. This suggests slower economic growth but no recession yet.

Secondly, the 6-month rate of change in the leading economic indicators (LEI). As with the economic composite, the LEI index suggests the economy should be in a recession. In its entire history, the indicator has had a perfect record of recession prediction, except recently. Again, this was because of the massive flood of stimulus, but with that support gone, we should see weakness return to the LEI indicator, suggesting further economic decline. In other words, the recent improvement will likely fail as we saw heading into 2008.

Lastly, credit spreads remain key to navigating an economic decline or a recession. We have discussed credit spreads in the past, but for investors, they are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference in yield between two bonds of similar maturity but different credit quality. This comparison often involves Treasury bonds (considered risk-free) and corporate bonds (which carry default risk). By observing these spreads, investors can gauge risk appetite in financial markets. Such helps investors identify stress points that often precede stock market corrections.

The spread below, risk-free versus the most risky (high-yield, or junk bonds), is the most important to watch.

In the linked article above, we noted that this spread has been a reliable predictor of market corrections and bear markets and coincides with economic declines and recessions. This makes sense given that the high-yield bond market consists of debt issued by companies with lower credit ratings. Such makes them more vulnerable to economic slowdowns. As such, when investors become concerned about economic prospects, they demand significantly higher returns to hold these riskier bonds. When that happens, the spreads widen warning of increasing risks.

Historically, sharp increases in the high-yield spread have preceded economic recessions and significant market downturns, giving it a high degree of predictive power. According to research by the Federal Reserve and other financial institutions, the high-yield spread has successfully anticipated every U.S. recession since the 1970s. Typically, a widening of this spread by more than 300 basis points (3%) from its recent low has been a strong signal of an impending market correction.

Currently, that particular yield spread remains well contained. Still, when it reverses, it tends to do so quickly. As such, yield spreads are a better "real-time" indicator than lagging economic data.

The latest economic data confirms what we already knew: economic growth is weakening faster than many expect. For investors, that economic decline threatens the one thing markets care about: earnings.

Watching For Earnings Impact

While the first quarter earnings season has been okay, earnings over the next few quarters will likely be revised lower. So far, earnings estimates for the S&P 500 index (by S&P Global) remain extremely optimistic. In the last two months, S&P Global has raised its estimates for 2026 GAAP earnings (reported) from $289/share to $292/share. As we have discussed previously, these estimates are exceedingly deviated from the long-term growth trend of earnings.

Such is particularly an issue for investors when economic data and inflation decline.

Historically, GDP growth has closely correlated with corporate earnings growth. Data from the Federal Reserve shows that, since 1948, a 1% increase in real GDP growth has translated to roughly a 6% increase in S&P 500 earnings on average. This relationship underscores why GDP is a cornerstone for assessing earnings trends. We can also see this visually.

“Since 1947, earnings per share have grown at 7.7% annually, while the economy expanded by 6.40% annually. That close relationship in growth rates should be logical, particularly given the significant role that consumer spending has in the GDP equation.” – Market Forecasts Are Very Bullish

A better way to visualize this data is to look at the correlation between the annual change in earnings growth and inflation-adjusted GDP. There are periods when earnings deviate from underlying economic activity. However, those periods are due to pre- or post-recession earnings fluctuations. Currently, economic and earnings growth are very close to the long-term correlation.

However, that assumes that GDP continues growing at roughly 2% annually. If economic growth deteriorates, as expected, then maintaining corporate earnings at projected levels becomes more difficult. Such is particularly the case when consumer confidence is contracting sharply, particularly in the outlook for higher incomes over the next 6 months.

With expectations for incomes to decline and earnings tied to personal consumption, the risk of an economic slowdown should eventually be reflected in negative revisions to earnings expectations. That reduction in estimates will ultimately be reflected in the market price. Such is why there is a correlation between PCE (consumer activity drives earnings) and the annual percentage change in the stock market.

The incoming economic data is weakening, and there is clear evidence that the consumer is slowing down. While this does not mean a "recession" is coming, an economic decline is probable. As such, investors need to adjust their expectations for slower economic growth, increased market volatility, and lower forward returns.

