Just one week ago, China seemingly couldn't get enough of gold, and the price of spot briefly touched a record $3500 as a result of, among other things, staggering inflows into Chinese gold ETFs such as the Huaan Yifu, Bosera and Guotai gold ETFs.

But, as with all things momentum-based in China, it's easy come, easy go in the land of Dragons, and as Goldman commodity trader Adam Gillard writes, China liquidated what it bought last week ahead of the Labor Day holiday, resulting in total onshore positioning now 5% off the ATH. And while China’s share of total open interest remains on the highs at ~40%, upward momentum may have peaked for the time being.

Here is the story of Chinese gold buying... and then selling, in five charts.

Last Tuesday (22nd April) gold made an ATH as China added 1.2mn oz of positioning across SGE and SHFE, on record volume....

... so fast forward to today, when China liquidated a near-record 1mn oz across SHFE and SGE, reversing the entire April 22 blow-off top.

... although the ETF was largely unchanged

... Resulting in total Chinese positioning now ~5% off the ATH .

And the paper (spec) import arbitrage ~$20/oz off the highs

According to Gillard, who confirms our recent observation that all recent price moves take place exclusively around the time China opens...

China opens and gold soars to new record high https://t.co/z61bLLj4Y9 pic.twitter.com/bwLH49On8X

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 16, 2025

... China is having a disproportionate impact on price because they execute during an illiquid part of the day (Asia morning) which likely triggers ex China CTA trading signals. Sure enough, gold is dumping in early Asian trading to the lowest level in 2 weeks.

More int the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

Authored by Autumn Spredemann via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Mexico’s delinquent water deliveries, in violation of an 81-year-old treaty with the United States, have exposed years of “blind eye” policies, rapid population growth, and hydrological changes, according to an expert at the U.S. Army War College.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

Evan Ellis, research professor of Latin American studies at the college’s Strategic Studies Institute, told The Epoch Times that recent tensions over Mexico’s delinquent water deliveries have come from “years of looking the other way” on the part of the United States.

U.S. President Donald Trump has requested that the United States’ southern neighbor honor its obligation to deliver 1.3 million acre-feet of water to Texas. The amount totals almost 70 percent of a five-year water commitment that’s due in October.

“Just last month, I halted water shipments to Tijuana until Mexico complies with the 1944 Water Treaty,” Trump wrote in an April 10 post on his social media platform, Truth Social.

Under the reciprocal agreement, Mexico is expected to send the United States 1.75 million acre-feet of water over a five-year cycle. That’s an average of 350,000 acre-feet of water each year. The water deliveries primarily come from six tributaries of the Rio Grande, and are stored in the Amistad and Falcon international reservoirs along the river.

One acre-foot of water—one acre of water at a depth of one foot—is roughly enough to fill half of an Olympic-size swimming pool. Mexico’s average annual obligation is enough water to supply 700,000 to 1 million Texas households for a year.

In exchange, the United States agreed to provide Mexico with 1.5 million acre-feet of water from the Colorado River each year—differing from Mexico’s five-year cycle.

The Tijuana shipments that Trump said were halted were part of a non-treaty water request from Mexico.

The U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Western Hemisphere affairs said the United States denied such a request for the first time since the treaty was signed because of Mexico’s noncompliance with its water obligations.

“Mexico’s continued shortfalls in its water deliveries under the 1944 water-sharing treaty are decimating American agriculture—particularly farmers in the Rio Grande valley,” the State Department wrote in a statement on social media platform X on March 20.

According to the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC), which handles issues related to the 1944 treaty, Mexico has failed to meet its five-year delivery obligations three times since 1992. Each of those debts was carried over to the following cycle and ultimately paid.

Mexico also fell short in average minimum annual deliveries within the 2002–2007 and the 2015–2020 cycles. Those shortfalls were met very close to the end of the cycles—in 2020, within just three days of the deadline.

Although the deliveries were ultimately fulfilled, the unpredictable nature of water deliveries from the Rio Grande has impacted water users on both sides of the border.

The current cycle for both countries ends in October, but according to IBWC data, by March 29, just 28 percent—or less than 500,000 acre-feet of water—of Mexico’s water obligation had been delivered.

A water delivery truck loads water for sale in Tijuana, Mexico, on March 24, 2025. On March 20, the United States announced it denied Mexico’s request for Colorado River water, pressuring the country to meet its obligation to deliver 1.3 million acre-feet of water to Texas under the 1944 Water Treaty. Guillermo Arias/AFP via Getty Images

In response to a query about how much of the United States’ water commitment to Mexico has been met, IBWC public affairs chief Frank Fisher cited an agency graph showing that the United States had met about half of its 2025 commitment as of April 19.

In November 2024, the two countries agreed to a treaty amendment that would give Mexico more ways to meet its water obligation. Those options include providing water from the San Juan and Alamo rivers, which are not part of the Rio Grande tributaries specified in the treaty. The agreement also set up a working group to explore other sources of water.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said at a news conference on April 11, the day after Trump’s social media post announcing a delivery stoppage, that she expected an agreement in the coming days “that will allow the treaty to be fulfilled.” She called the treaty “fair.”

Sheinbaum told reporters that there would be “an immediate delivery of a certain number of millions of cubic meters that can be provided according to the water availability in the Rio Grande.”

In response to a query about whether Mexico had made that delivery, the State Department confirmed that Mexico had committed to making an immediate transfer of water, but it did not confirm that the delivery had been made.

The State Department stated on April 28 that the two countries had committed to developing “a long-term plan to reliably meet treaty requirements while addressing outstanding water debts—including through additional monthly transfers and regular consultations on water deliveries that take into consideration the needs of Texas users.”

Sheinbaum has blamed her country’s increasingly delinquent water shipments on extended periods of drought that have affected the Rio Grande.

“Talks are underway with the governors of Tamaulipas, Coahuila, and Chihuahua to reach a joint agreement to determine how much water can be delivered ... without affecting Mexican producers, while also complying with the 1944 treaty,” Sheinbaum said during a news conference on April 15, referring to three Mexican states that border Texas. The Rio Grande serves as the international boundary.

Historically, Mexican farmers have contested attempts to increase water deliveries to the United States for fear of losing their crops.

In September 2020—before an October delivery deadline—farmers in Mexico’s Chihuahua state, which borders New Mexico and Texas, were involved in heated protests over government attempts to deliver 378 cubic meters of water to the United States, claiming that their livelihoods were at stake amid severe drought conditions. One protester was killed in clashes with the Mexican National Guard.

Sculptures stand along the international boundary at Amistad Reservoir on the U.S.–Mexico border near Ciudad Acuña, Mexico, on Feb. 21, 2017. Guillermo Arias/AFP via Getty Images

Downstream Dilemma

Maria-Elena Giner, then-commissioner of the IBWC’s U.S. division, told The Epoch Times on April 18 that the division is “in close contact with the administration regarding the need for Mexico to commit to predictable and reliable Rio Grande water deliveries.”

