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S&P futures are marginally higher on the day, reversing an earlier loss driven by modestly higher yields after Japan’s 40-year auction sale Wednesday was met with the weakest demand since July, even if it was far more solid than last week's 20Y yearh JGB auction. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1% after the index jumped 2% in the previous session; Nasdaq futures rise 0.2%. Premarket, with NVDA rising 1% ahead of tonight’s earnings; the balance of Mag7 names are seeing slight weakness and Defensives are outperforming Cyclicals. Europe's Estoxx 50 trades slightly lower with losses led by health care and consumer staples sectors. European stocks dropped 0.3% with losses led by health care and consumer staples sectors, while Asian markets were steady as weakness in Chinese tech firms tempered gains in semiconductor shares. The 10Y yield is flat, erasing some modest earlier gains with a weaker JGB auction being credited for weakness in the global bond market. USD is flat helping commodities catch a bid where Energy and Precious Metals are pushing the group higher. Today’s macro data focus will be on Fed Minutes and the 5Y bond auction; but today is only about NVDA and then near-term market direction. 

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are mixed: Nvidia +0.6% ahead of earnings with the other six mostly in the green (Alphabet +0.3%, Apple +0.3%, Tesla +0.5%, Amazon +0.09%, Microsoft -0.08%, Meta Platforms is flat). Booz Allen slips 2% as Goldman Sachs cut its rating to sell, citing limited revenue and earnings growth in the medium term as federal civilian agency budgets are under pressure. Okta (OKTA) slumps 10% after the cybersecurity company gave a weaker-than-expected outlook. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Box (BOX) jumps 10% after the software company raised its full-year forecast. Analysts highlight billings as an area of particular strength.
• Elevance Health (ELV) jumps 6% after the health insurer reaffirmed its adjusted profit forecast for the full year ahead of an investors’ meeting.
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY) falls 9% after the crypto company reported an underwritten offering of 29 million shares.
• GameStop (GME) gains 4% after announcing the purchase of 4,710 Bitcoin tokens. This is the video-game seller’s first Bitcoin purchase after it announced in March that it plans to add the cryptocurrency as a treasury reserve asset
• Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) gains 9% after the announcement that Toyota Motor Corp. had invested $250 million in the air taxi maker, completing the first half of a previously announced $500 million commitment.
• Macy’s Inc. rises about 2% after posting better-than-expected quarterly results — a sign the department-store operator’s strategy of focusing on its best-performing locations is starting to pay off.
• Vail Resorts (MTN) jumps 12% after the operator of ski resorts said it reappointed Rob Katz as CEO, succeeding Kirsten Lynch, who has stepped down from the role.

Today we get what may be the most important earnings report this quarter, when AI-vanguard Nvidia reports earnings after the close. In a year in which Trump’s tariff war has spurred significant market volatility, there’s high anticipation around the AI-bellwether’s earnings; the chipmaker’s blistering multi-year rally has already faced scrutiny over whether massive investment in AI is justified and as its products have gotten caught up in US-China trade acrimony.

“Nvidia earnings are going to be really significant,” said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at St James’s Place in London. “The fact that macro investors now look at Nvidia as an event shows just how big that company has become.”

Good results from Nvidia could unleash some of the $7 trillion parked in cash and spur stocks higher. But the setup is challenging, with Nvidia close to overbought territory and possible complications in the numbers.

Besides Nvidia, all eyes were on today's ultra long-dated 40Y auction in Japan, which drew the weakest demand since July but was stronger than last week's catastrophic 20Y auction. Japan's 30-year yield jumped 10 basis points following the auction. The poor reception sent Japanese longer-dated bonds sliding on Wednesday, prompting similar moves in US and European fixed income markets. US Treasuries of the same maturity snapped three days of gains, with the yield rising three basis points to 4.98%, before erasing the move. UK and German 30-year borrowing costs also climbed 3 bps, but the move was largely reversed.

As the turnaround in stocks from April’s lows shows signs of stalling, investor exposure to equities remains low enough that the “path of least resistance” is higher, according to strategists at Barclays. Institutional investors weren’t a big part of the stock rebound in May, with positioning remaining broadly underweight. Absent a volatility shock, “systematic buying could continue to help equities to grind higher,” the team led by Emmanuel Cau wrote in a note.

“Unless fundamental concerns about further yield increases — driven by supply-demand imbalances and expectations for fiscal expansion — are resolved, this is not the right timing to engage in outright purchases or flattener trades,” said Miki Den, a senior rates strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities in Tokyo.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 falls 0.3% with underperformance seen in health care, retail and technology names. Here are the most notable European movers:

• Stellantis gains as much as 1% in Milan after the carmaker says Antonio Filosa, current Chief Operating Officer for the Americas, will assume CEO functions on June 23, according to a statement.
• Tenaris shares rise as much as 5.5%, the most in over a month, after the Italian steel firm approved a share buyback program for as much as $1.2 billion.
• Softcat rises as much as 4.4%, hitting the highest since March 2022, after releasing a short statement in which the UK IT reseller says it delivered double-digit year-on-year growth in gross profit and operating profit in the third quarter.
• Elekta gains as much as 6%, the most since April 10, after the Swedish medical-equipment firm’s earnings showed improved margins.
• Rentokil shares rise as much as 2.2% to a three-week high, after the support-services company agreed to offload its Workwear business in France, which analysts at Jefferies said is a “positive catalyst for the shares”.
• Pets at Home shares gained as much as 3.4% to a six-month high after the retailer posted FY25 figures in line with guidance while raising its annual dividend and launching a new buyback.
• Northern Data shares rise as much as 12% after the Frankfurt-listed technology and crypto firm said in a statement on Wednesday that it had received strategic interest for its Taiga Cloud and Ardent divisions.
• L’Oreal falls as much as 2.1% after JPMorgan (underweight) put the cosmetics stock on “negative catalyst watch” ahead of 2Q results, saying sales may disappoint.
• Kingfisher shares drop as much as 5.4%, the most in two months, after the DIY retailer left investors disappointed by not upgrading its annual profit guidance, according to analysts, despite better weather in the UK helping like-for-like sales to come in ahead of expectations in the first quarter.
• Greggs shares fall as much as 5.3%, before paring some losses. Shore downgrades the stock to hold from buy, as the broker resets its forecasts to align with the food-on-the-go retailer’s more modest growth expectations.
• Soitec shares plunge as much as 26% after the company withdrew its guidance for 2026 and its medium-term revenue and Ebitda margin targets, citing reduced visibility and market uncertainties.
• Galderma shares drop as much as 3.4% as some shareholders look to sell an 8% stake in the Swiss skincare giant. Vontobel says that as these exit, some overhang could build up.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities were steady as weakness in Chinese tech firms tempered gains in semiconductor shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed after rising as much as 0.6%. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and TSMC gained ahead of Nvidia’s earnings after the US close on Wednesday. Shares of Tencent Holdings and Alibaba were the biggest drags on the regional gauge. “We expect choppy markets over the summer, as several risk events are on the calendar,” Chetan Seth, Asia strategist at Nomura Holdings, wrote in a note. The brokerage sees “limited upside” for Asia ex-Japan equities but slightly raised MSCI Asia ex-Japan end-2025 target to 772 from 754. While a weaker dollar and President Donald Trump’s policies have bolstered inflows into the region, Asian economies still face the prospects of high tariffs if individual countries fail to secure a trade deal with the US. Persistent worries over a slowdown in the world’s largest economy also weigh on sentiment. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1% trading close to its lowest levels since 2023. The currency has slumped more than 7% this year on the back of a retreat from US assets. The kiwi is the best performing G-10 currency, rising 0.4% against the greenback after the RBNZ signaled interest rates are now close to neutral.

In rates, treasuries are cheaper across the curve, with losses led by the long-end following similar price action across core European rates, leaving 2s10s around session highs leading into the early US session. Long-end remains in focus, after Japan’s 40-year auction sale Wednesday was met with the weakest demand since July. US yields are cheaper by up to 2bp across long-end of the curve with 5s30s spread steeper by around 1bp on the day, unwinding a portion of Tuesday’s flattening move. US 10-year yields trade flat around 4.45%, reversing an earlier rise of 3bps,  with gilts lagging by almost 2bp in the sector, weighing on Treasuries. US session includes 5-year note sale at 1pm New York, following Tuesday’s solid $69 billion 2-year auction. The WI 2-year at ~3.965% is ~17bp cheaper than the April stop-out, which tailed the WI by 0.6bp.

In commodities, WTI rises 0.6% to $61.20 a barrel ahead of an OPEC+ committee meeting to review production quotes later on Wednesday. Spot gold climbs $20 to around $3,322/oz. Bitcoin falls 0.8% and below $109,000.

Looking at the US economic calendar, we get the May Richmond Fed manufacturing index (10am) and Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). Fed speaker slate empty for the session. FOMC meeting minutes from May 7 are released at 2pm.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini 0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini 0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3%
• DAX -0.3%
• CAC 40 -0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 4.47%
• VIX +0.4 points at 19.33
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1216.3
• euro little changed at $1.1338
• WTI crude +0.6% at $61.23/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Elon Musk expressed dissatisfaction with Trump’s tax bill, telling CBS it undercut his efforts to slash government spending. BBG
• Trump posted that he told Canada, which wants to be part of the Golden Dome System, it will cost USD 61bln if they remain a separate nation, but will cost zero if they become our 51st State, while he added "They are considering the offer!"
• FHFA head Pulte posted on X that Fed Chair Powell should lower interest rates now.
• Trump posted that he is working on taking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public but wants to be clear that the government will keep its implicit guarantees.
• China’s Huawei pushes for the creation of a domestic chemical firm capable of cutting Western suppliers (like Shin-Etsu, DuPont, and Dow) out of its supply chain as part of a broader initiative to increase technological self-sufficiency. Nikkei
• China plans to open its commodities markets further by letting foreign investors use FX as collateral for yuan trades. The move aims to boost its pricing power and promote the currency globally. BBG
• Investor appetite for long-term Japanese government bonds remained sluggish on Wed, with yields on sovereign bonds rising amid persistently soft demand. At an auction for 40y JGBs held Wed, the bid to cover ratio, which measures demand, fell to 2.21, the lowest since July 2024. Nikkei
• Japan’s MOF (Ministry of Finance) will hold a meeting on June 20 with JGB primary dealers amid speculation the gov’t could dial back ultra-long issuance to reduce upward pressure on yields. Nikkei
• India has offered “deep” cuts to its important tariffs on a swath of goods in talks with the US, but is seeking to retain its high levies on sensitive agricultural commodities. FT
• Eurozone inflation expectations over 12 months rose 20bp to +3.1% (the highest level since Feb ’24) and were unchanged over 36 months (at +2.5%) and unchanged over 60 months (at +2.1%). ECB
• Israel considers whether to proceed with a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, leading to increased tensions between Netanyahu and Trump. NYT
• Fed minutes from the May 6–7 meeting may show rising concern over inflation and unemployment risks and reflect policymakers’ wait-and-see approach. BBG
• Fed's Williams (voter) said inflation expectations are well anchored and he wants to avoid inflation becoming highly persistent as that could become permanent, while he added that a way to avoid that is to respond relatively strongly when inflation begins to deviate from target and noted they have to be very aware that inflation expectations could shift in ways that could be detrimental.