How We Are Trading It

If the economy is slowing down and valuations adjust for lower forward earnings expectations, the most significant risk for investors is navigating market volatility. That doesn't mean markets will crash. However, it does suggest that many investors will fall victim to emotional mistakes in a sideways market. The need for a more conservative approach is rising, with forward returns lower and more volatile than promised. 

The formula for investment success is controlling risk, reducing emotional investment mistakes, and limiting the destruction of investment capital. Here are some guidelines:

• Focus on capital preservation
• Forget about "beating the market" and target a rate of return sufficient to keep pace with the rate of inflation.
• Keep expectations based on realistic objectives.  (The market does not compound at 8%, 6% or 4%)
• Realize that chasing higher rates of return require an exponential increase in the underlying risk profile.  Such tends to not work out well.
• Remember that while you can replace lost capital – but you can’t replace lost time.  Time is a precious commodity that you cannot afford to waste.
• Your portfolio is time-frame specific. If you have a 5-years to retirement but build a portfolio with a 20-year time horizon (increasing draw-down risk,) the results will likely be disastrous.

We continue to manage our portfolios with an above-normal level of caution. This week, we added to our short-market hedge and slightly increased the duration of our bond portfolio as the "basis trade" crisis we discussed two weeks ago seems to be under control. However, that risk is not entirely over.

As noted above, there is an elevated level of risk ahead as we approach the 200-DMA. The large supply of stock for sale and potential for continued weak economic data are key factors. While we don't expect the market to crater to new lows unless there is another tariff or trade shock and a surge in recessionary data, a retest of recent lows would be unsurprising. As such, we are carrying an overweight position in cash and reduced equity allocations for now.

As an investment manager, we are neither bullish nor bearish. We view the markets through the lens of statistics and probabilities. Our job is to manage the inherent risk to investment capital for our clients. While it is true that markets have always recovered their losses, getting back to even isn’t the same thing as making money.

Have a great weekend.

(Note: The allocation below contains a 5% short S&P 500 position in the ETF allocation.)

Feel free to reach out if you want to navigate these uncertain waters with expert guidance. Our team specializes in helping clients make informed decisions in today’s volatile markets.

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Relative Performance Analysis

Two weeks ago, we stated, "While risk is subsiding in the near term, there is a lack of a catalyst to move stocks higher. Some good news on the tariff front or better-than-expected earnings over the next two weeks could provide relief. However, by the end of the month, stock buybacks return, which will give some support to equities headed into May."

That good news continued this past week, as "not-as-bad-as-expected" earnings announcements and a potential breakthrough with China kept the rally going. That support could continue into the end of the month, with the stock buyback window now open, adding a further buyer to the market. With sentiment still largely suppressed, and shorts needing to cover as markets rally, the pressure will remain to the upside. However, with markets short-term overbought, expect corrections to support, which can be used to add equity exposure as needed and reduce hedges.

Technical Composite

The technical overbought/sold gauge comprises several price indicators (R.S.I., Williams %R, etc.), measured using “weekly” closing price data. Readings above “80” are considered overbought, and below “20” are oversold. The market peaks when those readings are 80 or above, suggesting prudent profit-taking and risk management. The best buying opportunities exist when those readings are 20 or below.

The current reading is 49.99 out of a possible 100.

Portfolio Positioning “Fear / Greed” Gauge

The “Fear/Greed” gauge is how individual and professional investors are “positioning” themselves in the market based on their equity exposure. From a contrarian position, the higher the allocation to equities, the more likely the market is closer to a correction than not. The gauge uses weekly closing data.

NOTE: The Fear/Greed Index measures risk from 0 to 100. It is a rarity that it reaches levels above 90.

The current reading is 55.95 out of a possible 100.