“We have continued to request that Mexico make monthly deliveries and provide a specific plan outlining how they intend to make up their historic shortfall in the next five-year cycle,” Giner said.

“At the same time, we are doing everything we can to assist impacted south Texas stakeholders, including alerting growers and irrigation districts about available federal and local resources and sharing our historical data on Rio Grande hydrology.”

Giner, a Biden appointee, resigned on April 21. She will be succeeded by William “Chad” McIntosh, who previously served as acting deputy administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency under administrator Lee Zeldin.

The 1944 water agreement between the United States and Mexico was struck at a time when groundwater was abundant, and droughts weren’t as lengthy. Both nations agreed to share water from two rivers that help define the international border: the Colorado River and the Rio Grande.

Like the Rio Grande in Mexico, the Colorado River in the United States has faced extreme drought in recent years.

Since 2000, the Colorado River, which originates in the Rockies and joins Mexico at the California–Arizona border, has experienced a “historic, extended drought” that has taken a heavy toll on regional water supplies.

At the same time, population and agricultural growth in Colorado River Basin states have grown exponentially over the two decade period.

Currently, the Colorado River Basin provides water to an estimated 40 million residents in seven U.S. states and irrigates more than 5 million acres of farmland.

Read the rest here...

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) administrator Lee Zeldin unveiled 100 actions the agency has undertaken since Trump's inauguration to "power the American comeback."

"The Trump Administration’s first one hundred days have been historic. The American public made themselves heard last November, and we are delivering on this mandate. Promises made, promises kept. At EPA, we are doing our part to Power the Great American Comeback. To mark this momentous day, we are proudly highlighting 100 environmental actions we have taken since January 20th to protect human health and the environment," Zeldin said in a video post reported by Breitbart.

To mark the 100th day of President Trump’s second term, @EPA is proudly highlighting 100 environmental actions we have taken since January 20th to protect human health and the environment.

Clean air, land, and water for ALL Americans! pic.twitter.com/CdTX1w6bJZ

— Lee Zeldin (@epaleezeldin) April 30, 2025

The EPA was established by President Richard Nixon in 1970, tasking the agency with two missions; promoting clear air and water, and reducing pollution from waste disposal and other hazards. According to Zeldin, the agency has refocused on its primary mission of ensuring clean air and water instead of pushing "climate change religion."

"Here are a few top highlights: To protect our nation’s waters, we updated water quality standards for 38 miles of the Delaware River to protect critical fish species and keep the river clean. We approved a plan to further restore and protect the Long Island Sound over the next decade. We also developed a method to detect 40 different PFAS in surface water, ground water and wastewater," Zeldin said, adding "Our team completed one of three in-water cleanups at the Lower Duwamish Waterway Superfund Site and revised the 2025 Idaho Water Quality Performance Partnership with the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality. To ensure clean air for all Americans, we demanded answers from an unregulated geoengineering start-up, Make Sunsets, that has been launching sulfur dioxide into the air to receive ‘cooling credits.'"

According to Taylor Rogers, an assistant White House press secretary, the Trump administration and Zeldin have "taken monumental steps to quickly remove toxins from our water and environment, provide clean land for Americans, and use common-sense policies to Power the Great American Comeback."

Here are the 100 actions the EPA has undertaken via Breitbart;

1. Issued immediate action items for Mexico to permanently end the Tijuana River sewage crisis.

2. Responded quickly to a citizen complaint about discharges into New York’s Hutchinson River; inspected and ordered corrective action.

3. Developed a Clean Water Act permit for hotels, condominiums, and apartment complexes to protect water quality in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

4. Finalized Arkansas 2022 Section 303(d) list assessing statewide water quality.

5. Approved Kansas Triennial Water Quality Standards Package.

6. Approved Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) plan in South Dakota to protect Big Sioux River quality from E. coli.

7. Announced plans to finalize outdated clean water standards for 38 miles of the Delaware River.

8. Approved removal of the Drinking Water Beneficial Use Impairment in Wisconsin’s Green Bay and Fox River Area of Concern.

9. Advanced Navajo Nation’s first in the country water permitting (“Treatment as a State”) authority.

10. Completed Phase 1 hazardous materials clean up after the catastrophic Los Angeles wildfires. EPA cleared 13,612 residential properties and 305 commercial properties, and removed 645 electric and hybrid vehicles and 420 energy storage systems in under 30 days.

11. Supported redevelopment at 21 Superfund sites across 13 states.

12. Completed a contaminated site cleanup in Hillsborough, New Hampshire, and Stratford, Connecticut.

13. Oversaw U.S. Navy’s time-critical removal of 20,000 cubic yards of contaminated soil at the Naval Education Training Center Superfund Site in Newport, Rhode Island.

14. Cleared all or a portion of 4 sites from the Superfund National Priorities List.

15. Cut two years from the cleanup timeline at West Lake Landfill, a Superfund site in St. Louis, Missouri.

16. Completed 55 property cleanups at Region 8 Brownfields. This is 31% of the national goal and 131% of Region 8’s Fiscal Year 2025 goal.

17. Completed laboratory work required for selecting a remedy at Lower Darby Creek Area Superfund Site in Pennsylvania. EPA collected 1500 sediment and water samples.

18. Responded to a mercury incident in Fremont, Ohio; safely removed and disposed of a 60-pound overpack and 15-pound bucket containing jars of elemental mercury and mercury containing devices.

19. Provided air monitoring support at the Chicago Magnesium Casting Co. after a large magnesium fire.

20. Completed Emergency Removal Action at the Marion Ohio Mercury Spill site in Ohio.

21. Oversaw Navy cleanup operations at Red Hill Fuel Facility in Hawaii, including removal of all sludge and pressure washing at two 12.5 million-gallon tanks.

22. Developed a method to detect 40 PFAS compounds in water sources.

23. Finalized eight Water Quality Standard Actions for Region 6 states.

24. Completed a second round of PFAS sampling at Region 7 Tribal Drinking Water Systems.

25. Provided interim PFAS lab certification for Alaska’s Department of Environmental Conservation (ADEC).

26. Signed an agreement to connect Joint Base Lewis-McChord residences to municipal water system if PFAS exceeds standards.

27. Started Final Remedial Actions for Jackson Ceramix Superfund in Falls Creek Borough, Pennsylvania, with construction to begin in the Spring of 2025.

28. Provided training to help New Mexico administer the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System, a permit program established by EPA under the Clean Water Act to regulate water pollution by controlling point sources that discharge pollutants into U.S. waters.

29. Coordinated PFAS drinking water well sampling around Fort Bragg, North Carolina.

30. Utilized EPA lab Method 522 to test tribal drinking water systems for PFAS; performed 62 analyses.

31. Completed lead testing assistance (3T’s Protocol) for Puerto Rico schools and childcare facilities.

32. Reviewed 29 public water systems that had lead action level exceedance notifications in Region 4.

33. Completed 25 State Implementation Plans allowing environmental requirements to go into effect faster, 16 of which were backlogged from the previous Administration.

