Non-Catholic

Authored by Conor Gallagher via NakedCapitalism.com,

Turkish public opinion of the West dropped due to the Iraq War and has not recovered. There have been almost constant issues since, with both sides fanning the flames – the US with its arrogance and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for using the disputes for political gain. Beneath the surface, however, they continue to cooperate on a wide range of issues.

That might get more difficult. The fact is the US, by supporting Israel’s “plausible” genocide in Gaza, has managed to find an issue that could cause an irreparable break between the West and the vast majority of Turkish citizens, which could make it politically toxic for Erdogan or anyone else to remain partially aligned with the West.

For months after October 7, Erdogan paid lip service to the Palestinian cause while trade kept flowing between Turkiye and Israel. Voters forced him to take a firmer stand at the polls on March 31 when Erdogan’s Justice and Development (AK) Party lost the popular vote for the first time since 2002 – partially due to the government response to Israel’s war in Gaza (the other big issue was the economy).

The Islamist far-right New Welfare Party (YRP) left Erdogan’s ruling People’s Alliance and campaigned on ending trade with Israel, and as a result it became the third largest party nationwide with 6.2 percent of the vote and won 60 municipalities.

A contrite Erdogan said the AKP would begin listening more to voters’ concerns.

On May 2, the news broke that Türkiye is halting all trade with Israel, which in theory could be a major blow to the latter. Türkiye is the fifth-largest source of Israeli imports, which include high-value products like iron, plastic and steel in addition to basic goods such as food items and textiles. In 2022, iron and steel topped the list of Turkish exports to Israel, and were together worth $1.19 billion.

The US surprisingly bit its tongue over Türkiye’s announcement with State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller saying that “they are both allies of ours, and we would encourage them to work through their differences.” The fact is there isn’t a whole lot the US can do as Washington has already pushed so much on the Ukraine issue, trying to do so on the issue of the slaughter in Gaza, which has inflamed public opinion in Türkiye, would be unwise. Miller’s statement also ignores the fact that “their differences” could be solved by the US forcing Israel to put an end to its “plausible” genocide.

Israel’s Foreign Minister said on May 9 that Erdogan was retreating on his trade restrictions only for Ankara to deny that’s the case. That makes the statement from Israel sound either imprudent or like more of a threat.

There are still questions of just how firm Erdogan and the Turks are on the trade suspension.

On May 5, the Israeli financial daily Globes reported the following:

Türkiye has not yet halted the loading of oil tankers at Ceyhan port bound for Israel, according to Israeli sources. Azerbaijan is an important supplier of oil to Israel, via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, at the end of which the oil is loaded onto tankers that bring it to Haifa.

Azerbaijan and Türkiye are strong allies, and Israel enjoys probably its closest ties with a majority Muslim nation with Azerbaijan and is a major supplier of arms to the Caspian country. From 2016 to 2020 Tel Aviv accounted for 69 percent of Azerbaijan’s major arms imports, including loitering munitions (they have been likened to missiles that can hunt for a target while directed from a control station).  The weapons gained notoriety in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War.

Israel is one of the top customers for Azerbaijani oil, importing $297 million worth in January.

If Erdogan really wanted to get tough on Israel and lead the Muslim world response as he’s claimed, he could not only stop the transit of Azerbaijani oil, but maybe even try to do something about other suppliers. After Azerbaijan, the second biggest exporter of oil to Israel is Kazakhstan, which sends it through the Chevron-, ExxonMobil-, and Shell-controlled Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.

Article 5 of the 1936 Montreux Convention states that if Türkiye is a belligerent, neutral merchant vessels may transit the straits by day through designated routes, but only if they do not assist the enemy.

Instead, Israel is beginning to send back its diplomats to Türkiye, half a year after it withdrew them over security concerns, and there are also rumblings about Türkiye rerouting exports through a middleman:

One proposed solution is to transport the products through European countries, according to the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper.

Israeli shipping company iShip Forwarding has suggested a workaround to bypass the ban by establishing a new logistical route where Turkish products are first transported to third countries, and from there, to Israel.This solution allows Turkish manufacturers to continue supplying goods to Israel without violating the ban and without their knowledge that the products are reaching Israel. The shipping company has refused to disclose the specific third country through which the shipment passes, but the Israeli newspaper mentioned Bulgaria and Romania among others. This transit would incur additional costs on the shipment but ensures the continuous flow of goods.

