Syria - A Short Note on Recent Developments

All this mess could have been avoided, would have Putin listend to his military staff and the stavka in general, and had not made deals with Erdogan.
The economic gains for Russia (south stream) are only a leverage for Erdogan, and the dream to push Turkey out of NATo was always a pipe dream.
IMO Putins biggest foreign policy mistake in all of his time in office.
And one that will threaten to bring down all achievements in the last year for Russias standing in the middle east, and ofc for the national security of Russia.

With a person like Erdogan, you either dominate him, or he does you. And now, it all comes tumbling down.
Now Erdogan calls Putins bluff. Putin will not risk as much as Erdogan, which leaves Erdo in the strong position, as he has no qualms to sacrifice the lives of his soldiers or even risk a full blown war.
Either Russia now goes all in, and shoots down any drone, and any plane that is attacking SAA in Idlib, and goes on the offensive and attacks Turks without qualms, or this is going to end badly.
Pompeo, Bibi etc now, after years, see a chance to win the war again, and they are already pushing to exploit this.

This is majorly fuckup up.

Posted by: DontBelieveEitherPr. | Mar 1 2020 14:36 utc | 1

...

Thanks *b*.
Yeah, it's getting pretty bad.
I feel soo sorry for the Syrian People, their soldiers, and those that are true allies.
X-

Posted by: Veritas X- | Mar 1 2020 14:46 utc | 2

...

I don't see turkey backing down. The treacherous nature of messiah ideologies (in this case of the Ottoman strain) make it almost impossible for Erdo-Sultan to respect his allies, let alone overcome his delusions of empire.

I pray for things to deescalate on Syria and I certainly wish that horrible war (at the very least) gets a much deserved "break", but things are getting ugly really quickly. And with Washington and tel aviv all excited over the prospect of more War in Syria it really is looking like the war will rage on.

Posted by: Erdo lost his mind | Mar 1 2020 14:46 utc | 3

...

You don’t do “deals” with killers. A love of Israel will always be a weakness, an undoing of a life

Posted by: Sadness | Mar 1 2020 14:49 utc | 4

...

This takes me back to Ukraine when the "anti-terrorist operation" was going on, all the whining back and forth about Putin and what he should do.

The behavior of the Russians IS very noticeable. Erdogan too. The question "who is nuts here?" keeps coming to mind. I still think something is up. Erdogan feels cornered, or that's what he says. Let's see where we are in a week before drawing conclusions. It's been a bumpy ride since New Years.

Posted by: Bemildred | Mar 1 2020 14:52 utc | 5

...

Even now there are foreign troops and intelligence agents on the ground working to escalate this situation.
Russia does not want or need a war with Turkey so I guess Putin will wait until the situation in Turkey changes. The economy is one area ... It’s going to be hit hard by a strengthening dollar and the coming sovereign debt crisis Mk 2. Then Russia will hold all the cards.

Posted by: Jl | Mar 1 2020 15:02 utc | 6

...

Guys, lets be real honest here. All these arm chair quarterbacks saying how weak Putin is here dont have a clue. As a combat Vet I'm looking at this realistically. Even if Russia wanted to save Assad's ass how can he? Like it or not the Russian presence in Syria is untenable against a full scale Turk invasion. As much as I hate the Turks, they would overrun Latakia and Tartus in hours if they wanted to. You really think a handful of Russian jets & 2 frigates in the Med can stop that? How is Russia even going to resupply itself in Syria if the Turks close its airspace and the Bosporus? The only way Russia would have any chance would be full scale war against Turkey and that would evoke Article 5. You dumb asses want to start WW3 over this? Stop letting your emotions do the thinking and think about this logically. I hate this as much as anyone here, but there really isn't much Russia can do militarily. On the other hand, there is plenty Russia, China & Iran can do politically & financially and the wanna be Sultans days are numbered. But on the other hand, does Russia really want a CIA stooge taking the Sultans place? Russia has some tough decisions to make and I do think Putin is up to teh task. Patience my boys!

Posted by: BigShawn | Mar 1 2020 15:03 utc | 7

...

I wonder if all of these posters saying Putin should have done this or that, has even a clue as to the games being played on the world stage or who should be attacked and who shouldn't.

Heard these same old lines when the Ukraine was on fire, that Putin should have gone in and bombed then back to the stone age because that's what the west would have done,I reall think that these posters would be better off staying out of the picture when they don't have a clue as to what's really going on.Just saying.!!!

Posted by: bluedogg | Mar 1 2020 15:06 utc | 8

...

Last week's statements by Lavrov that Turkey doesn't uphold their side of the Sochi deal should imply a Russian response. This response most likely won't be of a military nature, which would have much more downside risk than upside for Russia, but of a diplomatic nature: a renegotiation of the deal to clarify each side's responsibilities.

Turkey obviously would like to control Idlib and the northern parts of Aleppo, Raqqa and Al-Hasakah provinces indefinitely, if not outright annex them. Ultimately, Turkey will do its best to expel Russians from Syria and consolidate its influence throughout the region. That's why Turkey's goals are incompatible with those of Russia.

Posted by: s | Mar 1 2020 15:10 utc | 9

...

...

Russia would need a much larger force on the ground to counter any large scale Turkish operation and have the willingness to use them. Putin has maintained the Syrians equipment needs, run some small scale counter insurgency operations, and a much larger air operation. They have relieved some MP units freeing them but not much else.

Without a larger Russian intervention the head choppers win this round and the Turks get their buffer zone. The last of the Christian in the area will have to leave, die or change religious affiliation. Just like the good old days.

This is the area where many Armenia Christians fled to after the slaughter at the end of the Ottoman empire. There may be an element of revenge against Syria as well. The Syrians played a large role in taking down the Ottomans with the aid of the West. They were promised a free nation and ended up being a colony of the West. After becoming a nation after WWII they chose Russia as an ally as they remembered the double crossing West is not to be trusted.

Posted by: dltravers | Mar 1 2020 15:32 utc | 13

...

Coming to a head

Anticipating the 'Assad must go!' Coalition strategy.

1. To succeed in Idlib, Turkey needs to sideline Russia air support.

1. Turkey has not (thus far) been able to intimidate Russia into ending its support for SAA in Idlib.

1. We've all noted Turkey's propaganda push, which makes it appear that Turkey is being more successful against SAA than they are.

1. One unusual propaganda item was Turkey's announcement that they hit a chemical plant south of Idlib.

1. In the past, people have questioned wmd false flags, pointing out that it makes no sense for Assad to use wmds when he's winning.

1. USA/Trump has made use of wmds a 'red line' via his TWO missile attacks on Syria (each based on ff).

Turkey's propaganda is meant to convey the impression that they are winning. They MAY TRY to claim that Assad conducted a chemical attack as a desperate move to prevent a Turk victory. This would then prompt USA/NATO to impose a 'no fly zone' over Idlib (or threaten to do so).

Thoughts?

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 1 2020 15:33 utc | 14

...