Authored by Rachel Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) is warning of a workless “lost generation,” caused partly by the number of young people suffering from poor mental health.

A man wearing a mask walks past a mural painted as part of the Cities of Hope festival in 2016 and highlighting the effects of mental health, in Ancoats, northern Manchester, England, on Oct. 16, 2020.Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images

The body is calling for immediate government action which it says is needed to help young people from generation Z, generally defined as those born between 1997–2012, to enter the workplace or education.

Its report, “Creating Job Opportunities for Gen Z,” released on Monday, follows research published last week which found the number of young people claiming benefits owing to poor mental health or neurodiverse conditions such as autism and ADHD was not economically “sustainable.”

‘Double Whammy’

Shevaun Haviland, director general of the BCC, said:   “The UK’s active workforce is rapidly ageing, while the number of young people who are not in employment, education or training is at its highest level for a decade.

“Generation Z face a double whammy of increasing barriers to entering the workforce, and reducing opportunities as the number of vacancies continues to fall.

“But research shows the longer we leave this pool of talent to drift away from the workplace the harder it becomes for them to engage.”

The BCC, which represents a large number of smaller businesses, is calling on the government to spend more on mental health support and further education and for a more “collaborative approach” across the various Whitehall departments.

‘Rise of Anxiety’

Last week’s report from the Tony Blair Institute (TBI) pointed to soaring numbers of people reporting poor mental health and claiming benefits since the COVID-19 lockdown era.

“One clear trend is the rise of anxiety particularly since the COVID-19 pandemic. Data from the Annual Population Survey show that prior to the pandemic, self-reported levels of anxiety in the population were relatively stable. Since 2019, however, the number of people reporting high levels of anxiety has surged and remained high, with 23 per cent of working-age adults reporting ‘poor anxiety’ in 2023,” authors for the former prime minister’s organisation wrote.

Mental health conditions are now the most commonly reason cited by people across all age groups who are out of work owing to long-term sickness, the report by the TBI notes.

“The reasons behind this shift remain unclear. It may reflect a rise in true prevalence, but other factors could also be at play – such as distorted financial incentives within the system, overdiagnosis or changing public attitudes and awareness around mental health.

“Whatever the cause, one thing is clear: the current trajectory is unsustainable,” the authors concluded.

The study highlights a 168 percent reported increase in depression, anxiety, and stress among those aged 16–24 in the two decades ending in 2019, with a 42 percent rise seen across all age groups.

It also notes a doubling in the prescribing of ADHD medication since 2018–2019, with the younger age group the main driver behind this increase.

Surging Benefits Bill

Claims for mental health conditions have fuelled a nationwide surge in benefits payments since the lockdown era, with an estimated 25 percent in income tax predicted to be used to fund sickness benefits by the end of this decade, unless the trajectory changes.

An estimated 13.4 percent of all young people aged 16 to 24 were classed as NEET (“not in education, employment, or training”) in October to December 2024, an increase of 1.3 percent compared with October to December 2023, according to the latest release from the Office for National Statistics.

The precise figures are not reliable, because they are based on the statistics agency’s labour market survey, which is hampered by low response rates, especially for younger age groups.

Signage for the Department of Work and Pensions in Westminster, London, in an undated file photo. PA

Research by The King’s Trust, carried out in 2022, shows that one in four classed as NEETs said they would like to work but cannot, owing to their poor mental health, with “lack of confidence” also cited as a major barrier to entering the workforce by 23 percent of young people.

Almost half (46 percent) of those surveyed told The King’s Trust researchers they have additional mental health issues or caring responsibilities owing to the lockdown era which meant they were out of work.

More than half (52 percent), said the longer they were unemployed, the harder they were finding it to get work, while 45 percent said being out of work meant they had lost confidence in their skills.

Youth Guarantee Scheme

Last month, the government announced a series of welfare reforms, including sweeping cuts to disability benefits and an expansion of so-called “back-to-work support,” which it said will help young people diagnosed with mental health problems to enter the workforce.

The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) announced a Youth Guarantee Scheme in November, aimed at giving all 18- to 21-year-olds access to training, an apprenticeship, or support to find work, as part of a broader strategy aimed at tackling worklessness and ill health in the wider population.

Releasing its white paper, the DWP said: “Stark figures show almost one and a half million people are unemployed, over nine million people are inactive [and] a record 2.8 million people are out of work due to long-term sickness.

“Young people have also been left behind with one in eight young people not in education, employment or training, and nine million adults lack the essential skills they need to get on in work.”

The government proposes to set up eight youth “trailblazer” areas across the country, allocating £45 million to identify those “most at risk of falling out of education or employment and match them to opportunities for education, training or work,” with a further £40 million allocated to transform the Apprenticeship system.

However, the BCC said in its report that there was a lack of clarity as to how the youth guarantee scheme will work in practice, and whether there will be sufficient funding to last the entire course of the next Parliament.

“Details of how this will be delivered, and the role of employers, are still unclear. While employers want to support the initiative, the rising cost of employment and the squeeze on training budgets could restrict their ability to participate.”

The BCC noted that there is a “lack of incentive” for small- and medium-sized businesses to take on young people, particularly those classed as NEET, because of the financial risk.

“Employers report that young people are more resource-intensive to train and employ, due to their increased need for pastoral care, and their higher staff turnover. Combined with the likelihood that NEETs may have additional needs such as Special Educational Needs (SEN) or mental health challenges, resource-stretched SMEs may feel unable to offer the support needed,” the authors said, adding that the role of government should be to “derisk” this for businesses that take on and retain these young people.

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Employees working in coal mining and firefighter safety who had been slated for termination have been asked to return to work, according to a U.S. senator and a union that represents them.

Hector Medrano, a firefighter from California, watches the Black Cove Fire as he coordinates a helicopter water drop in Saluda, N.C., on March 26, 2025. Allison Joyce/AP Photo

The workers are employed by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), which is part of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). 

As part of an HHS overhaul, hundreds of NIOSH employees were placed on administrative leave and set to be fired, union officials say.

Employees who work for the Coal Workers’ Health Surveillance Program and the Fire Fighters’ Fatality Investigation and Prevention Program are being reinstated temporarily, the American Federation of Government Employees Local 3430 said on Wednesday. The reinstatement action “allows these dedicated professionals to return to their critical roles in advancing worker safety and health across the country.”

The exact number of affected workers is unclear.

The workers are still on the list to be fired as part of mass terminations scheduled for June 2, the union said.

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), who has been in conversations with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. about reversing some of the cuts, also said she understood the reinstatements to be temporary.

“I am encouraged that some NIOSH functions for coal miner and firefighter safety are slated to resume with some select staff returning to work this week. But my understanding is that this is temporary, so my focus will continue to be on working with HHS on permanently restoring these functions and personnel in the most efficient and effective manner,” Capito wrote on social media platform X.

HHS did not respond to a request for comment.

Kennedy said on X this week that “Firefighter health and safety programs remain a top priority” and that, as HHS works on streamlining operations, “critical services of NIOSH will remain intact.”

A West Virginia coal miner who sued the government in federal court over the cuts said in a recent filing that HHS cannot carry out programs detailed in federal law, such as a screening program for Black Lung, without the workers who were set to be fired.

The government has not yet responded to the legal action. A judge ordered the government to respond by May 2 and to appear in court on May 7.

Kennedy in March announced that HHS would slash about 10,000 jobs in a bid to make the agency more efficient and effective. After many workers were fired, Kennedy told reporters that some of the layoffs were mistakes and that certain employees were being brought back.

The Kremlin has called out the US and Ukraine, for what looks like an emerging trend of Washington essentially dragging Zelensky by the ear toward a peace deal. Russia is saying that ultimately it cannot sign a deal with the United States - but that for the war to end, a legitimate settlement must be made bilaterally with Kiev.

Putin spokesman Dimitry Peskov said Wednesday that even though Russia welcomes the Trump administration's mediation efforts, the reality remains that "A peace deal should be done with the Ukraine, not with America."

Via CNN

"Unfortunately, we haven’t heard any statements in this context from Kiev, so we don’t know whether Kiev is ready or not," Peskov emphasized, strongly suggesting that the Ukrainian side isn't really seeking peace.

The Kremlin reiterated that currently contacts with Ukraine are only at the military level, to broker things like POW exchanges and returns of the wounded and deceased.

President Trump has of late been expressing frustration, somewhat lashing out at both sides - though he's seemed especially frustrated with Zelensky. Ukraine and the US were expected to finally sigh a minerals deal on Wednesday, but a "last minute hurdle" prevented that.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin actually had harsher statements, filling in more details beyond Peskov's exchange with reporters.

"Not a single attempt to declare a ceasefire has in practice been supported by the Kiev regime, which continued to violate the truce. This shows that the regime is staking everything on war," Galuzin told Izvestia, adding: "moreover, Kiev’s self-imposed legislative ban on negotiations with Russia remains in effect."

And separately, Russian roving diplomat for the Donbass, Rodion Miroshnik, said "There is no basis to suggest that Ukraine is ready to alter its actions on the ground in any way. We do not see this happening. All we observe is erratic, pseudo-peacekeeping rhetoric. Hollow declarations of peace are not enough, we do not see any indication that Ukraine is demonstrating or confirming a willingness to pursue a ceasefire."

To review, Russia has this month put forth the following key demands to end the war:

• an end of Ukraine's ban on negotiations with Russia,
• for Ukraine to go back to the status of a neutral and non-aligned country in accordance with the Declaration of State Sovereignty of Ukraine in the 1990's,
• an end of the policies of legally and physically destroy everything Russian: the language, media, culture, traditions, and Russian orthodoxy
• the international recognition of Russia's ownership of Crimea, the DPR, LPR and the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions.

Trump argues it has been easier to deal with Putin than Zelensky pic.twitter.com/TsajLRSaBB

The reality remains that neither Ukraine nor Washington seem any closer to accepting all of these terms, despite months of back-and-forth dialogue, and several rounds of US and Russian delegations meeting. Meanwhile, Zelensky has been coming under threat from some of his own commanders as they warn him not to give up territory to Russia for the sake of peace.

It is impossible to know the degree to which this is typical conflict propaganda, but Pakistan is claiming that India is planning a military strike on its territory, and that this is coming within less than one to two days.

"Pakistan has credible intelligence that India intends to launch a military strike within the next 24 to 36 hours, using the Pahalgam incident as a false pretext," Pakistan's Information Minister Attaullah Tarar wrote on X Tuesday evening.

Via Middle East Institute

"Any act of aggression will be met with a decisive response. India will be fully responsible for any serious consequences in the region," Tarar added.

