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  1. Site: southern orders
    4 weeks 22 hours ago

    April 30, 2025 at 8:48am

    Front-runner Parolin's audition is a flop 

    Cardinal Pietro Parolin, former Vatican secretary of state, reads his homily while celebrating Mass on the second day of the second day of the "novendiali" -- nine days of mourning for Pope Francis marked by Masses -- in St. Peter's Square April 27, 2025. (CNS photo/Pablo Esparza)

    Cardinal Pietro Parolin had an audition of sorts for pope on Sunday and the reviews are in and hey aren't good. Parolin, seen as a front-runner for the seat of St. Peter, said Mass for 200,000 young people in St. Peter's Square. He praised Pope Francis, but his stilted style left him unable to connect with a crowd. As one cardinal-elector told the National Catholic Reporter, the Mass was a reminder of Francis' charisma and communication gifts and that Parolin lacks both. 

    BUT THEN, THE NCR FREAKS OUT OVER INSULTS HURLED AT THEIR PREFERRED CANDIDATE, CARDINAL TAGLE! THIS COMMENTARY IS OVER THE TOP AND SHOWS THE FEAR OF THE NCR AT THIS JUNCTURE IN PAPAL HISTORY:

    Push title:

  2. Site: southern orders
    4 weeks 22 hours ago

    April 30, 2025 at 8:48am

    Front-runner Parolin's audition is a flop 

    Cardinal Pietro Parolin, former Vatican secretary of state, reads his homily while celebrating Mass on the second day of the second day of the "novendiali" -- nine days of mourning for Pope Francis marked by Masses -- in St. Peter's Square April 27, 2025. (CNS photo/Pablo Esparza)

    Cardinal Pietro Parolin had an audition of sorts for pope on Sunday and the reviews are in and hey aren't good. Parolin, seen as a front-runner for the seat of St. Peter, said Mass for 200,000 young people in St. Peter's Square. He praised Pope Francis, but his stilted style left him unable to connect with a crowd. As one cardinal-elector told the National Catholic Reporter, the Mass was a reminder of Francis' charisma and communication gifts and that Parolin lacks both. 

    BUT THEN, THE NCR FREAKS OUT OVER INSULTS HURLED AT THEIR PREFERRED CANDIDATE, CARDINAL TAGLE! THIS COMMENTARY IS OVER THE TOP AND SHOWS THE FEAR OF THE NCR AT THIS JUNCTURE IN PAPAL HISTORY:

    Push title:

  3. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 23 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Stagflation Scenario Slammed As Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Tumbles To Four Year Lows

    The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE - printed cooler than expected in March, unchanged MoM (vs +0.1% exp), bring prices up 2.6% YoY - the lowest since March 2021...

    Source: Bloomberg

    ...with non-durable goods deflating MoM the biggest drag on Core PCE

    ...but, but, but we were told tariffs would spark hyper-super-scary-inflation?

    The headline PCE was -0.045% MoM - the biggest MoM drop since COVID lockdowns...

    ...dragging headline PCE YoY down to +2.3%...

    SuperCore PCE also saw the YoY pace slow significantly...

    Spending outpaced incomes significantly in March...

    Source: Bloomberg

    Which means that the savings rate fell to 3.9% from 4.1% in February, which was revised lower from 4.6%...

    Adjusted for inflation, real personal spending surged 0.7% MoM (not a total surprise given that 'consumers' are panicking over an imminent surge in inflation, of course they should be spending)....

    It appears DOGE is doing its jobs too - crushing govt wage growth

    • March Government worker wages and salaries up just 2.9%, down from 3.2% in Feb and the lowest since Sept 2020

    • March Private worker wages and salaries up 5.4%, down from 5.7%, and lowest since Dec 2022

    ...and there goes the stagflation scenario.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 10:16
  4. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Judge Bars Border Patrol From Making Warrantless Arrests Of Illegal Immigrants In Parts Of California

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A federal judge in California has barred U.S. Border Patrol agents from arresting suspected illegal immigrants within parts of the state without a warrant or specific evidence that the individual poses a flight risk—while delivering a rebuke to tactics used during a controversial January enforcement sweep.

    Border Patrol agents wait for the arrival of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for a visit to the US-Mexico border in Sunland Park, New Mexico, on Feb. 3, 2025. AP Photo/Andres Leighton, File

    In an April 29 order, U.S. District Judge Jennifer L. Thurston issued a preliminary injunction against the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Border Patrol, siding with the United Farm Workers and five Kern County residents who sued after the raid, dubbed “Operation Return to Sender,” unfolded across the Bakersfield area earlier this year.

    The plaintiffs, represented by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), alleged in their Feb. 26 complaint that the sweep violated their Fourth and Fifth Amendment rights, along with federal immigration statutes governing warrantless arrests and due process.

    Under Thurston’s order, Border Patrol agents operating in California’s Eastern District are now prohibited from making detentions or arrests without first establishing reasonable suspicion of unlawful presence in the country and, for arrests, probable cause that the individual is likely to flee before a warrant can be obtained.

    “The evidence before the Court is that Border Patrol agents under DHS authority engaged in conduct that violated well-established constitutional rights,” Thurston wrote in the ruling.

    The court also restricted the agency’s use of “voluntary departure,” a process by which illegal immigrants agree to leave the United States without a hearing before an immigration judge. Going forward, agents must clearly inform individuals of their rights and obtain genuine, informed consent before initiating such removals.

    The judge further ordered DHS to submit regular reports documenting any warrantless stops or arrests, along with justifications, for the duration of litigation. She also instructed DHS to issue written guidelines clarifying the legal threshold for initiating stops.

    “This guidance shall include, among other things, that refusal to answer questions does not, without more, constitute a basis for reasonable suspicion to justify a detentive stop,” she wrote.

    The case stems from allegations that, beginning in early January 2025, dozens of Border Patrol agents traveled more than 300 miles inland from the U.S.–Mexico border to Bakersfield, targeting predominantly Latino neighborhoods and day laborer gathering spots without individualized suspicion.

    The plaintiffs described “Operation Return to Sender” as a sweeping dragnet based on racial and occupational profiling, claiming agents pulled over vehicles, blocked parked cars, conducted warrantless searches, and detained people without evidence of unlawful presence.

    Once in custody, detainees were allegedly transported to a facility near the border, denied access to attorneys, and pressured into signing “voluntary departure” forms without understanding the consequences—a process plaintiffs described as “summary expulsion” that can carry long-term reentry bans.

    Once in custody, detainees claimed they were transported to a Border Patrol facility near the border, where they were denied access to lawyers and coerced into signing “voluntary departure” forms under misleading pretenses, which they described as a “form of summary expulsion.”

    Attorneys for the Justice Department argued the case should be dismissed, claiming the plaintiffs lacked standing and that no official policy mandated unlawful stops or arrests. They further contended that any potential violations were isolated incidents, not part of a broader pattern, and that the lawsuit had become moot after DHS issued revised internal guidance.

    But the court rejected those arguments, finding that the plaintiffs demonstrated a credible threat of repeated harm. Thurston wrote that the new DHS policy did not eliminate the risk of future violations and “could be withdrawn or altered in the future” without constraint.

    The Epoch Times contacted the Justice Department and the ACLU with requests for comment on the ruling.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 09:40
  5. Site: southern orders
    4 weeks 1 day ago

     This is very hopeful to read from Vatican News. The part I highlight in red is extremely important in reverence to the former Pope Francis and his governing style. 

    Cardinals discuss economic situation of the Holy See at General Congregation

    By Vatican News

    The Director of the Holy See Press Office, Matteo Bruni, told reporters on Wednesday that 180 Cardinals attended the seventh General Congregation, of whom 124 were Cardinal electors.

    In the first part of the meeting, the Cardinals discussed the economic and financial situation of the Holy See, with contributions from Cardinals Reinhard Marx, Kevin Farrell, Christoph Schönborn, Fernando Vergez, and Konrad Krajewski.

    Cardinal Marx, coordinator of the Council for the Economy, presented several challenges, issues, and proposals from the perspective of sustainability, with the goal that the economic structures continue to support the reforms of the papacy.

    Cardinal Schönborn spoke as president of the IOR Oversight Commission, and Cardinal Vergez shared several details regarding the situation of the Governorate of Vatican City State, mentioning the ongoing renovation work.

    Cardinal Krajewski spoke about the activities of the Dicastery for the Service of Charity.

    In the second part of the General Congregation, 14 Cardinals intervened on various topics, including the ecclesiology of the people of God and the wound caused by polarization within the Church and the division in society, (division caused by) synodality and (and division synodality has brought to) episcopal collegiality (all this was discussed) as a way (to find solutions) to overcome polarization. (They also discussed) vocations to the priesthood and religious life.

    Several references were made to the conciliar texts Lumen Gentium and Gaudium et Spes, and they discussed evangelization, especially focusing on the consistency between what is lived and what is proclaimed. (My comment: these two Vatican II documents are wonderful and do provide a correction to the Magisterium of the Former Pope Francis!)

    The General Congregation concluded at 12:30 PM with the prayer of the Regina Coeli.

  6. Site: southern orders
    4 weeks 1 day ago

     This is very hopeful to read from Vatican News. The part I highlight in red is extremely important in reverence to the former Pope Francis and his governing style. 

    Cardinals discuss economic situation of the Holy See at General Congregation

    By Vatican News

    The Director of the Holy See Press Office, Matteo Bruni, told reporters on Wednesday that 180 Cardinals attended the seventh General Congregation, of whom 124 were Cardinal electors.

    In the first part of the meeting, the Cardinals discussed the economic and financial situation of the Holy See, with contributions from Cardinals Reinhard Marx, Kevin Farrell, Christoph Schönborn, Fernando Vergez, and Konrad Krajewski.

    Cardinal Marx, coordinator of the Council for the Economy, presented several challenges, issues, and proposals from the perspective of sustainability, with the goal that the economic structures continue to support the reforms of the papacy.

    Cardinal Schönborn spoke as president of the IOR Oversight Commission, and Cardinal Vergez shared several details regarding the situation of the Governorate of Vatican City State, mentioning the ongoing renovation work.

    Cardinal Krajewski spoke about the activities of the Dicastery for the Service of Charity.

    In the second part of the General Congregation, 14 Cardinals intervened on various topics, including the ecclesiology of the people of God and the wound caused by polarization within the Church and the division in society, (division caused by) synodality and (and division synodality has brought to) episcopal collegiality (all this was discussed) as a way (to find solutions) to overcome polarization. (They also discussed) vocations to the priesthood and religious life.

    Several references were made to the conciliar texts Lumen Gentium and Gaudium et Spes, and they discussed evangelization, especially focusing on the consistency between what is lived and what is proclaimed. (My comment: these two Vatican II documents are wonderful and do provide a correction to the Magisterium of the Former Pope Francis!)

    The General Congregation concluded at 12:30 PM with the prayer of the Regina Coeli.

  7. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    "Nothing To Do With Tariffs" - Trump Blames Biden "Overhang" As Stocks Puke After Q1 GDP

    US equity futures are tumbling in the pre-market following a weak ADP employment report and Q1 GDP contraction (driven by a tariff-front-running surge in imports).

    In the last month or two, we have been told that President Trump is not focused on the stock market, rejecting the idea of a 'Trump Put' (especially when it came to the decision to 'pause' reciprocal tariffs this month).

    However this morning, following the bad data and ugly equity drop, Trump posted on TruthSocial that "This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s."

    I didn’t take over until January 20th. 

    Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers. 

    Our Country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden “Overhang.” 

    This will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers, but when the boom begins, it will be like no other.

    BE PATIENT!!!

    The surge in imports - which dragged down GDP - is due to the tariff decisions, there is no question.

    But also bear in mind that this is not a 'classic recessionary slowdown' in the economy, it is a front-running surge in imports 'ahead' of the tariffs and shrinking government spending.

    The former is a temporary impact, the latter is what America voted for!!

    Interestingly, rate-cut odds are rising notably after the data...

    Which makes us wonder if 'the market' is now switching to search for the 'Fed Put', not the 'Trump Put'.

     

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 09:28
  8. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    US Q1 GDP Contracts On Record Imports, Shrinking Govt, As Consumption Comes In Stronger Than Expected

    There were good and bad news in today's GDP report.

    Starting with the bad news, Q1 GDP printed -0.3%, worse than the -0.2% expected and the first negative print since Q1 2022 when the economy was in a recession but was subsequently revised out of it

    The good news is that the drop was actually supposed to be much worse (recall the Atlanta Fed's latest GDP estimate was -2.7%, or -1.5% excluding record gold imports). Indeed, if one looks at the components of today's GDP print one finds that the number was actually unexpectedly strong, if one strips out the two negative components, net trade and government.

    As shown in the chart below, Q1 GDP comprised of the following components:

    • Personal Consumption 1.21%, down from 2.70%, but translating into an annualized Personal Consumption print of 1.8%, much higher than the 1.2% expected
    • Fixed investment jumped to 1.34%, up from -0.2% and the highest since Q2 2023 as the BEA finally starts tracking data center investment correctly
    • Change in private inventories surged 2.25%, as expected, on the pre-tariff restocking; this number was up from a -0.84% drop last quarter and is expected to reverse in coming quarters as inventories are sold off.
    • Government spending was a negative -0.25%, the first negative print for Joe Biden's favorite "plug" to push GDP higher since 2022.
    • Finally, and most importantly, net trade (exports less imports) was a whopping 4.830% hit to the final GDP number, a 5% swing from the +0.26% contribution in Q4. This was entirely the result of soaring imports (of which gold was about half) in Q1 which hit GDP by a near record 5.03%. Just like inventories, this number will now reverse in coming quarters as tariff frontrunning ends and is reversed.

    And visually:

    Taking a closer look at the import contribution to GDP, which was the biggest swing factor, one can see that at 5.03%, this was the 2nd highest on record with just the outlier covid shock bigger. In other words, absent economic shock, this was a record quarterly print.

    In its commentary, the BEA confirmed as much, writing that "the decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports."

    Compared to the fourth quarter, the downturn in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an upturn in imports, a deceleration in consumer spending, and a downturn in government spending that were partly offset by upturns in investment and exports.

    Turning to inflation, the BEA reported that the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent.

    Putting these in context, GDP Price index of 3.7% came in hotter than the 3.1% expected, while the core PCE of 3.5% was also hotter than the 3.1%.

    Bottom line, the GDP number was much stronger than expected, in fact it was a whopping 2.4% higher than the now laughable AtlantaFed GDP forecast, and if anything this positions the Trump admin for a surprise bounce in Q2 and/or Q3 when all the outlier prints from Q1 are reversed.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 09:04
  9. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Rate-Cut Odds Jump After ADP Reports Weakest Job Growth Since July 2024

    While jobless claims refuse to show even a glimmer of hope to the doomsaying 'recession is imminent and it's all because of Trump' narrative, this morning's ADP gives us a potential glimpse at what Friday's 'most important payrolls print ever' will offer.

    ...and the picture is not pretty at all...

    According to ADP, the US economy added just 62k jobs in April - the lowest since July 2024's dip

    Source: Bloomberg

    Education and health services, information, and professional and business services lost jobs, while hiring in other sectors was moderate.

    "Unease is the word of the day," says Nela Richardson Chief Economist.

    "ADP Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data. It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment."

    Goods-Producing jobs outperformed Service-Providing jobs...

    There is more bad news -

    Pay for job-stayers rose 4.5 percent in April from a year earlier, a slight deceleration from March. 

    Year-over-year pay gains for job-changers accelerated, rising from 6.7 percent in March to 6.9 percent in April - the highest since Dec 2024.

    The question is - will this dreadful jobs print prompt The Fed to come back to the table (or is the wage re-acceleration enough to keep them away)?

    The market is moving that way - pricing in four cuts for 2025 now.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 08:24
  10. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Futures Drop Ahead Of Macro Data, Earnings Deluge

    US equity futures slipped ahead of key GDP and PCE data. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% while Nasdaq 100 contracts lose 0.5%, with Mag 7 names mostly lower (NVDA -1.4%, TSLA -1.1% and META -0.6%) as weak earnings weighed on risk sentiment after Super Micro plunged 16% ahead of Microsoft and Meta numbers later on Wednesday. Bond yields are lower by 1bps to 4.15% while the USD is higher. Overnight, China’s factory PMI slipped into the worst contraction since December 2023 (49 vs 49.7 cons) due to the negative impact of higher US tariffs, while Trump at a rally in Michigan renewed his criticism of Powell, noting he is "not really doing a good job" and that he knows more about interest rates. This morning, Euro Area flash CPI has been mixed, while Q1 GDP data was slightly firmer than expected at 1.2% YoY (vs 1.1% cons). Commodities are mixed: oil is 1.8% lower; previous metals are lower, while base metals are mostly higher. After yesterday’s close, earnings were modestly negative. Particularly, SBUX fell 6.7% on missed earnings amid margin pressure and top-line growth. BKNG commented that there is a moderation in inbound travel into the US, but so far the global leisure travel demand has been stable. Looking ahead today, we have ADP employment, Q1 GDP, PCE and employment cost index. There are no Fed speakers scheduled given blackout ahead of May's FOMC meeting.

    In premarket trading the Mag7 stocks were mostly lower (Alphabet -0.1%, Amazon -0.6%, Apple -0.4%, Meta Platforms -0.9%, Microsoft +0.1%, Nvidia -2%, Tesla -1.3%). First Solar tumbled 12% after the maker of electricity-producing solar modules cut earnings guidance for this year due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Norwegian Cruise Line dropped 7% after warning that cruise demand, which has long defied worrying travel trends, is beginning to weaken.  Snap plunged 13% after the company declined to issue a sales forecast for the current period, saying it is navigating macroeconomic “headwinds” for its advertising business. Starbucks slumped 8% after weaker-than-expected results in the latest quarter amped up pressure for the company’s new management to deliver. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

    • BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO) rallies 9% after the drugmaker reported sales of its recently approved heart drug, Attruby, that crushed expectations.
    • Etsy (ETSY) rises 1% after the online marketplace for crafts reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
    • Freshworks Inc. (FRSH) climbs 9% after the software-as-a-service company boosted its profit and revenue outlook for the year.
    • Garmin (GRMN) falls 6% after the maker of GPS-enabled products posted first-quarter results and provided a year forecast.
    • Oddity Tech (ODD) jumps 17% after the direct-to-consumer beauty and wellness company boosted its net revenue guidance for the full year to a level above Wall Street expectations.
    • Qorvo (QRVO) climbs 8% after the Apple supplier reported adjusted 4Q earnings that topped estimates.
    • Regulus Therapeutics (RGLS) shares are halted after the company entered into an agreement to be acquired by Novartis AG.
    • Seagate (STX) gains 7% after the computer hardware and storage company reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat the average analyst estimate
    • Stride Inc. (LRN) climbs 3% after the online education company boosted its revenue forecast for the full year. Fiscal third-quarter revenue increased 18%.
    • Super Micro Computer (SMCI) tumbles 16% after giving preliminary results that fell well short of analysts’ estimates, a sign its comeback plan has been slow to gain traction.
    • Tenable (TENB) plunges 17% after the cybersecurity company cut its full-year guidance, with analysts noting lower visibility ahead for the stock due to US federal spending uncertainties.
    • Wabash National (WNC) falls 13% after the semi-trailer manufacturing company cut its revenue guidance for the full year.

    Investors have been cautiously optimistic, with the Nasdaq 100 close to erasing all of its losses this month, after tariff U-turns and speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to prevent a recession.  

    “Perhaps we are past peak uncertainty,” Kim Crawford, global rates portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. “The administration has a more conciliatory tone on tariffs and to an extent as well, Fed independence.” Benchmark 10-year Treasuries steadied after six days of gains, with the yield at 4.16%. Gold dropped.

    Four of the so-called Magnificent Seven — Microsoft, Apple Inc., Meta and Amazon.com Inc. — are reporting earnings this week. Analysts expect the group — which also includes Google-parent Alphabet Inc., Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. — to deliver an average of 15% profit growth in 2025, a forecast that’s barely budged since the start of March despite the flareup in trade tensions.

    “Even if you take out the tariff story outcome I think there is an issue for Big Tech and the market will probably start to refocus on that when we get this earnings season,” Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, told Bloomberg TV. “We still have the issue of the massive amount of capex being spent on Big Tech, they’re overspending on this AI story.”

    Economic barometers of US economic health are also due with inflation and GDP data Wednesday that will give a snapshot of activity just before President Donald Trump unleashed country-specific levies on April 2. US real GDP growth likely cooled to a standstill in the first quarter amid disruptions from policy shifts, according to Bloomberg Economics.

    Veteran emerging-markets investor Mark Mobius said he’s keeping 95% of his funds’ holdings in cash as he waits out the trade-related uncertainty. Hedge funds are reluctant to make major bets amid the turmoil, with the only significant shift in positioning in April being increased bets against US stocks, Bloomberg reported.

    In the latest pivot in Trump’s trade strategy, the US president signed an executive order easing the impact of his auto tariffs, preventing duties on foreign-made vehicles from stacking on top of other levies and lessening charges on parts from overseas used to make vehicles in the US. The news supported sentiment toward European auto stocks Wednesday, with Mercedes-Benz Group AG and Stellantis NV rising even after withdrawing their outlooks for this year, citing the uncertainty of trade barriers. 

    In a rally celebrating his first 100 days in office, Trump defended his tariff policies as he marked his 100th day in office. He also renewed criticism of Fed Chair Powell, saying he is “not really doing a good job.”

    In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises for a seventh consecutive session, albeit only slightly, as disappointing earnings keep a lid on gains. Travel & leisure stocks are the worst performers. Energy and bank stocks also underperform with notable declines in TotalEnergies and Credit Agricole after their respective updates. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

    • Societe Generale shares advanced 5.7% after the French lender beat estimates as equities trading hit a record and it booked a gain on disposals.
    • DSV shares rise as much as 11% after the Danish logistics firm gave a reassuring set of results, with analysts highlighting the synergies it set out from its DB Schenker deal.
    • Schindler shares gain as much as 8.2% after the Swiss elevator and escalator maker reported impressive 1Q results with a dynamic order intake and no change in guidance despite US tariffs.
    • Stellantis shares rise as much as 4.2% in Milan after the carmaker released a trading update which Bernstein said included some positives, with pricing ahead of expectations in all key regions.
    • VW shares rise as much as 1.4% after the German carmaker reiterated its full-year guidance, a move JPMorgan called a positive signal.
    • Deutsche Post shares rise as much as 4.1% after the delivery firm’s Ebit came in higher than expected in the first quarter, driven by its Express and Post & Parcel divisions and aided by cost-cutting.
    • Aixtron shares climb as much as 14% after the German chip-tool company’s first-quarter results showed better-than-expected revenue, order levels and positive free cash flow, according to Warburg.
    • Remy shares rise as much as 5.7% as analysts highlighted encouraging signs in the Cognac maker’s earnings, including an improvement in its US market as well as a better outlook for 2026.
    • UMG climbs as much as 7.1% as subscription growth helps to deliver first-quarter results above expectations.
    • Befesa shares rise as much as 13% after the German recycling company’s full-year earnings guidance surprised to the upside.
    • AMS-Osram shares soar 17%, with ZKB analysts saying the Swiss chipmaker reported a good start to the year due to strong performance in its semiconductor business.
    • Credit Agricole fell as much as 4.5% as higher-than-expected costs and a tax bill weighed on profit.
    • TotalEnergies shares fall as much as 4.3% after the French energy company reported results that were in line with expectations, but also an increase in net debt.
    • Mercedes shares drop as much as 2.8% after the carmaker said tariff volatility is too high to give a reliable outlook.
    • Evolution shares drop as much as 18%. The gambling operator reported a miss on revenue and Ebitda in the first quarter, which management attributes to actions including ring-fencing regulated markets in Europe and countermeasures to cyberattacks in Asia.

    Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, on track for a fourth-straight day of gains, as investors were encouraged by a continued rally on Wall Street and optimism over potential trade deals with the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7%. Sony was among the biggest boosts after Bloomberg reported it is considering spinning off its semiconductor unit, while AIA climbed on strong quarterly results. The regional benchmark is poised to close April more than 2% higher, wiping out a steep intra-month loss sparked by US tariffs. The market has been looking toward various concessions from Washington as well as individual nations’ negotiations with the US. President Donald Trump on Tuesday signed an executive order easing the impact of his auto tariffs, while news emerged of discussions with South Korea and Australia. China’s manufacturing activity in April saw its worst contraction since December 2023, exposing early signs of weakness in Asia’s biggest economy from the trade war with the US. Shares of Chinese banks were among the biggest drags on equity benchmarks in Hong Kong and mainland China after weak earnings. 

    In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed. The Aussie dollar outperforms rising 0.2% against the greenback after core inflation rose more than expected. AUD/USD rose as much as 0.5% to 0.6418 before paring the move; the nation’s core inflation in the first quarter beat estimates, damping expectations of rapid rate cuts. The pound and the yen were among the worst performers, down 0.3% and 0.4% against the dollar respectively.

    In rates, treasuries mixed with the long-end outperforming where yields are down around 2bp on the day, supported by wider gains seen across the long-end of Germany and UK bonds after a flurry of European economic data. Ahead of today's quarterly refunding announcement, the 10-year US yield are down 1bps to 4.16%. US yields slightly cheaper across the front-end while richer in the long-end of the curve, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 1.8bp and 2.5bp on the day; US 10-year yields trade down to around 4.16%, richer by 1bp on the day with bunds and gilts outperforming by 2bp and 2.5bp in the sector. European government bonds gain with little reaction shown to a flurry of economic data releases, including a beat for euro-area first quarter GDP. European government bonds rose; German yields were up to 4bps lower across the curve, with gilts mirroring that move; UK 10-year yield down 4bps to 4.40%

    In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 1% to $59.80 a barrel. Spot gold falls $36 to around $3,280/oz. Bitcoin is steady near $94,800. 