34. Finalized air quality rulemaking in the Washington D.C. Area ensuring ozone compliance.

35. Conducted ambient air monitoring technical system audits (TSAs) across Region 9.

36. Upgraded the RadNet monitoring station in Edison, New Jersey, to detect airborne radioactivity.

37. Awarded $165,000 to San Diego Air Pollution Control District for air filters and $1.26M for hydrogen sulfide monitoring to address air quality at the border and concerns with sulfur odors from Tijuana River sewage.

38. Promoted clean air quality compliance for new chip manufacturing projects in Phoenix, Arizona.

39. 27 Brownfields sites were made Ready for Anticipated Use, boosting property values and economic opportunities in Hartshorne, Oklahoma, Minden, Louisiana, West Memphis, Arkansas, and more.

40. Completed 107 assessments of Brownfield properties in Region 7, which is 82% of their Fiscal Year 2025 goal.

41. Achieved 21 contaminated Brownfield redevelopment successes in Region 9.

42. Held a Superfund Job Training at Missouri’s Ozark Correctional Center.

43. Completed review of 81 New Chemicals to ensure they are safe for human health and the environment.

44. Conducted a safety review of 14 pesticides to set tolerances to support a safe and reliable food supply.

45. Approved 48 pesticides to provide growers with necessary tools while ensuring appropriate restrictions were imposed to protect human health, the environment, and endangered species.

46. Proposed 35 significant new use rules (SNURs) for chemical oversight to ensure chemicals do not pose an unreasonable risk to human health or the environment.

47. Led a Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) Week-In-Residence Enforcement Training event for newly hired state inspectors to equip new inspectors with the knowledge necessary to uphold consistent inspection standards.

48. Blocked illegal pesticide imports totaling over 200,000 pounds across multiple regions.

49. Announced approval of Texas’s clean-air plan to address vehicle emissions and improve air quality in the San Antonio area.

50. Issued amended PCB risk-based disposal approvals to expedite repairs at public schools.

51. Led a Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) State Authorization Conference to strengthen the hazardous waste program across all states.

52. Sent mobile drinking water lab to flood-impacted Eastern Kentucky.

53. Cleared more than 1,700 orphan containers of oil, propane, and other hazardous materials from land and waterways around the French Broad River after Hurricane Helene.

54. Tested over 1,500 private wells in North Carolina’s Buncombe and Watauga counties.

55. Assisted in restoring drinking water service to 150,000 people in North Carolina.

56. Concluded 297 enforcement cases reducing 15 million pounds of pollution.

57. Superfund enforcement secured $296 million worth of cleanups addressing more than 700,000 cubic yards of contamination.

58. Completed cleanup at Metals Refining Co. hazardous waste site in Indiana after discovering thirty-two, 55-gallon drums most of which were damaged and some leaking and an additional 200 to 300 miscellaneous containers of hazardous waste.

59. Removed approximately 10,000 tons of soil and debris contaminated with asbestos containing material from an unsecured 10-acre property in Indiana.

60. Collaborated to replace lead-contaminated soil at Atlanta’s Lindsay Street Park.

61. Analyzed children’s blood lead data to improve South Dakota lead prevention efforts.

62. Supported tribal waste management programs with multiple trainings to address dangerous materials like refrigerants, mercury switches, PCBs, and petroleum components.

63. Conducted 6,000 1-on-1 engagements with communities impacted by fires.

64. Held 104 public meetings or community events for fire response updates.

65. Provided training, guidance, and support to monitor and cleanup Underground Storage Tanks on Navajo Nation lands.

66. Started cleanup of radium-contaminated soil at the Silbert Watch Co. Superfund Site in Elgin, Illinois.

67. Developed EPA Method TO-15 to analyze 65 toxic Volatile Organic Compounds in indoor and outdoor air in support of Superfund and Clean Air Act.

68. Supported Los Alamos National Lab in transporting hazardous tritium containers for cleanup.

69. Conducted lead contamination studies at the Bunker Hill Superfund site.

70. Completed the review of the Houston area Ozone Exceptional that allows the state to proceed with their Air Program planning and implementation.

71. Worked with U.S. Customs to stop illegal pesticide imports at multiple ports.

72. Blocked over 56,000 pounds of unregistered pesticide products from entering through Region 4 ports.

73. Provided technical assistance support to communities at 31 Superfund sites across the country.

74. Cleanup of the HPI Chemical Products in Missouri, where thousands of containers of pesticide and herbicide containing hazardous substances, pollutants, and contaminants were housed.

75. Began a Remedial Investigation of the Historic Potteries site in Trenton, New Jersey.

76. Completed 7 property cleanups in Brownfields in the First 100 Days in Region 7.

77. Approved updated Comprehensive Conservation & Management plan for the Long Island Sound Partnership, to further restore and protect the Sound.

78. Initiated sediment removal projects at the Lower Duwamish Waterway Superfund Site removing approximately 13,700 cubic yards of contaminated sediment.

79. Oversaw cleanups at tribal and local jurisdictions under CERCLA and Clean Water Act.

80. Supported redevelopment at the Mississippi Phosphate Superfund site with a new treatment plant.

81. Completed analysis for wood treating contaminants at 181 residential properties around the Union Pacific Railroad Superfund site in Houston, Texas, with seventy four percent found to be safe for use.

82. Managed post-disaster hazardous materials spills in Ohio and North Carolina.

83. Inspected and mitigated vapor intrusion impacting Los Angeles from a former Superfund site.

84. Obtained court settlement for cleanup work at the San Fernando Valley Superfund Site located in North Hollywood-Burbank to restore a critical drinking water supply for the city of Los Angeles.

85. Responded to hydraulic oil spill into a creek in Whitehouse, Ohio.

86. Supported voluntary cleanups under consent decrees.

87. Began a removal action in Dartmouth, Massachusetts, to excavate and dispose of contaminated soil at three residential properties as part of a larger ongoing cleanup effort.

88. Approved eight plans for cleanup and disposal of toxic Polychlorinated Biphenyl (PCB) materials to facilitate reuse and economic development across properties in New England.

89. Finalized Native Green Grow Air Permit for large greenhouse facility in North Dakota, providing the Tribe with food security.

90. Advanced Native American environmental oversight efforts.

91. Granted a Water Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act (WIFIA) loan to Weber Basin Water Conservancy District, for drinking water infrastructure to over 20% of Utah’s population while creating local jobs to support the projects.

92. Supported grant programs to monitor and clean up abandoned USTs.

93. Provided federal funds to conduct Highway 24 lead and arsenic clean up in Colorado.

94. Helped prevent spread of hazardous materials from warehouse fires including sulfuric acid, nitric acid, hydrochloric acid, sodium hypochlorite, potassium cyanide, sodium cyanide, and lead.

95. Collaborated with fire rescue teams in North Carolina to retrieve containers from flooded rivers.

96. Provided technical guidance to local water operators, supporting efforts to restore and maintain drinking water systems and other essential services during Hurricane Helene Recovery efforts.