Relative Sector Analysis

Most Oversold Sector Analysis

Sector Model Analysis & Risk Ranges

How To Read This Table

• The table compares the relative performance of each sector and market to the S&P 500 index.
• “MA XVER” (Moving Average Crossover) is determined by the short-term weekly moving average crossing positively or negatively with the long-term weekly moving average.
• The risk range is a function of the month-end closing price and the “beta” of the sector or market. (Ranges reset on the 1st of each month)
• The table shows the price deviation above and below the weekly moving averages.

As noted last week, the rally this past week was unsurprising given the large number of markets and sectors trading well below the monthly risk ranges. However, given that most markets and sectors are trading with "bearish" crossovers, the correction process has likely not ended, so remain cautious. Historically, when most markets and sectors are trading bearish, the correction process is more entrenched and lasts longer than normal market pullbacks.

Weekly SimpleVisor Stock Screens

We provide three stock screens each week from SimpleVisor.

This week, we are searching for the Top 20:

• Relative Strength Stocks
• Momentum Stocks
• Technical Strength W/ Dividends

(Click Images To Enlarge)

RSI Screen

Momentum Screen

Technically Strong With Dividends

SimpleVisor Portfolio Changes

We post all of our portfolio changes as they occur at SimpleVisor:

Apr 30th

Trade Alert – Equity & ETF Models

With the market’s roughly 50% retracement from the recent lows, we are adding to our short S&P 500 index ETF (SH) to increase our portfolio hedge. With big earnings out today after the bell and tomorrow, along with employment on Friday, there is plenty of news to bring sellers back into the market near-term. As such, we remain more cautious and willing to sacrifice some near-term performance to reduce downside risk. We will remove the shorts and increase equity allocations when the market becomes more constructive.

Equity Model

• Increase SH to 5% of the portfolio.

ETF Model

• Increase SH to 5% of the portfolio.

Lance Roberts, C.I.O., RIA Advisors

The post Economic Decline Gains Momentum appeared first on RIA.

Each day between now and the May 7 conclave to elect a successor to Pope Francis, we are running a profile of a different “papabile”, the Italian term for a man who could be pope. There’s no precise way to identity these contenders; it’s mostly a matter of weighing reputations, positions held and influence wielded over the years. There’s also certainly no guarantee one of these candidates will emerge wearing white; as an old bit of Roman wisdom has it, “He who enters a conclave as a pope exits as a cardinal.” But these profiles will feature the leading names drawing buzz in Rome right now, at least making it very likely that they will get a look. Knowing who these men are also suggests issues and qualities other cardinals see as desirable heading into the election.

In the classic 1941 film noir, a cultured criminal named Kasper Gutman says to the rough-around-the-edges detective Sam Spade, “By gad, sir, you are a character! There’s never any telling what you’ll say or do next, except that it’s bound to be something astonishing.”

That bit of dialogue, of course, comes from the John Huston classic Maltese Falcon, but it might well also be said of the great Maltese contender in the 2025 conclave, 68-year-old Cardinal Mario Grech.

During his run as the Bishop of Gozo in Malta from 2005 to 2019, Grech generally was considered a conservative, seen as standing to the right of, and sometimes at odds with, Archbishop Charles Scicluna, who heads the Archdiocese of Malta.

That reputation, however, dissolved like sugar in hot coffee once Grech was appointed Secretary General of the Synod of Bishops by Pope Francis, a role in which he became a champion of the late pontiff’s vision for a more “synodal” Church and of the progressive reform causes with which the synod came to be associated.

You thus never quite know what you might get from Grech, but it is often something astonishing.

Born in Gozo in 1957, the young Grech attended a grade school run by the Carmelite sisters and then entered the diocesan seminary of Gozo. He was ordained to the priesthood in 1984 and shipped off to Rome for further studies at the Pontifical Lateran University, where, among other things, he learned Italian. He later earned a doctoral degree in canon law from the University of St. Thomas, the “Angelicum”, and worked for the Roman Rota, the Vatican’s main working court, which mostly handles marriage cases.

