Distinction Matter - Subscribed Feeds

  1. Site: LifeNews
    2 days 15 hours ago
    Author: Steven Ertelt

    Kansas Democrat Gov Laura Kelly claims she’s pro-choice on abortion, but she just vetoed a bill to help women with the choice of adoption instead of abortion.

    Kelly line-item vetoed the proposed “Pregnancy Compassion Awareness Program,” which would renew allocation of $2 million in grant funding to provide and enhance resources for women who want to make the choice to parent or place their child for adoption. The line-item veto confirms that Kelly specifically targeted the program for elimination.

    That makes it clear Governor Kelly isn’t just pro-choice, she is certifiably pro-abortion.

    “Four times this legislative session, Gov. Coercion Kelly has proved her abortion extremism,” said Jeanne Gawdun, Kansans for Life Director of Government Relations, in an email to LifeNews.

    “First, she vetoed protections for women who are coerced into abortions and shot down transparency in state statistics reporting; then she blocked financial relief to families hoping to adopt. Now she wants to remove resources for women facing unexpected pregnancies. It’s clear the only ‘choice’ the Kelly/Toland Administration supports is abortion.”

    Kansans for Life urges legislators to stand with Kansas women and families by overriding Gov. Kelly’s extreme, out-of-touch, veto.

    As LifeNews.com reported last week, Kelly’s abortion extremism was on full display  as she vetoed life-affirming tax policies in House Bill 2465. That’s legislation that, had she signed it, would have promoted adoption in Kansas. The Democrat governor used her veto pen to block existing resources giving financial relief to families longing to adopt children and support to organizations that assist moms who want to choose life for their babies.

    HB 2465 would establish adoption savings accounts and increase tax credits for adoptive families, eliminate the sales tax burden for pregnancy resource centers, and create tax credits for donors to those organizations.

    Instead, Governor Kelly made it more financially difficult for families to provide loving homes for adoptive children.

    ACTION ALERT: Contact Governor Laura Kelly to complain.

    The post Kansas Gov Laura Kelly Vetoes Bill to Help Pregnant Women Choose Adoption appeared first on LifeNews.com.

  2. Site: RT - News
    2 days 15 hours ago
    Author: RT

    The values system dominating the West has “brought chaos,” the Hungarian prime minister believes

    Western liberal hegemony has failed and must be destroyed, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated on Thursday, suggesting it could end as soon as this year.

    Addressing the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC Hungary) in Budapest, Orban criticized the existing “world order based on progressive liberal hegemony,” saying it has spawned numerous figureheads who are “not fit to be leaders,” with even “beauty pageants” knowing more about peace then they do.

    He accused liberal politicians of building “hegemonic ideological control to which everyone must submit” instead of actual governing, while turning “state bodies into tools of oppression.” Such forces are a dangerous enemy whose time is coming to an end, Orban claimed.

    “The progressive liberals sense the danger, the end of this era also means their end,” the prime minister argued. Their dominance could be overcome as soon as this year, Orban predicted, citing the upcoming EU Parliament and US presidential elections. 

    “The proponents of the old world are sitting in Brussels, and although it is not my business to interfere in American politics, I fear that they are also sitting in Washington. This is what we are doing this year. This year, we will try to drive them out,” the Hungarian prime minister said.

    This year, God willing, we can end the inglorious era of the Western civilization. We can end the world order built on progressive liberal hegemony. The progressive liberal world spirit has failed. It gave the world war, chaos, unrest and destroyed economies.

    The emerging world order will be based on true sovereignty, with countries driven by their actual national interests rather than a global ideology, according to Orban.

    READ MORE: EU leadership must go – member state’s PM

    “Let the era of sovereignty come, let’s get back towards peace and security. Let’s make America great again, let’s make Europe great again,” he concluded.

  3. Site: RT - News
    2 days 15 hours ago
    Author: RT

    The values system dominating the West has “brought chaos,” the Hungarian prime minister believes

    Western liberal hegemony has failed and must be destroyed, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated on Thursday, suggesting it could end as soon as this year.

    Addressing the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC Hungary) in Budapest, Orban criticized the existing “world order based on progressive liberal hegemony,” saying it has spawned numerous figureheads who are “not fit to be leaders,” with even “beauty pageants” knowing more about peace then they do.

    He accused liberal politicians of building “hegemonic ideological control to which everyone must submit” instead of actual governing, while turning “state bodies into tools of oppression.” Such forces are a dangerous enemy whose time is coming to an end, Orban claimed.

    “The progressive liberals sense the danger, the end of this era also means their end,” the prime minister argued. Their dominance could be overcome as soon as this year, Orban predicted, citing the upcoming EU Parliament and US presidential elections. 

    “The proponents of the old world are sitting in Brussels, and although it is not my business to interfere in American politics, I fear that they are also sitting in Washington. This is what we are doing this year. This year, we will try to drive them out,” the Hungarian prime minister said.

    This year, God willing, we can end the inglorious era of the Western civilization. We can end the world order built on progressive liberal hegemony. The progressive liberal world spirit has failed. It gave the world war, chaos, unrest and destroyed economies.

    The emerging world order will be based on true sovereignty, with countries driven by their actual national interests rather than a global ideology, according to Orban.

    READ MORE: EU leadership must go – member state’s PM

    “Let the era of sovereignty come, let’s get back towards peace and security. Let’s make America great again, let’s make Europe great again,” he concluded.

  4. Site: RT - News
    2 days 15 hours ago
    Author: RT

    The values system dominating the West has “brought chaos,” the Hungarian prime minister believes

    Western liberal hegemony has failed and must be destroyed, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated on Thursday, suggesting it could end as soon as this year.

    Addressing the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC Hungary) in Budapest, Orban criticized the existing “world order based on progressive liberal hegemony,” saying it has spawned numerous figureheads who are “not fit to be leaders,” with even “beauty pageants” knowing more about peace then they do.

    He accused liberal politicians of building “hegemonic ideological control to which everyone must submit” instead of actual governing, while turning “state bodies into tools of oppression.” Such forces are a dangerous enemy whose time is coming to an end, Orban claimed.

    “The progressive liberals sense the danger, the end of this era also means their end,” the prime minister argued. Their dominance could be overcome as soon as this year, Orban predicted, citing the upcoming EU Parliament and US presidential elections. 

    “The proponents of the old world are sitting in Brussels, and although it is not my business to interfere in American politics, I fear that they are also sitting in Washington. This is what we are doing this year. This year, we will try to drive them out,” the Hungarian prime minister said.

    This year, God willing, we can end the inglorious era of the Western civilization. We can end the world order built on progressive liberal hegemony. The progressive liberal world spirit has failed. It gave the world war, chaos, unrest and destroyed economies.

    The emerging world order will be based on true sovereignty, with countries driven by their actual national interests rather than a global ideology, according to Orban.

    READ MORE: EU leadership must go – member state’s PM

    “Let the era of sovereignty come, let’s get back towards peace and security. Let’s make America great again, let’s make Europe great again,” he concluded.

  5. Site: Zero Hedge
    2 days 15 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Stagflation Shock: GDP Stuns With Lowest Print In 2 Years, Below Lowest Estimates, As PCE Comes In Red Hot

    If the Biden admin was to have any hopes of the Fed cutting rates and monetary easing ahead of the election, the tires would need to start falling off the US economy right... about... now... Which is why we didn't find it at all surprising that moments ago the Biden Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that in Q1, US GDP unexpectedly collapsed to just 1.6%, down more than 50% from the Q4 print of 3.4%, the lowest print since Q2 2022 when the US underwent a brief technical recession (one which the NBER never admitted of course), and a huge miss to the 2.5% estimate.

    Almost as if on purpose, the GDP printed below the lowest estimate (that of SMBC Nikko) which was at 1.7% (the highest forecast was 3.1% from Goldman Sachs which was off by the usual 50%), and was a 3-sigma miss to the median estimate of 2.5%.

    But while a collapse in the US economy is just what the "soft landers" wanted, the huge GDP miss was just half the story because at the same time, the BEA reported that the GDP Deflator (price index) came in at 3.1%, hotter than the 3.0% expected and almost double the 1.6% in Q4. Worse, the all important core PCE for Q1 soared from 2.0% to 3.7%, blowing away estimates of 3.4% (we will get a more accurate core PCE print tomorrow for the month of March) and suggesting that the US is about to not only not pass go, and overshoot soft-landing island completely, but crash-land straight into a stagflationary recession...

    ... unless the Fed does something, although what it can do - with inflation rising and growth slowing - is anyone's guess.

    Taking a closer look at the absolute data, the BEA said that the increase in the first quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and housing investment that were partly offset by a decrease in inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

    • The increase in consumer spending reflected an increase in services that was partly offset by a decrease in goods. Within services, the leading contributors to the increase were health care as well as financial services and insurance. Within goods, the leading contributors to the decrease were motor vehicles and parts as well as gasoline and other energy goods.
    • The increase in housing investment was led by brokers’ commissions and other ownership transfer costs as well as new single-family housing construction.
    • The decrease in inventory investment was led by decreases in wholesale trade and manufacturing.  

    Compared to Q4, the deceleration in GDP in Q1 reflected decelerations in consumer spending, exports, and state and local government spending and a downturn in federal government spending. These movements were partly offset by an acceleration in housing investment. Imports accelerated.

    Digger deeper into the data, we find that it was once again the slowdown in consumption that was the biggest culprit, with Personal Consumption rising 2.5%, a big drop from the 3.3% in Q4 and below the 3.0% expected. Taking a step back we find that consumption has now missed on 6 of the past 10 prints.

    As discussed extensively here, while the consumption missed, it was still positive, and reflects the latest drop in the savings rate, to 3.6% in the first quarter from 4% in the fourth quarter of last year, as consumers continue to drain their bank accounts and max out their credit cards. Economists have been wondering how long that can go on, but so far it shows no signs of abating. The (until recently) relentless rise in equity prices may be playing a role here.

    In terms of actual components we find the following picture:

    • Personal Consumption added 1.68% to the bottom line GDP print, or more than 100% of it. This was down notably from 2.20% in Q4.
    • Fixed Investment rose modestly, to 0.91% of the bottom line contribution, up from 0.61% in Q4.
    • The Change in Private inventories continued to detract from GDP for the 2nd quarter in a row, reducing the bottom line GDP print by 0.35%, a modest improvement from the -0.47% in Q4.
    • Net trade was a big delta, and after contributing 0.25% to the Q4 3.4% GDP print, in Q1 it subtracted 0.86% from the actual print.
    • Finally, government continues to be a contribution but in Q1 it added just 0.21%, a big drop from the 0.79% in Q4 and the lowest since Q2 2022 when it reduced GDP by 0.29%.

    And visually:

    That was the GDP side of things, what about the inflation/PCE? Well, this is where things get really bad, because after PCE came in hot in Q4, it came in even hotter in Q4, as GDP prices, the prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents, increased 3.1% in Q1 after increasing 1.9%, and above the 3.0% estimate. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 3.2% after increasing 2.1%.

    Turning to the all important PCE, Personal consumption expenditures prices increased 3.4% in the first quarter after increasing 1.8% in the fourth quarter. And the punchline: excluding food and energy, the all important core PCE price index increased 3.7% after increasing 2.0%, and coming far hotter than the 3.4% estimate; in fact it came in above the highest estimate!

    This, according to Fed-whisperer Nick Timiraos, implies that the March core PCE number which is reported tomorrow, must be higher than +0.22, closer to +0.3% (which is precisely where the estimate is), and would imply upside revisions to Jan and Feb.

    Commenting on the report, Fitch economist Olu Sonola writes that "the hot inflation print is the real story in this report. If growth continues to slowly decelerate, but inflation strongly takes off again in the wrong direction, the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in 2024 is starting to look increasingly more out of reach."

    The bottom line: while a sharp slowdown in growth would have been just the "bad news is good news" the market was desperately hoping for, throw in the unexpected surge in prices and suddenly the threat of a full-blown stagflationary shock is once again front and center... at least until tomorrow, when we wouldn't put it past this admin to come out with another fabricated core PCE print which makes no sense and somehow comes in well below the 0.3% MoM estimate.

    Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 11:51
  6. Site: Zero Hedge
    2 days 15 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Stagflation Shock: GDP Stuns With Lowest Print In 2 Years, Below Lowest Estimates, As PCE Comes In Red Hot

    If the Biden admin was to have any hopes of the Fed cutting rates and monetary easing ahead of the election, the tires would need to start falling off the US economy right... about... now... Which is why we didn't find it at all surprising that moments ago the Biden Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that in Q1, US GDP unexpectedly collapsed to just 1.6%, down more than 50% from the Q4 print of 3.4%, the lowest print since Q2 2022 when the US underwent a brief technical recession (one which the NBER never admitted of course), and a huge miss to the 2.5% estimate.

    Almost as if on purpose, the GDP printed below the lowest estimate (that of SMBC Nikko) which was at 1.7% (the highest forecast was 3.1% from Goldman Sachs which was off by the usual 50%), and was a 3-sigma miss to the median estimate of 2.5%.

    But while a collapse in the US economy is just what the "soft landers" wanted, the huge GDP miss was just half the story because at the same time, the BEA reported that the GDP Deflator (price index) came in at 3.1%, hotter than the 3.0% expected and almost double the 1.6% in Q4. Worse, the all important core PCE for Q1 soared from 2.0% to 3.7%, blowing away estimates of 3.4% (we will get a more accurate core PCE print tomorrow for the month of March) and suggesting that the US is about to not only not pass go, and overshoot soft-landing island completely, but crash-land straight into a stagflationary recession...

    ... unless the Fed does something, although what it can do - with inflation rising and growth slowing - is anyone's guess.

    Taking a closer look at the absolute data, the BEA said that the increase in the first quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and housing investment that were partly offset by a decrease in inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

    • The increase in consumer spending reflected an increase in services that was partly offset by a decrease in goods. Within services, the leading contributors to the increase were health care as well as financial services and insurance. Within goods, the leading contributors to the decrease were motor vehicles and parts as well as gasoline and other energy goods.
    • The increase in housing investment was led by brokers’ commissions and other ownership transfer costs as well as new single-family housing construction.
    • The decrease in inventory investment was led by decreases in wholesale trade and manufacturing.  

    Compared to Q4, the deceleration in GDP in Q1 reflected decelerations in consumer spending, exports, and state and local government spending and a downturn in federal government spending. These movements were partly offset by an acceleration in housing investment. Imports accelerated.

    Digger deeper into the data, we find that it was once again the slowdown in consumption that was the biggest culprit, with Personal Consumption rising 2.5%, a big drop from the 3.3% in Q4 and below the 3.0% expected. Taking a step back we find that consumption has now missed on 6 of the past 10 prints.

    As discussed extensively here, while the consumption missed, it was still positive, and reflects the latest drop in the savings rate, to 3.6% in the first quarter from 4% in the fourth quarter of last year, as consumers continue to drain their bank accounts and max out their credit cards. Economists have been wondering how long that can go on, but so far it shows no signs of abating. The (until recently) relentless rise in equity prices may be playing a role here.

    In terms of actual components we find the following picture:

    • Personal Consumption added 1.68% to the bottom line GDP print, or more than 100% of it. This was down notably from 2.20% in Q4.
    • Fixed Investment rose modestly, to 0.91% of the bottom line contribution, up from 0.61% in Q4.
    • The Change in Private inventories continued to detract from GDP for the 2nd quarter in a row, reducing the bottom line GDP print by 0.35%, a modest improvement from the -0.47% in Q4.
    • Net trade was a big delta, and after contributing 0.25% to the Q4 3.4% GDP print, in Q1 it subtracted 0.86% from the actual print.
    • Finally, government continues to be a contribution but in Q1 it added just 0.21%, a big drop from the 0.79% in Q4 and the lowest since Q2 2022 when it reduced GDP by 0.29%.

    And visually:

    That was the GDP side of things, what about the inflation/PCE? Well, this is where things get really bad, because after PCE came in hot in Q4, it came in even hotter in Q4, as GDP prices, the prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents, increased 3.1% in Q1 after increasing 1.9%, and above the 3.0% estimate. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 3.2% after increasing 2.1%.

