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Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Lawmakers in the Arizona House of Representatives passed two bills that could allow the state to adopt a reserve using Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.

In a third reading on April 28 of Senate Bill 1025 (SB1025), a proposal to amend Arizona’s statutes to allow for a strategic BTC reserve, 31 members of the Arizona House voted in favor of the bill, with 25 opposed. A similar bill, SB1373, to establish a state-level digital assets reserve, passed with 37 lawmakers in favor and 19 voting nay.

“This bill basically takes the approach that probably 15 other states are considering the same legislation nationwide that allows the treasurer to invest up to 10% into, probably mainly Bitcoin but other things as well,” said State Representative Jeff Weninger on SB1025.

“I think this probably would start as a ‘may’ for the foreseeable future, but as things continue to pivot towards Bitcoin and these things, would have that already in place in the future.”

Voting for SB1025 in the Arizona House of Representatives on April 28. Source: Arizona State Legislature

The approvals bring the bills closer than any other state-level initiative in the US to getting a cryptocurrency or Bitcoin strategic reserve signed into law. Similar legislation proposed in New Hampshire passed the state’s House in April and is expected to head to the Senate for a full floor vote soon.

Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs announced on April 17 that she intended to veto any bill until lawmakers had a “serious, bipartisan funding solution that protects healthcare for Arizonans with disabilities.” However, with the passage of such legislation on April 24, the governor could be more open to signing SB1025 or SB1373 into law.

Federal plans to establish a national crypto reserve

The state-level efforts to create Bitcoin reserves come amid a push from US President Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers to do the same in the federal government. 

Trump signed an executive order in March with a proposal for a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” and a “Digital Asset Stockpile.”

Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, a crypto advocate, proposed that Congress pass legislation that could allow the US government to hold more than 1 million BTC, in part through crypto seized through civil or criminal forfeiture. Some lawmakers have suggested Lummis’s bill was an attempt by Congress to codify Trump’s executive order into law.

One month after the BLS reported that in February the labor market reverted to its deteriorating trendline, when the US had 7.568 million job openings (missing estimates of 7.655 million), a drop from the 7.762 million in January (revised from 7.740 million), and down 877,000 from the prior year, moments ago the latest JOLTS report showed that in March the labor market continued to deteriorate, and the number of job openings declined again, this time by 288K, from a downward revised 7.480MM to 7.192MM, the lowest since September 2024.

According to the BLS, the drop in job openings was across most sectors, with an emphasis of construction, transportation, private education and real estate. The lone increase was reported in finance and insurance.

However, the biggest surprise was precisely where we noted last month that something doesn't make sense. 

Recall last month we said that "as always, there is a reason to doubt this particular set of numbers - just as there was reason to doubt every set of numbers from Biden - because according to the February JOLTS report, the number of Federal Government job openings was essentially flat both sequentially and YoY."

Well, not anymore, and in March, the number of government job openings plunged by 36K, from 134K to just 98K, the first sub-100K print since the covid crash, some five years ago!

In  the context of the broader jobs report, in February the number of job openings was 109 more than the number of unemployed workers (which the BLS reported was 7.083 million), down from 428K the previous month, and the lowest differentials since the covid crash.

Still, as noted previously, until this number turns negative, the US labor market is not demand constrained, and a recession has never started in a period when there were more job openings than unemployed workers.

Said otherwise, in January the number of job openings to unemployed rose modestly to 1.1, the highest since last May if on the low end of the pre-covid range in 2018-2019.

While the job openings data was a miss and a drop, what softened the blow is that for the the number of hires unexpectedly rose to 5.411 million from 5.370 million, the highest since last October, and hardly screaming collapse in the labor market. Meanwhile, the number of workers quitting their jobs - a sign of confidence in finding a better paying job elsewhere - rose again, and in March hit 3.332 million, up from 3.250 million and the highest since July 2024.

How to make sense of this continued deterioration in the labor market, and especially in the government sector?

Well, as we explained in "Here's What Trump Needs To Do For Powell To Quickly Cut Rates" to get the Fed to cut rates,
"all Trump has to do is simply maintain the current level of sharp layoffs - i.e., fully unleash Musk's DOGE - in the parasitic government sector which will more than offset gains everywhere and lead to a spike in total unemployment, and Powell will have no choice but to finally capitulate."

And judging by the sudden plunge in government job openings, don't be surprised if Friday's jobs report shows a huge drop in the number of actual government workers which pushes the broader unemployment rate higher and forces Powell out of his stupor.

Following yesterday's slump in a survey of Texas Manufacturing firms, the Dallas Fed released their survey of Texas Services sector firms today, and it was just a big a shitshow.

Perceptions of broader business conditions deteriorated further in April. The general business activity index dropped eight points to -19.4. In addition, outlooks worsened as the company outlook index retreated to a 34-month low of -15.5. The outlook uncertainty index jumped 13 points to 40.5 - its highest level since mid-2022. 

Respondents’ expectations regarding future business activity continued to weaken in April.

Under the hood, we saw further stagflationary signals with revenue forecast plunging as prices soar...

Tariffs were top of mind for many, just as with the Texas Manufacturing survey, as respondents broadly speaking reflected: "Nothing is getting better."

• [Our concerns are] tariffs, tariffs, tariffs.

• We have high levels of anxiety as a result of the fast-moving changes in government restructuring and tariff policies. Although we are hoping for the best end results, the overall business environment is very volatile.

• Our major concern is the effect of tariffs.

• [We are concerned about] tariff uncertainty and price increases, mostly related to products from China; plus, we are experiencing longer lead times for orders.

• Potential supply chain impacts of proposed tariffs are being evaluated industrywide.

• All of the uncertainty is slowing private business.

• Tariffs are bringing a high level of uncertainty to our business. It is hard to tell what will happen in one week, let alone six months

• The on-again, off-again psychodrama in Washington with respect to tariffs is upsetting to almost the entirety of the business community. If the unprecedented tariffs continue, the commercial real estate and construction industries will slow to a halt soon.