India has charged that Pakistan harbored the terrorists responsible for the attack on Indian-administered Kashmir which came one week ago and left 26 dead. They were mostly tourists from India visiting the popular and picturesque spot, and the gunmen chose them for execution on the spot because they were Hindu.

Gunfire has already been exchanged between the nuclear-armed rivals over the last several days, with neither side reporting any casualties or major incidents.

The last time there was a major terror attack targeting Indians in Kashmir, the Indian Air Force did respond:

The worst attack in recent years in Indian-run Kashmir was at Pulwama in 2019, when an insurgent rammed a car packed with explosives into a security forces convoy, killing 40 and wounding 35.

Indian fighter jets carried out air strikes on Pakistani territory 12 days later.

Pakistan has meanwhile welcomed China and Russia's efforts to mediate de-escalation, also as the United Nations has urged restraint.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said he is holding dialogue with officials from both sides. "We are reaching out to both parties, and telling, of course, them to not escalate the situation," a statement from the State Dept said.

The only significant military action so far is that Pakistan's military said Tuesday it shot down an Indian spy drone over Kashmir, alleging that the UAV breached Pakistani-administered territory.

Pakistan has credible intelligence that within the next 24 to 36 hours, India is planning military action against Pakistan based on baseless and fabricated accusations related to the Pahalgam incident. – Information Minister Attaullah Tarar#IndiaPakistan #PakistanBehindPahalgam pic.twitter.com/8juDCkUFCJ

The drone reportedly breached the Line of Control (LOC), Pakistani state-run media said, and it was subsequently shot down amid the air space incursion. Pakistani defense officials described to The Associated Press that the drone flew hundreds of feet into Pakistani-administered Kashmir.

And alarmingly, a Pakistani minister, Hanif Abbasi (though he's not in defense or security) days ago warned that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal of more than 130 missiles was "not kept as models" and was aimed “only for India … these ballistic missiles, all of them are targeted at you" - as cited in The Guardian.

In our preview of META's Q1 results this afternoon (ahead of which Goldman's desk had positioning as a 7 out of 10), we said that it feels like centuries ago that META had that 20-day winning streak in Jan/Feb with the name now nearly 30% below YTD highs, which put tactical positioning in cleaner spot into today's print relative to recent META prints (bear case focused on macro/tariff-related risks to Revenues vs elevated capex/expense burdens). Well, the bulls can exhale because the results which META just reported will give them another taste of what that meltup felt lik,  because the stock is surging 5% on a big top and bottom line beat, coupled with an increase to the capex guidance.

Here is are the blowout results which META reported for Q1:

• EPS $6.43 vs. $4.71 y/y, beating estimate $5.25
   
• Revenue $42.31 billion, +16% y/y, beating estimate $41.38 billion
  • Advertising rev. $41.39 billion, +16% y/y, beating estimate $40.55 billion
  • Family of Apps revenue $41.90 billion, +16% y/y, beating estimate $40.89 billion
  • Reality Labs revenue $412 million, -6.4% y/y, missing estimate $496 million
  • Other revenue $510 million, +34% y/y, beating estimate $498.6 million
     
• Operating income $17.56 billion, +27% y/y, beating estimates of $15.52 billion
  • Family of Apps operating income $21.77 billion, +23% y/y, beating estimates of $20.04 billion
  • Reality Labs operating loss $4.21 billion, +9.5% y/y, above the estimated loss $4.54 billion
• Operating margin 41% vs. 38% y/y, beating estimate 37.5%

• Ad impressions +5% vs. +20% y/y, missing estimates of +6.87%
  • Average price per ad +10% vs. +6% y/y, beating estimates of +6.75%
  • Average Family service users per day 3.43 billion, +5.9% y/y, beating estimates of 3.33 billion

Here are some of the key charts from the quarter, starting with Revenue by geography:

EPS:

Segment results:

Expenses continued to shrink:

Users are growing...

... as is revenue per user

Meta needs its advertising business to continue growing in order to fund an expensive expansion in artificial intelligence, which is driving the future of the business through improvements to ads, algorithms and personalization. Sure enough, the guidance was solid, if harldy stellar:

• For Q2, META expects revenue to be in the range of $42.5-45.5 billion, in line with the estimate of $44.1 billion.
• For the full year, META expects total expenses to be in the range of $113-118 billion, down from the prior outlook of $114-119 billion.

But perhaps most important, at a time when everyone was freaking out about sliding capex, Meta boosted its capex forecast, and now sees it be in the range of $64-72 billion, increased from our prior outlook of $60-65 billion. 

This updated outlook "reflects additional data center investments to support our artificial intelligence efforts as well as an increase in the expected cost of infrastructure hardware. The majority of our capital expenditures in 2025 will continue to be directed to our core business."

This is important because while META once again missed on its actual capex, spending $12.94BN on property and equipment in Q1, well below the $14.239BN expected...

... the company is once again hockeysitcking its capex forecast, and is clearly backloading spending in the second half of the year, when at least according to most nevertrumper eceonomists, the US will be in a deep recession.

In response to the blowout earnings, shares rose as much as 5.6% in after-hours trading, after closing at $549. Meta stock was down more than 6% year-to-date before the company reported earnings, still performing better than most of America’s biggest technology companies amid the recent market selloff.

The full META presentation is below (pdf link).

On the heels of Microsoft's decision to walk away from discussions to lease new server farm space and slow construction on land it already owns, all eyes are on the giant tech company's fiscal third-quarter earnings tonight for any signs of slowing on data center spending plans when it reports Wednesday.

“We believe that the Azure results and guidance as well as Microsoft’s commentary on capex are going to be the keys to the quarter,” wrote Kirk Materne, an analyst at Evercore ISI.

Investors watch these expenses closely for a glimpse of long-term cloud and AI demand expectations from the world’s largest software maker.

So, what's the score?

MSFT beat on EVERYTHING...

Microsoft beat on the top line with Q3 revenues of $70.07 Billion (well above the $68.48 billion consensus) and the bottom line (EPS $3.46 vs $3.22 consensus)

• Microsoft Cloud revenue $42.4 billion, estimate $42.22 billion

• Intelligent Cloud revenue $26.8 billion, estimate $25.99 billion

• Azure and other cloud services revenue Ex-FX +33%, estimate +31%

• Productivity and Business Processes revenue $29.9 billion, estimate $29.65 billion

• More Personal Computing revenue $13.4 billion, estimate $12.67 billion

Cloud revenue surged more than expected with revenues of $42.4 billion (above the $42.22 billion consensus),

“We delivered a strong quarter with Microsoft Cloud revenue of $42.4 billion, up 20% (up 22% in constant currency) year-over-year driven by continued demand for our differentiated offerings,” said Amy Hood, executive vice president and chief financial officer of Microsoft.

Azure & Other Cloud revenue (es-FX) up 35% (better than the 31% consensus).

...AI growth making up 16ppts of that 35% (exp 15.6ppts)...

“Cloud and AI are the essential inputs for every business to expand output, reduce costs, and accelerate growth," said Satya Nadella, chairman and chief executive officer of Microsoft. 

“From AI infra and platforms to apps, we are innovating across the stack to deliver for our customers.”

Operating income was also a solid beat: $32.00 billion, estimate $30.31 billion

But after 10 consecutive quarters of increased spending for artificial intelligence, the company has put on the brakes.

While top-line capital expenditure was $16.75 billion vs. $10.95 billion y/y (above the $16.28 billion consensus)

But, in the first three months of 2025, Microsoft spent $21.4 billion on Capital expenditures including assets acquired under finance leases, down more than $1 billion from the previous quarter (and below the $22.56 billion consensus).

The company is still on track to spend more than $80 billion on capital expenses in the current fiscal year, which ends in June. But, as The NY Times notes, the pullback, though slight, is an indication that the tech industry’s appetite for spending on A.I. is not limitless.

As a result of all this, MSFT shares are soaring after hours...

...and we can't help but wonder if someone 'knew' about this 'early' given the moves in the market in the last minutes before the bell.

All eyes now on the call for any signals of a reduction in CapEx (expected at $88 billion for the fiscal year ending in June and $100 billion for the following fiscal year).

A slowdown in economic activity, combined with growing tariff uncertainty, appears to be curbing consumer appetite for highly processed junk food. The latest trends show a declining demand for sweet snacks in North America as more shoppers shift their spending toward real food, such as meat, vegetables, and eggs. 

Mondelez International — the maker of Sour Patch Kids, Oreos, Ritz, Toblerone, Cadbury, and other highly processed food brands — reported slower-than-expected sales for the first quarter.

Organic revenue, which excludes currency fluctuations and one-time items, increased 3.1%, falling short of the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 3.5%. Notably, sales in North America declined during the quarter. 

On an earnings call, Mondelez CEO Dirk Van de Put told analysts: "I really do not expect to see a significant improvement in consumer confidence in the near term in the US." 

"Two, three years ago consumers would easily pay above $4 for a pack of biscuits," Van de Put said adding, "We're now seeing that we need to be below $4 and ideally below $3."

Mondelez noted that shoppers are beginning to prioritize real food — if that's meat, vegetables, and eggs — over snacks, chips, and candy. Also, lower-income consumers are pivoting towards smaller packages, while higher-income consumers are searching for larger value bundles. 

Mondelez reiterated its full-year guidance and warned profit will slide 10% this year "due to unprecedented cocoa cost inflation."

Weighing in on the North American junk food slowdown, Goldman analysts Leah Jordan and Eli Thompson offered clients their first take on Mondelez's first-quarter results and its unchanged full-year outlook:

1. North America came in softer-than-expected on the back of retailer destocking and softer cracker demand as the consumer remains value-focused;

2. chocolate elasticity tracked in-line with expectations, although more pricing is still to come; and

3. MDLZ reiterated its FY25 guide in constant currency while potential upside is likely to be reinvested throughout the year to support potential growth in FY26

The key takeaway for the North American market:

• North America softer-than-expected: Organic net sales in North America came in softer-than-expected at -3.6% (vs GS/consensus of flat/+0.1%), largely due to retailer destocking (-250 bps), while segment profitability also missed. The destocking impact should be one time in nature, but we do not expect it to reverse as we have heard from retailers that this effort has been driven by efficiency gains. Additionally, MDLZ noted softer demand for crackers (vs cookies), although both categories are holding up relatively better than other parts of snacking, plus the company is holding share due to investments in price pack architecture and key activations. Additionally, management spoke to increasing promotional activity by peers in crackers, and we see greater private label competition in the category as well. Regarding consumer behavior, the company noted a shift to smaller pack sizes by the lower end and toward multi-packs for upper income cohorts, along with a shift in channels toward dollar stores, clubs, and value retailers.