If these reports of Türkiye already softening its trade suspension with Israel are true, more blowback can be expected as Turks are paying close attention to this issue – demonstrated by Erdogan being unable to get away with his usual talk-but-no-action strategy in the recent local elections.

And the longer Erdogan and the higher ups in Türkiye try to keep a lid on popular backlash against Israel and its partners in the West, the more likely it is that the situation explodes.

The Bigger Picture – Türkiye and the West

The number of issues between Ankara and the West over the past few decades are almost too numerous to count. Here’s just a brief list:

• Sanctions and more sanctions. The US sanctions Turkish individuals and companies for “aiding Russia,” for “aiding Iran,” and the US is already threatening to slap on more sanctions over Turkish firms’ exports to Russia. A quick search on the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control site turns up a whopping 232 sanctioned Turkish individuals or entities.  This is not a great look when Türkiye is going through its worst economic crisis in two decades.

• Türkiye was snubbed by the EU.

• Since the 1990s, Ankara asked NATO multiple times to deploy early warning systems and Patriot missiles to Türkiye, but it never came to pass. In 2017 Russia sold Türkiye its S-400 missile defense systems, which are arguably superior to anything the West has. In response the US expelled Türkiye from its F-35 program and sanctioned the country’s defense industry organization and its leaders.

• Possible US involvement in failed 2016 coup attempt.

• US proxy forces in Ukraine have reportedly tried to sabotage pipelines between Russia and Türkiye over the past year.

• Western support of Kurds to the point there exists the possibility of Turkish soldiers coming face to face in the field with American soldiers, who are supporting the YPG in Syria.

• The US abandoned its largely neutral stance on Türkiye’s relationship with both Greece and Cyprus. Washington is ramping up military aid to Greece, turning a port near the Turkish border into a naval base, and sending weaponry to Cyprus after ending a decades-old ban on arms sales.

This has all taken place despite Türkiye’s status as the second most important member of NATO just based on its geographic position, which includes controlling access to the Black Sea. These issues highlight a fundamental difference in how the two sides view the alliance: while Türkiye views itself as something more than just a regional power and wants to be treated as such, the US essentially wants Ankara to follow orders.

For now, the relationship continues largely out of economic necessity. While Turkiye imports cheap and reliable energy from Russia, its factories produce goods for the European market.

But economic concerns can be overruled by popular opinion, as we have seen by Erdogan being mostly forced by voters to start taking more active measures against Israel despite Türkiye’s economic woes. There are no signs that the trajectory of US-Israel attitudes and actions are going to change, and as a result it’s difficult to see how Turkish public opposition to the US-led West doesn’t continue to stiffen.  Sinem Adar, an associate at the Center for Applied Türkiye Studies at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, writing at War on the Rocks:

Türkiye’s ruling elites believe that “the West lacks strategic thinking and has increasingly become estranged from the rest of the world in the face of various issues including relations with China, migration and terror, and the shift in economic gravity from the West to the East.”

For Ankara, the unequivocal and unconditional support that the Biden administration gives Israel confirms this belief. Triggering a convergence between the policies of Türkiye, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and other countries, pro-government journalists expect that the conflict would lead to an increasing isolation of Israel. Regardless of their ideological affiliation, most Turkish political actors tend to see the recent conflict in Gaza as one between the so-called West (led by the United States) and the East. Since the disputed attack at the al-Ahli hospital in Gaza City, there have been calls on the government to ally with countries in the Global South to “stop the U.S.-Israeli alliance.”

Yet the proposed methods vary. Addressing an emergency session of the Organization for Islamic Cooperation on Oct. 18, Fidan called upon Muslim countries to act with “self-confidence” and “challenge the hegemonic narrative that has been imposed on them,” but without offering a concrete roadmap for how to do that. Devlet Bahçeli, the leader of the AKP’s junior partner, the Nationalist Movement Party, said Türkiye should intervene militarily if there is no ceasefire. Those critical of Ankara’s civilizationist aspirations yet share its aspirations for a foreign policy independent from the West call for booting U.S. military members at Incirlik Air Force Base and the Kürecik Radar Station in Malatya.