    Turning to the all important PCE, Personal consumption expenditures prices increased 3.4% in the first quarter after increasing 1.8% in the fourth quarter. And the punchline: excluding food and energy, the all important core PCE price index increased 3.7% after increasing 2.0%, and coming far hotter than the 3.4% estimate; in fact it came in above the highest estimate!

    This, according to Fed-whisperer Nick Timiraos, implies that the March core PCE number which is reported tomorrow, must be higher than +0.22, closer to +0.3% (which is precisely where the estimate is), and would imply upside revisions to Jan and Feb.

    Commenting on the report, Fitch economist Olu Sonola writes that "the hot inflation print is the real story in this report. If growth continues to slowly decelerate, but inflation strongly takes off again in the wrong direction, the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in 2024 is starting to look increasingly more out of reach."

    The bottom line: while a sharp slowdown in growth would have been just the "bad news is good news" the market was desperately hoping for, throw in the unexpected surge in prices and suddenly the threat of a full-blown stagflationary shock is once again front and center... at least until tomorrow, when we wouldn't put it past this admin to come out with another fabricated core PCE print which makes no sense and somehow comes in well below the 0.3% MoM estimate.

    Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 11:51
  7. Site: RT - News
    2 days 15 hours ago
    Author: RT

    Beijing has accused Washington of undermining peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region

    Beijing has condemned Washington’s deployment of intermediate-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific region and will take all effective measures to prevent the US from “messing up” the South China Sea, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian said on Thursday.

    His comments come after the US kicked off its largest joint exercise with the Philippines since the Cold War in the South China Sea earlier this week. The exercise, dubbed Balikatan, is set to run through May 10 and is said to involve over 11,000 US soldiers and 5,000 Philippine servicemen. A French frigate as well as troops from France and Australia are also participating in the event.

    Earlier this month, the US also held a separate two-week round of exercises with the Philippines dubbed Salaknib 2024, during which it deployed SM-6 missiles capable of reaching Taiwan. The weapon has a maximum range of more than 400km while a new medium-range MRC Typhon land missile system is capable of launching from the Philippines island of Luzon. 

    Asked to comment on the move, Wu stated that Beijing “firmly opposes” the deployment of such weapons by the US in the Asia-Pacific and stressed that such an action by Washington “severely threatens the security of regional countries and undermines regional peace and stability. China will take resolute countermeasures.”

    “We hope the relevant country could refrain from opening the door to the devil, which will only end up hurting everyone, including itself,” the spokesman said.

    Wu stated that China sees the strengthening diplomatic relations between the US and the Philippines as the two countries’ business. However, he stressed that such relations must not harm China’s, or any other country’s interests, and must not undermine peace and stability in the region.

    Read more A US-made Typhoon Mid-Range Capability (MRC) missile system being unloaded from a cargo plane. Russia responds to new US missile deployment in Asia

    China's military will continue to pay close attention to the situation in the region and will take “all effective measures to respond effectively and will never allow relevant parties to mess up the South China Sea,” Wu added. 

    Russia’s ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov said earlier that the Pentagon’s deployment of medium-range missiles in the Philippines would constitute a “dark day” for international security and accused Washington of deliberately escalating military confrontation, fueling hotbeds of tension and creating closed groups and military-political alliances in the region.

    “[The US] is trying to return the world to the worst times of the Cold War and teetering on the edge of a nuclear conflict,” Antonov said earlier this month, urging Washington not to open this “Pandora’s box.”

  8. Site: RT - News
    2 days 15 hours ago
    Author: RT

    Beijing has accused Washington of undermining peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region

    Beijing has condemned Washington’s deployment of intermediate-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific region and will take all effective measures to prevent the US from “messing up” the South China Sea, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian said on Thursday.

    His comments come after the US kicked off its largest joint exercise with the Philippines since the Cold War in the South China Sea earlier this week. The exercise, dubbed Balikatan, is set to run through May 10 and is said to involve over 11,000 US soldiers and 5,000 Philippine servicemen. A French frigate as well as troops from France and Australia are also participating in the event.

    Earlier this month, the US also held a separate two-week round of exercises with the Philippines dubbed Salaknib 2024, during which it deployed SM-6 missiles capable of reaching Taiwan. The weapon has a maximum range of more than 400km while a new medium-range MRC Typhon land missile system is capable of launching from the Philippines island of Luzon. 

    Asked to comment on the move, Wu stated that Beijing “firmly opposes” the deployment of such weapons by the US in the Asia-Pacific and stressed that such an action by Washington “severely threatens the security of regional countries and undermines regional peace and stability. China will take resolute countermeasures.”

    “We hope the relevant country could refrain from opening the door to the devil, which will only end up hurting everyone, including itself,” the spokesman said.

    Wu stated that China sees the strengthening diplomatic relations between the US and the Philippines as the two countries’ business. However, he stressed that such relations must not harm China’s, or any other country’s interests, and must not undermine peace and stability in the region.

    Read more A US-made Typhoon Mid-Range Capability (MRC) missile system being unloaded from a cargo plane. Russia responds to new US missile deployment in Asia

    China's military will continue to pay close attention to the situation in the region and will take “all effective measures to respond effectively and will never allow relevant parties to mess up the South China Sea,” Wu added. 

    Russia’s ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov said earlier that the Pentagon’s deployment of medium-range missiles in the Philippines would constitute a “dark day” for international security and accused Washington of deliberately escalating military confrontation, fueling hotbeds of tension and creating closed groups and military-political alliances in the region.

    “[The US] is trying to return the world to the worst times of the Cold War and teetering on the edge of a nuclear conflict,” Antonov said earlier this month, urging Washington not to open this “Pandora’s box.”

  9. Site: Zero Hedge
    2 days 15 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Is Dune A Replica Of Our Real World

    By Michael Every of Rabobank

    The Golden Path

    USD/JPY is at 155, a fresh 34-year high, with the Yen slumping 10.2% year-to-date and suggestion that intervention may not come until we get to 160, a level last seen in 1986. USD/CAD is off recent lows at 1.37 but under pressure (as noted by Christian Lawrence): some suggest the Loonie could fall as far as 2 (so CAD/USD at 0.5) a decade from now. So, a higher US dollar. Which FX dominoes haven’t fallen yet, and when might they?

    Australian CPI data suggest it will be hard to cut rates in 2024, as the median Sydney house price moves up to A$1.6m with them at 4.35%. Mexican CPI surprised to the upside, also suggesting further rate cuts may not roll out as had been priced in. Bank Indonesia shocked markets with a 25bp rate hike to 6.25% to try to relieve downwards pressure on IDR. So, what looks like higher rates for longer than had been expected. What breaks where, and when?

    Geopolitical tensions will also be higher for longer. Europe made a dawn raid on a Chinese firm as Politico says: ‘EU to China: Open your public markets or we’ll close ours’. US Secretary of State Blinken is in Beijing against headlines warning of US sanctions on Chinese banks for helping Russia. President Biden signed the TikTok divest-or-ban bill, which Bloomberg warns will see China target US firms in kind. US military aid is already flowing to Taiwan, Ukraine, and Israel: the US is planning to convert old Pacific oil platforms to military bases; Ukraine was striking Russian energy targets even before it got access to new, longer-range US missiles; and Israel is closer to moving against Hamas in Rafah and Hezbollah in Lebanon, if not Iran (for now). The New Statesman echoes warnings made here since the mid-2010s: The age of danger: order is breaking down as the great powers take sides in multiple wars’.

    Economic policy also continues to get more populist: although it has no chance of happening, President Biden has proposed a 44.6% capital gains tax, the highest in US history, and a 25% tax on unrealized gains by high net-worth individuals. More realistic, perhaps, France’s opposition has proposed financing the country’s green transition with entirely with QE.

    Let’s be frank, it’s hard to see a ‘Golden Path’ for markets ahead. It’s even harder to see ‘The Golden Path’ - a global economic system that allows maximum market/personal freedoms, yet with minimal inequality both domestically and internationally, and so socioeconomic and geopolitical stability. Yet absent that Path, we end up Hamiltonianism or mercantilism, economic war, real war, and a Great-Power-struggle ‘age of danger’.

    Bloomberg just made reference to this (‘Geostrategy Industrial Complex Is a Win-Win’) vis-à-vis the real economy, noting corporate and foreign policy elites are talking more to each other, “which is good for both sides”. Yet financial markets continue to ignore foreign policy elites! Where are the macro forecasts adjusted for a world of Great Power struggles? Most still look remarkably similar to ones without that backdrop. (By contrast, note our ‘geopolitical’ work on Europe’s growth and inflation.) Where are the FX, rates, equity, credit, commodity, and property scenarios for a world of Great Power struggles? Again, most still look remarkably similar to ones without that backdrop – correct me if I am wrong, but it seems only our Fed watcher Philip Marey is predicting Trump tariffs would be a roadblock to ongoing Fed cuts in 2025.

    Let’s be Frank Herbert.

    Bloomberg also praises Hollywood’s ‘Dune 2’ for predicting the future better than Fukuyama for its old-and-new high-tech, feuding Great Houses struggling for control of the Spice without which the economy can’t function, as religion sweeps people to violent jihad. That comparison is true, but there is a deeper parallel to our present situation. Those who have read the Dune series repeatedly know all that backdrop supports two central overarching themes:

    • First: “Don’t follow charismatic leaders.” Paul Atreides is no hero: he is directly responsible for the deaths of 61 billion people.

    • Second: “The Golden Path.” Paul doesn’t have the stomach to follow through on what he needs to do for mankind, but his son, Leto II, does. **SPOILER ALERT** He fuses himself with a sandworm to become a dictator for 3,500 years, destroying Spice, space travel, and the economy, to teach people “a lesson they will remember in their bones”: that once they can break free of his reign, which he eventually allows, they should become as diverse and far-flung as possible to never allow anyone or anything to threaten them in their entirety again.

    The conflict between humanity's stated desire for peace and their actual need for volatility is the central message of the Dune series.

    We built a centralised neoliberal global system that repressed volatility as QE Spice flowed. But while Great Houses thrived, and some got very rich selling shadow-bank Spice derivatives, that system only increased, not decreased, our fundamental vulnerabilities to key threats. Returning to a world of Great Power struggles may ironically create healthier economic systems and societies over time, in some respects.

    True, that likely won’t allow such free markets. But while we need some volatility to get stronger --think of Taleb’s anti-fragility-- we don’t need other kinds, like a sandworm swallowing us whole (or the financial market equivalent as past vol-repression has to be unwound), or people launching jihads at home or abroad. Which there is rather too much of right now.

    So, Trump fusing with a sandworm may teach us all a geopolitical lesson “in our bones”: does his orange skin reflect excess McMelange consumption even if his eyes aren’t blue-in-blue?

    Back to markets: the God Emperor of Dune, Leto II, maintains a complete monopoly on melange, the real currency in the universe; but apart from that, the books don’t say much about rates or FX. I’m just not sure what the Golden Level of rates is on our Golden Path. Then again, neither do central banks. And financial markets mostly have their heads deep in the sand.

    Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 11:45
  10. Site: Zero Hedge
    2 days 15 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Is Dune A Replica Of Our Real World

    By Michael Every of Rabobank

    The Golden Path

    USD/JPY is at 155, a fresh 34-year high, with the Yen slumping 10.2% year-to-date and suggestion that intervention may not come until we get to 160, a level last seen in 1986. USD/CAD is off recent lows at 1.37 but under pressure (as noted by Christian Lawrence): some suggest the Loonie could fall as far as 2 (so CAD/USD at 0.5) a decade from now. So, a higher US dollar. Which FX dominoes haven’t fallen yet, and when might they?

    Australian CPI data suggest it will be hard to cut rates in 2024, as the median Sydney house price moves up to A$1.6m with them at 4.35%. Mexican CPI surprised to the upside, also suggesting further rate cuts may not roll out as had been priced in. Bank Indonesia shocked markets with a 25bp rate hike to 6.25% to try to relieve downwards pressure on IDR. So, what looks like higher rates for longer than had been expected. What breaks where, and when?

    Geopolitical tensions will also be higher for longer. Europe made a dawn raid on a Chinese firm as Politico says: ‘EU to China: Open your public markets or we’ll close ours’. US Secretary of State Blinken is in Beijing against headlines warning of US sanctions on Chinese banks for helping Russia. President Biden signed the TikTok divest-or-ban bill, which Bloomberg warns will see China target US firms in kind. US military aid is already flowing to Taiwan, Ukraine, and Israel: the US is planning to convert old Pacific oil platforms to military bases; Ukraine was striking Russian energy targets even before it got access to new, longer-range US missiles; and Israel is closer to moving against Hamas in Rafah and Hezbollah in Lebanon, if not Iran (for now). The New Statesman echoes warnings made here since the mid-2010s: The age of danger: order is breaking down as the great powers take sides in multiple wars’.

    Economic policy also continues to get more populist: although it has no chance of happening, President Biden has proposed a 44.6% capital gains tax, the highest in US history, and a 25% tax on unrealized gains by high net-worth individuals. More realistic, perhaps, France’s opposition has proposed financing the country’s green transition with entirely with QE.

    Let’s be frank, it’s hard to see a ‘Golden Path’ for markets ahead. It’s even harder to see ‘The Golden Path’ - a global economic system that allows maximum market/personal freedoms, yet with minimal inequality both domestically and internationally, and so socioeconomic and geopolitical stability. Yet absent that Path, we end up Hamiltonianism or mercantilism, economic war, real war, and a Great-Power-struggle ‘age of danger’.

    Bloomberg just made reference to this (‘Geostrategy Industrial Complex Is a Win-Win’) vis-à-vis the real economy, noting corporate and foreign policy elites are talking more to each other, “which is good for both sides”. Yet financial markets continue to ignore foreign policy elites! Where are the macro forecasts adjusted for a world of Great Power struggles? Most still look remarkably similar to ones without that backdrop. (By contrast, note our ‘geopolitical’ work on Europe’s growth and inflation.) Where are the FX, rates, equity, credit, commodity, and property scenarios for a world of Great Power struggles? Again, most still look remarkably similar to ones without that backdrop – correct me if I am wrong, but it seems only our Fed watcher Philip Marey is predicting Trump tariffs would be a roadblock to ongoing Fed cuts in 2025.

    Let’s be Frank Herbert.

    Bloomberg also praises Hollywood’s ‘Dune 2’ for predicting the future better than Fukuyama for its old-and-new high-tech, feuding Great Houses struggling for control of the Spice without which the economy can’t function, as religion sweeps people to violent jihad. That comparison is true, but there is a deeper parallel to our present situation. Those who have read the Dune series repeatedly know all that backdrop supports two central overarching themes:

    • First: “Don’t follow charismatic leaders.” Paul Atreides is no hero: he is directly responsible for the deaths of 61 billion people.

    • Second: “The Golden Path.” Paul doesn’t have the stomach to follow through on what he needs to do for mankind, but his son, Leto II, does. **SPOILER ALERT** He fuses himself with a sandworm to become a dictator for 3,500 years, destroying Spice, space travel, and the economy, to teach people “a lesson they will remember in their bones”: that once they can break free of his reign, which he eventually allows, they should become as diverse and far-flung as possible to never allow anyone or anything to threaten them in their entirety again.

    The conflict between humanity's stated desire for peace and their actual need for volatility is the central message of the Dune series.

    We built a centralised neoliberal global system that repressed volatility as QE Spice flowed. But while Great Houses thrived, and some got very rich selling shadow-bank Spice derivatives, that system only increased, not decreased, our fundamental vulnerabilities to key threats. Returning to a world of Great Power struggles may ironically create healthier economic systems and societies over time, in some respects.

    True, that likely won’t allow such free markets. But while we need some volatility to get stronger --think of Taleb’s anti-fragility-- we don’t need other kinds, like a sandworm swallowing us whole (or the financial market equivalent as past vol-repression has to be unwound), or people launching jihads at home or abroad. Which there is rather too much of right now.

    So, Trump fusing with a sandworm may teach us all a geopolitical lesson “in our bones”: does his orange skin reflect excess McMelange consumption even if his eyes aren’t blue-in-blue?

    Back to markets: the God Emperor of Dune, Leto II, maintains a complete monopoly on melange, the real currency in the universe; but apart from that, the books don’t say much about rates or FX. I’m just not sure what the Golden Level of rates is on our Golden Path. Then again, neither do central banks. And financial markets mostly have their heads deep in the sand.

    Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 11:45
  11. Site: Euthanasia Prevention Coalition
    2 days 15 hours ago

    Dear Senator

    EPC-USA's Fact Sheet is testimony regarding the social harms attached to assisted suicide legislation like HB1283. However, given that assisted suicide’s negative impact is going to fall primarily on the disabled community, the EPC felt that we should submit a more detailed analysis of how assisted suicide undermines disability rights, and whose advice on this matter ought to be heeded by members of the Assembly.

    Members of the EPC board with training in the fields of disability studies and advocacy have noted that some assisted suicide advocates are trying to hijack disability rights for their own purposes. For instance, an able-bodied man named Christopher Riddle has done pro-assisted suicide advocacy in the Northeast while presenting himself as a “disability rights advocate.” Riddle is a colleague of Udo Schuklenk, one of the architects of Canada’s euthanasia program, and Riddle enthusiastically approves of that program.

    Moreover, Riddle’s theories about disability rights have been reasonably criticized as lacking any empirical grounding in the experiences of disabled people. He has no experience or personal stake in the practical implications of his ideas.

    Furthermore, Riddle’s scholarship dehumanizes disabled people who are harmed by assisted suicide; he frames anyone who might be harmed by assisted suicide as the equivalent of a car accident statistic. He asserts that harm that assisted suicide might cause for people with disabilities “ought not to be of special concern.” Hence, Riddle is willing to sacrifice people with disabilities for the right to die movement’s agenda; he is not the “disability rights advocate” he claims to be.

    For a more accurate understanding of how the disabled community has approached the issue of assisted suicide, we encourage you to watch a video created by disability studies ethicist Harold Braswell about disability rights opposition to assisted suicide. Braswell has studied the right to die issue extensively.

    There are other very important facts that legislators must take into account when considering how assisted suicide is impacting the disabled community:

    The American Association of Suicidology made a 2017 statement saying that “MAiD” was not suicide. But in 2023 the AAS had to retract that statement because it was used in the 2019 Truchon decision that expanded assisted suicide to disabled Canadians, which was opposed by the Canadian Association for Suicide Prevention.The consequences of the AAS’s statement are an example of how green lighting assisted suicide for the terminally ill easily results in violence against people with disabilities.

    In 2021, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Rights of People with Disabilities asserted that all assisted suicide laws violate its Convention On The Rights of People with Disabilities.

    Peer-reviewed research establishes that people are more likely to view suicide as acceptable if the victim is disabled, and people with disabilities often lack access to comprehensive suicide prevention care. This bill exacerbates that problem by laying the scaffolding for “MAiD” to become a substitute for the suicides of persons with disabilities.

    Well-known right to die leader Thaddeus Mason Pope has tweeted that it’s good for disabled people to die by suicide; the director of Compassion and Choices appeared on Dr. Phil with Pope in 2023. If you pass this bill, you empower and reward a contingent of people who want disabled people’s suicides to be a “medical procedure.”

    We urge you to allow HB1283 to die this session because regardless of its content, it rewards a movement that is hostile to people with disabilities. Exacerbating the oppression that disabled people already face so that the proponents can plan their deaths is unwise and unjust.

    Sincerely,

    Meghan Schrader, Disability Rights EPC-USA
    Josephine L.A. Glaser, MD.,FAAFP
    Colleen E. Barry, Chairperson
    Kenneth Stevens, MD
    William Toffler, MD
    Gordon Friesen
    Alex Schadenberg
    Epc_USA@yahoo.com

    Endnotes

    1. https://twitter.com/cariddlephd/status/1373071051631038470
    2. http://www.lpbr.net/2014/08/disability-and-justice-capabilities.html?m=1
    3. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09687599.2014.984931
    4. https://philpapers.org/rec/RIDAD
    5. https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/vdpwdt26wwq42ak0eraee/Braswell_PAS-Statement_To-Send-1.mov?rlkey=05vve2sis2s4sy51hma27jx2u&dl=0
    6. https://www.slu.edu/arts-and-sciences/bioethics/faculty/braswell-harold.php
    7. https://suicidology.org/2023/03/08/aas-update-on-previous-statement/
    8. https://twitter.com/TrudoLemmens/status/1666067817035190272
    9. https://suicideprevention.ca/media/statement-on-recent-maid-developments/
    10. https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2021/01/disability-not-reason-sanction-medically-assisted-dying-un-experts
    11. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26402344/
    12. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXVrgtTNN2Y&t=2108s
    13. https://twitter.com/ThaddeusPope/status/1669450726831976449
  12. Site: Mises Institute
    2 days 15 hours ago
    Author: Jp Cortez
  13. Site: Zero Hedge
    2 days 15 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    In First, 17 Nations Release Joint Statement Demanding Hamas Release All Hostages

    Hamas has rejected an urgent formal plea from world leaders to release all remaining Israeli hostages, with the designated terror group telling the West "you can't force us to do anything."

    Earlier on Thursday the US was among a group of 17 countries which have citizens in Hamas custody that released a joint statement calling on Hamas to free them.

    Via Flash90

    This was the first such international joint statement of the conflict, which has run for more than half a year. Prior attempts at similar statements never got past the draft phase as countries had vastly differing perspectives of the Gaza crisis.

    "We call for the immediate release of all hostages held by Hamas and Gaza now for over 200 days. They include our citizens," the statement said. "The fate of the hostages and the civilian population in Gaza who are protected under international law is of international concern."

    The leaders from the following countries were behind the statement: United States, Argentina, Austria, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Colombia, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Spain, Thailand and the United Kingdom.

    They push for both warring parties to see through the deal that's reportedly on the table: "Gazans would be able to return to their homes and their lands with preparations beforehand to ensure shelter and humanitarian provisions," it said.

    "We will emphasize that the pending deal for the release of the hostages will lead to an immediate and prolonged ceasefire in Gaza, which will facilitate the introduction of necessary humanitarian aid to be provided throughout Gaza and lead to a reliable end to hostilities," the joint statement continued.

    But Israeli officials have continued to lay blame on Hamas for their inability to reach a deal. One official privy to negotiation efforts described, "The core truth, there's a deal on the table. It meets nearly all of the demands that Hamas has had, including in key elements, one of which I just spoke with." The official added: "And what they need to do is release the vulnerable category of hostages to get things moving.'"

    It reportedly focuses on an initial release of captive women, wounded, elderly, and the sick. Israel has recently acknowledged there's a high likelihood that dozens of hostages have already died.

    According to a new Hamas articulation of its demands via Associated Press:

    A top Hamas political official told The Associated Press the Islamic militant group is willing to agree to a truce of five years or more with Israel and that it would lay down its weapons and convert into a political party if an independent Palestinian state is established along pre-1967 borders.

    The comments by Khalil al-Hayya in an interview Wednesday came amid a stalemate in months of talks for a cease-fire in Gaza. The suggestion that Hamas would disarm appeared to be a significant concession by the militant group officially committed to Israel’s destruction.

    The Netanyahu government has already long rejected this as a possibility. Instead the prime minister has vowed to not stop military operations in the Gaza Strip until Hamas is eradicated.

    NEW: Senior admin official says there’s a Gaza cease-fire deal on the table that meets nearly all of Hamas’ demands, but “it’s really down to one guy to accept the deal.”

    "The answer that comes back from Sinwar personally is no."

    — Elizabeth Hagedorn (@ElizHagedorn) April 25, 2024

    Additionally, there have already been high-level attempts at the UN Security Council to push through a resolution recognizing a Palestinian state, but the US has vetoed this. At this point in the conflict a full demand for a Palestinian state seems to be a non-starter from the perspectives of Tel Aviv and Washington.

    Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 11:25
  14. Site: Zero Hedge
    2 days 15 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    In First, 17 Nations Release Joint Statement Demanding Hamas Release All Hostages

    Hamas has rejected an urgent formal plea from world leaders to release all remaining Israeli hostages, with the designated terror group telling the West "you can't force us to do anything."

    Earlier on Thursday the US was among a group of 17 countries which have citizens in Hamas custody that released a joint statement calling on Hamas to free them.

    Via Flash90

    This was the first such international joint statement of the conflict, which has run for more than half a year. Prior attempts at similar statements never got past the draft phase as countries had vastly differing perspectives of the Gaza crisis.

    "We call for the immediate release of all hostages held by Hamas and Gaza now for over 200 days. They include our citizens," the statement said. "The fate of the hostages and the civilian population in Gaza who are protected under international law is of international concern."

    The leaders from the following countries were behind the statement: United States, Argentina, Austria, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Colombia, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Spain, Thailand and the United Kingdom.

    They push for both warring parties to see through the deal that's reportedly on the table: "Gazans would be able to return to their homes and their lands with preparations beforehand to ensure shelter and humanitarian provisions," it said.

    "We will emphasize that the pending deal for the release of the hostages will lead to an immediate and prolonged ceasefire in Gaza, which will facilitate the introduction of necessary humanitarian aid to be provided throughout Gaza and lead to a reliable end to hostilities," the joint statement continued.

    But Israeli officials have continued to lay blame on Hamas for their inability to reach a deal. One official privy to negotiation efforts described, "The core truth, there's a deal on the table. It meets nearly all of the demands that Hamas has had, including in key elements, one of which I just spoke with." The official added: "And what they need to do is release the vulnerable category of hostages to get things moving.'"

    It reportedly focuses on an initial release of captive women, wounded, elderly, and the sick. Israel has recently acknowledged there's a high likelihood that dozens of hostages have already died.

    According to a new Hamas articulation of its demands via Associated Press:

    A top Hamas political official told The Associated Press the Islamic militant group is willing to agree to a truce of five years or more with Israel and that it would lay down its weapons and convert into a political party if an independent Palestinian state is established along pre-1967 borders.

    The comments by Khalil al-Hayya in an interview Wednesday came amid a stalemate in months of talks for a cease-fire in Gaza. The suggestion that Hamas would disarm appeared to be a significant concession by the militant group officially committed to Israel’s destruction.

    The Netanyahu government has already long rejected this as a possibility. Instead the prime minister has vowed to not stop military operations in the Gaza Strip until Hamas is eradicated.

    NEW: Senior admin official says there’s a Gaza cease-fire deal on the table that meets nearly all of Hamas’ demands, but “it’s really down to one guy to accept the deal.”

    "The answer that comes back from Sinwar personally is no."

    — Elizabeth Hagedorn (@ElizHagedorn) April 25, 2024

    Additionally, there have already been high-level attempts at the UN Security Council to push through a resolution recognizing a Palestinian state, but the US has vetoed this. At this point in the conflict a full demand for a Palestinian state seems to be a non-starter from the perspectives of Tel Aviv and Washington.

    Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 11:25
  15. Site: LifeNews
    2 days 16 hours ago
    Author: Michael New Ph.D.

    Ballot propositions that will either expand access to abortion or place legal abortion into state constitutions will be on the ballot in as many as twelve states this November. It is hardly a secret that, in the years following the Dobbs decision, pro-lifers have not fared well in statewide democracy campaigns.

    However, this year, Florida pro-lifers have a good chance to prevail at the ballot box. That is because ballot propositions to amend Florida’s state constitution need more than 60 percent of the vote to take effect.

    Two separate surveys show that the proposed amendment to place legal abortion in Florida’s state constitution is polling well below this 60 percent threshold. An Emerson College poll released earlier this month found that the abortion amendment has the support of only 42 percent of Sunshine State voters. Additionally, a recent USA Today/Ipsos poll found the abortion amendment was ten percentage points short of passage.

    REACH PRO-LIFE PEOPLE WORLDWIDE! Advertise with LifeNews to reach hundreds of thousands of pro-life readers every week. Contact us today.

    This is good news for pro-lifers. A body of polling data from both Ohio and Michigan show that amendments to place legal abortion in the state constitution fail to appreciably gain support during the course of the campaign. Obviously, Sunshine State pro-lifers still have plenty of work to do. Furthermore, both the presidential election and the enforcement of the Heartbeat Act may affect the dynamics of this direct-democracy campaign. However, these two polls show that a pro-life victory in Florida this November is within reach.

    LifeNews Note: Michael J. New is an assistant professor at the Busch School of Business at The Catholic University of America and is an associate scholar at the Charlotte Lozier Institute. Follow him on Twitter @Michael_J_New

    The post Two Polls Show Florida Amendment for Abortions Up to Birth Will Fail appeared first on LifeNews.com.

  16. Site: RT - News
    2 days 16 hours ago
    Author: RT

    A top official for the militant group has said it will turn into a purely political party if Palestinians are given their own state

    Hamas is willing to lay down arms if a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is reached along pre-1967 borders, a top political official for the group, Khalil al-Hayya, has told AP. Hamas, whose stated goal is the destruction of Israel, had previously rejected such a possibility outright.

    In an interview on Thursday, al-Hayya said Hamas wants to join the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to form a unified government that would control Gaza and the West Bank.

    Hamas would agree to “a fully sovereign Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and the return of Palestinian refugees in accordance with the international resolutions” along Israel’s pre-1967 borders, he claimed.

    As a result of the Six-Day War between Israel and a coalition of Arab nations, the Jewish state occupied the West Bank, Gaza, Syria’s Golan Heights, and other areas.

    If a two-state solution is reached, the military wing of Hamas will dissolve, the official, who represents the group in the now stalled ceasefire and prisoner exchange talks with Israel, insisted.

    Read more Various of pro-Palestinian protest at the University of Texas at Austin Dozens arrested at pro-Palestine protests in US (VIDEO)

    “All the experiences of people who fought against occupiers, when they became independent and obtained their rights and their state, what have these forces done? They have turned into political parties and their defending fighting forces have turned into the national army,” al-Hayya explained.

    According to AP, it is “unlikely” that Israel would consider such a scenario as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to keep fighting Hamas until its complete elimination, and has repeatedly spoken out against a sovereign Palestinian state.

    In January, another senior Hamas official – Khaled Mashal – told Kuwaiti podcaster Amar Taki that “we have nothing to do with the two-state solution.” The group’s members “reject this notion, because it means you would get a promise for a [Palestinian] state, yet you are required to recognize the legitimacy of the other state, which is the Zionist entity,” he said.

    Mashal insisted that the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas, in which at least 1,200 people were killed and 250 taken hostage, was a sign that the Palestinians could retake all their lands. “I believe that the dream and the hope for Palestine from the river to the sea and from the north to the south has been renewed,” he said.

    READ MORE: Netanyahu should resign – ex-US House speaker

    The death toll from Israel’s airstrikes and ground offensive in Gaza, launched in response to the Hamas incursion, has surpassed 34,305, with 77,293 others wounded, according to the latest data from the Palestinian enclave’s health ministry.

  17. Site: RT - News
    2 days 16 hours ago
    Author: RT

    A top official for the militant group has said it will turn into a purely political party if Palestinians are given their own state

    Hamas is willing to lay down arms if a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is reached along pre-1967 borders, a top political official for the group, Khalil al-Hayya, has told AP. Hamas, whose stated goal is the destruction of Israel, had previously rejected such a possibility outright.

    In an interview on Thursday, al-Hayya said Hamas wants to join the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to form a unified government that would control Gaza and the West Bank.

    Hamas would agree to “a fully sovereign Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and the return of Palestinian refugees in accordance with the international resolutions” along Israel’s pre-1967 borders, he claimed.

    As a result of the Six-Day War between Israel and a coalition of Arab nations, the Jewish state occupied the West Bank, Gaza, Syria’s Golan Heights, and other areas.

    If a two-state solution is reached, the military wing of Hamas will dissolve, the official, who represents the group in the now stalled ceasefire and prisoner exchange talks with Israel, insisted.

    Read more Various of pro-Palestinian protest at the University of Texas at Austin Dozens arrested at pro-Palestine protests in US (VIDEO)

    “All the experiences of people who fought against occupiers, when they became independent and obtained their rights and their state, what have these forces done? They have turned into political parties and their defending fighting forces have turned into the national army,” al-Hayya explained.

    According to AP, it is “unlikely” that Israel would consider such a scenario as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to keep fighting Hamas until its complete elimination, and has repeatedly spoken out against a sovereign Palestinian state.

