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Biswapriya Purkayast , Lurk, Steve, Per/Norway, Red Ryder , Clueless Joe, karlof1 , David G, Jackrabbit , occupatio, Perimetr , Likklemore, Brendan
The way to Erdo's heart is through his wallet. The only way to make Erdo behave is to squeeze his bank account till it screams.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Feb 3 2020 17:39 utc | 1
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https://mobile.twitter.com/ynms79797979/status/1224372815517945857
Observing that Erdogan is currently in Ukraine, one commenter adds:
Indeed, begging Putin to do him a favor - immediately after cowtowing to the Ukrofascists by remarking that the Krim belongs to Kiev - could be considered less than tactical. Should we henceforth be calling him Errorgan?
Treacherous snake Erdogan should be careful not to make the wrong moves in this situation. All the observation points and military columns he introduced into Idlib are sitting ducks to the Syrian airforces. Russia will deny the Turkish airforce access to Syrian airspace.
If he escalates to directly attacking Russian forces on a more than "oops, accident" scale, he will have to eat a lot of tomatoes. Maybe he can heat his palace with tomatoes, or else beg for Israeli gas...
Posted by: Lurk | Feb 3 2020 18:07 utc | 3
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Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is a mad man, and I think Russia knows it. Only a sledge hammer hit could pacify him.
Posted by: Steve | Feb 3 2020 18:13 utc | 4
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erdogan brought Crimea into it too,, "the full integrity" of the ukraine blah blah blah..
He is clearly desperate, a desperate muslim brotherhood terror regime will not bring anything good i fear.
Posted by: Per/Norway | Feb 3 2020 18:22 utc | 5
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'b', as always, good information. Thank you.
Erdogan risks two major blows to his regime. A flood of refugees and tens of thousands of murderous al Nusra and Uyghur fighters who are and have been on his payroll and logistics support. He feeds and tends to them medically. It is impossible for him to integrate these killers and their clans in Turkish society.
The second blow, a conflict at arms with Russia, which will lead to a contraction of his economy that will destabilize his society.
As he extends his reach against Israel and Greece in the East Mediterranean for gas resources and pushes to establish a foothold in Libya, he stretches his military into arenas he cannot sustain. This isn't Cyprus he's pushing around. Russia and Putin have shown that they can touch pressure points of the US, Israel and others much tougher than Turkey. And with Russia will be Egypt and Iran and UAE.
Only Qatar, the bank for Muslim Brotherhood terrorism, stands with Erdogan.
The wannabe Emperor of his imaginary Ottoman Empire has everything to lose and nothing to gain. Myopia is not a strategic weapon.
If he is foolish enough to turn fire on Russian MPs or Special Forces in Aleppo and Idlib, his retreat will be with those 300+ armored vehicles in shreds, on fire and bloodied to the bone.
Posted by: Red Ryder | Feb 3 2020 18:22 utc | 6
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Erdogan really went to Kiev to claim Crimea for Ukraine? He'd be lucky if Putin doesn't call for going back to the Treaty of Sevres' borders, giving back territories to Armenia and Greece.
Posted by: Clueless Joe | Feb 3 2020 18:25 utc | 7
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Canthama reports:
"So much for the turkish arrogance and whining.
"As anticipated early tioday, the 25th brought get news to the world, smashed al Qaeda west of Saraqib, cut the M4 and liberated several town, al Nayrab, Tam, and al Tarnaba.
"The turkish military forces that early today was burping khara, had to pack its tail and stick between their legs and run…forrest run from western Saraqib or fall prisoners to the SAA.
"The SAA is now 1 village to Idlib, it is in the western urban side of Saraqib and one village to Ariha…and its is in the outskirt of the infamous brick factory, a place where in 2015 the turkish backed al Qaeda used to break the defenses line toward Ariha."
Twitter reports Erdogan trying to phone Putin but he's not picking up the phone. The Turks pledged themselves to specific chores in Idlib and accomplished none. They're now suffering the consequences. It's possible that Erdogan's massively overt support for the terrorists will finally cost him politically. IMO, time is not on his side.
Latest Situation map for Saraqib. It will soon be enveloped from the West. Bigger map of immediate region that shows how close Idlib city is to Saraqib. Cutting M-4 kept Turks from establishing more CPs.
Otherwise, there's currently a lull in reports.
Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 3 2020 18:34 utc | 8
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Erdogan is incorrigible.
If the patina of inviolability is falling away from the Turkish “observer” troops in Idlib, then just sending in a few hundred more with their vehicles is not going to rescue the Turkish and jihadi position, while giving the SAA some new targets. If Turkey is going to turn this into a military confrontation, it better have a military plan, or else its soldiers could get into serious trouble.
Posted by: David G | Feb 3 2020 18:45 utc | 9
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One wonders if the U.S. has convinced Turkey to act in Idleb ...
One wonders why there wasn't more skepticism of the "Erdogan is turning East" meme. Erdogan's Islamist orientation makes a true partnership with Russia uncertain at best.
What will Erdogan do now? Will he raise the stakes to support his beloved head-choppers?
!!
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Feb 3 2020 18:59 utc | 11
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I'm confused about Erdogan's end goal for intervening in Syria. On one hand, he is doing the bidding of the US by fighting with the Syrian govt; on the other hand, he wants to suppress the Kurds, who are backed by the US. Those two things seem to be at cross purposes.
Also, he's pissing off Russia by towing the NATO line about Crimea, while wanting to buy Russia's S-400's in the face of US threats. That's not playing both sides for leverage, but just a confused and befuddled foreign policy stance.
Question: if the Syrian govt retakes all the occupied territories, would that result in the Kurds being pressed out of Syria and across Turkey's border, or would that mean the Kurds find accommodation with the Syrian govt and therefore continue to be a thorn on Turkey's side?
Posted by: occupatio | Feb 3 2020 19:05 utc | 13
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Re: Red Ryder | Feb 3 2020 18:22 utc | 6
"My"opia is not a strategic weapon."
Brilliant, LOL. thanks, I intend to use that
Posted by: Perimetr | Feb 3 2020 19:12 utc | 14
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@ JR 11
One wonders if the U.S. has convinced Turkey to act in Idleb ...
One wonders why there wasn't more skepticism of the "Erdogan is turning East" meme. Erdogan's Islamist orientation makes a true partnership with Russia uncertain at best.
Perhaps Erdo is returning a favour.....doing a little mischief in Syria for the orange one.
Quid pro quo; it's what's on the Menu - or Let's make a Deal.
this is what the senator said: Re-read very slowly what this is about.
Trump Eases Pressure on Turkey's Halkbank as Favour to Erdogan - Senator
Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 3 2020 19:23 utc | 17
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The Russian military suggests that it was Turkey's own fault for being attacked because it did not coordinate with Russia:
"Turkish units were relocated inside the Idlib de-escalation area on the night from February 2 to February 3 without notifying the Russian side and came under fire opened by Syrian government forces at terrorists west of Serakab".
Erdogan does not realise he's a minor player compared to Russia and he cannot behave as if Idlib is a Turkish province.
Posted by: Brendan | Feb 3 2020 19:23 utc | 18
Nobody can quite figure out what this Erdogan guy wants. He does not seem to be a particularly smart person, but he seems aware that Turkey is in a geo-politically important location and being a member of NATO, will not come under NATO aggression.
It is difficult to know what if any are his strategic objectives, and he seems to be all over the place causing mischief. In a sense, he is very much like Trump - unpredictable and generally stupid in his actions.
This latest nonsense in Syria is not likely to help him either in the long or medium term, and I cannot even see any short-term advantage to the man.