• The current tariffs in effect will increase our cost of goods due to increased produce prices and certain imported proteins.

• The almost daily shifts on tariffs create havoc.

• People are acting almost in a panic about the economy.

• Tariffs [are a concern].

• We are highly concerned about a downturn in activity from a recession caused by the tariffs.

• [We are] devastated. We are a trucking company specializing in transporting international shipping containers, and there is no other word that captures what we are facing.

• We are becoming increasingly pessimistic.

• We are experiencing an unexpected decline in business activity. I see customers becoming more price sensitive and cutting back on general expenditures.

And finally, 'chaos', 'erratic', and 'turmoil' at The White House summed up many people's perspectives:

• President Donald Trump has a very chaotic style of dealing with the economy.

• Erratic leadership style in Washington has led to high levels of uncertainty impacting decision making and spending.

• The insane chaos that is running the White House makes it impossible to plan anything.

• Daily instability in D.C. continues to create chaos.

• The randomness of our current president is causing paralysis.

• Uncertainty in the markets is a killer. Erratic behavior of leadership is even worse.

• We are devoting so much time to mitigating the chaos this administration is creating that we have little time left to run our business.

Not a pretty picture... and remember, this is Texans.

However, we did find one silver lining comment:

• I'm not too worried about the new tariffs. I think other countries will soon be negotiating with President Trump, and six months from now the national discussion will have moved on.

Is there hope?

"Consumers are on the fence. This will turn eventually."

GM stock dipped slightly Tuesday morning after the company pulled its annual profit forecast, citing significant uncertainty created by President Trump's evolving trade policies, according to Bloomberg, WSJ and multiple other outlets. 

Despite reporting strong first-quarter results, the Detroit automaker warned investors not to rely on previous guidance due to the potentially "significant" impact of automotive tariffs.

"We're telling folks not to rely on the prior guidance, and we'll update when we have more information around tariffs," GM Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said during a media call. "Given the evolving nature of the situation, we believe the future impact of tariffs could be significant."

The company's decision comes as the White House reportedly moves to soften the impact of auto tariffs, preventing them from stacking atop existing duties like those on steel and aluminum. According to The Wall Street Journal, the administration will allow automakers to be reimbursed for overlapping tariffs, a change expected to be retroactive and officially announced before Trump's rally in Michigan Tuesday evening.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed a deal had been struck, though details remained scarce. The adjustments could offer temporary relief to domestic automakers, including GM, which assemble cars in the U.S. but rely on imported parts.

Nevertheless, GM’s leadership is urging caution. "We're going to look for more clarity before we get into any forward projections of the tariff exposure," Jacobson said.

In January, GM had forecast net income between $11.2 billion and $12.5 billion for 2025, excluding tariff impacts. It also projected adjusted pretax profit between $13.7 billion and $15.7 billion. That forecast is now shelved.

First-quarter results showed cracks forming. GM’s net income fell 6.6% to $2.8 billion, dragged down by weaker sales of highly profitable trucks and SUVs, along with rising warranty and labor costs. Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) slipped 9.8% to $3.49 billion, with EBIT-adjusted margins falling from 9% a year ago to 7.9%.

Revenue, however, rose 2.3% to $44 billion, surpassing analysts’ estimates of $43 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.78, also ahead of expectations. GM credited a last-minute surge in car buying in March, as consumers sought to beat potential price hikes from new tariffs that began earlier this month.

While the results slightly exceeded Wall Street's cautious predictions, they revealed growing challenges for a company that has ridden high profits in recent years. Jacobson pointed to an "unusually strong" first quarter in 2024 following the resolution of a United Auto Workers strike, suggesting 2025’s first quarter suffered by comparison.

Earlier this month, GM reported U.S. sales jumped 17% year-over-year to 693,363 units, led by strength in trucks and EVs across its Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick, and GMC brands. Full-size pickups, particularly the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra, delivered their best first-quarter sales since 2007.

Nonetheless, GM is bracing for a turbulent year ahead. The company delayed its analysts' call until Thursday, an unusual step reflecting the fast-changing policy environment.

Chair and CEO Mary Barra, in a statement, said, "We appreciate the productive conversations with the President and his Administration and look forward to continuing to work together."

In the meantime, GM announced it would pause new share buybacks beyond the $2 billion plan slated for completion in the second quarter, pending greater economic clarity. It stressed there was no current need to raise additional capital.

Another day, another sentiment measure disappoints...

US consumer confidence fell in April to an almost five-year low on growing pessimism about prospects for the economy and labor market due to tariffs. The Conference Board’s gauge of confidence decreased nearly 8 points to 86, the weakest since May 2020. This was the fifth straight monthly decline, the longest such stretch since 2008. 

Worse still, consumer expectations for the next six months plunged to the lowest level since 2011, while a gauge of present conditions also fell.

“Consumer confidence declined for a fifth consecutive month in April, falling to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 

“The decline was largely driven by consumers’ expectations. The three expectation components—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future. 

Notably, the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32.1%) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession. In addition, expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations.

However, consumers’ views of the present have held up, containing the overall decline in the Index.”

Labor market conditions weakened, extending their very recent downtrend...

High financial market volatility in April pushed consumers’ views about the stock market deeper into negative territory, with 48.5% expecting stock prices to decline over the next 12 months (the highest share since October 2011). 

Meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations reached 7% in April - the highest since November 2022, when the US was experiencing extremely high inflation. 

Notably, the NYFed's measure of inflation expectations (and the market's measure of inflation expectations) are NOT screaming higher like UMICH and CONF BOARD surveys...

Finally, we note that April’s fall in confidence was broad-based across all age groups and most income groups. The decline was sharpest among consumers between 35 and 55 years old, and consumers in households earning more than $125,000 a year.

Guichard added that write-in responses on what topics are affecting views of the economy revealed that tariffs are now on top of consumers’ minds, with mentions of tariffs reaching an all-time high.