    In January, another senior Hamas official – Khaled Mashal – told Kuwaiti podcaster Amar Taki that “we have nothing to do with the two-state solution.” The group’s members “reject this notion, because it means you would get a promise for a [Palestinian] state, yet you are required to recognize the legitimacy of the other state, which is the Zionist entity,” he said.

    Mashal insisted that the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas, in which at least 1,200 people were killed and 250 taken hostage, was a sign that the Palestinians could retake all their lands. “I believe that the dream and the hope for Palestine from the river to the sea and from the north to the south has been renewed,” he said.

    READ MORE: Netanyahu should resign – ex-US House speaker

    The death toll from Israel’s airstrikes and ground offensive in Gaza, launched in response to the Hamas incursion, has surpassed 34,305, with 77,293 others wounded, according to the latest data from the Palestinian enclave’s health ministry.

  18. Site: RT - News
    2 days 16 hours ago
    Author: RT

    A top official for the militant group has said it will turn into a purely political party if Palestinians are given their own state

    Hamas is willing to lay down arms if a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is reached along pre-1967 borders, a top political official for the group, Khalil al-Hayya, has told AP. Hamas, whose stated goal is the destruction of Israel, had previously rejected such a possibility outright.

    In an interview on Thursday, al-Hayya said Hamas wants to join the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to form a unified government that would control Gaza and the West Bank.

    Hamas would agree to “a fully sovereign Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and the return of Palestinian refugees in accordance with the international resolutions” along Israel’s pre-1967 borders, he claimed.

    As a result of the Six-Day War between Israel and a coalition of Arab nations, the Jewish state occupied the West Bank, Gaza, Syria’s Golan Heights, and other areas.

    If a two-state solution is reached, the military wing of Hamas will dissolve, the official, who represents the group in the now stalled ceasefire and prisoner exchange talks with Israel, insisted.

    Read more Various of pro-Palestinian protest at the University of Texas at Austin Dozens arrested at pro-Palestine protests in US (VIDEO)

    “All the experiences of people who fought against occupiers, when they became independent and obtained their rights and their state, what have these forces done? They have turned into political parties and their defending fighting forces have turned into the national army,” al-Hayya explained.

    According to AP, it is “unlikely” that Israel would consider such a scenario as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to keep fighting Hamas until its complete elimination, and has repeatedly spoken out against a sovereign Palestinian state.

    In January, another senior Hamas official – Khaled Mashal – told Kuwaiti podcaster Amar Taki that “we have nothing to do with the two-state solution.” The group’s members “reject this notion, because it means you would get a promise for a [Palestinian] state, yet you are required to recognize the legitimacy of the other state, which is the Zionist entity,” he said.

    Mashal insisted that the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas, in which at least 1,200 people were killed and 250 taken hostage, was a sign that the Palestinians could retake all their lands. “I believe that the dream and the hope for Palestine from the river to the sea and from the north to the south has been renewed,” he said.

    READ MORE: Netanyahu should resign – ex-US House speaker

    The death toll from Israel’s airstrikes and ground offensive in Gaza, launched in response to the Hamas incursion, has surpassed 34,305, with 77,293 others wounded, according to the latest data from the Palestinian enclave’s health ministry.

  19. Site: RT - News
    2 days 16 hours ago
    Author: RT

    A top official for the militant group has said it will turn into a purely political party if Palestinians are given their own state

    Hamas is willing to lay down arms if a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is reached along pre-1967 borders, a top political official for the group, Khalil al-Hayya, has told AP. Hamas, whose stated goal is the destruction of Israel, had previously rejected such a possibility outright.

    In an interview on Thursday, al-Hayya said Hamas wants to join the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to form a unified government that would control Gaza and the West Bank.

    Hamas would agree to “a fully sovereign Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and the return of Palestinian refugees in accordance with the international resolutions” along Israel’s pre-1967 borders, he claimed.

    As a result of the Six-Day War between Israel and a coalition of Arab nations, the Jewish state occupied the West Bank, Gaza, Syria’s Golan Heights, and other areas.

    If a two-state solution is reached, the military wing of Hamas will dissolve, the official, who represents the group in the now stalled ceasefire and prisoner exchange talks with Israel, insisted.

    Read more Various of pro-Palestinian protest at the University of Texas at Austin Dozens arrested at pro-Palestine protests in US (VIDEO)

    “All the experiences of people who fought against occupiers, when they became independent and obtained their rights and their state, what have these forces done? They have turned into political parties and their defending fighting forces have turned into the national army,” al-Hayya explained.

    According to AP, it is “unlikely” that Israel would consider such a scenario as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to keep fighting Hamas until its complete elimination, and has repeatedly spoken out against a sovereign Palestinian state.

    In January, another senior Hamas official – Khaled Mashal – told Kuwaiti podcaster Amar Taki that “we have nothing to do with the two-state solution.” The group’s members “reject this notion, because it means you would get a promise for a [Palestinian] state, yet you are required to recognize the legitimacy of the other state, which is the Zionist entity,” he said.

    Mashal insisted that the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas, in which at least 1,200 people were killed and 250 taken hostage, was a sign that the Palestinians could retake all their lands. “I believe that the dream and the hope for Palestine from the river to the sea and from the north to the south has been renewed,” he said.

    READ MORE: Netanyahu should resign – ex-US House speaker

    The death toll from Israel’s airstrikes and ground offensive in Gaza, launched in response to the Hamas incursion, has surpassed 34,305, with 77,293 others wounded, according to the latest data from the Palestinian enclave’s health ministry.

  20. Site: Zero Hedge
    2 days 16 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Largest Oil ETF Hit With Record Outflow On Subsiding Geopolitical Risk Premium

    A reduced geopolitical risk premium for Brent crude this week is likely one of the main drivers resulting in the largest daily outflows for the US Oil Fund ETF. Tensions between Iran and Israel have subsided in recent days, and it's entirely possible the White House is busy mediating both sides to ensure a wider conflict doesn't rocket Brent prices above $100/bbl.

    Bloomberg data shows that the US Oil Fund experienced the most massive daily outflow ever on Tuesday, with investors pulling a record $376 million, exceeding the outflow of $323 million set in 2009. Though as the chart below shows, there was a huge inflow just a day or two ago...

    "The timing of this activity coincides with a general easing of immediate tension in the Middle East over the weekend," John Love, chief executive officer of USCF Investments, told Bloomberg. USCF Investments is the firm that manages USO. 

    What happened here? USO's total assets decoupled and negatively diverges from oil prices (a similar picture to what we have seen in gold as physical demand soars as paper demand ebbs). 

    Love said, "Given how high tensions were prior to the strike, it's likely this was an event-driven selloff."

    Brent crude prices topped $91/bbl in early April and traded above the $90/bbl level through the mid-point of April as Iran and Israel volleyed missiles and bombs at each other in an unprecedented escalation between the two countries. However, the turmoil appeared more or less theatrics than anything else. Prices have since faded to the $87-$88/bbl level. 

    "Brent crude oil prices have retreated from their recent highs following a perceived de-escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, and we continue to expect prices to remain range-bound over the coming months given current fundamentals," Goldman's Jenny Grimberg wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. 

    Grimberg shifted up her Brent price floor to $75bbl from the previous line of $70/bbl to reflect OPEC's increasingly strong influence on the market, softening US supply, a more robust demand outlook, and ongoing geopolitical risks. She also adjusted her price forecasts for 2H24/2025 to $86-$82/bbl (from $85-$80/bbl).

    "That said, we maintain our $90/bbl ceiling on prices, owing partly to ample OPEC+ spare capacity, which limits upside price risk," she added. 

    On Thursday, in a separate note, MUFG Bank's Ehsan Khoman outlined a "reduced geopolitical risk premium" impacting Brent prices but said, "a broader risk-off tone is being overshadowed by bullish US crude inventory numbers, with front-end Brent pricing consolidating below the USD90/b handle."

    Khoman pointed out that oil bulls are sitting comfortably with prices over the 50-day moving average of $86/bbl.

    He expects Brent to trade between the $80/bbl and $100/bbl range for the rest of the year primarily because of "effective OPEC+ market management" on the supply side, adding that the lingering risk remains geopolitics in the Middle East. 

    That said, the largest USO daily outflow ever is likely not an ominous sign of a major trend change in crude prices but rather just a cooling of the geopolitical risk premium. A combination of lingering threats in the Middle East and OPEC+ market management will keep prices elevated. 

    Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 11:05
  21. Site: Zero Hedge
    2 days 16 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Largest Oil ETF Hit With Record Outflow On Subsiding Geopolitical Risk Premium

    A reduced geopolitical risk premium for Brent crude this week is likely one of the main drivers resulting in the largest daily outflows for the US Oil Fund ETF. Tensions between Iran and Israel have subsided in recent days, and it's entirely possible the White House is busy mediating both sides to ensure a wider conflict doesn't rocket Brent prices above $100/bbl.

    Bloomberg data shows that the US Oil Fund experienced the most massive daily outflow ever on Tuesday, with investors pulling a record $376 million, exceeding the outflow of $323 million set in 2009. Though as the chart below shows, there was a huge inflow just a day or two ago...

    "The timing of this activity coincides with a general easing of immediate tension in the Middle East over the weekend," John Love, chief executive officer of USCF Investments, told Bloomberg. USCF Investments is the firm that manages USO. 

    What happened here? USO's total assets decoupled and negatively diverges from oil prices (a similar picture to what we have seen in gold as physical demand soars as paper demand ebbs). 

    Love said, "Given how high tensions were prior to the strike, it's likely this was an event-driven selloff."

    Brent crude prices topped $91/bbl in early April and traded above the $90/bbl level through the mid-point of April as Iran and Israel volleyed missiles and bombs at each other in an unprecedented escalation between the two countries. However, the turmoil appeared more or less theatrics than anything else. Prices have since faded to the $87-$88/bbl level. 

    "Brent crude oil prices have retreated from their recent highs following a perceived de-escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, and we continue to expect prices to remain range-bound over the coming months given current fundamentals," Goldman's Jenny Grimberg wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. 

    Grimberg shifted up her Brent price floor to $75bbl from the previous line of $70/bbl to reflect OPEC's increasingly strong influence on the market, softening US supply, a more robust demand outlook, and ongoing geopolitical risks. She also adjusted her price forecasts for 2H24/2025 to $86-$82/bbl (from $85-$80/bbl).

    "That said, we maintain our $90/bbl ceiling on prices, owing partly to ample OPEC+ spare capacity, which limits upside price risk," she added. 

    On Thursday, in a separate note, MUFG Bank's Ehsan Khoman outlined a "reduced geopolitical risk premium" impacting Brent prices but said, "a broader risk-off tone is being overshadowed by bullish US crude inventory numbers, with front-end Brent pricing consolidating below the USD90/b handle."

    Khoman pointed out that oil bulls are sitting comfortably with prices over the 50-day moving average of $86/bbl.

    He expects Brent to trade between the $80/bbl and $100/bbl range for the rest of the year primarily because of "effective OPEC+ market management" on the supply side, adding that the lingering risk remains geopolitics in the Middle East. 

    That said, the largest USO daily outflow ever is likely not an ominous sign of a major trend change in crude prices but rather just a cooling of the geopolitical risk premium. A combination of lingering threats in the Middle East and OPEC+ market management will keep prices elevated. 

    Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 11:05
  22. Site: Zero Hedge
    2 days 16 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Watch: NYU 'Pro-Palestine' Demonstrators Have No Idea What They're Protesting

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    Video captured at New York University shows that some of the students protesting there have no idea why.

    NYU is one of several campuses where so called ‘Gaza camps’ have been formed with students refusing to disperse.

    Yet it seems that the students don’t really know what they are doing it for.

    In the footage below, the videographer asks one of the protesters “What would you say is the main goal with tonight’s protest.”

    She responds “I think the goal is just showing our support for Palestine and demanding that NYU stops – I honestly don’t know all of what NYU is doing.”

    The student then asks her friend “do you know what they are doing?” To which the other (masked) student responds “I wish I was more educated.”

    “I’m not either,” the first protestor then admits, claiming that she came from Columbia University after she was told to.

    Watch:

    “I wish I was more educated.”

    Video captured at New York University shows that some of the students protesting there have no idea why. Full report: https://t.co/iYSbhaxxEf pic.twitter.com/iqXpoZexiP

    — m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) April 25, 2024

    The NYPD arrested more than 150 demonstrators Monday night as the protests turned violent with protesters throwing bottles and other projectiles at police.

    WATCH: Chairs and bottles thrown as New York police clear out the NYU encampment, make arrests

    pic.twitter.com/YGBsJyAULY

    — Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) April 23, 2024

    NYU Spokesperson John Beckman stated “We witnessed disorderly, disruptive, and antagonizing behavior that has interfered with the safety and security of our community, and that demonstrated how quickly a demonstration can get out of control or people can get hurt.”

    Similar scenes unfolded Wednesday at UT Austin:

    Palestinian activists TACKLED to the floor and arrested as Texas DPS troops make dozens of arrests as an unruly mob surround the officers and scream.

    Hundreds of students have occupied the University of Texas- Austin and have been ordered to disperse.

    Video: @RyanChandlerTV pic.twitter.com/lE3RIpgzEr

    — Oli London (@OliLondonTV) April 24, 2024

    *  *  *

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 11:05
  23. Site: Zero Hedge
    2 days 16 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Watch: NYU 'Pro-Palestine' Demonstrators Have No Idea What They're Protesting

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    Video captured at New York University shows that some of the students protesting there have no idea why.

    NYU is one of several campuses where so called ‘Gaza camps’ have been formed with students refusing to disperse.

    Yet it seems that the students don’t really know what they are doing it for.

    In the footage below, the videographer asks one of the protesters “What would you say is the main goal with tonight’s protest.”

    She responds “I think the goal is just showing our support for Palestine and demanding that NYU stops – I honestly don’t know all of what NYU is doing.”

    The student then asks her friend “do you know what they are doing?” To which the other (masked) student responds “I wish I was more educated.”

    “I’m not either,” the first protestor then admits, claiming that she came from Columbia University after she was told to.

    Watch:

    “I wish I was more educated.”

    Video captured at New York University shows that some of the students protesting there have no idea why. Full report: https://t.co/iYSbhaxxEf pic.twitter.com/iqXpoZexiP

    — m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) April 25, 2024

    The NYPD arrested more than 150 demonstrators Monday night as the protests turned violent with protesters throwing bottles and other projectiles at police.

    WATCH: Chairs and bottles thrown as New York police clear out the NYU encampment, make arrests

    pic.twitter.com/YGBsJyAULY

    — Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) April 23, 2024

    NYU Spokesperson John Beckman stated “We witnessed disorderly, disruptive, and antagonizing behavior that has interfered with the safety and security of our community, and that demonstrated how quickly a demonstration can get out of control or people can get hurt.”

    Similar scenes unfolded Wednesday at UT Austin:

    Palestinian activists TACKLED to the floor and arrested as Texas DPS troops make dozens of arrests as an unruly mob surround the officers and scream.

    Hundreds of students have occupied the University of Texas- Austin and have been ordered to disperse.

    Video: @RyanChandlerTV pic.twitter.com/lE3RIpgzEr

    — Oli London (@OliLondonTV) April 24, 2024

    *  *  *

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 11:05
  24. Site: Padre Peregrino
    2 days 16 hours ago
    Author: Father David Nix
    On why the Son of God chose to die as a slave before rising from the dead, and why modern martyrs will follow in His footsteps on both.  (Correction:  I said St. Mark's feast is coming up, but it's today.)
  25. Site: Zero Hedge
    2 days 16 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Russia To Seize $440 Million From JPMorgan

    Seizing assets? Two can play at that game...

    Just days after Washington voted to authorize the REPO Act - paving the way for the Biden administration confiscate billions in Russian sovereign assets which sit in US banks - it appears Moscow has a plan of its own (let's call it the REVERSE REPO Act) as a Russian court has ordered the seizure of $440 million from JPMorgan.

    The seizure order follows from Kremlin-run lender VTB launching legal action against the largest US bank to recoup money stuck under Washington’s sanctions regime.

    As The FT reports, the order, published in the Russian court register on Wednesday, targets funds in JPMorgan’s accounts and shares in its Russian subsidiaries, according to the ruling issued by the arbitration court in St Petersburg.

    The assets had been frozen by authorities in the wake of the western sanctions, and highlights some of the fallout western companies are feeling from the punitive measures against Moscow.