After a period back in Malta as a priest, much of its spent working on church tribunals, Grech was named the Bishop of Gozo by Pope Benedict XVI in November 2005. He launched an ambitious diocesan mission, including visiting Maltese diaspora communities in various parts of the world; created a number of commissions and other initiatives, including a diocesan commission for the protection of children and vulnerable adults from sexual abuse; and served as the representative of the Maltese bishops both to the European bishops’ conference and the Italian bishops’ conference.

In April 2010, Grech hosted Pope Benedict during a brief two-day visit to Malta to mark the 1,950th anniversary of St. Paul’s famous shipwreck on the island.

When a debate broke out in 2011 over the legalisation of divorce in Malta, Grech came out in opposition in tandem with the island’s clergy, warning that voters would be “accountable to Jesus”. (A referendum allowing divorce passed with 53 percent of the vote.)

He also became an outspoken defender of migrants during Malta’s migrant and refugee crisis, accusing elements of Maltese society pushing for a policy of closure of “racism”. At one point, he criticised Italian politician Matteo Salvini, leader of the far-right Lega party, for brandishing a rosary while engaging in anti-immigrant tirades during campaign rallies.

When Pope Francis summoned his ambitious Synods of Bishops on the Family in 2014-15, Grech surprised many observers by his welcoming and positive language on LGBTQ+ Catholics, in a talk which attracted favorable attention from the pontiff. There were rumors at the time that he might be named the Archbishop of Malta, but local Maltese media suggested a letter from some of his priests in Gozo complaining of an excessive attachment to material goods and poor government, including in regard to an abuse case, scuttled his chances.

In 2017, Grech and Scicluna issued guidelines for Malta on the implementation of Francis’s post-synodal document Amoris Laetitia, which in a footnote opened a cautious door for the reception of communion by Catholics who divorce and remarry outside the Church. At the time, some saw the Maltese guidelines as going even farther than the Pope, although they were eventually published in L’Osservatore Romano, the Vatican newspaper, suggesting a sort of official endorsement.

By the time Grech was tapped to run the Synod of Bishops in 2019, he was considered a solidly pro-Francis figure in the global hierarchy. His administration of the two Synods on Synodality certainly burnished that reputation, giving him multiple occasions to extol the ideals of a more listening, participatory and inclusive Church.

In 2022 he also rejected an open letter from a group of more conservative Catholic bishops criticising the progressive German “synodal way”, calling the statement “polarising” and voicing confidence the Germans knew what they were doing.

What’s the case for Grech as pope?

To begin with, in a conclave in which so many cardinals are strangers to one another, he’s a known quantity. Of the 133 cardinals set to file into the Sistine Chapel next Wednesday, 62 of them took part in at least one of the two synods on synodality, meaning they’re used to seeing Grech sit in the front of the room and in charge. That in itself might be a selling point in a moment in which cardinals, feeling out of their depth, may be looking for someone to follow.

In addition, Grech would be seen as a vote for continuity with the Pope Francis agenda, but perhaps with slightly more legal precision and grounding given his deep background in Church law. In other words, pro-Francis voters might see him as someone who could institutionalise the late pope’s legacy.

The case against?

First of all, the fact that he has changed so his tune so dramatically from the Benedict years in Gozo to the Francis years in Rome may be seen by some voters as evidence of an unreliable shifting with the wind, though others style it as an admirable capacity to change and grow with experience and circumstances. Certainly, cardinals looking for assurances of greater doctrinal clarity probably would look askance.

Moreover, a vote for Grech is likely a vote for continuing a three-year synodal process that Pope Francis issued while he was in Rome’s Gemelli Hospital battling double pneumonia, which is designed to culminate in a grand “ecclesial assembly” with roughly equal numbers of bishops, priests and deacons, religious and lay people. Some conservative critics see the process as undermining the hierarchical nature of the Church, but more broadly there’s simply a degree of “synod fatigue” among many prelates who may not be anxious to confirm yet another series of meetings on a theme many of them found amorphous and confusing.

Given there’s a general consensus that the next pope has to be a competent governor, among other things capable of tackling both the financial and the sexual abuse scandals that still haunt Catholicism, the concerns about Grech’s government style from his Gozo years probably don’t help his candidacy either.