97. Completed all residential soil and indoor dust cleanup at the Colorado Smelter Superfund site.

98. Completed the 5-Year Review for Puerto Rico’s Corozal Superfund Site, paving the way for its deletion from the CERCLA Superfund National Priority List.

99. Submitted a demand for information to a start-up company called “Make Sunsets,” which is launching balloons filled with sulfur dioxide (SO2) seeking to geoengineer the planet and generate “cooling” credits to sell.

100. Announced major actions to combat PFAS contamination.

California lawmakers on the Public Safety Committee advanced a bill that would crack down on child sex trafficking - but only after language was removed that would have made it a felony to purchase 16 and 17-year-olds.

Assemblymembers Mia Monta (D) and LaShae Sharp Collins (D) abstained from the vote.

Assembly Bill 379, introduced by Assemblymember Maggy Krell (D), targets buyers of commercial sex. Krell previously worked at the California DOJ, where she became known for prosecuting the operators of Backpage.com - which was shut down in 2018 for facilitating sex trafficking and prostitution.

The bill is opposed by Assemblymember Mark Gonzalez (D-Los Angeles), who says the bill would disproportionately impact communities of color.

Democratic Assemblyman is concerned that this bill addressing human/sex trafficking (and was supposed to make it a felony to solicit 16 and 17 years old) will disproportionately affect black and brown communities and LGBTQI+ community. pic.twitter.com/rDPO4GeMw9

— California Republican Party (@CAGOP) April 29, 2025

So, it's racist to crack down on child sex trafficking. Got it.

The bill, introduced in February, includes provisions to create a misdemeanor for loitering with the intent to solicit commercial sex - and imposes fines as high as $25,000 for soliciting minors under the age of 16. It also allows felony human trafficking charges for repeat offenders who buy sex from minors.

It also would create a first-of-its-kind Survivor Support Fund - which would go to community-based organizations led by survivors of human trafficking.

As the Epoch Times notes further, while introducing the bill to the committee, Krell said it would support victims and give law enforcement better tools to prosecute the buyers.

“Demand is the buyers,” she said. “It is the rows of cars of men lined up on street corners to buy teenagers for sex,” she said. “Without the buyers, we don’t really have sex trafficking.”

The bill drew support from the California District Attorneys Association, the California Police Chief Association, the San Bernardino County Sheriff’s Department, the City of Stockton, the Association for L.A. Deputy Sheriffs, the League of County Board of Supervisors, and more.

The bill also reinstates penalties for offenses that were decriminalized by a 2022 California law, such as loitering with the intent to purchase a victim. Those convicted would face a misdemeanor and pay up to a $1,000 fine that would go toward the fund for survivors.

Opponents, including survivors of child trafficking, focused on this aspect of the law in their testimony.

Jess Torres, a child trafficking survivor and director of programs at Rising International, respectfully opposed the bill, saying it hinges on a vaguely defined suspicion of intent to do something criminal, rather than evidence.

“This bill will only escalate violence against survivors because persons who are trafficked in commercial sex are harmed when they operate in a criminalized environment,” Torres said. “When buyers believe they are taking on greater risk, they often become more demanding, and that pressure frequently becomes compromising.”

Leela Chapelle of the Coalition to Abolish Slavery and Trafficking also opposed the bill, arguing that loitering with intent laws harm communities they claim to protect and are unconstitutional.

“We do believe that this will cause the same issues that we have seen over and over again, that we spend our resources clearing the criminal records of survivors, that should not have happened in the first place—these criminal records that prevent them from lives of stability,” Chapelle said.

Opposition also included the LA Public Defenders Union and the San Francisco Public Defender’s Office.

The bill is now due to advance on to the Assembly Appropriations Committee before it can advance to a full vote on the Assembly floor and the Senate.

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Employees working in coal mining and firefighter safety who had been slated for termination have been asked to return to work, according to a U.S. senator and a union that represents them.

Hector Medrano, a firefighter from California, watches the Black Cove Fire as he coordinates a helicopter water drop in Saluda, N.C., on March 26, 2025. Allison Joyce/AP Photo

The workers are employed by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), which is part of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). 

As part of an HHS overhaul, hundreds of NIOSH employees were placed on administrative leave and set to be fired, union officials say.

Employees who work for the Coal Workers’ Health Surveillance Program and the Fire Fighters’ Fatality Investigation and Prevention Program are being reinstated temporarily, the American Federation of Government Employees Local 3430 said on Wednesday. The reinstatement action “allows these dedicated professionals to return to their critical roles in advancing worker safety and health across the country.”

The exact number of affected workers is unclear.

The workers are still on the list to be fired as part of mass terminations scheduled for June 2, the union said.

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), who has been in conversations with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. about reversing some of the cuts, also said she understood the reinstatements to be temporary.

“I am encouraged that some NIOSH functions for coal miner and firefighter safety are slated to resume with some select staff returning to work this week. But my understanding is that this is temporary, so my focus will continue to be on working with HHS on permanently restoring these functions and personnel in the most efficient and effective manner,” Capito wrote on social media platform X.

HHS did not respond to a request for comment.

Kennedy said on X this week that “Firefighter health and safety programs remain a top priority” and that, as HHS works on streamlining operations, “critical services of NIOSH will remain intact.”

A West Virginia coal miner who sued the government in federal court over the cuts said in a recent filing that HHS cannot carry out programs detailed in federal law, such as a screening program for Black Lung, without the workers who were set to be fired.

The government has not yet responded to the legal action. A judge ordered the government to respond by May 2 and to appear in court on May 7.

Kennedy in March announced that HHS would slash about 10,000 jobs in a bid to make the agency more efficient and effective. After many workers were fired, Kennedy told reporters that some of the layoffs were mistakes and that certain employees were being brought back.

The Kremlin has called out the US and Ukraine, for what looks like an emerging trend of Washington essentially dragging Zelensky by the ear toward a peace deal. Russia is saying that ultimately it cannot sign a deal with the United States - but that for the war to end, a legitimate settlement must be made bilaterally with Kiev.

Putin spokesman Dimitry Peskov said Wednesday that even though Russia welcomes the Trump administration's mediation efforts, the reality remains that "A peace deal should be done with the Ukraine, not with America."

Via CNN

"Unfortunately, we haven’t heard any statements in this context from Kiev, so we don’t know whether Kiev is ready or not," Peskov emphasized, strongly suggesting that the Ukrainian side isn't really seeking peace.

The Kremlin reiterated that currently contacts with Ukraine are only at the military level, to broker things like POW exchanges and returns of the wounded and deceased.

President Trump has of late been expressing frustration, somewhat lashing out at both sides - though he's seemed especially frustrated with Zelensky. Ukraine and the US were expected to finally sigh a minerals deal on Wednesday, but a "last minute hurdle" prevented that.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin actually had harsher statements, filling in more details beyond Peskov's exchange with reporters.