Tariffs/Trade

• Japan is said to propose buying US-made semiconductor chips as part of US trade talks.
• Mexico's Agricultural Ministry said Mexico and the US agreed on measures targeted at reopening Mexican cattle exports to the US and the USDA mission is to travel to Mexico in the coming days.
• Brazil's government decided to renew trade defence measures in the steel sector with Brazil's trade body maintaining a 25% tariff on 19 steel products and extended the measure to four other products, while renewed tariffs on steel products are valid for 12 months.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher following the rally on Wall St where sentiment was underpinned by strong consumer confidence and as US participants took their first opportunity to react to President Trump's tariff delay for the EU. ASX 200 lacked conviction after mixed data including firmer-than-expected CPI data and disappointing Construction Work. Nikkei 225 gapped higher at the open following the recent currency weakness and the drop in super-long JGB yields. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded indecisively after mixed earnings releases and a lack of major fresh macro drivers.

Top Asian News

• RBNZ cut the OCR by 25bps to 3.25%, as expected, while it stated inflation is within the target band but core inflation is declining and that it is well placed to respond to domestic and international developments. RBNZ said both tariffs and policy uncertainties overseas are to moderate recovery, although conditions are consistent with inflation returning to the mid-point of the 1-3% target band over the medium term. In terms of the projections, it lowered its forecasts for the OCR across the projection horizon with the OCR seen at 3.12% in September 2025 (prev. 3.23%), 2.87% in June 2026 (prev. 3.1%) and 2.9% in September 2026 (prev. 3.1%). Furthermore, the minutes from the meeting stated the Committee discussed the options of keeping the OCR on hold at 3.50% or reducing it to 3.25% and the Committee noted that the full economic effects of cuts in the OCR since August 2024 are yet to be fully realised, while it also revealed that the decision to cut was made by a majority of 5 votes to 1.
• RBNZ Governor Hawkesby said the decision to hold a vote on rates was a healthy sign and not unusual at turning points, while he stated they did form a consensus projection for the cash rate, but added there is a high degree of uncertainty and central projections are wide enough for them to not have a bias either way in terms of what the next step is at the next meeting. Furthermore, he stated the key message is that they have come a long way and are well placed to respond to developments but are not pre-programmed on moves now.
• BoJ Governor Ueda said many tariff negotiations, including those between the US and Japan, are still ongoing, so the outlook remains uncertain and it remains unclear how tariff policies would affect the world and Japan's economy Ueda said they will carefully examine data and will closely monitor the bond market, as well as be mindful that large swings in super long bond yields could impact other yields.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) opened around the unchanged mark but sentiment has since slipped to display a mostly negative picture in Europe. Nothing specific for the recent downside, but perhaps as focus turns to FOMC Minutes and NVIDIA results thereafter. European sectors are mixed, in-fitting with the indecisive risk-tone. Real Estate leads, with UK homebuilders boosting the sectors amid reports that the UK Government will ease planning hurdles for small housebuilders. Retail posts very narrow losses, with pressure stemming from post-earning downside in Kingfisher (-2.9%). Fashion retailer Shein reportedly working towards a Hong Kong listing after London IPO plans stalled; will file prospectus in the coming weeks; plans to IPO within this year, according to Reuters sources.

Top European News

• ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (April): See inflation in next 12 months at 3.1% (prev. 2.9%); 3y ahead sees 2.5% (prev. 2.5%); Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months -1.9% (prev. -1.2%)
• ECB's Lagarde has reportedly discussed stepping down as ECB President early in order to chair the WEF, via FT citing WEF founder Schwab. ECB spokesperson said ECB President Lagarde is determined to complete her term at the ECB.