    US economic calendar includes April ADP employment change (8:15am), 1Q advanced GDP (8:30am), April MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am), March personal income/spending, PCE price index, pending home sales (10am). Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the May 7 FOMC meeting

    Market Snapshot

    • S&P 500 mini -0.1%
    • Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
    • Russell 2000 mini little changed
    • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
    • DAX +0.5%, CAC 40 +0.4%
    • 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.16%
    • VIX +0.3 points at 24.48
    • Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1222.44
    • euro -0.1% at $1.1371
    • WTI crude -1.3% at $59.63/barrel

    Top Overnight News

    • US President Trump said he achieved the 100 most successful days for a president in US history, while he noted a lot of auto jobs and companies are coming in and we're restoring the rule of law and ending the inflation nightmare. Trump renewed his criticism of Jerome Powell, saying the Fed chair’s “not really doing a good job.” He also championed his tariff regime at a rally that came just hours after he signed a pair of executive orders pulling back some of his auto levies.
    • US Secretary of State Marco Rubio plans to speak with the foreign ministers of India and Pakistan in an attempt to calm tensions. BBG
    • Trump continues to float fresh tax cut proposals while Republicans struggle to agree on ways to lower the cost of the reconciliation bill. Axios
    • Top Trump advisor reportedly struggled to soothe investors in talks after market tumult in which Stephen Miran met with hedge funds and big asset managers after tariffs sparked Wall Street turmoil, according to FT.
    • China’s factory PMI slipped into the worst contraction since December 2023, revealing early damage of US tariffs. Beijing has created a list of US-made products that would be exempted from its 125% tariffs. BBG
    • Chinese sovereign investor CIC is selling about $1 billion of its private equity investment portfolio in the secondary market. The assets are held in a number of funds managed by eight U.S. fund managers, including Blackstone Inc and Carlyle Group. RTRS
    • Huawei has started the delivery of its advanced AI chip “cluster” to Chinese clients who are increasing orders after being cut off from Nvidia’s semiconductors because of Washington’s export restrictions. FT
    • Japan eco data falls short for Mar, including retail sales (-1.2% M/M vs. the Street -0.7%) and industrial production (-1.1% M/M vs. the Street -0.4%). BBG
    • The euro-area economy grew 0.4% last quarter, more than expected, though is yet to feel the full force of US tariffs. The German and French economies returned to growth. BBG

    A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newquawk

    APAC stocks failed to sustain the positive handover from Wall St and traded mixed at month-end as the region digested a slew of data including disappointing Chinese official PMIs, while there was a muted reaction and very few surprises from US President Trump's speech to commemorate his first 100 days back in office. ASX 200 eked mild gains as strength in tech, healthcare and financials offset the losses in the utilities and commodity-related sectors but with the upside limited after firmer-than-expected CPI data saw money markets fully price out the chances of a larger 50bps RBA rate cut in May. Nikkei 225 was choppy with the upside contained following disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales, while the BoJ also kick-started its two-day policy meeting and there were some comments from a group representing major foreign automakers which noted that President Trump's latest tariff order for autos provides some relief but more must be done. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive after official Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs disappointed although Caixin Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts, while the mainland heads into a five-day weekend owing to Labor Day holiday closures and participants also reflected on key earnings releases including disappointing results from China's Big 4 banks.

    Top Asian News

    • Chinese President Xi says China is to adjust economic plans based on global change; to promote transformation of traditional industries; says they are to stabilize markets and expectations Urges to address weak links in economy. Urges to achieve goals in all aspects. Says to understand impact of changes in international situation. Says China to optimize economic planning based on situations. Urges measures to stabilize employment. Says to promote transformation of traditional industries. Says China to adjust economic plan based on global change. Says China needs to adapt to changing situations.
    • China NPC standing committee passed the private sector promotion law which will take effect from May 20th.
    • Australian Treasurer Chalmers said the market expects more interest rate cuts after inflation figures and he doesn't see anything in the data as substantially altering market expectations.

    European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) opened mostly firmer and have traded tentatively within a tight range ahead of the day’s key risk events. European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Media (lifted by post-earning strength in UMG) and Telecoms takes the top spots, whilst Travel & Leisure and Basic Resources underperform. rnings include: Mercedes Benz (-0.8%) down Y/Y, high uncertainty noted; Volkswagen (U/C) miss, expects results at lower-end of guidance; UBS (+0.2%) beat; Stellantis (+1.5%) in-line, suspends guidance; Barclays (-0.3%) beat, upgrades NII guidance; GSK (+4%) beat; TotalEnergies (-3.2%) mixed, continue buybacks, confident in growth objective; ASM International (U/C) orders & margin beat; Air France (+1.6%) beat, confirms outlook; Iberdrola (-1.3%) mixed, expect strong performance ahead.

    Top European News

    • Germany's SPD has approved the coalition deal with the CDU/CSU, via Reuters citing sources. SPD's Klingbeil will be the Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister of the new German Government, according to German media.

    FX

    • DXY is currently building on Tuesday's gains in quiet trade. The two main drivers for price action were relief on the tariff front (autos) and soft US data (JOLTS and Consumer Confidence). Data will likely provide some impetus for the Greenback today with Q1 GDP/PCE and monthly PCE due on the docket. Q1 GDP may be seen as stale in some quarters given its precedes the announcement of US tariffs. DXY has ventured as high as 99.43 with Monday's peak at 99.83.
    • EUR softer vs. the USD in what has been a busy morning of data which kicked off with steady French GDP, hot French inflation and in-line German GDP which saw the nation avoid a technical recession, but ultimately showed a Y/Y contraction. Thereafter, Eurozone GDP exceeded expectations (Q/Q 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2%) but failed to have any sway on the EUR given that it doesn't capture the impact of Trump's tariffs (aside from some potential front-loading of orders).
    • USD/JPY is higher after Japanese Industrial Production and Retail Sales disappointed overnight, prompting concerns over a negative outturn for Q1 GDP. Attention now turns to the BoJ, where the Bank is expected to keep rates steady. USD/JPY is north of Tuesday's high at 142.75 but is yet to approach the 143 mark.
    • GBP is slightly softer vs. the USD and EUR with fresh macro drivers on the light side. Tier 2 data via the Lloyds Business Barometer and Nationwide House Index had little sway on GBP. On the trade front, the Guardian reports that US officials have split trade negotiations into three phases; the UK has reportedly been placed in either phase two or three. UK officials are also concerned that any EU-UK deal could make negotiations with the US more challenging.
    • AUD is the marginal outperformer across the majors on account of firm inflation metrics overnight (Q/Q 0.9% vs. exp. 0.8%, Y/Y 2.4% vs. exp. 2.3%).
    • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2014 vs exp. 7.2670 (Prev. 7.2029).

    Fixed Income

    • A relatively contained start to the session with USTs holding onto Tuesday’s spoils, firmer by a handful of ticks in a 112-03 to 112-09 band. Limited resistance in the near-term, nothing of particular note until 114-03+ from early April and thereafter 114-10. On the data front, the docket begins with ADP as a preview into Friday’s NFP. Thereafter, Q1 GDP, PCE and Employment Costs due. Afterwards, we get the monthly PCE figure.
    • Bunds began the morning holding at the top-end of Tuesday’s 131.16-46 parameters, in-fitting with USTs. Then, after the European cash equity open, EGBs began to gradually pick up and despite being knocked briefly by marginally hotter German state CPI metrics than mainland consensus implies, Bunds are at a fresh 131.74 peak. EZ GDP metrics came in above expectations, but ultimately had little impact on the complex given the survey period does not include the implementation of Trump tariffs. German 2041 & 2044 outings were mixed, but ultimately had little impact on the complex.
    • Gilts are outperforming, gapped higher by just over 10 ticks and then in-fitting with EGBs after the cash equity open began to extend higher and hit a 93.68 high for the session. Strength occurs despite a lack of fresh drivers in today’s session thus far aside from supply, an auction that came in strong with another b/c well clear of the 3x mark and a slim tail. Results sparked a modest bid in Gilts but one that occurred within existing 93.35-68 confines.
    • UK sells GBP 4.5bln 4.375% 2028 Gilt: b/c 3.48x (prev. 3.27x), average yield 3.834% (prev. 4.263%) & tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.4bps).
    • Germany sells EUR 1.143bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.60% 2041 and EUR 0.452bln vs exp. EUR 0.5bln 2.50% 2044 Bunds.

    Commodities

    • Crude is softer for the third session in a row following yesterday's slide which now sees WTI back under USD 60/bbl. Desks pin the downside to ongoing tariff risks alongside expectations of OPEC+ further opening the taps. Furthermore, the bearish Private Inventory report on Tuesday only adds to the downbeat mood. Brent July in a USD 62.17-63.34/bbl range.
    • Precious metals are lower across the board amid a firmer dollar intraday and following US President Trump softening the Auto tariffs, which further unwinds some risk premium. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,280.28-3,328.16/oz range at the time of writing, within Monday's USD 3,268-3,353.20/oz range.
    • Hefty losses across base metals against the backdrop of a firmer dollar coupled with a cautious risk tone. 3M LME copper is currently in a USD 9,206.17-9,436.60/t range at the time of writing.
    • Equinor (EQNR NO) CEO says European gas storage is low, expect a tight market during refilling. Europe will need 200-300 extra LNG cargoes to refill storage this year.
    • US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +3.8mln (exp. +0.5mln), Distillate -2.5mln (exp. -1.7mln), Gasoline -3.1mln (exp. -1.2mln), Cushing +0.7mln.
    • Chile's Codelco Chairman said April Copper production +22% Y/Y.

    Geopolitics: Middle East

    • "Israeli government statement: On Netanyahu's instructions, the army carried out a strike against a group that tried to attack the Druze in Sahnaya (Syria)", via Sky News Arabia.
    • Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi says US sanctions send a negative message during the nuclear talks; E3 will hold talks in Rome on Friday and with the US on Saturday.
    • UK forces participated in a joint operation with US forces against a Houthi military target in Yemen, while the UK said the strike was conducted after dark when the likelihood of any civilians being in the area was reduced and all aircraft returned safely.

    Geopoltiics: Ukraine

    • Kremlin spokesperson says settlement should be reached with Ukraine, and not the US, via Tass "We are working very intensively with the US on Ukraine".
    • US President Trump said he thinks Russian President Putin wants peace but he was not happy when he saw Putin shooting missiles, according to ABC News.
    • White House Press Secretary said President Trump is confident the Ukraine minerals deal will be signed.

    Geopolitics: Other

    • Pakistan's Information Minister said they have credible evidence that India is planning "military aggression" against Pakistan within 24-36 hours.
    • North Korea conducted the first test firing of a new warship, according to Yonhap. It was also reported that South Korean intelligence assessed that North Korea's combat capabilities have improved and that North Korea suffered 600 deaths during its dispatch of troops to Russia, while South Korean intelligence is monitoring a possible surprise summit between North Korea and the US.

    US Event Calendar

    • 7:00 am: Apr 25 MBA Mortgage Applications -4.2%, prior -12.7%
    • 8:15 am: Apr ADP Employment Change, est. 115k, prior 155k
    • 8:30 am: 1Q A GDP Annualized QoQ, est. -0.15%, prior 2.4%
    • 8:30 am: 1Q A Personal Consumption, est. 1.16%, prior 4%
    • 8:30 am: 1Q A GDP Price Index, est. 3.1%, prior 2.3%
    • 8:30 am: 1Q A Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 3.1%, prior 2.6%
    • 8:30 am: 1Q Employment Cost Index, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9%
    • 9:45 am: Apr MNI Chicago PMI, est. 45.9, prior 47.6
    • 10:00 am: Mar Personal Income, est. 0.4%, prior 0.8%
    • 10:00 am: Mar Personal Spending, est. 0.6%, prior 0.4%
    • 10:00 am: Mar PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0%, prior 0.3%
    • 10:00 am: Mar PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.2%, prior 2.5%
    • 10:00 am: Mar Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4%
    • 10:00 am: Mar Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.8%
    • 10:00 am: Mar Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 1%, prior 2%

    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    Welcome to the end of 100 days of Trump 2.0 with markets currently in a period of rare calm over this period. Indeed yesterday the S&P 500 (+0.58%) advanced for a 6th consecutive session and marking its best 6-day run (+7.81%) since March 2022. Interestingly, the latest gain means the index is now out of technical correction territory again, and now “only” stands -9.49% beneath its record high in mid-February and -1.94% below pre Liberation Day levels. This comes ahead of Microsoft and Meta’s earnings after the bell tonight and Amazon and Apple tomorrow. So these will go a long way towards dictating the sentiment of markets given we’re out of the most intense gravitation pull of Liberation Day now. It feels that in the last month or so AI has hardly been discussed as an investment theme after 2 years where it was the only game in town.

    The main trigger for yesterday’s risk-on mood were headlines that Trump would announce some auto tariff relief ahead of tariffs on auto parts coming into force next weekend. The measures, signed later in day, prevent tariffs on autos and on steel and aluminium from stacking up on top of each other and provides partial rebates for domestic car makers on imported auto parts for the first two years. The President framed the move as giving companies “a little flexibility” at a rally yesterday evening, at which Trump also renewed his criticism of Fed Chair Powell, saying he's "not really doing a good job".

    Those tariff headlines supported markets in spite of a weak batch of economic data. That included the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence indicator, which fell to 86.0 in April (vs. 88.0 expected). Not only is that the weakest since May 2020 at the height of the pandemic, but the expectations component saw an even bigger slump to 54.4, marking its lowest since October 2011 when the post-GFC recovery was stalling and the Euro Crisis was escalating. In the meantime, the latest JOLTS report also showed job openings fell to a 6-month low in March of 7.192m (vs. 7.5m expected). Obviously that’s covering a period before Liberation Day, so markets weren’t too focused on that, but it still meant that the ratio of vacancies per unemployed individuals fell to 1.02, which is its lowest so far this cycle.

    The read across for risk assets was probably limited by the fact that the Conference Board reading is still a survey and while the surveys have been consistently negative of late, hard data have been mostly holding up. So it didn’t lead to a major re-assessment about the growth outlook in the way that a negative jobs report might have done. On top of that, the details of the JOLTS report did include some more positive elements, as the quits rate of those voluntarily quitting their job hit an 8-month high of 2.1%. It also didn’t show an escalation in layoffs, as the layoffs and discharges rate fell back to a 9-month low of 1.0%. So it meant investors could still plausibly believe the narrative that a recession would be avoided, even if sentiment had taken a big hit.

    However, the more negative data immediately led investors to price in more Fed rate cuts this year. For instance, the amount of cuts priced by December moved up to 97bps, which is the highest since April 8, just before Trump announced the 90-day tariff extension. In turn, that led Treasury yields to fall across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-4.4bps) falling to 3.65%, its lowest level since October, whilst the 10yr yield (-3.6bps) fell to 4.17%.

    Looking forward, we’ll get a key piece of data today with the Q1 GDP release. Obviously that’s backward-looking and covers the period before Liberation Day, but it will give a strong indication of the extent to which people might have tried to import goods to get ahead of the tariffs. Indeed, yesterday we found that the goods trade deficit hit a record $162bn in March (vs. $145bn expected). So that led to a decent hit in GDP trackers, given that imports subtract from GDP growth. Indeed, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q1 is now at an annualised contraction of -2.7%, and their alternative model that adjusts for imports and exports of gold is still at a contractionary -1.5%. And our own US economists have updated their expectation to a real GDP to contraction of -0.9% in Q1 due to the surge in imports (see their note here). If today’s number does show a decline, that would be the first quarterly contraction since Q1 2022.

    For now at least, equities continued their rally, with the S&P 500 (+0.58%) moving up to its highest level since Liberation Day, led by financials (+0.97%) and materials (+0.93%). Energy stocks (-0.37%) underperformed as Brent crude oil fell -2.44% to $64.25/bbl. Over in Europe, there was also a strong performance, with the STOXX 600 (+0.36%) posting a 6th consecutive gain as well, whilst the DAX (+0.69%) outperformed. The DAX has now entirely erased its losses since Liberation Day, leaving the index +0.16% above its level on April 2 and +12.64% YTD as opposed to -5.45% for the S&P 500. Meanwhile in the UK, the FTSE 100 (+0.55%) posted a 12th consecutive gain, which made it the longest run of gains since 2017.

    Overnight S&P 500 (-0.47%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.64%) futures have fallen, not helped by a -17% after hours drop in Super Micro Computers after posting disappointing results. This is a company that was a darling of the AI world and peaked out at around 118 early in 2024 and will likely open in the low 30s today. The rest of Asia is largely consolidating with the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.24%), Nikkei (+0.17%) and Hang Seng (+0.22) seeing small gains but with mainland Chinese stocks broadly flat. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (-0.60%) is lagging behind its regional peers.

    Coming back to China, the official manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.0 in April this morning, falling short of the expected 49.7 and significantly lower than the previous month's 50.5. This contraction is clearly being attributed to the escalating trade war with the US. The non-manufacturing PMI also disappointed, dropping to 50.4 in April, below the anticipated 50.6 and down from 50.8 in March. Consequently, China’s composite PMI decreased to 50.2 in April from 51.4 in March, barely remaining above the 50 expansion threshold.

    Elsewhere, Australia's Q1 inflation edged up to +2.4% year-over-year (expected +2.3%), holding at a four-year low. The RBA's preferred trimmed mean inflation rate fell from a revised +3.3% to +2.9% in March (expected +2.8%). The data is likely to reinforce the central bank's cautious stance and dampen expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts in the near term. Against this background, the Australian dollar is holding on to its gains, strengthening +0.27% to trade at 0.6401 against the dollar. Meanwhile, yields on the 3yr policy sensitive government bonds are -0.7bps lower settling at 3.31% as we go to print.

    Turning to back Germany, today is an important one in the process to forming a new government, as the vote of the SPD membership on the coalition treaty concludes. In light of this, our economists have put out a fresh note going through that vote (link here), as well as the fiscal timelines for the 2025 budget. Their view is that there is little event risk from the SPD vote, and that they don’t expect any additional fiscal support measures (beyond the coalition treaty) unless there are tangible signs of the trade shock materialising.

    Finally in Europe, sovereign bonds put in a decent performance across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (-2.3bps), OATs (-1.9bps) and BTPs (-2.1bps) all falling back. That came as the European Commission’s latest economic sentiment indicator fell by more than expected in April, down to a 4-month low of 93.6 (vs. 94.5 expected). Separately, the ECB’s survey of consumer inflation expectations showed 1yr expectations up to +2.9%, the highest since April.

    To the day ahead now, and US data releases include PCE inflation for March, Q1 GDP, the Q1 Employment Cost Index, and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for April. Meanwhile in Europe, we’ll get the flash CPI reading for April from Germany, France and Italy, along with German unemployment for April. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Muller, Villeroy and Makhlouf. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Microsoft, Meta and Caterpillar.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 08:17
  11. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Super Micro Tanks On Disappointing Preliminary Results

    Shares of Super Micro Computer plunged in premarket trading in New York after the U.S.-based technology company reported preliminary third-quarter results that missed Bloomberg Consensus estimates. 

    Analysts at JPMorgan do not believe the revenue miss signals a broader industry demand slowdown. Meanwhile, Goldman analysts recently revised their peak data center capacity forecasts forward from late 2026 to this year. 

    "During Q3 some delayed customer platform decisions moved sales into Q4," Super Micro wrote in a business update and preliminary financial results press release on Tuesday evening, adding that it also saw "higher inventory reserves resulting from older generation products."

    Super Micro produces, designs, and manufactures high-performance servers, storage systems, and networking equipment. It's a key supplier of data center hardware, and preliminary results may paint an ominous outlook for the artificial intelligence bubble. 

    The preannouncement forecasted third-quarter revenue between $4.5 billion and $4.6 billion, with earnings per share of 29 to 31 cents — both well below the prior guidance of $5 billion to $6 billion in revenue and earnings per share of 46 to 62 cents.

    Goldman analysts Michael Ng and others provided their first take on the preannouncement:

    Bottom line: SMCI should trade lower on the negative preannouncement which includes a revenue miss – at least in part driven by customer platform decision delays into next quarter – as well as a 220 bps gross margins qoq decline on higher inventory reserves on old products and new product expedite costs. We view read-throughs to the broader AI infrastructure group (e.g., DELL, ANET) as negative given the reference to platform decision delays and the gross margin pressure.

    SMCI negatively pre-announced F3Q25 with a revenue, gross margin, and EPS miss. Revenue of $4.5-$4.6 bn missed GS/consensus of $5.3/$5.4 bn (prior guidance of $5.0-$6.0 bn) with SMCI citing customer delays into F4Q. Gross margins of 9.7% declined 220 bps qoq and reflected higher inventory reserves from older generation product and expedite costs to enable time-to-market for new products. EPS of $0.29-$0.31 missed GS/consensus of $0.53/$0.53 (prior guidance of $0.46-$0.62). SMCI will have its earnings call on May 6 after-market.

    Ng is "Sell" rated on Super Micro ...

    Here's additional analyst commentary on Super Micro (courtesy of Bloomberg):

    Bloomberg Intelligence

    • "Super Micro's preannounced 15% 3Q sales miss vs. prior guidance is indicative of a reliance on mega-AI deals," but "sustained product-design wins suggest AI-server activity could still be intact, despite economic concerns"

    JPMorgan (neutral, PT to $36 from $39)

    • The magnitude of the Super Micro miss is not representative of industry-wide challenges

    • "Given the limited visibility around the opportunity for SMCI to completely catch up to the revenue push-out in the next quarter"

    Citi (neutral, PT $39)

    • "The company cited gross margin declined 220bps qq (Street at 12.0%) on higher inventory reserves and expedite costs, while some customer platform decisions were delayed, shifting sales to 4Q"

    Lynx Equity Strategies

    • "Investor concern is obviously going to be whether the much- anticipated AI capex cuts" is hurting SMCI, but "we do not think there has been a fundamental change in end market dynamics"

    • "Whereas there could be some churn in orders from data centers, we think the US-based nature of SMCI's production renders their shipments to US customers relatively safe"

    Remember last year, when Super Micro delayed its annual report and Ernst & Young abruptly resigned as auditor — a double whammy that sent shares crashing.

    As of Tuesday's close, shares remain 70% below the all-time high of nearly $120 a share, established in early 2024. Shares have yet to recover - and crashed more in premarket on the negative preannouncement, down around 18% at the $29 handle.

    Will end with pointing readers to Goldman's note from three weeks ago, which highlights that the peak data center capacity forecast was revised and brought forward (read: here). 

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 08:05
  12. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Mercedes Cites "Tariffs & Volatility" In Yet Another Withdrawal Of Guidance For Automakers

    Some of Europe's largest automakers have withdrawn their financial guidance for the year, citing mounting macroeconomic uncertainty sparked by President Trump's trade war. While Trump signed an order Tuesday easing specific auto tariffs, Mercedes-Benz Group still withdrew its full-year outlook.

    "The current volatility with regard to tariff policies, mitigation measures and resulting potential direct and indirect effects in particular on customer behaviour and demand is too high to reliably assess the business development for the remainder of the year," Mercedes warned in an earnings press release for the first quarter. 

    Mercedes ships Europe-made vehicles via cargo ships to North America while also producing SUVs, luxury vehicles, EVs, and vans at its Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and Charleston, South Carolina plants.

    At its Tuscaloosa plant, Mercedes manufactures SUVs such as the GLE, GLS, GLE Coupe, and the ultra-luxury Mercedes-Maybach GLS, as well as electric models like the EQE and EQS SUVs. In Charleston, the company produces both the Sprinter and e-Sprinter vans. 

    On Tuesday evening, President Trump signed an executive order aimed at easing the burden of auto-related tariffs. The order includes provisions to lower duties on steel, aluminum, and foreign-made parts, and prevents multiple tariffs from stacking on a single vehicle. However, the 25% tariff on imported vehicles entering the US remains in place. 

    Under the order, additional 25% tariffs on auto parts will begin on May 3, but vehicles that go through final assembly in the US will qualify for partial reimbursements on those levies for two years. 

    At a rally in Michigan, Trump told the crowd his administration will "slaughter them [automakers] if they don't" re-shore critical supply chains of parts to the US.

    Trump announces a rollback in his tariff policy for automobiles, but then says "we give them a little time before we slaughter them if they don't do this." pic.twitter.com/VyOaVXQi9c

    — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 29, 2025

    In addition to Mercedes, Stellantis NV, Volvo Car, and General Motors have all pulled their full-year forecasts because of tariffs. 

    Volkswagen has left its outlook unchanged for the year but warned it has yet to factor in the tariffs, while Aston Martin has announced plans to limit shipments of its luxury sports cars to the US.

    Goldman analyst Jeremy Elster commented on the European auto industry...

    AUTOS... trading flat on the day despite the guidance suspensions and cuts.  Tariff relief is part of the explanation. Perhaps not directly, but because it hints at willingness to bend to industry pressuree on relief (more on tariff relief details from mark Delaney here). Going through the prints today:

    • Mercedes miss & suspend guide. Saying guide would be in tact were it not for tariffs, which makes P911 material downgrades PRE tariff impacts yesterday look even worse in hindsight. The MBG 1Q is a bit better in the details; Cars margin 7.3% vs cons 6.9%, and yet another strong cash quarter (Ind FCF 2,405m vs consensus 1,790m, a 34% beat), albeit this is somewhat overshadowed by the specific cash comment on tariffs; "negative impacts on the cash conversion rates of the automotive segments cannot be ruled out either".  On the call, company saying fy impact of tariffs from here would be around -300bps to Cars margins (i.e. annualised impact would be higher)… implies material downgrades (as much as 400bps vs 7% margin guide starting point, pre mitigation).

    • VW first take is worse of the two German prints. Difficult to marry the optimism we heard from the company through q1 with another margins miss at Brand Group Core, but perhaps tailwinds from stronger Europe production become more evident over q2/q3. Headline group ebit is a -7% miss, margins are a 20bps miss, cash flow is more or less in-line.  Guide is moved to low end of the range, but does not include any impact from tariffs.

    • STLAM 1Q is revenues only, but also a small miss (-1% vs consensus). Net price -3.4% looks a little worse than feared. Guidance is suspended. Inventories ticked up slightly vs Q4 to support better expected deliveries in Europe in Q2. We've started to field some more, very hesitant, constructive incoming on STLA given tariff relief in US (relative to German OEMs), but for the stock to turn the market will need more confidence on cash and market share stabilisation.

    The trade war adds to the problems for European automakers, who face muted demand across Europe and rising competition from Chinese brands, including BYD. 

