No one is forced to be a Christian. But no one should be forced to live according to the "new religion" as though it alone were definitive and obligatory for all mankind.
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Site: AsiaNews.itTrump's announcement could trigger economic 'detente' and encourage the return of Syrian refugees. Reconstruction, trade and banking links between Beirut and Damascus could be revived. In the background looms the possibility of normalisation with Israel. Walid Joumblatt reminds us of the Arab world's key condition: 'Peace in exchange for territory.'
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Site: AsiaNews.itAfter years of disregarding opposition demands, the Indian government has changed course and decided to include caste classification in the next national census. Behind the political move lie electoral pressures and the growing influence of disadvantaged castes. No official date has been set, but according to local media, the census is expected to take place in 2026.
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Site: Real Investment Advice
Per an article in the Financial Times titled US Poised To Dial Back Rules Imposed In Wake of 2008 Crisis, US bank regulators are preparing to reduce bank capital requirements. Of particular interest to the bond market is the supplementary leverage ratio, better known as SLR. Unlike other risk-based capital rules that banks adhere to, SLR applies a minimum capital requirement to all bank balance sheet assets. The rule was put in place in 2014 to limit excessive leverage. For more information, click this LINK from the Office of Financial Research.
Banks have long argued that the SLR handcuffs their ability to make loans. Furthermore, and of importance to the administration, banks claim that SLR limits their ability to buy Treasury securities. The article states that intense lobbying from Wall Street argues that SLR hinders competition and impedes lending. Bear in mind that the eight largest US banks are subject to enhanced SLR. These are the biggest buyers of US Treasury securities.
Many analysts suspect that the SLR will change by this summer. However, the pressure to change them sooner could arise if Treasury yields continue to rise. With Treasury yields approaching 5%, we suspect banks will be licking their chops to buy Treasuries once the SLR restrictions are eased. We end with the quote below from Chairman Powell at a Congressional Committee hearing in February:
Yes, I believe we will. I have, for a long time, like others, been somewhat concerned about the levels of liquidity in the Treasury market. The amount of Treasuries has grown much faster than the intermediation capacity has grown, and one obvious thing to do is to lower, is to reduce the effective [supplementary] leverage ratio, the bindingness of it. So that’s something I do expect we will return to and work on with our new colleagues at the other agencies, and get done.
What To Watch Today
Earnings
- No earnings reports today
Economy
Market Trading Update
Yesterday, we discussed three scenarios for a much-needed pullback to retest support. That discussion generated several comments as to WHY we expect a short-term correction. As is always the case, things can only move so far in one direction before they reverse. For example, just a few weeks ago, the market registered extreme "fear" levels and has now reversed to extreme "greed."
While that sentiment reversal does not mean the market needs to crash, a "pause" in the rally should be expected. However, amid what seems to be an "unstoppable rally," it is hard to take chips off the table, particularly with hedge funds still underweight equity exposure.
However, patience will likely pay off here. As we have noted previously, we are still on a weekly sell signal, which historically has led to short-term market underperformance. As shown, previous periods of historical weekly moving average crossovers typically involve a more extended period of consolidation or corrective price actions. The main exception to that rule was 2020, when the Federal Reserve intervened with massive monetary support. With yields rising and the Fed on hold, there is no excess support coming into the market other than a surge in corporate buybacks. However, those are due to decline starting next month.
However, with that said, there is an increasing "panic" among institutional players to "get long" this market, which could provide a continued bid under stocks for a while longer. However, the "easy money" has likely been made with volatility quickly crashing back to pre-panic levels. As noted, the market is overbought, sentiment is becoming more bullish, and offside positioning has reversed; as such, it will not take much to get the market to pull back to the support levels we identified yesterday.
Follow your risk management protocols and rebalance risk until a better entry opportunity exists. It may take a few weeks, but patience will likely be rewarded.
Trade accordingly.
PPI And Retail Sales
Investors feared that PPI would increase due to tariffs. PPI measures the prices of products used in the production process; thus, investors suspected that tariff-related inflation would show up in PPI before CPI, which represents finished goods. Therefore, based on the data, companies are paying the tariffs and not passing them on, which would pressure profit margins. PPI was -0.5% versus forecasts of +0.2%. Core PPI fell by 0.4%, with expectations of +0.3%. The BLS did revise the prior month higher by 0.4%. Accordingly, year over year, PPI is 2.4%, with the new data and revisions.
Anna Wong, an economist at Bloomberg, opines:
Normally on PPI release we just focus on the categories that's important for calculating core PCE deflator. But April's release is interesting in its own right, as it broadly reinforce the story we saw in the CPI release earlier today:
-There is increased pass-through of tariffs in goods prices
-Deflation in services is offsetting those tariffs increase
-The net impact is disinflation.
On services, final demand prices for transportation and warehousing, and construction are very soft.
Retail Sales only rose by 0.1% following a 1.7% surge last month. Such a weak number was expected as it is believed consumers front-ran purchases to avoid tariffs, leaving lesser needs going forward. The retail sales control group, which feeds GDP, fell by 0.2%, after rising by 0.5% last month. Interestingly, sporting goods, which are experiencing one of the most significant tariff increases, saw sales fall significantly, as shown below. Accordingly, as we wrote with PPI, companies may have to eat the tariffs to keep sales up.
The Best Investment Strategies For A High-Inflation Environment
Rising inflation can chip away at the value of your money and investments, making it one of the most persistent threats to long-term wealth. Thus, as prices increase and purchasing power declines, investors must be proactive in adjusting their strategies to protect their portfolios.
If you’re looking to safeguard your wealth in a high-inflation environment, now is the time to consider investments that are positioned to outpace inflation and preserve your future financial security.
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The post Bank Regulators Will Help The Treasury appeared first on RIA.
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Site: Mises InstituteWhy did the South lose the Civil War? Mark Thornton argues Vicksburg—not Gettysburg—was key, revealing how Confederate economic failures sealed their fate.
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Site: Crisis Magazine
On May 8, 2025, the world witnessed the beginning of a new chapter in the life of the Catholic Church as former Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost took the name Pope Leo XIV to begin the 267th pontificate in the unbroken line of successors to St. Peter. With the eyes of the faithful and the curiosity of the secular world fixed upon the Vatican, many are wondering what the new pope’s choice of name…
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Site: Real Investment Advice
Fisher Investments recently wrote an interesting article asking whether corporate stock buybacks affect markets. Here is their conclusion:
"Yes and no? Stocks move on supply and demand. Stock buybacks, where a company buys and takes shares off the market, theoretically reduce supply. They can also raise earnings per share, thus rewarding shareholders. So, all else equal and on paper, stock buybacks are bullish. But reality, as always, is more complicated. Buybacks are just one factor affecting supply. There are others, and demand matters, too. They may not reduce supply if they merely offset secondary issuances, like employee stock awards. Often, buybacks merely 'sterilize' new issuance. Other negative (or less bullish) fundamental factors might matter more in pricing, lowering demand even as supply shrinks. So buybacks are a factor, but not the factor."
While the statement is mostly correct, I am unsure they looked at the actual impact that corporate stock buybacks have on the market. We have discussed this topic and the past misstatements of corporate stock buybacks. Here is a listing for more background.
- They are not a return of capital to shareholders; dividends are.
- Corporate stock buybacks are the worst use of cash.
- It is a benefit that almost entirely benefits corporate insiders.
But, without rehashing the many problems of corporate stock buybacks, let's focus on these transactions' impact on the overall market.
As of May 2025, corporate stock buyback authorizations are on track to eclipse $1.35 trillion this year, with more than $1 trillion executed. This will exceed any other year in the market since the turn of the century. Such should be unsurprising with Apple (AAPL) announcing an additional $100 billion and Google adding another $70 billion to their programs (those two programs will account for 12% of the total alone).
The data should lead one to question why corporate stock buybacks have grown steadily since the turn of the century. Such is particularly the case when the overreliance on buybacks at non-accretive valuations to boost stock prices has become commonplace. Such a statement undermines the fallacy that corporate stock buybacks are solely a return of capital to shareholders. For example, Apple’s $110 billion buyback plan in 2024 raised questions among some investors about whether the company focused too much on immediate stock price increases rather than on investments that could drive long-term value. That statement should not be overlooked, given that 5-year annualized revenue growth has been flat since 2018. (Chart courtesy of SimpleVisor.com)
If corporate stock buybacks are not a significant factor in increasing stock prices, why do companies engage in them so heavily? Why not just let market dynamics carry the load? The reason is simplistic to understand.
“Corporate executives give several reasons for stock buybacks but none of them has close to the explanatory power of this simple truth: Stock-based instruments make up the majority of their pay and in the short-term buybacks drive up stock prices.” - Financial Times.
So, how much of a factor are buybacks?
Are Buybacks An Important Factor
It is a pretty easy task to see whether or not corporate stock buybacks influence stock prices. As we penned last year, the impact of buybacks extends beyond individual companies. Since 2000, net corporate buybacks have accounted for 100% of the equity market’s net asset purchases—a reflection of the diminished participation from pensions, mutual funds, and individual investors:
- Net Flow: +$5.2 trillion
- Pensions & Mutual Funds: –$2.7 trillion
- Households & Foreign Investors: +$2.4 trillion
- Corporations (Buybacks): +$5.5 trillion
In other words, without corporate stock buybacks, the stock market would be roughly 30% lower today.
“The chart below via Pavilion Global Markets shows the impact stock buybacks have had on the market over the last decade. The decomposition of returns for the S&P 500 breaks down as follows:“
- 6.1% from multiple expansions (21% at Peak),
- 57.3% from earnings (31.4% at Peak),
- 9.1% from dividends (7.1% at Peak), and
- 27% from share buybacks (40.5% at Peak)
Yes, buybacks are that important.
However, to Fisher's question directly, there is more than just a minor correlation between corporate stock buybacks and the market. The chart below overlays the 4-week change in stock buybacks versus the 4-week change in the S&P 500 index. It is worth noting that before 1982, the SEC considered share buybacks an illegal form of market manipulation. (In 1982, the SEC adopted Rule 10b-18, which provided "safe harbor" from "liability of market manipulation. In other words, the SEC recognizes that buybacks manipulate the financial markets but provided a "shield" to corporations.)
The chart above is complex due to the large amount of data. The chart below is from 2021 to present, where changes to buybacks (increase or decrease) significantly impact changes to stock prices. It is worth noting that the nearly 20% decline in April was exacerbated by the sharp reversal in buyback activity and vice versa.
While Fisher suggests that buybacks have little to do with market movements, a high correlation exists between the 4-week percentage change in buybacks and the stock market. More importantly, since the act of share repurchases provides a buyer for those shares, the .85 correlation between the two suggests this is more than just a casual relationship.
But yes, Fisher is correct, other factors support higher asset prices.
Buybacks Affect More Than Just Prices
In 2023, Jason Zweig penned an article for the WSJ stating:
“Over the past five years, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices, big U.S. companies have spent $3.9 trillion repurchasing their own stock. Buybacks are neither bad nor good. They are simply a tool. Just as you can use a hammer either to build a house or knock one down, buybacks are useful in the right corporate hands and dangerous in the wrong ones.“ – Jason Zweig, WSJ
That is a fair statement. The impact of share buybacks is vital to manufacturing earnings growth since we measure earnings on a per-share basis. In other words, if you reduce the number of shares outstanding, corporate earnings "per share" improve, as shown below.
As discussed previously, the annual rate of change in earnings growth is one of the best predictors of forward stock market returns.
However, investors must be cautious about understanding the impact of buybacks on earnings when investing in companies. As Warren Buffett noted:
Finally, an important warning: Even the operating earnings figure we favor can easily be manipulated by managers who wish to do so. Such tampering is often considered sophisticated by CEOs, directors and their advisors. Reporters and analysts embrace its existence as well. Beating ‘expectations’ is heralded as a managerial triumph. That activity is disgusting. It requires no talent to manipulate numbers: Only a deep desire to deceive is required. ‘Bold, imaginative accounting,’ as a CEO once described his deception to me, has become one of the shames of capitalism.“
Why would CEO's want to manipulate earnings? Unsurprisingly, a WSJ survey of CFOs found that 93% pointed to “influence on stock price” and “outside pressure” as the reasons for manipulating earnings figures.
Of course, one misnomer is that corporate CEOs execute buybacks when they believe the stock is undervalued. However, the reality is quite the opposite, and they tend to execute share repurchases when their current optimism is elevated. When share prices decline, and buybacks could be done at accretive prices, there is little incentive to do so.
Conclusion
The evidence is clear: corporate stock buybacks are not a marginal force in markets—they are central to the mechanics of price inflation. When buybacks account for the entire net demand for equities over the last two decades, it’s hard to argue they’re simply “a” factor. They aren’t just reducing supply on paper—they are the demand. Without them, equity valuations would look very different.
But what’s more concerning is the why. Despite the popular narrative that buybacks return capital to shareholders, the data and behavior of corporate management tell a different story. Buybacks overwhelmingly inflate earnings per share and boost short-term stock prices, which are tied directly to executive compensation. That incentive skews the timing and intent of buyback programs away from long-term value creation and toward short-term financial engineering.
To Fisher's credit, markets are complex. Demand, sentiment, interest rates, and macroeconomic factors all matter. However, dismissing buybacks as one variable among many overlooks just how much they dominate equity flows. Their influence is measurable, intentional, and reinforced by corporate leadership's financial incentives.
The question for investors is not whether buybacks matter—they do. The question is whether they’re being used to create real value or mask its absence.
The post Corporate Stock Buybacks – Do They Affect Markets? appeared first on RIA.
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Site: Crisis Magazine
I know it is early in the pontificate of Pope Leo XIV, and maybe it would be a bit too hasty of me to claim any miracles have resulted from it, but something seemingly miraculous happened recently during Pope Leo’s audience with the Eastern Catholic leaders. No, I am not speaking of something like levitation or a miraculous healing but something much more subtle, albeit as improbable as anything…
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Site: Mises InstituteHunt Tooley reveals the shocking story of how artillery, arms dealers, and bankers turned war into profitable, prolonged carnage.
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Site: Mises InstituteThe MMT crowd now claims that the monetary history of the US is an example of chartalism. US history is actually an example of the opposite.
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Site: AsiaNews.itToday's headlines:Polio outbreak in Papua New Guinea;Ceasefire between India and Pakistan holds; Malaysia's economy slows down;Multiple arrests in Thailand linked to building collapse during earthquake.