While the main opposition remains committed to the West and even the usually nimble Erdogan has looked a bit slow in keeping up with public opinion on the Palestine issue, others are beginning to fill the gaps, speaking out against the lack of Turkish action on Palestine, as well as increasingly blaming NATO.

There were protests at the American Incirlik air base in November. Protestors tried to storm the base and fought with police in riot gear who fired tear gas and used water cannons to disperse the crowds. The base in southern Türkiye is reportedly still used by the US to deliver weapons to Israel. There’s also the fact that Incirlik hosts US nuclear weapons, which has become increasingly controversial. Asked about it before the 2020 election, Biden said he is “worried.”

According to Nordic Monitor, the protests were at least partially organized by the Turkish intelligence agency MIT, which in a bid to give Erdogan more leverage in talks with DC, “engaged a jihadist charity organization to orchestrate a nationwide march.” Let’s hope MIT doesn’t lose control of its assets.

There have also been protests at NATO’s Kürecik Radar Station in southeastern Türkiye, where thousands chanted against Israel and NATO. Although Türkiye agreed to host the radar station under the condition that information gathered there only be shared with NATO member states, it is widely believed Israel also receives the information. Iran criticized Türkiye when the radar was being installed back in 2011, saying it would help to protect Israel from Iranian missile attacks in case of a war.

Seeing as the US and Israel are joined at the hip, Israel’s actions in Gaza also increase opposition in Türkiye to the US and NATO. And this trend predates Israel’s “plausible” genocide:

A poll conducted in December 2022 by the Turkish company Gezici found that 72.8% of Turkish citizens polled were in favor of good relations with Russia. By comparison, nearly 90% perceive the United States as a hostile country. It also revealed that 24.2% of citizens believe that Russia is hostile, while 62.6% believe that Russia is a friendly country. Similarly, more than 60% of respondents said that Russia contributes positively to the Turkish economy.

Those results are astounding. Russia and Türkiye share a long, difficult history, and as recently as 2016, Russia was seen by the public as the biggest threat to Türkiye. Only 16 percent of Turks had a favorable opinion of Russia in 2014. The major reversal is likely the result of a sustained campaign by Russia to improve ties through energy links and the construction of Türkiye’s first nuclear power plant. Further US heavy handedness haven’t helped, and there’s a strong possibility that due to the unpopularity of the US in Türkiye, that when Russia’s ties deteriorate with the West it is held in higher regard in Türkiye.

While low opinions of the West have persisted since the Iraq War, there are many differences between then and today that make the situation more volatile.

The US is seen as worsening Türkiye’s economic crisis by applying sanctions over a perceived lack of enthusiasm for the economic war against Russia. (Türkiye has not joined the West’s sanctions against Russia and has profited from acting as a middleman between Russia and other countries.)

But most of all, it is the fact that the US could put a stop to the daily carnage in Gaza that is widely reported across Türkiye day after day going on seven months now, and it chooses not to.

These issues helped propel the rightwing New Welfare Party (YRP) to third place in recent elections. YRP demands an end to trade with Israel and the closure of NATO’s Kürecik Radar Station in southeastern Türkiye. The YRP had also previously opposed Sweden’s NATO bid.

Erdogan is already moving towards the YRP position on trade with Israel – or at least is trying to make it appear as though he is. We’ll have to see if more is coming.

Erdogan has been playing this card of the big, bad West for years now, but he’s been in power for more than two decades. His problem is that voters believe him; they also see that not much has been done about it. And they’re increasingly starting to demand action – whether it comes through the democratic system or not.

The fact that Incirlik Air Force Base and the Kürecik Radar Station have become targets of public outrage is not a great sign for the US.