Details about the cocoa market:

• Chocolate elasticity tracking in-line, although more pricing still to come: MDLZ indicated elasticity within chocolate tracked in-line with expectations at -0.5%, while it gained share in the category. However, more pricing will be implemented in the spring with management taking a wait and see approach while expressing confidence in its chocolate strategy with a range of price points. The company expects a top line acceleration throughout the year, supported by both pricing and volumes, with Easter strength noted for 2Q and pricing negotiations are now complete in Europe (vs a disruption last year). By region, management highlighted solid Easter chocolate demand for Europe/UK, Brazil, and Australia, with stable YTD elasticities noted for Europe and Emerging Markets. Notably, MDLZ indicated greater elasticity for chocolate in the U.S. vs ROW with volumes tracking down -5%, which is a negative read-through for HSY.

Notes on guidance:

• Reiterated FY25 guide with potential upside expected to be reinvested: MDLZ reiterated its FY25 guidance with an adj EPS decline of -10% (constant currency), noting potential upside would likely be reinvested (e.g., 1Q beat planned to be reinvested in marketing this year), while the tariff impact remains small. FY25 organic sales guidance was also reiterated at +5%, with sequential improvements supported by both volume and pricing. We also expect a gross margin improvement throughout the year tied to its pricing action. Regarding FY26, MDLZ expects EPS growth y/y, but management stopped short on the magnitude of potential ranges given cocoa uncertainty. For cocoa, the company still sees a supply/demand surplus with further demand destruction likely (as some will likely reformulate). Furthermore, the company sounded constructive on its position given lower cocoa butter prices y/y, its bigger input exposure.

Despite key downside risks, such as an economic slowdown, Goldman analysts remained "Buy" rated on Mondelez, with a 12-month price target of $71. 

Mondelez did not indicate that the slowdown in junk food demand was influenced by the "Make America Healthy Again" movement in any way (well at least not yet). 

Via American Greatness,

Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) has reintroduced the “Preventing Elected Leaders from Owning Securities and Investments” (PELOSI) Act that would prohibit members of Congress and their families from trading stocks while in office.

The name of the act is a direct nod in the direction of 20 term Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) whose net worth has soared from $160,000 when she was first elected in 1987 to more than $140 million in 2024.

The bill to ban congressional stock trading is entitled the PELOSI Act, or "Preventing Elected Leaders from Owning Securities and Investments."

I usually don't like cute names for pieces of legislation, but this one hit the nail on the head. Bravo.

Pass it!! pic.twitter.com/pN8nicKJRx

Pelosi’s husband Paul, who narrowly survived a hammer attack 2022, is an investor who has made significant financial gains on stock trades that some speculate may have been based on insider information.

Hawley first introduced the PELOSI Act in 2023 but it failed to gain traction under the Biden administration.

Since then, the proposal has gained support on both sides of the congressional aisle and Fox News reports that President Trump has said he would “absolutely” sign the ban if it arrives on his desk.

Hawley has been a consistent critic of members of Congress being more focused on day-trading than they are on representing their constituents.

In a statement, Hawley said, “Americans have seen politician after politician turn a profit using information not available to the general public. It’s time we ban all members of Congress from trading and holding stocks and restore Americans’ trust in our nation’s legislative body.”

The PELOSI Act would prohibit lawmakers and their spouses from purchasing, selling or holding stocks during the time that the lawmaker is in office.

Lawmakers would still be able to invest in U.S. Treasury Bonds, diversified mutual funds or exchange-traded funds while in office.

Should the PELOSI Act be signed into law, current members of Congress would have 180 days to comply with newly elected members being required to comply with in 180 days of entering office.

Lawmakers who violate the act would be required to hand over their profits to the U.S. Treasury Department and could also face fines of up to 10% on each transaction.

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal appeals court on April 29 turned down the Trump administration’s bid to block restrictions on deporting Venezuelans from Colorado.

Venezuelan illegal immigrants deported from the United States disembark from a Conviasa Airlines plane upon arrival at Simon Bolivar International Airport in Maiquetia, Venezuela, on March 24, 2025. Juan Barreto/AFP via Getty Images

The government did not show that it is likely to be irreparably harmed if a lower court order remains in place, a unanimous three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit ruled.

Under court precedent, a party seeking a stay pending appeal must show it will likely be irreparably harmed absent a stay.

U.S. District Judge Charlotte N. Sweeney recently issued a temporary restraining order requiring the Trump administration to give Venezuelans arrested for alleged links to the Tren de Aragua gang three weeks’ notice before deportation.

The order applies to all noncitizens in Colorado who were, are, or will be subject to President Donald Trump’s March invocation of the Alien Enemies Act. The president at the time said that Tren de Aragua had invaded the United States, and he directed officials to arrest and deport its members.

“All members of the class are in federal custody. And given the important unresolved issues under the Alien Enemies Act (AEA) and the ruling of the United States Supreme Court that no one in that proceeding be removed under the AEA until further order of that Court ... there is no realistic possibility that the government could remove any member of the class from this country before final expiration of the TRO on May 6, 2025,” the 10th Circuit panel stated.

Lawyers for the government and the plaintiffs in the case did not respond to early morning requests for comment.

Four factors must be met to secure a stay pending appeal. The appeals court did not address the other three factors, which include presenting a strong showing that a party is likely to succeed in the case since the irreparable harm standard was not met, the judges said.

The panel consisted of U.S. Circuit Judges Harris L. Hartz, Gregory A. Phillips, and Joel M. Carson.

Government lawyers had said in filings that Sweeney lacked jurisdiction to halt deportations because the plaintiffs were not in custody at the time of the ruling. Immigration and Customs Enforcement had released the plaintiffs because it determined they were not subject to the Alien Enemies Act.

The lawyers also argued that the restraining order “irreparably harms the United States’ conduct of foreign policy” because it “usurps the President’s statutory and constitutional authority to address what he has identified as an invasion or predatory incursion.”

Attorneys representing the Venezuelans had said in response that the restraining order was proper because the government had been giving people arrested under the invocation just 24 hours’ notice of removal, which they said did not achieve due process.

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

Last year, central banks purchased approximately 34 million ounces of gold, marking the third consecutive year of near-record buying.

We’re witnessing the acceleration of a long-term trend that began around the 2008 financial crisis, when central banks shifted from net sellers to net buyers of gold. That trend has exploded in recent years, with gold purchases surging to record-breaking levels, as shown in the chart below.

All signs indicate that 2025 will be another massive year for central bank gold buying.

Central banks and governments are the largest single holders of gold in the world. Together, they officially own over 1.2 billion troy ounces—out of the 6.9 billion ounces humans have mined throughout history.

However, these are just the official numbers that governments report. The actual gold holdings could be much higher, as governments tend to be secretive about their reserves, treating gold as a strategic financial asset.

Russia and China—the US’s top geopolitical rivals—have been the biggest gold buyers over the last two decades.

It’s no secret that China has been stashing away as much gold as possible for many years.

China is the world’s largest producer and buyer of gold. Russia is number two. Most of that gold enters the Chinese and Russian government’s vaults.

The trend of central bank gold accumulation is gaining momentum. If the rest of the world is moving back toward gold, the US will not want to be left behind.

Yet, officially, the US has not added a single ounce to its 261 million ounces of gold reserves in decades.

Unofficially? That may be a different story.

Since Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election last November, a sudden flood of physical gold has flowed into the US from major gold hubs like London, Switzerland, and elsewhere.

The gold market is typically dominated by paper trading, with large-scale physical deliveries being rare. However, CNBC and the World Gold Council report that more than 19 million ounces—possibly much more—of physical gold has entered the US since November.

That’s roughly 13% of the total alleged gold holdings in Fort Knox flowing into the US in less than six months.

This is not normal market action.

This strongly suggests that a non-market entity—most likely the US government—is behind this massive gold movement.

That’s why Trump’s recent comments about Fort Knox are so interesting.

Trump recently brought Fort Knox into the national conversation, something no US president has done in decades.

Would he have even mentioned the possibility of auditing Fort Knox if the vaults were empty? I doubt it.

Instead, there’s a good chance that the enormous inflow of physical gold into the US is happening in anticipation of an audit.

Connecting the Dots—Something Big Is Coming

So, here’s what we know:

1. Trump has put Fort Knox’s gold holdings back in the national spotlight for the first time in decades.

2. Central bank gold purchases are accelerating at record-breaking levels.

3. An unusually large influx of physical gold is flowing into the US, far beyond regular market activity.

Follow the Gold. It Always Leads to the Truth

Central banks are hoarding gold at record levels. The US government is likely pulling in millions of ounces. And Trump is talking about Fort Knox.

This isn’t coincidence.

Find out what they’re preparing for and how you can be ready in our urgent dispatch:

The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years… the Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now

Click here see it now.

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal judge in California has barred U.S. Border Patrol agents from arresting suspected illegal immigrants within parts of the state without a warrant or specific evidence that the individual poses a flight risk—while delivering a rebuke to tactics used during a controversial January enforcement sweep.

Border Patrol agents wait for the arrival of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for a visit to the US-Mexico border in Sunland Park, New Mexico, on Feb. 3, 2025. AP Photo/Andres Leighton, File

In an April 29 order, U.S. District Judge Jennifer L. Thurston issued a preliminary injunction against the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Border Patrol, siding with the United Farm Workers and five Kern County residents who sued after the raid, dubbed “Operation Return to Sender,” unfolded across the Bakersfield area earlier this year.

The plaintiffs, represented by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), alleged in their Feb. 26 complaint that the sweep violated their Fourth and Fifth Amendment rights, along with federal immigration statutes governing warrantless arrests and due process.

Under Thurston’s order, Border Patrol agents operating in California’s Eastern District are now prohibited from making detentions or arrests without first establishing reasonable suspicion of unlawful presence in the country and, for arrests, probable cause that the individual is likely to flee before a warrant can be obtained.

“The evidence before the Court is that Border Patrol agents under DHS authority engaged in conduct that violated well-established constitutional rights,” Thurston wrote in the ruling.

The court also restricted the agency’s use of “voluntary departure,” a process by which illegal immigrants agree to leave the United States without a hearing before an immigration judge. Going forward, agents must clearly inform individuals of their rights and obtain genuine, informed consent before initiating such removals.

The judge further ordered DHS to submit regular reports documenting any warrantless stops or arrests, along with justifications, for the duration of litigation. She also instructed DHS to issue written guidelines clarifying the legal threshold for initiating stops.

“This guidance shall include, among other things, that refusal to answer questions does not, without more, constitute a basis for reasonable suspicion to justify a detentive stop,” she wrote.