Consumers explicitly mentioned concerns about tariffs increasing prices and having negative impacts on the economy. 

Inflation and high prices remained important for consumers’ views about the economy: while the majority complained about the high cost of living, there were also some references to declines in the prices of gas and some food items.

The decline in confidence was shared across all political affiliations.

Novo Nordisk is teaming up with major telehealth companies to sell its blockbuster weight-loss drug Wegovy directly to U.S. consumers at a steep discount through its new direct-to-consumer pharmacy platform. For many, the monthly cost of Wegovy will now be more affordable than the average monthly payment for a new vehicle.

Bloomberg reported that NovoCare will begin offering Wegovy through telehealth firms Hims & Hers Health, LifeMD, and Ro. The weight-loss drug will be offered as subscription models on Hims and Ro. Hims will sell Wegovy for $599 monthly, including a membership offering clinical and nutritional support. Ro will charge $499 monthly for Wegovy, plus a $145 membership fee after the first month. Both of these monthly prices are being offered at more than 50% of the drug's retail price in the U.S. market. 

"The strategy comes as rival Eli Lilly & Co. has teamed up with telehealth firms like Ro to distribute lower-cost vials of its own obesity medication, Zepbound. Lilly doesn't have a similar partnership with Hims, which sells Zepbound independently at a premium compared to Lilly's discounted offering," Bloomberg noted. 

We noted in early March that Novo was preparing for a direct-to-consumer launch to take on Lilly's Zepbound.

Andrew Dudum, CEO and founder of Hims, said Novo's new partnership is "delivering the future of healthcare" by offering Americans affordable, breakthrough medicine that improves long-term health outcomes.

"Beyond this initial collaboration, the companies are developing a roadmap that combines Novo Nordisk's innovative medications with Hims' ability to deliver access to quality care at scale, with the goal of improving long-term outcomes for more people living with chronic disease, and doing that more affordably," said Dave Moore, Novo's executive vice president for U.S. operations. 

Last year, elevated demand for Wegovy and Zepbound led telehealth companies — including Hims and Ro — to sell compounded versions of these wonder drugs at steep discounts. 

Moore told Bloomberg that more affordable pricing and increased partnerships are a "change" for Wegovy and that "this is different than where we have been in the last couple of years." 

In markets, shares of Hims in New York surged as much as 30% in premarket trading. On the year, shares are up nearly 18% as of Monday's close. 

The short interest in Hims recently touched 34.33% of the float, or about 61 million shares short. 

The US merchandise-trade deficit unexpectedly widened in March to a record as companies continued importing goods to get ahead of tariffs.

The shortfall in goods trade grew 9.6% from a month earlier to $162 billion, Commerce Department data showed Tuesday.

Imports rose 5% to $342.7 billion, led by consumer goods, while exports increased 1.2% as firms scrambled to get ahead of President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs...

Imports of consumer goods surged 27.5%, while inbound shipments of motor vehicles and capital goods also increased.

Because this is the 'advance' data release, there is no data for individual nation trade balances or how gold imports have shifted. Remember, gold imports had been soaring through February...

...and blowing up economists' models of GDP growth.

What we do know is that gold inventories at COMEX have been falling in March, suggesting a slowdown in imports... which will juice GDP forecasts (further confounding all the PhDs)

Finally, we note that Tuesday’s Commerce Department report also showed stockpiles at wholesalers increased 0.5%. Retail inventories fell 0.1% last month, reflecting a decline at car dealers.

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced on April 23 that California had the fourth-largest economy in the world last year, overtaking Japan.

Construction workers on the site of a new development in Long Beach, Calif., on March 5, 2025. Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images

According to Newsom’s spokeswoman, Tara Gallegos, the governor used preliminary estimates of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) for 2024, issued by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Nominal GDP measures the value of goods and services for a state or country using current market prices and is not adjusted for inflation. In contrast, real GDP data is adjusted for inflation.

In addition to BEA data, Newsom also cited data released on April 22 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), ranking each country according to its GDP.

California’s GDP for 2024 was valued at $4.1 trillion by the BEA. According to the IMF, Japan’s GDP was $4.03 trillion in 2024.

In an April 23 statement, Newsom said California’s economy ranked fourth-largest internationally, behind the United States as a whole ($29.2 trillion), China ($18.7 trillion), and Germany ($4.7 trillion).

Newsom said that the state’s 6 percent economic growth in 2024 was a “faster rate than the world’s top three economies.”

The governor touted the strength of the state’s agriculture, high-tech, and manufacturing sectors.

“California isn’t just keeping pace with the world—we’re setting the pace,” Newsom said in a statement. “Our economy is thriving because we invest in people, prioritize sustainability, and believe in the power of innovation.”

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks in Los Angeles on Sept. 25, 2024. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

University of Southern California professor of business management Michael Mische, however, said California’s ranking has more to do with how other economies did last year.

“California’s number four position has more to do with the poorly performing ... economies of Japan and Germany than it does with any in-state specific initiatives,” Mische told The Epoch Times.

California’s economy grew by 13.3 percent from 2019 to 2024, while Japan’s economy saw only a 0.9 percent increase and Germany’s was only 0.3 percent, Mische said.

“So, Japan and Germany grew at less than 1% for the 2019 to 2024 period in real GDP terms,” he said.

Japan has suffered from a prolonged state of decline, while Germany is enduring high labor and energy costs, he added.

Marshall Toplansky, an associate professor and faculty fellow in innovation at Chapman University’s College of Business and Economics, noted that tariffs could slow California’s economy.

“The interesting question here is whether the impact of tariffs will change this,“ Toplansky told The Epoch Times. ”I think we will be feeling a slowdown in trade if the tariffs continue at high levels.”

Shipping containers line the Port of Los Angeles on March 28, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

The issue is how high the tariffs will be and how long they will last, he added.