FX

• DXY is marginally extending on Tuesday's upside which was triggered by optimism on the trade front and a strong Consumer Confidence release. Newsflow has been light, but docket ahead will include US Richmond Fed Index, FOMC Minutes and NVIDIA results which could impact sentiment.
• Note, Citi's month-end rebalancing model points to a net selling of USD vs. all of the major currencies with the strongest signals vs. JPY and GBP.
• EUR has seen a slight extension of losses vs. the USD after printing a MTD high on Monday at 1.1419. Focus remains on the trade front given the slew of headlines across recent sessions which has seen the EU seemingly increasing efforts to reach a deal with the US after President Trump threatened an escalation last week. The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey for April showed the 12-month ahead inflation expectation rise to 3.1% from 2.9% and the 12-month ahead growth forecast cut to -1.9% from -1.2%. EUR/USD briefly slipped onto a 1.12 handle with a session trough at 1.1296.
• JPY is fractionally firmer vs. the USD after a soft showing yesterday on account of a strong USD and declines in long-end Japanese yields after reports that Japan's MoF could trim the issuance of super long debt. It's worth noting that the 40yr JGB auction overnight was weak. Elsewhere, the latest reports note that Japan is said to propose buying US-made semiconductor chips as part of US trade talks. USD/JPY had ventured as high as 144.76 overnight but has since pulled back to levels closer to the 144 mark.
• GBP flat vs. the USD in what has been a week lacking in major updates from the UK and could well remain the case. BoE Chief Economist is due to speak at 16:00BST, however, the text release will be from a speech delivered on 22nd May. Cable is currently lingering just above the 1.35 mark after hitting a multi-year high on Monday at 1.3593.
• NZD is top of the G10 leaderboard post-RBNZ. As expected, the bank delivered a 25bps rate cut, however, the decision was subject to hawkish dissent from one member. Furthermore, whilst the bank lowered its OCR forecasts, ING notes that they don't fully signal that rates will be trimmed to 2.75%.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1894 vs exp. 7.1996 (Prev. 7.1876).

Fixed Income

• JGBs pulled back at the start of APAC trade after the marked upside seen on Tuesday after reporting around the MOF. An acceleration of this occurred after the highly anticipated 40yr JGB auction. Overall, the outing was a disappointment, featuring an elevated yield and weak cover.
• USTs fell alongside JGBs after the 40yr auction results. Pressure which took USTs to a 110-07+ base and essentially eroded the strength seen after the US’ robust 2yr tap. The results of this helped to drive the complex to a 110-18 high. Ahead, the docket features a 5yr auction, FOMC Minutes, the latest executive order signing by POTUS and NVIDIA earnings.
• Bunds hit an overnight in tandem with JGBs. Since, have been a little choppy in a slim 130.73 to 131.00 band, which is just below Tuesday’s 130.75 base. Modest bounce on cooler-than-expected German import prices this morning, the series posted the largest M/M decline (-1.7%) since April 2020, driven primarily by energy prices. No significant move to the ECB SCE which saw a rise in 12-month inflation expectations and a cut in growth expectations. German auction had little impact on Bunds.
• Gilts opened lower by a handful of ticks, acknowledging the JGB auction. Action since has been slightly bearish, in-fitting with above peers, but minimal in nature as UK specifics have been largely non-existent.
• UK DMO announces the syndicated launch of a new I/L 2038 Gilt, to launch in the week of June 9th.
• Demand for Spain's new 10yr syndicated bond exceeds EUR 105bln, according to the Lead Manager.
• Orders for the new BTP Italia reach EUR 4bln, via Reuters citing bourse data.
• UK sells GBP 2.75bln 0.875% 2033 Green Gilt: b/c 3.56x (prev. 3.1x), avg. yield 4.511% (prev. 4.473%) & tail 0.3bps (prev. 0.7bps)

Commodities

• Choppy trade once again in the crude complex as the clock ticks down to today's JMMC and OPEC+ meetings; sources suggest 09:00ET or 09:30ET. Market focus will largely be on the Saturday meeting, assuming no policy decision is front-run and announced at the Wednesday meeting.
• Modest upward tilt in precious metals but with newsflow quiet in the run-up to the FOMC minutes, with trade updates also on the lighter side. The yellow metal currently resides in a USD 3,291.70-3,323.89/oz range.
• Modest upward tilt across base metals, albeit with the breadth of the market particularly narrow amid a lack of macro newsflow and ahead of the FOMC minutes. Copper futures overnight remained lacklustre and resumed the prior day's declines with price action not helped by the lack of conviction in its largest buyer. 3M LME copper remains north of USD 9,500/t in a USD 9,567.00-9,651.45/t.
• US issued narrow authorisation for Chevron (CVX) to keep joint venture stakes in Venezuela although the new authorisation does not allow oil production operations or exports, according to the sources cited by Reuters.
• DoE is reportedly weighing emergency authority to keep coal plants running, according to Axios.

Geopolitics

• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov told International Security Conference that they will announce the next round of direct talks with Ukraine in the near future.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky says he will attend the G7. Wants USD 30bln to fully fund Ukraine's defence manufacturing capacity. Russia offered Belarus as a location for talks, this is not possible for Ukraine. Most realistic places for a peace agreement to be attained are Switzerland, Turkey & Vatican.
• Russian Defence Ministry said air defence units destroyed and intercepted 112 Ukrainian drones over a three-hour period, while Moscow's Mayor said Russian air defence units repelled six Ukrainian drones headed for the capital.
• Israeli officials told US counterparts in April that they were preparing to attack nuclear sites in Iran, according to NYT. Subsequently, Israeli PM Netanyahu's office denies New York Times report of attack on Iran: "Fake news", according to Kann News.
• Iranian Nuclear Chief Eslami says, in the scenario of a US nuclear deal, then Iran could allow US inspectors as part of IAEA teams.
• German Chancellor Merz will not deliver Taurus to Ukraine, according to Politico Journalist Hans von der Burchard.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: May 23 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -5.1%
• 10:00 am: May Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. -9, prior -13
• 2:00 pm: May 7 FOMC Meeting Minutes