Leaders of Arab countries are getting increasingly nervous about their restive populations angry about their countries’ lack of action against Israel. US support for Israel has put a big target on US bases throughout the Arab world, and that is also the case in NATO-ally Türkiye where the ties holding Ankara and Washington together at arm’s length are increasingly fraying.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he believes he has a “great silent majority” who will vote for him during the 2024 election.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 25: Former president Donald Trump speaks to the media during a break in pre-trial hearing at Criminal Court on March 25, 2024 in New York City. Trump was charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records last year, which prosecutors say was an effort to hide a potential sex scandal, both before and after the 2016 election. Judge Juan Merchan is expected to set a new start date for the trial after it was delayed following the disclosure of new documents in the case. (Photo by Brendan McDermid-Pool/Getty Images)

While speaking to radio host Hugh Hewitt, the former president claimed that he may have the “biggest ever” silent majority, using a term that was popularized by former President Richard Nixon in 1969. He then made reference to the relatively large crowd turnout during last weekend’s rally in Wildwood, New Jersey.

“I have a great silent majority … the term was very, very powerfully associated with Nixon, and I didn’t want to be copying the term actually, so it’s the great silent majority,” President Trump said, adding that he believes that 107,000 people attended the Wildwood rally. The Epoch Times could not immediately authenticate that figure.

The former president in 2020 made similar claims about a silent majority turning out in droves for him during that year’s election. But the term was famously used by President Nixon to refer to conservative voters who did not participate in the current political discourse at the time, later resurfacing in the campaigns of former President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s.

In his interview with Mr. Hewitt, the former president said that he believes inflation may cause some voters to cast ballots in favor of him, coming after the Labor Department released figures Wednesday showing that the consumer price index slightly eased in April.

“It’s a lot of inflation when added to the inflation that we’ve suffered that’s been so bad,” President Trump said, likely referring to years of rising prices since the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic. “It’s got to come down much more. That’s a lot of inflation, their number they announced.”

The former president’s remarks on Wednesday come as a recent poll from Siena College shows that President Joe Biden is trialing the former president in five of six battleground states.

President Trump, notably, is ahead by 6 percentage points in Arizona, 11 points in Georgia, and 13 points in Nevada, the survey revealed. He’s ahead about 3 points in Pennsylvania and 1 point in Wisconsin, while is down by 1 point to President Biden in Michigan. In the 2020 election, races were called for President Biden in all of those states mentioned in the Siena College survey.

In a Wall Street Journal poll conducted in April, President Trump garnered a lead of between 2 and 8 percentage points among voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina on a ballot that included third-party and independent candidates. The results were similar in a one-on-one matchup with President Biden, it said.

The former president also was viewed as having better physical and mental fitness for the job by 48 percent of respondents, compared to 28 percent for President Biden, the poll showed.

Meanwhile, a recent Reuters-Ipsos poll showed that more Americans believe President Trump would handle the economy better than President Biden. Some 41 percent of respondents in the three-day poll said the former president has the better approach, compared to 34 percent for the current president.

Debate Announcement

On Wednesday, President Biden said in an announcement that he would agree to two debates with President Trump ahead of the 2024 election, holding one in June and another in September.

“I’ve also received and accepted an invitation to a debate hosted by ABC on Tuesday, September 10th,“ the president said on X. ”Trump says he’ll arrange his own transportation. I’ll bring my plane, too. I plan on keeping it for another four years.”

The former president wrote that he accepted his invitation.

“It is my great honor to accept the CNN Debate against Crooked Joe Biden,” President Trump said on Truth Social. “Likewise, I accept the ABC News Debate against Crooked Joe on September 10th,” he added.

In a separate post, he also pushed for a debate to be held on Fox News, which he said could take place on Oct. 2, or about a month from the election.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a third-party candidate, suggested on social media after the announcement that he might be excluded from the debate “because they are afraid I would win.”

President Trump, who did not debate his rivals during the Republican nominating race before they all dropped out, has in recent weeks been challenging President Biden to a one-on-one matchup with him, arguing that debates should be held before early voting begins in some states. He also told Mr. Hewitt the debate should be two hours long and that both men should be required to stand.

Wednesdays are a day off for President Trump during his ongoing New York trial, where he is accused of falsifying business records to cover up payments to a woman to keep silent about an alleged affair. He has denied her claims and pleaded not guilty, saying it’s an attempt to harm his 2024 presidential campaign.

The trial is expected to last about two more weeks.

Established in 1944, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) supports countries’ economic growth by providing financial aid and guidance on policies to enhance stability, productivity, and job opportunities.