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Site: Fr. Z's BlogThis is a new Cross…
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Site: Zero HedgeThe Nuclear Missile Launch Sites Buried Under Greenland's Ice RevealedTyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 04:15
Camp Century, part of a secret Pentagon plan called Project Iceworm, was designed in the late 1950s as a hidden network of nuclear missile launch sites beneath Greenland’s ice. Built in 1959 and abandoned by 1967 due to unstable ice, the facility was meant to store 600 medium-range ballistic missiles.
Today, it lies buried under at least 100 feet of ice, according to the Wall Street Journal, who wrote a lengthy piece on the sites this week.
Photos: WSJ
Although presented as a research station, its real military purpose remained classified until 1996. Nina Erofeeva explained: "The first [licenses] have been received for the creation of oil storage facilities, in the Krasnoyarsk territory. This was also an unusual case. Russia has never had oil storage facilities. Oil has always been pumped through pipelines. Given recent events and the lack of infrastructure in the Arctic zone, oil storage facilities are needed in several regions. Accordingly, oil will be placed in these oil storage facilities so as not to burn it during pilot development."
With 21 tunnels stretching nearly two miles under the ice, the base housed around 200 personnel and operated on nuclear power. Robert Weiss, a physician stationed there in the early 1960s, recalled: “We did realize that it was important; that the Russians could come over the top of the Pole.”
Life at Camp Century was harsh but bearable. “When I got there, it was blowing snow and minus 50 degrees,” Weiss said, remembering how he spent weeks underground. “It wasn’t very hard living from that standpoint.” Joking about the isolation, he added: “We used to say that there was a pretty girl behind every tree. Of course, there was one problem: There were no trees.”
Photos: WSJ
The Journal writes that the base’s full scale wasn’t revealed until April last year, when NASA’s cryospheric scientist, Greene, captured the first complete images using advanced ice-penetrating radar. “You see how the buildings and tunnels were connected, how people had to move about in their day-to-day life, and think what a wild experience it must have been to be stationed there,” Greene said.
The U.S. presence in Greenland has long been controversial. During the Cold War, the U.S. operated 17 bases there and stationed about 10,000 troops. Today, fewer than 200 remain at Pituffik Space Base.
Tensions rose again when President Trump openly criticized Denmark for not securing Greenland and even suggested taking the island by force for U.S. security. Denmark reminded Washington of the 1951 treaty that already allows U.S. bases there but firmly rejected any takeover.
Photos: WSJ
Denmark’s uneasy compromise with U.S. military interests goes back to World War II. In 1941, a Danish envoy in Washington handed control of Greenland’s defense to the U.S. without Copenhagen’s consent. After the war, the U.S. offered to buy Greenland for $100 million, but Denmark refused.
“In the 1940s Denmark learned that if you say no to the U.S., the U.S. will go ahead anyway,” said Ulrik Pram Gad of the Danish Institute for International Studies. “Denmark has been allowed to maintain sovereignty over Greenland by outsourcing some of it—security—to the U.S.”
The U.S.’s undisclosed storage of nuclear weapons in Greenland and a 1968 crash of a nuclear-armed B-52 near Thule Air Base caused long-lasting tensions. More recently, reports of increased U.S. espionage and Trump’s interest in buying Greenland have pushed Greenlanders closer to Denmark.
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Site: Zero HedgeUkraine Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill Reportedly In Final StagesTyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 03:30
Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,
Ukraine is reportedly moving closer to adopting Bitcoin as a national reserve asset, a move that could bolster its financial resilience amid the ongoing war with Russia.
Lawmakers are reportedly working on a Bitcoin national reserve proposal, with a draft bill in its final stages, according to Yaroslav Zhelezniak, a member of parliament who confirmed the plan to local media outlet Incrypted.
The proposal was announced during the CRYPTO 2025 conference in Kyiv on Feb. 6.
“We will soon submit a draft law from the industry allowing the creation of crypto reserves,” Zhelezniak said.
Cointelegraph reached out to Zhelezniak for comment on the bill’s status but had not received a response by publication.
Bitcoin has gained international attention as a national reserve asset since the election of US President Donald Trump in November 2024. On March 7, Trump signed an executive order to establish a national Bitcoin reserve seeded with BTC confiscated from criminal cases.
Source: Margo Martin
A month later, Swedish MP Rickard Nordin issued an open letter urging Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson to consider adopting Bitcoin as a national reserve asset, citing its growing recognition as a “hedge against inflation,” Cointelegraph reported on April 11.
Legal challenges may delay adoption
While Ukraine’s push for a national Bitcoin reserve marks a potentially historic shift in crypto policy, it may require “significant legal change,” according to Kyrylo Khomiakov, regional head of CEE, Central Asia and Africa, at crypto exchange Binance.
“We commend Ukraine’s ambition to establish a strategic crypto reserve,” he told Cointelegraph.
“Implementing such a reserve would necessitate significant legal changes, indicating that this process will not be swift.”
He added, “Another positive aspect is that this initiative will likely lead to greater regulatory clarity in Ukraine, as the government will need to articulate its stance more clearly.”
Ukraine was reportedly planning to legalize cryptocurrencies in early 2025 with the finalization of a draft bill in coordination with the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), according to Daniil Getmantsev, head of the tax committee of the Verkhovna Rada.
On April 8, Ukraine’s financial regulator proposed taxing certain crypto transactions as personal income with a rate of up to 23%, excluding crypto-to-crypto transactions and stablecoins.
Not all voices in Ukraine’s crypto industry are optimistic about the timing of the proposal.
”The country is broke. More than 50% of the budget is in grants and loans from the European Union,” said Michael Chobanian, the founder of Ukraine-based Kuna exchange.
“The population is decreasing at the fastest rate in the world. Men are kidnapped and sent to the army against their will. What kind of BTC reserves are we talking about here? This is done only to divert your attention,” Chobanian claimed.
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Site: Mises Institute
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Site: Mises InstituteWhile Democratic Socialism is the darling of the political left, all forms of socialism have come from the brutal model first imposed upon Russia in 1917.
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Site: Zero HedgeGlobal Population Is Projected To Begin Declining In 2085Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 02:45
The global population is undergoing a major demographic shift.
As fertility rates fall and life expectancy rises, average ages are climbing in nearly every country, while population growth is steadily tapering off.
This infographic, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, visualizes global population growth and average age from 1980 to 2100, based on data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, April 2025 edition.
How the World Will Age as Population Growth Falls
As of 2025, the average person is 33.6 years old, up from 26.5 years in 1980. Over that same period, global population growth has slowed from 1.8% to 0.9% in 2025.
This trend is expected to continue through the end of the century, as shown in the table below, which breaks down the projected average age and population growth rate from 1980 to 2100:
Year Average population growth (%) Average population age (years) Lower range of expected population growth (%) Upper range of expected population growth (%) 1980 1.8% 26.5 0.9% 2.9% 1985 1.8% 26.9 0.8% 2.9% 1990 1.8% 27.3 0.8% 2.8% 1995 1.5% 28.0 0.5% 2.6% 2000 1.4% 28.9 0.6% 2.4% 2005 1.3% 29.8 0.5% 2.4% 2010 1.3% 30.7 0.4% 2.4% 2015 1.2% 31.6 0.3% 2.4% 2020 1.0% 32.5 0.2% 2.0% 2025 0.9% 33.6 0.1% 1.9% 2030 0.8% 34.7 0.0% 1.7% 2035 0.7% 35.7 -0.1% 1.6% 2040 0.6% 36.6 -0.2% 1.4% 2045 0.5% 37.4 -0.2% 1.3% 2050 0.4% 38.1 -0.3% 1.1% 2055 0.3% 38.8 -0.4% 1.0% 2060 0.3% 39.5 -0.4% 0.9% 2065 0.2% 40.1 -0.5% 0.8% 2070 0.2% 40.7 -0.5% 0.7% 2075 0.1% 41.2 -0.6% 0.6% 2080 0.0% 41.6 -0.6% 0.5% 2085 0.0% 42.0 -0.6% 0.4% 2090 -0.1% 42.5 -0.6% 0.3% 2095 -0.1% 42.9 -0.6% 0.2% 2100 -0.1% 43.2 -0.7% 0.2%The global population is projected to begin declining in 2085, as the average age rises to 42 years. By the year 2100, the average person is expected to be 43 years old, with population growth at -0.1%.
However, the trend is divided across countries. Advanced economies like Japan, Germany, and Italy are aging rapidly and seeing population declines. Meanwhile, emerging economies like India still have growing populations, but the growth is slowing down.
The gradual decline is largely due to falling fertility rates globally, along with improvements in healthcare and life expectancy resulting in larger senior populations.
The Impacts of an Aging Population
Many economies are reaching their demographic turning points—when the share of the working-age population in their total population begins declining.
European countries like Germany, France, and Italy crossed this mark pre-2000, and are now among the world’s “super-aged societies”. The United States, the U.K., and China have followed in the last two decades.
But what does this mean for economic growth and the global economy?
Population aging carries several economic challenges. These include shrinking labor forces, slower productivity growth, and increased fiscal pressure on pension and healthcare systems.
However, there is a silver lining: the IMF notes that while people are living longer, they’re also aging more healthfully. This could result in longer working lives and enhance productivity among older workers, potentially easing the economic impacts of an aging population.
If you enjoyed this infographic, check out A Visual Breakdown of Where Economic Power Lies in 2025, on the Voronoi app.
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Site: Mises InstituteIlana Mercer dismantles Israel’s "Hasbara" myths, exposing harsh truths behind Gaza’s suffering—and the moral complicity of America in enabling atrocities.
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Site: Novus Ordo Watch
The New Religion expressed architecturally…
Welcome to ‘Paddy’s Wigwam’:
Liverpool Cathedral in All its Glory
image: Shutterstock (trabantos)As we take a break from building our new topical page on ‘Pope Leo XIV’, it’s time for another post showcasing a horrendously ugly Novus Ordo church.
Today’s specimen is the metropolitan cathedral of Liverpool, England. Its official name is Metropolitan Cathedral of Christ the King, although among locals it is also known, more accurately, as “Paddy’s Wigwam”.
On the official cathedral web site we read: “The Metropolitan Cathedral of Christ the King is a dramatic icon of faith, architecture, and human endeavour.… READ MORE
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Site: Novus Ordo Wire – Novus Ordo Watch
The New Religion expressed architecturally…
Welcome to ‘Paddy’s Wigwam’:
Liverpool Cathedral in All its Gloryimage: Shutterstock (trabantos)As we take a break from building our new topical page on ‘Pope Leo XIV’, it’s time for another post showcasing a horrendously ugly Novus Ordo church.
Today’s specimen is the metropolitan cathedral of Liverpool, England. Its official name is Metropolitan Cathedral of Christ the King, although among locals it is also known, more accurately, as “Paddy’s Wigwam”.
On the official cathedral web site we read: “The Metropolitan Cathedral of Christ the King is a dramatic icon of faith, architecture, and human endeavour.… READ MORE
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Site: The Unz ReviewThis video is available on Rumble, Bitchute, Odysee, Telegram, and X. New York is one of the few big cities that still publish crime statistics by race. It used to be common, but you’ll see why most places quietly stopped doing it. This drab looking report is dynamite. For every major crime there is a...
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Site: The Unz ReviewAmerican voters elected Trump president three times. The first election was prevented from producing any results that the people wanted by fake charges of Russia-gate, 2 impeachments, pornstar-gate, documents-gate, insurrection-gate. The second election was stolen by the Democrats and media. The third election is being stolen by the judiciary, which is in the process of...
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Site: The Unz ReviewAs Israel unveils its final genocide push, and mass death from starvation looms in Gaza, western media and politicians are tentatively starting to speak up Who could have imagined 19 months ago that it would take more than a year and a half of Israel slaughtering and starving Gaza’s children for the first cracks to...
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Site: AntiWar.comIf flagship NASA missions like the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope and the Mars Sample Return mission are being cancelled at the same time that defense spending amounts the majority of last year’s increase in global government space investment, that’s a clear signal how the elected officials in Washington view the Final Frontier. At a … Continue reading "America’s Weaponization of Space Continues Whilst NASA Sees Budget Cuts"
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Site: The Unz ReviewThe US House of Representatives Has Passed the MEGOBARI Act (HR 36) that places Georgia, now an independent country and once a province of the Soviet Union, under American protection. Washington has to protect free and fair elections in Georgia from Russia and protect Georgia’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity from further Russian aggression.” There has...
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Site: The Unz ReviewSubmitted as comments by Harald WARNING I have warned you not to publish these ultima verba until long after my death. In my little cemetery, I am now safe from the Marchandeau law, the LICA and the killers of the Israeli secret services. But you, the French of today, your days are numbered. These French...
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Site: The Unz ReviewAl-Andalus Tribune Rumble link Bitchute link Undoubtedly the best-known Muslim journalist working in English, Yvonne Ridley has written for several of the biggest British publications, as well as al-Jazeera and Press TV. She is also an accomplished documentary filmmaker and one of Europe’s best known Muslim human-rights activists. Her books include In the Hands of...
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Site: AntiWar.comLouis Theroux explains in a commentary published by the Guardian why the backlash to his recent film about violent, Israeli state-backed settlers misses the point. His critics say he is unfairly presenting a few marginal “crazies” in Israeli society, who rampage across the West Bank to drive out the native Palestinian population, as significant and … Continue reading "Theroux’s Film on Israel’s Violent Settlers Was a Mirror. Resist the Calls to Look Away"
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Site: The Unz ReviewAntisemitism as we know it has resulted from a complex witch's brew of historical stereotypes, economic resentments, ignorance and political extremism. Antisemites believe that Jewish people "have too much power," "have too much control and influence," and "are more willing than others to use shady practices to get what they want." A central, paranoid canard...
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Site: The Unz ReviewHere is Richard Stengel, a talking head “political analyst” at MSNBC and former blah-blah person in the Obama regime. Apparently, the Democrats are blocking white South Africans from refuge status in the United States. Stengel’s excuse, explained in the video, is that South Africa was once an apartheid state. That was three decades ago before...
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Site: RT - News
The US president’s critic has been accused of making a coded endorsement of violence
The US Secret Service is investigating former FBI director James Comey for making a threat against President Donald Trump, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem has said. Comey, a longtime critic of Trump, has denied that his cryptic, now-deleted Instagram post was a call for an assassination.
On Thursday, Comey posted an image of seashells that formed the number “8647.” He captioned the image with “cool shell formation on my beach walk.”