"Not a single attempt to declare a ceasefire has in practice been supported by the Kiev regime, which continued to violate the truce. This shows that the regime is staking everything on war," Galuzin told Izvestia, adding: "moreover, Kiev’s self-imposed legislative ban on negotiations with Russia remains in effect."

And separately, Russian roving diplomat for the Donbass, Rodion Miroshnik, said "There is no basis to suggest that Ukraine is ready to alter its actions on the ground in any way. We do not see this happening. All we observe is erratic, pseudo-peacekeeping rhetoric. Hollow declarations of peace are not enough, we do not see any indication that Ukraine is demonstrating or confirming a willingness to pursue a ceasefire."

To review, Russia has this month put forth the following key demands to end the war:

• an end of Ukraine's ban on negotiations with Russia,
• for Ukraine to go back to the status of a neutral and non-aligned country in accordance with the Declaration of State Sovereignty of Ukraine in the 1990's,
• an end of the policies of legally and physically destroy everything Russian: the language, media, culture, traditions, and Russian orthodoxy
• the international recognition of Russia's ownership of Crimea, the DPR, LPR and the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions.

Trump argues it has been easier to deal with Putin than Zelensky pic.twitter.com/TsajLRSaBB

— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) April 29, 2025

The reality remains that neither Ukraine nor Washington seem any closer to accepting all of these terms, despite months of back-and-forth dialogue, and several rounds of US and Russian delegations meeting. Meanwhile, Zelensky has been coming under threat from some of his own commanders as they warn him not to give up territory to Russia for the sake of peace.

Authored by Catrina Barker via The Center Square,

An Illinois appellate court judge says the arrest of Wisconsin Judge Hannah Dugan was "reminiscent of King George, Hitler and Mussolini." An Illinois constitutional attorney disagrees.

Judge James Knecht criticized the Trump administration's heavy-handed courthouse arrest of Dugan. 

“The administration practiced jack booted, ham handed, procedures to arrest Judge Dugan at the courthouse. Reminiscent of King George, Hitler and Mussolini,” Knecht wrote. 

David Shestokas, a constitutional attorney who ran in the Republican primary for Illinois Attorney General, accused Dugan of defying federal authority by helping an illegal immigrant avoid Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents.

“The problem is, she just exhibited her own disrespect for the authority of the federal government. In terms of providing her with your typical kind of nonviolent courtesy, you know, we'll give you a call and you can come and turn yourself in sort-of-thing. She had just demonstrated her own disrespect for the federal officers,” said Shestokas. 

Knecht called the arrest an “overreach.” He suggested the proper approach would have been to contact Dugan’s chief judge, the court administrator, and Wisconsin’s chief justice to clarify how state judges should interact with ICE.

“Am I asking for a judge to receive special treatment? No – Judge Dugan is being used as an example to strike fear into the heart of state authorities, judges included,” stated Knecht. “The state judiciary and the federal authorities are obligated to cooperate. One does not encourage such cooperation by arresting a judge to punish her for what may have been a mistake in judgment, or a reaction to the furor over immigration policy.”

Shestokas said physically arresting the judge is a bit unusual.

“[The federal authorities] were clearly interested in sending a message … that it didn't matter who you are or what position you hold,” said Shestokas. “If, in fact, you aided and abetted someone who was lawfully to be detained by ICE and you interfered with that, you've broken the law and you're subject to arrest.” 

Dugan allegedly led Mexican national Eduardo Flores-Ruiz and his lawyer out a restricted jury door to avoid ICE agents, a route the judge controls, according to Shestokas.

Knecht said on social media that he usually sleeps peacefully. However, he suggested he was awake thinking about Dugan’s arrest.

“I did not sleep well last night. I usually sleep peacefully. I was thinking about Judge Dugan in Wisconsin,” stated Knecht. “Some states and cities have laws or policies to not assist federal authorities such as ICE or FBI – of course, not assisting is not the same as obstructing. For me, the issue is not what Judge Dugan did (I do not support how she handled this) but how the authorities responded.”

In 2023, Knecht received $249,337 in pension benefits from the Illinois Judges Retirement System. 

Shestokas said Knecht’s social media post reflected a call for judges to be treated with a certain level of respect.

“I have no idea why there was any suggestion that there should be a consultation with the Wisconsin Supreme Court to determine how judges are supposed to do things. We know they’re not supposed to help criminals avoid arrest, prosecution, or detention,” said Shestokas. “It's not unusual at all to inform the judge that there's agents of whatever law enforcement agency outside intending to arrest someone when they leave the courtroom.”

Shestokas said no one uses the jury door without the judge’s permission, and despite being courteously informed about the planned arrest, she responded by allegedly breaking the law.

“Judge Duggan was given a heads up that there were agents outside the courtroom preparing to arrest an individual that was in their charge with the crime. And after she was given that heads up, apparently she sent a message to the agents that they should go visit with the chief judge. And then apparently she took the guy they wanted outside the side door, out the jury door,” said Shestokas. 

Knecht served as a law clerk to Illinois Supreme Court Justice Robert C. Underwood from 1973 to 1974, then as an Associate Circuit Judge from 1975 to 1978, and as a Circuit Judge from 1978 to 1986, before being elected to the Fourth District Appellate Court in 1986.

In our preview of META's Q1 results this afternoon (ahead of which Goldman's desk had positioning as a 7 out of 10), we said that it feels like centuries ago that META had that 20-day winning streak in Jan/Feb with the name now nearly 30% below YTD highs, which put tactical positioning in cleaner spot into today's print relative to recent META prints (bear case focused on macro/tariff-related risks to Revenues vs elevated capex/expense burdens). Well, the bulls can exhale because the results which META just reported will give them another taste of what that meltup felt lik,  because the stock is surging 5% on a big top and bottom line beat, coupled with an increase to the capex guidance.

Here is are the blowout results which META reported for Q1:

• EPS $6.43 vs. $4.71 y/y, beating estimate $5.25
   
• Revenue $42.31 billion, +16% y/y, beating estimate $41.38 billion
  • Advertising rev. $41.39 billion, +16% y/y, beating estimate $40.55 billion
  • Family of Apps revenue $41.90 billion, +16% y/y, beating estimate $40.89 billion
  • Reality Labs revenue $412 million, -6.4% y/y, missing estimate $496 million
  • Other revenue $510 million, +34% y/y, beating estimate $498.6 million
     
• Operating income $17.56 billion, +27% y/y, beating estimates of $15.52 billion
  • Family of Apps operating income $21.77 billion, +23% y/y, beating estimates of $20.04 billion
  • Reality Labs operating loss $4.21 billion, +9.5% y/y, above the estimated loss $4.54 billion
• Operating margin 41% vs. 38% y/y, beating estimate 37.5%

 

• Ad impressions +5% vs. +20% y/y, missing estimates of +6.87%
  • Average price per ad +10% vs. +6% y/y, beating estimates of +6.75%
  • Average Family service users per day 3.43 billion, +5.9% y/y, beating estimates of 3.33 billion

Here are some of the key charts from the quarter, starting with Revenue by geography:

EPS:

Segment results:

Expenses continued to shrink:

Users are growing...