Countries seek loans from the IMF to address economic crises, stabilize their currencies, implement structural reforms, and alleviate balance of payments difficulties.

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti visualizes the 10 countries most indebted to the fund.

Methodology

We compiled this ranking using the International Monetary Fund’s data on Total IMF Credit Outstanding. We selected the latest debt data for each country, accurate as of April 29, 2024.

Argentina Tops the Rank

Argentina’s debt to the IMF is equivalent to 5.3% of the country’s GDP. In total, the country owns more than $32 billion.

A G20 member and major grain exporter, the country’s history of debt trouble dates back to the late 1890s when it defaulted after contracting debts to modernize the capital, Buenos Aires. It has already been bailed out over 20 times in the last six decades by the IMF.

Five of the 10 most indebted countries are in Africa, while three are in South America.

The only European country on our list, Ukraine has relied on international support amidst the conflict with Russia. It is estimated that Russia’s full-scale invasion of the country caused the loss of a third of the country’s economy. The country owes $9 billion to the IMF.

In total, almost 100 countries owe money to the IMF, and the grand total of all of these debts is $111 billion. The above countries (top 10) account for about 69% of these debts.

By John Gallagher of FreightWaves

Cargo vessels are not equipped with backup power sufficient to avoid situations such as the one in March when the container ship Dali struck and collapsed Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge, the country’s top transportation safety investigator told lawmakers.

Testifying before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee on Wednesday, National Transportation Safety Board Chair Jennfier Homendy said the backup generator that kicked in after the Dali lost power roughly half a mile from the bridge restored emergency lighting, navigation functions, radio equipment, alarms and a steering pump that allowed for low-speed, limited rudder movements.

That wasn’t enough.

“It does not power propulsion, and without the propeller turning, the rudder was less effective — they were essentially drifting,” she told the committee.

“If you wanted to regain propulsion through any sort of emergency generator, it would literally take a six-storey generator on a vessel to do that. There is that redundancy in, say, cruise ships, but the Dali is not unlike other [cargo] vessels.”

Homendy’s testimony came a day after NTSB released a preliminary report on the March 26 accident that killed six bridge construction workers.

The report shows that the Dali experienced four total power outages — including two that occurred the day before the accident during routine maintenance being performed by the vessel’s crew while the ship was docked at the Port of Baltimore.

While recovering from the second power outage, the crews switched to a different transformer and set of circuit breakers from those that had been in use for several months. “Switching breakers is not unusual but may have affected operations the very next day on the accident voyage,” Homendy said at the hearing.

“We will continue evaluating the design and operation of the Dali’s power distribution system, including its breakers. Examination of damage to the vessel will continue when the ship is cleared of debris and moved to a shoreside facility.”

Timelines and costs

The U.S. Coast Guard and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have been able to reopen much of the channel since the accident, officials from those agencies testified at the hearing, adding that they expect the vessel to be refloated and removed from the channel as early as next week.

Shailen Bhatt, administrator of the Federal Highway Administration, confirmed to lawmakers a preliminary estimate to replace the bridge at $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion. It will take four years to construct, with completion estimated to come sometime in 2028, he said.

Bhatt was questioned by several lawmakers on the administration’s request to have 100% of the bridge’s replacement cost paid upfront through federal funds, which will require legislation approved by Congress.

He pointed out that getting the money approved upfront by Congress “removes an element of uncertainty” to insure against construction delays. In addition, a significant amount of that funding will be paid back to the government eventually through insurance payment recovery and money received through litigation proceedings from responsible parties, he said.

“But we don’t want to wait for all the litigation and NTSB investigations and insurance issues” to be resolved, he said.

Rerouting delays increase

During the hearing, Congresswoman Eleanor Holmes Norton, Washington’s nonvoting delegate in the House, sought comment from Bhatt on federal data showing that traffic crashes rose 29% on alternative routes in the weeks following the Key Bridge collapse.

“The same data show that it now takes between two and four times longer for drivers to travel those alternative routes,” she said. “That traffic means trucks are delayed in reaching their destinations, commuters are late getting to their jobs or home to their families, and there is more air pollution and wasted fuel.”