“The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach will very likely see a drop in volume, and it is not clear to what extent they will hurt overall GDP for the state,” Toplansky said.

Newsom filed a lawsuit on April 16 in federal court challenging President Donald Trump’s tariffs, claiming they will hurt states, consumers, and businesses.

US equity futures were unchanged, erasing a modest gain and loss earlier, after General Motors pulled earnings guidance for 2025 and put share buybacks on hold until it has more clarity on the impact of US tariffs. As of 8:15am, S&P futures were flat, while Nasdaq futures were down 0.2% as TSLA rose +1.0% pre-mkt, followed by MSFT +0.5% and AMZN +0.5%. GM dropped in premarket trading, reversing an earlier gain, as it said it would suspend $4 billion of share repurchases. Bond yields and USD are higher (2-, 5-, 10-yr yields are 1.6bp, 2.9bp, 2.7bp higher). Commodities are mixed with WTI futures dropping 1.7%, adding to sharp losses seen Monday, Base Metals higher, and Precious Metals mixed. WSJ repeated a report from last week that Trump may ease his auto tariffs today; Elsewhere, Scott Bessent set July 4 as the goal to pass Trump’s tax cut package; he will announce the debt-ceiling X-date this week or next. Today, the key macro focus will be JOLTS Job Openings and Conf. Board Consumer Confidence.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are mixed as futures whipsaw )Amazon +0.2%, Alphabet +0.2%, Microsoft +0.1%, Apple +0.1%, Tesla -0.1%, Meta -0.1%, Nvidia -0.7%). General Motors (GM) shares fall 2.4% premarket after the automaker withdrew 2025 earnings guidance and paused $4 billion in share repurchases until it has more clarity on tariff impacts. Hims & Hers Health Inc. (HIMS) shares soared as much as 46% as it’s among companies Novo Nordisk A/S is partnering with to offer its popular weight-loss drug Wegovy to more US patients at a reduced price. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Crown Holdings (CCK) shares rise 3.3% after the beverage can maker reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Analysts note strong volumes in Europe and Brazil
• Honeywell International Inc. (HON) shares gain 4.7% after the company raised its full-year guidance for earnings per share.
• PayPal (PYPL) shares are down 4.1% in premarket trading after the company reported fewer payment transactions in the first quarter than analysts expected.
• Okta (OKTA) shares rise 3.8% after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the stock will replace Berry Global in the S&P MidCap 400 before trading opens May 1.
• Regeneron (REGN) shares fall 7.5% after the drugmaker reported profit and sales for the first quarter that fell short of expectations.
• Ultra Clean (UCTT) shares are down 10% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported first-quarter results that missed expectations and gave an outlook that is below the analyst consensus.
• UPS (UPS) shares are up 2% after the company reported adjusted earnings per share in the first quarter above what analysts expected
• Waste Management (WM) shares fall 1.7% after the firm’s first-quarter update missed revenue expectations and free cash flow dropped, with analysts saying that investors could have been hoping for more in order to support the stock’s year-to-date rally
• Wolfspeed (WOLF) shares are up 10% as the chipmaker is set for its sixth session of straight gains to match February’s winning streak

As Bloomberg notes, after weeks of intense volatility, markets now seem to be in a holding pattern. Gold is consolidating after hitting record highs, the DXY dollar index remains below its key 100 level, and oil is drifting lower. For investors, it’s difficult to find consensus, with risk management, confidence, and the guiding narrative on US exceptionalism upended by tariffs.

“With the uncertainty created by the tariffs we need to start pricing at least a probability of a US recession,” Johanna Kyrklund, chief investment officer at Schroders Plc, told Bloomberg TV. “As we analyze each company stock-by-stock, we’re looking for that risk to growth.”

Tariff sentiment continues to drive price action, with investors weighing plans by the Trump administration to ease the impact of auto tariffs by lifting some levies on foreign parts for cars and trucks made inside the US. However, it doesn’t look like a trade resolution is coming anytime soon. China’s top diplomat warned countries against caving in to US tariff threats, and Trump’s tactics are only serving to make China’s Xi Jinping more popular. At home, Treasury Secretary Bessent set a July 4 goal to pass a multi-trillion dollar tax cut package to appease voters getting fed up of Trump’s handling of the economy.

Still, with just over a third of S&P 500 companies reporting quarterly results, of those, 75% have beat estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. S&P 500-listed companies worth $20 trillion are set to deliver results this week in one of the heaviest for 2025 earnings seasons. But the next few days are key: companies worth $20 trillion are set to deliver results this week in one of the heaviest for 2025 earnings seasons.  

Beyond the plethora of earnings, investors will be tracking data for clues on economic resilience in the face of tariffs. Prospects for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts will be guided by Friday’s US non-farm payrolls figures. Sentiment earlier was boosted by signs of easing trade tensions after a White House official said imported automobiles would be given a reprieve from separate tariffs on aluminum and steel. 

In Canada, the Liberal Party is projected to win a fourth consecutive election, giving a mandate to former central banker Mark Carney.

European stocks rise 0.4%, with risk sentiment improving after the US said imported autos would be given a reprieve from separate tariffs on aluminum and steel. Miners, travel and banks are the strongest-performing European sectors, while the IBEX lags peers, dropping 0.5%, as Spain deals with the fallout of a massive blackout. In earnings, Deutsche Bank shares rise after its trading unit hit a record. HSBC climbs after announcing a fresh share buyback. BP shares fall after the oil major cut its buyback as profit missed forecasts. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