Central Banks

• 4:00 am: Fed’s Kashkari Participates in Moderated Q&A
• 2:00 pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

With US and UK markets returning from the public holiday, markets put in another strong performance over the last 24 hours. In part, that stemmed from a holiday-delayed reaction to Trump delaying the threat of 50% EU tariffs until July 9. But markets got a further boost from the Japanese bond rally we discussed this time yesterday, with extra impetus from stronger US data, as the Conference Board’s consumer confidence print was noticeably higher than expected. So that led to a cross-asset rally, with the S&P 500 (+2.05%) picking up after 4 consecutive declines, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (-6.7bps) fell back to 4.45%.

The biggest of those catalysts was the news out of Japan, which meant the country’s 30yr yield fell by more than -19bps in yesterday’s session. That was its biggest daily decline since the regional banking turmoil of March 2023, and marked a sharp reversal from recent weeks, when yields had hit their highest level since that maturity was first issued. As a reminder, the move came after several media outlets reported that Japan’s finance ministry sent out a questionnaire to market participants, asking about their views on issuance. So that led to speculation that they were about to cut long-dated issuance, leading to a huge rally among those bonds. That rally in Japan then echoed around the world, with long-end bond yields seeing a significant decline. For instance, the 30yr Treasury yield (-8.6bps) was down to 4.95%, which helped to ease fears about the US debt trajectory. And in Europe, 30yr yields fell back in Germany (-6.1bps), France (-5.6bps) and Italy (-5.8bps) as well.

However JGB yields have reversed some of their rally this morning as demand at a 40yr auction fell to its lowest since July, with the bid-to-cover ratio at 2.2 from 2.9 at the previous sale in March. 10 and 30yr JGB yields are up +7.4bps and +9.0bps respectively as I type.

Nevertheless yields are still comfortably lower than where they started the week and that has supported risk over the last 24 hours, with US equities seeing a strong recovery after the long weekend. That included the S&P 500 (+2.05%), which put in its best performance since the US and China agreed to slash their tariff rates a couple of weeks earlier. That was turbocharged by the Magnificent 7 (+3.24 %) ahead of Nvidia’s results tonight. But the rally was a broad-based one, and small-caps in the Russell 2000 also rose +2.48%. Outside the US, even more records were set, with Germany’s DAX (+0.83%) and Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite (+0.75%) both closing at all-time highs. And the advance continued elsewhere, with the STOXX 600 (+0.33%) posting a second day of gains.

This optimism was clear across the board, not least in the US Dollar’s recovery, after a few tepid sessions, suggesting that investors were moving back into US assets again. It was the strongest-performing G10 currency yesterday, and the dollar index itself was up +0.59%. Other indicators of market stress eased too, with the VIX index down -1.61pts to 18.96pts, whilst US HY spreads tightened by -14bps to 316bps.

Those moves got further momentum from the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence indicator for May. That rose for the first time in six months, rebounding by more than expected to 98.0 (vs. 87.1 expected). That included a particularly large jump in the expectations component, which surged 17.4pts on the month to 72.8, which is the biggest monthly rise since May 2009, as the US economy was still emerging from the aftershocks of the global financial crisis. So that helped to cement the view that a serious downturn would likely be avoided, which helped to support risk assets.
Meanwhile on the trade front, there was growing optimism that more trade deals were in the pipeline, particularly after Trump agreed to delay the threatened EU tariffs from June 1 until July 9. Only yesterday, NEC director Kevin Hasset said to CNBC that “we’ll probably see a few more deals, even this week.” And Trump himself said in a post that “ I have just been informed that the E.U. has called to quickly establish meeting dates.” So there was growing optimism that some kind of compromise could still be reached.

Elsewhere, we had several headlines from central bank officials. Notably at the ECB, Austria’s Holzmann endorsed keeping rates unchanged at the next couple of meetings, saying that moving rates “further south would be more risky than staying where we are and waiting until September”. He’s one of the most hawkish on the Governing Council and had already called for a pause at the last meeting in April. Germany’s Nagel, another typically hawkish voice, said it was too early to say if the ECB will cut rates in June. Meanwhile, ECB Chief Economist Lane said that the ECB can respond with further cuts “If we see signs of further falling inflation” but suggested that the terminal rate in the easing cycle was unlikely to be below 1.5%. Markets are still pricing in a 25bp cut as a near-certainty for June, with a pause considered more likely at the meeting after that in July.

Against that backdrop, 10yr yields moved lower across Europe, with those on bunds (-2.9bps), OATs (-3.3bps) and BTPs (-3.6bps) all declining. That fit into the broader risk-on move, as it pushed the 10yr Italian spread over bunds to just 98.5bps, the tightest since September 2021. However, front-end yield moves were more muted, with the 2yr German yield actually up +0.8bps on the day as part of a global curve flattening. That was repeated in the US as well, where the 2yr Treasury only fell -1.1bps to 3.98%, whereas the 10yr yield fell by a larger -6.7bps to 4.45%. As discussed at the top global yields are giving back some of their gains this morning with 10 and 30yr UST yields around +3bps higher this morning after the weak JGB auction.