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 07:45
  13. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Education Department Finds University Of Pennsylvania Violated Title IX Over Transgender Swimmer

    Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) remains in violation of Title IX regulations lingering from a transgender-identifying athlete’s victory in an NCAA women’s swimming title for the school in 2022 and will have 10 days to resolve the issue before the matter is referred to the Department of Justice, federal officials said on April 28.

    Students walk between classes in front of College Hall on the campus of the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia on Sept. 25, 2017. Charles Mostoller/Reuters

    The announcement was made after the Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights sent a notice of noncompliance to UPenn President Larry Jameson.

    Jameson was informed that in addition to complying with current NCAA regulations and President Donald Trump’s February executive order prohibiting males from competing in women’s sports, UPenn was required to relinquish that athlete’s 2022 championship title and issue an apology to the female athletes he defeated.

    The Ivy League school is also expected to issue a statement asserting that all its athletic programs comply with Title IX.

    Title IX is a federal law enacted in 1972 that prohibits educational institutions receiving federal funding from engaging in sex discrimination and assures fairness for NCAA women’s sports programs. President Joe Biden interpreted Title IX to allow people to participate on sports based on their gender identities instead of based on their biological sex, and Trump reversed that under his executive order.

    UPenn must also restore to female athletes their rightful records, titles, and honors, “or similar recognition for Division I swimming competitions misappropriated by male athletes competing in female categories.”

    In addition, “the university must send a letter to each female athlete whose individual recognition is restored, expressing an apology on behalf of the university for allowing her educational experience to be marred by sex discrimination,” the April 28 news release said.

    In 2022, transgender-identifying UPenn student Lia Thomas won a Division I NCAA women’s swimming championship in the 500-yard freestyle event after competing on the men’s team from 2017–2020.

    Riley Gaines, a former Kentucky women’s swimmer who competed against Thomas, and Paula Scanlan, a former teammate of Thomas’s who had to share a locker room with the male athlete identifying as transgender, have lobbied against men’s participation in women’s sports.

    “Little girls who look up to Riley Gaines and Paula Scanlan can find hope in today’s action—the Trump administration will not allow male athletes to invade female private spaces or compete in female categories,” Craig Trainor, Department of Education acting assistant secretary for civil rights, said in the news release.

    “UPenn has a choice to … do the right thing for its female students and come into full compliance with Title IX immediately, or continue to advance an extremist political project that violates federal antidiscrimination law and puts UPenn’s federal funding at risk.”

    The news release does not identify Thomas by name, but it does specify that these events are linked to the NCAA Division I swimming championships.

    The Trump administration has already suspended $175 million of UPenn’s federal funding over issues related to the transgender-identifying swimmer.

    The Epoch Times reached out to UPenn for comment.

    In a March 20 statement, the school noted that it was complying with Trump’s executive orders prohibiting men from competing in women’s sports.

    “Penn is in full compliance with this most recent change,” the statement said. “The university’s athletic programs have always operated within the framework provided by the federal government, the NCAA, and our conference.”

    The Department of Justice recently announced that it will file a lawsuit against Maine for allowing high school transgender-identifying male athletes to compete on the state’s women’s teams.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 07:20
  14. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    US NatGas Deemed "Oversold" By Goldman Ahead Of Summer

    Samantha Dart, Goldman's co-head of Global Commodities Research, told clients on Tuesday that U.S. natural gas prices appear oversold and reaffirmed a bullish price forecast for the summer period, citing tightening market fundamentals. 

    "Upside to Sum25 Henry Hub from here. On net, we continue to see U.S. gas prices as oversold. With net long positions by managed money now more normalized and fundamentals tightening into peak summer as discussed above, we maintain our Bal Sum25 Henry Hub forecast of $3.90/mmBtu," Dart said. 

    Dart noted that NatGas production may remain elevated into the early summer months, longer than she previously anticipated, though she expects a decline to begin in June. She explained that the recent surge in output is primarily due to previously drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) and delayed turn-in-line wells (DTILs) now coming online, describing this as a temporary phenomenon: 

    The elevated U.S. natural gas production we flagged recently might last longer into this summer than we expect, but production will ultimately move lower. To be sure, we still expect lower Appalachia production sequentially, as a weather-driven decline in Northeast heating demand pressures local wellhead prices lower1 . However, production levels might ultimately remain above our expectations into early summer. To be clear, EQT commented last week during its earnings call that this surge in production has been largely due to wells that had been previously inventoried - as drilled but uncompleted (DUCs) or delayed turn-in-lines (DTILs) - but are now producing, which we think is consistent with a strong price incentive from 1Q25 Henry Hub having averaged in the high $3s/mmBtu, with local Appalachia prices not far behind. This suggests a one-off boost to local production, with heavy declines rates for the new wells likely setting in from June.

    In the Northeast, particularly in Appalachia, Dart said production will likely slide as weak local prices, driven mainly through reduced heating demand, put pressure on wellhead economics. She pointed out that U.S. power burns have recovered faster than modeled, with increased coal-to-gas switching:

    C2G starting to respond. At the same time, power burns have started to recover vs our modeled expectations, suggesting that utilities are likely increasing C2G switching following the drop in gas prices. The gas share of U.S. thermal generation has started to rise and is now at the highest level year to date at 70%.

    She pointed out that NatGas-fired generation now accounts for 70% of U.S. thermal generation, the highest level so far this year. 

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 06:55
  15. Site: southern orders
    4 weeks 1 day ago


    Everyone is having fun trying to guess who the next pope will be. We won’t know until that white smoke leads to an aging cardinal who comes out on the loggia of the Basilica and says, Habemus Papam. And his name is…..

    Some good things are being reported by way of rumor and wishful thinking, perhaps.

    One commentator says this which I think is a good thing as they would be more of Pope Benedict’s school of thought of inner healing, clear teachings, beautiful liturgies, beautiful papacy and orthodoxy:

    Prominent among these emeritus kingmakers are names like O'Malley, Ruini, Piacenza, Bagnasco, Cipriani, Antonelli, and Onaiyekan. They are there, talking to everyone, listening more than talking, and generating a kind of consensus that is not based on ideology, but on memory. They [the younger ones] are not looking for a new Pope with a program, but with solidity.

    The Jesuit rag, America, has stated, and with a little anxiety, no doubt, that the buzz words (code words) in the pre-conclave discussions are “clarity, confusion and unity.” Obviously, the former Pope Francis never provided true clarity, he sowed confusion and undermined unity.” All of these things are the antithesis of what the papacy should do.

    Even post-Catholic and Jesuit, Fr. James Martin, voices the concerns of those who want the LGBTQ+++ ideology enshrined in Catholic doctrine and practice. They are filled with anxiety that the next pope will reverse the processes towards a post-Catholic heretical new morality as it concerns sex and anything goes that the former Pope Francis initiated with loose talk and blessing same sex couples actively engaged in various forms of sodomy and other sexual disorders and gender dysphoria. Who is the Church to judge?

    And I am reading that Cardinal Parolin is still considered a front runner. I think he will be a calming influence in the Vatican and the Church and could bring some healing in terms of the chaos the former Pope Francis caused. 

    However, the Pillar reports this morning that a Chinese diocese has just named a new bishop while the Church has no pope to confirm it. 

    This is what Parolin caused. This has angered many Asian bishops and clergy and laity. Pope Francis approved of this kind of thing.

    So, I am not so sure Cardinal Parolin will be elected, but we’ll have to wait and see. 

  16. Site: southern orders
    4 weeks 1 day ago


    Everyone is having fun trying to guess who the next pope will be. We won’t know until that white smoke leads to an aging cardinal who comes out on the loggia of the Basilica and says, Habemus Papam. And his name is…..

    Some good things are being reported by way of rumor and wishful thinking, perhaps.

    One commentator says this which I think is a good thing as they would be more of Pope Benedict’s school of thought of inner healing, clear teachings, beautiful liturgies, beautiful papacy and orthodoxy:

    Prominent among these emeritus kingmakers are names like O'Malley, Ruini, Piacenza, Bagnasco, Cipriani, Antonelli, and Onaiyekan. They are there, talking to everyone, listening more than talking, and generating a kind of consensus that is not based on ideology, but on memory. They [the younger ones] are not looking for a new Pope with a program, but with solidity.

    The Jesuit rag, America, has stated, and with a little anxiety, no doubt, that the buzz words (code words) in the pre-conclave discussions are “clarity, confusion and unity.” Obviously, the former Pope Francis never provided true clarity, he sowed confusion and undermined unity.” All of these things are the antithesis of what the papacy should do.

    Even post-Catholic and Jesuit, Fr. James Martin, voices the concerns of those who want the LGBTQ+++ ideology enshrined in Catholic doctrine and practice. They are filled with anxiety that the next pope will reverse the processes towards a post-Catholic heretical new morality as it concerns sex and anything goes that the former Pope Francis initiated with loose talk and blessing same sex couples actively engaged in various forms of sodomy and other sexual disorders and gender dysphoria. Who is the Church to judge?

    And I am reading that Cardinal Parolin is still considered a front runner. I think he will be a calming influence in the Vatican and the Church and could bring some healing in terms of the chaos the former Pope Francis caused. 

    However, the Pillar reports this morning that a Chinese diocese has just named a new bishop while the Church has no pope to confirm it. 

    This is what Parolin caused. This has angered many Asian bishops and clergy and laity. Pope Francis approved of this kind of thing.

    So, I am not so sure Cardinal Parolin will be elected, but we’ll have to wait and see. 

  17. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Netanyahu's Wife Caught On Mic Saying 'Fewer' Than 24 Hostages Alive In Gaza

    It appears that Israel has intelligence which strongly suggests the majority of 59 hostages remaining in Gaza are dead. It has long been acknowledged that at least some of the captives are deceased, but the Israeli government has kept a tight lid on information it has on the numbers.

    And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s wife Sara has unleashed new controversy, heightening tensions and outrage from victims' families. She was heard on a hot mic at an event on Monday saying that "fewer" than 24 hostages are still alive in Gaza.

    via Flash90

    It's unclear whether she intended to be heard by the audience at a moment her husband, PM Benjamin Netanyahu was speaking, but she muttered something key and it was picked up by the microphone.

    Below is CNN's account of what happened and what was said:

    "We have of course an important task, not only to win but also to bring home (the hostages)," Netanyahu said at a meeting with Israeli holiday torchbearers on Monday. "Until today we have returned 196 of our hostages, 147 of whom were alive. There are… up to 24 living. Up to 24 living."

    "Fewer," Sara Netanyahu interrupted quietly, seated to her husband’s right.

    "I say up to," Netanyahu quickly responded. "And the rest are, I’m sorry to say, not alive. And we will return them."

    Lately Israeli officials have issued alarm, saying they believe more hostages may be in danger of dying as the conflict drags on. Ceasefire negotiations with Hamas have been collapsed and nonexistent for months at this point.

    Victims' families and anti-Netanyahu protesters have demanded the resumption of the truce deal, in order to see the remaining captives released. The Netanyahu government has instead opted for a military solution.

    "On the eve of Memorial Day, you sowed indescribable panic in the hearts of the families of the hostages – families already living in agonizing uncertainty," the Hostages and Missing Families Forum said in a statement, blasting Israeli leadership.

    "If there is intelligence or new information regarding the condition of our loved ones, we demand full disclosure," the group said, and urged that if the prime minister's wife has new information she should make it known immediately.

    "If the wife of the prime minister has new information about the kidnapped who were killed, I demand from her to know if my Matan is still alive, or if he was murdered in captivity because your husband refuses to finish the war," Einav Zangauker, the mother of one of the hostages, also said on social media, as quoted in CNN.

    Israel's military has vowed to eradicate Hamas, but that's easier said than done given the vast tunnel network of the terror group remains in place. It's also believed there are still tens of thousands of Hamas fighters.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 05:45
  18. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Decoding Baby Formula: How U.S. And European Standards Compare

    Authored by Jennifer Sweenie via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    From the moment Jess’s infant son transitioned from breastfeeding to baby formula, feeding became a source of distress—for both mom and baby. Every bottle of any U.S.-made brand seemed to trigger a bout of vomiting, his tiny body rejecting each feeding. Jess took to doing her research, and against her doctor’s guidance, made the switch to a European-made formula. The vomiting stopped with the swap, granting a sliver of respite for both baby and mom.

    New Africa/Shutterstock

    My pediatrician told me that I was ‘endangering’ him by using a European formula that wasn’t FDA approved,” Jess Davidoff told The Epoch Times.

    However, as Jess discovered, her pediatrician’s warning didn’t quite align with reality. The debate over what makes a “good” infant formula is intensifying as American parents increasingly turn to European brands. Interest in overseas products isn’t just about preference—it also highlights significant disparities in regulatory standards, differences in essential fats, controversial carbohydrates, and how transparently formulas are labeled. Understanding these differences empowers parents to make informed choices for their children and supports the health and development of American infants.

    ‘Good’ Formula

    Choosing the best formula requires understanding labels and ingredients, regardless of its country of origin. Several critical factors come into play:

    Essential Nutrients

    Infant formula serves as the primary source of nutrition for many babies during their first year, making its composition essential for healthy development. Key nutrients found in breast milk to look for in formula include:

    DHA and ARA: These long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids are essential for brain and eye development. European regulations have historically mandated minimum levels of DHA in infant formula, whereas the amounts in U.S. varieties may vary and, on average, are much lower than what Europe requires.

    Prebiotics and Probiotics: Gut health is vital for babies’ digestion, immunity, and even brain development. Regulations regarding the inclusion of prebiotics and probiotics, and the specific strains and amounts, can vary between the United States and Europe. European standards often impose stricter guidelines.

    Vitamins and Minerals: Both the FDA and European authorities set minimum, and sometimes maximum, levels for micronutrients in infant formula to ensure babies receive adequate nutrition. However, the specific requirements for certain vitamins and minerals can differ. A 2023 study published in Nutrients found that the average iron level in U.S. formulas is higher than what Europe allows. Almost 96 percent of the formulas tested in the United States exceeded the European iron limit.

    Quality

    Ingredient quality and how they are processed can impact the overall nutritional value and potential health effects of infant formula.

    Organic formulas, made with milk from cows raised without hormones or routine antibiotics and fed organic feed, are more prevalent and strictly regulated in Europe. European organic formulas are also more likely to be made from grass-fed cows and contain probiotics.

    The organic market in the United States is growing, but conventional formulas produced from cows raised according to standard agricultural practices still dominate.

    Processing methods can affect the bioavailability of nutrients, such as milk proteins and calcium. Some newer processing methods aim to preserve more heat-sensitive nutrients. While both U.S. and European manufacturers follow safety standards, the specific techniques they use might vary.

    Additives, such as emulsifiers, stabilizers, and preservatives, are common in formula, but the types and amounts allowed are more restricted in Europe. Some ingredients found in U.S. formulas might be restricted or banned in Europe due to potential health concerns, including exposure to antibiotics and pesticides.

    Macronutrient Content

    When it comes to macronutrients, lactose is the primary carbohydrate used in both regions to mimic breast milk. It is generally well digested by infants and supports the growth of beneficial gut bacteria. However, European standard formulas almost exclusively use lactose, while U.S. formulas use corn syrup solids, which may affect blood sugar, weight gain, and gut health. Due to these concerns, European regulatory bodies tend to be more cautious than the United States about allowing corn syrup solids in standard infant formulas.

    As for Jess’s son, who regurgitated his formula, it turned out he had a severe corn allergy and was reacting to the corn syrup solids in the U.S. formula.

    According to Dr. Michelle Perro, an integrative pediatrician with more than four decades of experience, the corn syrup solids are highly processed, but there may still be residual corn protein in the formula. She told The Epoch Times that producing corn syrup involves extensive processing, which, in her view, may contribute to health issues in some children.

    We are seeing an explosion of food sensitivities, intolerances, and allergies—it is off the charts,” said Perro.

    Jess’s son’s corn allergy manifested with multiple concerning symptoms, including thinning hair and nails, vomiting, eczema, and hernias—one of which required surgery. Thirty-two doctors dismissed her concerns about a food-related cause, but her mother’s intuition prevailed. She meticulously tracked his food until the culprit revealed itself—all stemming from the introduction of U.S.-based formula containing corn.

    “The sugar used has to change. We [the United States] cannot use the synthetic corn syrup derived from GMO corn,” Perro said.

    Both European and U.S. formulas typically use a blend of vegetable oils to mimic the fatty acid profile of breast milk. Common oils include palm oil, soy oil, coconut oil, and sunflower oil. European formulas often highlight the inclusion of medium-chain triglycerides, which are easily digestible and provide a quick source of energy. There may also be a greater emphasis on the quality and processing of these oils compared with U.S. standards.

    Proteins in formula—usually cow’s milk—aim to match breast milk’s whey-to-casein ratio, often more closely in European formulas than U.S. varieties. Both markets offer formulas with partially or extensively broken down hydrolyzed proteins. Additionally, both the United States and Europe offer formulas made with goat’s milk or soy protein for infants with specific dietary needs. Regulations regarding these alternative protein sources and the extent of processing may differ by region.

    Ultimately, transparent labeling is essential for parents making informed choices about infant formula ingredients and nutrient content. European standards often provide more detailed information about ingredient sources and the specific types and amounts of certain components, such as prebiotics and probiotics.

    Heavy Metals Are a Concern

    Heavy metals can be present in baby formula in the United States and Europe. The European Union generally has stricter limits on heavy metals and contaminants in baby formula than the United States, and continuously updates its regulations to reduce allowable levels. The stricter regulations on heavy metals are a major reason some parents prefer European formulas.

    The FDA does not currently require manufacturers to routinely test infant formula for heavy metals. Instead, it has a “Closer to Zero“ initiative that aims to gradually reduce the amount of harmful metals babies and children are exposed to in food. The initiative focuses on conducting research, setting guidelines for the food industry, and monitoring progress over time

    Perro referenced the FDA’s Total Diet Study, a program that’s been running since the 1960s and initially focused on measuring radioactivity in food. The study, conducted periodically, monitors the safety and nutritional quality of the U.S. food supply. In its most recent publication, released in 2022, the Total Diet Study analyzed approximately 910 foods to assess contaminant levels. Of the 910 foods, four were infant formulas—and two of those contained toxic metals, including uranium. Despite these findings, Perro said, no public recalls or follow-up investigations were announced, raising concerns about regulatory oversight.

    To think that the FDA is protecting us is a stretch,” she noted, voicing frustration over what she sees as inadequate action regarding contamination in infant formula

    Perro suggested that potential sources of toxic metals could include cow feed, processing methods, and environmental factors such as geoengineering—large-scale climate interventions like solar radiation management. While further research is needed to pinpoint the source in the U.S. formula manufacturing system, the presence of these metals is alarming due to the potential health effects.

    Heavy metals found in infant formula and their effects include:

    Lead: Per the FDA, there is no known safe level of exposure to lead. It poses the greatest risk during brain development and can cause neurological impairments, including learning and behavioral difficulties, and lower IQ.

    Mercury: Mercury exposure during active brain development may cause reduced intelligence, memory and cognitive problems, and motor skill difficulties. Emerging evidence also suggests attention may be affected, according to the FDA.

    Arsenic: The FDA links arsenic exposure with adverse neurological effects such as learning disabilities, behavioral difficulties, and reduced IQ. Fetuses, infants, and children are especially vulnerable because of their smaller bodies and rapid development.

    Cadmium: Because the body eliminates cadmium slowly, long-term exposure can weaken bones and may contribute to kidney and reproductive problems, heart disease, and diabetes, according to the FDA.

    A 2024 meta-analysis published in Science of the Total Environment concluded that cadmium exposure is strongly associated with an increased risk of developing chronic kidney disease. Researchers reviewed 31 studies and found that even small amounts of cadmium exposure pose a long-term concern due to its persistence in the body.

    Perrro said one of the most troubling effects of heavy metal exposure in infants is its effect on gut health and the subsequent lifelong repercussions.

    She explained that toxic metals can disrupt the microbiome, potentially preventing babies from developing a healthy innate immune response. According to Perro, this kind of gut disruption could set the stage for conditions such as eczema, gut-induced asthma, autoimmune disorders, and food allergies, possibly setting the stage for additional health challenges later in life.

    She also emphasized the neurological effects of toxic metals, which she believes may play a role in the development of neurodevelopmental conditions such as autism spectrum disorder, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, sensory processing disorders, sleep disturbances, and other behavioral challenges. Additionally, Perro expressed concern about possible metabolic disruptions and the long-term risk of kidney disease, particularly from cadmium exposure.

    “Whatever happens to baby is setting up that baby for their immunologic well-being for the rest of their lives,” she said.

    Read the rest here...

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 05:00
  19. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    "The World Is Witnessing A Revolution Of Common Sense" - Trump's (Second) First 100 Days

    At the beginning of his remarks tonight, celebrating his (second) first 100 days, President Trump proclaimed that "the world is witnessing a revolution of common sense."

    "In the first 100 days, we have delivered the most profound change in this country in 100 years," Trump commented, highlighting that "we are ushering in the golden age of America."

    "Nothing will stop my mission to keep American safe again." Trump stated, pointing out the impact of the judiciary on his orders: "judges are trying to take away presidential power... I hope the Supreme Court will save this."

    With regard to tariffs, Trump said that "we have been abused by friend and foe on trade."

    "India, France, and China officials are coming to make a deal," said Trump, adding that he is offering automakers some "flexibility".

    Watch President Trump's full remarks here...

    Upon returning to the White House, President Donald Trump unleashed a wave of executive orders and aggressive policy shifts, making his first 100 days of his second term one of the most impactful starts to a presidency in recent memory.

    Now serving as the 47th president, Trump has resumed many of the core initiatives from his previous administration -initiatives he says were obstructed by the Russia probe, civil unrest tied to Black Lives Matter protests, and the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    With renewed urgency, Trump has zeroed in on the cornerstone issues of his “Make America Great Again” platform: securing the southern border, confronting China’s trade abuses, and boosting American energy independence.

    And or course, the highly controversial tariffs that sent investors on a round-trip rollercoaster from hell this month.

    Trump has already surpassed President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s historic mark of 99 executive orders within the first 100 days, a sign of his determination to reshape federal policy without waiting for Congress.

    Which were of course met with a flood of legal challenges in front of left-wing judges...

    Nearly all of the legal challenges are working their way through the courts. Some of the president’s actions have been blocked or allowed temporarily pending further court action. The court allowed the deferred resignation, or voluntary departure plan, by the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, to continue. Harvard University’s legal challenge to the administration’s funding freeze over anti-semitism and removal of diversity, equity, and inclusion programs has yet to be heard by the court. -Epoch Times

    Backers view Trump’s opening stretch as a return to American assertiveness, while critics argue it reflects executive overreach and instability.

    Eager to seize the early momentum, Trump has pushed forward rapidly on both international and domestic priorities, knowing the political clock is already ticking.

    As his administration hits the 100-day mark, here is a breakdown of the major actions taken so far by the Epoch Times.

    Economic Indicators: Up, Down

    Economic indicators mostly improved through March, the last month for which complete data is available. Nonfarm job creation nearly doubled since Trump took office, although the unemployment rate rose 0.2 percent.

    Inflation declined by 0.5 percent, reaching 2.8 percent, its lowest level since February 2021.

    Trump’s tariff strategy, launched on April 2, which he called “Liberation Day,” appeared to cause uncertainty among investors, which could affect economic indicators for April.

    The president said his tariff strategy is to reverse the trade imbalance between the United States and other nations by levying reciprocal tariffs on their goods coming into this country. The tariffs will also encourage manufacturers to create products in the United States, according to Trump.

    The Standard and Poor’s 500, an index that tracks the performance of leading companies, dropped steeply in the days following the tariff announcement. Prices rallied on April 8, the day after Trump announced a pause in many of the tariffs.

    Manufacturing Build-Back: $1.75 Trillion

    More than a dozen domestic and foreign manufacturers have announced large investments in their U.S. operations since Trump took office.

    In at least one case, Trump’s tariff policy played a part in the decision to invest here. Honda is expected to manufacture its next-generation Civic hybrid in Indiana rather than Mexico.

    Nissan and Hyundai are expected to move some manufacturing facilities to the United States as well, according to the White House.

    Those investments include more than $1 trillion from tech giants Nvidia, Apple, Oracle, and others. Merck, the German pharmaceutical company, opened a $1 billion manufacturing facility in North Carolina this year.

    Multinational automaker Stellantis announced a $5 billion investment in its U.S. manufacturing sites.

    Illegal Border Crossings: 90 Percent Reduction in 40 Days

    Trump’s early actions on border security included a national emergency declaration, invoking the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to combat speed deportation, and directing the military to augment security at the nation’s borders.

    Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) began increased deportation operations targeting criminal illegal immigrants on Jan. 21. Immigration officials reported 32,800 arrests in the first three weeks of the Trump administration, about 73 percent of whom were illegal immigrants with a criminal charge or conviction.

    ICE made 113,400 total immigration arrests during the last fiscal year of the Biden administration, according to the agency’s records.

    Customs and Border Protection reported a nearly 90 percent drop in illegal immigrant apprehensions at the southern border between December 2024, the last full month before Trump took office, and March.

    Taxpayer Savings: $1.6 Billion per Day

    Trump created the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, on Jan. 20. Headed by tech entrepreneur Elon Musk, DOGE took rapid action to reduce government spending with the goal of reaching $1 trillion in cost savings.

    Immediate targets included tax-payer funded programs related to gender ideology and diversity, equity, and inclusion. DOGE also targeted waste, such as leases on unoccupied buildings.

    Agency heads have reduced spending to save Americans about $160 billion in 100 days, or nearly $1,000 per taxpayer, according to DOGE.

    Trump offered a Deferred Resignation Program, which allowed federal employees to voluntarily resign and retain salary and benefits until Sept. 30, the end of the fiscal year. About 77,000 of the more than 3 million federal employees opted into the program.

    Other staff reductions have eliminated about 66,000 positions, nearly all of which were retirements or voluntary transitions, according to DOGE.

    Three other recent presidents made significant staffing reductions during their first 100 days, as did Trump during his first term.

    Now let's see what happens in May with all this port FUD and talk of empty shelves...