The case stems from allegations that, beginning in early January 2025, dozens of Border Patrol agents traveled more than 300 miles inland from the U.S.–Mexico border to Bakersfield, targeting predominantly Latino neighborhoods and day laborer gathering spots without individualized suspicion.

The plaintiffs described “Operation Return to Sender” as a sweeping dragnet based on racial and occupational profiling, claiming agents pulled over vehicles, blocked parked cars, conducted warrantless searches, and detained people without evidence of unlawful presence.

Once in custody, detainees were allegedly transported to a facility near the border, denied access to attorneys, and pressured into signing “voluntary departure” forms without understanding the consequences—a process plaintiffs described as “summary expulsion” that can carry long-term reentry bans.

Once in custody, detainees claimed they were transported to a Border Patrol facility near the border, where they were denied access to lawyers and coerced into signing “voluntary departure” forms under misleading pretenses, which they described as a “form of summary expulsion.”

Attorneys for the Justice Department argued the case should be dismissed, claiming the plaintiffs lacked standing and that no official policy mandated unlawful stops or arrests. They further contended that any potential violations were isolated incidents, not part of a broader pattern, and that the lawsuit had become moot after DHS issued revised internal guidance.

But the court rejected those arguments, finding that the plaintiffs demonstrated a credible threat of repeated harm. Thurston wrote that the new DHS policy did not eliminate the risk of future violations and “could be withdrawn or altered in the future” without constraint.

The Epoch Times contacted the Justice Department and the ACLU with requests for comment on the ruling.

There were good and bad news in today's GDP report.

Starting with the bad news, Q1 GDP printed -0.3%, worse than the -0.2% expected and the first negative print since Q1 2022 when the economy was in a recession but was subsequently revised out of it

The good news is that the drop was actually supposed to be much worse (recall the Atlanta Fed's latest GDP estimate was -2.7%, or -1.5% excluding record gold imports). Indeed, if one looks at the components of today's GDP print one finds that the number was actually unexpectedly strong, if one strips out the two negative components, net trade and government.

As shown in the chart below, Q1 GDP comprised of the following components:

• Personal Consumption 1.21%, down from 2.70%, but translating into an annualized Personal Consumption print of 1.8%, much higher than the 1.2% expected
• Fixed investment jumped to 1.34%, up from -0.2% and the highest since Q2 2023 as the BEA finally starts tracking data center investment correctly
• Change in private inventories surged 2.25%, as expected, on the pre-tariff restocking; this number was up from a -0.84% drop last quarter and is expected to reverse in coming quarters as inventories are sold off.
• Government spending was a negative -0.25%, the first negative print for Joe Biden's favorite "plug" to push GDP higher since 2022.
• Finally, and most importantly, net trade (exports less imports) was a whopping 4.830% hit to the final GDP number, a 5% swing from the +0.26% contribution in Q4. This was entirely the result of soaring imports (of which gold was about half) in Q1 which hit GDP by a near record 5.03%. Just like inventories, this number will now reverse in coming quarters as tariff frontrunning ends and is reversed.

And visually:

Taking a closer look at the import contribution to GDP, which was the biggest swing factor, one can see that at 5.03%, this was the 2nd highest on record with just the outlier covid shock bigger. In other words, absent economic shock, this was a record quarterly print.

In its commentary, the BEA confirmed as much, writing that "the decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports."

Compared to the fourth quarter, the downturn in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an upturn in imports, a deceleration in consumer spending, and a downturn in government spending that were partly offset by upturns in investment and exports.

Turning to inflation, the BEA reported that the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent.

Putting these in context, GDP Price index of 3.7% came in hotter than the 3.1% expected, while the core PCE of 3.5% was also hotter than the 3.1%.

Bottom line, the GDP number was much stronger than expected, in fact it was a whopping 2.4% higher than the now laughable AtlantaFed GDP forecast, and if anything this positions the Trump admin for a surprise bounce in Q2 and/or Q3 when all the outlier prints from Q1 are reversed.

US equity futures slipped ahead of key GDP and PCE data. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% while Nasdaq 100 contracts lose 0.5%, with Mag 7 names mostly lower (NVDA -1.4%, TSLA -1.1% and META -0.6%) as weak earnings weighed on risk sentiment after Super Micro plunged 16% ahead of Microsoft and Meta numbers later on Wednesday. Bond yields are lower by 1bps to 4.15% while the USD is higher. Overnight, China’s factory PMI slipped into the worst contraction since December 2023 (49 vs 49.7 cons) due to the negative impact of higher US tariffs, while Trump at a rally in Michigan renewed his criticism of Powell, noting he is "not really doing a good job" and that he knows more about interest rates. This morning, Euro Area flash CPI has been mixed, while Q1 GDP data was slightly firmer than expected at 1.2% YoY (vs 1.1% cons). Commodities are mixed: oil is 1.8% lower; previous metals are lower, while base metals are mostly higher. After yesterday’s close, earnings were modestly negative. Particularly, SBUX fell 6.7% on missed earnings amid margin pressure and top-line growth. BKNG commented that there is a moderation in inbound travel into the US, but so far the global leisure travel demand has been stable. Looking ahead today, we have ADP employment, Q1 GDP, PCE and employment cost index. There are no Fed speakers scheduled given blackout ahead of May's FOMC meeting.

In premarket trading the Mag7 stocks were mostly lower (Alphabet -0.1%, Amazon -0.6%, Apple -0.4%, Meta Platforms -0.9%, Microsoft +0.1%, Nvidia -2%, Tesla -1.3%). First Solar tumbled 12% after the maker of electricity-producing solar modules cut earnings guidance for this year due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Norwegian Cruise Line dropped 7% after warning that cruise demand, which has long defied worrying travel trends, is beginning to weaken.  Snap plunged 13% after the company declined to issue a sales forecast for the current period, saying it is navigating macroeconomic “headwinds” for its advertising business. Starbucks slumped 8% after weaker-than-expected results in the latest quarter amped up pressure for the company’s new management to deliver. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO) rallies 9% after the drugmaker reported sales of its recently approved heart drug, Attruby, that crushed expectations.
• Etsy (ETSY) rises 1% after the online marketplace for crafts reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Freshworks Inc. (FRSH) climbs 9% after the software-as-a-service company boosted its profit and revenue outlook for the year.
• Garmin (GRMN) falls 6% after the maker of GPS-enabled products posted first-quarter results and provided a year forecast.
• Oddity Tech (ODD) jumps 17% after the direct-to-consumer beauty and wellness company boosted its net revenue guidance for the full year to a level above Wall Street expectations.
• Qorvo (QRVO) climbs 8% after the Apple supplier reported adjusted 4Q earnings that topped estimates.
• Regulus Therapeutics (RGLS) shares are halted after the company entered into an agreement to be acquired by Novartis AG.
• Seagate (STX) gains 7% after the computer hardware and storage company reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat the average analyst estimate
• Stride Inc. (LRN) climbs 3% after the online education company boosted its revenue forecast for the full year. Fiscal third-quarter revenue increased 18%.
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) tumbles 16% after giving preliminary results that fell well short of analysts’ estimates, a sign its comeback plan has been slow to gain traction.
• Tenable (TENB) plunges 17% after the cybersecurity company cut its full-year guidance, with analysts noting lower visibility ahead for the stock due to US federal spending uncertainties.
• Wabash National (WNC) falls 13% after the semi-trailer manufacturing company cut its revenue guidance for the full year.

Investors have been cautiously optimistic, with the Nasdaq 100 close to erasing all of its losses this month, after tariff U-turns and speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to prevent a recession.  

“Perhaps we are past peak uncertainty,” Kim Crawford, global rates portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. “The administration has a more conciliatory tone on tariffs and to an extent as well, Fed independence.” Benchmark 10-year Treasuries steadied after six days of gains, with the yield at 4.16%. Gold dropped.

Four of the so-called Magnificent Seven — Microsoft, Apple Inc., Meta and Amazon.com Inc. — are reporting earnings this week. Analysts expect the group — which also includes Google-parent Alphabet Inc., Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. — to deliver an average of 15% profit growth in 2025, a forecast that’s barely budged since the start of March despite the flareup in trade tensions.

“Even if you take out the tariff story outcome I think there is an issue for Big Tech and the market will probably start to refocus on that when we get this earnings season,” Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, told Bloomberg TV. “We still have the issue of the massive amount of capex being spent on Big Tech, they’re overspending on this AI story.”

Economic barometers of US economic health are also due with inflation and GDP data Wednesday that will give a snapshot of activity just before President Donald Trump unleashed country-specific levies on April 2. US real GDP growth likely cooled to a standstill in the first quarter amid disruptions from policy shifts, according to Bloomberg Economics.

Veteran emerging-markets investor Mark Mobius said he’s keeping 95% of his funds’ holdings in cash as he waits out the trade-related uncertainty. Hedge funds are reluctant to make major bets amid the turmoil, with the only significant shift in positioning in April being increased bets against US stocks, Bloomberg reported.

In the latest pivot in Trump’s trade strategy, the US president signed an executive order easing the impact of his auto tariffs, preventing duties on foreign-made vehicles from stacking on top of other levies and lessening charges on parts from overseas used to make vehicles in the US. The news supported sentiment toward European auto stocks Wednesday, with Mercedes-Benz Group AG and Stellantis NV rising even after withdrawing their outlooks for this year, citing the uncertainty of trade barriers. 