• Rheinmetall shares rise as much as 7.3% after smashing expectations across the board with analysts praising a blowout quarter.
• Deutsche Bank shares gain as much as 4.6% after the lender posted a strong set of results, led by its trading unit hitting a record in the first quarter amid high market volatility.
• Neste shares gain as much as 13% after the Finnish refiner posted an increase in margins within its renewable product unit in the first quarter results.
• HelloFresh shares jump as much as 12% after the meal-kit company reported first-quarter adjusted Ebitda that beat estimates by roughly 30%, a sign that the firm is hastening its pivot to profitability as it cuts fulfillment and marketing expenses.
• Amundi shares slide as much as 2.4% after the investment manager’s first-quarter earnings showed a mixed performance that could weigh on consensus estimates, according to analysts.
• Porsche shares fall as much as 7.6%, their steepest drop since early February, after the luxury carmaker issued another profit warning.
• Deutsche Boerse shares fall as much as 5.7% after the German stock-exchange operator reported earnings for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Lufthansa shares fall as much as 2.9%. Results for the first quarter are largely in line and the carrier expects strong demand during the second quarter, though analysts note that weakening demand on the North Atlantic presents warning signs ahead of the peak summer season.
• Volvo Cars shares fall as much as 11% to a record low after the Swedish automaker posted first-quarter results that missed estimates and withdrew guidance for this year and next due to uncertainty around US tariffs.
• Elekta shares drop as much as 6.2% after an unidentified holder offered up to 15m shares via Goldman Sachs at a discount of 5.5% vs. Monday’s close, according to terms seen by Bloomberg.
• Nordic Semi shares slide as much as 9.4% after the chipmaker forecast 2Q sales below consensus estimates, citing increased risks from trade tensions and tariffs.

Asian equities advanced, rising to the highest level this month, on a rally in some Chinese technology shares and a sentiment boost from further signs of the US dialing down its trade rhetoric. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7% Tuesday. TSMC and Meituan provided the biggest boost to the gauge, while India’s Reliance Industries extended its rally triggered by better-than-expected earnings. Benchmarks advanced in Hong Kong, Taiwan, India and South Korea. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday. Asian markets have largely recovered from the hit sparked by President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcements on April 2 amid hopes for trade deals. In the latest positive sign, Trump is on track to ease the impact of his auto tariffs, with changes sought by the industry that would lift some levies on foreign parts made inside the US.

• Australia: S&P/ASX 200 +0.92%, extending its winning streak to a 4th straight session as investors brushed off global trade uncertainties. Domestically, expectations are growing that the RBA will deliver another 25-bps cut in May, amid rising economic uncertainty and escalating global trade concerns. Investors are now awaiting Australian inflation data, due Wednesday, for further insight into the RBA’s next move.
• Taiwan: TAIEX +1%, was once again the best performing market in the region as sentiment continues to improve following recent rally in the US. TSMC 2330 TT +0.6% led the way as it closed above TWD900 for the first time since the tariff selloff in the first week of April. Small/mid-caps continued to outperform, as OTC index have rallied for 6th straight days, while beaten down AI ROBOTICS/BBU plays surged today.
• Korea: KOSPI +0.65%, rebounded. led by locals’ inflow. Locals extended their net buying streak for 3 consecutive days, mainly buying Tech (+$69mn) and Financials (+$94mn) today while foreigners remained as net sellers of equities, mainly selling Transport Equipment (-$231mn, comprised heavily of Shipbuilders, Defense, and Autos). Hanwha Ocean 042660 KR -12.1% as the name plunged after Co's shareholder KDB announced to raise up to W1.1trn (c. $735mn) through a block deal. Meanwhile, Korean Autos (KRXAUTO +1.6%) gained as President Trump is expected to soften the impact of this auto tariffs.
• Japan: The market is closed today (Showa Day) and will resume trading on April 30th.
• China: SHSZ300 -0.2%, traded choppy as Sino-US trade uncertainty weighed on sentiment. China reiterated that it is not involved in trade talks with the US. Small cap and TMTs overthrown large cap but neither of them gave a strong conviction. Innovance 300124 CH +4% post earnings beat. Healthcare rebounded, but A is lagging H. Xinqi pharma 300573 +14% post earnings 3x in 1Q. There is also a peer bank report released yesterday calling for China HC re-rating, especially in the domestic pure revenue names like Ping An Good Doctor, and Ali health.
• HK: HSI +0.2%. SB turned net seller of -US$827mm today, continuing general trend of outflows from last week. On the flows front, the desk saw active managers sell into liquidity from passive buying. Wuxi AppTec 2359 HK +4.2% after 1Q25 earnings beat on both top and bottom line. Geely 175 HK also +4.2% after subsidiary Volvo indicated they would reduce costs. In contrast, BYD 1211 HK -2.6% as concerns of waning demand from yesterday persisted.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2% after falling 0.5% on Monday, when a disappointing manufacturing activity report added to concerns over US economic growth; haven currencies the yen and Swiss franc, were the biggest underperformers versus the dollar, down 0.6% and 0.4% respectively

• CAD/USD was little-changed at 1.3831, outperforming other Group-of-10 currencies which were lower across the board
• EUR/USD fell 0.3% to 1.1388; 10-year bund yield fell 3bps to 2.49%
• GBP/USD also slipped, pulling away from a three-year high; gilts edged up, tracking gains in other European bonds

In rates, treasury futures drift lower into early US session, unwinding a portion of gains seen Monday and underperforming core European bonds. US yields cheaper by 1bp to 3bp across the curve with 2s10s steeper by 1bp on the day; US 10-year yields trade back up 3bps to around 4.24% with bunds and gilts outperforming by 4bp and 5.5bp in the sector.

In commodities, WTI drifts 1.6% lower to trade near $61.03. Spot gold falls roughly $29 to trade near $3,315/oz. Most base metals are in the green. Bitcoin climbs to around $95,000. 