Trump administration officials and Republican politicians quickly interpreted the image as a threat to the 47th president. Several media outlets cited the Merriam-Webster dictionary, which defines that “86” is a slang term for “to throw out,” “to get rid of,” or “to kill.” According to Newsweek, the number is a mafia term for taking someone “eight miles out of town” and putting them “six feet under.”
“Disgraced former FBI Director James Comey just called for the assassination of Trump,” Noem wrote on X. She added that the Department of Homeland Security and Secret Service are “investigating this threat and will respond appropriately.” Fox News Digital cited a source in the Secret Service as saying they will send agents to investigate and interview the ex-FBI chief.
Just James Comey causally calling for my dad to be murdered.
— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) May 15, 2025
This is who the Dem-Media worships. Demented!!!! pic.twitter.com/4LUK6crHATFBI Director Kash Patel said the bureau will “provide all necessary support” to the Secret Service in investigating what he said was Comey’s post “directed at President Trump.”
Read more
White House Deputy Chief of Staff Taylor Budowich argued that Comey’s post “can clearly be interpreted as ‘a hit’ on the sitting President of the United States.” Donald Trump Jr. claimed that Comey was “casually calling for my dad to be murdered.”
US teen plotted to kill Trump and flee to Ukraine – FBI
Comey has since taken down the image. “I posted earlier a picture of some shells I saw today on a beach walk, which I assumed were a political message,” he wrote on Instagram. “I didn’t realize some folks associate those numbers with violence. It never occurred to me but I oppose violence of any kind so I took the post down.”
Trump fired Comey during his first term in office. He accused the former FBI head of spreading lies about him as part of what he called a politically motivated “witch hunt.”
Donald Trump survived two assassination attempts during his 2024 reelection campaign. In July, a gunman opened fire at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, grazing Trump’s ear with a bullet and killing a spectator. In September, a second would-be assassin was discovered camping outside Trump’s golf course in Florida.
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Site: non veni pacem
Pope Paul IV Apostolic Constitution Cum Ex Apostolic Officio of February 15, 1559:
6. In addition, [by this Our Constitution, which is to remain valid in perpetuity We enact, determine, decree and define:] that if ever at any time it shall appear that any Bishop, even if he be acting as an Archbishop, Patriarch or Primate; or any Cardinal of the aforesaid Roman Church, or, as has already been mentioned, any legate, or even the Roman Pontiff, prior to his promotion or his elevation as Cardinal or Roman Pontiff, has deviated from the Catholic Faith or fallen into some heresy:
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- (i) the promotion or elevation, even if it shall have been uncontested and by the unanimous assent of all the Cardinals, shall be null, void and worthless;
(ii) it shall not be possible for it to acquire validity (nor for it to be said that it has thus acquired validity) through the acceptance of the office, of consecration, of subsequent authority, nor through possession of administration, nor through the putative enthronement of a Roman Pontiff, or Veneration, or obedience accorded to such by all, nor through the lapse of any period of time in the foregoing situation;
(iii) it shall not be held as partially legitimate in any way;
(iv) to any so promoted to be Bishops, or Archbishops, or Patriarchs, or Primates or elevated as Cardinals, or as Roman Pontiff, no authority shall have been granted, nor shall it be considered to have been so granted either in the spiritual or the temporal domain;
(v) each and all of their words, deeds, actions and enactments, howsoever made, and anything whatsoever to which these may give rise, shall be without force and shall grant no stability whatsoever nor any right to anyone;
(vi) those thus promoted or elevated shall be deprived automatically, and without need for any further declaration, of all dignity, position, honour, title, authority, office and power.
7. Finally, [by this Our Constitution, which is to remain valid in perpetuity, We] also [enact, determine, define and decree]: that any and all persons who would have been subject to those thus promoted or elevated if they had not previously deviated from the Faith, become heretics, incurred schism or provoked or committed any or all of these, be they members of anysoever of the following categories: the Cardinals, even those who shall have taken part in the election of this very Pontiff previously deviating from the Faith or heretical or schismatical, or shall otherwise have consented and vouchsafed obedience to him and shall have venerated him;
Castellans, Prefects, Captains and Officials, even of Our Beloved City and of the entire Ecclesiastical State, even if they shall be obliged and beholden to those thus promoted or elevated by homage, oath or security; shall be permitted at any time to withdraw with impunity from obedience and devotion to those thus promoted or elevated and to avoid them as warlocks, heathens, publicans, and heresiarchs (the same subject persons, nevertheless, remaining bound by the duty of fidelity and obedience to any future Bishops, Archbishops, Patriarchs, Primates, Cardinals and Roman Pontiff canonically entering).
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Site: Zero HedgeLethal Lidar: Volvo SUV's Infrared Beam Fries Smartphone CameraTyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 17:35
High-powered lidar systems—commonly used in autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles—emit infrared laser beams to map their environments. While invisible to the human eye, these beams can damage smartphone camera sensors, as one Reddit user recently discovered the hard way.
Reddit user Jeguetelli recently shared a video on the r/Volvo subreddit showing a smartphone camera's image sensor being fried after filming the front-mounted lidar sensor on the Volvo EX90—a fully electric, seven-seat luxury SUV that serves as Volvo's flagship entry into the electric vehicle market.
"Never film the new Ex90 because you will break your cell camera.Lidar lasers burn your camera," Jeguetelli wrote.
Auto blog The Drive pointed out, "It should be said that the risk here is inherent to lidar technology, and has nothing to do with Volvo's specific implementation on the EX90. In fact, earlier this year, the automaker even issued a warning against directing external cameras at the vehicle's lidar pod for the very reasons discussed."
Filming this car's lidar system breaks the phone camerapic.twitter.com/99rfffYS1l
— Interesting things (@awkwardgoogle) May 14, 2025Volvo's website states:
Lidar light waves can damage external cameras: Do not point a camera directly at the lidar. The lidar, being a laser based system, uses infrared light waves that may cause damage to certain camera devices. This can include smartphones or phones equipped with a camera.
"Would this damage your car's backup camera, if a LIDAR equipped car tailgates you?" one Redditor asked.
Another person said, "Thank god for Apple Care."
The ongoing debate in the tech world centers on LiDAR vs. cameras—a big divide in the race toward fully autonomous vehicles, especially when comparing Tesla's camera-only approach to rivals embracing LiDAR.
Elon Musk famously called LiDAR a "crutch," arguing that camera vision powered by advanced AI is sufficient for FSD.
"In my view, it's a crutch that will drive companies to a local maximum that they will find very hard to get out of." Musk said several years ago, adding, "Perhaps I am wrong, and I will look like a fool. But I am quite certain that I am not."
The Counterargument: Tesla's competitors argue that LiDAR provides critical redundancy and reliability, especially for safety-critical applications like robotaxis.
The proliferation of LiDAR sensors on vehicles should come with a public service warning: avoid pointing smartphone cameras at these devices emitting infrared laser beams—they can permanently damage image sensors.
Also, will LiDAR risk burning camera sensors on Tesla vehicles?
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Site: southern orders
No one commented on this yesterday. Pope Leo is nice, but His Holiness will also mean business like Leo XIII!Over a century ago, Leo XIII pointed out that “preserving the Eastern rites is more important than is generally realized”. He went so far as to decree that “any Latin-Rite missionary, whether a member of the secular or regular clergy, who by advice or support draws any Eastern-Rite Catholic to the Latin Rite” ought to be “dismissed and removed from his office”.
And in another sign of discontinuity with Francis, sources report the following about Leo’s humble reception of papal dignity and traditions. NO SELFIES WITH HIS HOLINESS!
Vatican City - In these first, intense days of the pontificate of Leo XIV, a gesture as simple as it is eloquent has aroused attention among the clergy and the faithful: the new Pope has declined, with the grace and delicacy that distinguish him, the request to take selfies. It happened with journalists and also with representatives of the Eastern Churches and in an era in which everything seems to be reduced to image, immediacy and visibility, this refusal sounds like a powerful invitation to reflection. On some occasions, the Pontiff simply pointed out that the cameras already present are more than enough; on others, he preferred that a third person take the photo, thus avoiding the self-referential dynamic of the selfie.
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Site: Zero HedgeUkraine Will Never Recognize Occupied Territories As Russia, Zelensky Says From TurkeyTyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 14:20
Update(1105ET): "We don’t yet know the official level of Russians, but from what we see, it looks phony," Zelensky told reporters in Ankara. So despite the Ukrainian leader earlier declaring "I am here" upon landing in Turkey, he is not in fact at the Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul.
This 'I am here' yet not actually 'there' charade generated some contradictory headlines earlier on Thursday. Zelensky continues his performative gestures aimed at impressing one man: Trump. He even explained that he is sending Defense Minister Rustem Umerov to head the Ukrainian delegation for the Istanbul meeting, now likely underway, out of respect for Trump and the peace process he initiated.
The Kremlin side meanwhile says it's ready to make compromises:
The head of the Russian delegation in Istanbul, Vladimir Medinsky, told Russian state media RIA that Moscow was “ready for discussions.”
“We are ready for discussions, for resuming the Istanbul negotiations; we are prepared for possible compromises and their discussion,” Medinsky said, referring to the last known direct talks between Russia and Ukraine that took place in Istanbul in the spring of 2022.
But apparently not on the table is the only thing which could actually end this tragic war - territorial concessions:
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv will never recognize parts of Ukraine that are currently occupied as parts of Russia, as he confirmed peace talks are set to go ahead.
“In all discussions – and I emphasize this – and this is my unwavering position – we do not legally recognize any of our temporarily occupied territories as Russian. This is the Ukrainian land,” Zelensky told journalists.
Still, the fact the two sides are even at the same table in Istanbul is a huge development and start.
⚡️ Russia delegation has been empowered to negotiate with Ukrainian side — Vladimir Medinsky reacts to the lull in Istanbul talks
— RT (@RT_com) May 15, 2025
'We view these talks as a continuation of negotiations BROKEN by Ukraine 3 years ago pic.twitter.com/Kacw5hhDRMAnd again, everything Zelensky is doing appears designed to signal Trump - in order to keep America as Kiev's top weapons backer. "Despite the relatively low level of the Russian delegation, out of respect for President Trump, out of respect for the high level of the Turkish delegation and for President Erdogan, we still want to try to take at least the first steps towards a ceasefire, so I have decided to send our delegation to Istanbul now," Zelensky said further.
Zelensky says he is sending defense minister Umerov for direct talks with the Russians in Istanbul, so that nobody (he means Trump) could accuse Ukraine of not trying to reach peace.
— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) May 15, 2025* * *
Russian President Vladimir Putin's investment envoy and close aide, Kirill Dmitriev, has praised US President Donald Trump for putting together Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul, the first such direct dialogue between the warring countries since early 2022.
Trump and his team have "made the impossible possible" by bringing Moscow and Kiev to the table. Dmitriev further wrote on X that the Istanbul meeting is happening "against all odds/fierce resistance" and that if "not derailed last-minute, this could be a historic step to peace."
Dmitriev also specifically named Vice President J.D. Vance, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio - the latter two who are present in Istanbul - as major contributors to the mediation effort. The Kremlin had spent the opening years of the conflict blasting the Biden administration for constantly stoking the war and thwarting dialogue, taking Washington-Moscow relations to new historic lows.
Via Anadolu Agency
As we noted earlier, Ukraine's President Zelensky is actually in Turkey, where he's set to meet with President Erdogan - but separately in the capital of Ankara, and has boasted that "I am here" and that Putin is not. Zelensky has even called the Russian delegation, largely composed of junior officials, "phony".
President Trump meanwhile, while attending meetings in Qatar, was asked by a reporter why the American leader is not himself present in Turkey for the talks:
"Why would he go if I’m not going?"
"I wasn’t planning to go and I didn’t think he would if I didn’t."
"But we have people there. Marco's doing a fantastic job, Marco's there..."
It remains that Putin has little reason or incentive to go, with war analysts widely recognizing that he remains in the driver's seat militarily, and with Ukrainian forces against the ropes.
‘Why would he go if I’m not going?’: Trump reacts to Putin sitting out Istanbul talks
— Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) May 15, 2025
“I wasn’t planning to go and I didn’t think he would if I didn’t.” pic.twitter.com/4YvqvO8gWhZelensky has until now offered no major concessions, and issues like permanent control over Crimea and the four eastern territories remain sticking points for Moscow. Thus there are unlikely to be any major breakthroughs in Istanbul, but the fact that the two sides are even at the table is a big accomplishment.
Below is an important rundown of what's expected in Istanbul and what's at stake for both sides, excerpted from fresh Responsible Statecraft analysis, Istanbul 2.0: know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em:
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What has changed since then?
Ukraine will enter the Istanbul talks in a weaker position that it held in 2022.
Western support for Ukraine financially and economically is not as sound as it was then. No big ticket economic aid and assistance has been made available since the G7 agreement of a $50 billion package of loans, in June 2024. While European states scratched together new economic aid to Ukraine in April, this cannot make up for the reduction in US support.
In territorial terms, Russia withdrew from Kyiv as a concession to the first Istanbul talks and lost ground in Kharkiv and in Kherson in late 2022. However, Russia has gone on steadily to gain further territory in the Donbas since the end of 2023. So while both sides have scores on the board, Russia now maintains the military upper hand on the battlefield and that seems unlikely to change. These two factors in particular were behind President Trump’s February assertion that Ukraine has no cards to play.
What has stayed the same?
NATO membership is still off the table
The verified documents shared by the New York Times last June confirmed that Ukraine’s neutrality and non-membership of NATO was the central issue agreed upon in 2022. Ukraine was ready to become a “permanently neutral state” that would never join NATO or allow foreign forces to be based on its soil.
There seems no route for Ukraine to resile from that given its currently weakened negotiating position and President Trump’s stated view that NATO membership for Ukraine is not practical. Although Germany’s new foreign Minister, Johann Wadephul recently repeated the line that Ukraine’s path to NATO is irreversible, most have agreed, privately and publicly, that Ukraine’s path to NATO is a fraught if not impossible one.
Right now, just having the talks is a huge breakthrough
The Istanbul talks would not be happening had the Trump administration not pushed for it so hard. We don’t need to rehash the “did they or didn’t they” debate around why Ukraine abandoned the Istanbul agreement in April 2022. What is clear, is that Ukraine became entrenched, not only in not negotiating with Russia, but in excluding Russia from all discussions on peace in Ukraine from then onward.