    Specifically, The FT notes that the dispute centers on $439mn in funds that VTB held in a JPMorgan account in the US.

    When Washington imposed sanctions on the Kremlin-run bank, JPMorgan had to move the funds to a separate escrow account. Under the US sanctions regime, neither VTB nor JPMorgan can access the funds.

    In response, VTB last week filed a lawsuit against the New York-based group to get Russian authorities to freeze the equivalent amount in Russia, warning that JPMorgan was seeking to leave Russia and would refuse to pay any compensation.

    The following day, JPMorgan filed its own lawsuit against the Russian lender in a US court to prevent a seizure of its assets, arguing that it had no way to reclaim VTB’s stranded US funds to compensate its own potential losses from the Russian lawsuit.

    Yesterday's decision sided with VTB, ordering the seizure of funds in JPMorgan’s Russian accounts and “movable and immovable property,” including its stake of a Russian subsidiary.

    JPMorgan said it faced "certain and irreparable harm" from VTB’s efforts, exposed to a nearly half-billion-dollar loss, for merely abiding by U.S. sanctions.

    The order was the latest example of American banks getting caught between the demands of Western sanctions regimes and overseas interests. Last summer, a Russian court froze about $36mn worth of assets owned by Goldman following a lawsuit by state-owned bank Otkritie. A few months later the court ruled that the Wall Street investment bank had to pay the funds to Otkritie.

    The tit-for-tat continues.

    Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 10:45
  26. Site: Zero Hedge
    2 days 16 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Russia To Seize $440 Million From JPMorgan

    Seizing assets? Two can play at that game...

    Just days after Washington voted to authorize the REPO Act - paving the way for the Biden administration confiscate billions in Russian sovereign assets which sit in US banks - it appears Moscow has a plan of its own (let's call it the REVERSE REPO Act) as a Russian court has ordered the seizure of $440 million from JPMorgan.

    The seizure order follows from Kremlin-run lender VTB launching legal action against the largest US bank to recoup money stuck under Washington’s sanctions regime.

    As The FT reports, the order, published in the Russian court register on Wednesday, targets funds in JPMorgan’s accounts and shares in its Russian subsidiaries, according to the ruling issued by the arbitration court in St Petersburg.

    The assets had been frozen by authorities in the wake of the western sanctions, and highlights some of the fallout western companies are feeling from the punitive measures against Moscow.

    Specifically, The FT notes that the dispute centers on $439mn in funds that VTB held in a JPMorgan account in the US.

    When Washington imposed sanctions on the Kremlin-run bank, JPMorgan had to move the funds to a separate escrow account. Under the US sanctions regime, neither VTB nor JPMorgan can access the funds.

    In response, VTB last week filed a lawsuit against the New York-based group to get Russian authorities to freeze the equivalent amount in Russia, warning that JPMorgan was seeking to leave Russia and would refuse to pay any compensation.

    The following day, JPMorgan filed its own lawsuit against the Russian lender in a US court to prevent a seizure of its assets, arguing that it had no way to reclaim VTB’s stranded US funds to compensate its own potential losses from the Russian lawsuit.

    Yesterday's decision sided with VTB, ordering the seizure of funds in JPMorgan’s Russian accounts and “movable and immovable property,” including its stake of a Russian subsidiary.

    JPMorgan said it faced "certain and irreparable harm" from VTB’s efforts, exposed to a nearly half-billion-dollar loss, for merely abiding by U.S. sanctions.

    The order was the latest example of American banks getting caught between the demands of Western sanctions regimes and overseas interests. Last summer, a Russian court froze about $36mn worth of assets owned by Goldman following a lawsuit by state-owned bank Otkritie. A few months later the court ruled that the Wall Street investment bank had to pay the funds to Otkritie.

    The tit-for-tat continues.

    Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 10:45
  27. Site: LifeNews
    2 days 16 hours ago
    Author: Bill Donohue

    Joe Biden showed his bigoted side on April 23 when he spoke in Tampa, Florida about the glory of abortion. It wasn’t abortion, per se, that got him going—it was those whom he identified as pro-life that set him off.

    To be specific, he railed against Donald Trump’s pro-life stance, saying the former president made “a political deal” with “the evangelical base of the Republican Party to look past his moral and character flaws.”

    Fifty percent of all the money raised by the Democrats comes from Jews. Yet no one is going to say that Biden made a “political deal” with “the Jewish base of the Democratic Party to look past his cognitive flaws.”

    Biden refuses to condemn the anti-Jewish rhetoric stemming from Muslims in Dearborn, Michigan. Yet no one is going to say that he made a “political deal” with “the Muslim base of the Democratic Party to look past his cognitive flaws.”

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    Notice that Biden’s comment in Tampa wasn’t about Protestants in general. He focused exclusively on evangelicals, and that is because to take a swipe at all Protestants would be to slam the mainline denominations; they are mostly in the pro-abortion camp. He chose a subset of Protestants who are known for their pro-life convictions.

    Biden intentionally red-flagged evangelicals, knowing it would appeal to his bigoted base (survey data also show that Democrats do not think highly of Catholics, either). This was a classic example of religious baiting, and it should be condemned by everyone.

    As the election year progresses, look for Biden to continue with this demagogic strategy. The “devout Catholic” has no problem manipulating religion to serve his militantly secular agenda.

    LifeNews Note: Bill Donohue is the president of the Catholic League for Religious and Civil Rights.

    The post Joe Biden Trashed Pro-Life Christians at Abortion Rally appeared first on LifeNews.com.

  28. Site: Zero Hedge
    2 days 16 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Falling Bond Yields Show It's Crunch Time In China

    Authored by Simon Black, Bloomberg macro strategist,

    Sovereign yields in China have been falling in recent months, in marked contrast to almost every other major country. This is a key macro variable to watch for signs China is ready to ease policy more comprehensively as its tolerance is tested for an economy that is becoming increasingly deflationary. Further, vigilance should be increased for a yuan devaluation. Though not a base case, the tail-risk of one occurring is rising.

    Year of the Dragon in China it may be, but the economy has yet to exhibit the abundance of energy and enthusiasm those born under the symbol are supposed to possess. China failed to exit the pandemic with the resurgence in growth seen in many other countries, and the outlook has been lackluster ever since.

    But we are entering the crunch phase, where China needs to respond forcefully, or face the prospect of a protracted debt-deflation. The signal is coming from falling government yields. They have been steadily falling all year, at a faster pace than any other major EM or DM country. Indeed yields have been rising in almost every other country.

    That’s a problem for the yuan. The drop in China’s yields is adding pressure on the currency. Widening real-yield differentials show that there remains a strong pull higher on the dollar-yuan pair.

    The question is: will this prompt a devaluation in the yuan? The short answer is less likely than not, but it can’t be discounted, and the risks are rising as long as capital outflows continue to climb.

    We can’t measure those directly in China as the capital account is nominally closed. But we can proxy for them by looking at the trade surplus, official reserves held at the PBOC, and foreign currency held in bank deposits. The trade surplus is a capital inflow, and whatever portion of it that does not end up either at the PBOC or in foreign-currency bank accounts we can infer is capital outflow.

    This measure is rising again, as more capital typically tries to leave the country when growth is sub-par, as it is today.

    So far, China appears to be managing the decline in the yuan versus the dollar. USD/CNY has been bumping up against the 2% upper band above the official fix for the pair. But China is stabilizing the yuan’s descent through the state-banking sector. As Brad Setser noted in a recent blog, the PBOC has stated that it has more or less exited from the FX market. Instead, that intervention now takes place unofficially using dollar deposits held at state banks.

    China has plenty of foreign-currency reserves to stave off continued yuan weakness (more so than is readily visible, according to Setser), but there is always the possibility policymakers decide to ameliorate the destructive impact on domestic liquidity from capital outflow by allowing a larger, one-time devaluation. There is speculation this is where China is headed, and that it is behind its recent stockpiling of gold, copper and other commodities.

    However, there are risks attached to such a move, given it might be detrimental to the more normalized markets that China covets in the name of financial stability, as well potentially prompting a tariff response from the US.

    A devaluation is a low, but non-zero, possibility that has risen this year. Either way, the drop in bond yields underscores that China will soon need to do something more dramatic to avert the risk of a debt deflation.

    In the past, the current rate of decline in sovereign yields has led to a forthright easing response from China, with a rise in real M1 growth typically seen over the next six-to-nine months.

    But M1 growth in China has singularly failed to bounce back so far despite several hints that it was about to. This is likely a deliberate policy choice as rises in narrow money are reflective of broad-based “flood-like” stimulus that policymakers in China have explicitly ruled out as recently as January, in comments from Premier Li Qiang. Policymakers are laser-focused on not re-inflating the shadow-finance sector, which continues to be squeezed.

    Shadow finance led to unwanted speculative froth in markets, real estate and investment that China does not want to see reprised. But its curbs have been too successful. Credit remains hard-to-get where it is needed most, typically the non state-owned sectors.

    The slowdown this fostered was amplified by China’s response to the pandemic. Rather than supporting household demand, policymakers in China supported the export sector, leading to a surge in outward-bound goods.

    Stringent lockdowns prompted households to become exceptionally risk averse, increasing their savings, and being reluctant to spend even after restrictions were lifted, lest the government decided to paralyze the economy again at some future time.

    This also caused the real estate sector to implode, prompting multiple piecemeal easing measures to support housing prices and indebted property developers, to little avail so far: leading indicators for real estate such as floor-space started remain muted or weak, while the USD-denominated debt of property companies continues to trade at less than 25 cents in the dollar.

    China has a large and growing debt pile that is only set to get worse as its demographics continue to deteriorate. The alarming chart below from the IMF projects public debt (including local government financing vehicles) in China to accelerate way ahead of that in the US in the coming years, to around 150% of GDP by the end of the decade. Total non-financial debt is already closing in on 300% of GDP.

    Source: IMF

    This raises the risk of a debt-deflation, when the value of assets and the income from them fall in relation to the value of liabilities. Debt becomes increasingly difficult to service and pay back, leading to lower consumption and investment, entrenched deflation and derisory growth that is difficult to escape.

    Woody Allen once quipped that mankind is at a crossroads, one road leads to despair and utter hopelessness and the other to total extinction. China’s choices are not yet that stark, but the longer it waits to deliver an emphatic response to its predicament, they may soon become that way.

    Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 10:30
  29. Site: The Orthosphere
    2 days 17 hours ago
    Author: JMSmith

    I once read an essay lamenting the disappearance of what I recall the essayist calling, “negroes in white shirts and bow ties.”  The essayist was one of those late-onset conservatives we call “liberals mugged by reality.”  The “negroes in white shirts and bow ties” were the polite, often Christian, white-acting blacks who had won the late-onset conservative’s sympathy when the Civil Rights Movement was young.

    What the late-onset conservative did not understand was that the success of the Civil Rights Movement entailed the disappearance of “negroes in white shirts and bow ties.”  Obviously, “white shirts and bow ties” here simply signify acting white.  That is what respectable white men were wearing around 1960, and because whites were hegemonic in 1960, respectable blacks wore them too.

    The wardrobe of lower middle-class American males changed very markedly by the late 1960s, so there were very few blacks outside the Nation of Islam wearing white shirts and bow ties; but the disappearance of “negroes in white shirts and bow ties” was caused by something deeper than the sartorial revolution of the late 1960s.

    The success of the Civil Rights Movement meant that blacks were now free to act black.  The key word that I just used is hegemony.  To this I must add the companion word toady.   A hegemon has the power to impose his vision on the world, the toady yields to that power and conforms to that vision.

    What we can learn from the lament of the “mugged-by-reality” liberal (a.k.a the “late-onset conservative”) is that hegemons can fail to see their own power.  When they survey a throng that dresses and acts like down-market versions of themselves, the hegemon does not see toadies.  At least not always.  He sees “negros in white shirts and bow ties,” who’s unlikeness to him goes no deeper than to the color of their skins.

    But the point of a liberation movement like the Civil Rights Movement is not to allow toadies to go on dressing and acting like their former masters.  It is to liberate the toadies from hegemony and allow them to act like themselves.

    We see this in the liberation movements we call the Women’s Rights Movement and the Gay Rights Movement, both of which quickly went places that shocked some of their early supporters.  Thus the “feminine businesswomen” and “confirmed bachelors” quickly went the way of “negroes in white shirts and bow ties.”   They did not all become power-skirts, leather-boys, and black panthers, but enough did to make many former hegemons into “late-onset conservatives.”

    The hegemony of straight white Christian males has been, of course, entirely destroyed.  This is why the teaching toadies of today’s actual hegemons do little but rail against it.  We must never forget that Cassandra was effectively mute, while the appointed oracles of the regime always shriek with contagious alarm at newfangled phantoms and ghosts of rivals long dead.

    We must also never forget what I will call the Hegemon’s Illusion, which is to believe he is loved when he is in fact only feared.  I do not suppose that straight white Christian males will be in a position to fall under the Hegemon’s Illusion any time soon, but as toadies we may possibly use it to our advantage.

  30. Site: LifeNews
    2 days 17 hours ago
    Author: Alliance Defending Freedom

    Alliance Defending Freedom attorneys representing a Young Americans for Freedom chapter and three students at the University at Buffalo will be available for media interviews Friday following oral arguments in federal district court. ADF attorneys are challenging university officials and the Student Association after they derecognized the conservative student group and barred it from receiving the same benefits as other student groups because it is a chapter of a national organization, Young America’s Foundation.

    ADF attorneys filed a federal lawsuit against the school in June, and a month later, the Student Association rescinded its policy and recognized YAF, but it replaced the policy with another unconstitutional one that requires student organizations and their leaders to give up their legal rights in order for the clubs to be officially recognized. Now, because Young Americans for Freedom rightly won’t sign a form waiving its legal rights, the Student Association has blocked the student group from accessing more than $6,000 in student-fee funding in its account, using authority given it by university officials. ADF attorneys filed a motion in March asking the court to allow the student group to access funds while the case proceeds.

    “All students, regardless of their political affiliations, should have access to generally available resources, and universities are constitutionally bound to protect these rights,” said ADF Legal Counsel Logan Spena, who will be arguing before the court on behalf of YAF and the students. “Unfortunately, the University at Buffalo and its student government are picking and choosing winners and losers in the marketplace of ideas, first by punishing the group for its national affiliation with a conservative group, then by demanding that group leaders sign away their freedoms. Public universities cannot force student organizations to become an extension of the university or student government. We are urging the court to stand up for the First Amendment rights of all students, not just some.”

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    The university’s new policy requires that club leaders certify that they surrender their, and their organization’s, right to file a lawsuit against the university or its officials in the future, exist as a legal entity under state law, have financial accounts as an organization, and enter into agreements with other individuals or organizations. As a result, ADF attorneys amended their lawsuit in University at Buffalo Young Americans for Freedom v. University at Buffalo Student Association after the school rescinded the original policy barring the group from official recognition.

    Young Americans for Freedom has existed as a registered student organization on the UB campus since 2017, and for the last two years, the student group has had more than 100 members and has held weekly meetings on campus. As a chapter of Young America’s Foundation, UB Young Americans for Freedom’s purpose is to provide an environment for the students of UB to learn about U.S. history, the U.S. Constitution, individual freedom, a strong national defense, free enterprise, and other topics. Like other clubs, Young Americans for Freedom fulfills its mission by engaging in expressive activities on campus, including posting flyers and signs, hosting tables with information, inviting speakers to campus, and talking with fellow students.

    Denis Kitchen, one of more than 4,500 attorneys in the ADF Attorney Network, is serving as local counsel on behalf of Young Americans for Freedom and the students.

    The post Conservative Student Group Sues University of Buffalo for Cancelling Club, Blocking Financial Account appeared first on LifeNews.com.

  31. Site: Zero Hedge
    2 days 17 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Wall Street Reacts To Today's Stagflationary Data Dump

    After today's stagflationary GDP print, which came below the lowest Wall Street estimate even as core PCE came in above the highest estimate...

    ... there has been an outcry of horror from Wall Street's traders, analysts and strategists as the BEA once again steamrolled all over Wall Street's benevolent forecasts for a soft, or no, landing and crash-landed right into stagflation nation.