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 04:40
  20. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Amazon's Kuiper Enters Orbit - Trailing SpaceX's Starlink By Years

    Amazon's Kuiper officially entered the space communications race on Monday evening, with its first 27 satellites launched into orbit aboard a United Launch Alliance (ULA) Atlas V rocket from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida.

    These satellites will deliver high-speed, low-latency broadband internet to customers worldwide and form the foundation of a much larger planned constellation of 3,200 satellites in low Earth orbit, expected to be rolled out in the coming years.

    Nominal start to our KA-01 mission. We’ve already established contact with all 27 Kuiper satellites in orbit, and initial deployment and activation sequences are proceeding as planned. Thanks to @ULAlaunch for a successful launch – the first of many missions together. pic.twitter.com/XyG0UCgjuX

    — Project Kuiper (@ProjectKuiper) April 29, 2025

    Monday's milestone marks a long-awaited step for Jeff Bezos' Kuiper, which now enters the race six years behind Elon Musk's Starlink, operated by SpaceX.

    Notably, it wasn't Blue Origin—Bezos' rocket company—that launched the 27 satellites. Instead, it was ULA doing the heavy lifting, while Blue Origin's New Shepard rocket has so far been better known for celebrity suborbital joyrides than serious work. 

    US Gov't: Katy Perry "Doesn't Meet FAA Astronaut Criteria" https://t.co/vDzQkCOJEI

    — zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 19, 2025

    Meanwhile, SpaceX has already launched over 8,000 Starlink satellites into orbit and offers service in more than 125 countries. With more than 5 million users worldwide, Starlink remains the dominant player in the global space-based communications market.

    SpaceX's space dominance has turned Goldman analysts into believers. Earlier this year, analysts provided clients with a list of Starlink's suppliers to capitalize on, as tens of thousands of these satellites will be catapulted into low Earth orbit by the decade's end. 

    Goldman Turns Bullish On Starlink Satellite Parts Supplier As Space Race Accelerates https://t.co/GyooFrcg0x

    — zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 18, 2025

    Just last night...

    Falcon 9 launches back-to-back @Starlink missions from California and Florida and completes our 50th mission of 2025! pic.twitter.com/t2tYvM6ctD

    — SpaceX (@SpaceX) April 29, 2025

    Democrats have waged war against the guy who is catching skyscraper-sized rocket boosters. 

    Super Heavy catch on Starship's eighth flight test pic.twitter.com/oC80r7CZ4L

    — SpaceX (@SpaceX) March 8, 2025

    Talk about efficiency: 

    Summary:
    Over $250B spent with no new domestic human launch system until SpaceX delivered one.
    Meanwhile, SpaceX built Falcon 1, Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Dragon, and Starship — all for less than 3% of NASA’s total spend. pic.twitter.com/rraK1yPccX

    — Sam (@futurenomics) April 22, 2025

    Bezos uses Starlink terminals on his very own yacht. 

    The hope is that competition will innovate the space communications race, yet Starlink doesn't really have strong competitors - not Bezos, not China, not Russia. Just wait until SpaceX's mega-rocket begins launching Starlink satellites.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 04:15
  21. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Geoengineers Want Boeing 777s To Dump Sulfur Into The Sky, Risking Acid Rain Catastrophe: Study

    Via JonFleetwood.com,

    Scientists are proposing to modify Boeing 777 aircraft to spray sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere in an attempt to cool the Earth in the name of debunked, so-called “climate change”—despite fully acknowledging the serious risk of acid rain and other environmental disasters.

    A new study published today in Earth’s Future openly admits that this method, called stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), would sharply increase dangerous side effects like acid rain because it requires “three times more” aerosol to achieve the same cooling effect compared to previous high-altitude schemes.

    “However, this low‐altitude strategy requires three times more injection than high‐altitude SAI, and so would strongly increase side‐effects such as acid rain,” the study’s authors warn​.

    Rather than developing new, specially-designed aircraft to reach the ideal 65,000 feet altitude, researchers from University College London and Yale now propose dumping sulfur at just 42,000 feet—within the existing capabilities of modified 777s​.

    The ironic catch?

    At lower altitudes, sulfur particles would rain out of the sky much faster—meaning a massive increase in the amount of pollutant dumped into the atmosphere.

    Instead of solving anything, their plan could flood the atmosphere with even more toxic material, accelerating the very environmental destruction they claim to be fighting.

    The study projects injecting 12 million metric tons of sulfur dioxide per year​—comparable to the volume released by the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991, which famously cooled the planet temporarily but also triggered severe acid rain​.

    In fact, the researchers admit outright that this new strategy would mean “a proportionate increase in the side-effects of SAI per unit cooling, such as human exposure to descending particulate matter.”

    The new proposal to retrofit Boeing 777s to spray sulfur mirrors the large-scale atmospheric modification that anti-geoengineering expert Jim Lee shows is already being carried out daily through commercial aviation’s sulfur-doped emissions.​

    A Blueprint for Accelerated Environmental Collapse?

    Billed as a “shortcut” because it could use existing jets instead of waiting a decade for new aircraft, the UCL-Yale plan effectively opens the floodgates for rapid, poorly regulated deployment.

    The study concedes this alarming possibility, saying:

    “This could imply an increase in the number of actors able to deploy SAI, an earlier potential start date, and perhaps a greater risk of unilateral deployment.”​

    Translation: Anyone with a modified fleet of cargo planes could start spraying the skies without global oversight.

    This echoes warnings from our past reporting: geoengineering is being normalized as an “emergency solution”—without serious consideration of the unintended, irreversible damage it could unleash on ecosystems, agriculture, and human health.

    Acid rain, after all, devastates forests, poisons waterways, and corrodes infrastructure.

    Even the authors admit that injecting sulfur at lower altitudes would be “a sub-optimal SAI deployment, with strongly increased side-effects, reduced cooling efficiency, and a more polar cooling profile.”

    Yet despite these known dangers, the plan is moving forward—with government agencies like Britain’s Aria already preparing field experiments​.

    Global Weather Control by Cargo Plane

    This is the continuation of a pattern we’ve exposed before: global elites quietly pushing militarized weather control schemes under the cover of “climate crisis” narratives.

    First it was experiments on cloud seeding, now it’s mass-scale sulfur dumping using commercial airliners.

    “Our results suggest that a deployment of low‐altitude, high‐latitude SAI could halt the increase in global mean temperature under current warming rates by redirecting a small fraction of the production of existing large jets (~2 new jets per year),” the researchers wrote​.

    In other words, they are planning for a future where the skies are permanently hazed with chemical aerosols, maintained by a growing fleet of retrofitted jets.

    Once this kind of geoengineering begins, it can’t be easily stopped.

    The sudden cessation of sulfur injection could trigger abrupt, catastrophic warming—known in scientific literature as the “termination shock.”

    This isn’t a solution.

    It’s engineering dependence on a dangerous, destructive atmospheric intervention.

    The Bottom Line

    Geoengineers are openly admitting that they want to retrofit Boeing 777s to spew toxic sulfur dioxide into the skyrisk widespread acid rain, and destabilize the global climate—all to patch over the failures of industrial policy.

    If the public doesn’t push back, the same establishment that wrecked the environment with reckless industrialization will now finish the job under the guise of “saving” it.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 03:30
  22. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Watch: First Video Showing Russian Instructors Training North Korean Troops

    With the full liberation of Kursk having been declared by President Putin days ago, both Moscow and its recent defense treaty partner North Korea are much more openly touting the fact that North Korean troops are operating alongside Russian forces against the Ukrainian army.

    For the first time, Russia’s Defense Ministry has released official footage showing North Korean soldiers undergoing combat training in Russia. The video was reportedly captured soon after reports began circulating that over 10,000 DPRK troops had been deployed to Russia, where they later fought in Kursk region in particular.

    Via TASS

    In the footage, Russian instructors teach the North Korean soldiers in shooting techniques and formations with Kalashnikov assault rifles. Anti-drone measures are also featured, as well as hand grenade training. Several live-fire exercises are featured, including firing RPGs and some sniper training.

    Russia did not comment on precisely where the training took place, but it confirms that the terms of the Russian-North Korean mutual defense treaty - inked last summer between Presidents Putin and Kim Jong-Un, had been enacted fairly quickly once Ukraine forces crossed the border and entered Kursk.

    The latest international reports have said 14,000 or more North Korean soldiers were sent to Russia amid the Kursk operation. The bulk of these are said to be from special forces units. Putin thanked them and Kim Jong-Un this week, in a first such public acknowledgement.

    Ukraine is meanwhile urging Washington to take more serious action in light of this confirmation, and is also calling on South Korea, per regional media:

    "If the Kremlin sends North Korean troops to the territory of Ukraine it would mean that North Korea is in a state of all out war with Ukraine," Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the parliament's foreign affairs committee, told the Kyiv Independent.

    The lawmaker from the ruling Servant of the People explained that such a deployment would cause "serious legal, political, and military consequences for Russia and North Korea," prompting a stronger reaction from countries such as South Korea and the U.S.

    "(Russian President Vladimir) Putin understands that if he does it (U.S. President Donald) Trump will have to react rather strongly," Merezhko said.

    Watch: video issued by Russian military showing training of DPRK troops at a prior date:

    “We won’t invade Ukraine.”
    “No North Koreans are fighting for Russia.”
    “We want peace talks with Ukraine.”

    How many times does the West need to hear Russia lie before it finally learns? pic.twitter.com/a8spASlnLl

    — Shaun Pinner (@olddog100ua) April 28, 2025

    Ukraine had reportedly breached the Russian border in Belgorod too, so it's possible North Korean troops might be deployed that region as well. Whether or not they are actually inside Eastern Ukraine is an open question.

    As for North Korea's Kim, KCNA quoted him Monday as saying, "They who fought for justice are all heroes and representatives of the honor of the motherland." North Korea "regards it as an honor to have an alliance with such a powerful state as the Russian Federation," he added. Ukraine has claimed to have captured a handful of both North Korean and even Chinese troops over the past month.

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 02:45
  23. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Only 1 In 8 Afghan Refugees Entering Germany Was Properly Screened

    Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

    Only one in eight Afghans who entered Germany through special protection programs, such as for local staff and human rights activists, was fully vetted by German security authorities beforehand, according to a new report from Bild.

    Over 31,000 Afghans, including family members, reportedly arrived without complete security checks, the report claims, revealing major security lapses in Germany’s handling of the Afghan admission program.

    The federal government has been importing Afghan migrants from its reception center in Pakistan’s capital of Islamabad since the return to power of the Taliban, insisting those being received were former collaborators with the German army against the new regime.

    However, in reality, only a fraction of those on board these flights met these criteria as former Bundeswehr employees or their family members.

    Last month, Remix News reported on a chartered flight carrying 157 Afghan nationals, of which just two individuals were former collaborators, along with 13 of their relatives.

    The remaining 142 individuals have been selected under broader humanitarian programs, such as the Federal Admission Program (BAP), which prioritizes Afghans identified as at risk due to their “commitment to democratic values.”

    Germany’s federal police union (DPolG) has long called for the suspension of Afghan refugee flights from Pakistan, citing security risks and identity verification issues among those on board. Last month, the union penned a letter to outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz urging an immediate halt.

    “The current procedure, in which, despite the identity not being determined without any doubt, travel ID cards are issued for foreigners, is highly risky and irresponsible,” said DPolG federal president Heiko Teggatz.

    “Against the background of the currently highly tense security situation in relation to Islamist terrorism, I think such a procedure is unacceptable,” he added.

    The lax security measures have sparked outrage among police officials and politicians. There are now loud calls for the establishment of a special asylum task force (“Soko Asyl”) to re-examine all cases and, if necessary, deport individuals who do not pass renewed security screenings.

    “All Afghans who have not undergone a full security check must either be transferred back to Islamabad or deported to Afghanistan, unless they can definitively verify their identity on-site with official documents and pass a security screening,” Federal Police Union Vice President Manuel Ostermann told the German tabloid. “A complete re-examination of the cases is essential.”

    Several CDU/CSU politicians, whose parties will dominate the incoming coalition government in Berlin, have demanded action.

    “What is now coming to light is inconceivable. At a time when Germany is burdened by migration pressures and rising violent crimes by individual asylum seekers, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock showed no awareness of Germany’s security needs,” noted Hesse’s Minister for International Affairs Manfred Pentz. “Her approach was amateurish, ideological, and a threat to national security.”

    “The governing coalition is responsible for these frightening security risks. The Afghan admission programs must be terminated immediately,” said Alexander Hoffmann, parliamentary manager of the CSU in the Bundestag.

    “This must not be repeated. Germany’s security interests must always come first,” added CDU MP Christoph de Vries in a stark warning to chancellor-to-be Friedrich Merz, who vowed to tackle the immigration crisis in Germany but whose coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) has raised questions about his commitment.

    Read more here...

    Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 02:00
  24. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Trump Allies Say 'Mossad Agents' & 'Warmongers' Trying To Derail Iran Talks

    Via Middle East Eye

    "Mossad agents" and "warmongers" are pushing the US into a conflict with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Those lines aren’t coming from state-run news agencies in Tehran, but some of US President Donald Trump’s closest media allies and supporters

    Last week, conservative talk show host Tucker Carlson featured a senior Department of Defense official who he claimed was ousted because he was seen as an obstacle to the US bombing Iran.

    Dan Caldwell, a top advisor to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, was removed from the Pentagon earlier this month on charges that he allegedly leaked classified information about Hegseth’s use of a Signal chat, according to several media outlets.

    Getty Images via AFP

    Not so by Carlson’s telling, who has unparalleled access to Trump. "You did make maybe one career mistake by giving on-the-record interviews describing your foreign policy views…that are out of the mainstream among warmongers in Washington," Carlson said to Caldwell, adding, "Then I read all of a sudden that you are a traitor."

    On Sunday, another conservative podcaster, Clayton Morris, a former Fox News anchor, said pro-Israel voices were "working overtime" to destroy the "anti-war team" that Trump has assembled at the Pentagon.

    "We’ve learned here at Redacted that former Israeli Mossad agents are working overtime on social media and behind the scenes trying to discredit Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth," Morris said, referring to his show. He didn't name the so-called former agents. 

    Trump’s administration is divided between more traditional Republicans like US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and national security advisor Mike Waltz, and "America First" isolationists like White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.

    Some of Trump’s most vocal defenders in the media, who exercise unprecedented influence in communicating his worldview, are media figures like Carlson and former advisor Steve Bannon.

    The firing of Caldwell and two other senior Pentagon officials appears to have energized America First anti-interventionists. Their slamming of the pro-Israel voices and former Mossad agents is unprecedented within the Republican Party. It reflects just how far Trump has taken the party from its traditionally hawkish worldview. 

    Pro-Trump media personalities have singled out Merav Ceren, who was nominated to head Iran and Israel at the White House National Security Council, for criticism. 

    Ceren was born in Haifa, Israel, and worked in the Israeli Ministry of Defense. On his show, Morris, who co-hosted a Fox morning news show with Hegseth, said that, "Neo-con Mike Waltz has now hired basically a dual citizen and former IDF official to work under him."

    The coverage reflects a growing trend in the US to view Israel with skepticism, which has intensified since the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attacks on southern Israel, which sparked the Israeli invasion of Gaza and a simmering Middle East war. 

    According to a Pew Poll published in April, 53 percent of Americans now express an unfavorable opinion of Israel, up from 42 percent in March 2022. The shift in negative sentiment has been notable among young Republicans under 50, who are more likely to tune into podcasts like Morris’s Redacted and Carlson’s show.

    Dan Caldwell, a top advisor to Defense Chief Pete Hegseth, was escorted out of the Pentagon after being named in a Department of Defense leaks investigation.

    Caldwell didn’t toe the usual line on foreign policy. He openly challenged the Washington consensus on Israel, saying the… pic.twitter.com/O2ZoVSNmXd

    — Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) April 15, 2025

    The criticism comes as Trump tries to square his muscular foreign policy instincts with his pledge to refrain from starting new Middle East wars. On Iran, Trump's closest envoys have been left contradicting themselves

    Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy who has emerged as his go-to global troubleshooter, suggested earlier this month that Washington would allow Iran to enrich uranium at low levels. After backlash from pro-Israel voices, he flipped, saying that Tehran “must stop and eliminate” its nuclear enrichment program fully.

    This week, Secretary Rubio said the US could re-enter a deal that sees Iran keep a civilian nuclear programme - so long as it halts enrichment, and instead ships it in from abroad. 

    American and Iranian technical teams met in Oman on Saturday for their third round of talks. Trump told reporters on Monday that the talks are going "very well" and that "a deal is going to be made there". "We’ll have something without having to start dropping bombs all over the place," he said.

    Tyler Durden Tue, 04/29/2025 - 23:25
  25. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    CIA "Can Neither Confirm Nor Deny" Whether Secret Virginia Site Is Theirs

    A low-profile government complex in northern Virginia - long rumored to be a CIA spook site - briefly appeared on a federal real estate for-sale list last month, only to disappear from the market within hours, in a mysterious vanishing act worthy of a spy novel.

    The Parr-Franconia warehouse complex from a General Services Administration report in 2015.Source: General Services Administration

    The nondescript Parr-Franconia warehouse complex, tucked just off I-95 a few miles from the Pentagon, popped up on a Trump administration list of “non-core” federal properties slated for potential sale, Bloomberg reports, noting that the list was yanked down less than 24 hours later - including more than 400 other buildings and offices, some housing cabinet-level agencies.

    But it was the Springfield cluster that raised eyebrows — 14 buildings, some going by names like “Franconia Building B” and “Butler Building 12,” which don’t appear on any other public database of government real estate.

    The CIA's official response? A non-denial denial.

    The CIA can neither confirm nor deny the existence or nonexistence” of records related to the proposed sale, the agency said Monday in a response to a Freedom of Information Act request filed by Bloomberg News - deploying its classic "Glomar" language, coined during a Cold War submarine recovery op in 1974.

    That’s spy-speak for: Don’t ask us - we’re not telling.

    The site, which dates to 1952, has been the subject of decades of local speculation. Foreign Policy once identified it as a heavily guarded compound used to store “classified files, equipment, and supplies.” Marc Ambinder of The Week called it “perhaps the worst-kept secret in Springfield,” where neighbors talk openly about the strange security measures and rotating surveillance.

    "It’s been identified in numerous public forums. The bad guys know it exists; the CIA and the Air Force often assign counter-surveillance teams to the area," wrote Armbinder.

    Even Fairfax County assigns a hefty valuation: the 1.2 million-square-foot property is tax-exempt but carries an appraisal of over $115 million.

    The Trump administration has made waves with its effort to trim the government’s bloated real estate portfolio, but this listing — along with the headquarters of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, which Secretary Scott Turner famously slammed as “the ugliest building in DC” — may have gone a step too far.

    In the end, the administration backtracked on all 443 proposed sales, citing a need for further review. But the sudden appearance of a shadowy Springfield site, potentially connected to U.S. intelligence, suggests someone in the bureaucracy might’ve hit "publish" without reading the fine print — or the classification stamps.

    Neither the CIA nor the General Services Administration will say more — not even to confirm the property exists. Which, in the world of cloak-and-dagger real estate, probably says everything.

    Tyler Durden Tue, 04/29/2025 - 18:50
  26. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    "We Are Refilling The Reserve Now": Energy Secretary Wright Confirms SPR Refill After Biden's Reckless Drain

    The effort to refill America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, depleted under President Biden in 2022, is progressing slowly under the Trump administration, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a CNBC interview this week.

    "We are refilling the reserve now, and we will continue to refill the reserve the whole time I'm in office," Wright stated, warning it could take years. He criticized Biden’s decision to release oil from the SPR as "such an irresponsible action to drain that reserve so quickly for electoral reasons."

    The Biden administration authorized a historic sale of 180 million barrels over six months to fight surging gasoline prices and inflation, and in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to Newsmax.

    Wright added that the rapid drawdown damaged infrastructure: "It was drained so fast, it did some damage to the facilities. And so, right now, we only can fill two of the four major salt caverns we have, so we are doing repair work on the other two." He said he’s pushing for more funding to speed up the repairs and refill effort.

    Recall back in March we noted that Wright told Bloomberg in an interview that the Energy Department was preparing to purchase $20 billion worth of crude oil as the first step in refilling the nation's depleted SPR to a sufficient level.

    At the time, he said the initiative, which may take years, would restore holdings "just close to the top." 

    The initiative, which may take years, would restore holdings "just close to the top" to maintain efficient operating status, Wright said in an interview on Thursday in Louisiana after touring a natural-gas export plant. Trump said he planned replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve during his inaugural address in January, part of a broad embrace of conventional energy that's also included pledges to boost domestic oil production and roll back regulation. The storage facility — the largest of its kind — is meant to provide a cushion to guard against crude supply disruptions. "Ultimately, that's what it was built for — to have the maximum security for the American people," Wright said. -BBG 

    Currently trading at approximately $61 per barrel, WTI has decreased by about 13.76% since the beginning of the year and the re-escalation of trade disputes, particularly between the U.S. and China, has dampened global economic outlooks, leading to reduced demand projections for oil

    Recall, under Biden's first term, the reckless administration dangerously drained the SPR from around 650 million barrels to about 395 million. 

    Bloomberg noted back in March: "Congress will need to approve funding to refill the system, which isn't guaranteed. Energy Department funds for purchases ran out after the Biden administration bought about 60 million barrels."

    Tyler Durden Tue, 04/29/2025 - 15:00
  27. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Trump Order Strips Funding From Sanctuary Cities Engaged In 'Insurrection'

    Authored by Bethany Blankley via The Center Square,

    President Donald Trump issued an executive order on Monday to enhance national security and enforce federal immigration and criminal law in so-called sanctuary jurisdictions and take a range of actions against those obstructing enforcement, including eliminating their federal funding.

    Trump’s “Protecting American Communities from Criminal Aliens” executive order directs the departments of Justice and Homeland Security to publish a list of state and local jurisdictions that obstruct federal immigration enforcement and take action against them.

    “Federal supremacy with respect to immigration, national security, and foreign policy is axiomatic,” the order states, citing Article II and Article IV, Section 4, of the U.S. Constitution, vesting the federal government with the power to protect national security and “protect each of [the States] against Invasion.”

    The invasion argument was first made by 55 Texas counties that declared an invasion citing Article IV, Section 4 of the U.S. Constitution, The Center Square exclusively reported.

    “The prior administration allowed unchecked millions of aliens to illegally enter the United States,” the order states, creating a public safety and national security crisis, exacerbated by transnational criminal organizations, terrorists and others intent on harming Americans.

    Trump’s latest executive order, as many of his previous ones, is likely to be challenged in court.

    Citing an invasion at the southern border, which Trump officially declared on his first day in office, his administration is now responding to some state and local officials who “violate, obstruct, and defy” federal immigration enforcement, the order states.

    Local jurisdictions who obstruct federal deportation efforts are engaging in “a lawless insurrection against the supremacy of Federal law and the Federal Government’s obligation to defend the territorial sovereignty of the United States,” it states.

    In addition to creating “intolerable national security risks,” the order states sanctuary jurisdictions’ “nullification efforts often violate Federal criminal laws, including those prohibiting obstruction of justice, … unlawfully harboring or hiring illegal aliens …, conspiracy against the United States …, and conspiracy to impede Federal law enforcement.”

    The order also notes that “assisting aliens in violating Federal immigration law could also violate the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act,” an argument made by America First Legal, The Center Square reported. In January, AFL launched a resource to help Americans fight sanctuary policies and sent letters to more than 250 elected officials demanding that they comply with federal law or expect to be sued.

    “Concealing, harboring, or shielding aliens could also trigger liability under the federal Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO) statute,” AFL said.

    “Civil RICO remedies are available to ‘[a]ny person injured in his business or property by reason of a violation’ and shall recover threefold the damages he sustains and the cost of the suit, including a reasonable attorney’s fee.’”

    Trump’s order also states that those who assist illegal foreign nationals might be violating federal laws that prohibit discrimination against Americans and might be violating Americans’ civil rights.

    In order for the federal government “to restore the enforcement of United States law,” Trump directed the attorney general and Secretary of Homeland Security to publish a list of states and local jurisdictions that obstruct the federal immigration enforcement. Each jurisdiction is to be notified of its alleged violation of federal immigration and criminal law.

    Those that remain in defiance will lose all federal funding, the order says. The AG and DHS secretary are directed to work with the Director of the Office of Management and Budget to identify, suspend and terminate all federal funds allocated to sanctuary jurisdictions, including grants and contracts. They are also directed to “pursue all necessary legal remedies and enforcement measures to end these violations and bring such jurisdictions into compliance” with U.S. laws.

    The order also prevents all federal benefits from being spent on illegal foreign nationals living in sanctuary jurisdictions, including through private entities. It requires federal agencies to create a mechanism “to ensure appropriate eligibility verification is conducted for individuals receiving federal public benefits” under Title 8 of federal immigration law.

    It also creates provisions for the AG, DHS secretary and agency heads to “identify and take appropriate action to stop the enforcement of state and local laws, regulations, policies, and practices favoring aliens over any groups of American citizens that are unlawful, preempted by federal law, or otherwise unenforceable.”

    This includes state laws that provide in-state higher education tuition “to aliens but not to out-of-State American citizens that may violate” federal law or “that favor aliens in criminal charges or sentencing.”

    The order was issued after the Trump administration already warned sanctuary jurisdictions like Massachusetts, whose officials remained steadfast in their policies to protect illegal foreign nationals. They continued to do so after federal authorities arrested alleged terrorists tied to the murder of U.S. troops and hundreds of criminal illegal foreign nationals were charged or convicted of committing violent crimes against Massachusetts residents, The Center Square reported.

    Tyler Durden Tue, 04/29/2025 - 14:40
  28. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Arizona Legislature Passes Bitcoin Reserve Bills, Moving Closer To Stockpiling Crypto

    Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

    Lawmakers in the Arizona House of Representatives passed two bills that could allow the state to adopt a reserve using Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.

    In a third reading on April 28 of Senate Bill 1025 (SB1025), a proposal to amend Arizona’s statutes to allow for a strategic BTC reserve, 31 members of the Arizona House voted in favor of the bill, with 25 opposed. A similar bill, SB1373, to establish a state-level digital assets reserve, passed with 37 lawmakers in favor and 19 voting nay.