The US economic calendar includes March wholesale inventories, February S&P CoreLogic house prices (9am), March JOLTS job openings, April consumer confidence (10am) and April Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Cipollone and Holzmann, and the BoE’s Ramsden. The Fed's talking heads remain mute thanks to the communications blackout ahead of the May 7 FOMC meeting. Finally, earnings releases include Starbucks, Visa, Pfizer and UPS.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.1%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
• DAX +0.6%, CAC 40 -0.1%
• 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.23%
• VIX -0.3 points at 24.86
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1222.16
• euro -0.2% at $1.1394
• WTI crude -1.4% at $61.17/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Canada’s Liberal Party won a fourth straight election, handing Mark Carney a mandate but with a narrow margin of victory. The loonie was steady. The Liberals led with 168 seats, ahead of the Conservative Party’s 144 but short of the 172 required for a majority. The Bloc Québécois would hold the balance of power in a minority government, raising the likelihood of a looser fiscal policy than Carney wants. Carney vowed to win the trade war with the US and strengthen alliances with other countries. BBG
• President Trump is expected to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs, preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of other tariffs he has imposed and easing some levies on foreign parts used to manufacture cars in the U.S. WSJ
• White House said Trump wants tax cuts in this reconciliation package, while it was separately reported that Bessent said he hopes the Trump tax bill can be done by July 4th.
• US Treasury Financing Estimates (Q2): expects to borrow USD 514bln in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming end of June cash balance of 850bln (prev. guided USD 123bln, assuming end of June cash balance USD 850bln).
• China’s copper stockpiles are on track to dwindle to nothing in just a few months, as the market suffers “one of the greatest tightening shocks” in its history on fears of US tariffs. FT
• China said it’s open to working with US companies after halting Boeing jet deliveries. India plans to highlight its large pipeline of Boeing orders and potential for more to secure a favorable trade deal with the US. BBG
• China said the US should stop making threats and pursue dialogue based on mutual respect. Earlier, Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned countries against caving in to tariff threats. BBG
• Eurozone inflation expectations rise, with 12-month climbing 30bp to 2.9% (highest since Apr ’24) and 36-month advancing 10bp to 2.5% (highest since Mar ’24). ECB
• Pakistan’s army said it shot down an Indian spy drone along their disputed border in the Kashmir region, as tensions rise over last week’s militant attacks. BBG
• A union representing West Coast dockworkers has sharply criticized President Trump over his “reckless” tariffs that will hurt American workers. The union noted the tariffs have created tension with allies and are a “direct attack” on the working class. The Hill
• Scott Bessent set a July 4 goal to pass Trump’s multi-trillion dollar tax cut package. He also said the debt-ceiling X date will be announced this week or next. BBG

Tariffs/Trade

• US President Trump is expected to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs by preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of other tariffs he imposed and easing some levies on foreign parts used to manufacture cars in the US, according to WSJ citing sources. Furthermore, a White House official said those actions are expected on Tuesday and Commerce Secretary Lutnick said President Trump is building an important partnership with both the domestic automakers and American workers, while Lutnick added this deal rewards companies who manufacture domestically, as well as provides a runway to manufacturers who have expressed commitment to invest in America and expand their domestic manufacturing.
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said concession and retreat will only make the bully more aggressive.
• China's MOFCOM said on the report that Boeing flew back three 737 MAX planes to be delivered to Chinese airlines, that China and the US have maintained long-term mutually beneficial cooperation in the field of civil aviation, while it added the US wielded the big stick of tariffs to seriously impact the stability of global industrial and supply chains, and many enterprises were unable to carry out normal trade and investment activities.
• Italian PM Meloni says times are not mature yet for an EU-US summit, according to Corriere Della Sera.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly in the green but with some of the gains capped following the choppy performance stateside and in holiday-thinned conditions with Japanese markets closed for a holiday, while reports that US President Trump is expected to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs saw a muted reaction. ASX 200 gained amid outperformance in the energy, tech and resources sectors, while miners were also lifted as  participants digested output updates. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied as the mainland lagged owing to uncertainty from the US-China trade war with US Treasury Secretary Bessent recently commenting that it is up to China to de-escalate and that he has an "escalation ladder in his back pocket", while China's Foreign Ministry reiterated its denial regarding a Trump-Xi call and Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned that compromise and backing down would only embolden the bully.

Top Asian News

• Japan and Malaysia are reportedly exploring broader economic ties including AI and automotive.
• Alibaba (9988 HK) introduced Qwen3 to set a new benchmark in open-source AI with hybrid reasoning.
• Earthquake of magnitude 5.0 strikes China's Tibet region, via CENC.
• Agricultural Bank (1288 HK) Q1 (CNH) Revenue 186bln (exp. 185bln), Net Income 72.1bln (exp. 73.95bln), +2.2% Y/Y, NII 140.6bln (exp. 142.7bln), CET1 11.23%.
• Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398 HK) Q1 (CNH) NII 156.78bln (exp. 161.29bln), Net Income 84.70bln, -4% Y/Y.
• China Construction Bank (939 HK) Q1 (CNH) NII 141.92bln, NIM 1.41%.
• Bank of China (3988 HK) Q1 (CNY) Net 54.36bln (exp. 57.4bln), NIM 1.29%, Operating Income 165bln (exp. 155bln)

European bourses opened modestly firmer/flat, but some modest pressure crept into the complex as the morning progressed – with indices generally off best levels, to show a mixed picture in Europe. European sectors hold a slight positive bias, albeit with the breadth of the market fairly narrow. Basic Resources takes the top spot, followed closely by Media and Banks. Energy is found at the foot of the pile, dragged down by post-earning losses in BP (-4%); the continued pressure in the crude complex is also not helping. Autos find themselves towards the middle of the bunch. For the sector more generally, US President Trump is expected to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs, by preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of other tariffs he imposed and easing some levies on foreign parts used to manufacture cars in the US, via WSJ. For stock specifics, Porsche AG (-5%) dips after it cut FY25 guidance; Volvo Car (-8.3%) reported a significant miss on its EBIT and Revenue figure and launched a SEK 18bln cost and cash action plan.

Top European News

• ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: March: See inflation in next 12 months at 2.9% (prev. 2.6%); 3y ahead sees 2.5% (prev. 2.4%); 12-month is highest since April 2024. Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months were stable in March, standing at -1.2%.
• ECB's Cipollone says that ECB staff estimates suggest that the recently observed increase in financial market volatility might imply lower GDP growth of about 0.2ppts in 2025.