... as is revenue per user

Meta needs its advertising business to continue growing in order to fund an expensive expansion in artificial intelligence, which is driving the future of the business through improvements to ads, algorithms and personalization. Sure enough, the guidance was solid, if harldy stellar:

• For Q2, META expects revenue to be in the range of $42.5-45.5 billion, in line with the estimate of $44.1 billion.
• For the full year, META expects total expenses to be in the range of $113-118 billion, down from the prior outlook of $114-119 billion.

But perhaps most important, at a time when everyone was freaking out about sliding capex, Meta boosted its capex forecast, and now sees it be in the range of $64-72 billion, increased from our prior outlook of $60-65 billion. 

This updated outlook "reflects additional data center investments to support our artificial intelligence efforts as well as an increase in the expected cost of infrastructure hardware. The majority of our capital expenditures in 2025 will continue to be directed to our core business."

This is important because while META once again missed on its actual capex, spending $12.94BN on property and equipment in Q1, well below the $14.239BN expected...

... the company is once again hockeysitcking its capex forecast, and is clearly backloading spending in the second half of the year, when at least according to most nevertrumper eceonomists, the US will be in a deep recession.

In response to the blowout earnings, shares rose as much as 5.6% in after-hours trading, after closing at $549. Meta stock was down more than 6% year-to-date before the company reported earnings, still performing better than most of America’s biggest technology companies amid the recent market selloff.

The full META presentation is below (pdf link).

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A top Trump administration official confirmed that Tesla CEO Elon Musk, a senior adviser to President Donald Trump, is no longer working from the White House.

(L-R) Elon Musk, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick walk toward Marine One on the south lawn of the White House in Washington on March 7, 2025. Travis Gillmore/The Epoch Times

“Instead of meeting with him in person, I’m talking to him on the phone, but it’s the same net effect,” White House chief of staff Susie Wiles told the New York Post in an interview published Tuesday.

Musk, who leads the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), “hasn’t been here physically, but it really doesn’t matter much,” Wiles said. “His folks aren’t going anywhere.”

Wiles said they are working in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building near the West Wing of the White House.

“He’s not out of it altogether. He’s just not physically present as much as he was,” Wiles said. “The people that are doing this work are here doing good things and paying attention to the details. He’ll be stepping back a little, but he’s certainly not abandoning it. And his people are definitely not.”

The Epoch Times contacted the White House for additional comment on Wednesday.

Last week, Musk told Tesla investors on a call that he would be stepping away from DOGE and White House work starting in May. As a special government employee, Musk also has to leave the government within 130 days of beginning his role there.

Musk said on the call that he will continue to support the Trump administration and DOGE “to make sure that the waste and fraud that we stop does not come roaring back.”

He made those remarks as his company posted lower-than-anticipated profits and net revenue for the first quarter of 2025. Tesla has also been subject to a series of arson attacks and vandalism since Musk joined the administration, leading to several arrests, which Musk has decried.

Before that, Trump told reporters on April 3 that Musk will leave in “a few months” and noted that he has “companies to run,” stressing he wants the tech billionaire to “stay as long as possible.”

Vice President JD Vance said in an early April Fox News interview that after Musk leaves the administration, he will provide recommendations to the administration because “DOGE has got a lot of work to do.”

Since taking office on Jan. 20, Trump has been on a cost-cutting spree that has taken recommendations from DOGE, including the slashing of tens of thousands of federal jobs and the attempted dismantling of multiple agencies. DOGE and the administration have faced a number of lawsuits, with some judges temporarily pausing DOGE’s access to multiple agencies.

A DOGE website that gives regular updates says that some $160 billion has been saved to date, while more than 8,400 government contracts and more than 9,600 grants have been terminated so far. The organization has also canceled some 470,000 credit cards used by dozens of federal agencies since it started.

But the effort to slash government funding is not without critics. Congressional Democrats on Tuesday, without naming DOGE, said that Trump and Musk have blocked more than $400 billion in funding that they say was approved by Congress.

“Instead of investing in the American people, President Trump is ignoring our laws and ripping resources away,” said Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), the top Democrats on the Senate and House appropriations committees.

House Democrats in a letter this month also reminded Musk that he must leave the government before May 30, and asked for confirmation that he would do so.

“We demand an immediate public statement from your administration making clear that Musk will resign and surrender all decision making authority,” the letter said.

On the heels of Microsoft's decision to walk away from discussions to lease new server farm space and slow construction on land it already owns, all eyes are on the giant tech company's fiscal third-quarter earnings tonight for any signs of slowing on data center spending plans when it reports Wednesday.

“We believe that the Azure results and guidance as well as Microsoft’s commentary on capex are going to be the keys to the quarter,” wrote Kirk Materne, an analyst at Evercore ISI.

Investors watch these expenses closely for a glimpse of long-term cloud and AI demand expectations from the world’s largest software maker.

So, what's the score?

MSFT beat on EVERYTHING...

Microsoft beat on the top line with Q3 revenues of $70.07 Billion (well above the $68.48 billion consensus) and the bottom line (EPS $3.46 vs $3.22 consensus)

• Microsoft Cloud revenue $42.4 billion, estimate $42.22 billion

• Intelligent Cloud revenue $26.8 billion, estimate $25.99 billion

• Azure and other cloud services revenue Ex-FX +33%, estimate +31%

• Productivity and Business Processes revenue $29.9 billion, estimate $29.65 billion

• More Personal Computing revenue $13.4 billion, estimate $12.67 billion

Cloud revenue surged more than expected with revenues of $42.4 billion (above the $42.22 billion consensus),

“We delivered a strong quarter with Microsoft Cloud revenue of $42.4 billion, up 20% (up 22% in constant currency) year-over-year driven by continued demand for our differentiated offerings,” said Amy Hood, executive vice president and chief financial officer of Microsoft.

Azure & Other Cloud revenue (es-FX) up 35% (better than the 31% consensus).

...AI growth making up 16ppts of that 35% (exp 15.6ppts)...

“Cloud and AI are the essential inputs for every business to expand output, reduce costs, and accelerate growth," said Satya Nadella, chairman and chief executive officer of Microsoft. 

“From AI infra and platforms to apps, we are innovating across the stack to deliver for our customers.”

Operating income was also a solid beat: $32.00 billion, estimate $30.31 billion

But after 10 consecutive quarters of increased spending for artificial intelligence, the company has put on the brakes.

While top-line capital expenditure was $16.75 billion vs. $10.95 billion y/y (above the $16.28 billion consensus)

But, in the first three months of 2025, Microsoft spent $21.4 billion on Capital expenditures including assets acquired under finance leases, down more than $1 billion from the previous quarter (and below the $22.56 billion consensus).