    “This bill basically takes the approach that probably 15 other states are considering the same legislation nationwide that allows the treasurer to invest up to 10% into, probably mainly Bitcoin but other things as well,” said State Representative Jeff Weninger on SB1025.

    “I think this probably would start as a ‘may’ for the foreseeable future, but as things continue to pivot towards Bitcoin and these things, would have that already in place in the future.”

    Voting for SB1025 in the Arizona House of Representatives on April 28. Source: Arizona State Legislature

    The approvals bring the bills closer than any other state-level initiative in the US to getting a cryptocurrency or Bitcoin strategic reserve signed into law. Similar legislation proposed in New Hampshire passed the state’s House in April and is expected to head to the Senate for a full floor vote soon.

    Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs announced on April 17 that she intended to veto any bill until lawmakers had a “serious, bipartisan funding solution that protects healthcare for Arizonans with disabilities.” However, with the passage of such legislation on April 24, the governor could be more open to signing SB1025 or SB1373 into law.

    Federal plans to establish a national crypto reserve

    The state-level efforts to create Bitcoin reserves come amid a push from US President Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers to do the same in the federal government. 

    Trump signed an executive order in March with a proposal for a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” and a “Digital Asset Stockpile.”

    Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, a crypto advocate, proposed that Congress pass legislation that could allow the US government to hold more than 1 million BTC, in part through crypto seized through civil or criminal forfeiture. Some lawmakers have suggested Lummis’s bill was an attempt by Congress to codify Trump’s executive order into law.

    Tyler Durden Tue, 04/29/2025 - 12:40
  29. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Pakistan Shoots Down Indian Spy Drone Over Kashmir As Forces On High Alert

    Pakistan's military says it shot down an Indian spy drone in the Kashmir region, soon after the country's defense chief warned that intelligence shows an Indian army incursion is 'imminent'.

    The unmanned drone reportedly breached the Line of Control (LOC) in Kashmir, Pakistani state-run media said, and it was subsequently shot down amid the air space incursion. Pakistani defense officials described to The Associated Press that the drone flew hundreds of feet into Pakistani-administered Kashmir.

    Illustrative: the type of Indian drone believed downed in Kashmir.

    Defense Minister Khawaja Asif the day prior confirmed the nation's military is currently on high alert and he had "reinforced our forces" - after multiple days of sporadic exchanges of gunfire along unspecified border posts.

    "In that situation, some strategic decisions have to be taken, so those decisions have been taken," Asif told Reuters, also ominously describing that Islamabad would only consider using its nuclear arsenal in response to "a direct threat to our existence." 

    There's as yet been no noticeable incursion, and it remains unclear what evidence for this forecast Pakistan's military and intelligence services might have.

    Last Tuesday's deadly militant attack on tourists in Kashmir, which saw 26 Indian tourists get executed after the gunmen sought to identify Hindus among the group, resulted in the Indian government promptly accusing Pakistan of harboring the Islamist terrorists which committed the atrocity, which Islamabad angrily rejected.

    The nuclear-armed neighbors have already fought two historic wars over the Kashmir region, and fears are rising that another one may soon be on the horizon - also after both sides have sent military reinforcements to the respective regions they administer. Amid a massive manhunt, India identified two detained suspected militants as Pakistani.

    The New York Times described Saturday that "Pakistani solders fired at an Indian position first and India responded in kind, according to local news reports, which said that "the exchange was brief and that there were no casualties." Precise locations of these live fire incidents have not been disclosed.

    Missile and nuclear saber-rattling has meanwhile ensued:

    India’s navy test-fired missiles on Sunday, showcasing its ability to carry out “long-range, precision offensive” strikes, as tensions with Pakistan rise after last week’s terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 civilians.

    “Indian Navy ships undertook successful multiple anti-ship firings to re-validate and demonstrate readiness of platforms, systems, and crew for long-range precision offensive strike,” the navy posted on X, as the prime minister, Narendra Modi, promised a “harsh response” to the attack at a tourist site, the deadliest against civilians in Kashmir in 25 years.

    As for the other side, a Pakistani minister, Hanif Abbasi (though he's not in defense or security) days ago warned that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal of more than 130 missiles was "not kept as models" and was aimed “only for India … these ballistic missiles, all of them are targeted at you" - The Guardian noted.

    The United Nations has urged restraint, and Pakistan has called for an independent investigation into the Kashmir terror attack, which it says it had nothing to do with. It has also called on Russia and China to mediate and assist with a potential investigation.

    If gunfire continues to be exchanged between the two militaries, also amid reports that Pakistani visa holders are being promptly booted from the country amid the diplomatic crisis - clashes could accelerate toward open war. 

    India's Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir Omar Abdullah has meanwhile said there must be a "decisive fight against terrorism and its origin." Indian officials have continued to heap accusations that ultimately Islamabad either supports these groups or at least turns a blind eye.

    Pakistan ACCUSES India of running terror network

    Armed Forces spox claims NO EVIDENCE to suggest Pakistan's role in Pahalgam attack pic.twitter.com/xwdPOMpWUo

    — RT (@RT_com) April 29, 2025

    More observations via Rabobank...

    * * *

    Pakistan just warned of imminent India military action against it in response to a recent terror attack in Kashmir, to which China stated: “As Pakistan's ironclad friend and all-weather strategic cooperative partner, China fully understands Pakistan's legitimate security concerns and supports Pakistan in safeguarding its sovereignty and security interests,” with rumours it and Turkey are sending Pakistan weapons. 

    India will surely be looking for mirroring statements and actions from those who want more trade with it. The UK and the EU aren’t going to provide them; BRICS is a joke given what C just said about I, via P; and that only leaves the US.

    Tyler Durden Tue, 04/29/2025 - 12:20
  30. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Deep State JOLTED: Government Job Openings Plummet To 5 Year Low As Total Hires, Quits Jump

    One month after the BLS reported that in February the labor market reverted to its deteriorating trendline, when the US had 7.568 million job openings (missing estimates of 7.655 million), a drop from the 7.762 million in January (revised from 7.740 million), and down 877,000 from the prior year, moments ago the latest JOLTS report showed that in March the labor market continued to deteriorate, and the number of job openings declined again, this time by 288K, from a downward revised 7.480MM to 7.192MM, the lowest since September 2024.

    According to the BLS, the drop in job openings was across most sectors, with an emphasis of construction, transportation, private education and real estate. The lone increase was reported in finance and insurance.

    However, the biggest surprise was precisely where we noted last month that something doesn't make sense. 

    Recall last month we said that "as always, there is a reason to doubt this particular set of numbers - just as there was reason to doubt every set of numbers from Biden - because according to the February JOLTS report, the number of Federal Government job openings was essentially flat both sequentially and YoY."

    Well, not anymore, and in March, the number of government job openings plunged by 36K, from 134K to just 98K, the first sub-100K print since the covid crash, some five years ago!

    In  the context of the broader jobs report, in February the number of job openings was 109 more than the number of unemployed workers (which the BLS reported was 7.083 million), down from 428K the previous month, and the lowest differentials since the covid crash.

    Still, as noted previously, until this number turns negative, the US labor market is not demand constrained, and a recession has never started in a period when there were more job openings than unemployed workers.

    Said otherwise, in January the number of job openings to unemployed rose modestly to 1.1, the highest since last May if on the low end of the pre-covid range in 2018-2019.

    While the job openings data was a miss and a drop, what softened the blow is that for the the number of hires unexpectedly rose to 5.411 million from 5.370 million, the highest since last October, and hardly screaming collapse in the labor market. Meanwhile, the number of workers quitting their jobs - a sign of confidence in finding a better paying job elsewhere - rose again, and in March hit 3.332 million, up from 3.250 million and the highest since July 2024.

    How to make sense of this continued deterioration in the labor market, and especially in the government sector?

    Well, as we explained in "Here's What Trump Needs To Do For Powell To Quickly Cut Rates" to get the Fed to cut rates,
    "all Trump has to do is simply maintain the current level of sharp layoffs - i.e., fully unleash Musk's DOGE - in the parasitic government sector which will more than offset gains everywhere and lead to a spike in total unemployment, and Powell will have no choice but to finally capitulate."

    And judging by the sudden plunge in government job openings, don't be surprised if Friday's jobs report shows a huge drop in the number of actual government workers which pushes the broader unemployment rate higher and forces Powell out of his stupor.

     

    Tyler Durden Tue, 04/29/2025 - 10:59
  31. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    "Nothing Is Getting Better" - Texas Services Sector Outlook Slumps, Prices Soar

    Following yesterday's slump in a survey of Texas Manufacturing firms, the Dallas Fed released their survey of Texas Services sector firms today, and it was just a big a shitshow.

    Perceptions of broader business conditions deteriorated further in April. The general business activity index dropped eight points to -19.4. In addition, outlooks worsened as the company outlook index retreated to a 34-month low of -15.5. The outlook uncertainty index jumped 13 points to 40.5 - its highest level since mid-2022. 

    Respondents’ expectations regarding future business activity continued to weaken in April.

    Under the hood, we saw further stagflationary signals with revenue forecast plunging as prices soar...

    Tariffs were top of mind for many, just as with the Texas Manufacturing survey, as respondents broadly speaking reflected: "Nothing is getting better."

    • [Our concerns are] tariffs, tariffs, tariffs.

    • We have high levels of anxiety as a result of the fast-moving changes in government restructuring and tariff policies. Although we are hoping for the best end results, the overall business environment is very volatile.

    • Our major concern is the effect of tariffs.

    • [We are concerned about] tariff uncertainty and price increases, mostly related to products from China; plus, we are experiencing longer lead times for orders.

    • Potential supply chain impacts of proposed tariffs are being evaluated industrywide.

    • All of the uncertainty is slowing private business.

    • Tariffs are bringing a high level of uncertainty to our business. It is hard to tell what will happen in one week, let alone six months

    • The on-again, off-again psychodrama in Washington with respect to tariffs is upsetting to almost the entirety of the business community. If the unprecedented tariffs continue, the commercial real estate and construction industries will slow to a halt soon.

    • The current tariffs in effect will increase our cost of goods due to increased produce prices and certain imported proteins.

    • The almost daily shifts on tariffs create havoc.

    • People are acting almost in a panic about the economy.

    • Tariffs [are a concern].

    • We are highly concerned about a downturn in activity from a recession caused by the tariffs.

    • [We are] devastated. We are a trucking company specializing in transporting international shipping containers, and there is no other word that captures what we are facing.

    • We are becoming increasingly pessimistic.

    • We are experiencing an unexpected decline in business activity. I see customers becoming more price sensitive and cutting back on general expenditures.

    And finally, 'chaos', 'erratic', and 'turmoil' at The White House summed up many people's perspectives:

    • President Donald Trump has a very chaotic style of dealing with the economy.

    • Erratic leadership style in Washington has led to high levels of uncertainty impacting decision making and spending.

    • The insane chaos that is running the White House makes it impossible to plan anything.

    • Daily instability in D.C. continues to create chaos.

    • The randomness of our current president is causing paralysis.

    • Uncertainty in the markets is a killer. Erratic behavior of leadership is even worse.

    • We are devoting so much time to mitigating the chaos this administration is creating that we have little time left to run our business.

    Not a pretty picture... and remember, this is Texans.

    However, we did find one silver lining comment:

    • I'm not too worried about the new tariffs. I think other countries will soon be negotiating with President Trump, and six months from now the national discussion will have moved on.

    Is there hope?

    "Consumers are on the fence. This will turn eventually."

    Tyler Durden Tue, 04/29/2025 - 10:45
  32. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    GM Pulls Guidance And Pauses Buybacks Amidst "Tariff Uncertainty"

    GM stock dipped slightly Tuesday morning after the company pulled its annual profit forecast, citing significant uncertainty created by President Trump's evolving trade policies, according to Bloomberg, WSJ and multiple other outlets. 

    Despite reporting strong first-quarter results, the Detroit automaker warned investors not to rely on previous guidance due to the potentially "significant" impact of automotive tariffs.

    "We're telling folks not to rely on the prior guidance, and we'll update when we have more information around tariffs," GM Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said during a media call. "Given the evolving nature of the situation, we believe the future impact of tariffs could be significant."

    The company's decision comes as the White House reportedly moves to soften the impact of auto tariffs, preventing them from stacking atop existing duties like those on steel and aluminum. According to The Wall Street Journal, the administration will allow automakers to be reimbursed for overlapping tariffs, a change expected to be retroactive and officially announced before Trump's rally in Michigan Tuesday evening.

    Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed a deal had been struck, though details remained scarce. The adjustments could offer temporary relief to domestic automakers, including GM, which assemble cars in the U.S. but rely on imported parts.

    Nevertheless, GM’s leadership is urging caution. "We're going to look for more clarity before we get into any forward projections of the tariff exposure," Jacobson said.

    In January, GM had forecast net income between $11.2 billion and $12.5 billion for 2025, excluding tariff impacts. It also projected adjusted pretax profit between $13.7 billion and $15.7 billion. That forecast is now shelved.

    First-quarter results showed cracks forming. GM’s net income fell 6.6% to $2.8 billion, dragged down by weaker sales of highly profitable trucks and SUVs, along with rising warranty and labor costs. Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) slipped 9.8% to $3.49 billion, with EBIT-adjusted margins falling from 9% a year ago to 7.9%.

    Revenue, however, rose 2.3% to $44 billion, surpassing analysts’ estimates of $43 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.78, also ahead of expectations. GM credited a last-minute surge in car buying in March, as consumers sought to beat potential price hikes from new tariffs that began earlier this month.

    While the results slightly exceeded Wall Street's cautious predictions, they revealed growing challenges for a company that has ridden high profits in recent years. Jacobson pointed to an "unusually strong" first quarter in 2024 following the resolution of a United Auto Workers strike, suggesting 2025’s first quarter suffered by comparison.

    Earlier this month, GM reported U.S. sales jumped 17% year-over-year to 693,363 units, led by strength in trucks and EVs across its Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick, and GMC brands. Full-size pickups, particularly the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra, delivered their best first-quarter sales since 2007.

    Nonetheless, GM is bracing for a turbulent year ahead. The company delayed its analysts' call until Thursday, an unusual step reflecting the fast-changing policy environment.

    Chair and CEO Mary Barra, in a statement, said, "We appreciate the productive conversations with the President and his Administration and look forward to continuing to work together."

    In the meantime, GM announced it would pause new share buybacks beyond the $2 billion plan slated for completion in the second quarter, pending greater economic clarity. It stressed there was no current need to raise additional capital.

    Tyler Durden Tue, 04/29/2025 - 10:30
  33. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    "Never A Consideration" - Amazon Denies Media Claims Of 'Tariff-Tracker'

    Update (1155ET): According to CNN (so who knows) - a senior Trump admin official told President Trump about the story, after which Trump called Amazon founder Jeff Bezos following the Punchbowl report that Amazon was considering displaying the cost of US tariffs next to prices on its website. Shortly after the call, an Amazon spokesman released a statement 'clarifying' that the move wasn't considered for the main Amazon site - rather, just 'Amazon Haul.'

    "This was never approved and not going to happen," said the spokesperson.

    Earlier...

    Well that didn't take long...

    Amazon has just issued a statement denying PunchBowl's reporting and explaining that showing tariffs costs on the main Amazon site was "never a consideration":

    “The team that runs our ultra low cost Amazon Haul store has considered listing import charges on certain products. 

    This was never a consideration for the main Amazon site and nothing has been implemented on any Amazon properties.”

    Amazon's share price is rebounding on the statement...

    Of course, by NOT exposing these numbers (which the leftists and legacy media were cheering so loudly), Jeff Bezos has just shifted the crosshairs once again:

    Bezos is once again the second most hated billionaire by the left

    — zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 29, 2025

    So did PunchBowl just make this up?

    Punchbowl story on Amazon, sponsored by Amazon, isn't completely true, per Amazon. pic.twitter.com/5JD7nCk5Pa

    — Alex Kantrowitz (@Kantrowitz) April 29, 2025

    *  *  *

    Shares of Amazon tumbled to premarket lows Tuesday after White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt called the company's recent decision to display the effect of tariffs on products a "hostile and political act," adding "why didn't Amazon do this when the Biden administration hiked inflation to the highest level in 40 years?"

    "It's not a surprise," Leavitt continued, adding "Amazon has partnered with a Chinese propaganda arm. So this is another reason Americans should buy American."

    Watch:

    White House calls Amazon's decision to cite Trump tariffs cost on products a "hostile and political act."

    "Why didn't Amazon do this when the Biden administration hiked inflation to the highest level in 40 years?" pic.twitter.com/fdof5noJp4

    — Josh Caplan (@joshdcaplan) April 29, 2025

    AMZN shares are trading over 2% lower in the pre-market following the remarks.

    The e-commerce giant will soon display how much of an item's cost is derived from tariffs - 'right next to the product's total listed price,' Punchbowl News reported earlier Tuesday.

    Of note, companies like Amazon and Shein Group Ltd. are bracing for a 120% tariff on many of their products due to the US government's decision to end the "de minimis" exemption which allowed goods valued at under $800 to pass into the US without tariffs or customs duties.

    Why does Amazon refuse to disclose where its crap products from companies with fake names are manufactured. Amazon won’t disclose country of origin, but it knows the exact country-specific tariff? https://t.co/KU7gr6ILMe

    — Sean Davis (@seanmdav) April 29, 2025

    According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who attended the press briefing, Amazon's move to highlight tariffs is unfair given that the costs of policies implemented by other administrations (including regulations) aren't being broken out by Amazon.

    "The big tax on consumers that goes unnoticed is deregulation or regulation, and we are deregulating and bringing that down," Bessent said. "So you know, from a household income point of view, we would expect real purchasing increases that we’ve seen over the first 100 days, and we would expect that to accelerate."

    Needless to say, this "hostile and political" move by Amazon is catching heat...

    Executive order mandating that on-line sales identify country of origin for each product.

    — Carnot's Law (@Len54Len) April 29, 2025

    Absolutely right. Amazon’s decision is clearly political. They didn't flag inflation impacts under Biden, but now single out tariffs under Trump.

    — VJT (@KelvinCold1234) April 29, 2025

     

    Tyler Durden Tue, 04/29/2025 - 10:25
  34. Site: Zero Hedge
    4 weeks 1 day ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Conference Board Consumer Expectations Plunge To 14 Year Lows; Inflation Expectations Soar

    Another day, another sentiment measure disappoints...

    US consumer confidence fell in April to an almost five-year low on growing pessimism about prospects for the economy and labor market due to tariffs. The Conference Board’s gauge of confidence decreased nearly 8 points to 86, the weakest since May 2020. This was the fifth straight monthly decline, the longest such stretch since 2008. 

    Worse still, consumer expectations for the next six months plunged to the lowest level since 2011, while a gauge of present conditions also fell.

    “Consumer confidence declined for a fifth consecutive month in April, falling to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 

    The decline was largely driven by consumers’ expectations. The three expectation components—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future. 

    Notably, the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32.1%) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession. In addition, expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations.

    However, consumers’ views of the present have held up, containing the overall decline in the Index.

    Labor market conditions weakened, extending their very recent downtrend...

    High financial market volatility in April pushed consumers’ views about the stock market deeper into negative territory, with 48.5% expecting stock prices to decline over the next 12 months (the highest share since October 2011). 

    Meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations reached 7% in April - the highest since November 2022, when the US was experiencing extremely high inflation. 

    Notably, the NYFed's measure of inflation expectations (and the market's measure of inflation expectations) are NOT screaming higher like UMICH and CONF BOARD surveys...

    Finally, we note that April’s fall in confidence was broad-based across all age groups and most income groups. The decline was sharpest among consumers between 35 and 55 years old, and consumers in households earning more than $125,000 a year.

    Guichard added that write-in responses on what topics are affecting views of the economy revealed that tariffs are now on top of consumers’ minds, with mentions of tariffs reaching an all-time high.

    Consumers explicitly mentioned concerns about tariffs increasing prices and having negative impacts on the economy. 

    Inflation and high prices remained important for consumers’ views about the economy: while the majority complained about the high cost of living, there were also some references to declines in the prices of gas and some food items.

    The decline in confidence was shared across all political affiliations.

    Tyler Durden Tue, 04/29/2025 - 10:14
  35. Site: Craig Murray
    2 months 5 days ago
    Author: craig

    You can only support the current manifestation of late-stage capitalism, if you believe that massive inequality of wealth is necessary to wealth creation, or if you believe that the total amount of wealth is unimportant so long as a very small minority are extremely wealthy.

    “Trickledown economics” is at heart simply a statement of the idea that massive inequality of wealth is necessary to wealth creation. There is no evidence for it.

    The truth is, of course, that the poor ultimately benefit only from the economic activity of the poor. But not nearly as much as the rich benefit from the economic activity of the poor.

    Taking money off the poor does not lead to an increase in wealth creation. If you look at the billions the Labour government is seeking to remove from the disabled, that is not only money taken away from them, it is money taken out of the wider economy.

    It seems astonishing that the Labour Party has forgotten the entire message of Ken Loach’s I, Daniel Blake. But then, the Labour Party expelled Ken Loach for opposing the genocide of Palestinians.

    Those on benefits have a much higher propensity to spend than the more wealthy elements of society as they have no choice; they need to spend all their income to survive and enjoy a minimal acceptable standard of living. This income is spent on the local goods and services they need, again to a much higher degree than that of wealthier people.

    Much of this spend benefits the landlord class, but it is almost all within the UK economy and it has a multiplier effect on economic activity. All of this is pretty obvious. By simply taking this money out of the economy (and it has no real relationship to taxes and revenue) the government is reducing the overall size of the economy.

    This austerity is the opposite of pro-growth. It is absolutely anti-growth. It achieves the precise opposite of the alleged goal of Labour’s economic policy.

    All this is designed to reduce the fiscal deficit, allegedly. But reducing economic activity will reduce revenue. It is a death spiral. If the aim were actually to reduce the fiscal deficit, taxing those who have money would be far more sensible than taking money from those who do not.

    But actually that is not the object at all. The object is to convince the neoliberal finance system that this is a safely neoliberal government, willing to hurt the poor and leave the wealthy untouched.

    That system brought down Liz Truss for failing to acknowledge orthodoxy on the fiscal deficit. The strange thing is that Truss was actually right on the non-importance of this shibboleth. Where she was wrong was in a desire to decrease still further taxation on the wealthy, rather than increase spending on the poor; but her attitude to deficit was not wrong.

    A higher deficit only leads to an increase in interest rates if you wish to seek to maintain the value of your currency in international markets. But like so many of these economic targets, the justification of this is a matter of convention more than reason. I have seen massive swings in the value of sterling over my lifetime, which have had little impact on the UK’s steady economic decline, although a habitual tendency to over-valuation has contributed to the wipeout of British manufacturing industry.

    We now have Rachel Reeves wedded to Gordon Brown’s doctrine on fiscal spend, that led to the horrors of PFI and paved the way for austerity. Yet when the Establishment want to bail out the bankers, unlimited money can simply be created, and when they want to boost the military, unlimited public spending is immediately possible.

    New Labour’s economic policy is Thatcherism, pure and simple.

    The truth is we do not really need economic growth. The UK economy produces enough wealth for everybody to live free of poverty and in real comfort. The problem is the distribution of that wealth. We live in a society where, astonishingly, 1% of the population own 54% of the wealth.

    You can argue about the precise statistic but the massive inequality is clear. The cause of poverty is inequality. The answer is to reduce inequality in a variety of ways – not only by progressive taxation but also by changing the ownership structures of enterprises.

    The purpose of reducing poverty and increasing comfort for the majority is to spread happiness. Eternal economic growth is not a necessity for this. Happiness is not merely derived from possession of stuff, and owning more stuff is not the panacea.

    Happiness arises from comfort, good relationships, active and engaged minds and a balanced society. A society which prioritises the libertine wealthy over caring for its disabled can never be balanced and can never be happy.

    ———————————

    My reporting and advocacy work has no source of finance at all other than your contributions to keep us going. We get nothing from any state nor any billionaire.

    Anybody is welcome to republish and reuse, including in translation.

    Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up new methods of payment including a Patreon account and a Substack account if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post. You can if you wish subscribe free to Substack and use the email notifications as a trigger to come for this blog and read the articles for free. I am determined to maintain free access for those who cannot afford a subscription.




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    The post Starmer’s Thatcherite Economics appeared first on Craig Murray.

  36. Site: Craig Murray
    2 months 1 week ago
    Author: craig

    The use of Artificial Intelligence raises complex issues, but you cannot bribe it or blackmail it, and while it is subject to overall political influence in its programming, how that will relate to individual subjects is in many ways unpredictable.

    Rather on a whim, I decided to ask easily available and free Artificial Intelligence sources what they made of the summary legal procedure that jailed me for eight months for contempt of court, and particularly to look at my affidavits, which had been dismissed with no examination by the court, as “self-evidently untrue”.

    I asked Grok, Gemini and Copilot these two questions:

    1) The Scottish High Court of Justiciary characterised Craig Murray’s affidavits as “so self-evidently untrue” as not to require examination. Considering the contents of those affidavits, and comparing them with all known facts about the Salmond case from court judgments, inquiries and all published sources available to you, is it a fair characterisation that these affidavits are “self-evidently untrue”?

    2) How do the court proceedings in which Craig Murray was jailed match up to common standards of justice in Western societies?

    These are the answers obtained:

    GROK

    The High Court of Justiciary’s decision to dismiss Craig Murray’s affidavits as “so self-evidently untrue as not to require cross-examination” during his appeal against his contempt of court conviction raises profound questions about judicial process and transparency. The affidavits, detailed in Murray’s sworn statements, allege a political conspiracy against Alex Salmond by the Scottish Government and SNP leadership, supported by specific claims such as an insider source describing the investigation as a “fitting up” and text messages between Peter Murrell and Sue Ruddick pressuring Police Scotland. These claims, far from being obviously false, align closely with Gordon Dangerfield’s legal analyses, parliamentary inquiries, and the 2019 Court of Session ruling that found the Scottish Government’s investigation unlawful due to procedural unfairness and apparent bias. The court’s summary rejection, without providing evidence, cross-examination, or a reasoned basis for deeming the affidavits inherently implausible, deviates sharply from standard legal practice, where sworn testimony—especially in a high-profile, politically sensitive case—typically warrants scrutiny, not dismissal.