Bhatt noted that when significant highway capacity is lost, traffic adjusts and levels out. However, “that’s not happening in Baltimore to the same extent, and I think it’s because of just the criticality of this artery,” he said.

“It’s important for Maryland and Baltimore, but it’s also important for the Northeast Corridor. So yes there are trucks and vehicles moving through neighborhoods that normally they would not, and that’s why it’s important that we move with as much speed as possible” to rebuild the bridge.

Bhatt told lawmakers he would look into potential long-term relief, including hours-of-service waivers, for truck drivers affected by the delays.

Bridge assessments recommended

As part of its investigation, NTSB is looking at other areas in the U.S. where bridges have been improved following vessel strikes. Depending on the information collected, the agency could issue an urgent safety recommendation even before a final report is issued in the Dali accident, which could take up to 18 months.

“The key is, you have here a bridge that was opened in 1977. It’s not the bridge that’s getting larger, it’s not the waterway that’s getting larger, it’s the vessels that are getting larger — both width and height. So it’s important that states and other bridge owners look at, from a risk assessment standpoint, what type of vessel traffic is going through, and how is the bridge protected.”

Another week, another mid-air mishap for a Boeing plane. This time, a 747-400 carrying 468 passengers from Indonesia to Saudi Arabia had to make an emergency landing immediately after takeoff when one of the plane's four engines erupted in a fireball.

"The decision was made by the pilot in command immediately after takeoff, considering engine problems that required further examination after sparks of fire were observed in one of the engines," Garuda Indonesia president director Irfan Setiaputra wrote in a statement obtained by the local media outlet The Jakarta Post. 

Garuda-1105 flight to Madinah, a city in western Saudi Arabia, was departing from the Indonesian city of Makassar on Wednesday when, as soon as the plane achieved rotation speed and lifted off the runway, a giant fireball erupted from one of the plane's engines. 

Garuda Indonesia 747-412 returns safely to Makassar Airport in Indonesia after an engine failure during takeoff. pic.twitter.com/VibKqCQosc

Here's what happened last week with Boeing mishaps:

May 8:

• Boeing 767 Cargo Plane Crash-Landed In Turkey

May 9:

• Boeing 737 Crashes After Failed Takeoff At African Airport

May 10: 

• United Airlines Boeing 737 Makes Emergency Return To Japanese Airport After Wing Flap "Irregularity"

If you want to avoid flying in Boeing's "death traps," use this plane ticket booking search feature for Airbus "only" before your next trip.   

Authored by David Williams via RealClearEnergy,

Electric vehicles (EVs) may be the most subsidized product in America. Federal taxpayers shell out $7,500 every time a new eligible electric vehicle is purchased (usually by wealthy buyers). State and local taxpayers chip in an additional $1,500 for each EV purchase. Then, there’s the tens of billions of dollars “invested” by policymakers into building EV plants. Even these bank-breaking concessions aren’t enough to please the Biden administration. Recently finalized EV tax credit rules expand eligibility for the subsidy while maintaining bizarre trade sourcing rules likely to lead to further tariffs from China. It’s time for President Biden and lawmakers to ditch protectionism and finally end EV subsidies. 

From the start, President Biden’s fumbling approach to EV subsidies has harmed the economy without bolstering ecology. In 2022, the chief executive declared, “[t]hanks to American ingenuity, American engineers, American autoworkers… if you want an electric vehicle with a long range, you can buy one made in America.” Prices were already through the roof, with taxpayers being asked to shoulder these pricy purchases. Kelley Blue Book estimates that the average price of a new EV is more than $65,000, compared to $48,000 for gas-powered cars. Biden imposed requirements that EVs must undergo “final assembly in North America,” contributing to even higher prices for taxpayers and consumers. 

Biden’s rules make production cost-prohibitive by restricting the foreign mineral inputs (e.g., graphite) that could go into tax credit-eligible EVs. The administration has since reversed course and allowed for a grace period for graphite sourcing. However, the new rules, “introduce a stricter test for measuring whether 50% of the vehicle’s critical minerals come from the United States or a free trade agreement partner...[requiring] automakers to more precisely account for the value added at each step of the supply chain.” The net effect of all these confusing new rules is to expand the number of vehicles eligible for EV tax credits, while increasing compliance costs. And, of course, this cost will be passed onto taxpayers and consumers. 