The company is still on track to spend more than $80 billion on capital expenses in the current fiscal year, which ends in June. But, as The NY Times notes, the pullback, though slight, is an indication that the tech industry’s appetite for spending on A.I. is not limitless.

As a result of all this, MSFT shares are soaring after hours...

...and we can't help but wonder if someone 'knew' about this 'early' given the moves in the market in the last minutes before the bell.

All eyes now on the call for any signals of a reduction in CapEx (expected at $88 billion for the fiscal year ending in June and $100 billion for the following fiscal year).

A slowdown in economic activity, combined with growing tariff uncertainty, appears to be curbing consumer appetite for highly processed junk food. The latest trends show a declining demand for sweet snacks in North America as more shoppers shift their spending toward real food, such as meat, vegetables, and eggs. 

Mondelez International — the maker of Sour Patch Kids, Oreos, Ritz, Toblerone, Cadbury, and other highly processed food brands — reported slower-than-expected sales for the first quarter.

Organic revenue, which excludes currency fluctuations and one-time items, increased 3.1%, falling short of the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 3.5%. Notably, sales in North America declined during the quarter. 

On an earnings call, Mondelez CEO Dirk Van de Put told analysts: "I really do not expect to see a significant improvement in consumer confidence in the near term in the US." 

"Two, three years ago consumers would easily pay above $4 for a pack of biscuits," Van de Put said adding, "We're now seeing that we need to be below $4 and ideally below $3."

Mondelez noted that shoppers are beginning to prioritize real food — if that's meat, vegetables, and eggs — over snacks, chips, and candy. Also, lower-income consumers are pivoting towards smaller packages, while higher-income consumers are searching for larger value bundles. 

Mondelez reiterated its full-year guidance and warned profit will slide 10% this year "due to unprecedented cocoa cost inflation."

Weighing in on the North American junk food slowdown, Goldman analysts Leah Jordan and Eli Thompson offered clients their first take on Mondelez's first-quarter results and its unchanged full-year outlook:

1. North America came in softer-than-expected on the back of retailer destocking and softer cracker demand as the consumer remains value-focused;

2. chocolate elasticity tracked in-line with expectations, although more pricing is still to come; and

3. MDLZ reiterated its FY25 guide in constant currency while potential upside is likely to be reinvested throughout the year to support potential growth in FY26

The key takeaway for the North American market:

• North America softer-than-expected: Organic net sales in North America came in softer-than-expected at -3.6% (vs GS/consensus of flat/+0.1%), largely due to retailer destocking (-250 bps), while segment profitability also missed. The destocking impact should be one time in nature, but we do not expect it to reverse as we have heard from retailers that this effort has been driven by efficiency gains. Additionally, MDLZ noted softer demand for crackers (vs cookies), although both categories are holding up relatively better than other parts of snacking, plus the company is holding share due to investments in price pack architecture and key activations. Additionally, management spoke to increasing promotional activity by peers in crackers, and we see greater private label competition in the category as well. Regarding consumer behavior, the company noted a shift to smaller pack sizes by the lower end and toward multi-packs for upper income cohorts, along with a shift in channels toward dollar stores, clubs, and value retailers.

Details about the cocoa market:

• Chocolate elasticity tracking in-line, although more pricing still to come: MDLZ indicated elasticity within chocolate tracked in-line with expectations at -0.5%, while it gained share in the category. However, more pricing will be implemented in the spring with management taking a wait and see approach while expressing confidence in its chocolate strategy with a range of price points. The company expects a top line acceleration throughout the year, supported by both pricing and volumes, with Easter strength noted for 2Q and pricing negotiations are now complete in Europe (vs a disruption last year). By region, management highlighted solid Easter chocolate demand for Europe/UK, Brazil, and Australia, with stable YTD elasticities noted for Europe and Emerging Markets. Notably, MDLZ indicated greater elasticity for chocolate in the U.S. vs ROW with volumes tracking down -5%, which is a negative read-through for HSY.

Notes on guidance:

• Reiterated FY25 guide with potential upside expected to be reinvested: MDLZ reiterated its FY25 guidance with an adj EPS decline of -10% (constant currency), noting potential upside would likely be reinvested (e.g., 1Q beat planned to be reinvested in marketing this year), while the tariff impact remains small. FY25 organic sales guidance was also reiterated at +5%, with sequential improvements supported by both volume and pricing. We also expect a gross margin improvement throughout the year tied to its pricing action. Regarding FY26, MDLZ expects EPS growth y/y, but management stopped short on the magnitude of potential ranges given cocoa uncertainty. For cocoa, the company still sees a supply/demand surplus with further demand destruction likely (as some will likely reformulate). Furthermore, the company sounded constructive on its position given lower cocoa butter prices y/y, its bigger input exposure.

Despite key downside risks, such as an economic slowdown, Goldman analysts remained "Buy" rated on Mondelez, with a 12-month price target of $71. 

Mondelez did not indicate that the slowdown in junk food demand was influenced by the "Make America Healthy Again" movement in any way (well at least not yet). 

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: The Houston Independent School District is facing a budget deficit that at one point reached $250 million, but that did not stop Superintendent Mike Miles from accepting a $126,730 bonus in April to supplement his $380,000 salary.

Key facts: Miles’ bonus was calculated after he received a 66.7 out of 100 on his first annual evaluation from the school board that measured student performance, “executive leadership” and “vision,” according to the Houston Chronicle. A perfect score would have netted Miles a $190,000 bonus.

The school district has struggled with funding for years, as have other large school districts in Texas. The state government has not increased public school funding since 2019 to keep pace with inflation, and yet some of Houston’s struggles come simply from overspending. Cumulative inflation from 2019 to 2024 in the U.S. was 22%, but Houston ISD increased its payroll by 29% in that timespan, according to OpenTheBooks’ database. 

Last year the school released an audit detailing “overtime abuse” that forced the district to pay $26 million in one year. Auditors also found an “overreliance on purchased services” and “overuse of consultants with several other costs to overall effectiveness.”

The district began the current school year with a $125 million deficit, but Miles asked the school board to approve an amendment that increased spending and ballooned the deficit to $250 million, forcing the district to dig into its reserves and one-time savings.

Next year the district projects a $33 million deficit after laying off 1,500 employees. Miles is also considering closing some school buildings to cut costs.

Search all federal, state and local government salaries and vendor spending with the AI search bot, Benjamin, at OpenTheBooks.com. 

Supporting quote: Miles told the school’s community advisory committee, “I assure you, that bonus and incentive was well deserved, and I know my value, and achievement results show that.”

Critical quote: The Houston Chronicle’s editorial board equated Miles’ 66.7 evaluation score to a “D,” claiming that “It’s a lousy grade. The kind you bury at the bottom of your backpack in hopes it disappears before somebody sees. That's essentially what the district tried to do. Chronicle reporters had to file a public information request to get a copy of the evaluation.”

Summary: Houston is far from the only school district giving its superintendent a generous bonus, but a fiscal crisis — and a “D” grade — is not the time to do it. 