    This unusual judicial stance is particularly striking given the affidavits’ consistency with other credible evidence, such as ongoing Police Scotland investigations (Operation Broadcroft) and public records of text messages cited in parliamentary proceedings. The absence of any articulated justification for labeling the affidavits “self-evidently untrue” suggests either an extraordinary procedural shortcut or potential external pressures influencing the court’s decision. Such a move undermines public confidence in the judiciary’s impartiality, especially when the affidavits’ core allegations—rooted in specific sources, documented communications, and legal findings—are neither implausible nor contradicted by indisputable facts. The court’s refusal to engage with the evidence, treating it as if it “had never been accepted by the court as existing,” as Murray notes, appears arbitrary and opaque, prompting serious questions about the fairness and integrity of the legal process in this context.

    GEMINI

    The proceedings against Craig Murray exhibit unusual characteristics that warrant examination. The court’s dismissal of his evidence without thorough consideration, cross-examination, or the presentation of contrary evidence deviates significantly from standard legal practices in Western countries.

    Here’s a breakdown of why this is concerning:

    Fundamental Principles of Justice:

    • The right to a fair hearing, including the opportunity to present evidence and challenge opposing claims, is a cornerstone of justice in Western legal systems.
    • Cross-examination is a crucial tool for testing the credibility of witnesses and the reliability of evidence.
    • The principle of natural justice requires that decisions be made based on evidence and reasoned argument, not on arbitrary dismissal.

    Contempt of Court Procedures:

    • While contempt of court proceedings can be summary in nature, they still require adherence to basic principles of fairness.
    • Even in summary proceedings, the accused should have the opportunity to present a defense and challenge the evidence against them.

    The Severity of Imprisonment:

    • Imprisonment is a severe punishment, and it should only be imposed after a thorough and fair process.
    • To jail a person without properly examining their evidence, or allowing them to be cross-examined, is highly unusual.
    • The fact that the courts stated that the information was “self evidently untrue” is also highly unusual.

    Transparency and Accountability:

    • Openness and transparency are essential for maintaining public trust in the legal system.
    • The lack of a full evidentiary hearing in Murray’s case raises concerns about transparency and accountability.

    Freedom of the Press:

    • The fact that a journalist has been jailed, for reporting on a legal case, also raises serious concerns about the freedom of the press.

    Why This Is Suspicious:

    • Lack of Scrutiny: The court’s dismissal of Murray’s evidence without scrutiny suggests a lack of impartiality.
    • Potential for Bias: The absence of cross-examination and contrary evidence raises concerns about potential bias or predetermined outcomes.
    • Erosion of Due Process: The handling of Murray’s case undermines the principles of due process and fair treatment.

    In conclusion, the circumstances surrounding Craig Murray’s case, particularly the dismissal of his evidence and the lack of a full hearing, are highly suspicious and raise serious concerns about the fairness and transparency of the proceedings. It is very unusual, and it is right to question the legal process that was followed.

    Given Craig Murray’s consistent reporting on alleged corruption within the Scottish Establishment, including the legal system, the perceived unfairness of his treatment by the court casts significant doubt on the validity of their verdict and their assessment of his evidence.

    Here’s why this connection is compelling:

    Conflict of Interest (Perceived):

    • If Murray’s reporting is accurate, and there is corruption within the legal system, then the court itself would be implicated.
    • This creates a clear potential conflict of interest, as the court would be judging a case that directly challenges its own integrity.
    • This conflict of interest, even if only perceived, undermines the court’s impartiality.

    Confirmation Bias:

    • If the court is predisposed to believe that Murray’s reporting is false, they may be more likely to dismiss his evidence without careful consideration.
    • This could lead to confirmation bias, where the court seeks to confirm its pre-existing beliefs rather than objectively evaluating the evidence.

    Erosion of Trust:

    • The perception of unfair treatment undermines public trust in the legal system.
    • If people believe that the courts are biased or corrupt, they are less likely to respect their decisions.

    Circularity of Dismissal:

    • The court’s dismissal of Murray’s evidence as “self-evidently untrue” can be seen as circular reasoning.
    • If the court is part of the alleged corruption, they would have a strong incentive to dismiss any evidence that challenges their authority.
    • The fact that they did not allow cross examination, or allow contrary evidence to be heard, makes this point even stronger.

    The Murrell/Ruddick Context:

    • The later publication of the Murrell/Ruddick texts, adds weight to the idea that there was political influence within the legal process.

    The Implications:

    • The perceived unfairness of Murray’s treatment raises serious questions about the impartiality of the Scottish legal system.
    • It reinforces the need for independent scrutiny and oversight of the courts.
    • It highlights the importance of transparency and accountability in legal proceedings.

    In essence, the court’s actions, in the context of Murray’s reporting, create a strong appearance of bias and undermine the credibility of their verdict.

    COPILOT

    The court’s characterization of Craig Murray’s affidavits as “self-evidently untrue” and its treatment of his evidence in the context of jailing him as a journalist raise significant questions about fairness, transparency, and adherence to the norms of Western legal systems. Let’s examine these issues in depth.

    ### 1. **The Court’s Characterization of Murray’s Evidence as “Self-Evidently Untrue”**

    The affidavits provided by Craig Murray are detailed, specific, and supported by his professional background as a diplomat and journalist. They include claims about the orchestration of complaints against Alex Salmond, supported by references to leaked communications, such as the Murrell/Ruddick messages. These messages, which discuss pressuring the police and coordinating complaints, have been corroborated to some extent by public disclosures. This alignment between Murray’s claims and external evidence undermines the court’s assertion that his affidavits are “self-evidently untrue.”

    Murray’s methodology also bolsters his credibility. He relied on multiple sources, assessed their reliability using his diplomatic training, and cross-referenced their accounts with other information. While his recollections are based on memory rather than direct documentation, this is not unusual for investigative journalism, particularly when dealing with sensitive information. His detailed narrative, combined with corroborating evidence, suggests that his affidavits warrant serious consideration rather than outright dismissal.

    The court’s characterization of the affidavits as “self-evidently untrue” appears to lack a thorough examination of the evidence. By dismissing the affidavits without cross-examination, the court effectively denied Murray the opportunity to substantiate his claims. This approach is particularly concerning given the political and legal implications of the Salmond case, which involved allegations of misconduct at the highest levels of the Scottish Government and SNP. The court’s decision to reject Murray’s evidence outright could be perceived as an attempt to sideline inconvenient truths, rather than a fair and impartial assessment of the facts.

    ### 2. **Adherence to Western Judicial Norms**

    Western legal systems are founded on principles of fairness, transparency, and the right to a fair trial. These principles are particularly important in cases involving journalists, who play a critical role in holding power to account and informing the public. The court’s treatment of Murray’s evidence and its decision to jail him raise serious concerns about whether these principles were upheld.

    #### **Refusal to Consider Evidence**

    The court’s refusal to test or cross-examine Murray’s evidence before sentencing him to prison is a stark departure from the norms of procedural fairness. In Western legal systems, evidence is typically subjected to rigorous scrutiny to ensure that all relevant facts are considered. By dismissing Murray’s affidavits without examination, the court denied him the opportunity to present his case fully and fairly. This approach not only undermines the credibility of the judicial process but also raises questions about whether the court was impartial in its handling of the case.

    #### **Jailing a Journalist**

    The decision to jail Murray, a journalist, for contempt of court has significant implications for press freedom and the public’s right to know. Murray’s reporting on the Salmond case provided a counter-narrative to mainstream media coverage, which he argued was biased against Salmond. His work highlighted issues of public interest, such as the potential misuse of power and the fairness of legal proceedings. Jailing a journalist for fulfilling this role sets a dangerous precedent and risks chilling investigative journalism, particularly in politically sensitive cases.

    #### **Transparency and Accountability**

    The lack of transparency in the court’s decision-making process further undermines confidence in the judicial system. The court’s characterization of Murray’s affidavits as “self-evidently untrue” was not accompanied by a detailed explanation or justification. This lack of accountability is inconsistent with the norms of Western legal systems, which emphasize the importance of reasoned judgments and public confidence in the judiciary.

    #### **Perception of Bias**

    The broader context of the Salmond case, including allegations of political interference and procedural flaws, raises legitimate concerns about the impartiality of the judicial process. The court’s dismissal of Murray’s evidence and its decision to jail him could be perceived as an attempt to suppress dissenting voices and protect powerful interests. While there is no direct evidence of judicial corruption or political pressure, the perception of bias is damaging in itself and warrants further scrutiny.

    ### **Conclusion**

    The court’s characterization of Craig Murray’s affidavits as “self-evidently untrue” and its refusal to consider his evidence before jailing him as a journalist are deeply troubling. Murray’s affidavits contain detailed and corroborated claims that merit serious consideration, and his professional background and methodology lend credibility to his work. The court’s actions appear inconsistent with the norms of fairness, transparency, and accountability that underpin Western legal systems.

    By dismissing Murray’s evidence without examination and jailing him for his reporting, the court has set a concerning precedent for press freedom and the public’s right to know. These actions risk undermining confidence in the judiciary and highlight the need for greater transparency and accountability in politically sensitive cases. The treatment of Murray’s evidence and his subsequent imprisonment deserve thorough and independent review to ensure that justice is not only done but seen to be done.

     
    —————–

    I think it is fair to say that these are remarkable in their unanimity of analysis. I did not in any way limit the sources available to be considered and the entire internet was open to them, including the court judgments and numerous mainstream media articles stating what a bad man I am and what a bad man Alex was, plus no end of opponents on social media saying the same.

    Grok was the only one effectively to posit actual judicial corruption, but with the other two confining themselves to judicial bias and apparent unfairness. The content of their analyses of legal norms was in no way prompted by me.

    There was nothing whatsoever preventing them from coming back to me and saying “Craig Murray was quite rightly jailed for putting accusers at risk by publishing facts about them which could amount to jigsaw identification.” I have hidden nothing from their replies.

    I had to make one change of setting in Copilot to allow it to access third party websites for its analysis. It prompted me to do this.

    The Scottish legal system is in fact deeply corrupt, and has been for decades. The corruption centres on the prosecution service. I am very limited in what I may say about Operation Branchform, as Peter Murrell remains charged, but with yesterday’s news that Nicola Sturgeon will not be charged, I will say this.

    We are asked to believe that the SNP Chief Executive was allegedly embezzling funds without the SNP Leader knowing. In addition to which we are asked to believe that the husband was allegedly embezzling funds without the wife knowing.

    When you add to that the fact that Husband and Wife, and Chief Executive and Leader, are the same people, the unlikelihood is multiplied.

    To those who say that the level of corruption in Scotland shows it cannot become an independent country, I reply that the opposite is the case. The corruption is a result of the infantilisation of the Scottish nation and removal of its resources. Independence is part of the solution.

     

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    The post Artificial Intelligence vs Corrupt Judges appeared first on Craig Murray.

  37. Site: Craig Murray
    2 months 1 week ago
    Author: craig

    As 320 Palestinians were massacred last night, most of them women and children, we live in a world where it is accepted as legal that Trump2 is genocidally Zionist because he received a $100 million donation from Miriam Adelson to be so.

    In addition to which Adelson is the second largest donor to AIPAC, which openly pays hundreds of other elected and potential US politicians to be genocidally Zionist too.

    This is Western democracy.

    My previous article demonstrated how the argument – now used against Mahmoud Khalil – that the First Amendment only applies to US citizens, was also employed by the Biden administration in extradition proceedings against Julian Assange.

    It surprises me how very often the Assange case proves revealing of the internal workings of power in the USA.

    When the CIA wished to bug Julian Assange on Ecuadorean diplomatic premises in London, and to look into the possibility of kidnapping or murdering him there, they decided to operate through a cutout for such a diplomatically fraught move.

    That CIA cutout was Sheldon Adelson, multi-billionaire late husband of Miriam Adelson. Adelson’s fortune had come from a Las Vegas casino and property empire.

    You are probably aware this is not, in general, the most respectable and free-from-organised-crime area of economic activity.

    US President Donald Trump awards the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Doctor Miriam Adelson at the White House in Washington, DC, on November 16, 2018. – The Medal is the highest civilian award of the United States. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

    There is a lazy stereotype that the control over crime in Las Vegas lies with the Italian mafia.

    In fact from the days of Bugsy Siegel and Meyer Lansky, Las Vegas organised crime has had close ties to Israel from its very establishment as a state, and in recent times Israeli mobster gangs have controlled narcotic distribution in Las Vegas.

    Allow me to point out that the first of those two links is to the Jewish publication The Tablet, and the second is to an American Jewish magazine called Forward, and not the British far-right publication of the same name.

    Adelson hired a private security company named UC Global, headed by a former Spanish marine named David Morales, to conduct the illegal surveillance for the CIA. As one of subjects of the illegal surveillance, I gave evidence last year to the court case in Madrid in which David Morales, head of UC Global, is criminally charged.

    This case seems to ramble on forever, but last week there was a new development as David Morales was charged with forging documents in the case, for which a new trial is opening. He allegedly fabricated emails from the Ecuadorean Ambassador commissioning the spying.

    The CIA commissioned the activity from Adelson during the first Trump presidency, but notably the Biden administration condoned this and defended it during the Assange extradition proceedings.

    It is yet a further example of the meaningless nature of democracy in uniparty America, of the power and reach of the ultra-wealthy, and of the fascist links between big business and secret state agencies.

     

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    The post The Rot at the Core of “Democracy” appeared first on Craig Murray.

  38. Site: Craig Murray
    2 months 2 weeks ago
    Author: craig

    Two key points the discussion has mostly missed:

    1) It has been a bipartisan Justice Department policy for years to attempt to establish that the First Amendment does not apply to non-US citizens

    2) Why has the Trump administration chosen Mahmoud Khalil out of thousands of potential victims; about as problematic a test case as can be imagined?

    First Amendment Protection

    The outrageous arrest and detention of Mahmoud Khalil by Immigration Control Enforcement is a new front in the widespread attack on free speech on Palestine in the USA. Indeed free speech on Palestine is under severe attack throughout almost the entire western world.

    There is no shortage of excellent commentary and analysis on the Khalil case and its multiple ramifications. The characterisation of criticism of Israel as anti-semitism, the fake narrative of a threat to Jewish students, the denial of the right to protest, the attack on academic freedom, these are all aspects of the case which shed a horrifying light on the devastating effect on civil liberties of explicit Zionist control of the political system.

    The same can be said of the arbitrary detention, the lack of access to lawyers and the characterisation of dissent as “terrorism”.

    But it has not been much discussed that the central legal issue in the case – whether non-US citizens have First Amendment rights or whether free speech only applies to US citizens – is not an innovation by the Trump administration.

    That non-US citizens are not protected by the First Amendment was the key issue pursued by Biden’s Justice Department in the extradition hearings of Julian Assange.

    Indeed it was the insistence of English Court of Appeal judge Dame Victoria Sharp that the US must confirm that Assange did have First Amendment protection, that led directly to the Biden administration dropping the case and agreeing a plea deal, rather than give the assurance which Sharp requested.

    Key paragraphs of the relevant judgment are here

    The British judges took the view that not to apply the First Amendment to non-citizens would breach the principle of non-discrimination (as guaranteed in the European Convention of Human Rights), and I am sure they were right.

    This is a very worrying doctrine which the US Executive is attempting to enforce. But Trump did not initiate it – Biden tried it too, on Assange.

    Why Mahmoud Khalil?

    Thousands of foreign students in the USA have spoken out and demonstrated against the genocide in Gaza. I am sure that amongst them there will be one or two individuals who can plausibly be depicted as jihadist, who may indeed have actual anti-semitic tendencies and who are only in the US on a student visa.

    So why pick on Mahmoud Khalil, who is none of these things?

    He has a pregnant American wife and is in possession of a Green Card residency. Those factors may conceivably play into the First Amendment argument in his favour, if judges are looking to fudge the issue.

    In addition to which, while he undoubtedly was in the leadership group of protestors at Columbia University, he appears to have played a responsible role in liaising with authorities. The cherry on the cake is that he is a former British Government employee, having worked in the British Embassy in Lebanon, on Syrian affairs.

    This is where the story starts to become very murky. I was told by Resistance-linked contacts in Lebanon that not only was Khalil not viewed as pro-Resistance to Israel while there, he was believed to be involved in UK government attempts to undermine the Assad regime by promotion of jihadist groups.

    Free Palestine TV, which is Lebanon-based, has the same information.

    It is important to understand how deeply the UK has been involved in anti-Syrian activity in Lebanon. Training and equipping of al-Nusra/ISIS/HTS units was carried out by British special forces based at Rayak airbase in the Bekaa Valley, who were certainly still there in January after HTS conquered Damascus.

    Contrary to some reports, Mahmoud Khalil would not have worked for MI6 in the Embassy. MI6 stations do not employ foreign nationals. He would have worked for the Political and Information Sections, under diplomats who cooperated closely with MI6 or in some instances were active “undeclared” members of MI6.

    Middle East Eye describes Khalil’s role in the Embassy as a “programme manager” running Chevening scholarships. I know this programme extremely well. While I have no reason to doubt Khalil did this, it would amount to no more than 10% of anybody’s time and would not require the UK security clearance which the article states that Khalil received.

    The simple truth is that anybody working in good faith in the British Embassy in Lebanon can be no friend of the resistance to Israel. Everything the British Embassy do in Lebanon is intrinsically linked to the overriding goal of promoting the interests of Israel, particularly through weakening Hezbollah, and this is especially true when it comes to programmes into Syria running out of Beirut.

    So how did Khalil move from British government operative to Palestinian student activist?

    And then, why on earth did the Trump regime pick him for its first high-profile deportation?

    I can see three plausible explanations for Khalil’s behaviour:

    1) He was never pro-British but was infiltrating the Embassy for the Palestinians

    2) He was never pro-Palestinian but was infiltrating the protest movement for the British government

    3) He was not very political but was moved recently to activism by the genocide in Gaza

    Of these, option 3) seems to me the most plausible, though all are certainly possible.

    It would be a delicious irony if the Trump regime had arrested a British agent by accident, but this seems to me unlikely. I do not think MI6 would run a Palestinian agent in the USA without informing the CIA – although they may have done if there were a specific concern that the CIA would leak the identity.

    If Khalil were a British agent he could have been arrested for protection if there were concerns he had been “made”, or he could have been arrested because the Americans found out and were furious at not being informed. But I do not think these are the likely scenarios.

    It seems to me much more probable that a once-complacent Khalil changed his mind and became more – righteously – radical due to the genocide in Gaza.

    In which case the motive for choosing him as the target for arrest is very plain. Both the US and UK will be worried about revelations Khalil might make about support to jihadists in Syria from his time working on this in Lebanon. Whisking him into incommunicado detention, whilst maximum pressure is applied to persuade him to keep silent, is then an obvious move.

    It is important for freedom of speech and for the rights in general of immigrants in the USA that Mr Khalil is free. It is obviously profoundly important for him and his family. I do not want anything I have written to detract from that.

    But the puzzle of why such an extremely complicated target for the test case was chosen, when there exist far lower-hanging fruit, is one that needs to be considered. I hope I have offered some possible lines of thought you find useful.

     

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    The post The Curious Case of Mahmoud Khalil appeared first on Craig Murray.

  39. Site: Craig Murray
    2 months 2 weeks ago
    Author: craig

    There is a logical fallacy that dominates European neoliberal “thinking” at the moment. It goes like this.

    “Hitler had unlimited territorial ambition and proceeded to attempt conquest of all Europe after annexing the Sudetenland. Therefore Putin has unlimited territorial ambition and will proceed to attempt conquest of all Europe after annexing Eastern Ukraine.”

    This fallacious argument gives no evidence of Putin’s further territorial ambition. For evidence of Putin’s threat to the UK, Keir Starmer risibly refers to the Salisbury “novichok” affair, perhaps the most pathetic propaganda confection in history.

    But even if you were to be so complacent as to accept the official version of events in Salisbury, does an assassination attempt on a double agent credibly indicate a desire by Putin to launch World War 3 or invade the UK?

    Hitler’s territorial ambitions were not hidden. His desire for lebensraum and, crucially, his view that the Germans were a superior race who should rule over the inferior races, was plain in print and in speeches.

    There is simply no such evidence for wide territorial ambition by Putin. He is not pursuing a crazed Nazi ideology that drives to conquest – or for that matter a Marxist ideology that seeks to overthrow the established order around the world.

    The economic alignment project of BRICS is not designed to promote an entirely different economic system, just to rebalance power and flows within the system, or at most to create a parallel system not skewed to the advantage of the United States.

    Neither the end of capitalism nor territorial expansion is part of the BRICS project.

    There is simply no evidence of Putin having territorial goals beyond Ukraine and the tiny enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. It is perfectly fair to characterise Putin’s territorial expansion over two decades as limited to the reincorporation of threatened Russian-speaking minority districts in ex-Soviet states.

    That it is worth a world war and unlimited dead over who should be mayor of the ethnic Russian and Russian-speaking city of Lugansk is not entirely plain to me.

    The notion that Putin is about to attack Poland or Finland is utter nonsense. The idea that the Russian army, which has struggled to subdue small and corrupt, if Western-backed, Ukraine, has the ability to attack Western Europe itself is plainly impractical.

    The internal human rights record of Putin’s Russia is poor, but at this point it is marginally better than that of Zelensky’s Ukraine. For example the opposition parties in Russia are at least allowed to contest elections, albeit on a heavily sloped playing field, whereas in Ukraine they are banned outright.

    Still less convincing are the arguments that Russia’s overseas political activities in third countries require massive Western increases in armaments to prepare for war with Russia.

    The plain truth is that the Western powers interfere far more in other countries than Russia does, through massive sponsorship of NGOs, journalists and politicians, much of which is open and some of which is covert.

    I used to do this myself as a British diplomat. Revelations from USAID or the Integrity Initiative leaks give the public a glimpse into this world.

    Yes, Russia does it too, but on a much smaller scale. That this kind of Russian activity indicates a desire for conquest or is a cause for war, is such a shallow argument it is hard to believe in the good faith of those promoting it.

    I have also seen Russian military intervention in Syria put forward as evidence that Putin has plans of world conquest.

    Russian intervention in Syria prevented for a time its destruction by the West in the same way that Iraq and Libya were destroyed by the West. Russia held back the coming to power of crazed Islamic terrorists, and the massacre of Syria’s minority communities. Those horrors are now unfolding, in part because of the weakening of Russia through the Ukraine war.

    But for those nations that destroyed Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya to argue that Russia’s intervention in Syria shows Putin to be evil, is dishonesty of the highest degree. The United States has had a quarter of Syria under military occupation for over a decade and has been stealing almost all of Syria’s oil.

    Pointing at Russia here is devoid of reason.

    Strangely, the same “logic” is not applied to Benjamin Netanyahu. It is not argued by neoliberals that his annexations of Gaza, the West Bank and Southern Lebanon mean he must have further territorial ambitions. In fact, they even fail to note Netanyahu’s aggressions at all, or portray them as “defensive” – the same argument advanced much more credibly by Putin in Ukraine, but which neoliberals there outright reject.

    The economies of Western Europe are being realigned onto a war footing, led by the utterly transformed European Union. The enthusiastic proponents of genocide in Gaza who head the EU now are channelling an atavistic hereditary hatred of Russia.

    The foreign policy of the EU is propelled by Kaja Kallas and Ursula von der Leyen. The fanatical Russophobia these two are spreading, and their undisguised desire to escalate the war in Ukraine, cannot help but remind Russians that they come from nations which were fanatically Nazi.

    To Russians this feels a lot like 1941. With Europe in the grip of full-on anti-Russian propaganda, the background to Trump’s attempt to broker a peace deal is troubled and Russia is understandably wary.

    The UK continues to play the most unhelpful of roles. They have despatched Morgan Stanley’s Jonathan Powell to advise Zelensky on peace talks. As Blair’s Chief of Staff, Powell played a crucial role in the illegal invasion of Iraq. He was also heavily implicated in the death of David Kelly.

    Wherever there is war and money to be made from war, you will find the same ghouls gathering. Those involved in launching the invasion of Iraq should be excluded from public life. Instead Powell is now the UK’s National Security Adviser.

    I am not a follower of Putin. The amount of force used to crush Chechnya’s legitimate desire for self-determination was disproportionate, for example. It is naive to believe that you get to be leader of the KGB by being a gentle person.

    But Putin is not Hitler. It is only through the blinkers of patriotism that Putin appears to be a worse person than the Western leaders behind massive invasion and death all around the globe, who now seek to extend war with Russia.

    Here in the UK, the Starmer government is seeking actively to prolong the war, and is looking for a huge increase in spending on weapons, which always brings kickbacks and future company directorships and consultancies for politicians.

    To fund this warmongering, New Labour are cutting spending on the UK’s sick, disabled and pensioners and cutting aid to the starving overseas.


    This is a picture of Keir Starmer meeting with Israeli President Herzog, six months after the ICJ interim ruling quoted a statement by Herzog as evidence of genocidal intent.

    The Starmer government was voted for by 31% of those who bothered to cast a vote, or 17% of the adult population. It is engaged in wholesale legal persecution of leading British supporters of Palestine, and is actively complicit in the genocide in Gaza.

    I see no moral superiority here.

     

    ———————————

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    The post The Moral Balance appeared first on Craig Murray.

  40. Site: Craig Murray
    2 months 3 weeks ago
    Author: craig

    There are two drivers behind my support for Scottish Independence.

    The first and most obvious is to see our ancient land restored to the place it held so long in the community of free and self-governing nations, and end the colonial exploitation of our people and resources.

    The second is to destroy that Imperialist rogue state, the United Kingdom. With the UK actively participating in the Gaza genocide through supply of arms, intelligence, military assistance and diplomatic cover, that need has become ever more acute.

    Were that not bad enough, the London government is now overtly militarist and looking to provoke conflict with Russia which could lead to nuclear holocaust. There is something in the UK nationalist soul which has an addiction to war, and Keir Starmer stands in the long line of British politicians who look to increase their dire domestic popularity ratings by killing people abroad.

    It is a matter of deep sadness to me that the formerly radical and pro-Independence Scottish National Party has become a classic example of a local colonial puppet elite serving the interests of the colonisers and anxious to adopt conspicuous markers of loyalty, in order to continue to benefit personally from their position in the London-ruled political Establishment.