    Below we excerpt from some of the most notable kneejerk responses and comments:

    Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets, on the potential implication of the core PCE inflation gauge this morning on tomorrow’s monthly release:

    “The question has quickly become whether this is due to revisions from Jan/Feb or if tomorrow’s monthly core-PCE report will reveal a stronger-than-consensus (+0.3%) print.”

    Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intel chief Rates strategist

    “The rate market is keenly focused on the PCE deflator beating expectations in 1Q. We still target 4.70% as a key technical level for 10-year Treasury yield. A break of that targets the cycle highs around 5%.”

    “It looks like the fiscal drag on the economy may have begun with federal government consumption actually a drag on GDP this quarter. Not huge, but any negative print is still a shift from the past few years. But 2.5% consumption growth still isn’t anywhere near recession, and services consumption growing at 4% suggests a more pronounced slowdown could be a long way off.”

    Sebastian Boyd, Bloomberg analyst

    Bond traders can read the GDP data in two ways. The growth number was a big miss, but prices rose faster than expected. Of course this is the first pass at the data, but if it holds up then it shows the US economy is considerably weaker than thought, which would open the way to earlier interest rate cuts. On the other hand, the Fed is more likely to focus on inflation than growth, and the price index, especially the core price index, doesn’t offer any comfort on that front. Two-year yields initially fell, but are now much higher on the day. Stock futures are down; the dollar is spiking. Keep an eye on the yen.

    Lindsay Rosner, head of multisector fixed income investing at GSAM

    "The report has a disappointing headline and consumption line item, but at this point, inflation concerns weigh more than GDP softness for the Fed.”

    Quincy Krosby, Chief Global Strategist at LPL Financial:

    “The softer first read of Q1 GDP could shift -- again- the Fed’s timetable for initiating the rate easing cycle, with July coming back into play. If the PCE report due tomorrow similarly suggests the downward path of inflation has begun to once again momentum, it could serve as a catalyst for the market.”

    Dan Suzuki, deputy CIO at Richard Bernstein Advisors,

    "The GDP print is not as bad a print as it appears on the surface.  The main drags were in goods demand (which we already knew based on the manufacturing PMIs), government spending and exports. I think it was actually pretty encouraging to see solid investment spending in both capex and housing, while weaker net exports reflect the robust domestic demand for imports, even as economic growth outside the US has been a bit more tepid.”

    Enda Curran, Bloomberg Fed watcher and commentator

    "The other political takeaway from today’s data is that just six months out from the presidential election, it looks like the economy is finally slowing down. The details of the data are overall robust -- but it’s the headline that counts for politicos."

    Rubeela Farooqi, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics:

    “The outlook going forward is uncertain. Strength in the labor market is likely to keep household spending and growth positive for now. However, a delay in Fed rate cuts to counter sticky inflation could be headwinds for consumption and the growth trajectory over coming quarters.”

    Olu Sonola, head of US economic research for Fitch Ratings:

    “The hot inflation print is the real story in this report. If growth continues to slowly decelerate, but inflation strongly takes off again in the wrong direction, the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in 2024 is starting to look increasingly more out of reach.”

    Jan Hatzius, Goldman economist

    Real GDP rose 1.6% annualized in the advance reading for Q1 (qoq ar)—0.9pp below consensus and the first quarter below 2% since the second quarter of 2022. The composition was not as soft, as the contribution from inventories (-0.4pp vs. GS +0.2pp) and foreign trade (-0.9pp vs. -0.4pp) accounted for the bulk of the miss. Indeed, domestic demand growth proceeded at a strong pace of +2.8% annualized. This reflected a double-digit pace of residential investment growth (+13.9%) and solid growth in consumption (+2.5%) and business fixed investment (+2.9%), the latter reflecting gains in two of the three capex subcategories (equipment +2.1%, intellectual property +5.4%, structures -0.1%). Government spending growth slowed more than we expected to +1.2% (vs. GS +1.9% and Q4 +4.6%), reflecting a surprising decline in federal (-0.2%) and a smaller-than-forecast rise in state and local (+2.0%) spending.

    Alan Detmeister, UBS economist

    We had 3.5% so were slightly less surprised than the consensus. The months that go into the Q1 number released today will be used in the 12-month change on Thursday, however the weighting across those months is quite different with the January monthly change getting much more weight in today’s quarterly number than it does in the 12-month change released tomorrow (and the opposite for the March monthly change). Nonetheless the 0.2pp upward surprised on the annualized Q1 core PCE price change definitely increases the risk of an upward surprise to the 12-month change tomorrow. (Treating months equally it would suggest tomorrow’s estimate of the 12-month change around 5bp higher than what we have.)  It is more difficult to say anything on the March monthly because it is quite possible that today’s surprise was upward revisions to January or February, so again today’s data raises the upside risk on March, but hard to say how much.

    Source: Bloomberg

    Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 10:07
  32. Site: Zero Hedge
    2 days 17 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    US Pending Home Sales Rise In March, But...

    After new home sales soared (thanks to prior downward revisions) and existing home sales plunged in March (along with the collapse in housing starts and permits in March), this morning's pending home sales data was expected to rise very modestly MoM (less than in February) but remain lower on a YoY basis.

    In an odd turn of events, pending home sales beat on a MoM (SA) basis (+3.4% vs +0.4% exp) but missed on a YoY (NSA) basis (-4.5% vs -3.0% exp). Sales were up 0.1% YoY on a seasonally-adjusted basis...

    Source: Bloomberg

    This is the 28th straight month of YoY declines for non-seasonally-adjusted pending home sales.

    That leaves pending home sales hovering just off record lows...

    Source: Bloomberg

    The gains were led by the South and the West, and, to a lesser extent, the Northeast, with the MidWest seeing sales slump 4.3$ MoM. All regions are lower on a YoY basis.

    While the pending-sales index reached a high point, “it still remains in a fairly narrow range over the last 12 months without a measurable breakout,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

    “Meaningful gains will only occur with declining mortgage rates and rising inventory.”

    And given the tight correlation with mortgage rates, it looks like pending home sales are set to continue their downward slope...

    Source: Bloomberg

    As a reminder, the pending-home sales report is a leading indicator of existing-home sales given houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

    Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 10:06
  33. Site: Mises Institute
    2 days 17 hours ago
    Author: Octavio Bermudez
    Unsurprisingly, Javier Milei’s free-market and antistate initiatives face opposition in Argentina. Whether he is successful depends on his being able to politically outlast his collectivist opposition.
  34. Site: Steyn Online
    2 days 17 hours ago
    It's time for Part Seven of my latest Tale for Our Time: The Secret Adversary, with Agatha Christie venturing from country-house murders at St Mary Mead into the high stakes of post-Great War politics. Mike Clifson, a Mark Steyn Club member from
  35. Site: Steyn Online
    2 days 17 hours ago
    Greetings one and all and welcome to the Passover 2024 edition of Laura's Links. After many hours of toil, the Cohen household was Kosher for Passover on Sunday last week, just in time to cook up a storm for the Seder that we hosted. The story of the
  36. Site: LifeNews
    2 days 17 hours ago
    Author: Steven Ertelt

    A mom who chose life and achieved her educational goal of graduating from college has done so with assistance from a pro-life program. And Katie Chihoski will walk across the stage to receive her diploma with her 18-month-old daughter by her side.

    Chihoski is the first student to graduate from University of Mary, a Catholic liberal arts college in Bismarck, North Dakota, under a new pro-life program. Launched last year, the “St. Teresa’s” program pledges to help single mothers by providing room, board, and child care as well as opportunities for building relationships necessary to help both mother and child.

    Chihoski could have easily had an abortion. But she decided to give birth to her daughter and, as a result, the entire college has stepped up to assist her – doing everything from babysitting to feeding to connecting her with other young moms for support.

    The Catholic News Agency has more:

    Chihoski hopes to walk across the stage with Lucia, who will be wearing a toddler-sized cap and gown on graduation day.

    “I think she will walk across the stage with me, if I can figure out the logistics,” she said. “I would love to make that a tradition for future graduating mothers.”

    Chihoski said that although she had some worries about attending school with a young daughter, Lucia has made things “twice as fun.”

    Please follow LifeNews.com on Gab for the latest pro-life news and info, free from social media censorship.

    “Coming to school, I expected to be seen as different, and somewhat outcast from the typical college life,” she explained. “I think it was difficult to get used to my tag-along when going to events on campus, but Lucia makes the world twice as much fun.”

    “Attending school with my daughter, Lucia, has been the most amazing thing to witness,” she said. “Children bring out the joy in people and offer a fuller sense of purpose.”

    “Our students hear all the time about how they can give their life away in love,” Ruggles added. “This community shows students what that can look like from a practical perspective and gives students an opportunity to practice that by giving their time and love to these mothers and their children.”

    Today, women are told to put off childbearing to “achieve their dreams”: travel the world, graduate from college, succeed in a career, buy a house, volunteer for a cause and make a difference in the world before having children.

    The problem is that this prioritization of life goals has led to shame and stigma around young motherhood, whether unplanned or by choice, and many young women who get pregnant feel pressured to abort their unborn babies.

    Yet, so many other women have rejected abortion and still graduated from college, which proves abortion is unnecessary.

    LifeNews Photo Credit: Fabrizio Alberdi, EWTN News in Depth

    The post Mom Who Rejected Abortion Will Graduate From College, Get Diploma With 18-Month-Old By Her Side appeared first on LifeNews.com.

  37. Site: RT - News
    2 days 17 hours ago
    Author: RT

    The EU must prove that it is not a vassal of the United States, the French president has said in a keynote speech

    French President Emmanuel Macron has urged EU nations to make decisive changes to secure the bloc’s interests ahead of crucial parliamentary elections across the bloc. The US cannot be relied on for protection, he warned.

    Opinion polls are projecting that EU voters will shift towards right-wing nationalist politics in the European Parliament elections in early June.

    Macron called for significant policy changes as he addressed his counterparts across the continent from the Sorbonne University in Paris on Thursday.  

    ”Our Europe today is mortal and it can die,” Macron warned. “It can die, and this depends only on our choices.”

    The French leader touted ‘strategic autonomy’ for Europe, particularly in terms of military production. He reiterated that member states should spend more on defense and give priority to locally-produced weapons – a suggestion that critics perceive as lobbying for French arms manufacturers. Macron said that this would reduce the continent’s dependence on Washington.

    Read more  Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban NATO ‘one step away’ from sending troops to Ukraine – Orban

    The EU “must show that it is never a vassal of the United States and that it also knows how to talk to all the other regions of the world,” the president said.

    He also advocated a wider revision of policies on fair trade, manufacturing standards and other areas that affect the competitiveness of European businesses.

    ”It cannot work if we are the only ones in the world to respect the rules of trade – as they were written up 15 years ago – if the Chinese and the Americans no longer respect them by subsidizing critical sectors,” Macron declared.

    He labeled Russia’s “uninhibited” behavior as a key threat to Europe. Moscow has argued that the EU has shot itself in the foot by following the US and joining what it regards as a proxy war against Russia, in one instance being waged in Ukraine.

    READ MORE: Macron wants von der Leyen replaced – Bloomberg

    Macron’s presidency will expire in three years. His political party Renaissance lost its majority in the French parliament in 2022, while the right-wing National Rally party, which is projected to win the EU elections in France in June, has threatened to demand a dissolution of the national parliament, should the president’s centrist coalition suffer a crushing defeat in June.

  38. Site: RT - News
    2 days 17 hours ago
    Author: RT

    The EU must prove that it is not a vassal of the United States, the French president has said in a keynote speech

    French President Emmanuel Macron has urged EU nations to make decisive changes to secure the bloc’s interests ahead of crucial parliamentary elections across the bloc. The US cannot be relied on for protection, he warned.

    Opinion polls are projecting that EU voters will shift towards right-wing nationalist politics in the European Parliament elections in early June.

    Macron called for significant policy changes as he addressed his counterparts across the continent from the Sorbonne University in Paris on Thursday.  

    ”Our Europe today is mortal and it can die,” Macron warned. “It can die, and this depends only on our choices.”

    The French leader touted ‘strategic autonomy’ for Europe, particularly in terms of military production. He reiterated that member states should spend more on defense and give priority to locally-produced weapons – a suggestion that critics perceive as lobbying for French arms manufacturers. Macron said that this would reduce the continent’s dependence on Washington.

    Read more  Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban NATO ‘one step away’ from sending troops to Ukraine – Orban

    The EU “must show that it is never a vassal of the United States and that it also knows how to talk to all the other regions of the world,” the president said.

    He also advocated a wider revision of policies on fair trade, manufacturing standards and other areas that affect the competitiveness of European businesses.

    ”It cannot work if we are the only ones in the world to respect the rules of trade – as they were written up 15 years ago – if the Chinese and the Americans no longer respect them by subsidizing critical sectors,” Macron declared.

    He labeled Russia’s “uninhibited” behavior as a key threat to Europe. Moscow has argued that the EU has shot itself in the foot by following the US and joining what it regards as a proxy war against Russia, in one instance being waged in Ukraine.

    READ MORE: Macron wants von der Leyen replaced – Bloomberg

    Macron’s presidency will expire in three years. His political party Renaissance lost its majority in the French parliament in 2022, while the right-wing National Rally party, which is projected to win the EU elections in France in June, has threatened to demand a dissolution of the national parliament, should the president’s centrist coalition suffer a crushing defeat in June.

  39. Site: Zero Hedge
    2 days 17 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    This "Emperor" Has No Clothes

    Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

    Does the Fed even matter that much to the real economy and investor portfolios?

    That’s an important question that doesn’t get nearly enough scrutiny. It’s possible that neither the Fed nor the reporters who cover the Fed want to ask hard questions about what the Fed really does.

    Could it be the case that the emperor has no clothes?

    Financial journalists often refer to a Goldilocks economy (“not too hot, not too cold, just right!”) as a tribute to the Fed’s finesse in handling rates. It’s also called the “soft landing” scenario because the Fed supposedly tamed inflation without causing a recession.

    These narratives have no factual foundations; they’re just stories designed to get you to buy stocks and pump up stock prices.

    The truth is the Fed is always behind the curve and doesn’t finesse the economy. And there’s no such thing as a soft landing; the economy does not gradually shift gears. It’s either growing fast or going into recession.

    So where does the Fed stand today? Will it start cutting rates as Wall Street keeps (wrongly) predicting?

    Wall Street Keeps Getting It Wrong

    The Fed will not cut rates at its May or June meetings. Wall Street’s been predicting rate cuts for almost two years and they’ve been wrong every time. They’re predicting a June rate cut, and they’ll be wrong again.

    A rate cut at the July 31 meeting is possible but is in jeopardy now due to inflation going up again in the latest report. We’ll have three more months of inflation, unemployment and GDP data between now and then.

    If the Fed does cut rates in late July, it won’t be for good reasons. It’ll be because the economy has fallen into a recession. But given the boost to U.S. growth from out-of-control government spending in an election year, the recession may be postponed. So don’t count on a July rate cut either.

    There’s no Fed meeting in August. The next meeting after that is Sept. 18. The Fed may be ready for a rate cut by then but here’s the problem: The Sept. 18 date is just seven weeks before the election on Nov. 5. The Fed pretends it’s non-political but in fact, it is highly political.

    A rate cut in September will be viewed as helping Biden by boosting the economy and hurting Trump. At the same time, Trump is the likely winner based on currently available polling data and trends.

    The Fed won’t want to be in the position of appearing to boost Biden and hurt Trump if Trump is going to win. Trump will make the Fed Public Enemy No. 1 and that’s the last thing they want. So the Fed will take a pass in September.

    There’s no Fed meeting in October. The next two Fed meetings after that are on Nov. 7 and Dec. 18, both safely after the election. The Fed could cut rates at both meetings. But the Fed has painted itself into a corner on that.

    The Fed’s Running out of Time

    Beginning at the FOMC meeting on March 20, the Fed promoted the narrative that there would be three rate cuts before the end of the year. If they don’t cut in May, June, July or September (for reasons noted above) and there are no meetings in August or October, then the Fed would have at most two rate cuts this year, in November and December.

    In short, the Fed is running out of meetings in which to conduct three rate cuts and may have to settle for two.

    The Fed’s reckless promise and the dictates of the calendar are what are driving the stock market. The stock market’s fixated on the Fed, but the Fed doesn’t know what they’re doing. That’s a recipe for volatility and a sharp reversal of the first-quarter gains.

