THE CORONAVIRUS: This Too Shall Pass (If we don't kill ourselves first)

So, you've been watching CNN. That's great. Okay, here we go, let's respond to every sky-is-falling objection you raise:

1) As López-Goñi wrote for the Conversation France, the virus causing cases of severe pneumonia in Wuhan was identified within seven days of the official announcement on 31 December, and, three days after that, the gene sequence was available. HIV, by contrast, took two years to identify after it first appeared in mid-1981, López-Goni noted. We also know the virus is natural, that it is related to a virus found in bats, and that it can mutate, but does not appear to do so very often.

2) By 13 January – three days after the gene sequence was published – a reliable test was available, developed by scientists at the department of virology at Berlin’s Charité university hospital with help from experts in Rotterdam, London and Hong Kong.

3) China’s draconian quarantine and containment measures appear to be working. On Thursday 120 new cases were reported in Wuhan, the lowest figure for six weeks, and, for the first time since the start of the outbreak, none at all in the rest of Hubei province. Several Chinese provinces have had no new cases for a fortnight and more are reopening their schools. In many countries, infections are in defined clusters, which should allow them to be more readily contained.

4) Frequent, careful hand washing, as we now all know, is the most effective way to stop the virus being transmitted, while a solution of ethanol, a solution of ethanol, a solution of hydrogen peroxide or a solution of bleach will disinfect surfaces. To be considered at high risk of catching the coronavirus you need to live with, or have direct physical contact with, someone infected, be coughed or sneezed on by them (or pick up a used tissue), or be in face-to-face contact, within two metres, for more than 15 minutes. We’re not talking about passing someone in the street.

5) Only 3% of cases concern people under 20, children seem barely affected by the virus at all, and the mortality rate for the under-40s is about 0.2%. The rate rises in the over-65s, reaching nearly 15% in the over-80s, especially those with pre-existing heart or lung conditions. Calculating mortality rates during an ongoing epidemic is hard because it is not clear how many mild or asymptomatic cases have been tested for, but the best estimate we have for the coronavirus so far is 1.4% – somewhere between 1918 Spanish flu and 2009 swine flu.

6) So, don't panic, breathe and stop freaking out.

7) So, don't panic, breathe and stop freaking out.

8) By mid-February, more than 80 clinical trials were under way for antiviral treatments, according to Nature magazine, and most have already been used successfully in treating other illnesses. Drugs such as remdesivir (Ebola, Sars), chloroquine (malaria), lopinavir and ritonavir (HIV), and baricitinib (rheumatoid polyarthritis) are all being trialled on patients who have contracted the coronavirus, some as a result of the application of artificial intelligence.

9) Yes, overcrowded Singapore, which has very few cases and very little spread of the virus. The same is true throughout Southeast Asia, where no reported cases have been diagnosed, and in Mexico, where there are a mere six reported cases as of this writing.

Sorry, friend, but those of us who have followed the many nuances of this thing from the beginning tend to side, not with the fake news media, but with the medical doctors: 

The truth is the truth no matter who reports it. Unfortunately in the USA, news outlets such as CNN and NYT had their credibility destroyed because of their political bias. However, at least the NYT, which I follow, does a good job at reporting on this issue. I get information directly from sources using Twitter, having cultivated a set of contacts for two months already. I understand why some people will distrust the mass media, as they will inevitably try to find a political angle. But using mere common sense anyone can see that the response in the USA has been botched at both the local level on the East and West coasts (democrats) and at the federal level (republicans). Mediocrity has no political affiliation.

In some of your responses you implicitly recommend that we follow what China has done, for they have been able to contain this pestilence, as Cardinal Burke called it. Yet Angela Merkel just stated that, in Germany, about 60% of the people will get it, and Gov. Inslee in Washington State is predicting that, at the current course, about 120 thousand people will have been infected with this virus in a few weeks.

It is effeminate to accept this pestilence without putting up a manly fight, which on one dimension consists of a strong public health response, supported by citizens, and on the other, deeper and more efficacious prayer; I was expecting the Pope to be leading this, in conjunction with all the faithful, but its "lights out" at the Vatican, coupled with a confused and divided laity.

Stay confessed. That covers all the bases, whether coronavirus, zika, terrorism, car crash. Vaccine poisoning. Gulag. The list goes on.

Much of the problem is about how contagious it is and how far it will spread. There have been estimates of 40 to 80% of the population of the United States getting it. If say 50% gets it, and only 2% die of it -- that would be something like 330,000,000 times .50 is 165,000,000 cases times .02 is 3,300,000 dead. Way worse than the annual flu. IF it spreads that badly. If it really doesn't spread that badly -- it's either a hoax or it's something much worse that takes longer than we know (can't trust Chinese numbers) to develop.

What about seeing the reality: Wuhan. 10 million people, 5500 deaths. That is 0,055%. Seems closer to the rate that was published in the first stages of the Panic, that the mortality is much lower than with common flu.

This whole scenario reminds me more of Serling's

"The Monsters Are Due on Maple Street", one of his best stories.

At the end, it is the "Masonic/Demonic" (my interpretation) handlers that have the last word.

That would make it more dangerous - being used as a weapon.

The world won't end, but hundreds if thousands of Americans will die before the end of the year from COVID-19. Don't believe me? Print this comment along with the above article and keep it in a drawer.

Many believe the world will end - as we know it - it has been slowing coming to that for many years.

A couple of weeks ago, it was "millions"; now it's "hundred of thousands". In two weeks, it should be down to tens of thousands, in which case we've got ourselves another normal flu season on our hands.