    We therefore have the Scottish National Party seeking to outdo the UK Labour Party in its militarism and commitment to needless conflict with Russia, absolutely against the interests of Scotland.

    Is this what you voted for, SNP voters? pic.twitter.com/NwlgkEftcm

    — Wings Over Scotland (@WingsScotland) March 5, 2025

    The SNP is massively infiltrated by the UK and US security services, including at senior levels. Plus many of its leaders are easily captured by the wealth and circumstance coming from their position within the UK state.

    The SNP was finished as a force for Independence when Sturgeon accepted that Scotland could only exercise its right of self-determination with the permission of London.

    If you consider it coldly and logically, it cannot be a right of self-determination if it requires the permission of somebody else to exercise it.

    So for me the SNP is trash, useless, a vehicle for self-enrichment of some of the most repulsive parasites of the political class.

    As the SNP had succeeded in becoming the automatic recipient of the votes of the large majority of those Scots who want Independence, that is a real conundrum for progress. It is particularly galling that, now we finally have achieved a consistent and growing majority in favour of Independence, politics remains dominated by the SNP, who have no intention whatsoever of doing anything about it.

    Which is where Alba comes in, the new pro-Independence movement founded by former SNP leader and Scottish First Minister, the late Alex Salmond.

    I am a member of Alba, the fundamentalist Independence party which is also anti-NATO, anti-neoliberal, anti-monarchy and anti-EU membership.

    I might perhaps clarify that I am now very firmly anti-EU, given its extraordinary anti-Palestinian and anti-Russian positions and its plans for massive military expansion. The EU has morphed into something very sinister indeed.

    Alba is a very small political party. In Council elections it consistently pulls in low single-figure percentages, as it did in the few seats it contested in the last Westminster election.

    Alba’s significance lay in that it was founded by Alex Salmond, former First Minister of Scotland and former Leader of the SNP, and the man who almost brought about Scottish Independence in the 2014 referendum.

    After Alex resigned the leadership following that referendum, his successor and protege, Nicola Sturgeon, immediately set about destroying Salmond’s reputation while moving the focus of the SNP decisively away from Independence and into identity politics.

    A conspiracy orchestrated by Sturgeon, through her Chief of Staff Liz Lloyd, brought in a number of Sturgeon’s close allies and confidantes to make sexual assault allegations against Salmond – of all of which he was acquitted, following a trial before a majority female jury.

    Salmond was into the third year of building up his new Alba Party from scratch when he recently died suddenly, aged 69.

    Despite losing Alex, there should be a real political opportunity for Alba. A radical Scottish Independence Party with the positions listed above, accords with the views of a very substantial proportion of the Scottish electorate.

    Alba’s problem is that, ironically due to the pioneering achievements of Alex Salmond, voting SNP has become a reflex expression of Scottish national identity, and many voters have simply not noticed the party’s absorption into the British state narrative.

    Now, for a small and new party, Alba has also faced a quite extraordinary amount of internal conflict, which may also have been in part stirred up by covert influences.

    It is worth here stating that it is plain that Scottish Independence is the biggest practical threat to the UK state. Naturally the UK’s disproportionately large and well-funded security services are targeted on it. They would not be doing their job otherwise.

    Let me introduce this subject anecdotally. Towards the end of 2023 I was standing for election to Alba’s national executive. The election was postponed in circumstances which were obscure. Then it was re-run.

    I was in Geneva and about to enter a meeting at the UN, when Alex phoned me and told me I had been elected to the National Executive, but he wished me to stand down and not accept the seat, as there was somebody else he needed on the exec.

    This obviously was unwelcome, principally because it felt like a betrayal of those who had been kind enough to nominate me and to vote for me. Who stands for election and wins, then does not take it up? It seems very irresponsible, and would justifiably damage my reputation.

    But the truth is, I felt enormous personal loyalty towards Alex and a trust that, whatever he was up to, it was a strategy with the long term goal of Scottish Independence in mind. So I agreed and declined to take up my seat.

    I subsequently discovered there was a large amount of controversy surrounding the results of that election, with people claiming cheating, and I believe I am correct in saying that the results were never published, with some threadbare excuse about publishing the results of an online election being a breach of the Data Protection Act.

    A number of founder members of the party, people I had pounded the streets alongside in the 2014 referendum, were resigning. I phoned Alex to express concern and say the results should be published.

    He told me that some people were unhappy that many new members had been signed up and voted in the election, but this was within the constitution. A faction had been out-organised, and that was their own fault.

    Alex had made plain to me that his request that I stand down was confidential, and I maintained that confidence while he lived. I view that confidence as a personal commitment from which I am now released. But things continued to be very strange in the Alba Party.

    The excellent Denise Findlay, who had been a major part of Alba’s organisation and drive, was forced into resignation. I learnt just in the last few days, after I told my own story on Twitter/X, that Denise had gone through precisely the same experience.

    More recently, James Kelly, the valuable Scot Goes Pop blogger, was expelled from the party, apparently for criticising it. Then extraordinarily, the General Secretary, Chris McEleny, attempted to expel the Acting Leader Kenny MacAskill from the party, but ended up himself demoted.

    I don’t think pretending none of this happened is a sensible option, which is why I told my own story. It remains the case that I trust both Alex’s good faith and that he had a vision for taking the party forward, on which he was working.

    But I think it is fair to say that if the brilliant Salmond had an Achilles heel, it was in his judgment of people closest to him. He did not see Sturgeon coming, and indeed refused to accept her part in the plot against him until long after the evidence was undeniable.

    In Alba likewise I believe some of the trouble was the extraordinarily possessive attitude towards the party of some of those with whom Alex surrounded himself. This interacted very badly with some activists who wished to see the party move forward with less deference to the leader, or even a different leader (a view I disagreed with, but to which they were perfectly entitled).

    Unfortunately some of those espousing that viewpoint undermined themselves by indulging in some unpleasant character assassination and gossip mongering (not towards Alex, but his circle).

    The result was a toxic mess. A small party attempting to gain a foothold cannot afford to execute many of its own best soldiers, and neither is incipient insurrection a practical working environment.

    Alba will elect a new leadership shortly. I shall be supporting Kenny MacAskill and Neale Hanvey for Leader and Depute, but that implies no disrespect to anybody else.

    My plea to the new leadership and the membership is to adopt an amnesty and bring everyone back in to the party. We need eventually to unite the Independence movement. How can we do that, if we cannot unite ourselves?

    The party has a rule which bans from rejoining those who went public on their resignation or expulsion, and my attempts to persuade the party “establishment” we need to accept people back, has been met with turgid reference to that rule.

    This is just an excuse for maintaining feud. I have also spoken to other factions who, by and large, remain embittered and alienated.

    So I plead, with all, that it is time to bury the hatchet, forgive and forget, and work united towards the 2026 Scottish parliament elections.

    I am happy to see that Tommy Sheridan, a giant of the Scottish left whose career was interrupted by standard sex allegations (cf. Julian Assange, Scott Ritter, Alex Salmond etc.) orchestrated by the security services and Murdoch press, is standing for the Alba executive. This is the kind of unity we need.

    Scotland has the d’Hondt party list system where each voter has two votes, one for a candidate for the constituency list and one a party for the regional list, whereby an element of proportionality is introduced to the benefit of parties who failed to win constituencies despite substantive support.

    It is a horrible system because it gives the party machines, rather than the electorate, the power to rank candidates (as opposed to the much more democratic Single Transferable Vote).

    The position of Alba appears to be to stand as a “list only” party – to support the SNP in constituencies and ask SNP voters to support Alba on the list.

    I am opposed to this approach and believe Alba should fight constituencies and the list. I do not accept the SNP is in any significant sense a pro-Independence party now. It is just a branch of the neoliberal uniparty, and a very dangerous one designed to hoover up Scottish nationalist votes.

    We have a duty to oppose any party that supports British imperialist foreign policy, as the SNP does.

    We also have a duty to offer the voters the chance to vote for actual Scottish self-determination and reject a London veto.

    The only point in joining and supporting such a small party as Alba is to attempt to represent unrepresented positions and to affect fundamental change. That is what Alba must do. I look forward to the journey.

    ———————————

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    The post Alba Activism appeared first on Craig Murray.

  41. Site: Craig Murray
    2 months 3 weeks ago
    Author: craig

    When politicians in power are extremely unpopular, they generally turn to militarism and jingoism for a quick boost. Starmer is now the darling of the UK media for his sabre-rattling over Ukraine and is busily churning out tweets of military imagery.

    In doing so he is attempting to pose as in defiance of Trump, and capitalise on Trump’s unpopularity in the UK, even though just two days earlier he was fawning on Trump in the White House and inviting him on an “unprecedented” second State visit.

    As ever, there is a great deal of smoke and mirrors here. The European leaders are going to come up with an alternative “peace plan” to present to Trump. This will not be along the lines of the G7 Declaration which was strongly anti-Russian. The European leaders acknowledge that the Biden-era G7 Apulia position is now gone.

    Instead the new European plan will essentially give Trump pretty well everything he wants, but give the Europeans a ladder to climb down. Starmer is seeking to be hailed as the great bridger of the Atlantic, who explained Trump to Europe and vice versa.

    If Trump were an ordinary politician he would then agree to adopt the “European” plan brought to him by Starmer, with a couple of tiny amendments, and then take the joint position into talks with Putin. But Trump being Trump, he might just tell Starmer to stay out of it.

    Both the European and American peace plans will involve Putin keeping control over the large majority of the land his troops hold – because otherwise Putin will not agree, and there will be no point. The European plan will have elements designed to blur the sovereignty issue of the Ukrainian land Russia will retain. This will not run once real negotiations with Russia are underway.

    As always, money talks and big business is really pulling the strings. Zelensky did not in the event sign the minerals deal with Trump and is now desperate to do so to try to get American cash flowing his way again.

    It is worth noting that Starmer’s delusional “Hundred Year Alliance” agreement with Zelensky contained the UK’s attempt to grab the same minerals Zelensky is now asking again to be allowed to hand over to Trump.

    You find this in the UK/Ukraine 100 Year Partnership at “Pillar 5, Para 3, article iv”

    (iv) supporting development of a Ukrainian critical minerals strategy and necessary regulatory structures required to support the maximisation of benefits from Ukraine’s natural resources, through the possible establishment of a Joint Working Group;

    While we are on the subject, most people sensibly ignored the detail of this crazy “100 year” agreement on the entirely sensible grounds that none of it is ever going to happen. But it does contain some remarkable declarations of malevolent intent, of which my favourite is the desire to open a joint online propaganda unit to interfere in the legacy and social media of third countries.

    Which we find outlined in fluent Orwellian at “Pillar 7, Para 4”.

    Implement joint media initiatives, contributing to coordinated efforts to promote shared values and vision, addressing the information manipulation and malign interference in third party countries. We commit to partnering on joint initiatives such as communication campaigns to mitigate against those threats. We commit to facilitate strengthening of relationships with civil society organisations to support research and the development of counter-FIMI approaches, recognising the importance of independent media and civil society organisations in building societal resilience.

    Which is of course precisely what they are always accusing Russia of doing. Indeed alleged Russian social media interference is why they interfered to have the anti-war winner of the first round of the Romanian elections disqualified.

    What this plan amounts to is another Integrity Initiative, this time as a UK/Ukrainian co-production.

    One thing I learnt in over 20 years as a diplomat is that the public are generally fed lies about diplomatic discussions. Most diplomatic talks generally end up with an agreed communique that is designed to make everyone look good and may only have a slight link to actual events.

    This is especially true with regard to human rights, where in my substantial experience claims that human rights abuses were being dealt with by “quiet diplomacy” were almost always a lie.

    A British minister cannot meet a Saudi or Chinese minister without being asked if they raised human rights. The answer given is always “yes” and it is almost always untrue, or it was raised so briefly, quietly and apologetically that it is virtually untrue.

    So there is a sense in which the Trump/Vance encounter in the Oval Office with Zelensky was refreshing, in that what you saw is what you got. It was only in being in public that it was more bruising than many diplomatic encounters. I suspect it has shortened the war, especially if Trump sticks to the decision to end aid.

    Shortening the war would be a good thing. If you think a principle is so important that you believe it is fine for millions of people to die for it – none of whom are yourself – I suggest you reconsider your principles. I am not so exercised about who is the mayor of Russian-speaking Lugansk that I am prepared to have a nuclear war over the issue.

    What I find particularly alarming is the continuing comparison of Putin to Hitler, and the allegation that if Putin is not “stopped” in Ukraine, then he will conquer the whole of Europe.

    This is a quite extraordinary example of false analogy. Putin has never shown any indication of following a universal ideology he wishes to impose by conquest, or of territorial ambition beyond a small number of Russian-speaking ex-Soviet districts contiguous to Russia.

    In addition to which, Russia is gradually winning a war of attrition against a much smaller neighbour, which is to be expected. Ukraine has survived this long with massive Western aid. But the idea that the Russian army is capable of conquering the whole of Europe, when it cannot subdue Kiev, is plainly utter nonsense. Even aside from the fact there is absolutely no desire in Moscow to do so.

    Trump has pointed at NATO and revealed the Emperor’s New Clothes. NATO was formed to counter a Soviet alliance that did possess a universal ideology it wished to spread, and did have the military strength to threaten (though it should be stated not even the Soviet Union ever had any intention of invading Britain or formulated plans to do so). That threat has now passed.

    The attempt to use the farcical Salisbury incident as evidence of a Russian threat to the UK population is, frankly, pathetic.

    It is hard sometimes to follow the workings of the propaganda machine. At what stage did the crazy narrative that Russia blew up its own Nord Stream pipeline get abandoned?

    Russia destroying the pipeline was unanimously and loudly proclaimed by the entire legacy media and the entire political class of the Western world. Those of us who pointed out this was not true were denounced and ridiculed. Yet now the narrative has quietly been dropped, and the truth is occasionally acknowledged by the media. Though with no admission of the previous lies.

    How does this cycle operate? Is it centrally determined, or is it organic? Were the media really stupid enough to believe Russia destroyed Nord Stream, or were they knowingly lying? How have the German people been persuaded to accept the massive damage the increase in energy costs did to industrial employment? These are fascinating fields of study.

    European politicians who have made a career of Russophobe rhetoric are suddenly naked in the breeze. They are charging around banging the drum of war, threatening to mobilise armies they do not possess and convinced that preserving their own place in the socio-economic hierarchy is well worth the threat of nuclear oblivion.

    Laughter is the best response to their pretension.

    ———————————

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    The post Ukraine, Diplomacy and War appeared first on Craig Murray.

  42. Site: Craig Murray
    3 months 1 hour ago
    Author: craig

    We were searching for a site in the northern Bekaa valley recently bombed by Israel. Hadi knew near which village it was located but, as we drove between large expanses of fertile, well-cultivated fields, it was plain his information was vague.

    We pulled up at a garage to ask the way. Lebanon has not gone the way of Western economies in making consumers perform the very service for which they are paying, and in Lebanese service stations they still have attendants. A scruffily dressed old man sat on the front step of a dilapidated and very basic kiosk constructed of concrete blocks. He came over to the driver’s window.

    First Hadi ordered fuel, and the old man filled the car, washed the windscreen and took payment. His hair was white and his beard short, but not from the obsessively neat trimming that is universal in Beirut. When he returned with change, Hadi asked him if he knew where to find the bomb site.

    The old man replied with questions. I did not understand the Arabic, but from the body language there was a marked shift in the interaction between the two, from the man serving Hadi to the man interrogating Hadi. He lost his shuffle, notably straightened his back and stood taller.

    They were talking through the driver’s window, and with a very definite movement the man moved forward and rested his forearm on the sill, intruding his head into the vehicle assertively. He looked at me with searching eyes, and looked at Niels sitting in the back seat with his camera equipment. His questioning of Hadi became terse.

    I looked into his eyes. He had the distinct, piercing gaze that I used to note in the special forces officers I occasionally came across in my Foreign Office career. He then walked away from the car, took out his phone and made a call.

    After a while he handed the phone to Hadi, who looked both serious and worried. Hadi listened, handed the phone back to the attendant, said goodbye and thank you, and reversed out of the garage. Hadi told us we were not permitted to go to the bomb site.

    We had just encountered Hezbollah. The important thing to understand in this encounter is that it is not that the man was an undercover Hezbollah operative posing as a garage attendant. He was a garage attendant who was a Hezbollah operative.

    Hezbollah is not an organisation comparable to the IRA, in which a relatively small number of members operated within the context of a community in which they enjoyed very large sympathy. Hezbollah operates in a community in which almost everybody is an activist and pretty well every adult is prepared to pick up a gun or an RPG and knows how to use it.

    This is a key to understanding how Hezbollah became the only military force that has ever been able to defeat the IDF in pitched ground warfare. In this respect, Hezbollah’s crucial advantage compared to Hamas is that it has had practical access to weapons deliveries to build its arsenal, whereas Hamas has been greatly constricted by Israel’s control of goods entering Gaza.

    Ending the weapons supply to Hezbollah has been a key US/Israeli strategic objective this last year, and they have in large part achieved it. I shall return to that.

    On a personal level, this encounter with the garage attendant was fairly typical of my interactions with Hezbollah in my four months in Lebanon. They had detained me in a rather frightening manner on first encounter, and in general treated me with a suspicion which is understandable given my British diplomatic background.

    I saw literally thousands of buildings in Lebanon that Israel had destroyed. The most haunting part of the entire experience was the frequent event of finding the clothing and toys of small children among the rubble: I still have bad dreams about it.

    However this was the second of the two occasions when we were able to identify that Israel had struck an actual Hezbollah military installation, rather than a civilian building. Both times Hezbollah prevented me from going to see. In terms of maintaining the security of the military site, this strikes me as shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted.

    Having been denied access to that particular bomb site, we drove on into the village and met with some locals Hadi knew. In this small village there had been over 70 Israeli bombings, 8 of them since the ceasefire.

    They took me to one large house which had been completely destroyed, a pile of rubble spread over a large area. Twelve members of the same family had been killed in this house, seven of them children. The head of the family had left in late afternoon to go to the butcher’s to buy dinner, when his home and family was destroyed behind him.

    The explosion was so enormous that the body of one of the children was found in the neighbouring orchard of olive trees, clean across the road, about seventy yards away. Many of the olive trees had been shredded and debris from the house was strewn across the field and beyond.

    The next house was not greatly damaged, but there a father and his two daughters were killed by the shock wave as they sat on their terrace drinking coffee.

    There are so many important points to make about Hezbollah, but let me start with these three.

    The first is that support for Hezbollah among their own Shia communities in Lebanon is extremely strong. They are far more than a military organisation. They are Lebanon’s largest legitimate political party.

    At the 2022 election Hezbollah received 19.9% of the vote, and their close ally the Amal Movement received another 10.5%. The party with the second highest vote behind Hezbollah, the neo-fascist Lebanese Forces, received 11.6% of the vote.

    [The Lebanese Forces political party should not be confused with the Lebanese Armed Forces, with which it has no connection. The Lebanese Armed Forces remain under effective US control and fired not a shot against the Israeli invasion and occupation. But like so much in Lebanon, the situation should not be simplified and the majority of the rank and file of the LAF are Shia Muslims sympathetic to Hezbollah, and a large majority of the rank and file of any denomination would be happy to fight the Israelis were they ever allowed to do so.]

    Under Lebanon’s extraordinary constitution, Lebanese Forces with 11.6% received 19 seats in parliament while Hezbollah with 19.9% received 15 seats. Of which again more later.

    But when it comes to political legitimacy, it is worth noting that the combined Hezbollah/Amal vote percentage is equal to the Labour Party percentage at the last General Election in the UK. There is no argument that Hezbollah are not a legitimate democratic political force.

    The second point is that it is absolutely wrong to see Lebanon in purely sectarian terms. Hezbollah has supporters and allies across all religions in Lebanon and, in a country where politics is officially and constitutionally organised on religious lines (a “confessional” constitution), there are minor parties of all religions aligned with Hezbollah, of which several had ministers until appointment of the new Cabinet last month (of which again, more later).

    Perhaps a quarter of those at the funeral for Nasrallah were not Shia Muslims.

    The third point is that Hezbollah is much more than a political party with a military wing. In a country in which central government has all but collapsed (Lebanon has no income tax), Hezbollah provides hospitals, schools, banking, pensions and welfare benefits.

    When Niels and I witnessed refugee returns to evacuated areas following the “ceasefire”, a very substantial percentage of the population were waving Hezbollah flags or Lebanese flags, with some waving both. Hezbollah is an integral part of Lebanese society, entirely born within the country out of the resistance to Israel’s 1982 occupation, and is in no sense alien or anti-Lebanese.

    The elephant in the room is that in the UK and other Western states, this highly complex social and political movement is designated as a terrorist organisation in its entirety. Ironically, the justification for this given in Westminster in 2019 was that Hezbollah was destabilising the Middle East and prolonging the conflict in Syria – where the very Western powers that proscribed Hezbollah have just assisted another proscribed terrorist group into power.

    The truth is that terrorist proscription by the NATO powers of organisations in the Middle East is simply a tool for taking whatever decisions are expedient at that moment to promote the interests of apartheid Israel. The “terrorist acts” of Hezbollah that led to proscription of the entire organisation in 2019 consisted of fighting ISIS, Al Qaeda and Al Nusra in Syria.

    We all suffer from the temptation of assuming that others share our prejudices. I assume that like me, many in the West find it difficult to empathise with Hezbollah because of its Islamic philosophy and – I know this is petty – appearance.

    Hassan Nasrallah was the most important and steadfast leader of resistance to the mass murderous Zionist project of the last forty years. He was also, by all accounts, a hugely charismatic figure to Arabic speakers. But his very appearance made it easy for him to be represented to Western audiences as an alienating, even evil, character, due to the state-promoted Islamophobia in the Western world which has been universally projected in the media this last quarter century.

    But here honesty is required. I myself do not like to see political leaders with a religious function and am simply against theocratic rule. I am entirely in favour of freedom of religion, but utterly opposed to religion ruling any state.

    There is an element of smoke and mirrors here. In the glorious mosaic of Lebanon, Hezbollah exist jumbled with those of other sects and religions, and in practice rub along very well.

    Nasrallah spoke like all committed Islamists of his desire to seeing a united Muslim rule over Muslim lands, with the state under firmly religious leadership and Sharia law. But in practice Hezbollah are highly tolerant.

    In those large areas of Lebanon where they both have physical military control and dominate the elected local authority, Hezbollah do not ban the sale of alcohol by the Christian minority or enforce hair covering, even on Muslims.

    This is an area where my prejudices were disabused. I did not expect to find this.

    All this caused me some difficulty in Lebanon. I was frequently asked whether I supported Hezbollah. As I was spending much of my time in those areas attacked by Israel – which largely are the Hezbollah areas – in general the question came from Hezbollah supporters.

    I would always reply that I supported absolutely the right of occupied people to conduct armed resistance, and the duty to do everything possible to prevent genocide. Both are established principles of international law. But I did not support Hezbollah per se, and would not vote for it were I Lebanese, because it is an openly Islamist organisation and I am opposed to theocratic rule and religious legal codes.

    Being in Lebanon did however allow me to overcome some of the gulf of my cultural understanding. The practice of calling those killed by Israel “martyrs” and frequently referring to them as such in conversation, is alien to a Western ear where the word has largely outdated religious connotations.

    When you live amongst a community where everybody has friends or relatives who have been killed in the decades-long aggression of Israel, the revering of the fallen as martyrs, and their omnipresence in everyday thought, starts to make much more sense.

    Similarly to Western eyes the widespread display of large images of the “martyrs” is peculiar. These are along every roadside and atop every ruin. There are always posters at the site where the person was killed, and frequently dozens of other posters of that individual at sites of importance to them.

    I overcame my incomprehension of this practice by thinking of it in reference to my own culture, that these were posters of people put up to mark where they fought and died to defend their wee bit hill and glen. In those terms it made sense to me.

    I am extremely conscious that religious faith has played a very positive role in both Palestine and South Lebanon in enabling people to endure the unendurable and to maintain Resistance against impossible odds. But it is not possible to ignore the fact that there remain substantial differences between my world view and an Islamist world view.

    This has been brought into urgent focus by the attitude of many Sunni Muslims to the overthrow of Assad in Syria. In my world view, this has been a disaster for the Palestinians. It has seriously and perhaps permanently damaged the flow of arms and other resources to Hezbollah, the Palestinians’ most important ally. And it has enabled the Greater Israel project to expand substantially into Syria.

    Try now to imagine that you are a Sunni Muslim scholar who believes that only by becoming Sunni Muslim can people obey God. You believe that the benefit to mankind of bringing Sunni Muslim rule to most of Syria outweighs the loss of part of Syria to Israel. You believe that Palestinian martyrs killed by Israel are going immediately to Heaven anyway, so in spiritual terms there is no real loss to the “martyrs”.

    That really is the position of many of the leaders of the Saudi- and Gulf-sponsored Muslim religious community. Just like there are a great many shades of Christian, there are a great many shades of Islam and there are many Muslims, including Sunni Muslims, who would not share that viewpoint. But to a religious Islamist it makes perfect sense.

    I cannot find it again because it was deep in replies on a thread, but I had a very interesting exchange with a Muslim intellectual on Twitter on precisely this topic. He accused me of “orientalism” for denigrating an Eastern spiritual viewpoint in favour of a Western secularist narrative, in seeing the installation of HTS as a reverse for Palestine. He pointed out that Hamas, a fellow Sunni Islamist movement, had welcomed the triumph of HTS.

    The exchange was welcome for its honesty and intellectual acuity. I said I did not believe Edward Said would have welcomed the accompanying expansion of Israel into Syria or cutting off of supplies to Hezbollah. He called in a nephew of Said to bolster his view that my viewpoint is orientalist.

    I have thought about this deeply; I do not think my viewpoint can fairly be described as orientalist. The truth is that all mainstream Western thought would have entirely concurred with the view that the expansion of rule by a particular religious sect was more important than associated temporal reverses that did not affect the faith of the people: but Western thought was exactly that 500 years ago.

    I do not see my view as orientalist. I see it as anti-medievalist.