In a rally celebrating his first 100 days in office, Trump defended his tariff policies as he marked his 100th day in office. He also renewed criticism of Fed Chair Powell, saying he is “not really doing a good job.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises for a seventh consecutive session, albeit only slightly, as disappointing earnings keep a lid on gains. Travel & leisure stocks are the worst performers. Energy and bank stocks also underperform with notable declines in TotalEnergies and Credit Agricole after their respective updates. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

• Societe Generale shares advanced 5.7% after the French lender beat estimates as equities trading hit a record and it booked a gain on disposals.
• DSV shares rise as much as 11% after the Danish logistics firm gave a reassuring set of results, with analysts highlighting the synergies it set out from its DB Schenker deal.
• Schindler shares gain as much as 8.2% after the Swiss elevator and escalator maker reported impressive 1Q results with a dynamic order intake and no change in guidance despite US tariffs.
• Stellantis shares rise as much as 4.2% in Milan after the carmaker released a trading update which Bernstein said included some positives, with pricing ahead of expectations in all key regions.
• VW shares rise as much as 1.4% after the German carmaker reiterated its full-year guidance, a move JPMorgan called a positive signal.
• Deutsche Post shares rise as much as 4.1% after the delivery firm’s Ebit came in higher than expected in the first quarter, driven by its Express and Post & Parcel divisions and aided by cost-cutting.
• Aixtron shares climb as much as 14% after the German chip-tool company’s first-quarter results showed better-than-expected revenue, order levels and positive free cash flow, according to Warburg.
• Remy shares rise as much as 5.7% as analysts highlighted encouraging signs in the Cognac maker’s earnings, including an improvement in its US market as well as a better outlook for 2026.
• UMG climbs as much as 7.1% as subscription growth helps to deliver first-quarter results above expectations.
• Befesa shares rise as much as 13% after the German recycling company’s full-year earnings guidance surprised to the upside.
• AMS-Osram shares soar 17%, with ZKB analysts saying the Swiss chipmaker reported a good start to the year due to strong performance in its semiconductor business.
• Credit Agricole fell as much as 4.5% as higher-than-expected costs and a tax bill weighed on profit.
• TotalEnergies shares fall as much as 4.3% after the French energy company reported results that were in line with expectations, but also an increase in net debt.
• Mercedes shares drop as much as 2.8% after the carmaker said tariff volatility is too high to give a reliable outlook.
• Evolution shares drop as much as 18%. The gambling operator reported a miss on revenue and Ebitda in the first quarter, which management attributes to actions including ring-fencing regulated markets in Europe and countermeasures to cyberattacks in Asia.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, on track for a fourth-straight day of gains, as investors were encouraged by a continued rally on Wall Street and optimism over potential trade deals with the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7%. Sony was among the biggest boosts after Bloomberg reported it is considering spinning off its semiconductor unit, while AIA climbed on strong quarterly results. The regional benchmark is poised to close April more than 2% higher, wiping out a steep intra-month loss sparked by US tariffs. The market has been looking toward various concessions from Washington as well as individual nations’ negotiations with the US. President Donald Trump on Tuesday signed an executive order easing the impact of his auto tariffs, while news emerged of discussions with South Korea and Australia. China’s manufacturing activity in April saw its worst contraction since December 2023, exposing early signs of weakness in Asia’s biggest economy from the trade war with the US. Shares of Chinese banks were among the biggest drags on equity benchmarks in Hong Kong and mainland China after weak earnings. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed. The Aussie dollar outperforms rising 0.2% against the greenback after core inflation rose more than expected. AUD/USD rose as much as 0.5% to 0.6418 before paring the move; the nation’s core inflation in the first quarter beat estimates, damping expectations of rapid rate cuts. The pound and the yen were among the worst performers, down 0.3% and 0.4% against the dollar respectively.

In rates, treasuries mixed with the long-end outperforming where yields are down around 2bp on the day, supported by wider gains seen across the long-end of Germany and UK bonds after a flurry of European economic data. Ahead of today's quarterly refunding announcement, the 10-year US yield are down 1bps to 4.16%. US yields slightly cheaper across the front-end while richer in the long-end of the curve, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 1.8bp and 2.5bp on the day; US 10-year yields trade down to around 4.16%, richer by 1bp on the day with bunds and gilts outperforming by 2bp and 2.5bp in the sector. European government bonds gain with little reaction shown to a flurry of economic data releases, including a beat for euro-area first quarter GDP. European government bonds rose; German yields were up to 4bps lower across the curve, with gilts mirroring that move; UK 10-year yield down 4bps to 4.40%

In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 1% to $59.80 a barrel. Spot gold falls $36 to around $3,280/oz. Bitcoin is steady near $94,800. 

US economic calendar includes April ADP employment change (8:15am), 1Q advanced GDP (8:30am), April MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am), March personal income/spending, PCE price index, pending home sales (10am). Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the May 7 FOMC meeting

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
• DAX +0.5%, CAC 40 +0.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.16%
• VIX +0.3 points at 24.48
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1222.44
• euro -0.1% at $1.1371
• WTI crude -1.3% at $59.63/barrel

Top Overnight News

• US President Trump said he achieved the 100 most successful days for a president in US history, while he noted a lot of auto jobs and companies are coming in and we're restoring the rule of law and ending the inflation nightmare. Trump renewed his criticism of Jerome Powell, saying the Fed chair’s “not really doing a good job.” He also championed his tariff regime at a rally that came just hours after he signed a pair of executive orders pulling back some of his auto levies.
• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio plans to speak with the foreign ministers of India and Pakistan in an attempt to calm tensions. BBG
• Trump continues to float fresh tax cut proposals while Republicans struggle to agree on ways to lower the cost of the reconciliation bill. Axios
• Top Trump advisor reportedly struggled to soothe investors in talks after market tumult in which Stephen Miran met with hedge funds and big asset managers after tariffs sparked Wall Street turmoil, according to FT.
• China’s factory PMI slipped into the worst contraction since December 2023, revealing early damage of US tariffs. Beijing has created a list of US-made products that would be exempted from its 125% tariffs. BBG
• Chinese sovereign investor CIC is selling about $1 billion of its private equity investment portfolio in the secondary market. The assets are held in a number of funds managed by eight U.S. fund managers, including Blackstone Inc and Carlyle Group. RTRS
• Huawei has started the delivery of its advanced AI chip “cluster” to Chinese clients who are increasing orders after being cut off from Nvidia’s semiconductors because of Washington’s export restrictions. FT
• Japan eco data falls short for Mar, including retail sales (-1.2% M/M vs. the Street -0.7%) and industrial production (-1.1% M/M vs. the Street -0.4%). BBG
• The euro-area economy grew 0.4% last quarter, more than expected, though is yet to feel the full force of US tariffs. The German and French economies returned to growth. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newquawk

APAC stocks failed to sustain the positive handover from Wall St and traded mixed at month-end as the region digested a slew of data including disappointing Chinese official PMIs, while there was a muted reaction and very few surprises from US President Trump's speech to commemorate his first 100 days back in office. ASX 200 eked mild gains as strength in tech, healthcare and financials offset the losses in the utilities and commodity-related sectors but with the upside limited after firmer-than-expected CPI data saw money markets fully price out the chances of a larger 50bps RBA rate cut in May. Nikkei 225 was choppy with the upside contained following disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales, while the BoJ also kick-started its two-day policy meeting and there were some comments from a group representing major foreign automakers which noted that President Trump's latest tariff order for autos provides some relief but more must be done. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive after official Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs disappointed although Caixin Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts, while the mainland heads into a five-day weekend owing to Labor Day holiday closures and participants also reflected on key earnings releases including disappointing results from China's Big 4 banks.

Top Asian News

• Chinese President Xi says China is to adjust economic plans based on global change; to promote transformation of traditional industries; says they are to stabilize markets and expectations Urges to address weak links in economy. Urges to achieve goals in all aspects. Says to understand impact of changes in international situation. Says China to optimize economic planning based on situations. Urges measures to stabilize employment. Says to promote transformation of traditional industries. Says China to adjust economic plan based on global change. Says China needs to adapt to changing situations.
• China NPC standing committee passed the private sector promotion law which will take effect from May 20th.
• Australian Treasurer Chalmers said the market expects more interest rate cuts after inflation figures and he doesn't see anything in the data as substantially altering market expectations.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) opened mostly firmer and have traded tentatively within a tight range ahead of the day’s key risk events. European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Media (lifted by post-earning strength in UMG) and Telecoms takes the top spots, whilst Travel & Leisure and Basic Resources underperform. rnings include: Mercedes Benz (-0.8%) down Y/Y, high uncertainty noted; Volkswagen (U/C) miss, expects results at lower-end of guidance; UBS (+0.2%) beat; Stellantis (+1.5%) in-line, suspends guidance; Barclays (-0.3%) beat, upgrades NII guidance; GSK (+4%) beat; TotalEnergies (-3.2%) mixed, continue buybacks, confident in growth objective; ASM International (U/C) orders & margin beat; Air France (+1.6%) beat, confirms outlook; Iberdrola (-1.3%) mixed, expect strong performance ahead.

Top European News

• Germany's SPD has approved the coalition deal with the CDU/CSU, via Reuters citing sources. SPD's Klingbeil will be the Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister of the new German Government, according to German media.

FX

• DXY is currently building on Tuesday's gains in quiet trade. The two main drivers for price action were relief on the tariff front (autos) and soft US data (JOLTS and Consumer Confidence). Data will likely provide some impetus for the Greenback today with Q1 GDP/PCE and monthly PCE due on the docket. Q1 GDP may be seen as stale in some quarters given its precedes the announcement of US tariffs. DXY has ventured as high as 99.43 with Monday's peak at 99.83.
• EUR softer vs. the USD in what has been a busy morning of data which kicked off with steady French GDP, hot French inflation and in-line German GDP which saw the nation avoid a technical recession, but ultimately showed a Y/Y contraction. Thereafter, Eurozone GDP exceeded expectations (Q/Q 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2%) but failed to have any sway on the EUR given that it doesn't capture the impact of Trump's tariffs (aside from some potential front-loading of orders).
• USD/JPY is higher after Japanese Industrial Production and Retail Sales disappointed overnight, prompting concerns over a negative outturn for Q1 GDP. Attention now turns to the BoJ, where the Bank is expected to keep rates steady. USD/JPY is north of Tuesday's high at 142.75 but is yet to approach the 143 mark.
• GBP is slightly softer vs. the USD and EUR with fresh macro drivers on the light side. Tier 2 data via the Lloyds Business Barometer and Nationwide House Index had little sway on GBP. On the trade front, the Guardian reports that US officials have split trade negotiations into three phases; the UK has reportedly been placed in either phase two or three. UK officials are also concerned that any EU-UK deal could make negotiations with the US more challenging.
• AUD is the marginal outperformer across the majors on account of firm inflation metrics overnight (Q/Q 0.9% vs. exp. 0.8%, Y/Y 2.4% vs. exp. 2.3%).
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2014 vs exp. 7.2670 (Prev. 7.2029).

Fixed Income

• A relatively contained start to the session with USTs holding onto Tuesday’s spoils, firmer by a handful of ticks in a 112-03 to 112-09 band. Limited resistance in the near-term, nothing of particular note until 114-03+ from early April and thereafter 114-10. On the data front, the docket begins with ADP as a preview into Friday’s NFP. Thereafter, Q1 GDP, PCE and Employment Costs due. Afterwards, we get the monthly PCE figure.
• Bunds began the morning holding at the top-end of Tuesday’s 131.16-46 parameters, in-fitting with USTs. Then, after the European cash equity open, EGBs began to gradually pick up and despite being knocked briefly by marginally hotter German state CPI metrics than mainland consensus implies, Bunds are at a fresh 131.74 peak. EZ GDP metrics came in above expectations, but ultimately had little impact on the complex given the survey period does not include the implementation of Trump tariffs. German 2041 & 2044 outings were mixed, but ultimately had little impact on the complex.
• Gilts are outperforming, gapped higher by just over 10 ticks and then in-fitting with EGBs after the cash equity open began to extend higher and hit a 93.68 high for the session. Strength occurs despite a lack of fresh drivers in today’s session thus far aside from supply, an auction that came in strong with another b/c well clear of the 3x mark and a slim tail. Results sparked a modest bid in Gilts but one that occurred within existing 93.35-68 confines.
• UK sells GBP 4.5bln 4.375% 2028 Gilt: b/c 3.48x (prev. 3.27x), average yield 3.834% (prev. 4.263%) & tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.4bps).
• Germany sells EUR 1.143bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.60% 2041 and EUR 0.452bln vs exp. EUR 0.5bln 2.50% 2044 Bunds.