Having agreed in principle for Ukraine to accept neutral status Zelensky was pushing his own ten point peace plan. This included, among other things, Russia withdrawing its troops to the pre-2014 border, i.e. giving up Crimea and the Donbass and creating a Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture, by which he meant Ukraine joining NATO. Peace summits were organized in various countries that explicitly excluded Russia, culminating in the Switzerland event on June 15, 2024.
At this event, President Zelensky was dug in deeper on resisting any engagement with Russia until a full withdrawal of its troops from Ukraine, which was a completely unrealistic proposal. “Russia can start negotiations with us even tomorrow without waiting for anything – if they leave our legal territories,” he said.
Even after President Trump was elected, European leaders clung to the line that “only Ukraine can decide what peace means.”’ I see no circumstances in which a Kamala Harris presidency would have cajoled President Zelensky to enter into negotiations. Tomorrow’s talks wouldn’t be happening unless the Trump administration broke a whole load of Ukrainian and European eggshells to get to this point.
Source: Anadolu Agency
And Responsible Statecraft continues:
The biggest issue now is territory
Even though he was wrongly derided at the time by mainstream media, Steve Witkoff correctly pointed out in his March interview with Tucker Carlson that the territorial issues in Ukraine will be most intractable. Russia’s decision in October 2022 to formally annex the four oblasts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk changed the calculus. However, Russia does not have full territorial control of any of those oblasts, which are cut through the middle by a hotly contested front line.
Resolving the line of control when the war ends is, by some margin, the most problematic challenge. This will be a hugely sensitive topic, and European allies will shoot down any major concessions to Russia, as they did when the idea surfaced that the U.S.might de jure recognise Russia’s occupation of Crimea.
The most obvious settlement is a de facto recognition of occupation, a Cyprus-style scenario, that does not stand in the way of Ukraine’s future membership of the European Union. Even that will require detailed agreement on issues around demilitarization of the line of control and enforcing any ceasefire.
Sanctions are probably tricky, but also tractable
As I have said before, there is enormous scope to a plan that allows for the immediate lifting of the bulk of zero-impact measures, phasing out the remainder at points agreed to by both sides. The toughest issue remains the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, mostly held in Belgium. Russia has shown a willingness to concede this funding to support reconstruction in Ukraine, including those parts that Russia occupies.
But there is texture here. Freeing up those funds for reconstruction would immediately remove the source of interest payments that are meeting Ukraine’s obligations on its $50 billion in debt to the G7, agreed to in June 2024. But the more general policy question arises, how much of the freed up funding would be spent in Ukraine itself and how much in Russian-occupied Ukraine, where most of the war damage has occurred? The U.S. must keep the pressure on to ensure the talks stay on track.
A U.S. presence in Istanbul will be vital, to prevent, in particular, Ukraine from bailing on the talks. That’s why sending Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg makes sense. The former is trusted by the Russian side while the latter has built relationships in Ukraine. Their presence serves to keep the process moving forward until a deal can be pushed over the line and the fighting can stop.
Bear in mind that the 2022 talks ran for a month and a half and the circumstances have materially changed as I have indicated above. While there has been speculation that President Trump might drop into Istanbul, I am not sure that this is necessary if President Putin doesn’t himself attend. Knowing the Russians, I assess that Putin will want his own “‘meeting moment” with the U.S. President on terms that the Russian side can better choreograph. Indeed, that may be a prize for Russia’s engagement in the process, given its desire for a more comprehensive reset of relations with the U.S.
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Site: Zero HedgeTrump Admin Urges Supreme Court To Permit DOGE Access To Social Security RecordsTyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 14:05
Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The Department of Justice urged the Supreme Court on May 13 to let the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have access to Social Security data after lower courts blocked that access.
The U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on April 3, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times
President Donald Trump issued Executive Order 14158 on Jan. 20, implementing DOGE, an advisory body that recommends cost-cutting measures. The order directed the entity to “implement the President’s DOGE Agenda, by modernizing Federal technology and software to maximize governmental efficiency and productivity.”
Solicitor General D. John Sauer argued in the new filing that the lower courts have overreached and are attempting to turn themselves into “the human resources department for the Executive Branch.”
The filing came after Ellen Lipton Hollander, a Maryland-based federal district court judge, issued an order on March 20 preventing DOGE from viewing Social Security Administration (SSA) records because such access “violates” the federal Privacy Act.
The lawsuit was brought in February by labor unions and retirees represented by the Democracy Forward Foundation.
“The DOGE Team is essentially engaged in a fishing expedition at SSA, in search of a fraud epidemic, based on little more than suspicion. It has launched a search for the proverbial needle in the haystack, without any concrete knowledge that the needle is actually in the haystack,” the judge wrote in granting a temporary restraining order against the federal government.
DOGE’s team at the Social Security Administration has had “unbridled access to the personal and private data of millions of Americans, including but not limited to Social Security numbers, medical records, mental health records, hospitalization records, drivers’ license numbers, bank and credit card information, tax information, income history, work history, birth and marriage certificates, and home and work addresses,” Hollander wrote.
Hollander directed DOGE to delete any personally identifiable data in its possession. On April 17, Hollander upgraded the temporary restraining order to a preliminary injunction.
On April 30, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit voted 9–6 to maintain Hollander’s order while the appeal process continues.
On May 2, the Trump administration filed an emergency appeal with the Supreme Court, asking the justices to pause the preliminary injunction.
In the May 13 filing, Sauer argued that the district court erred in preventing “the 11 members of the Social Security Administration (SSA) DOGE team—from accessing data ... for purposes that are unquestionably lawful.”
The district court “dictated to the Executive Branch which government employees can access which data and even prescribed necessary training, background checks, and paperwork for data access,” Sauer wrote.
“When district courts attempt to transform themselves into the human resources department for the Executive Branch, the irreparable harm to the government is clear,” he wrote.
When the courts “stymie the government’s initiatives to modernize badly outdated systems and combat rampant fraud—leaving those initiatives on a litigation track that may halt them for months or years—the irreparable harm is even clearer.”
Reviewing Social Security Administration data is important because the agency has “one of the largest documented histories of improper payments,” Sauer stated.
In a brief in opposition filed on May 12, the lead respondent, the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, said that after years of honoring “its data security obligations,” the Social Security Administration “now seeks to throw open its data systems to unauthorized (and often unvetted) personnel who have no demonstrated need for the personally identifiable information ... they seek.”
The April 17 preliminary injunction should be left in place because it is “narrow and, contrary to the government’s assertions, permits SSA to disclose both anonymized and non-anonymized data to DOGE Team members,” the brief said.
The Supreme Court could rule on the government’s emergency application at any time.
Jack Phillips contributed to this report.
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Site: Zero HedgeDemocratic Senators Remove Trump-Targeting Provisions In Push To Pass Stablecoin BillTyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 12:05
The US Senate could pass a key bipartisan stablecoin bill as soon as next week after removing language targeting President Donald Trump and his family’s sprawling crypto interests.
As Jesse Coghlan reports below for CoinTelegraph, Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis said onstage at an event by Coinbase’s lobbying arm, Stand With Crypto, that she thinks it's a “fair target” to have the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act, or GENIUS Act, passed by May 26 — Memorial Day in the US.
Joining her onstage was Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, who hinted that the bill’s language was changed to scrap provisions that targeted Trump’s various crypto projects, which include memecoins, a crypto platform, a stablecoin and a crypto mining company that plans to go public, among others.
“When this language comes out, people will see really good refinement, a lot of progress, on things like consumer protection, and bankruptcy protection, and ethics,” Gillibrand said.
“Things beyond just ‘what’s the structure?’ and ‘what’s required for an issuer?’”
Senate Democrats pulled support for the bill on May 8 and stalled its momentum, airing concerns that it wouldn’t help address multiple crypto-tied deals that will personally enrich Trump.
“A lot of what President Trump is engaged in is already illegal,” Gillibrand said.
“I also think his issuance of a memecoin is illegal based on current law.”
“It’s literally offering anyone who wants to curry favor with the administration to just send him money — that’s about as illegal as it gets.”
“I’m not so worried about this bill having to deal with all President Trump’s ethics problems. What this bill is really intended to do is regulate the entire space of stablecoins,” she added.
Source: Brian Armstrong
Gillibrand said the revised bill includes “some ethics requirements,” but it was “not an ethics bill.”
“If we were dealing with all President Trump’s ethics problems, it would be a very long and detailed bill,” she added.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, also on stage, was hopeful the Senate would vote on the stablecoin bill “early next week.”
Armstrong, whose company cozied up to Trump by donating $1 million to his inauguration fund, declined to comment when asked if the President’s memecoin could impact the passage of bipartisan crypto bills.
“It’s not my place to really comment on President Trump’s activity,” he said.
“What I do think is important is that this bill remains focused on stablecoins.”
Crypto bills “absolutely critical” to pass before midterms
The crypto industry is pushing for Congress to pass the GENIUS Act and a Republican-drafted crypto market structure bill before the midterm elections on Nov. 3, 2026, where all 435 House seats and a third of the 100 Senate seats are up for election.
“We have a very narrow window to get legislation through between now and the midterms,” Marta Belcher, the president of the crypto lobby group the Blockchain Association, told Cointelegraph at the Consensus conference in Toronto.
“I strongly suspect that window is going to close very quickly. I don't know if we're going to get another window like this to get legislation through,” she added.
“It's absolutely critical that we get it through now, especially because there really is a real possibility that in the future we end up with an administration that is hostile to crypto.”
The association’s communications director, Chris Jonas, added that it’s critical the bills pass before Congress takes a recess for the month of August.
“Once you get into the calendar year of the midterms, historically not a lot of legislation moves, so that's why it’s so critical,” he explained.
Trump should be on track to sign both crypto bills before the August break, according to Bo Hines, the executive director of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets.
Hines noted on stage at Consensus on May 13 that negotiations on both bills are still ongoing, but it was “the President's desire” to sign both “stablecoin legislation and market structure legislation before the August recess."
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Site: Zero Hedge"Patience To See, Not To Guess"Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 11:50
By Benjamin Picton, Rabobank Senior Macro Strategist
Patience To See
Tech names drove the NASDAQ and S&P500 to further gains yesterday, while the Dow Jones fell for a second-straight session. Semiconductors performed especially well as fund managers caught underweight high-beta US megacaps continued a buying spree that was sparked by a 90-day tariff reduction between the US and China announced on Monday. Nvidia posted a 4.16% gain and AMD was up 4.68% as both companies inked deals with Saudi Arabia to sell more chips for AI applications. European stocks underperformed with most major indexes closing lower, and the Nikkei fell as funds flowed back into Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index and China’s CSI300.
While stocks were rising, US 10-year bond yields poked back above the psychological 4.50% level to close the day up 6bps at 4.54%. 30-year Treasury yields closed half a bip below the intraday highs at 4.98%, which means that yields on both the 10-year and the 30-year are now trading above the levels that were in effect on April 9th when the Trump administration apparently cried “uncle!” in response to bond market pressure and kicked the implementation of reciprocal tariffs into the long grass for 90 days.
Perhaps we are about to find out whether it really was rising bond yields that forced the about face on those reciprocal tariffs, or if Scott Bessent has some other rabbit to pull out of his hat to force long yields lower. Rising bond yields is a problem for America’s chief bond salesman who has trillions of Dollars’ worth of debt to refinance in the months ahead. With the Fed still engaged in quantitative tightening, and enormous budget deficits still being run (despite DOGE), Bessent is going to have to work hard to sniff out other bids, and US homebuyers better hope that he can convince offshore investors that Treasuries yielding 4.5-5% are just too juicy to last. One wonders how durable the rally in long-duration tech can be while yields on long bonds are making new highs.
Fed Speakers yesterday offered no help to the Treasury Secretary by giving the impression that there is no rush to cut the Fed Funds rate any further. Mary Daly said that the Fed had to have “patience to see, not to guess”, which seems to discount the possibility of any kind of pre-emptive policy action. Daly also said that if you take a step back from all the tariff uncertainty the underlying economy is experiencing solid growth, with a strong labor market and declining inflation. That assessment might be a little bit like saying that the Dinosaurs were in really good shape if you ignore the uncertain effects of the approaching meteor.
In the land of hard data, the US economy shrank in Q1 because of a surge in imports that could be replicated in Q2 as the 90-day reprieve on China tariffs encourages importers and retailers to “reload the gun” on goods inventories. Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is the definition of a recession, but get ready for plenty of commentators to suggest that this one doesn’t really count (it wouldn’t be the first time!).
Meanwhile, President Trump continues his dealmaking tour of the Middle East where Qatar has now reportedly agreed to purchase as many as 210 new jets from Boeing. This comes off the back of the semiconductor, energy and military hardware deals signed in Saudi Arabia, Trump’s announcement that sanctions on Syria will be lifted and his meeting with the new Syrian President, who he urged to normalize relations with Israel.
It’s worth pointing out that while the markets were mostly focused on deals to sell more US chips and US energy, there were also announcements of new sanctions on companies facilitating the sale of Iranian oil to China and a new guidance issued by the Commerce Department that the use of Huawei’s Ascend AI chips “anywhere in the world” constituted a violation of US export controls.
As this Daily noted yesterday, 90-day tariff reduction notwithstanding, what is happening in the Middle East and with trade more broadly should serve as a signal that geopolitical competition between the United States and China isn’t going away.
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Site: Zero HedgeTrump Very Displeased With Tim Cook's 'Made-In-India' iPhone Blitz, Wants Production In USTyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 11:30
Apple is turbocharging its "friend-shoring" strategy by shifting more iPhone production from China to India—a move that could soon result in American consumers purchasing iPhones made in India. However, during President Trump's Gulf tour, he expressed new concern over the supply chain shift (at least for the first time publicly), urging Apple CEO Tim Cook to re-shore some of that iPhone production to the United States.
"I had a little problem with Tim Cook yesterday," Trump told reporters in Qatar on Thursday, on his latest leg of his Middle East tour. The president said his problem centers around Indian factories producing a "majority" of iPhones for the U.S.
Trump criticized Cook's plan: "I said to him,' My friend, I treated you very well. You're coming here with $500 billion, but now I hear you're building all over India.' I don't want you building in India."
As a result of their meeting, Trump said Apple will be "upping their production in the United States."
"I told Tim Cook we're not interested in you building (Apple) in India, they can take care of themselves, you up your production here (US)," claimed Trump. He added that India was one of the highest tariff-imposing countries & has now made an offer to reduce tariffs significantly… pic.twitter.com/11p9okfjTg
— CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18News) May 15, 2025Earlier in the week, in the first leg of his tour, Trump praised Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang at the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum in Riyadh, saying: "Tim Cook isn't here, but you are."