Instead of tethering absurd rules to a complex and costly program, the Biden administration should start from scratch and axe the tax credit. EV subsidies are showered onto the wealthiest Americans at the expense of their poorer neighbors. According to a 2023 analysis of California EV purchase patterns by the news outlet CalMatters, “Most of the median household incomes in the top 10 [zip codes with the highest share of EVs] exceed $200,000, much higher than the statewide $84,097. Typical home values in those communities exceed $3 million, according to Zillow estimates.” In comparison, “electric cars are nearly non-existent in California’s lowest income communities: only 1.4% of cars in Stockton’s 95202, where the median household income is $16,976, and 0.5% in Fresno’s 93701, where the median is $25,905. Most are plug-in hybrids, which are less expensive.” This study’s findings are consistent with earlier, multi-state surveys. A 2018 study by Dr. Wayne Winegarden of the Pacific Research Institute found, “79% of electric vehicle plug-in tax credits were claimed by households with adjusted gross incomes of greater than $100,000 per year. Households with incomes greater than $50,000 per year claimed 99% of the credits.” 

This stunning regressivity ensures that subsidies are a net-negative for ecology. Wealthy Americans primarily purchaseEVs as secondary cars, keeping them in the garage for occasional outings. EV owners are largely still using conventional cars, and there’s less-than-hoped-for substitution between gasoline and electricity. As a result, extra pollution is generated via increased EV production without corresponding decreases in driving emissions. One 2022 Harvard study suggests, “foregoing gasoline in favor of volts may actually increase, not lower, overall emissions in some cases.” This is far from the outcome envisioned by “green” activists and policymakers. 

The Biden administration and lawmakers ought to seriously rethink adding more fuel to the dumpster fire of EV subsidies. Struggling Americans shouldn’t be forced to foot the bill for these over-hyped toys for tycoons.

David Williams is the president of the Taxpayers Protection Alliance. 

Commodity trader Pierre Andurand appeared on Bloomberg's Odd Lots to discuss his bullish bet on cocoa markets and the future direction of physical markets amid severe droughts plaguing vast farmlands in West Africa. He's still bullish on cocoa prices, with an upside price target of $20,000 a ton later this year or next because continued droughts will spark a "massive supply shortage this year." 

Andurand's discussion with Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal comes after cocoa prices had two of the largest single daily declines ever in recent weeks as liquidity evaporated from the market. 

• Cocoa Crash Unfolds As "Liquidity Evaporates"
• Cocoa Market Hit With Second Crash In Weeks As Liquidity Evaporates

And Rabobank analyst Paul Joules told clients the bull rally has likely peaked. 

• After Cocoa Crash, Rabobank Says Bull Rally Likely Peaked

However, Andurand, founder of Andurand Capital Management LLP, known for his oil and energy trades, told the Odd Lots hosts that his bullish cocoa bets from March paid off when prices skyrocketed north of $12,000. He believes there is potential for further upside as extreme global deficits of the bean loom. 

"Basically, we have a massive supply shortage this year. I mean, we see production down 17% relative to last year. Most analysts out there have it down 11%, but that's because they tend to be very conservative. You know, they have lots of clients and they don't want to to worry the world, so they come with relatively conservative estimates," he explained, adding, "We're in a situation where we might actually run out of inventories completely."

Andurand continued, "This year we think we will end up with a with an inventory-to-grinding ratio — so inventory at the end of the season — of 21%." 

"For the last 10 years, we've been between 35% and 40%. Roughly at the previous peak in 1977, we were at 19%," he said.

The International Cocoa Organization tracks inventories of unprocessed cocoa, which can serve as a cushion when there's a shortfall in supply. However, the lower the inventory-to-grinding ratio drops, the less of a buffer there is. When the stock-to-grinding ratio crashed in 1977, cocoa prices soared to $5,500, or on an inflation-adjusted basis today, $28,000. 

Andurand warned the ratio could collapse to as low as 13%, adding, "That's when you really have a real shortage of cocoa beans. You can't get it. And that's when the price can really explode."