    So why doesn’t the Fed just get on with it and start cutting rates in May? They could make an announcement and hire a band to play “Happy Days Are Here Again.”

    The Fed thought they had won the battle when inflation dropped from 9.1% (CPI year-over-year) in June 2022 to 3.0% in June 2023. Nice job, Fed. It was when that June 2023 reading came out in July 2023 that the Fed put in one last rate hike, and then stopped dead. Since then, it’s been a countdown to rate cuts.

    The problem is that inflation isn’t done. From the 3.0% in June 2023, inflation rose to 3.7% in August, and 3.7% again in September 2023. Inflation fluctuated between 3.1% and 3.4% until recently. March inflation came in at 3.5%, a full 0.3 percentage points higher than in February.

    Oil’s up 24% in 4 Months

    That’s not all that’s going up. The price of oil was $68.50 per barrel last Dec. 12 and is over $83.00 per barrel today. That’s about a 21% increase in just four months.

    That oil price shock hasn’t worked its way through the supply chain yet. It has resulted in some price increases, but more are in the pipeline. This oil price spike will keep inflation at current levels or higher in the months ahead. The Fed is looking for signs that inflation is coming down but they’re not going to get them, as shown in the latest inflation report.

    The price of one gallon of regular gasoline (regular, national average) was $3.64 as of yesterday, April 22. It was $3.57 on April 4, $3.55 on April 3, $3.54 on March 28, $3.52 on March 4 and $3.51 on April 4, 2023.

    Put differently, gas prices are higher than they were last week, last month and last year.

    That’s a bad sign for Biden politically, but it’s a worse sign for the Fed in terms of inflation. That gas price rise isn’t over because the wholesale price of oil is still on the rise. And oil prices affect far more than the price of gas at the pump.

    Higher oil prices mean higher transportation costs whether by truck, train, plane or ship since all goods have to be transported to market. That means the price of everything is going up.

    Other factors driving inflation from the supply side include the Key Bridge collapse in Baltimore, the closing of the Red Sea/Suez Canal shipping route and continued fallout from Ukraine war sanctions. Some of these supply side constraints may be deflationary in the long run, but they are definitely inflationary in the short run.

    Running on Fed Happy Talk

    The stock market has been running on Fed Happy Talk. That situation may end abruptly on June 12 if the Fed doesn’t cut rates and signals that rate cuts are not to be expected in the near future and perhaps not before the end of the year.

    By then, we may be facing one of the worst economic outcomes possible: recession + inflation = stagflation.

    Anyone under the age of 60 probably has no acquaintance with stagflation.

    The U.S. last experienced this in 1977–1981. I remember that period well. It was great for leveraged holders of hard assets such as gold and real estate.

    It was a nightmare for holders of stocks. (The long-term bull market in stocks did not start until August 1982.)

    Investors might keep that winning hard asset portfolio allocation in mind as events unfold between now and June.

    Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 09:35
  40. Site: Zero Hedge
    2 days 18 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Harvey Weinstein Conviction Overturned On Appeal

    A New York Court of Appeals has overturned Harvey Weinstein's 2020 conviction on felony sex crime charges, for which he was sentenced to 23 years in prison.

    In a 4-3 decision, the court found that the trial judge in the disgraced mogul's case had made a critical error, allowing prosecutors to call a series of women as witnesses who said that Weinstein had assaulted them, but whose accusations weren't part of the charges against him, the NYT reports.

    In 2020, Lauren Young and two other women, Dawn Dunning and Tarale Wulff, testified about their encounters with Weinstein under a state law that allows testimony about “prior bad acts” to demonstrate a pattern of behavior. But the court in its decision on Thursday said that “under our system of justice, the accused has a right to be held to account only for the crime charged.”

    ...

    Citing that decision and others it identified as errors, the appeals court determined that Mr. Weinstein, who as a movie producer had been one of the most powerful men in Hollywood, had not received a fair trial. The four judges in the majority wrote that Mr. Weinstein was not tried solely on the crimes he was charged with, but instead for much of his past behavior. -NYT

    The decision was determined by one vote on a majority female panel of judges, who in February held a searching public debate over the fairness of the original trial.

    Weinstein was convicted of raping aspiring actress Jessica Mann at a DoubleTree hotel in 2013 when she was 27-years-old, and forcing oral sex on former production assistant Mimi Haleyi, then 28, at his apartment in 2006.

    Now, Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg, who's currently prosecuting former President Donald Trump, will have to decide whether to seek a retrial of Weinstein - who remains in an upstate prison in Rome, NY at the moment. It's unclear how the decision will affect his future. In 2022, he was convicted by a California court of raping a woman in a Beverly Hills hotel and sentenced to 16 years in prison. The jury found Weinstein guilty of rape, forcible oral copulation, and sexual penetration by foreign object involving a woman known as Jane Doe 1.

    The 2022 jury acquitted Weinstein of a sexual battery charge made by a massage therapist who treated him at a hotel in 2010, and was unable to reach a decision on two allegations, including rape, involving Jennifer Siebel Newsom, the wife of California’s Democratic governor Gavin Newsom. She was known as Jane Doe 4 in the trial, and had testified to being raped by Weinstein in a hotel room in 2005.

    Weinstein was convicted of sexually abusing over 100 women - and was convicted of assaulting two of them in the New York case.

    "That is unfair to survivors," said actress Ashley Judd, the first actress to come forward with allegations against Weinstein, the NYT's Jodi Kantor reports. "We still live in our truth. And we know what happened."

     

    Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 09:17
  41. Site: Ron Paul Institute - Featured Articles
    2 days 18 hours ago
    Author: Jacob G. Hornberger

    A recent op-ed in the Los Angeles Times demonstrates what is a warped interpretation of the term “patriotism.” The op-ed is about former football player Pat Tillman, who was killed in Afghanistan twenty years ago. It’s written by Bill Dwyre, a former sports editor for the Times.

    Dwyre reminds us that Tillman was motivated to join the military after the 9/11 attacks. He gave up a $3.6 million football contract to join the U.S. military and was hoping to be sent to Afghanistan to fight the terrorists.

    Dwyre writes, “It was a can’t-miss story of patriotism. Americans applauded from the safety and comfort of our homes and communities.” (Since he uses the pronoun “our,” presumably Dwyre fell into the “safety and comfort” group rather than the “patriot” group.)

    Unfortunately, however, Dwyre doesn’t explain why Tillman’s act was one of “can’t miss” patriotism. Apparently for him it’s a self-evident truth.

    No declaration of war

    The U.S. Constitution is the supreme law of the land. It is the higher law that we the people impose on government officials. We are expected to obey their laws, and they punish us when we fail to do so. By the same token, they are supposed to obey our law, the Constitution.

    The Constitution requires a congressional declaration of war as a prerequisite to a president’s waging war against any other nation-state. If a president and his army wage war without a congressional declaration of war, they are acting in violation of the law.

    It is undisputed that President Bush did not secure a congressional declaration of war from Congress before he ordered his military to invade Afghanistan. That made their war illegal under our form of government.

    How can participating in an illegal war be considered “patriotic”? Dwyre doesn’t explain that.

    The U.S. was the aggressor under Nuremberg

    Moreover, the common perception is that Bush invaded Afghanistan because the Taliban regime, which was governing the country, had been complicit in the 9/11 attacks by having knowingly harbored Osama bin Laden, who U.S. officials suspected had orchestrated the attacks.

    Not so. Bush initiated his war because the Taliban regime refused to comply with his unconditional demand to deliver bin Laden into the hands of the Pentagon and the CIA. Yet, there was no extradition treaty between Afghanistan and the United States and, therefore, Afghanistan was operating within its rights under international law to refuse Bush’s unconditional extradition demand.

    Nonetheless, knowing that the Pentagon and the CIA would torture bin Laden into confessing to the crime, Afghanistan offered to deliver him to an independent nation for a fair trial. In making the offer, Afghanistan sought the same amount of proof that would be required in a normal extradition hearing. The U.S. government refused the offer, perhaps because it was unable to provide such proof.

    Therefore, given that Afghanistan had the authority under international law to refuse Bush’s extradition demand, that makes Bush’s invasion illegal under the war-of-aggression provision of the Nuremberg War Crimes Tribunal.

    How can participation in an unconstitutional and illegal war be considered “patriotic”? Unfortunately, Dwyre fails to explain.

    If one assumes that the 9/11 attackers were the ones who did the attacking (as compared to the attacks being an “inside job,” as some believe), it’s worth pointing out that they were motivated by the death and destruction that the U.S. government’s foreign policy had wreaked in the Middle East. But of course, a real “patriot” does not bring up that discomforting fact and instead blindly supports the government’s claim that the terrorists attacked us out of hatred for our “freedom and values.”

    Tillman’s opposition to the Iraq War

    One of the fascinating aspects of Dwyre’s op-ed glorifying Tillman’s patriotism is what he leaves out of the op-ed. Tillman was an outspoken opponent of Bush’s invasion and war of aggression against Iraq. Dwyre doesn’t even mention that, which is revealing.

    Keep in mind, after all, that Bush’s war on Iraq was also waged without a congressional declaration of war, making it illegal under our form of government. Bush’s claim that he was waging to war to enforce UN resolutions falls flat because only the UN can enforce its resolutions. The fact is that the U.S. war on Iraq was an even clearer case of a war of aggression under the Nuremberg principles than the U.S. war on Afghanistan.

    Despite Tillman’s fierce objections to the U.S. war on Iraq, the U.S. military nonetheless ordered him to “serve” in Iraq, which he did. Keep in mind though that every U.S. soldier takes an oath to support and defend the Constitution and is under a legal and moral obligation to refuse to obey unlawful orders. Tillman chose to obey the unlawful order to deploy to Iraq.

    U.S. government lies

    After his “service” in Iraq, Tillman was deployed to Afghanistan, where he continued to speak out against the U.S. war on Iraq. It was there that he was killed. As Dwyre points out, the U.S. military initially lied about his death, claiming falsely that he was killed by enemy fire. In fact, what actually happened is that he was killed by his own men in what was described as “friendly fire.”

    In 2006, Tillman’s brother, Kevin Tillman, wrote a scathing op-ed on truthdig.com, in which he echoed his brother Pat’s view of the Iraq war: “Somehow American leadership, whose only credit is lying to its people and illegally invading a nation, has been allowed to steal the courage, virtue and honor of its soldiers on the ground.”

    Why would’t Dwyre mention Pat Tillman’s (and his brother’s) fierce opposition to the U.S. war on Iraq in his op-ed? My hunch is that it’s because he considers opposition to U.S. wars to be unpatriotic and, therefore, Tillman’s apparent lack of “patriotism” with respect to Iraq doesn’t fit conveniently within his patriotism narrative. Under Dwyre’s warped interpretation of patriotism, apparently it’s only those who blindly support the U.S. national-security state’s foreign wars and its interventionist foreign policy who should be considered “patriots.” Apparently, those who reject such wars and choose instead to remain in the “safety and comfort” of their homes instead of fighting them should be considered non-patriots.

    Reprinted with permission from Future of Freedom Foundation.

  42. Site: LifeNews
    2 days 18 hours ago
    Author: Steven Ertelt

    Catholics and pro-life groups denounced President Biden for making the Sign of the Cross in support of abortion.

    On Tuesday, Biden attended a campaign rally in Tampa, FL, where he snidely made the sign of the cross while Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried slammed her state’s legislation protecting unborn babies.

    Outraged on behalf of their faith, and concerned for the soul of their president, CatholicVote was among the first to point out Biden’s blatant hypocrisy.

    “Biden’s decision to make the Sign of the Cross in support of abortion extremism is a despicable charade that attempts to co-opt a sacred practice in support of his new abortion religion.” CatholicVote President Brian Burch posted to X (formerly Twitter).

    “His gesture openly mocks the Christian belief in the sanctity of life,” Burch added. “There is no divine support for destroying the lives of innocent children, and he should know better.”

    Please follow LifeNews.com on Gab for the latest pro-life news and info, free from social media censorship.

    “Absolutely vile,” Bishop Joseph Strickland posted. “Pray for the soul of our president, he is a feeble old man, he needs to prepare to meet his maker…”

    International pro-life organization 40 Days for Life called the president’s actions “shameful.”

    The organization’s president Shawn Carney also reacted to Biden’s gesture writing, “The sign of the cross at the abortion rally is cringe but makes sense when you make it your golden calf.”

    The Daily Signal’s Mary Margaret Olohan wrote “Biden blesses himself in apparent horror at [Republican Florida Gov.] Ron DeSantis protecting unborn babies from abortion.”

    Catholic attorney and former Trump administration official Roger Severino replied to Olohan’s post stating, “The sign of the cross is sacred, not a political prop, especially not in support of abortion.”

    Catholic pro-life advocate Anna Lulis was quick to spell out the hypocrisy she saw: “No Catholic should ever invoke God to excuse and promote killing innocent children in the womb.”

    Students for Life America President Kristan Hawkins called upon her fellow Catholics to point out the lies.

    Finally, Abby Johnson, a former Planned Parenthood director turned vocal pro-life speaker, stated that Biden “mocked God” through this action.

    LifeNews Note: Joshua Mercer writes for CatholicVote, where this column originally appeared.

    The post Biden Doing Sign of the Cross at Abortion Event Confirms He’s No “Devout Catholic” appeared first on LifeNews.com.

  43. Site: Ron Paul Institute - Featured Articles
    2 days 18 hours ago
    Author: Daniel McAdams

    In the last days of East Germany, when government officials detected that their power was unraveling, they ratcheted up enforcement of the nation’s reporting laws. The reporting laws made it a felony to know of a crime and fail to report it. It was also a crime to tell the person of whose crime you learned that you had done so. There was no right to privacy and there was no freedom of speech.

    This Orwellian tangle resulted, of course, in many false reports of crimes. It also resulted in many prosecutions for failing to report crimes or for warning others that they were being spied upon. As of this past weekend, we in America are headed to the same authoritarian place. Thanks to legislation that fell one vote short of demise in each house of Congress last weekend, America in 2024 will soon resemble East Germany in the late 1980s, where nearly everyone was a spy and no one could talk about it.

    Here is the backstory.

    The quintessential American right is the right to be left alone. Justice Louis Brandeis called it the most comprehensive of rights and the right most valued by civilized persons. It presumes that you can think as you wish and say what you think and read what you want and publish what you say, that you can exclude whomever you wish — including the government — from your property and from your thoughts; and that you can do all this without a government permission slip or fear of government reprisal.

    This natural right is also protected in the Fourth Amendment to the Constitution, which requires a warrant issued by a judge based upon probable cause of crime before the government can invade your property or spy on you.

    The warrant requirement serves three purposes.

    The first is to force the government to stay in the lane of crime solving, rather than crime predicting.

    This concern was initially manifest in 1765 when the British government entered colonial homes with warrants issued by secret courts in London based on governmental need, not probable cause, ostensibly looking to see if the colonists had purchased government stamps as the Stamp Act required. The true goal of these forced entries was to search for revolutionary materials in order to help the government predict who might be planning the revolution that came in 11 years.

    The second purpose of the warrant requirement is to prevent fishing expeditions, hence the Fourth Amendment also requires that the warrants specifically describe the place to be searched and the person or thing to be seized.

    The third and most fundamental purpose of the warrant requirement is to reduce to writing the right to privacy. All persons — even the federal spies themselves, now about 100,000 in number — want privacy. The Framers knew this and believed they had guaranteed it in the Fourth Amendment.

    They were wrong.

    After the abuses of the right to privacy orchestrated by President Richard Nixon and carried out by the CIA and the FBI during the Watergate era, Congress enacted the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which established a secret court to do to Americans what the British had done to the colonists — issue broad general warrants, based on whatever the government wanted and not specifying the place to be searched or the person or thing to be seized. Much of the intelligence community gave only lip service to FISA and used high-tech means to spy on all persons in the U.S. all the time.

    When the courageous Edward Snowden, who had been both a CIA and an NSA agent, revealed the warrantless spying, instead of curtailing it, Congress made it lawful; unconstitutional, but lawful.