Commodities

• Crude is softer for the third session in a row following yesterday's slide which now sees WTI back under USD 60/bbl. Desks pin the downside to ongoing tariff risks alongside expectations of OPEC+ further opening the taps. Furthermore, the bearish Private Inventory report on Tuesday only adds to the downbeat mood. Brent July in a USD 62.17-63.34/bbl range.
• Precious metals are lower across the board amid a firmer dollar intraday and following US President Trump softening the Auto tariffs, which further unwinds some risk premium. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,280.28-3,328.16/oz range at the time of writing, within Monday's USD 3,268-3,353.20/oz range.
• Hefty losses across base metals against the backdrop of a firmer dollar coupled with a cautious risk tone. 3M LME copper is currently in a USD 9,206.17-9,436.60/t range at the time of writing.
• Equinor (EQNR NO) CEO says European gas storage is low, expect a tight market during refilling. Europe will need 200-300 extra LNG cargoes to refill storage this year.
• US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +3.8mln (exp. +0.5mln), Distillate -2.5mln (exp. -1.7mln), Gasoline -3.1mln (exp. -1.2mln), Cushing +0.7mln.
• Chile's Codelco Chairman said April Copper production +22% Y/Y.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• "Israeli government statement: On Netanyahu's instructions, the army carried out a strike against a group that tried to attack the Druze in Sahnaya (Syria)", via Sky News Arabia.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi says US sanctions send a negative message during the nuclear talks; E3 will hold talks in Rome on Friday and with the US on Saturday.
• UK forces participated in a joint operation with US forces against a Houthi military target in Yemen, while the UK said the strike was conducted after dark when the likelihood of any civilians being in the area was reduced and all aircraft returned safely.

Geopoltiics: Ukraine

• Kremlin spokesperson says settlement should be reached with Ukraine, and not the US, via Tass "We are working very intensively with the US on Ukraine".
• US President Trump said he thinks Russian President Putin wants peace but he was not happy when he saw Putin shooting missiles, according to ABC News.
• White House Press Secretary said President Trump is confident the Ukraine minerals deal will be signed.

Geopolitics: Other

• Pakistan's Information Minister said they have credible evidence that India is planning "military aggression" against Pakistan within 24-36 hours.
• North Korea conducted the first test firing of a new warship, according to Yonhap. It was also reported that South Korean intelligence assessed that North Korea's combat capabilities have improved and that North Korea suffered 600 deaths during its dispatch of troops to Russia, while South Korean intelligence is monitoring a possible surprise summit between North Korea and the US.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Apr 25 MBA Mortgage Applications -4.2%, prior -12.7%
• 8:15 am: Apr ADP Employment Change, est. 115k, prior 155k
• 8:30 am: 1Q A GDP Annualized QoQ, est. -0.15%, prior 2.4%
• 8:30 am: 1Q A Personal Consumption, est. 1.16%, prior 4%
• 8:30 am: 1Q A GDP Price Index, est. 3.1%, prior 2.3%
• 8:30 am: 1Q A Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 3.1%, prior 2.6%
• 8:30 am: 1Q Employment Cost Index, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9%
• 9:45 am: Apr MNI Chicago PMI, est. 45.9, prior 47.6
• 10:00 am: Mar Personal Income, est. 0.4%, prior 0.8%
• 10:00 am: Mar Personal Spending, est. 0.6%, prior 0.4%
• 10:00 am: Mar PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0%, prior 0.3%
• 10:00 am: Mar PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.2%, prior 2.5%
• 10:00 am: Mar Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4%
• 10:00 am: Mar Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.8%
• 10:00 am: Mar Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 1%, prior 2%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Some of Europe's largest automakers have withdrawn their financial guidance for the year, citing mounting macroeconomic uncertainty sparked by President Trump's trade war. While Trump signed an order Tuesday easing specific auto tariffs, Mercedes-Benz Group still withdrew its full-year outlook.

"The current volatility with regard to tariff policies, mitigation measures and resulting potential direct and indirect effects in particular on customer behaviour and demand is too high to reliably assess the business development for the remainder of the year," Mercedes warned in an earnings press release for the first quarter. 

Mercedes ships Europe-made vehicles via cargo ships to North America while also producing SUVs, luxury vehicles, EVs, and vans at its Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and Charleston, South Carolina plants.

At its Tuscaloosa plant, Mercedes manufactures SUVs such as the GLE, GLS, GLE Coupe, and the ultra-luxury Mercedes-Maybach GLS, as well as electric models like the EQE and EQS SUVs. In Charleston, the company produces both the Sprinter and e-Sprinter vans. 

On Tuesday evening, President Trump signed an executive order aimed at easing the burden of auto-related tariffs. The order includes provisions to lower duties on steel, aluminum, and foreign-made parts, and prevents multiple tariffs from stacking on a single vehicle. However, the 25% tariff on imported vehicles entering the US remains in place. 

Under the order, additional 25% tariffs on auto parts will begin on May 3, but vehicles that go through final assembly in the US will qualify for partial reimbursements on those levies for two years. 

At a rally in Michigan, Trump told the crowd his administration will "slaughter them [automakers] if they don't" re-shore critical supply chains of parts to the US.

Trump announces a rollback in his tariff policy for automobiles, but then says "we give them a little time before we slaughter them if they don't do this." pic.twitter.com/VyOaVXQi9c

In addition to Mercedes, Stellantis NV, Volvo Car, and General Motors have all pulled their full-year forecasts because of tariffs. 

Volkswagen has left its outlook unchanged for the year but warned it has yet to factor in the tariffs, while Aston Martin has announced plans to limit shipments of its luxury sports cars to the US.

Goldman analyst Jeremy Elster commented on the European auto industry...

AUTOS... trading flat on the day despite the guidance suspensions and cuts.  Tariff relief is part of the explanation. Perhaps not directly, but because it hints at willingness to bend to industry pressuree on relief (more on tariff relief details from mark Delaney here). Going through the prints today:

• Mercedes miss & suspend guide. Saying guide would be in tact were it not for tariffs, which makes P911 material downgrades PRE tariff impacts yesterday look even worse in hindsight. The MBG 1Q is a bit better in the details; Cars margin 7.3% vs cons 6.9%, and yet another strong cash quarter (Ind FCF 2,405m vs consensus 1,790m, a 34% beat), albeit this is somewhat overshadowed by the specific cash comment on tariffs; "negative impacts on the cash conversion rates of the automotive segments cannot be ruled out either".  On the call, company saying fy impact of tariffs from here would be around -300bps to Cars margins (i.e. annualised impact would be higher)… implies material downgrades (as much as 400bps vs 7% margin guide starting point, pre mitigation).

• VW first take is worse of the two German prints. Difficult to marry the optimism we heard from the company through q1 with another margins miss at Brand Group Core, but perhaps tailwinds from stronger Europe production become more evident over q2/q3. Headline group ebit is a -7% miss, margins are a 20bps miss, cash flow is more or less in-line.  Guide is moved to low end of the range, but does not include any impact from tariffs.

• STLAM 1Q is revenues only, but also a small miss (-1% vs consensus). Net price -3.4% looks a little worse than feared. Guidance is suspended. Inventories ticked up slightly vs Q4 to support better expected deliveries in Europe in Q2. We've started to field some more, very hesitant, constructive incoming on STLA given tariff relief in US (relative to German OEMs), but for the stock to turn the market will need more confidence on cash and market share stabilisation.

The trade war adds to the problems for European automakers, who face muted demand across Europe and rising competition from Chinese brands, including BYD. 

Samantha Dart, Goldman's co-head of Global Commodities Research, told clients on Tuesday that U.S. natural gas prices appear oversold and reaffirmed a bullish price forecast for the summer period, citing tightening market fundamentals. 

"Upside to Sum25 Henry Hub from here. On net, we continue to see U.S. gas prices as oversold. With net long positions by managed money now more normalized and fundamentals tightening into peak summer as discussed above, we maintain our Bal Sum25 Henry Hub forecast of $3.90/mmBtu," Dart said. 

Dart noted that NatGas production may remain elevated into the early summer months, longer than she previously anticipated, though she expects a decline to begin in June. She explained that the recent surge in output is primarily due to previously drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) and delayed turn-in-line wells (DTILs) now coming online, describing this as a temporary phenomenon: 

The elevated U.S. natural gas production we flagged recently might last longer into this summer than we expect, but production will ultimately move lower. To be sure, we still expect lower Appalachia production sequentially, as a weather-driven decline in Northeast heating demand pressures local wellhead prices lower1 . However, production levels might ultimately remain above our expectations into early summer. To be clear, EQT commented last week during its earnings call that this surge in production has been largely due to wells that had been previously inventoried - as drilled but uncompleted (DUCs) or delayed turn-in-lines (DTILs) - but are now producing, which we think is consistent with a strong price incentive from 1Q25 Henry Hub having averaged in the high $3s/mmBtu, with local Appalachia prices not far behind. This suggests a one-off boost to local production, with heavy declines rates for the new wells likely setting in from June.

In the Northeast, particularly in Appalachia, Dart said production will likely slide as weak local prices, driven mainly through reduced heating demand, put pressure on wellhead economics. She pointed out that U.S. power burns have recovered faster than modeled, with increased coal-to-gas switching:

C2G starting to respond. At the same time, power burns have started to recover vs our modeled expectations, suggesting that utilities are likely increasing C2G switching following the drop in gas prices. The gas share of U.S. thermal generation has started to rise and is now at the highest level year to date at 70%.

She pointed out that NatGas-fired generation now accounts for 70% of U.S. thermal generation, the highest level so far this year. 

Authored by Jennifer Sweenie via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

From the moment Jess’s infant son transitioned from breastfeeding to baby formula, feeding became a source of distress—for both mom and baby. Every bottle of any U.S.-made brand seemed to trigger a bout of vomiting, his tiny body rejecting each feeding. Jess took to doing her research, and against her doctor’s guidance, made the switch to a European-made formula. The vomiting stopped with the swap, granting a sliver of respite for both baby and mom.