Asian equity markets are still mostly higher this morning though, even if they're coming off earlier highs, with the KOSPI (+1.29%) outperforming and rallying to a nine-month high on outsized gains in tech stocks with sentiment improving ahead of next week's election. The Nikkei (+0.21%) is also higher with Chinese indices trading either side of flat. 

However the Hang Seng (-0.55%) is bucking the regional trend while the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.16%) is swinging between gains and losses after a strong consumer inflation report (more below). In overnight trading, US equity futures are down around a tenth of a percent.

Coming back to Australia, headline inflation remained stable at 2.4% year-on-year to April, a bit higher than the projected 2.3%. This slight increase was driven by rising health and holiday expenses, which counteracted the effect of falling petrol prices. The RBA's preferred inflation gauge, the trimmed mean, climbed to 2.8%.

In monetary policy action, the RBNZ reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points as expected to 3.25% and signaled a larger-than-anticipated future easing cycle. This decision was driven by growing concerns about the impact of evolving US trade policies on economic growth, with the bank now forecasting rates of 2.92% and 2.85% for late 2025 and early 2026, respectively.

To the day ahead now, and central bank highlights include the minutes from the FOMC’s May meeting, along with remarks from the Fed’s Kashkari and the BoE’s Pill. We’ll also get the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for April. Data releases include German unemployment for May, and in the US there’s the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for May. Finally, earnings releases include Nvidia.

Authored by Ezra Reguerra via CoinTelegraph.com,

As Sweden reconsiders its push toward a cashless society, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin highlighted the fragility of centralized digital payments and the opportunity presented by decentralized payment alternatives. 

In recent years, Sweden has led the charge toward a cashless future, with digital payment platforms becoming widespread. However, as concerns over cyber-threats, civil defense and instability have emerged, Swedish authorities are now actively encouraging citizens to keep some cash. 

Buterin noted the reversal illustrates that while centralized solutions may be efficient, they may not be reliable during times of crisis. 

“Nordics are walking back the cashless society initiative because their centralized implementation of the concept is too fragile,” Buterin wrote, citing a March 16 article by The Guardian. “Cash turns out necessary as a backup.”

Source: Vitalik Buterin

How Ethereum can play a role in a crisis

A former central bank official predicted in 2018 that Sweden would be cashless after seven years. In 2025, the prediction mostly held, with only one in 10 transactions in the country being done in cash, according to The Guardian.

Still, while the Nordic country was an early adopter of digital payments, its government published a brochure encouraging citizens to keep a week’s worth of cash in case of war or crisis. Sweden’s reconsideration has revealed the issue of centralized digital payment infrastructure remaining reliable in times of instability, Buterin suggested. 

Buterin said Ethereum can be a decentralized financial fallback in times of crisis. “Ethereum needs to be resilient enough, and private enough, to be able to credibly play this kind of role,” Buterin said. 

When asked if fully offline zero-knowledge technology-secured private transfers were close to practical implementation, Buterin said the tech know-how is already there, but there are still limitations: 

Crypto payments exec thinks crypto won’t replace fiat

While crypto payment solutions are becoming more common, Mercuryo co-founder and CEO Petr Kozyakov has said that crypto will not replace fiat. 

Kozyakov told Cointelegraph in an interview that crypto payments are seeing an increase in demand and adoption.

However, the executive said that instead of cryptocurrencies fully replacing fiat money as a payment method, the two payment options will coexist. 

Kozyakov told Cointelegraph that people will use crypto when it’s easier and more practical.

Authored by Guy Millière via The Gatestone Institute,

February 14, 2025. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance delivers remarks in Germany, at the Munich Security Conference. 

The audience expects him to talk about foreign policy, geopolitics, and threats facing the world.

Instead, he says that the most worrying threat today is "the threat from within, the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values." 

He adds that European countries and institutions are undermining democracy and freedom of speech -- and gives examples.

"A former European commissioner," Vance states, "went on television recently and sounded delighted that the Romanian government had just annulled an entire election."

In fact, Thierry Breton, the European Union's former internal market commissioner, admitted in a French television interview that the Romanian Constitutional Court had bowed to EU pressure and annulled the country's presidential elections because right-wing candidate, Călin Georgescu, had a good chance of winning. "We did it in Romania," Breton said, "and of course we will have to do it, if necessary, in Germany."

On February 26, when Georgescu went to register as a candidate for the presidential election re-run organized a few months after the annulled election, he was arrested by the police and charged with "attempting to overthrow the constitutional order." To date, the Romanian authorities have provided no evidence to substantiate that allegation.

"The very same thing could happen in Germany, too," Vance said in his Munich speech.

The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party which participated in the German parliamentary elections of February 23, came in second place with 20.8%. The center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which won the plurality of votes (28.5%), however, chose to boycott the AfD and instead chose to form a government with the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) -- which formed the previous government and which the Germans had just rejected, giving it only 16.4% of the vote.

Germany's new chancellor, CDU leader Friedrich Merz, had declared during the election campaign, "We will not work with the party that calls itself Alternative for Germany -- not before [the election], not after, never."

Merz stuck to his word. Just after the election, Germany's domestic intelligence agency designated the AfD an "extremist organization" and a "threat to democracy". The reason given was that the AfD is "anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim". The AfD could be banned by the government.