Trump's comments follow a recent Financial Times report indicating that Apple's friend-shoring strategy could result in as many as 60 million iPhones being produced in India by 2026—or the amount required to satisfy the U.S. market.
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Apple Races To Boost iPhone Production In India, Vietnam As Trump Pauses Tariffs
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Apple Turbocharges Friendshoring: Your Next iPhone Could Be Made In India
Apple does not produce smartphones in North America but has pledged to invest $500 billion in the U.S. market over the next four years.
Wall Street analysts have estimated that U.S. iPhone production would take years and cost tens of billions of dollars.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently spoke with Cook about ramping up iPhone production in the U.S. Cook told Lutnick that "robotic arms" would be needed for production lines.
Lutnick said, "He's going to build it here," adding, "And Americans are going to be the technicians who drive those factories. They're not going to be the ones screwing it in."
Wedbush Securities recently estimated that a fully American-made iPhone could cost as much as $3,500, compared to the current average price of around $1,000. There are reports the next model could see the first price hike since the 2017 debut of the iPhone X.
Next lineup of iPhone...
Tarun Pathak, research director at tech analytics firm Counterpoint, said Trump's comments are a "familiar tactic from the president. He wants to push Apple to localize more and build a supply chain in the U.S., which is not going to happen overnight," adding, "Making in the US will also be much more expensive than assembling iPhones in India."
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Site: Zero HedgeUS Factory Production Tumbled In April, But...Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 10:10
Headline industrial production held steady in April, driven by utilities production, while manufacturing production declined 0.4% due to decreased production of vehicles and nondurable goods.
Source: Bloomberg
The 0.4% decrease in manufacturing production (followed an upwardly revised 0.4% gain a month earlier) was the first decline since October 2024 and worse than the expected 0.3% decline...
Source: Bloomberg
However, as the chart above shows, despite the decline, upward revisions raised production by 1.2% YoY - the biggest rise since Oct 2022 (tariff-front-running?).
Output at utilities increased, while mining and energy extraction dropped.
The decrease in April factory output reflected declining production of motor vehicles, computers and apparel.
The Fed’s report showed capacity utilization at factories, a measure of potential output being used, fell to 76.8%.
Does April's decline mean we reached peak tariff-front-running? And will that drag down 'hard' data?
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Site: Zero Hedge"A Modest Request": The Supreme Court Hears Challenge To National Or Universal InjunctionsTyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 09:40
Today, the United States Supreme Court will hear three consolidated cases in Trump v. CASA on the growing use of national or universal injunctions. This is a matter submitted on the “shadow docket” and the underlying cases concern the controversy over “birthright citizenship.” However, the merits of those claims are not at issue. Instead, the Trump Administration has made a “modest request” for the Court to limit the scope of lower-court injunctions to their immediate districts and parties, challenging the right of such courts to bind an Administration across the nation.
The case is the consolidation of three matters: Trump v. CASA out of Maryland; Trump v. Washington out of Washington State, and Trump v. New Jersey, out of Massachusetts. These cases also present standing issues since the Administration challenges the argument that there is a cognizable “injury” to individuals who may travel to the states bringing the actions.
However, the main question is the scope of injunctions.
As I have previously written, district court judges have issued a record number of injunctions in the first 100 days of the Trump Administration.
Under President George W. Bush, there were only six such injunctions, which increased to 12 under Obama.
However, when Trump came to office, he faced 64 such orders in his first term.
When Biden and the Democrats returned to office, it fell back to 14.
That was not due to more modest measures.
Biden did precisely what Trump did in seeking to negate virtually all of his predecessors’ orders and then seek sweeping new legal reforms. He was repeatedly found to have violated the Constitution, but there was no torrent of preliminary injunctions at the start of his term.
Yet, when Trump returned to office, the number of national injunctions soared again in the first 100 days and surpassed the number for the entirety of Biden’s term.
This is a rare argument.
First, it is a shadow docket filing that usually results in summary decisions without oral argument. Moreover, this matter came after what is commonly viewed as the final day for oral arguments. The Court granted a rare late oral argument, reflecting that multiple justices view this matter sufficiently serious to warrant a break from standard operating procedures.
Rather than arguing a “question presented” on birthright citizenship, the Administration is solely looking for limits on the district courts as appeals continue on the “important constitutional questions” raised by birthright citizenship.
The Administration argues that the Constitution does not give judges the power to issue universal injunctions and that courts are limited to addressing the cases before them in a given district. The Administration acknowledges that class actions can create the basis for universal injunctions, offering a moderate resolution to the Court. In such cases, if the parties can meet the standard for a national class, they can seek a national or universal injunction.
In today’s arguments (which I will be covering for Fox and on X), we can expect to hear from justices who have previously been critical of universal injunctions, including Justice Clarence Thomas, who, in his concurring opinion in Trump v. Hawaii, called them “legally and historically dubious.”
Likewise, Justices Gorsuch and Alito have criticized such injunctions. In a prior dissent to an emergency filing in Department of State v. AIDS Vaccine Advocacy Coalition, Alito was joined by Thomas, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh in stating that the government “has a strong argument that the District Court’s order violates the principle that a federal court may not issue an equitable remedy that is ‘more burdensome than necessary to’ redress the plaintiff’s injuries.”
Many of us will be watching three members the most closely: Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justices Elena Kagan and Amy Coney Barrett. Roberts is the ultimate institutionalist, and we should see in his argument how he views the impact of such injunctions on the court system as a whole. He is very protective of the courts’ inherent authority but may also have misgivings about the scope of these orders.
During the Biden Administration, Justice Kagan has previously criticized universal injunctions. In an interview at Northwestern University Law School, Kagan flagged the “forum shopping” by litigants in filing cases before favorable courts:
“You look at something like that and you think, that can’t be right. In the Trump years, people used to go to the Northern District of California, and in the Biden years, they go to Texas. It just can’t be right that one district judge can stop a nationwide policy in its tracks and leave it stopped for the years that it takes to go through the normal process.”
Justice Barrett previously joined with Kavanaugh in stating that the power of district courts to enter a universal injunction “is an important question that could warrant our review in the future.”
The argument today will start at 10 am and I will be doing a running review of the arguments on X.
U.S. Solicitor General D. John Sauer will argue the government’s case.
Jeremy Feigenbaum, New Jersey’s solicitor general, will argue for the state and local governments and Kelsi Corkran, the Supreme Court director at Georgetown’s Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection, will argue for the private individuals and groups.
Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University where he teaches a course on the Supreme Court and the Constitution.
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Site: Zero HedgeWhite House Has Presented Iran With Written Nuke Deal Proposal In Huge FirstTyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 09:19
Update(10:30ET): With President Trump and his envoy having arrived in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for the last leg of the president's Gulf tour, new details of behind the scenes US-Iran negotiations have come to light on Thursday.
In a huge first, the Trump White House has sent Iran a written proposal toward forging a new nuclear deal. White House envoy Steve Witkoff has led several rounds of talks, and Axios has revealed that the communication was issued to Tehran last Sunday.
"Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi took the proposal back to Tehran for consultations with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, President Masoud Pezeshkian and other top officials," writes Axios.
Via Associated Press
It was the Iranian side which initiated the swap of written proposals first, as the talks which have been on since April went from 'indirect' to more 'direct':
- During the third round of talks in late April, Araghchi gave Witkoff an updated document with Iranian ideas for a nuclear deal. This time, Witkoff took the document.
- A U.S. team of experts studied it and sent the Iranians a list of questions and requests for clarification. The Iranians replied and added questions of their own, two sources said.
- Meanwhile, Witkoff and his team prepared a U.S. proposal laying out the Trump administration's parameters for an Iranian civilian nuclear program and requirements for monitoring and verification, the sources said.
It appears that thus far both sides have received the other's written proposals positively, and that's what was driving President Trump's "olive branch" comments on Tuesday. He had stressed while speaking in Saudi Arabia that "this is not an offer that will last forever. The time is right now for them to choose."
President Trump followed up on Thursday by saying from Qatar, "We're in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace," according to AFP.
He said, "We're getting close to maybe doing a deal without having to do this... there (are) two steps to doing this, there is a very, very nice step and there is the violent step, but I don't want to do it the second."
Trump's comments followed an NBC News interview with Ali Shamkhani, a top political, military and nuclear adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who said Tehran is prepared to sign a nuclear deal—provided key conditions are met—in exchange for the lifting of U.S. economic sanctions.
Trump reposted the NBC article indicating Iran is ready to reach a deal (though the details of that deal suggest it would look essentially identical to the JCPOA). pic.twitter.com/LPDLzqu0nd
— Gregory Brew (@gbrew24) May 15, 2025NBC News pointed out that Shamkhani's comments "appear to be the clearest public statement yet on Iran's expectations and willingness to reach a deal from the supreme leader's inner circle."
And the fact that written proposals have already been exchanged is yet further confirmation of this positive trend towards peace. Trump has emphasized that Iran can never have a nuclear bomb, but Tehran itself has long said it's not pursuing a nuke, and that its program is only for peaceful domestic energy purposes.
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Brent crude prices fell on Thursday as geopolitical risk premiums eased following President Trump's comments during his Gulf tour, where he signaled that the U.S. is nearing a nuclear deal with Iran. Unlike earlier headlines on AI, defense, and aviation deals with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Trump's comments suggested a potential breakthrough in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.
"We're in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace," Trump told reporters in a press pool that AFP News first reported.
Speaking in Doha, Qatar, during his Middle East trip, the president said, "We're getting close to maybe doing a deal without having to do this... there (are) two steps to doing this, there is a very, very nice step and there is the violent step, but I don't want to do it the second way."
An Iranian source told Reuters that negotiations with Trump administration officials still needed to bridge some gaps before a final deal could be reached.
Trump's comments followed an NBC News interview with Ali Shamkhani, a top political, military and nuclear adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who said Tehran is prepared to sign a nuclear deal—provided key conditions are met—in exchange for the lifting of U.S. economic sanctions.
With Trump Touring Gulf, Iran Offers Huge Nuclear Concession https://t.co/NQ4259UIsE
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 14, 2025Trump confirms reports that Iran have “sort of agreed to the terms” that they cannot have nuclear capabilities!
— Clandestine (@WarClandestine) May 15, 2025
Trump confirms he is currently in “very serious negotiations with Iran, for long-term peace”!
Trump also highlights how “many people” want war with Iran, but that he… pic.twitter.com/rVSkScNRINNBC News pointed out that Shamkhani's comments "appear to be the clearest public statement yet on Iran's expectations and willingness to reach a deal from the supreme leader's inner circle."
Trump has offered "an olive branch" to Tehran after a multi-month maximum-pressure campaign, including economic sanctions and deploying long-range stealth bombers to America's "unsinkable aircraft carrier" - located in the Indian Ocean - ready to be deployed at a moment's notice.
However, last week, ahead of Trump's Gulf tour, we spotted at least one of these stealth bombers returning to the U.S. We suggested this may have been an act of goodwill ahead of talks by the U.S. or possibly just a routine flight.
On Thursday, Brent crude futures fell 3% to $60 a barrel on expectations that a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal would ease sanctions and increase crude oil on international markets.
"The overnight development of a possible nuclear deal is the sole reason for the morning's weakness. If an agreement is reached, Iran agrees to halt enriching weapon grade uranium and the deal is effectively enforced, which is hard to believe, then the Persian Gulf country's crude oil exports can rise by as much as 1 [million barrels per day]," PVM analyst Tamas Varga told CNBC in an emailed statement.
"It sounds price negative, but its impact will possibly be mitigated by OPEC+ rolling back on its plan to release barrels back to the market faster than originally planned," he added.
Goldman trader Rich Privorotsky commented on the development:
Staying with geopolitics there are some rather positive stories emanating out of Iran. "Iran is ready to sign a nuclear deal with certain conditions with President Donald Trump in exchange for lifting economic sanctions, a top adviser to Iran's supreme leader told NBC News on Wednesday." Unclear if the U.S. will agree to the terms but they seem fairly broad: "He said Iran would commit to never making nuclear weapons, getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium which can be weaponized, agree to only enrich uranium to the lower levels needed for civilian use, and allow international inspectors to supervise the process, in exchange for the immediate lifting of all economic sanctions on Iran." (NBC news) If confirmed I think oil could eventually end up heading back to the recent lows and I would continue to express any cyclical concerns in this space.
Here's the latest commentary from UBS traders:
Oil Equity Resilience Amid Oil Price Drop Oil prices are down, mainly because of a potential deal with Iran. That could mean up to 500kb/d increased supply coming to market very quickly. Oil equities, however, are already underweight for generalists and specialists have already de-grossed, following the OPEC+ surprises so far this year - hence oil equities are proving to be relatively resilient even though the oil price is down.
If Trump secures a nuclear deal with Tehran, it would cap off a week of landmark agreements with Gulf nations—collectively worth trillions—and add to an already bullish news cycle for the president. Also, this would mean continued easing of geopolitical risk premiums in the region, in other words, lower energy prices for Trump to pursue his 'America First' agenda.
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Site: Zero HedgeIs DOGE Starting To Work? 'Deep TriState' Jobless Claims Surged Last WeekTyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 09:13
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time was flat from the prior week at 229k (the same level it was at in Jan 2022)...
Source: Bloomberg
Headline continuing claims remains below the Maginot Line of 1.9 million Americans...
Source: Bloomberg
But, drilling down, the 'Deep Tristate' saw initial jobless claims spike last week...
Source: Bloomberg
...and continuing jobless claims in the 'Deep TriState' also rose as perhaps DOGE is starting to have some effects...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, the chart that sums up the entire farcical FUD-fest about the US labor market and Trump's terrible tariff trauma...
Source: Bloomberg
When will the CEOs face reality?
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Site: Zero HedgeUS Producer Prices Plunge Most Since COVID LockdownsTyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 09:00
Following the cooler than expected CPI, US Producer Prices plunged in April, down 0.5% MoM (vs +0.2% MoM exp) - the biggest drop since April 2020 (but we note that last month's 0.4% MoM decline was revised up to unchanged). The headline print was dragged down to +2.4% YoY (the lowest since Sept 2024)...
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, Prices for final demand services moved down 0.7 percent in April, the largest decline since the index began in December 2009.