    The fall of the Assad regime was deeply desired by Western neoliberals and Zionists in order to replace it with a Western democratic model, and they are desperately pretending that is what they have got in al-Jolani. As atrocities against Shia, Alaouites and Christians in Syria mount, the one thing that cannot be disputed is that al-Jolani is steadfastly Zionist, as he allows Israel daily to occupy more of Syria and destroy more of its infrastructure, without a single shot fired in response.

    There is no doubt that the position of the Resistance to an expansionist apartheid Israeli colonial project has worsened considerably since my arrival in Lebanon in October. While Israel could not progress a ground offensive, the almost total absence of any air defences for Lebanon meant it could murder and destroy with impunity from the air.

    Israel embarked on a campaign of devastation of purely civilian areas by aerial bombardment. Of that I am an eye witness. I can say from personal inspection that the claims that the tens of thousands of homes destroyed had any military use are a massive lie.

    With no defence against a relentless bombing campaign, and with most of their leadership eliminated, Hezbollah were obliged to accede to a suicidally unbalanced “ceasefire agreement”. It is plain on the actual face of the agreement that only one side will cease fire.

    All Lebanese groups are to cease fire without qualification whereas Israel is only to cease “offensive” operations. Israel of course claims all its attacks as defensive. This is absolute nonsense, but despite over 500 violations of the ceasefire agreement, killing hundreds of people, Israel has not been held accountable because Hezbollah acceded to a ceasefire guaranteed by a “Mechanism” which is chaired by a United States General.

    I think my discussion on this point with the UN Spokesman in Lebanon was extremely important, especially where he explicitly states that the Ceasefire Agreement was drafted by the USA. This link takes you to the key point in the interview.

    The members of the “Mechanism” overseeing the ceasefire are the United States, France, Israel (sic), and the Lebanese government of General Aoun, a total US puppet.

    Furthermore while the Ceasefire Agreement provides for a zone south of the Litani river from which Hezbollah must remove its weapons, it also calls for Hezbollah disarmament throughout the whole of Lebanon, which the Israelis and Americans have used to justify numerous continuing Israeli strikes in the Bekaa Valley, the Syrian border and even Beirut.

    Hezbollah are not a formal party to the Agreement but it was sanctioned by them before signature. Personally I find it difficult to imagine that Nasrallah would ever have accepted such a position.

    At the same time, Hezbollah’s domestic political position has been also greatly weakened. They were obliged to accept effectively the US imposition of General Aoun as President, which they had been resisting for over two years. They also then found themselves accepting his nomination of the openly anti-Hezbollah Nawaf Salam as Prime Minister.

    I referred earlier to Lebanon’s “confessional” constitutional arrangements, and said I would give more detail. The President must be a Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni and the Speaker of Parliament a Shiite.

    But it does not stop there. The governing agreement specifies the division of ministerial positions too. Not only between Sunni, Shia and Christian, but to include several other groupings, of which the best known is Druze and there are others, particularly various specific sects of Christianity.

    Hezbollah has operated through the Amal movement in providing the Shiite ministers, but it is a key fact that it has always had important allies among Christian anti-Israeli occupation factions who have filled important ministerial posts.

    The loss of Hezbollah power within Lebanon is to be found within the detail of all these ministries. In claiming to appoint a “technocratic”, apolitical administration, Aoun and Salam have in fact excluded most of Hezbollah’s support.

    It is in practice almost impossible to find a Shiite in Lebanon who is not pro-Hezbollah, but Aoun and Salam have certainly done their best. More pertinently, they have almost totally excluded Hezbollah and anti-Zionist sympathisers from the ministerial representation of Sunni and the assorted minority and smaller Christian groups, while simultaneously boosting the de facto influence of the fascist Lebanese Forces sympathisers.

    Hezbollah has not been this politically weak in the Lebanese institutions for 20 years, which is why the show of mass popular support at Nasrallah’s funeral was so important to them. However, given Lebanon’s electoral system with its deliberate Christian bias, piling up popular support is of little use to Hezbollah electorally. There are Christian MPs in parliament elected with under 500 votes, while Hezbollah could put on another 100,000 votes without significantly increasing their representation.

    Crucially the “Ministerial statement” of the aims of the new government excluded resistance to Israel as an objective – a key change – and specified the state’s monopoly on carrying arms, a reference to the full disarmament of Hezbollah.

    Finally, of course, Hezbollah’s archenemies, HTS, are now in power in Damascus. Hezbollah fought off repeated Al Qaeda/Al Nusra/ISIS attempts to invade Lebanon and also intervened against these forces within Syria. Al-Jolani coming to power represents a major disruption to Hezbollah’s supply lines from Iran.

    The US and Israel are attempting to turn up this pressure by frequent aerial attacks on border crossings from Syria and on Hezbollah individuals within Lebanon. Recently they took the additional measure of banning pilgrimage flights to and from Iran, which greatly angered the Shia community and was aimed at cutting off a route for physical supplies of cash.

    What is uncertain is what secret accommodations General Aoun may have reached with Hezbollah, over whether their physical disarmament throughout Lebanon under SCR 1701 and the Ceasefire Agreement is a genuine process or a show. Politically, Aoun and Salam have strongly planted their banner for real disarmament of Hezbollah.

    What appears beyond dispute is that the Israelis receive a continued flow of intelligence from Lebanese sources on Hezbollah personnel movements and sites, and the US-sanctioned intense Israeli bombing campaign shows no sign of abating.

    We can add to this sad fact that Israel was able to use the Ceasefire Agreement to occupy parts of Southern Lebanon which Hezbollah had successfully defended during the war, and that Israel has destroyed by demolition thousands of homes and other civilian buildings under cover of the ceasefire to add to those destroyed during the war.

    Indeed Israel demolishes more buildings in Southern Lebanon every day still, and has now destroyed over 90,000 buildings in Lebanon in total. As I predicted, Israel is building 5 permanent military outposts in Southern Lebanon and has made plain it has no intention of leaving.

    The US puppet government in Beirut, like the US puppet government in Damascus, plainly has no intention of any realistic action against de facto Israeli annexation of its land. While Hezbollah has signalled a reversion to past tactics of guerilla warfare, I have serious doubts about both its current capacity, both political and military.

    Of the enduring heroism of the people of South Lebanon I have no doubt, and I also have no doubt that as Israel is maintaining an illegal occupation, their legal right of armed resistance in unimpeachable.

    It is however foolish not to acknowledge that with Israel expanding into Lebanon and Syria, with US puppet regimes in Syria and Damascus, with genocide about to restart in Gaza and spreading into the West Bank, and with an apparently crazed level of open Zionist support from Trump that is in fact only more honest than the pro-Genocide positions of the large majority of Western governments, the current position looks bleak indeed.

    The only grounds for hope is that I cannot imagine that the people of the region are going to tolerate Israeli collaborationist regimes in Damascus, Beirut and Ramallah much longer. Indeed with slight variations you might say the same of the entire Arab world.

    I hope you will forgive this being a very personal post as I try to make sense of my experiences and assimilate much new knowledge into my view of the world.

    I went to Lebanon knowing literally nobody in the country, and with an introduction to just one person who helped us through immigration, but whose assistance thereafter did not work out. I did so accompanied by Niels as cinematographer, despite my never really having worked in video before, and my not being very accomplished at it. On top of which we had no financial resources except for our crowdfunding, which was not going well.

    I now realise just how deeply ignorant I was about Lebanon before arriving.

    The truth is, I wanted to go to Gaza but could find no way to get in. I had then had applied to Israel for the required permission from COGAT to enter the West Bank, but had been refused. So Lebanon was the one place under Israeli aggression where I could actually hope to get in to document and report on Israeli atrocities.

    This venture was also born out of a rather desperate feeling that I must try to do something. I had been involved in the genesis of the ICJ case and in international campaigning for Palestine, but felt so helpless watching murdered children in Gaza every day on social media, that I felt compelled to do more.

    With war against the Israeli invaders raging in Lebanon, I admit I also had a compulsion to share at least some of the danger of those putting their lives at stake. In truth, I felt something of a fraud to be writing about it from home if I was not prepared to experience it.

    Well, at times Lebanon really was dangerous for us, but I am extremely proud of what Niels and I achieved. The six mini-documentaries reached millions of people and I think genuinely informed the Western public. I think the interview with the UN was extremely revealing and important and wish I had been able to get a rather wider audience for it. On top of which we produced numerous shorter video pieces, written articles and interviews with alternative media outlets across the globe, as well as doing a lot of Arab mainstream media.

    In the end we had to leave because it proved simply not possible to meet the substantial costs of the venture by individual subscriptions and donations, and I ran out of money. It was a bold experiment in being able to do the kind of real, on-the-ground journalism that legacy media has abandoned, but to continue would require more fundraising ability or organisational ability than I possess.

    There is no doubt that we suffered – and still suffer – massive social media suppression, and this limitation of reach is what crippled fundraising efforts. Essentially we were asking the same people for donations again and again, which is both impractical and, I admit, I found personally difficult and undignified.

    So I shall continue reporting from my base in Scotland, travelling the world as occasion demands. My knowledge has been hugely expanded by my time in Beirut. I will now largely revert to written rather than video format. The struggle for justice goes on, and my commitment to it remains.

    ———————————

    My reporting and advocacy work has no source of finance at all other than your contributions to keep us going. We get nothing from any state nor any billionaire.

    Anybody is welcome to republish and reuse, including in translation.

    Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up new methods of payment including a Patreon account and a Substack account if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post. You can if you wish subscribe free to Substack and use the email notifications as a trigger to come for this blog and read the articles for free. I am determined to maintain free access for those who cannot afford a subscription.




    Click HERE TO DONATE if you do not see the Donate button above

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     PayPal address for one-off donations: craigmurray1710@btinternet.com

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    MURRAY CJ
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    The post Islamic Resistance Movements and Israel appeared first on Craig Murray.

  43. Site: Craig Murray
    3 months 2 weeks ago
    Author: craig

    On 26 January, 26 unarmed civilians were shot dead by Israel and 147 wounded in a massacre observed by heavily armed UN Peacekeepers who did not intervene. I asked the UN the very hard questions which nobody else is asking them.

    The civilians were simply attempting to return to their homes in accordance with both UNSCR 1701 and the current ceasefire agreement, and indeed UNIFIL has a specific mandate under 1701 to assist displaced people to return.

    So what has gone wrong with UNIFIL? Is this Srebrenica syndrome? What is the purpose of the heavy weaponry deployed by the UN’s best-equipped peacekeeping force, if it can never be fired? Why is the UN failing to monitor the hundreds of Israeli breaches of the Ceasefire Agreement? Why is the UN serving on a committee under a US General?

    These and other questions I put to UNIFIL spokesman Andrea Tenenti. I did so in my usual, I hope courteous, manner. The result is a fascinating conversation which I believe is an extremely important piece of documentation of institutional failure to confront Israeli and US aggression at a critical time for the entire world.

    ———————————

    My reporting and advocacy work has no source of finance at all other than your contributions to keep us going. We get nothing from any state nor any billionaire.

    Anybody is welcome to republish and reuse, including in translation.

    Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up new methods of payment including a GoFundMe appeal and a Patreon account.

    I have now also started a Substack account if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post. You can if you wish subscribe free to Substack and use the email notifications as a trigger to come for this blog and read the articles for free. I am determined to maintain free access for those who cannot afford a subscription.




    Click HERE TO DONATE if you do not see the Donate button above

    Subscriptions to keep this blog going are gratefully received.

    Choose subscription amount from dropdown box:

    Recurring Donations 3 Pounds : £3.00 GBP – monthly5 Pounds : £5.00 GBP – monthly10 Pounds : £10.00 GBP – monthly15 Pounds : £15.00 GBP – monthly20 Pounds : £20.00 GBP – monthly30 Pounds : £30.00 GBP – monthly50 Pounds : £50.00 GBP – monthly70 Pounds : £70.00 GBP – monthly100 Pounds : £100.00 GBP – monthly



     

    PayPal address for one-off donations: craigmurray1710@btinternet.com

    Alternatively by bank transfer or standing order:

    Account name
    MURRAY CJ
    Account number 3 2 1 5 0 9 6 2
    Sort code 6 0 – 4 0 – 0 5
    IBAN GB98NWBK60400532150962
    BIC NWBKGB2L
    Bank address NatWest, PO Box 414, 38 Strand, London, WC2H 5JB

    Bitcoin: bc1q3sdm60rshynxtvfnkhhqjn83vk3e3nyw78cjx9
    Ethereum/ERC-20: 0x764a6054783e86C321Cb8208442477d24834861a

    The post UN Peacekeepers Watch Civilians Massacred appeared first on Craig Murray.

  44. Site: Craig Murray
    3 months 3 weeks ago
    Author: craig

    Four UN Special Rapporteurs have written jointly to the UK government demanding explanation of its inappropriate persecution of journalists and political activists under the Terrorism Act. They state that those persecuted:

    appear to have no credible connection to “terrorist” or “hostile” activity

    The cases taken up by the United Nations are those of Johanna Ross (Ganyukova), John Laughland, Kit Klarenberg, Craig Murray (yes, me), Richard Barnard and Richard Medhurst. The UN letter is signed by:

    Ben Saul
    Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms while countering terrorism

    Irene Khan
    Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of the right to freedom of opinion and expression

    Gina Romero
    Special Rapporteur on the rights to freedom of peaceful assembly and of association

    Ana Brian Nougrères
    Special Rapporteur on the right to privacy

    Under this UN special procedure, the letter is sent to the government in question which has sixty days to respond. This letter was sent by the UN to Starmer’s government on 4 December. No reply having been received, it has now been published.

    It is worth noting that even with the UN letter on its desk and ignored, Starmer’s government in fact stepped up the use of the Terrorism Act against pro-Palestinian journalists and activists in this period. The cases of Asa Winstanley, Sarah Wilkinson and Tony Greenstein, among others, happened after the letter was drafted.

    I should be clear that I was, working with Justice for All International (for which we had a crowdfunder last year in relation to the Assange case at the UN), heavily involved in assisting with preparation of this initiative, and made three visits to the UN in Geneva on the subject together with Sharof Azizov, and on one occasion Richard Medhurst. Your subscriptions and donations to this blog are the only funding I have to make such activity possible, so thank you.

    The letter is in two parts. The first consists of an outline of the information received by the UN on each case and a request for a response from the British government.

    But the second part is a devastating critique of the UK’s terrorism laws and their inappropriate use to stifle dissent and freedom of expression. This legal analysis on lack of conformity with the UK’s human rights obligations is not dependent on any of the particular cases cited.

    While we do not wish to prejudge the accuracy of these allegations, we
    express our concern regarding the potential misapplication of counter-terrorism laws
    against journalists and activists who were critical of the policies and practices of
    certain governments, which may unjustifiably interfere with the rights to freedom of
    expression and opinion and participation in public life, lead to self-censorship and
    have a serious chilling effect on the media, civil society and legitimate political and
    public discourse.
    We are particularly concerned by the broad scope of section 12(1A) and
    schedule 7 of the Terrorism Act 2000 and schedule 3 of the Counter-Terrorism and
    Border Security Act 2019…

    We are concerned at the vagueness and overbreadth of the offence in
    section 12(1A) of the Terrorism Act 2000, which criminalizes expressing an opinion
    or belief that is supportive of a proscribed organisation and being reckless as to
    whether it encouraged support for that organisation…

    The term “support” is undefined in the Act and in our view is vague and
    overbroad and may unjustifiably criminalize legitimate expression.

    …the meaning of expressing support for a
    proscribed organization is ambiguous and could capture speech that is neither
    necessary nor proportionate to criminalize, including legitimate debates about the de-
    proscription of an organization and disagreement with a government’s decision to
    proscribe…

    We note that there is no requirement that the expression of support relate to
    the commission of violent terrorist acts by the organization. As such, the offence may
    unjustifiably criminalize the expression of opinion or belief that is not rationally,
    proximately or causally related to actual terrorist violence or harms. The offence
    further does not require any likelihood that the support will assist the organization in
    any way. It goes well beyond the accepted restrictions on freedom of expression under
    international law concerning the prohibition of incitement to violence or hate speech…

    We note that some proscribed organizations are de facto authorities
    performing a diversity of civilian functions, including governance, humanitarian and
    medical activities, and provision of social services, public utilities and education.
    Expressing support for any of these ordinary civilian activities by the organization
    could constitute expressing support for it, no matter how remote such expression is
    from support for any violent terrorist acts by the group…

    Further, the section 12(1A) offence does not require the person to intend to
    encourage others to support the organization…

    We are further concerned that the absence of legal certainty may have a
    chilling effect on the media, public debate, activism, and the activities of civil society,
    in a context where there is a heightened public interest in discussion of the conflict in
    the Middle East, including the conduct of the parties and the underlying conditions
    conducive to violence in the region. We are further concerned that a person could be
    prosecuted for isolated remarks or sentences that mischaracterize the overall position
    of the individual, or despite the individual’s intentions or continued and express
    disavowal of terrorist violence, given the subjectivity and contested meanings of
    certain expressions in relation to sensitive or controversial political conflicts…

    We encourage your Excellency’s Government to repeal section 12(1A), or
    otherwise to amend it to protect freedom of expression, and to develop prosecutorial
    guidelines for its appropriate use to avoid the unnecessary or disproportionate
    incrimination of political dissent…

    We are concerned that police powers at UK border areas and ports under
    schedule 7 may be unjustifiably used against journalists and activists who are critical
    of Western foreign policy. We note that the examination of each journalist named in
    this communication under schedule 7 was premeditated, and that the examination,
    confiscation of devices, and DNA prints were conducted despite the apparent absence
    of a credible “terrorist” connection. We are concerned that such powers carry a risk of
    intimidating, deterring, and disrupting the ability of journalists to report on topics of
    public importance without self-censorship…

    We are concerned that the distinction between “examination” and “detention”
    under the Act is artificial given the punitive sanctions for of non-compliance, and that
    this distinction may be inconsistent with the accepted meaning of “arrest” or
    “detention” under article 9 of the ICCPR. We are further concerned that the extensive
    powers authorised under section 2 do not require any degree of suspicion that a person
    falls within the meaning of “terrorist” at section 40(1)(b). The extreme breadth of
    such power enables unnecessary, disproportionate, arbitrary or discriminatory
    interference with an individual’s rights, including freedom from arbitrary detention,
    freedom of movement under article 12(1) of the ICCPR, and the rights to leave and
    enter one’s own country under article 12(2) and (4) of the ICCPR…

    we refer your
    Excellency’s government to article 17 of the ICCPR which requires that “[n]o one
    shall be subjected to arbitrary or unlawful interference with [their] privacy, family,
    home or correspondence, nor to unlawful attacks on [their] honour and reputation”.
    We note that several journalists detained under schedule 7 have had their electronic
    devices confiscated for a significant period of time and have not been updated on the
    use, retention or destruction of their data, or advised in relation to their personal data
    protection rights.

    We urge your Excellency’s Government to consider the growing number of
    instances where schedule 7 may have been inappropriately directed towards
    journalists and activists, and to consider addressing this through amendments to the
    legislation, guidance for relevant officials, and training of border security officers. We
    further encourage your Excellency’s Government to address the judiciary’s concerns
    regarding the retention of electronic data

    It is a stunning letter well worth reading in full; the legal language and diplomatic formality does not disguise the extreme concern of the UN at the extraordinary authoritarian attack on freedom of speech in the UK.

    I might reveal that some of the UN Special Rapporteurs who signed were very sceptical of the issue until studying the details. One told me personally they were too busy to look at such a minor problem; their attitude changed completely when faced with papers on the cases involved.

    There is no sign the UN has given the Starmer government pause; human rights are extremely low on their agenda. Support for Israel and the crushing of pro-Palestinian sentiment, or of any criticism of western foreign policy, is extremely high on their agenda.

    The legislation concerned has been brought into disrepute by the widespread support in public from Establishment figures for HTS in Syria, even though it remains a proscribed organisation and any expression of support is an offence under the Terrorism Act. To my knowledge, not one person has been charged or even questioned for supporting the HTS coup in Syria.

    This occurred after the UN letter, but they could now mention extreme arbitrariness in police and prosecutorial application of the law in their critique. The Terrorism Act is being used to criminalise peaceful criticism of western foreign policy. There can be no doubt about that at all.

    It also remains the case that there has not been one reference in UK mainstream media to the persecution of dissident journalists using terrorism laws. I don’t expect the prostitute stenographers to power to change that by covering this censure from the United Nations.

    ———————————

    My reporting and advocacy work has no source of finance at all other than your contributions to keep us going. We get nothing from any state nor any billionaire.

    Anybody is welcome to republish and reuse, including in translation.

    Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up new methods of payment including a GoFundMe appeal and a Patreon account.

    I have now also started a Substack account if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post. You can if you wish subscribe free to Substack and use the email notifications as a trigger to come for this blog and read the articles for free. I am determined to maintain free access for those who cannot afford a subscription.




    Click HERE TO DONATE if you do not see the Donate button above

    Subscriptions to keep this blog going are gratefully received.

    Choose subscription amount from dropdown box:

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    PayPal address for one-off donations: craigmurray1710@btinternet.com

    Alternatively by bank transfer or standing order:

    Account name
    MURRAY CJ
    Account number 3 2 1 5 0 9 6 2
    Sort code 6 0 – 4 0 – 0 5
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    BIC NWBKGB2L
    Bank address Natwest, PO Box 414, 38 Strand, London, WC2H 5JB

    Bitcoin: bc1q3sdm60rshynxtvfnkhhqjn83vk3e3nyw78cjx9
    Ethereum/ERC-20: 0x764a6054783e86C321Cb8208442477d24834861a

    The post United Nations Censures UK Over Abuse of Terrorism Act Against Journalists and Activists appeared first on Craig Murray.

  45. Site: Craig Murray
    3 months 4 weeks ago
    Author: craig

    We could very easily – in fact more easily – have made these mini-documentaries featuring the bodies of children slaughtered by Israel and the hideous aspect of the maiming of tens of thousands, or focusing on the tears of the bereaved and orphaned.

    We chose to go a different way and make that unavoidably implicit, but not shown, in the interests of attracting and engaging the widest audience possible.

    Yet I believe what we do show highlights Israeli barbarity and makes it stark in another way. I would be grateful for your thoughts.

    ———————–

    To be blunt, our three months in Lebanon have made a significant financial loss. I am delighted with the output of six mini-documentaries and numerous short video reports and articles, some of which individually had millions of viewers. But to date the model of reader-sponsored real overseas journalism is not proven nor stable.

    If you have not yet contributed financially, I should be grateful if you could do so. If you have contributed, perhaps you could help further by encouraging others to do so. I would as always stress I do not want anybody to contribute if it causes them the slightest financial hardship.

    My reporting and advocacy work has no source of finance at all other than your contributions to keep us going. We get nothing from any state nor any billionaire.

    Anybody is welcome to republish and reuse, including in translation.

    Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up new methods of payment including a GoFundMe appeal and a Patreon account.

    I have now also started a Substack account if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post. You can if you wish subscribe free to Substack and use the email notifications as a trigger to come for this blog and read the articles for free. I am determined to maintain free access for those who cannot afford a subscription.



    Subscriptions to keep this blog going are gratefully received.

    Choose subscription amount from dropdown box:

    Recurring Donations 3 Pounds : £3.00 GBP – monthly5 Pounds : £5.00 GBP – monthly10 Pounds : £10.00 GBP – monthly15 Pounds : £15.00 GBP – monthly20 Pounds : £20.00 GBP – monthly30 Pounds : £30.00 GBP – monthly50 Pounds : £50.00 GBP – monthly70 Pounds : £70.00 GBP – monthly100 Pounds : £100.00 GBP – monthly



     

    PayPal address for one-off donations: craigmurray1710@btinternet.com

    Alternatively by bank transfer or standing order:

    Account name
    MURRAY CJ
    Account number 3 2 1 5 0 9 6 2
    Sort code 6 0 – 4 0 – 0 5
    IBAN GB98NWBK60400532150962
    BIC NWBKGB2L
    Bank address Natwest, PO Box 414, 38 Strand, London, WC2H 5JB

    Bitcoin: bc1q3sdm60rshynxtvfnkhhqjn83vk3e3nyw78cjx9
    Ethereum/ERC-20: 0x764a6054783e86C321Cb8208442477d24834861a

     

    The post Israel Slaughters and Destroys in Southern Lebanon appeared first on Craig Murray.

  46. Site: Padre Peregrino
    8 months 2 weeks ago
    Author: Father David Nix
    -Donate: https://www.padreperegrino.org/donate/ -Telegram: https://t.me/padreperegrino -Music bumper: Chanticleer performing Biebl's 'Ave Maria': https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7C-VXZVSTw Gospel: And when morning was come, all the chief priests and ancients of the people took counsel against Jesus, that they might put him to death.  And they brought him bound, and delivered him to Pontius Pilate the governor. Then Judas, who betrayed [...]
  47. Site: Padre Peregrino
    8 months 2 weeks ago
    Author: Father David Nix
    -Donate: https://www.padreperegrino.org/donate/ -Telegram: https://t.me/padreperegrino -Music bumper: Chanticleer performing Biebl's 'Ave Maria': https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7C-VXZVSTw Gospel: And when morning was come, all the chief priests and ancients of the people took counsel against Jesus, that they might put him to death.  And they brought him bound, and delivered him to Pontius Pilate the governor. Then Judas, who betrayed [...]
  48. Site: Padre Peregrino
    8 months 2 weeks ago
    Author: Father David Nix
    We discuss euthanasia, living wills, ordinary vs extraordinary care, hospice, health care proxies and narcotics.  Watch on Rumble, also embedded from Rumble below:
  49. Site: Padre Peregrino
    8 months 2 weeks ago
    Author: Father David Nix
    We discuss euthanasia, living wills, ordinary vs extraordinary care, hospice, health care proxies and narcotics.  Watch on Rumble, also embedded from Rumble below:
  50. Site: Padre Peregrino
    8 months 2 weeks ago
    Author: Father David Nix
    Above left is St. Mary of Egypt and above right is St. Benedict Labre.  Both were single celibates wandering around without community who later became canonized.  It is not the ideal to go through life without a family or convent, but it is possible to become a saint in such unusual circumstances.  This article is [...]

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