FX

• USD is attempting to claw back some of yesterday's losses that were in part driven by a soft outturn for Dallas Fed Manufacturing data. On the trade front, US President Trump is expected today to announce measures to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs by preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of other tariffs, according to WSJ. DXY has risen as high as 99.31 but is yet to venture near Monday's best at 99.83.
• EUR/USD has faded some of its recent gains and failed to sustain the 1.1400 status with recent price action largely driven by moves in the greenback. Spanish CPI metrics which printed hotter-than-expected on a Y/Y, M/M and core basis. EUR/USD is currently contained within Monday's 1.1329-1.1425 range.
• USD/JPY marginally rebounded from support around the 142.00 level after sliding yesterday owing to the early initial risk aversion and lower US yield environment but with the recovery limited in the absence of Japanese participants. USD/JPY has ventured as high as 142.57 but is some way off Monday's opening level at 143.57.
• GBP is a touch softer after Monday's session of outperformance which didn't appear to be driven by any obvious catalyst. BoE's Ramsden is due later; Cable matched its YTD high printed yesterday at 1.3444 before pulling back.
• Antipodeans are both softer vs. the greenback amid a lack of pertinent newsflow out of Australia and New Zealand. That will change tomorrow for AUD with Australian Q1 CPI due on deck.
• CAD in focus after Canada's ruling Liberals, led by Mark Carney, won the national election. However, the outcome was closer than predicted by polls and will require the party to form a minority government. Accordingly, initial support for CAD has faded as markets reprice away from expectations of a majority government. USD/CAD currently sits towards the bottom end of yesterday's 1.3816-92 range.
• Canada's ruling Liberals led by Mark Carney won the national election but will need to form a minority government, according to CTV.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2029 vs exp. 7.2781 (Prev. 7.2043).

Fixed Income

• A contained start for fixed income given the Japanese holiday (Showa Day) overnight, meaning that there was no cash trade. USTs currently at the lower-end of a very thin 111-22 to 111-30 band and one that is within Monday’s 111-10 to 111-31 confines. Focus ahead is on, US Consumer Confidence, Advance Goods Trade and JOLTS Job Openings.
• Bunds is modestly firmer. On the data front, Spain’s inflation printed hotter-than-expected across the board and sent Bunds to a 131.16 low with Alphabet’s presence in the market perhaps also weighing. Thereafter, Bunds have recovered a touch and are back into the green and just off a 131.46 session high; a high that printed as the European risk tone came under a little bit of pressure after the Russian Kremlin said Ukraine has not responded to its latest ceasefire proposal.
• Gilts are flat given the lack of leads from sparse overnight trade and a European morning that has been devoid of UK-specifics aside from earnings. At the lower end of a 92.96 to 93.25 band, comfortably within Monday’s 92.79 to 93.33 range. BoE's Ramsden is due later.
• UK sells GBP 900mln 1.25% 2054 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.31x (prev. 3.06x) & real yield 2.175% (prev. 2.126%).
• Italy sells EUR 7.5bln vs exp. EUR 6.5-7.5bln 2.95% 2030, 3.60% 2035 BTP & EUR vs exp. EUR 1.5-2.0bln 2033 CCTeu.
• Alphabet (GOOGL) kicks of debut sale of EUR debt 4yr IPTs mid-swaps +85bps area. 8yr IPTs mid-swaps +105bps area. 12yr IPTs mid-swaps +125bps area.

Commodities

• Crude is on the backfoot, extending on the prior day's losses; there has been little by way of fresh oil-specific newsflow, so focus has been on updates out of Russia/Ukraine; most recently, Russia's Kremlin suggested Ukraine had not responded to offers to commence negotiations. Brent July'25 currently trades in a USD 63.62-64.81/bbl range.
• TTF is lower on the day, after finishing Monday’s session modestly higher, surrounding a number of updates including the blackout in Spain and a three-day ceasefire proposal from Russia. With Spain and Portugal’s blackout almost fully resolved today’s attention now shifts to Russia's ceasefire proposal, announced for May 8th-11th. As it stands, Russia says Ukraine is not responding to the proposal.
• Spot gold continues its reversal from recent record highs, with a number of risk events ahead including US consumer confidence and pivotal speakers such as Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Bessent who are likely to speak on auto tariffs. Thus far, today’s low has been recorded at USD 3,314/oz, with a high of USD 3,359/oz.
• Copper is a little firmer after a broad base metals bid this morning, lifting it from near session lows of USD 9,368/t, to session highs of USD 9,455/t, currently holding just off best levels.
• Spain's PM said the government will release 3 days worth of strategic oil reserves, while the grid operator later restored nearly all power.
• China's copper supplies are on track to be depleted in just a few months as the market suffers one of the greatest tightening shocks due to fears of US tariffs, according to commodities trading house Mercuria cited by FT.
• Kazakhstan Q1 oil exports +7% Y/Y to 1.63mln BPD, according to Reuters calculations and official data.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US President Trump intends to extend the two-month deadline allocated for US-Iran negotiations, according to Israel Hayom citing Israeli officials
• Gaza talks in Cairo are said to be witnessing a "significant breakthrough" and parties agreed on a number of issues including consensus on a long-term ceasefire in Gaza, although some sticking points remain including Hamas arms, according to Reuters citing two Egyptian sources.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Explosions were heard in Kyiv after the Ukraine air force issued air raid alerts and air defence systems were engaged in repelling a Russian air attack.
• Russian Kremlin says Ukraine has not responded to many offers by President Putin to commence negotiations without any preconditions, according to Tass Direct talks with Ukraine need to commence, adding this is primary and the legitimacy of Zelensky is secondary. 30-day ceasefire is impossible without settling all the nuances.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Mar P Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.3%
• 9:00 am: Feb FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
• 9:00 am: Feb S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA, est. 4.7%, prior 4.67%
• 10:00 am: Mar JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7500k, prior 7568k
• 10:00 am: Apr Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 88, prior 92.9

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It's shorts and sandals weather here in the UK which is lovely unless it forces you to look at the horrible brusing of my broken little toe. Enjoy the sunshine if you're in Europe this week.