Source: Bloomberg
Core Producer Prices plunged by the most on record (back to 2010)...
Source: Bloomberg
PPI Final Demand Services
Prices for final demand services moved down 0.7 percent in April, the largest decline since the index began in December 2009. Over two-thirds of the broad-based decrease can be traced to margins for final demand trade services, which dropped 1.6 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing and for final demand transportation and warehousing services fell 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.
- Product detail: Over 40 percent of the April decline in the index for final demand services is attributable to margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling, which dropped 6.1 percent. The indexes for portfolio management, food and alcohol wholesaling, system software publishing, traveler accommodation services, and airline passenger services also fell. Conversely, prices for outpatient care (partial) advanced 0.3 percent. The indexes for furniture retailing and for inpatient care also moved up. (See table 2.)
PPI Final demand goods
Prices for final demand goods were unchanged in April following a 0.9-percent decrease in March. In April, the index for final demand goods less foods and energy increased 0.4 percent. In contrast, prices for final demand foods and for final demand energy declined 1.0 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.
- Product detail: Among final demand goods in April, the index for general purpose machinery and equipment advanced 1.1 percent. Prices for residential electric power, fresh and dry vegetables, non-electronic cigarettes, and utility natural gas also moved up. Conversely, the index for chicken eggs dropped 39.4 percent. Prices for gasoline, gas fuels, diesel fuel, and primary basic organic chemicals also fell.
Margin pressure remains on American corporations...
Source: Bloomberg
It would appear that despite all the FUD, companies are soaking up any tariff price increases and NOT passing them on to customers.
Finally, energy prices are set to drag CPI and PPI even lower in the next month or so...
Source: Bloomberg
Goldman has lowered its PCE expectations:
Based on the details in the PPI and CPI reports, we estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.11% in April (vs. our expectation of 0.19% prior to today's PPI report), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.46%.
Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.10% in April, or increased 2.18% from a year earlier.
But, but, but... the PhDs said tariffs were inflationary!!
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Site: Zero HedgeWalmart Delivers Solid Earnings, Warns Of Imminent Price HikesTyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 09:00
Walmart reported better-than-expected first-quarter results for the period ending April 30 but cautioned that the trade war will raise prices on certain items as early as this month. The warning underscores that the mega retailer's low-price model is threatened amid an ongoing value war with other U.S. retailers.
The nation's largest retailer posted first-quarter results showing a 4.5% year-over-year sales increase at U.S. Walmart stores, surpassing the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of 3.85%. Adjusted earnings per share came in at 61 cents, also beating the 58-cent estimate.
1Q25 results demonstrate that Walmart's pricing power to offer low-cost products continues to increase.
Here is the highlight of the 1Q results (ended April 30):
Adjusted EPS: $0.61 vs. $0.58 estimate
Revenue: $165.61B (+2.5% y/y) vs. $166.02B estimate
U.S. Comparable Sales (ex-gas): Walmart
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Walmart stores: +4.5% vs. +3.85% estimate
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Sam's Club: +6.7% vs. +4.93% estimate
E-Commerce Growth
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Walmart U.S.: +21% vs. +13.8% estimate
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Sam's Club: +27% vs. +14.3% estimate
Operating Cash Flow: $5.4B
From the earnings deck:
Total revenues/gross profit
Operating expense/income detail
EPS/Cash flow
Additional details...
Walmart maintained its full-year guidance, which was issued in February.
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Q2 Sales Growth Forecast: +3.5% to +4.5%
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FY2026 EPS Guidance (unchanged): $2.50–$2.60 vs. $2.61 estimate
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FY2026 Net Sales Growth (unchanged): +3% to +4%
While Walmart delivered another solid quarter of sales and earnings growth, the focus has shifted to the growing negative impact of the trade war.
Goldman analysts Mark Jordan, Emily Ghosh, and others commented on Walmart's earnings:
WMT reported 1Q25 adj. EPS of $0.61, above GS/consensus (Refinitiv) of $0.58/$0.58. Walmart US SSS of +4.5% tracked better than consensus at +3.9%, driven by traffic (+1.6%) and average ticket (+2.8%). By category, grocery was up +MSD, noting increased transactions and units along with inflation of ~150 bps, due primarily to eggs. Health & wellness grew +high-teens, driven by higher script counts, mix shift toward branded from generic, and strong over-the-counter sales. General merchandise was slightly negative, reflecting growth in unit volumes, which was more than offset by MSD like-for-like deflation, while seasonal events were strong; WMT called out sales softness in electronics, home, and sporting goods, offset by strength in toys, automotive, and kids' apparel. Global/Walmart U.S. e-commerce net sales grew +22%/+21% (vs. +16%/+20% in 4Q), while global/Walmart U.S. advertising grew +50% including VIZIO/+31% ex VIZIO (vs. +29%/+24% in 4Q), respectively.
They offered their take on guidance:
WMT reiterated 2025 guidance to net sales growth of +3.0-4.0% (vs. GS/consensus of +4.0%/+3.6%), adj. operating income growth of +3.5-5.5%, and adj. EPS of $2.50-2.60 (vs. GS/consensus at $2.60/$2.61). For 2Q, WMT is guiding to net sales growth of +3.5-4.5% (vs. GS/consensus of +4.0%/+3.5%), while the company is not guiding to operating income growth or EPS given the dynamic macro backdrop.
And maintained their "Buy" rated 12-month price target of $99.
In a post-earnings interview, CFO John David Rainey warned that price hikes at Walmart stores will begin this month: "If you've not already seen it, it will happen in May and then it will become more pronounced."
The retailer warned about trade war uncertainty and how the situation "changes by the week," adding, "The lack of clarity that exists in today's dynamic operating environment makes the very near-term exceedingly difficult to forecast."
Walmart's supply chain offers some insulation from the trade war. About 66% of its merchandise—primarily groceries—is sourced domestically, accounting for roughly two-thirds of its U.S. business. However, CFO John David Rainey noted that imported categories such as electronics, apparel, and toys could face additional price hikes in the coming months.
"We will do our best to keep our prices as low as possible but given the magnitude of the tariffs, even at the reduced levels announced this week, we aren't able to absorb all the pressure given the reality of narrow retail margins," said CEO Doug McMillon in a statement.
Takeaway: Walmart is not entirely immune to tariffs. Despite the 90-day cooling period between the U.S. and China and a substantial tariff rate reduction on both sides of the Pacific, price hikes are still coming. As cost pressures mount, the retailer's ability to fully absorb them is becoming increasingly difficult, potentially jeopardizing its low-price value model amid an ongoing, multi-year value war with other U.S. retailers.
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See: Walmart's full earnings presentation...
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Site: Zero HedgeUS Retail Sales Surprises To The Upside, But...Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 08:41
If BofA's omniscient analysts are right (and they have been serially on the correct side of this data series relative to consensus for months), then traders should brace for disappointment this morning for the retail sales data.
But...
For once, the BofA analysts were incorrect as headline retail sales rose 0.1% MoM (better than the 0.0% MoM exp, but this follows a sizable upward revision in March to +1.7% MoM (from +1.4%). With the revision that left retail sales up 5.2% YoY - near its highest since Dec 2023
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, Sporting Goods sales declined the most while Building Materials rose the most...
The (tariff front running) surge in Motor Vehicle Sales last month has gone...
Source: Bloomberg
As a reminder, this data is nominal, so adjusting ()very roughly) for inflation, retail sales rose 2.8% YoY, equalling its highest since Feb 2022...
Source: Bloomberg
More problematically, the Control Group - which feeds directly into GDP - was a big miss, dropping 0.2% MoM (vs expectations of a 0.3% MoM rise)...
Source: Bloomberg
So, the good news is bottom-up Americans are spending... but top-down GDP may be negatively affected.
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Site: Zero HedgeZelensky In Istanbul Responds To 'Insult' Of Putin Sending Junior Officials To Talks: "I Am Here"Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 08:30
A team of Russian negotiators are in Istanbul on Thursday for the first direct peace talks with Ukraine in more than three years, with Russia's Foreign Ministry officials saying that the delegation is "ready for serious work".
President Putin, who as expected is not there in person, tapped his aide and former culture minister Vladimir Medinsky to lead the talks, which many Western analysts have claimed is an 'insult' given it's not someone more senior. Medinsky, it should be remembered, oversaw the failed 2022 peace talks with Kiev in the weeks after the February invasion.
Alongside Medinsky are Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin and Igor Kostyukov, the head of Russia’s military intelligence agency (GRU).
Supporting these main negotiators are group of advisers, including senior officials from the Foreign and Defense Ministries, along with Putin aides. The Kremlin confirmed the identities of its negotiating team by releasing footage of Putin meeting with the negotiation group late Wednesday.
On Wednesday evening, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting to discuss arrangements for talks with Ukraine, due to take place today in Istanbul, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters:https://t.co/hRmXK7daoA
— TASS (@tassagency_en) May 15, 2025
Video: Kremlin. ru pic.twitter.com/1e7DHMlFgvOther top officials were seen present in the send-off meeting in Russia, among them Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, Russia’s chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu and Federal Security Service (FSB) Director Alexander Bortnikov - which perhaps underscores that Moscow is indeed taking the Istanbul talks very seriously.
But many are calling this a 'slap in the face' and insult to Trump who has strongly backed direct talks, and who even urged Putin to be there in person.
Trump has warned that he is "always considering" additional sanctions against Russia if he believes Moscow is blocking or snubbing the peace process.
Putin sending the same people to Istanbul who, back in 2022, demanded Ukraine's surrender on his behalf is a slap in the face to the Trump administration’s efforts to end this war. The message is clear: fuck off — I have my own objectives, and they haven’t changed since 2022,… https://t.co/8Sj3mprJXe
— Sławomir Dębski (@SlawomirDebski) May 14, 2025As for Ukraine's President Zelensky, he's has for the past week been making a big show of how he's willing to be in Istanbul, and Putin is not. He's been repeatedly goading Putin to be there, saying that if he's not - it proves Moscow is not interested in the peace process.
However, this has clearly been a performative effort more geared to show President Trump that Kiev is 'willing' - likely in hopes that Washington gives Zelensky stronger backing, and of course a steady supply of weapons and intelligence. To some degree, Zelensky's bellicose rhetoric may itself have sabotaged talks before they had even begun.
But Zelensky has shown up in Turkey, somewhat surprisingly. "I am here" - he has emphasized (in once again a bit of messaging primarily aimed at the White House). He's meeting with Erdogan, but apparently this is separate, and happening in Ankara.
Zelensky to Putin from Ankara:
— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 15, 2025
"I am here." pic.twitter.com/67RjF4QFqbThe Wall Street Journal's take is as follows:
"Ignoring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s call to meet for direct high-level talks in Turkey, Russian leader Vladimir Putin dispatched to Istanbul a team of junior officials, making it uncertain that negotiations between the warring nations would occur at all."
But Russia analyst and author of Forged In War: A Military History of Russia From its Beginnings To Today, Mark Geleotti, has a very different take, featured below [emphasis ZH]:
It’s easy (and not wholly untrue) to slam Vladimir Medinsky, leading the Russian delegation to Istanbul as a nobody, but perversely, although I think it monstrously unlikely anything meaningful will come from the talks, the composition of the delegation is encouraging.
Putin was never likely to attend, not least as he wasn’t going to allow it to look as if he had been manipulated and dared by Zelensky. Besides, sometimes it can help break a logjam (think Reagan/Gorbachev), but leaders usually turn up to seal the deal at the end of the process, after experts have done all the hard preparatory work away from the cameras.
Do we honestly think two men who so plainly loathe each other and who have been shamelessly posturing for Trump's benefit were going to reach some kind of meeting of minds? Possible, but unlikely.
Medinsky led the talks in 2022 that failed to reach a usable deal (we can discount the myth that Zelensky was about to agree to Russia's demands until Boris Johnson nixed it) so this is meant to signal continuity in process and demands.
Medinsky's very lack of personal authority isn’t a snub, so much as a sign that Putin wants to manage any process by remote control. He's a human drone, which at least means any positions he advances/agrees already have VVP's ok
The rest of the delegation likewise isn't showy (though the presence of military intel chief Kostyukov is interesting as they were key in POW swaps) but likewise meant to signal a willingness to do serious work. (Although this doesn’t necessarily mean make necessary compromises).
Of course, with no hint that Russia is about to relax its implausible and unfair demands, this may all be for show. It probably is, alas. But talking is always good as there is a *chance*, however minuscule, that talks can lead somewhere.
So although Medinsky is a shallow ideologist, and sending him is in a way a snub, a means for Putin to try and reject Zelensky's challenge while not looking wholly uncooperative in Trump's eyes.
…whereas before I was 99% pessimistic about the talks, now I’m only 98% so. That is as much room for optimism as there is, these days.
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Site: Zero HedgeFutures Drop Ahead Of Data Deluge, Powell SpeechTyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 08:15
US equity futures are lower as investors take profits on Thursday and tech stocks fell as investors worried about an economic slowdown after Steve Cohen warned the chance of a recession is 45% and today’s retail sales numbers are expected to be a miss. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.4%, rebounding from session lows after Walmart reported solid earnings; Nasdaq futures dropped 0.5% with Nvidia, Palantir and Tesla falling about 2% in early trading. On Wednesday, the S&P failed at 5,900 for the second consecutive day. The silver lining according to JPM is that yesterday, NVDA turned positive on the year, joining META and MSFT; if the remaining members follow suit, there is another ~10% upside to the index assuming positive members are flat. YTD, AMZN is -4.2%, GOOG -12.6%, TSLA -13.9%, and AAPL -15.2%. In trade news, China removed curbs on rare earth exports to the US. Trump says India is willing to drop is tariffs on US goods. Brent sank below $64, down more than 3% after President Donald Trump said the US is getting closer to a deal on Iran’s nuclear program, fueling concern that additional oil supply may pressure the market. Bond yields and the USD are lower. Today’s macro data focus is on Retail Sales which are expected to remain unchanged in April (versus 1.5% prior); PPI, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed and Empire Manufacturing numbers are due at 8:30 am in New York, while Industrial Production prints at 9:15am. Also, traders are looking ahead to a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
In premarket trading, UnitedHealth shares sank after the WSJ reported it’s under criminal investigation for possible Medicare fraud. Walmart delivered another quarter of solid sales and earnings growth, and cautioned that tariffs and increasing economic turbulence means even the world’s largest retailer can’t hold off on price increases forever. Shares gained 2.4% premarket. Magnificent Seven stocks are lower as risk appetite falters (Tesla -1.8%, Apple -1%, Meta Platforms -1%, Amazon -0.8%, Alphabet -0.7%, Nvidia -0.6%, Microsoft -0.5%). Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Alibaba ADRs (BABA) decline 5.6% after reporting revenue that missed estimates, dragged by a slowing international e-commerce arm and its Cainiao logistics business that’s under restructuring.