New Africa/Shutterstock

“My pediatrician told me that I was ‘endangering’ him by using a European formula that wasn’t FDA approved,” Jess Davidoff told The Epoch Times.

However, as Jess discovered, her pediatrician’s warning didn’t quite align with reality. The debate over what makes a “good” infant formula is intensifying as American parents increasingly turn to European brands. Interest in overseas products isn’t just about preference—it also highlights significant disparities in regulatory standards, differences in essential fats, controversial carbohydrates, and how transparently formulas are labeled. Understanding these differences empowers parents to make informed choices for their children and supports the health and development of American infants.

‘Good’ Formula

Choosing the best formula requires understanding labels and ingredients, regardless of its country of origin. Several critical factors come into play:

Essential Nutrients

Infant formula serves as the primary source of nutrition for many babies during their first year, making its composition essential for healthy development. Key nutrients found in breast milk to look for in formula include:

DHA and ARA: These long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids are essential for brain and eye development. European regulations have historically mandated minimum levels of DHA in infant formula, whereas the amounts in U.S. varieties may vary and, on average, are much lower than what Europe requires.

Prebiotics and Probiotics: Gut health is vital for babies’ digestion, immunity, and even brain development. Regulations regarding the inclusion of prebiotics and probiotics, and the specific strains and amounts, can vary between the United States and Europe. European standards often impose stricter guidelines.

Vitamins and Minerals: Both the FDA and European authorities set minimum, and sometimes maximum, levels for micronutrients in infant formula to ensure babies receive adequate nutrition. However, the specific requirements for certain vitamins and minerals can differ. A 2023 study published in Nutrients found that the average iron level in U.S. formulas is higher than what Europe allows. Almost 96 percent of the formulas tested in the United States exceeded the European iron limit.

Quality

Ingredient quality and how they are processed can impact the overall nutritional value and potential health effects of infant formula.

Organic formulas, made with milk from cows raised without hormones or routine antibiotics and fed organic feed, are more prevalent and strictly regulated in Europe. European organic formulas are also more likely to be made from grass-fed cows and contain probiotics.

The organic market in the United States is growing, but conventional formulas produced from cows raised according to standard agricultural practices still dominate.

Processing methods can affect the bioavailability of nutrients, such as milk proteins and calcium. Some newer processing methods aim to preserve more heat-sensitive nutrients. While both U.S. and European manufacturers follow safety standards, the specific techniques they use might vary.

Additives, such as emulsifiers, stabilizers, and preservatives, are common in formula, but the types and amounts allowed are more restricted in Europe. Some ingredients found in U.S. formulas might be restricted or banned in Europe due to potential health concerns, including exposure to antibiotics and pesticides.

Macronutrient Content

When it comes to macronutrients, lactose is the primary carbohydrate used in both regions to mimic breast milk. It is generally well digested by infants and supports the growth of beneficial gut bacteria. However, European standard formulas almost exclusively use lactose, while U.S. formulas use corn syrup solids, which may affect blood sugar, weight gain, and gut health. Due to these concerns, European regulatory bodies tend to be more cautious than the United States about allowing corn syrup solids in standard infant formulas.

As for Jess’s son, who regurgitated his formula, it turned out he had a severe corn allergy and was reacting to the corn syrup solids in the U.S. formula.

According to Dr. Michelle Perro, an integrative pediatrician with more than four decades of experience, the corn syrup solids are highly processed, but there may still be residual corn protein in the formula. She told The Epoch Times that producing corn syrup involves extensive processing, which, in her view, may contribute to health issues in some children.

“We are seeing an explosion of food sensitivities, intolerances, and allergies—it is off the charts,” said Perro.

Jess’s son’s corn allergy manifested with multiple concerning symptoms, including thinning hair and nails, vomiting, eczema, and hernias—one of which required surgery. Thirty-two doctors dismissed her concerns about a food-related cause, but her mother’s intuition prevailed. She meticulously tracked his food until the culprit revealed itself—all stemming from the introduction of U.S.-based formula containing corn.

“The sugar used has to change. We [the United States] cannot use the synthetic corn syrup derived from GMO corn,” Perro said.

Both European and U.S. formulas typically use a blend of vegetable oils to mimic the fatty acid profile of breast milk. Common oils include palm oil, soy oil, coconut oil, and sunflower oil. European formulas often highlight the inclusion of medium-chain triglycerides, which are easily digestible and provide a quick source of energy. There may also be a greater emphasis on the quality and processing of these oils compared with U.S. standards.

Proteins in formula—usually cow’s milk—aim to match breast milk’s whey-to-casein ratio, often more closely in European formulas than U.S. varieties. Both markets offer formulas with partially or extensively broken down hydrolyzed proteins. Additionally, both the United States and Europe offer formulas made with goat’s milk or soy protein for infants with specific dietary needs. Regulations regarding these alternative protein sources and the extent of processing may differ by region.

Ultimately, transparent labeling is essential for parents making informed choices about infant formula ingredients and nutrient content. European standards often provide more detailed information about ingredient sources and the specific types and amounts of certain components, such as prebiotics and probiotics.

Heavy Metals Are a Concern

Heavy metals can be present in baby formula in the United States and Europe. The European Union generally has stricter limits on heavy metals and contaminants in baby formula than the United States, and continuously updates its regulations to reduce allowable levels. The stricter regulations on heavy metals are a major reason some parents prefer European formulas.

The FDA does not currently require manufacturers to routinely test infant formula for heavy metals. Instead, it has a “Closer to Zero“ initiative that aims to gradually reduce the amount of harmful metals babies and children are exposed to in food. The initiative focuses on conducting research, setting guidelines for the food industry, and monitoring progress over time

Perro referenced the FDA’s Total Diet Study, a program that’s been running since the 1960s and initially focused on measuring radioactivity in food. The study, conducted periodically, monitors the safety and nutritional quality of the U.S. food supply. In its most recent publication, released in 2022, the Total Diet Study analyzed approximately 910 foods to assess contaminant levels. Of the 910 foods, four were infant formulas—and two of those contained toxic metals, including uranium. Despite these findings, Perro said, no public recalls or follow-up investigations were announced, raising concerns about regulatory oversight.

“To think that the FDA is protecting us is a stretch,” she noted, voicing frustration over what she sees as inadequate action regarding contamination in infant formula

Perro suggested that potential sources of toxic metals could include cow feed, processing methods, and environmental factors such as geoengineering—large-scale climate interventions like solar radiation management. While further research is needed to pinpoint the source in the U.S. formula manufacturing system, the presence of these metals is alarming due to the potential health effects.

Heavy metals found in infant formula and their effects include:

Lead: Per the FDA, there is no known safe level of exposure to lead. It poses the greatest risk during brain development and can cause neurological impairments, including learning and behavioral difficulties, and lower IQ.

Mercury: Mercury exposure during active brain development may cause reduced intelligence, memory and cognitive problems, and motor skill difficulties. Emerging evidence also suggests attention may be affected, according to the FDA.

Arsenic: The FDA links arsenic exposure with adverse neurological effects such as learning disabilities, behavioral difficulties, and reduced IQ. Fetuses, infants, and children are especially vulnerable because of their smaller bodies and rapid development.

Cadmium: Because the body eliminates cadmium slowly, long-term exposure can weaken bones and may contribute to kidney and reproductive problems, heart disease, and diabetes, according to the FDA.

A 2024 meta-analysis published in Science of the Total Environment concluded that cadmium exposure is strongly associated with an increased risk of developing chronic kidney disease. Researchers reviewed 31 studies and found that even small amounts of cadmium exposure pose a long-term concern due to its persistence in the body.

Perrro said one of the most troubling effects of heavy metal exposure in infants is its effect on gut health and the subsequent lifelong repercussions.

She explained that toxic metals can disrupt the microbiome, potentially preventing babies from developing a healthy innate immune response. According to Perro, this kind of gut disruption could set the stage for conditions such as eczema, gut-induced asthma, autoimmune disorders, and food allergies, possibly setting the stage for additional health challenges later in life.

She also emphasized the neurological effects of toxic metals, which she believes may play a role in the development of neurodevelopmental conditions such as autism spectrum disorder, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, sensory processing disorders, sleep disturbances, and other behavioral challenges. Additionally, Perro expressed concern about possible metabolic disruptions and the long-term risk of kidney disease, particularly from cadmium exposure.

“Whatever happens to baby is setting up that baby for their immunologic well-being for the rest of their lives,” she said.

Read the rest here...

Amazon's Kuiper officially entered the space communications race on Monday evening, with its first 27 satellites launched into orbit aboard a United Launch Alliance (ULA) Atlas V rocket from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida.

These satellites will deliver high-speed, low-latency broadband internet to customers worldwide and form the foundation of a much larger planned constellation of 3,200 satellites in low Earth orbit, expected to be rolled out in the coming years.

Nominal start to our KA-01 mission. We’ve already established contact with all 27 Kuiper satellites in orbit, and initial deployment and activation sequences are proceeding as planned. Thanks to @ULAlaunch for a successful launch – the first of many missions together. pic.twitter.com/XyG0UCgjuX

Monday's milestone marks a long-awaited step for Jeff Bezos' Kuiper, which now enters the race six years behind Elon Musk's Starlink, operated by SpaceX.

Notably, it wasn't Blue Origin—Bezos' rocket company—that launched the 27 satellites. Instead, it was ULA doing the heavy lifting, while Blue Origin's New Shepard rocket has so far been better known for celebrity suborbital joyrides than serious work. 

US Gov't: Katy Perry "Doesn't Meet FAA Astronaut Criteria" https://t.co/vDzQkCOJEI

Meanwhile, SpaceX has already launched over 8,000 Starlink satellites into orbit and offers service in more than 125 countries. With more than 5 million users worldwide, Starlink remains the dominant player in the global space-based communications market.

SpaceX's space dominance has turned Goldman analysts into believers. Earlier this year, analysts provided clients with a list of Starlink's suppliers to capitalize on, as tens of thousands of these satellites will be catapulted into low Earth orbit by the decade's end. 

Goldman Turns Bullish On Starlink Satellite Parts Supplier As Space Race Accelerates https://t.co/GyooFrcg0x

Just last night...

Falcon 9 launches back-to-back @Starlink missions from California and Florida and completes our 50th mission of 2025! pic.twitter.com/t2tYvM6ctD

Democrats have waged war against the guy who is catching skyscraper-sized rocket boosters. 