After last week’s rally, markets saw a choppy start to a busy week with the S&P 500 recovering from a -1% decline to narrowly post a fifth consecutive gain (+0.06%) last night, even as the Mag-7 (-0.36%) lagged ahead of Meta and Microsoft earnings tomorrow and Apple and Amazon on Thursday. 10yr Treasuries (-2.7bps) also gained for a fifth session in a row, falling to their lowest level in three weeks at 4.21%.

On tariffs, the latest newsflow was actually fairly positive at face value, as US officials continued to sound optimistic about potential trade deals yesterday. For instance, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that they’d had “many countries come forward and present some very good proposals”. He also said “I would guess that India would be one of the first trade deals we would sign”. Separately, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also said that more details on trade talks would be announced this week. And later on, Bessent tweeted that they were “continuing to make substantive movement on negotiations with many of our trading partners.” So the rhetoric from the administration is still pointing towards negotiations, rather than further escalation. However, there was still little sign of dialogue between the US and China, with Bessent saying “I believe it’s up to China to de-escalate”. Overnight the incremental positive news has continued with the White House confirming an earlier WSJ story that imported autos would not also face additional aluminum and steel tariffs. This has helped lift S&P (+0.19%) and Nasdaq (+0.24%) futures this morning.

This steady flow of mostly more positive trade headlines lifted the S&P 500 from as low as -1.02% mid-way through yesterday's session to ultimately close marginally higher on the day (+0.06%). That left the index still narrowly in technical correction territory, closing -10.02% below its peak in mid-February, but its slightly above that mark again this morning. It was actually a decent day in terms of market breadth, with two-thirds of the S&P 500 constituents moving higher on the day and its equal-weighted version up +0.30%. By contrast, tech stock underperformance saw the Magnificent 7 decline by -0.36%, led by a -2.05% fall for Nvidia as the chipmaker struggled following news that China’s Huawei is set to test a new chip that could end up being a competitor.

Earlier in yesterday’s session, the mood at the lows wasn’t helped by the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing survey, which plunged to its lowest level since May 2020. Specifically, the general business activity index was down to -35.8, and the raw materials prices index also moved up to its highest level since mid-2022, at 48.4. So that added to the stagflationary narrative, although it’s worth noting that this is a survey once again rather than hard data, and so far the surveys have tended to suggest a worse performance relative to the hard data. As a result, markets weren’t too reactive to the print directly, but it added to the more downbeat backdrop going into this week’s other releases.

US Treasuries saw a more consistent performance, with 10yr yields falling -2.7bps to 4.21% and 2yr yields down -5.4bps to 3.70%, their lowest level since April 4th. Yesterday afternoon, the Treasury released its latest quarterly borrowing estimates, with the Q2 issuance estimate revised up to $514bn from $123bn due to a lower starting cash balance and with the Q3 estimate at $554bn. These figures were slightly above our rate strategists expectations but this may be due to the Treasury not yet factoring in increased tariff revenues. The announcement had limited impact on yields, which closed near the session’s lows. In other fiscal news, after the US close Treasury Secretary Bessent said the administration hoped to have Congress pass their tax bill by July 4.

With rates moving lower, one US asset that did lose ground yesterday was the dollar, with the dollar index down -0.54%, as the safe haven currencies of the Swiss franc (+1.02%) and Japanese yen (+1.17%) outperformed.

Back in Europe, there was a stronger risk-on tone, which reinstated the pattern of European outperformance in 2025. In fact, at the intraday peak, the DAX (+0.13% at the close) even managed to entirely erase its losses since Liberation Day, although by the end of the session it was still -0.53% beneath its levels on April 2. Nevertheless, the index was still up for the 8th time in the last 9 sessions, and those gains were echoed across the continent. For instance, the STOXX 600 (+0.53%) advanced for a 5th consecutive day, as did France’s CAC 40 (+0.50%). The smallest yet most notable rise was the FTSE 100 (+0.02%), which posted an 11th consecutive advance for the first time since 2019, and if it manages a 12th consecutive gain today, that would be the first time since 2017.

Consistent with that risk-on tone, European sovereign bond yields also moved higher, with those on 10yr bunds (+5.1bps), OATs (+4.9bps) and BTPs (+5.5bps) all rising. Likewise, credit spreads tightened further, with Euro HY spreads down -4bps to 349bps, edging closer to their Liberation Day level of 322bps.

In political news, Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party is projected to win the Canadian federal election. However, with projections showing the Liberals leading in only 155 of 343 seats – shy of the 172 needed for a majority – Carney is likely facing a minority government and will need to negotiate with other parties to pass legislation. The Conservatives are currently projected to win 150 seats. So a remarkable comeback for the Liberals relative to their January lows when they were over 25pp down in the polls but seemingly not quite as good as they would have hoped as the polls closed last night.

In Asia the fresh overnight news on auto tariffs we discussed at the top seems to be helping push markets higher. The S&P/ASX 200 (+0.91%) has hit a near 2-month high with the KOSPI (+0.65%) and the Hang Seng (+0.38%) also edging higher while Chinese equities are bucking the positive trend with the CSI (-0.14%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.05%) seeing minor losses. Elsewhere, Japanese markets are closed for a public holiday. There’s no trading of cash Treasuries in Asia as Japan is closed.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the JOLTS report for March, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for April, and the FHFA’s house price index for February. Meanwhile in the Euro Area, we’ll get the M3 money supply for March, and the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator for April. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Cipollone and Holzmann, and the BoE’s Ramsden. Finally, earnings releases include Starbucks, Visa, Pfizer and UPS.