- Boot Barn (BOOT) rises 13% after the retailer of western wear gave a forecast for 1Q same-store sales growth that surpassed Wall Street estimates, despite an expected hit from tariffs.
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) rises 3.3% after the company gave a solid forecast for revenue in the current quarter, a sign the largest seller of networking gear is benefiting from demand for systems using AI technology.
- CoreWeave (CRWV) shares fall 6.6% after the cloud-computing provider’s quarterly profit forecast missed estimates due to some spending being brought forward.
- Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD) shares are down 2.4% in premarket trading, after Mizuho Securities downgraded the software company to neutral from outperform.
- DXC Technology (DXC) shares are down 14% after the company reported forecast adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter and 2026 full-year guidance that missed the average analyst estimate.
- Dlocal (DLO) shares gain 21% after the financial technology company beat earnings expectations and unveiled plans for a special dividend.
- Foot Locker (FL) is up 84% with Dick’s Sporting Goods to buy it in a cash or stock deal implying an equity value of about $2.4 billion and an enterprise value of about $2.5 billion.
- JetBlue (JBLU) falls 1.6% after Raymond James downgraded the airline company to market perform from outperform, citing a more balanced risk-reward amid an improvement in sentiment.
- Luminar (LAZR) drops 13% after the automotive technology company’s CEO Austin Russell resigned as CEO, overshadowing better-than-expected first-quarter sales.
- NetEase ADRs (NTES) are up 6.7% after the China-based video-game company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations.
- New Fortress Energy (NFE) shares slump 38% after the energy infrastructure firm saw adj. Ebitda plunge in the first quarter, with analysts flagging that the sale of its Jamaican assets will dent cash flow.
There’s also some big company news to digest. Trump wants Apple to stop moving iPhone production to India, while Starbucks is said to be considering options to revamp its China business, including a possible stake sale.
Economic forecasters this week have said that while the Trump administration’s temporary trade deal with China has reduced the risk of a recession, the overall economy is likely to slow. “There’s definitely more clarity than a few weeks ago,” Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, chief of global markets strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Some of the uncertainty around trade, tariffs, policy started to get reined in.”
“The market is globally priced for perfection,” said Michael Nizard, head of multi-asset at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management. “The retail sales figures should reveal that consumer is already depressed in terms of business confidence.”
Meanwhile, billionaire Steve Cohen, speaking at the Sohn Investment Conference on Wednesday, put the chances of a US recession at about 45%. Cohen, the founder of hedge fund Point72 Asset Management, said he doesn’t expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates right away, because “they are going to be worried about inflation from tariffs.” He said he expects US economic growth next year to slow to 1.5% or less, “which is OK but not phenomenal.”
Looking at today's macro data, Retail sales are expected to rise by a tepid 0.1% in April (versus 1.5% prior) according to Bloomberg economists, while a survey of economists is pointing to flat month-on-month sales. PPI and Empire Manufacturing numbers are due at 8:30 am in New York. Traders were looking ahead to a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, as well as data on manufacturing and retail sales, for the next readout on US growth and inflation. Economists are expecting no growth in retail sales in April as consumers cut back on some purchases.
European stocks retreat for a second day. Energy stocks lead declines, driven by a fall in oil prices following a report that Iran is willing to forgo nuclear weapons in a deal with the US, while utilities and food and beverage stocks outperform. Among individual stocks, insurance firm Allianz drops after disappointing results. Stoxx 600 falls 0.2% to 542.88 with 327 members down, 263 up, and 10 little changed. Here are the biggest European movers:
- KBC shares rise as much as 2.6% after the Belgian lender reported earnings that analysts said were roughly in line with expectations, and saw a boost from increased insurance revenues.
- Engie shares gain as much as 2.2% after the utility produced what analysts said were strong results that should provide further comfort around full-year guidance and the dividend.
- Serco shares rise as much as 6.9% after the outsourcing-services company announced the award of three contracts with a combined value of more than £1b to provide maritime services for the Royal Navy.
- Watches of Switzerland shares rise as much as 6.7% after the watch seller’s update showed no deterioration in trends in either the UK or US, providing some relief to investors.
- Energy stocks are the worst-performing sector as oil falls following a report that Iran is willing to forgo nuclear weapons in a deal with the US in exchange for sanctions relief.
- Allianz shares fall as much as 3.9% after the German insurer reported earnings that analysts called disappointing.
- 3i shares drop as much as 8.1% following the private equity firm’s full-year results, with net asset value per share coming in marginally below analyst expectations.
- Deutsche Telekom shares decline as much as 1.2% after the telecom operator reported mixed trends in its home market Germany.
- Thyssenkrupp shares fall as much as 14% after the German firm reported what Morgan Stanley called a substantial miss. Analysts see challenges reaching full-year guidance.
- Orsted shares drop as much as 4.7%, to the lowest since December 2016, after Berenberg analysts cut their rating on the stock to hold from buy.
- Siemens shares fall as much as 4.4% after the German industrial group reported a solid set of second-quarter earnings, with analysts noting continued improvement for the key Digital Industries division.
- CVC Capital shares fall as much as 3.2%, with analyst saying that the buyout firm’s fee paying AUM for the first quarter disappointed as some funds reached the end of their fee-paying periods.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks slipped, poised to snap a four-day win streak, as the rally fueled in part by reduced fear over US tariffs fizzled. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.5%, with Toyota, and Sony among the biggest drags, as a stronger yen weighed on Japanese equities. Key gauges fell more than 1% each in Thailand and the Philippines. Tencent dipped despite upbeat earnings, weighing on key Hong Kong gauges, as investors await Alibaba’s results later Thursday. The market had been looking for major Chinese tech reports to provide the next catalyst. Despite the muted response to the US-China trade truce, some market watchers are turning more positive on Chinese stocks. Strategists at Goldman Sachs have raised their Chinese stocks index targets. Morgan Stanley said MSCI China’s onshore stocks saw “meaningful improvement” in the first quarter results over the previous three months, marking the first in-line outcome after 14 quarters of misses.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declines 0.3%. The pound adds 0.2% with little reaction seen after UK GDP in the first quarter topped estimates as the period precedes a sharp rise in US tariffs.
In rates, treasuries are slightly richer across the curve with gains led by front end and belly, unwinding a portion of Wednesday’s selloff when Fed-policy pricing saw a hawkish shift. US yields are 2bp-3bp lower across maturities led by 5-year sector with 10-year near 4.51%. European government bonds also gain: bunds and gilts outperform, supporting Treasuries, following wave of European data including UK GDP and industrial production and French CPI. Slide in oil futures also supports Treasuries. US session includes April retail sales data and remarks by Fed Chair Powell on the central bank’s monetary policy framework review (text release expected at 8:40am New York time).
In commodities, WTI crude oil futures have pared a 4.2% drop to about 3.7%, extending losses for a second day after US President Trump said an agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear program is closer. Spot gold falls $11 to around $3,167/oz having pared an earlier fall.
US economic data calendar includes May Empire manufacturing, April retail sales, PPI, weekly jobless claims, May Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), April industrial production (9:15am), March business inventories, May NAHB housing market index (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Powell (8:40am) and Barr (2:05pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -0.4%
- Nasdaq 100 mini -0.6%
- Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
- Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%
- DAX -0.3%
- CAC 40 -0.2%
- 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.5%
- VIX +0.6 points at 19.2
- Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.3% at 1229.3
- euro +0.3% at $1.1208
- WTI crude -4.1% at $60.55/barrel
Top Overnight News
- U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States was getting very close to securing a nuclear deal with Iran, and Tehran had "sort of" agreed to the terms. The agreement would see the country foreswear highly enriched uranium in exchange for an easing of economic sanctions. RTRS
- U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that India had offered a trade deal that proposed "no tariffs" for American goods, while expressing his dissatisfaction with Apple's plans to invest in India. New Delhi is seeking to clinch a trade deal with the U.S. within the 90-day pause announced by Trump on April 9 on tariff hikes for major trading partners. RTRS
- US officials seeking to negotiate trade deals around the world are not working to include currency policy pledges in the agreements, according to a person familiar with the matter. Foreign-exchange markets are on edge over concerns President Donald Trump’s administration is seeking a weaker greenback and might use trade bargaining to achieve that goal. BBG
- Trump asked Apple’s Tim Cook to stop plans to move iPhone output to India. The president said Apple will increase production in the US as a result of their discussion. BBG
- US authorities are preparing to announce one of the biggest cuts in banks’ capital requirements for more than a decade, marking the latest sign of deregulation agenda for the Trump administration. FT
- Trump says the US will upgrade the F-35 to an F-55; will do an F-22 super, an upgrade on the F-22.
- UnitedHealth shares dropped premarket after the WSJ reported it’s under criminal investigation for possible Medicare fraud. The company said it hasn’t been notified by the DOJ. BBG
- Japan's top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, could travel to Washington as soon as next week for a third round of trade talks with the U.S., two sources with knowledge of the plans told Reuters on Thursday. RTRS
- Ignoring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s call to meet for direct high-level talks in Turkey, Russian leader Vladimir Putin dispatched to Istanbul a team of junior officials, making it uncertain that negotiations between the warring nations would occur at all. WSJ
- Oil demand growth to slow according to the latest IEA report – “Global oil demand growth is projected to slow from 990 kb/d in 1Q25 to 650 kb/d for the remainder of the year as economic headwinds and record EV sales curb use.” IEA
Tariffs/Trade
- EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic says the US and EU have agreed to intensify trade talk contacts.
- WTO chief warned that US bilateral tariff deals could put trade principles at risk and said global trade was in a crisis despite the recent de-escalation of the US-China tariff war, according to FT.
- US Treasury secretary Bessent says they can accomplish "a lot" over the next 90 days; will have a series of negotiations to prevent escalation with China again.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were predominantly lower following the mixed handover from Wall St, where the major indices were somewhat choppy and small caps underperformed as yields edged higher. ASX 200 traded indecisively but eventually eked mild gains in the aftermath of the stronger-than-expected jobs data from Australia. Nikkei 225 underperformed following recent currency strength and as earnings results remained in the spotlight in Japan. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lacklustre amid little in the way of fresh catalysts to spur momentum, while Tencent shares traded indecisively post-earnings and Alibaba results are scheduled for release today.
Top Asian News
- Chinese President Xi hopes the Danish Chamber of Commerce in China and member companies will continue to role as a bridge between China and Denmark and between China and Europe, according to Xinhua.
- PBoC Governor Pan said China welcomes more outstanding Latin American market players to issue Panda bonds in China and share market development opportunities, while he added that China and Latin America should promote financial cooperation in a wider range of fields and a deeper level.
Subdued sentiment across Europe after the predominantly lower APAC handover, and following the mixed handover from Wall St, where the major indices were somewhat choppy and small caps underperformed as yields edged higher. Newsflow this morning has been light but earnings picked up, whilst current focus remains on geopolitical ongoings with US President Trump in the Middle East, consolatory language from Iran, and a likely no-show from Russia President Putin in Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Turkey. Sectors are mostly a defensive bias and in line with the cautious mood across the markets.
Top European News
- Plans for a reset of UK-EU relations hit trouble due to fishing rights and youth mobility as EU member states demanded further concessions from the UK, according to the FT.
FX
- DXY subdued and contained within Wednesday's confines amid a lack of fresh catalysts overnight, n a 100.58-101.05 range at the time of writing, within yesterday's 100.27-101.14 parameter.
- EUR ekes mild gains and trades on either side of the 1.1200 level after recent fluctuations, and with ECB speakers scheduled later, although data and speakers today are not likely to shift the dial much.
- GBP is slightly firmer following better-than-expected UK GDP data; GBP/USD resides within yesterday's 1.3250-1.3360 range.
- USD/JPY retreated overnight as the underperformance in Japanese stocks spurred some haven flows into the yen.
- Antipodeans are subdued in-fitting with the broader risk tone; mild support was seen in AUD/USD following the stronger-than-expected employment data from Australia.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1963 vs exp. 7.2217 (Prev. 7.1956).
Fixed Income
- Another contained start for fixed income with USTs marginally in the green while peers across the pond resided slightly in the red in the early morning.
- USTs at a 109-26 peak with gains of a handful of ticks. While firmer, the benchmark remains markedly shy of peaks from the last three sessions at 110-09+, 110-15 and 110-19+ respectively.
- Bunds find themselves attempting to make a footing above the break-even mark at the top-end of a 129.13 to 129.47 band.
- Gilts gapped higher by 17 ticks, before then slipping to a shortlived 91.02 low given the readacross from EGBs at the time. Currently, at the mid-point of a 91.02-22 band.
- UK sells (via tender) GBP 2.0bln 0.125% 2028 Gilt: b/c 3.52x, average yield 3.768% & tail 0.7bps
Commodities
- WTI and Brent are suffering losses of USD 2/bbl, with commentary surrounding Iran applying steady pressure overnight and through the morning so far. US President Trump said the US is getting close to a deal with Iran, and they are in serious peace negotiations, adding that Iran has "sort of" agreed to the terms of a deal. This constructive commentary surrounding the nation pushed benchmarks to fresh session lows, adding to overnight losses. Losses overnight also stemmed from geopolitics, following a report that Iran is ready to sign an agreement with certain conditions in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and would commit to never making nuclear weapons and getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. The aforementioned lows for WTI and Brent are currently USD 60.65 and 63.63/bbl.
- Spot Gold is extending on recent losses with demand subdued as it sits below the USD 3,200/oz mark. The trend seen for most of this week remains intact, with the metal continuing to be hit by higher yields, particularly on the short end.
- Copper Futures are lower by a percent, mostly owing to a downbeat risk sentiment in APAC hours. It currently trades towards session lows of USD 9,467/t, after being modestly pressured around the time of Trump commentary.
- IEA lifts 2025 average oil demand growth forecast by 20k BPD to 740k BPD on upward revision to GDP growth forecast and lower oil prices; sees global oil demand growth dropping to 650k BPD for remainder of 2025, from 990k BPD in Q1. “Increased trade uncertainty is expected to weigh on the world economy and by extension oil demand,”. IEA sees oil inventories rising by around 720k BPD in 2025 as global supply rises expected to considerably outpace demand growth. IEA hikes 2025 global supply growth forecast to 1.6mln BPD, up by 380k BPD from previous month's report on higher Saudi production outlook. IEA raises 2026 average oil demand growth forecast to 760k BPD (prev forecast 690k BPD).