Super Heavy catch on Starship's eighth flight test pic.twitter.com/oC80r7CZ4L

Talk about efficiency: 

Summary:
Over $250B spent with no new domestic human launch system until SpaceX delivered one.
Meanwhile, SpaceX built Falcon 1, Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Dragon, and Starship — all for less than 3% of NASA’s total spend. pic.twitter.com/rraK1yPccX

Bezos uses Starlink terminals on his very own yacht. 

The hope is that competition will innovate the space communications race, yet Starlink doesn't really have strong competitors - not Bezos, not China, not Russia. Just wait until SpaceX's mega-rocket begins launching Starlink satellites.

With the full liberation of Kursk having been declared by President Putin days ago, both Moscow and its recent defense treaty partner North Korea are much more openly touting the fact that North Korean troops are operating alongside Russian forces against the Ukrainian army.

For the first time, Russia’s Defense Ministry has released official footage showing North Korean soldiers undergoing combat training in Russia. The video was reportedly captured soon after reports began circulating that over 10,000 DPRK troops had been deployed to Russia, where they later fought in Kursk region in particular.

Via TASS

In the footage, Russian instructors teach the North Korean soldiers in shooting techniques and formations with Kalashnikov assault rifles. Anti-drone measures are also featured, as well as hand grenade training. Several live-fire exercises are featured, including firing RPGs and some sniper training.

Russia did not comment on precisely where the training took place, but it confirms that the terms of the Russian-North Korean mutual defense treaty - inked last summer between Presidents Putin and Kim Jong-Un, had been enacted fairly quickly once Ukraine forces crossed the border and entered Kursk.

The latest international reports have said 14,000 or more North Korean soldiers were sent to Russia amid the Kursk operation. The bulk of these are said to be from special forces units. Putin thanked them and Kim Jong-Un this week, in a first such public acknowledgement.

Ukraine is meanwhile urging Washington to take more serious action in light of this confirmation, and is also calling on South Korea, per regional media:

"If the Kremlin sends North Korean troops to the territory of Ukraine it would mean that North Korea is in a state of all out war with Ukraine," Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the parliament's foreign affairs committee, told the Kyiv Independent.

The lawmaker from the ruling Servant of the People explained that such a deployment would cause "serious legal, political, and military consequences for Russia and North Korea," prompting a stronger reaction from countries such as South Korea and the U.S.

"(Russian President Vladimir) Putin understands that if he does it (U.S. President Donald) Trump will have to react rather strongly," Merezhko said.

Watch: video issued by Russian military showing training of DPRK troops at a prior date:

“We won’t invade Ukraine.”
“No North Koreans are fighting for Russia.”
“We want peace talks with Ukraine.”

How many times does the West need to hear Russia lie before it finally learns? pic.twitter.com/a8spASlnLl

Ukraine had reportedly breached the Russian border in Belgorod too, so it's possible North Korean troops might be deployed that region as well. Whether or not they are actually inside Eastern Ukraine is an open question.

As for North Korea's Kim, KCNA quoted him Monday as saying, "They who fought for justice are all heroes and representatives of the honor of the motherland." North Korea "regards it as an honor to have an alliance with such a powerful state as the Russian Federation," he added. Ukraine has claimed to have captured a handful of both North Korean and even Chinese troops over the past month.

Via Middle East Eye

"Mossad agents" and "warmongers" are pushing the US into a conflict with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Those lines aren’t coming from state-run news agencies in Tehran, but some of US President Donald Trump’s closest media allies and supporters. 

Last week, conservative talk show host Tucker Carlson featured a senior Department of Defense official who he claimed was ousted because he was seen as an obstacle to the US bombing Iran.

Dan Caldwell, a top advisor to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, was removed from the Pentagon earlier this month on charges that he allegedly leaked classified information about Hegseth’s use of a Signal chat, according to several media outlets.

Getty Images via AFP

Not so by Carlson’s telling, who has unparalleled access to Trump. "You did make maybe one career mistake by giving on-the-record interviews describing your foreign policy views…that are out of the mainstream among warmongers in Washington," Carlson said to Caldwell, adding, "Then I read all of a sudden that you are a traitor."

On Sunday, another conservative podcaster, Clayton Morris, a former Fox News anchor, said pro-Israel voices were "working overtime" to destroy the "anti-war team" that Trump has assembled at the Pentagon.

"We’ve learned here at Redacted that former Israeli Mossad agents are working overtime on social media and behind the scenes trying to discredit Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth," Morris said, referring to his show. He didn't name the so-called former agents. 

Trump’s administration is divided between more traditional Republicans like US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and national security advisor Mike Waltz, and "America First" isolationists like White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.

Some of Trump’s most vocal defenders in the media, who exercise unprecedented influence in communicating his worldview, are media figures like Carlson and former advisor Steve Bannon.

The firing of Caldwell and two other senior Pentagon officials appears to have energized America First anti-interventionists. Their slamming of the pro-Israel voices and former Mossad agents is unprecedented within the Republican Party. It reflects just how far Trump has taken the party from its traditionally hawkish worldview. 

Pro-Trump media personalities have singled out Merav Ceren, who was nominated to head Iran and Israel at the White House National Security Council, for criticism. 

Ceren was born in Haifa, Israel, and worked in the Israeli Ministry of Defense. On his show, Morris, who co-hosted a Fox morning news show with Hegseth, said that, "Neo-con Mike Waltz has now hired basically a dual citizen and former IDF official to work under him."

The coverage reflects a growing trend in the US to view Israel with skepticism, which has intensified since the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attacks on southern Israel, which sparked the Israeli invasion of Gaza and a simmering Middle East war. 

According to a Pew Poll published in April, 53 percent of Americans now express an unfavorable opinion of Israel, up from 42 percent in March 2022. The shift in negative sentiment has been notable among young Republicans under 50, who are more likely to tune into podcasts like Morris’s Redacted and Carlson’s show.

Dan Caldwell, a top advisor to Defense Chief Pete Hegseth, was escorted out of the Pentagon after being named in a Department of Defense leaks investigation.

Caldwell didn’t toe the usual line on foreign policy. He openly challenged the Washington consensus on Israel, saying the… pic.twitter.com/O2ZoVSNmXd

The criticism comes as Trump tries to square his muscular foreign policy instincts with his pledge to refrain from starting new Middle East wars. On Iran, Trump's closest envoys have been left contradicting themselves. 

Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy who has emerged as his go-to global troubleshooter, suggested earlier this month that Washington would allow Iran to enrich uranium at low levels. After backlash from pro-Israel voices, he flipped, saying that Tehran “must stop and eliminate” its nuclear enrichment program fully.

This week, Secretary Rubio said the US could re-enter a deal that sees Iran keep a civilian nuclear programme - so long as it halts enrichment, and instead ships it in from abroad. 

American and Iranian technical teams met in Oman on Saturday for their third round of talks. Trump told reporters on Monday that the talks are going "very well" and that "a deal is going to be made there". "We’ll have something without having to start dropping bombs all over the place," he said.

The effort to refill America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, depleted under President Biden in 2022, is progressing slowly under the Trump administration, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a CNBC interview this week.

"We are refilling the reserve now, and we will continue to refill the reserve the whole time I'm in office," Wright stated, warning it could take years. He criticized Biden’s decision to release oil from the SPR as "such an irresponsible action to drain that reserve so quickly for electoral reasons."

The Biden administration authorized a historic sale of 180 million barrels over six months to fight surging gasoline prices and inflation, and in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to Newsmax.

Wright added that the rapid drawdown damaged infrastructure: "It was drained so fast, it did some damage to the facilities. And so, right now, we only can fill two of the four major salt caverns we have, so we are doing repair work on the other two." He said he’s pushing for more funding to speed up the repairs and refill effort.

Recall back in March we noted that Wright told Bloomberg in an interview that the Energy Department was preparing to purchase $20 billion worth of crude oil as the first step in refilling the nation's depleted SPR to a sufficient level.

At the time, he said the initiative, which may take years, would restore holdings "just close to the top." 

The initiative, which may take years, would restore holdings "just close to the top" to maintain efficient operating status, Wright said in an interview on Thursday in Louisiana after touring a natural-gas export plant. Trump said he planned replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve during his inaugural address in January, part of a broad embrace of conventional energy that's also included pledges to boost domestic oil production and roll back regulation. The storage facility — the largest of its kind — is meant to provide a cushion to guard against crude supply disruptions. "Ultimately, that's what it was built for — to have the maximum security for the American people," Wright said. -BBG 

Currently trading at approximately $61 per barrel, WTI has decreased by about 13.76% since the beginning of the year and the re-escalation of trade disputes, particularly between the U.S. and China, has dampened global economic outlooks, leading to reduced demand projections for oil

Recall, under Biden's first term, the reckless administration dangerously drained the SPR from around 650 million barrels to about 395 million. 

Bloomberg noted back in March: "Congress will need to approve funding to refill the system, which isn't guaranteed. Energy Department funds for purchases ran out after the Biden administration bought about 60 million barrels."

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Lawmakers in the Arizona House of Representatives passed two bills that could allow the state to adopt a reserve using Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.

In a third reading on April 28 of Senate Bill 1025 (SB1025), a proposal to amend Arizona’s statutes to allow for a strategic BTC reserve, 31 members of the Arizona House voted in favor of the bill, with 25 opposed. A similar bill, SB1373, to establish a state-level digital assets reserve, passed with 37 lawmakers in favor and 19 voting nay.

“This bill basically takes the approach that probably 15 other states are considering the same legislation nationwide that allows the treasurer to invest up to 10% into, probably mainly Bitcoin but other things as well,” said State Representative Jeff Weninger on SB1025.

“I think this probably would start as a ‘may’ for the foreseeable future, but as things continue to pivot towards Bitcoin and these things, would have that already in place in the future.”

Voting for SB1025 in the Arizona House of Representatives on April 28. Source: Arizona State Legislature

The approvals bring the bills closer than any other state-level initiative in the US to getting a cryptocurrency or Bitcoin strategic reserve signed into law. Similar legislation proposed in New Hampshire passed the state’s House in April and is expected to head to the Senate for a full floor vote soon.

Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs announced on April 17 that she intended to veto any bill until lawmakers had a “serious, bipartisan funding solution that protects healthcare for Arizonans with disabilities.” However, with the passage of such legislation on April 24, the governor could be more open to signing SB1025 or SB1373 into law.

Federal plans to establish a national crypto reserve

The state-level efforts to create Bitcoin reserves come amid a push from US President Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers to do the same in the federal government. 

Trump signed an executive order in March with a proposal for a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” and a “Digital Asset Stockpile.”

Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, a crypto advocate, proposed that Congress pass legislation that could allow the US government to hold more than 1 million BTC, in part through crypto seized through civil or criminal forfeiture. Some lawmakers have suggested Lummis’s bill was an attempt by Congress to codify Trump’s executive order into law.