Still, Grech has proven surprising capable over the years of adaptation and delivering surprises. Starting next Wednesday, we’ll see if he has one more surprise to spring.

RELATED: Taking charge of 1.4 billion souls: the spectacle gripping the world

Photo: Cardinal Mario Grech takes part in a media interview in St Peter’s square in Vatican City, 15 March 2025. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images.)

The post Papabile of the Day: Cardinal Mario Grech, the ‘Maltese Falcon’ full of surprises first appeared on Catholic Herald.

The post Papabile of the Day: Cardinal Mario Grech, the ‘Maltese Falcon’ full of surprises appeared first on Catholic Herald.

The package is ready to go, but it is unclear whether Donald Trump will approve it, as ceasefire negotiations continue, the report says

The US has finalized a new set of economic sanctions targeting Russia as leverage to force Moscow to settle the Ukraine conflict, Reuters reported on Friday, citing several sources. It remains unclear, however, whether US President Donald Trump will approve the measures.

Earlier media reports suggested that Trump has not ruled out the sanctions if a ceasefire is not reached soon. On Monday, Moscow offered a 72-hour ceasefire from May 8 to 10, portraying the initiative as a chance to begin “direct negotiations with Kiev without preconditions.” Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky dismissed the overture as “manipulation,” insisting on a 30-day truce.

The targets of the new sanctions under discussion include state-owned Russian energy giant Gazprom and major entities involved in the natural resources and banking sectors, an administration official told the agency, without providing specifics.

Russia has been under US sanctions over the Ukraine crisis since 2014, which were dramatically tightened after the conflict escalated in 2022. Russia has called the sanctions illegal.

The US National Security Council “is trying to coordinate some set of more punitive actions against Russia,” a Reuters source familiar with the issue stated, adding that “this will have to be signed off by Trump.” Another unnamed US official said, “It’s totally his call.”

As the Trump administration has been actively engaged in negotiations with Moscow and Kiev to end the Ukraine conflict, it reportedly floated a peace plan that includes US recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, as well as freezing the conflict along the current front lines and acknowledging Moscow’s control over large parts of the four former Ukrainian regions which voted to join Russia.

The deal would also reportedly initiate a phased removal of sanctions imposed on Russia and prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.

Meanwhile, US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has said at least 72 senators now support “bone-crushing” sanctions if Russia resists peace talks. The senator insisted that the goal of this group “is to help the president” gain leverage on Russia.

Last month, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio questioned the wisdom of placing new restrictions on Moscow, stating that the Trump administration is “hoping to see” whether diplomacy will work first. “The minute you start doing that kind of stuff, you’re walking away from it, you’ve now doomed yourself to another two years of war and we don’t want to see it happen,” he said.

The Catholic Herald, one of the world’s oldest Catholic publications, has launched a regulated crowdfunding campaign as it embarks on its next chapter in 2025.

It has been a trusted and faithful voice in journalism for generations since its foundation in London in 1888, and is now primed for growth in the modern media age. It has now opened investment to the public for the first time in its 137-year history.

Now with an office in New York City as well as in London, The Catholic Herald is expanding its global-content footprint, investing in digital platforms and launching new initiatives that bring its vast archives to life – from original documentaries and podcasts to educational and cultural projects.

The crowdfunding launch comes at a time of renewed energy in faith-based communities and a growing interest in values-driven media. Across the US and indeed the world, a rising “traditional economy” is fuelling interest in Catholic education, publishing and cultural ventures that are rooted in belief and purpose.

Supporters can now invest directly in this growth through a live campaign with Republic, the leading equity crowdfunding platform. Click on the relevant link below to be redirected to the investor page.

For US, UK, EU & Rest of World Investors: click HERE.

The post Primed for growth: The Catholic Herald’s global crowdfunding campaign first appeared on Catholic Herald.

The post Primed for growth: The Catholic Herald’s global crowdfunding campaign appeared first on Catholic Herald.