Vance continued:

"I look to Brussels, where EU commissars warn citizens that they intend to shut down social media during times of civil unrest, the moment they spot what they've judged to be 'hateful content.'"

Indeed, in 2022, the European Union adopted the Digital Services Act (DSA), which is supposed to "protect the rights of social media users" and "provide a safer online environment" by "limiting the spread of illegal and harmful content." What constitutes "illegal and harmful content" was not defined and could be anything the European Commission defines as such, along with the right to impose fines and shut the websites down.

Although Vance's claims were indisputable, the officials present immediately expressed shock. Statements from European political leaders exploded:

Germany's Former Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Vance's remarks were "not appropriate," adding:

"Never again fascism, never again racism, never again aggressive war... Today's democracies in Germany and Europe are founded on the historic awareness and realization that democracies can be destroyed by radical anti-democrats... we've created institutions that ensure that our democracies can defend themselves against their enemies, and rules that do not restrict or limit our freedom but protect it."

France's Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stated that "Freedom of speech is guaranteed in Europe."

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer noted:

"We've had free speech for a very, very long time in the United Kingdom, and it will last for a very, very long time... in relation to free speech in the UK, I'm really proud of that—our history there."

Christoph Heusgen, chairman of the Munich Security Conference Chairman, at the end of the conference, said that Vance's remarks had made it "a European nightmare.... We have to fear that our common basis of values is not common anymore." He then broke down in tears.

It is quite possible that the "common basis of values" ​​that once bound Europe and the United States is no longer common. If that is true, however, it is for the reasons listed by Vance: that European leaders and governments have moved away from what once bound Europe and the United States, such as freedom of speech and free and fair elections, the results of which are actually enacted.

Scholz's argument about fascism, racism and the threat to democracy is simply unfounded, if not an inversion of the facts. Georgescu made no fascist or racist statements and has never threatened democracy. On the contrary, he has affirmed his desire to defend national sovereignty and Western civilization and has declared himself close to the positions of the Trump administration, which are neither fascist nor racist.

In 2018, AfD politician Alexander Gauland said that "Hitler and the Nazis are just a speck of bird poop in more than 1,000 years of successful German history."

In 2017, Björn Höcke, the leader of the AfD in the German state of Thuringia, called the Holocaust Memorial in Berlin a "memorial of shame."

But the words of Gauland and Höcke do not represent the AfD party line. Gauland clarified his remarks only days later, saying:

"Many saw the expression as an inappropriate trivialization... nothing could be further from me than to allow such an impression to arise.... I regret the resulting impression. It was never my intention to trivialize or deride the victims of this criminal system.

The reason given by Germany's domestic intelligence agency for designating AfD an "extremist organization" is neither fascism nor racism. In fact, not a single AfD leader advocates fascist or racist positions, and, what actually may be objectionable to many Europeans, is that AfD is "the most pro-Israel and philo-Semitic" party in Germany.

"That's not democracy," Secretary of State Marco Rubio said about the German domestic intelligence agency's decision, "it's tyranny in disguise."

Ironically, in the United States, Democratic National Committee (DNC) this month voided the election of David Hogg and Malcolm Kenyatta as DNC vice-chairmen, ostensibly on "procedural grounds." Following his election, Hogg had said he planned to raise funds to support challengers in the primaries of incumbent Democrat officeholders. In June, the DNC will be considering a re-do of the election, presumably in the hope of get a pre-determined outcome. Meanwhile, many Democrats endlessly criticize the Republican Party for "destroying democracy."

Contrary to what the French foreign minister claimed, freedom of speech is declining in Europe, particularly in France. Former journalist and presidential candidate Éric Zemmour has been convicted countless times and handed heavy fines simply for criticizing Islam and Muslim immigration. His most recent sentencing took place on March 26, 2025. After the murder of a young Frenchman by a gang of Muslims, Zemmour spoke of the presence in France of criminals who are "Arab-Muslim scum." He was found guilty of delivering a "racist insult."

Novelist Renaud Camus was convicted in 2014 of incitement to hatred for saying that France was being "invaded" by Muslim immigrants.

The French television channel C8 was shut down by the Regulatory Authority for Audiovisual and Digital Communication (Arcom), for "lack of diversity and pluralism." CNews, another French television channel, was fined heavily by Arcom for the same "crime" and remains at risk of being shut down. Any television station similar to America's Fox News would not be allowed to exist in France.

Freedom of speech in the United Kingdom, contrary to what Starmer said, is very much in danger. In recent months, British citizens have been sentenced to prison for posting messages critical of Islam on social media, and for even praying near an abortion clinic.

This anti-democratic drift has taken hold in several European countries. Politicians and parties who disagree with the worldview of the officials in power are increasingly being excluded from any possibility of running for an official position:

In Germany, as mentioned, Merz chose to shut out the AfD.

In France, Marine Le Pen, who polls show is in first place for the 2027 presidential election, was sentenced to five years of election ineligibility and four years in prison for allegedly embezzling public funds. The sentence was supposed to go into effect immediately, without a temporary suspension of the conviction pending appeal. After that decision caused a scandal, the Paris Court of Appeal said it would examine the case and issue a final judgment in the summer of 2026.