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

*  *  *

You can support ZeroHedge by picking up a waxed canvas hat!

Click hat... add to cart... check out... receive awesome hat...

 

Via American Greatness,

Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) has reintroduced the “Preventing Elected Leaders from Owning Securities and Investments” (PELOSI) Act that would prohibit members of Congress and their families from trading stocks while in office.

The name of the act is a direct nod in the direction of 20 term Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) whose net worth has soared from $160,000 when she was first elected in 1987 to more than $140 million in 2024.

The bill to ban congressional stock trading is entitled the PELOSI Act, or "Preventing Elected Leaders from Owning Securities and Investments."

I usually don't like cute names for pieces of legislation, but this one hit the nail on the head. Bravo.

Pass it!! pic.twitter.com/pN8nicKJRx

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) April 29, 2025

Pelosi’s husband Paul, who narrowly survived a hammer attack 2022, is an investor who has made significant financial gains on stock trades that some speculate may have been based on insider information.

Hawley first introduced the PELOSI Act in 2023 but it failed to gain traction under the Biden administration.

Since then, the proposal has gained support on both sides of the congressional aisle and Fox News reports that President Trump has said he would “absolutely” sign the ban if it arrives on his desk.

Hawley has been a consistent critic of members of Congress being more focused on day-trading than they are on representing their constituents.

In a statement, Hawley said, “Americans have seen politician after politician turn a profit using information not available to the general public. It’s time we ban all members of Congress from trading and holding stocks and restore Americans’ trust in our nation’s legislative body.”

The PELOSI Act would prohibit lawmakers and their spouses from purchasing, selling or holding stocks during the time that the lawmaker is in office.

Lawmakers would still be able to invest in U.S. Treasury Bonds, diversified mutual funds or exchange-traded funds while in office.

Should the PELOSI Act be signed into law, current members of Congress would have 180 days to comply with newly elected members being required to comply with in 180 days of entering office.

Lawmakers who violate the act would be required to hand over their profits to the U.S. Treasury Department and could also face fines of up to 10% on each transaction.

It had already been a miserable month for oil, which has suffered its worst monthly performance since 2021 and also is on pace for its month of April on record... and then it got even worse when shortly before noon ET, when Reuters reported, citing multiple sources, that Saudi Arabian officials are briefing allies and industry experts to say the kingdom is unwilling to prop up the oil market with further supply cuts and can handle a prolonged period of low prices.

This shift in Saudi policy could suggest a move toward producing more and expanding its market share, a major change after five years spent balancing the market through deep output as a leader of the OPEC+ group of oil producers. Those cuts had supported prices, in turn bolstering the oil export revenue that many oil producers rely on, but many OPEC+ members - most notably Kazakhstan - took advantage of the production restraint and blew away through their export quotas, infuriating other cartel members.

Sure enough, Reuters notes that Riyadh has been angered by Kazakhstan and Iraq producing above their OPEC+ targets. And after pushing members to adhere to those targets and to compensate for oversupply in recent months, a frustrated Riyadh is changing tack, OPEC+ sources said.

Saudi Arabia pushed for a larger-than-planned OPEC+ output hike in May, a decision that helped send oil prices below $60 a barrel to a 4-year low.

And now that Kazahkstan blew it for all cartel members, everyone will share the pain equally, as lower prices are bad news for producers that rely on oil exports to fund their economies. Although producers like Saudi have a very low cost of production, they need higher oil prices to pay for government spending. When oil prices fall, many large oil-producing countries come under pressure to cut their budgets.

And just to confirm that they are not bluffing, the Saudis appear to be briefing allies and experts that they are ready to do just that. The last time they did just that was in March 2020, just before covid shut down the global economy and briefly sent oil prices negative, sparking budget crises across all OPEC members.

Saudi officials in recent weeks have told allies and market participants the kingdom can live with the fall in prices by raising borrowing and cutting costs, the five sources said.

"The Saudis are ready for lower prices and may need to pull back on some major projects," one of the sources said. All sources declined to be named due to sensitivity of the issue.

The problem is that Saudi Arabia needs oil prices above $90 to balance its budget, higher than other large OPEC producers such as the United Arab Emirates, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As a result, Riyadh may need to delay or cut back some projects due to the price drop, analysts have said.

OPEC+, which besides the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also includes allies such as Russia, may decide to speed up output hikes again in June, OPEC+ sources have said. OPEC+ is cutting output by over 5 million barrels or 5% of global supply, to which Saudi Arabia is contributing two-fifths.

Russia, the second largest exporter in OPEC+ behind Saudi Arabia, is aware of Riyadh's plans for faster output increases, said two of the five sources who are familiar with the Russian thinking and conversations with Riyadh. Even so, Russia would prefer the group stick to slower output increases.

Saudi Arabia and Russia, the de facto leaders of OPEC+, make the biggest contributions to OPEC+ cuts. Russia's budget balances at about $70 a barrel and the Kremlin's spending is on the rise due to the Russian war in Ukraine.
Russia may see a further fall in revenue as prices for its discounted, sanctioned oil could fall below $50 a barrel as a result of OPEC+ output rises, one of the two sources said.

Theories on the apparent change in Saudi strategy range from punishing OPEC+ members exceeding their quotas to a move to fight for market share after ceding ground to non-OPEC+ producers such as the United States and Guyana. Higher output may also be a fillip to U.S. President Donald Trump, who has called for OPEC to boost output to help keep U.S. gasoline prices down.

Trump is due to visit Saudi Arabia in May and could offer Riyadh an arms package and a nuclear agreement. OPEC+ decided to triple its planned output increase to 411,000 bpd.

That still leaves OPEC+ holding back more than 5 million bpd, curbs the group aims to unwind by the end of 2026. 

"We would still call this a 'managed' unwind of cuts and not a fight for market share," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

“This confirms the market’s fears that Saudi Arabia’s accelerated unwinds were not temporary, but a long-term strategy shift,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. It raises the question of whether “Saudi is going to repeat the 2020 playbook to dramatically increase production.”

For now the market is voting "yes", and the news sent WTI tumbling as much as 4%,or more than $2 to just under $58, the lowest price since early 2021 (and a level which was only briefly breached after Trump's Liberation Day sent oil to $55 before rebounding rapidly).

OPEC+ rocked the crude market in early April, with a surprise decision to increase supply in May by 411,000 barrels a day, the equivalent of three monthly tranches from a previous plan. Morgan Stanley has said it expects a “meaningful surplus” to develop over time, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. warned the cartel may accelerate planned production increases at a meeting next week.

Beyond OPEC+, non-cartel nations are also expected to add supplies, including drillers in Canada and Guyana, feeding concerns about a global glut.

At the same time, hopes are fading that there will be quick breakthroughs in US-led trade negotiations, weighing on the outlook for energy demand. The US economy contracted for the first time since 2022 in the first quarter as a result of a surge in pre-tariff imports and softer consumer spending. In China, factory activity slipped into the worst contraction since December 2023, revealing early damage from the trade war.