    The infamous Section 702 of FISA expressly authorizes the feds to spy on foreign persons and those with whom they communicate, inside the U.S. and elsewhere, without warrants. That means that if a foreign person communicates with an American, the feds can spy on the American as well, without a warrant. The FISA Court has interpreted 702 to permit the feds to spy on communications with foreigners — even innocuous communications, like family chatter, ordinary commercial transactions, or academic or medical consults — and the Americans with whom they speak to the third degree.

    Hence, if you email your cousin in Europe, the feds can warrantlessly capture all the fiber-optic traffic you generate, as well as all the traffic of all persons in the U.S. to whom you communicate, as well as all the traffic generated by all persons to whom they communicate. If you do the math, you will see that these numbers of victims — Americans spied upon without suspicion, probable cause or warrants — can quickly reach into the hundreds of millions.

    The new Section 702 is worse for freedom than its predecessor. Though shortened to two years before sunsetting — these sunsets are a joke as they never happen — the new 702 requires that any person in the U.S. who installs, maintains or repairs any fiber-optic system must assist the feds in using that system to spy on the person’s own customers. It also prohibits that person from speaking about this. What happened to the freedom of speech?

    It gets worse. The new Section 702 exempts members of Congress from the thou shalt not tell. So, if you or I or a member of the Supreme Court is spied upon by our cable installer, he cannot tell anyone. But if your representatives in Congress are spied upon, the cable installer and the spies will inform them. What kind of a democracy is this? And if the cable installer does tell you or refuses to spy upon you, the terrors of East Germany will come down upon him.

    Why do we permit Congress with a whimper to legislate away the freedom of speech and the right to privacy? Why do we repose the Constitution for safekeeping into the hands of those determined to kill it? Is it any wonder that cynicism about the government is so pervasive in the land?

    To learn more about Judge Andrew Napolitano, visit https://JudgeNap.com.

    COPYRIGHT 2024 ANDREW P. NAPOLITANO

    DISTRIBUTED BY CREATORS.COM

  44. Site: Zero Hedge
    2 days 18 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    'Stagflationary' GDP Data Sparks Market Turmoil, Rate-Cut Hopes Crushed

    Weaker than expected growth and hotter than expected prices... the perfect example of a central banker's nemesis: Stagflation...

    ...and the market is very unhappy about it.

    Olu Sonola, head of US economic research for Fitch Ratings:

    “The hot inflation print is the real story in this report. If growth continues to slowly decelerate, but inflation strongly takes off again in the wrong direction, the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in 2024 is starting to look increasingly more out of reach.”

    Rate-cut expectations have dropped back near cycle lows (for 2024 and 2025)...

    Source: Bloomberg

    Treasury yields are soaring, led by the short-end...

    Source: Bloomberg

    With 2Y back above 5.00% (will it hold)...

    Source: Bloomberg

    Stocks are getting spanked...

    Commodities are less anxious with oil sliding a little, gold rallying modestly even with the dollar rising...

    Source: Bloomberg

    Crypto is heading lower...

    Source: Bloomberg

    What time is the Biden press conference to confirm there will be rate-cuts this year?

    Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 09:00
  45. Site: RT - News
    2 days 18 hours ago
    Author: RT

    Thousands of students have staged demonstrations in response to Israel’s assault on Gaza

    US police arrested more than 80 protesters on Wednesday as part of a crackdown on pro-Palestine demonstrations which have gained momentum across American university campuses.   

    A wave of demonstrations from Massachusetts to California began last week after students at New York’s Columbia University set up tent camps, demanding that universities cut ties to Israel and divest from companies allegedly contributing to the Gaza conflict. They also publicly called for a ceasefire in the Palestinian enclave.  

    Companies being targeted include Amazon and Google, which are part of a $1.2 billion cloud-computing contract with the Israeli government. Microsoft, whose services are used by Israel’s Defense Ministry and Israeli civil administration, has also been condemned, as well as arms manufacturers profiting from the war such as Lockheed Martin.  

    Students at schools including New York University, Harvard, and Yale demand that the US government “cease all funding for Israeli weapons and stop giving them any more money to continue this genocide,” Cameron Jones, part of Columbia’s Jewish Voice for Peace movement, said in a video statement on Wednesday.   

    Visiting the campus at Columbia on Wednesday, US House Speaker Mike Johnson denounced the protests as “mob rule” and condemned what he called a “virus of anti-Semitism” at colleges nationwide.  

    “And it’s detestable, as Columbia has allowed these lawless agitators and radicals to take over,” he claimed, calling for the resignation of the university’s president.   

    Activists deny that the protests are anti-Semitic, and say Jewish students are largely involved in organizing the demonstrations.    

    Hundreds of Columbia faculty members staged a walkout on Monday to criticize the university leadership and express their solidarity with the protesters. Demonstrators condemned the Columbia president’s decision to call police onto campus. History professor Christopher Brown publicly branded it “unprecedented, unjustified, disproportionate, divisive and dangerous.”

    The rallies have led to mass suspensions and hundreds of student arrests in New York and other cities. At least 34 people, including a photojournalist, were detained after police stormed the campus at the University of Texas in Austin on Wednesday, according to the Texas Department of Public Safety. At least 50 more were detained by police at the University of Southern California, local media reported.

    A surge of demonstrations followed the deadly attack on Israel by the Palestinian armed group Hamas in October. The students are protesting Israel’s relentless retaliatory assault on Gaza, which has caused unprecedented destruction in the enclave and left more than 34,000 people dead, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry.

  46. Site: RT - News
    2 days 18 hours ago
    Author: RT

    The defense minister’s remarks came after President Duda signaled Warsaw’s willingness to host US nuclear weapons

    A potential deployment of US nuclear weapons to Poland would breach key arms control accords between NATO and Russia, French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu warned on Thursday. Polish President Andrzej Duda said earlier this week that his country was willing to host such weapons if Washington supported the idea.

    Under NATO’s nuclear sharing program the US maintains some of its weapons of mass destruction in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Türkiye.

    Last year, Russia placed its own tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, with President Vladimir Putin citing the two countries’ strategic alliance as well as increased NATO military activity close to Belarusian and Russian territory. The president pointed out at the time that Washington has for decades deployed its own nuclear weapons in allied nations.

    In an interview with Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper, published on Wednesday, Lecornu pointed out that a hypothetical deployment of US nuclear weapons to Poland would first require thorough discussions between NATO member states, as it “would undermine the NATO-Russia founding act.”

    Read more Polish president Andrzej Duda. EU state’s president rejects own PM’s ‘pre-war’ warning

    The minister also noted that France, the sole nuclear power within the European Union, does not participate in NATO’s nuclear planning group. Lecornu explained that Paris is “completely autonomous in our planning and in our deterrence system.”

    On Thursday, Polish President Duda told reporters that he had invited Prime Minister Tusk for a meeting on May 1 to discuss their apparent divergence of opinion on the issue of US nuclear weapons.

    In an interview with the Polish daily Fakt on Monday, President Duda revealed that such a development “has been a topic of Polish-American talks for some time.” The head of state – whose powers do not exceed those of the prime minister under Poland’s parliamentary system – added that he had “declared our readiness” in case “our allies decide to deploy nuclear weapons… on our territory.”

    Commenting on President Duda’s remarks, Prime Minister Tusk, who represents a rival political force, stated that the president’s words warrant clarification as “this idea is very massive.”

    The premier emphasized that at present Warsaw has no specific plans to host foreign weapons of mass destruction.

    Meanwhile, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told TASS news agency on Thursday that should Warsaw and Washington go ahead with such “deeply destabilizing” and “threatening” arrangements, the sites hosting American nuclear weapons would “definitely become targets” for the Russian military.

  47. Site: RT - News
    2 days 18 hours ago
    Author: RT

    The defense minister’s remarks came after President Duda signaled Warsaw’s willingness to host US nuclear weapons

    A potential deployment of US nuclear weapons to Poland would breach key arms control accords between NATO and Russia, French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu warned on Thursday. Polish President Andrzej Duda said earlier this week that his country was willing to host such weapons if Washington supported the idea.

    Under NATO’s nuclear sharing program the US maintains some of its weapons of mass destruction in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Türkiye.

    Last year, Russia placed its own tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, with President Vladimir Putin citing the two countries’ strategic alliance as well as increased NATO military activity close to Belarusian and Russian territory. The president pointed out at the time that Washington has for decades deployed its own nuclear weapons in allied nations.

    In an interview with Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper, published on Wednesday, Lecornu pointed out that a hypothetical deployment of US nuclear weapons to Poland would first require thorough discussions between NATO member states, as it “would undermine the NATO-Russia founding act.”

    Read more Polish president Andrzej Duda. EU state’s president rejects own PM’s ‘pre-war’ warning

    The minister also noted that France, the sole nuclear power within the European Union, does not participate in NATO’s nuclear planning group. Lecornu explained that Paris is “completely autonomous in our planning and in our deterrence system.”

    On Thursday, Polish President Duda told reporters that he had invited Prime Minister Tusk for a meeting on May 1 to discuss their apparent divergence of opinion on the issue of US nuclear weapons.

    In an interview with the Polish daily Fakt on Monday, President Duda revealed that such a development “has been a topic of Polish-American talks for some time.” The head of state – whose powers do not exceed those of the prime minister under Poland’s parliamentary system – added that he had “declared our readiness” in case “our allies decide to deploy nuclear weapons… on our territory.”

    Commenting on President Duda’s remarks, Prime Minister Tusk, who represents a rival political force, stated that the president’s words warrant clarification as “this idea is very massive.”

    The premier emphasized that at present Warsaw has no specific plans to host foreign weapons of mass destruction.

    Meanwhile, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told TASS news agency on Thursday that should Warsaw and Washington go ahead with such “deeply destabilizing” and “threatening” arrangements, the sites hosting American nuclear weapons would “definitely become targets” for the Russian military.

  48. Site: Zero Hedge
    2 days 18 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims Continue To Ignore Reality

    In the real world labor market, 2024 has been a shitshow of layoffs...

    1. Everybuddy: 100% of workforce
    2. Wisense: 100% of workforce
    3. CodeSee: 100% of workforce
    4. Twig: 100% of workforce
    5. Twitch: 35% of workforce
    6. Roomba: 31% of workforce
    7. Bumble: 30% of workforce
    8. Farfetch: 25% of workforce
    9. Away: 25% of workforce
    10. Hasbro: 20% of workforce
    11. LA Times: 20% of workforce
    12. Wint Wealth: 20% of workforce
    13. Finder: 17% of workforce
    14. Spotify: 17% of workforce
    15. Buzzfeed: 16% of workforce
    16. Levi's: 15% of workforce
    17. Xerox: 15% of workforce
    18. Qualtrics: 14% of workforce
    19. Wayfair: 13% of workforce
    20. Duolingo: 10% of workforce
    21. Rivian: 10% of workforce
    22. Washington Post: 10% of workforce
    23. Snap: 10% of workforce
    24. eBay: 9% of workforce
    25. Sony Interactive: 8% of workforce
    26. Expedia: 8% of workforce
    27. Business Insider: 8% of workforce
    28. Instacart: 7% of workforce
    29. Paypal: 7% of workforce
    30. Okta: 7% of workforce
    31. Charles Schwab: 6% of workforce
    32. Docusign: 6% of workforce
    33. Riskified: 6% of workforce
    34. EA: 5% of workforce
    35. Motional: 5% of workforce
    36. Mozilla: 5% of workforce
    37. Vacasa: 5% of workforce
    38. CISCO: 5% of workforce
    39. UPS: 2% of workforce
    40. Nike: 2% of workforce
    41. Blackrock: 3% of workforce
    42. Paramount: 3% of workforce
    43. Citigroup: 20,000 employees
    44. ThyssenKrupp: 5,000 employees
    45. Best Buy: 3,500 employees
    46. Barry Callebaut: 2,500 employees
    47. Outback Steakhouse: 1,000
    48. Northrop Grumman: 1,000 employees
    49. Pixar: 1,300 employees
    50. Perrigo: 500 employees
    51. Tesla: 10% of workforce

    But, according to the government-supplied data...

    The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time last week dropped to just 207k (SA), below the 215k expectation, and back near YTD lows.

    Source: Bloomberg

    Continuing Claims also improved (though still a little elevated) falling back below 1.8mm (1.781mm to be exact) - near the lowest of the year...

     

    Source: Bloomberg

    But, here's the thing... WARNs are soaring... and Challenger-Grey just announced that March saw the most job cuts (90,309) since January 2023...but government-supplied data on initial jobless claims continues to smoothly tick along near record lows...

    Source: Bloomberg

    Ah, Bidenomics!!

    If Trump wins in November, will all this data suddenly be 'allowed' to reflect reality?

    Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 08:39
  49. Site: Zero Hedge
    2 days 18 hours ago
    Author: Tyler Durden
    US Secretly Armed Ukraine With Long-Range ATACMS Last Month

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    The US confirmed on Wednesday that it had secretly sent Ukraine long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) last month as part of a $300 million arms package.

    The long-range ATACMS can be fired from the HIMARS rocket systems and can hit targets up to 190 miles away, a range that marks a significant escalation in US support for Ukraine.

    An M270 firing an ATACMS, US Army image

    Last year, the US secretly shipped an older cluster bomb variant of the ATACMS that has a range of about 100 miles. Previously the Pentagon signaled it was intentionally limiting ranges of missiles shipped to Ukraine.

    A Biden administration official said Ukraine has already used the longer-range ATACMS twice, including in an attack on a Russian base in Crimea. US-supported attacks on Crimea or the Russian mainland always risk a major escalation from Moscow.

    National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said a "significant number" of the ATACMS have been sent to Ukraine but wouldn’t specify how many.

    He said more were on the way as part of a $1 billion arms package that President Biden approved on Wednesday, although the Pentagon didn’t list ATACMS when it announced the weapons shipment.

    The $95 billion foreign military aid bill President Biden signed into law on Wednesday included a provision that said Ukraine would be sent long-range ATACMS.

    In response to that news, the Kremlin reaffirmed its long-stated position that it will take more territory in Ukraine to counteract the long-range NATO missiles.

    Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 08:25
  50. Site: RT - News
    2 days 19 hours ago
    Author: RT

    The US, UK and Australian partnership has been considering adding Japan and South Korea as partners

    Plans for AUKUS pact countries to work with Japan and South Korea would turn the Asia-Pacific region into a “touch-and-go nuclear minefield,” North Korean international affairs analyst Kang Jin Song has warned, in an article published on Thursday by state news agency KCNA.

    His comments come after the defense chiefs of the US, UK and Australia issued a statement earlier this month announcing that they were considering cooperation with Japan on advanced military technology for the trilateral security pact. The group is also considering the addition of South Korea, Canada and New Zealand as potential partners.

    Kang blasted Washington’s plans to add more crew members to the “confrontation ship called AUKUS” as “sinister,” and stated that the goal of the group was to “push the nuclear minefield in the Asia-Pacific region closer to China.”

    “This is mainly aimed at building double and triple infrastructure for implementing the integrated deterrence strategy against China by ultimately putting together tools designed for achieving supremacy existing in the Asia-Pacific region in a latticed way,” Kang wrote.

    The analyst called on the “peace camp in the region and the rest of the world” to “heighten vigilance against the reckless moves of Washington to frantically expand its alliance sphere without limits, targeting a central state.”

    AUKUS was originally established in 2021 between the US, the UK and Australia under the guise of technology sharing. The three nations have insisted that the partnership is not a formal military alliance. Under the pact’s so-called ‘Pillar 1’, Washington and London have pledged to help Canberra obtain nuclear-powered submarines.

    ‘Pillar 2’ of the agreement provides for broader technology-sharing between the pact members and can potentially involve other countries.

    Read more  US Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Bonnie Jenkins. US denies submarine pact will trigger arms race

    On April 8, the AUKUS members released a joint statement, announcing that the group was officially considering cooperation with Japan on Pillar 2 advanced capability projects, but said they would not be extending official membership to Tokyo just yet.

    China has condemned the project as an attempt to build an “Asia-Pacific version of NATO,” and has warned that AUKUS could kick off an “arms race” in the region, calling on the international community to address the nuclear “proliferation risks” posed by the group.

    Other South Asian countries have also criticized the pact, with Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickermensinghe stating last year that AUKUS was a “strategic misstep” and a “military alliance” aimed against China, which would only divide Asia into rival camps and destabilize the region.

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