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Russian President Putin was not on a list of negotiators the Kremlin published for talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on Thursday
- Russian Kremlin spokesperson Peskov says no chance Russian President Putin will take part in Turkey talks, according to Ria.
- US President Trump says he will go to the Russia-Ukraine talks if appropriate.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Qatar's PM said Israeli attacks in Gaza this week send a signal that they are not interested in negotiating a ceasefire, while he added that a US humanitarian plan for Gaza is not necessary and the UN should be allowed to deliver aid, according to CNN.
- Gaza Humanitarian Foundation announced it will launch operations in the Gaza Strip before the end of the month and stated that Israel has agreed to expand the number of distribution sites to serve the entire population of Gaza.
- US President Trump said Qatar is working with the US on negotiating an Iran deal and he wants to see Iran thrive.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran will not bow to any bullying from US President Trump who he suggested thinks that he can come to the region, chant slogans, and scare them.
- Iran is ready to sign an agreement with certain conditions in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and would commit to never making nuclear weapons, as well as getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, according to a top advisor to the Supreme Leader cited by NBC News.- US President Trump says the US getting close to doing a deal with Iran; in serious negotiations to achieve peace; don't want to take a second step and threaten Iran. Want to end Iran in an intelligent way, not destructive
Geopolitics: Other
- China's Hainan Maritime Safety Administration warned of military training taking place in an area of the South China Sea from May 15th to 16th and prohibited entry, while it noted there were some drills near Vietnam and China's Hainan.
- Russia sent a fighter jet to "check the situation" as Estonia was attempting to detain a Russian shadow fleet tanker, according to the Estonian Foreign Minister; jet violated NATO territory for "around a minute".
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: May Empire Manufacturing, est. -8, prior -8.1
- 8:30 am: Apr Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0%, prior 1.4%, revised 1.45%
- 8:30 am: Apr Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.3%, prior 0.8%, revised 0.86%
- 8:30 am: Apr Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%, revised 0.56%
- 8:30 am: Apr PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.4%
- 8:30 am: Apr PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.1%
- 8:30 am: Apr PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.7%
- 8:30 am: Apr PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3.1%, prior 3.3%
- 8:30 am: May 10 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 227.5k, prior 228k
- 8:30 am: May 3 Continuing Claims, est. 1890k, prior 1879k
- 8:30 am: May Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. -11, prior -26.4
- 9:15 am: Apr Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.3%
- 9:15 am: Apr Capacity Utilization, est. 77.8%, prior 77.8%
- 10:00 am: Mar Business Inventories, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
- 10:00 am: May NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 40, prior 40
Central bank speakers
- 5:00 am: 2nd Thomas Laubach Research Conference
- 8:40 am: Fed’s Powell Speaks on Framework Review
- 2:05 pm: Fed’s Barr Gives Opening Remarks
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The strong recent equity rally showed some signs of exhaustion over the past 24 hours, even though gains for the tech mega caps helped the S&P 500 (+0.10%) extend its gains since the closing low on April 7 to +18.26%. On the other hand, Treasuries came under renewed pressure with the 10yr yield (+7.1bps) closing above 4.5% for the first time since February as investors continued to price out Fed rate cuts and increased their focus on the US fiscal outlook. The moves added to the mixed performance across US asset classes since early April, with the S&P 500 now +3.91% above the pre-Liberation Day levels but 10yr Treasuries (+40bps) and the dollar index (-2.67%) having lost considerable ground.
Trump’s Middle East tour continued to generate headlines yesterday, but their market impact was narrower in comparison to Tuesday’s rally. One notable beneficiary was Nvidia (+4.16%), which moved back into the green YTD after the oil giant Saudi Aramco signed agreements of as much as $90bn with a slew of US companies, including with Nvidia on AI infrastructure. That helped the Magnificent 7 rise +1.75% on the day, while the NASDAQ was +0.72% higher. Elsewhere, more than $243bn of deals were announced during Trump’s visit to Qatar, with the White House saying this would lay the groundwork for a bigger $1.2trn economic pledge. This included a $96bn deal to buy up to 210 Boeing aircraft. Boeing’s shares closed +0.64% on the day, having been +3% intra-day after Trump announced the deal. The president is in the UAE today, so expect more announcements.
Outside of tech the equity mood was actually pretty weak, as the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 (-0.62%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (-0.88%) posted visible declines. This weaker performance was also visible in Europe as the STOXX 600 (-0.24%) ended its four-day winning streak, with the DAX (-0.47%) and CAC (-0.47%) leading the decline. Among the reasons for a stalling of the equity rally was a relative absence of trade headlines, although Bloomberg reported that India’s trade minister is set to visit the US this week to discuss tariffs.
With the recent surge driven by US-China trade discussions waning, Asian equity markets are also losing momentum this morning. Across the region, the Nikkei (-0.98%) is the biggest laggard, with the KOSPI (-0.43%) also in the red. In China, the CSI (-0.58%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.42%) and Hang Seng (-0.25%) are moderately lower. The S&P/ASX 200 (+0.27%) is an exception in the region, trading higher. In the US, S&P 500 futures are -0.18% lower while those on the NASDAQ are near flat.
Yesterday’s more notable market milestones came for Treasuries, with 2yr (+5.1bps to 4.05%) and 10yr (+7.1bps to 4.54%) yields both closing at their highest levels since February. And the 30yr yield rose +6.7bps to 4.97%, its highest close since January and within touching distance of the 5% level it briefly breached on the evening of April 8, the night before Trump announced a 90 day delay to the reciprocal tariffs. So we are now reaching yield levels that previously seemed to trigger sensitivity from the US administration, though the recent moves are much more orderly than they were in early April.
The bond sell-off came amid an ongoing reversal in Fed rate cut expectations, with fed funds futures moving to price less than two cuts by year-end for the first time since February (-3.9bps to 49bps). That came as Fed speakers struck a measured tone, with San Francisco Fed President Daly saying that “the word of the day is patience” while Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that a “solid hard data economy is still there” beneath the recent noise.
Meanwhile on the US fiscal side, the Republicans’ planned economic package continued to take shape, with the House Ways and Means Committee advancing the proposed tax portion that included an extension of 2017 tax cuts, eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay and creating some new tax deductions, although some key issues such as the state and local tax deduction remain unresolved. The total of those planned tax cuts are well above the spending cuts that have been approved by other House Committees, so as things stands it looks improbable that the eventual package will deliver any meaningful reduction of the elevated US fiscal deficit.
The above rates moves come ahead of a slew of US data today, including the April PPI, where after Tuesday’s April CPI miss, we’ll be monitoring the categories that feed through into core PCE, while also watching for any evidence of tariff pass through into producer prices. Meanwhile, the April retail sales print will be watched for possible signs of pull-forward demand in response to tariffs, with April industrial production also due. Recall that while US sentiment surveys have seen a sharp weakening over the past few months, hard data have so far held up quite well.
The other notable market story yesterday were moves in the US dollar. The dollar index fell by as much as -0.72% intra-day following reporting that US and South Korea officials had discussed exchange rate policies at a meeting in early May. However, it recovered back to little changed (+0.04%) by the close following a Bloomberg report that US officials were not seeking currency pledges as part of ongoing trade negotiations. Still, there were notable gains against the dollar for the East Asian currencies, including the South Korean won (+0.88%) and Japanese yen (+0.50%). The won and yen are another +0.60% and +0.47% higher this morning. At a minimum, there is a sense that these countries may become more reticent to push back against their currencies appreciating than they have been in the past.
Turning back to Trump’s visit in the Middle East, yesterday the president said that Iran must “permanently and verifiably cease” its pursuit of nuclear weapons if it wanted to strike a deal with the US, while NBC reported that Iran is ready to sign an agreement with certain conditions. Brent crude was down -0.81% to $66.09/bbl on the back of ameliorating tensions, while gold fell -2.25% to $3,177/oz, leaving the precious metal on course for its biggest weekly decline since November.
Geopolitics will stay in focus today with Russia-Ukraine talks expected in Istanbul. The nature of any talks remains uncertain, with Ukraine’s President Zelensky calling for an in-person meeting with Russia’s Putin, but Moscow last night announcing a delegation headed by Vladimir Medinsky, a former Minister of Culture who led Russia’s talks with Ukraine back in 2022. Should the talks deliver little, a key question will be whether the US might join in announcing new sanctions against Russia which have been advocated by European leaders.
In terms of the day ahead, in the US we have the April PPI report, retail sales, industrial production, May Philadelphia Fed business outlook, Empire manufacturing index, initial jobless claims and more. We’ll also see the UK release its Q1 GDP numbers, with our UK economist expecting growth to have jumped in Q1 before reversing in Q2 (see preview here). Other data releases include March trade balances in Italy and the Eurozone. Central bank speakers include Fed’s Barkin, ECB’s Lane and BoE’s Lombardelli. The European Commission is also set to release their Spring Economic Forecasts.
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Site: Zero HedgeFoot Locker Shares Erupt On Possible $2.4 Billion Dick's Sporting DealTyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 08:05
Foot Locker shares erupted in premarket trading Thursday after The Wall Street Journal reported that Dick's Sporting Goods has agreed to acquire the struggling sneaker retailer for $2.4 billion, offering $24 per share in cash or stock—a nearly 90% premium to Foot Locker's pre-announcement price. Shareholders will have the option to receive either cash or 0.1168 shares of Dick's common stock for each Foot Locker share they own.
Dick's is the nation's largest sports retailing chain and operates Golf Galaxy stores across the US. The acquisition of the sneaker chain would allow Dick's to expand globally in 26 countries.
Number of Foot Locker stores worldwide as of financial year 2023, by store type (via Statista)
WSJ noted, "Dick's said it expects to operate Foot Locker as a stand-alone business unit within its portfolio and maintain the Foot Locker brands."
The move also parallels broader retail consolidation, following Skechers' recent $9.4 billion sale to 3G Capital, a private equity firm with a history in the consumer-goods sector, earlier this month.
News of the acquisition comes as both Dick's and Foot Locker have been pressured by tariff-related retail headwinds, particularly in the sneaker space.
Foot Locker shares plunged 41% this year due to weak sales forecasts and pressure from Nike's pricing changes but surged 84% in premarket trading in New York to around $23.70.
Foot Locker's float is 14.6% short - or about 13.6 million shares. Rough day ahead of the bears.
Shares of Dick's in premarket is down 9%. On the year, shares are down 8.4% (as of Wednesday's close). The deal is the largest ever for the sporting goods retailer and aligns with Lauren Hobart's strategy to grow consumer engagement.
Here's the first take from Wall Street analysts (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Lindsay Dutch
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Foot Locker is in the midst of a challenging turnaround, and may need a buyout from Dick's Sporting Goods
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"For Dick's, the potential $2 billion deal might strengthen its leading position in the $140 billion market at a discounted multiple of 0.3x price to sales, yet also increases reliance on Nike's assortment"
Morgan Stanley analyst Simeon Gutman
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"Greater scale and EPS accretion are potential positives, offset by a premium for a struggling chain"
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The initial reaction to the stocks may be tentative as sources of value creation not as obvious
Truist Securities analyst Joseph Civello
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A potential deal can create value for Dick's over the long term
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"FL's business has been under meaningful pressure over the past few years and we think a potential turnaround would likely be a long/ bumpy process"
Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe
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A deal makes sense given Dick's and Foot Locker's category overlap and Foot Locker's "recent diversification efforts"
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At $24/share it's a potentially positive offer for the Foot Locker stock
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Site: southern orders
Earthly signs of the Kingdom of Heaven after the passion, death and resurrection of Christ the King:
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Site: southern orders
My interpretation of Pope Leo’s liturgical remarks to the Eastern Churches is that in no way should Latin Rite bishops try to persuade Eastern Rite Catholics to embrace the Latin Rite liturgies.Implied in this, is that the integrity of the ancient liturgical traditions of the east be maintained and not corrupted by Latin Rite ideologies concerning the liturgies of the Church in the wake of Vatican II. Post Vatican II Latin Rite corruptions should not be foisted on the Eastern Rites of the Church!
But let’s look at what has happened to the pristine heritage of the Latin Rite Liturgies of the Church in the wake of Vatican II led by liturgists who wanted to dismantle our heritage altogether.
We have dragged into it not only Eastern Rite/Orthodox traditions, but also Protestant traditions inimical to our own rite!
Let’s talk about Chant!
The Latin Rite’s chant treasury is Gregorian Chant, plain and complex, as well as, Polyphony. Vatican II asked that it be maintained.
About 98% of Catholics in the post-Vatican II era have no clue as to our patrimony of Gregorian Chant or Polyphony. Why?
Because we have dragged into the Latin Rite, Protestant music and their chants like Anglican and Lutheran, if chants are used. Sometimes even the manner of eastern chants. We no longer mandate that in the Sung Mass, the Propers be chanted in Gregorian Chant, plain or complex. In fact the Propers are no longer required and thus Protestant hymns with their saccharine Protestant sounds are used, like “How Great Thou Art”, Amazing Grace, and Just a Closer Walk with Thee.” Often the theology of these songs are Protestant too. But other hymns, even devotional Catholic hymns, substitute the Propers which should be sung in Gregorian Chant!
Or, we use Kitschy new songs created by modern liturgical musicians who make mega bucks over constantly trying to keep Catholic parishes up to date with current trends. Their hymns sound like Broadway ditties!
We also rely upon non-denominational worship and praise music, thus forming young Catholic to leave our tradition for the fleetingly trendy, superficial and energetic non-denominational worship.
We have dragged icons from the East into our churches.
We have dragged Protestant fellowship into the Mass, with chatty celebrants, friendly, welcoming and smiling and their facing the congregation to emphasize them, not God. And congregations are encouraged to be chatty in the church before and after Mass and exude fellowship, hospitality and charm during Mass especially at the Kiss of Peace.
Pope Leo, please help us to purify our Latin Rite Mass of all these corrupting influences in our rite and get back to our heritage by getting rid of Eastern Rite, Protestant and Non-denominational corruptions!
Photos: 
Photos: 
Photos: 
Via Anadolu Agency
Source: Anadolu Agency 
The U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on April 3, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times
Via Associated Press
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