Le Pen did not embezzle public funds. The judge defined as a crime that assistants to the National Rally's Members of European Parliament who worked in Strasbourg also worked in Paris for the party. The Democratic Movement, a centrist party led by French Prime Minister François Bayrou, did exactly the same thing as the National Rally with its MEPs' assistants, but Bayrou was acquitted by a judge.

In the Netherlands, when the Party for Freedom (PVV) won a plurality of the votes in November 2023 parliamentary elections and its leader, Geert Wilders, attempted to form a government, all the other political parties joined forces to prevent him from doing so until he was forced to withdraw.

In Austria, in September 2024, the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) won a plurality of the votes in the parliamentary elections, and its leader, Herbert Kickl, was prevented from forming a government.

In Italy, on the other hand, when Brothers of Italy (FdI) -- a party with policies similar to those of the French National Rally, the Dutch PVV, and the Austrian FPÖ -- won the 2022 Italian parliamentary elections, its leader, Giorgia Meloni, was able to form a government and is now prime minister. The reason? Fdl happened to be part of an alliance with other right-of-center parties. Now, Meloni is the only politician disparagingly labeled by the European mainstream media as "far right" and able actually to enjoy the result of her election.

Most European leaders today refer to the parties and politicians they wish to exclude as "far right." The term is used to refer to racist, xenophobic and authoritarian parties. None of the parties mentioned above shows the slightest tendency toward racism, xenophobia and authoritarianism half as much as their opponents do. The parties being elbowed out, according to historian and author Daniel Pipes, are not "nationalist,", but patriotic, "defensive, not aggressive." Pipes describes them as "civilizationist":

"They cherish Europe's and the West's traditional culture and want to defend it from assault by immigrants aided by the left.... Civilizationalist parties are populist, anti-immigration, and anti-Islamization. Populist means nursing grievances against the system and a suspicion of an elite that ignores or denigrates those concerns."

The attacks on freedom of speech target statements warning that mass, unvetted migration might bring about a demographic "great replacement" of native Europeans, whose values are Judeo-Christian, by migrants from the Middle East, whose values are basically Islamic. The general apprehension about Islamic values eventually overwhelming European ones is a view condemned by most politicians, the media and the judiciary in Europe, even though the Muslim birthrate is vastly higher than the European one. This apprehension also stems from the fact that the majority of Muslims living in Europe neither integrates nor seems to wish to, and that the proportion of Muslims among criminals in Europe today is far higher than their share of the general population.

Many European leaders today appear blind to the consequences of ever-increasing immigration, and a growing Muslim presence in Europe. They are dismissive of the Muslims' continuing mass-migration, enthusiastic birthrate, and they remain stubbornly deaf to the concerns shouted by their non-Muslim citizenry.

These leaders seem to refuse to see that a serious demographic shift is taking place, even though it is highly visible. They also seem to refuse to see that this demographic shift is swiftly eroding Europe's traditional cultures.

Out-of-control immigration from the Muslim world continues year after year throughout Western Europe, while Germany's birthrate is 1.35 per woman. The figure for Austria is 1.58. For Italy, it is 1.31. For Spain, it is 1.41. The figure for France is 1.85. All of these are significantly far from replacement level, which is 2.1 per woman.

In every country in Western Europe, the birthrate of Muslims is significantly higher than that of the general population.

Even if many Europeans are not aware of the statistical data, they can see with their eyes that a population change is taking place, along with the corrosive destruction of their values and traditions. Voting for "civilizationist" parties, Zemmour has said, is the "reaction of people who do not want to die."

The key question for the future of Europe seems to be: Will "civilizationist" parties remain excluded from any access to power, or will they succeed in overcoming the barriers being put up in their path?

In Romania, George Simion, a presidential candidate whose ideas are close to those of Georgescu, won more than 40% of the vote in the first round of the presidential election and had a strong chance of being elected on May 18. Unexpectedly, he lost. The winner, who had the full support of the European Union, went from 21% in the first round to 53.6% in the second round, an extraordinary performance that probably needs to be analyzed.

In Germany, the AfD has now become the country's most popular party. The German intelligence agency mysteriously decided to walk back AfD's extremist label. In France, polls show that if Marine Le Pen cannot run, Jordan Bardella, the president of the National Rally, has a good chance of being elected in 2027 despite being only 29 years old. In the United Kingdom, Nigel Farage's Reform UK party recently made large gains in English local elections. If Britain's general elections were held soon, would likely win.

The question at the heart of these issues is: Can the anti-democratic drift that has gripped several large European countries be stopped?

"European elites," wrote the American columnist Michael Barone, "seem to have convinced themselves that they must destroy democracy in order to save it."

Will it be possible to save democracy in Europe?

In a recent article, Manhattan Institute fellow Heather Mac Donald wrote:

"Across the West, citizens are rebelling against demographic replacement. A battle is under way between their will and the will of the elites. If Germany's leaders continue to tell a quarter of the German population—decent, law-abiding individuals—that they are at best Hitler-adjacent and at worst Hitler-worshippers for wanting Germany's cultural identity preserved, if those leaders continue to suppress voices and votes, either there will be a massive upset in the halls of power and the people will be liberated, or the mechanisms of repression will grow more sweeping.

"Americans should hope for the former course."