Syria - Turkey's Bluff Is Called - Media Opposition Sources Run By British Intelligence

Author: 

psychohistorian Jackrabbit ,  james, Laguerre 

Date: 
Sunday, February 23, 2020 - 01:00
Article link: 

Thanks for the continued coverage of the ME b.

Erdogan is bringing the end of empire's control over the ME to a climax. These steps need to be taken and hopefully there will be little bloodshed in the process.

After Turkey comes Occupied Palestine/Syria which will bring much more weeping and gnashing of teeth.

Onward!!!

 

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 19 2020 16:13 utc | 1

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If his 'bluff' was called, wouldn't it have made sense for Erdogan to de-escalate? He could've just kept quiet or dragged out the talks.

His "wild rhetoric" will only underscore how weak he is ... unless he's actually serious.

Erdogan has always struck me as devious but careful. He's also a committed Islamist with a soft spot for Jihadi headchoppers. So I'm going to wait and see if this wild rhetoric makes for a spectacular face-plant or if he backs his wild rhetoric with wild actions.

In any case, I'm gonna need more popcorn.

!!

 

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Feb 19 2020 16:17 utc | 2

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thanks b... i was reading this morning that erdogan had said yesterday "Turkey will not allow the Syrian government to take control of the province." and an ongoing threat-> "he was prepared to launch a military offensive in Idlib at any moment." now i read in your post " we will confront those who limit our history to only 90yrs."
the guy is completely bonkers and out of touch with reality.

so sad to see how the usa-uk and canada have worked so hard at funding an opposition that consists of the very same terrorist groups these same countries are opposed to.. what a depraved group these ex military intel people are if these unverified sources are correct.. i am guessing they are the ones that convinced the gov't of the need for this?

it seems like it is never over for syria and the syrian people.. all the evils of world power are concentrated in the same place with an agenda that is pure evil..

Posted by: james | Feb 19 2020 16:18 utc | 3

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Where are the million reported now supposed to have come from?

Presumably from the surplus of refugees who fled to Idlib from other parts of Syria, when they were retaken, in those infamous bus convoys for example. There's a lot more than the 1.5 million native population there now. But I quite agree that a million is a vast exaggeration. There's people moving, but also others staying put.

 

 

Posted by: Laguerre | Feb 19 2020 16:23 utc | 4

 

 


Great article, thanks b

I sincerely hopes Erdogan sees sense and pulls back. No one wants to see a lot of Turkish soldiers going home in body bags. Maybe there will be another military coup against him if the military top-brass are interested in their own survival? They know they will lose to a hardened Syrian Army and Russia.

 

Posted by: James McC | Feb 19 2020 16:26 utc | 5

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it seems like it is never over for syria and the syrian people.. all the evils of world power are concentrated in the same place with an agenda that is pure evil..

 

Posted by: james | Feb 19 2020 16:18 utc | 3

We're in the endgame, aren't we? There's not much more left to happen, unless someone makes a massive intervention, and we've agreed that's not going to be Erdogan, in spite of all his bluster.

 

Putin dictated his conditions, and Erdogan doesn't like them, but I suspect he doesn't have much choice. The key condition being the 16km strip along the border - the intention must be for Erdogan to be able to avoid taking in more refugees and keeping them on the Syrian side, including the fleeing jihadis. There'll be an amnesty for civilians, I guess, to allow them to go home.

 

Posted by: Laguerre | Feb 19 2020 16:34 utc | 7

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Erdo's been talking to Trump. The initial Idlib Dawn operation was called off because Trump along with Erdo threatened to attack SAA.
If Erdo is crazy enough to say something like this -Turkey cannot be confined within the 780,000 km2 border. #Misrata, #Aleppo, #Homs & #Hasaka are outside our actual borders, but they are within our emotional & physical limits, we will confront those who limit our history to only 90yrs." - then he's just as likely to kick of a war with Syria, more so if he has Trump's backing.
I doubt Erdogan is bluffing. He's gambling on Russia standing aside when the shooting starts, as did the US. His rhetoric was the same prior to the attack on northeast Syria.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 16:41 utc | 8

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I think that he plans to start an operation and try to provoke an attack on Turkish soil by the Syrian Army. He can have Turkish artillery, from inside Turkey, firing all over the place till Syria fires back. Then he can invoke Article 5 against Syria, not Russia. Not for any Turkish loses inside Syria, but for the attack on Turkish soil (even if it is a counter attack).

He already consulted with Trump and I think he believes that he could muster enough NATO support to force Russia abandoning Syria, at least in Idlib and drag Putin back at the table in more favorative terms.

How it will really play out though, is another matter. The problem is that if he thinks he can pull this out, he will probably try it.

 

Posted by: Erlindur | Feb 19 2020 16:45 utc | 9

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yeah.. i am not convinced he is bluffing either... i want to believe he is, but i am not convinced.. the guy is completely bonkers... a complete loon..

 

Posted by: james | Feb 19 2020 16:49 utc | 10

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Another point, from what I have read on pro Erdogan twitter accounts, if he doesn't live up to his rhetoric on Idlib, he will lose domestically. Lot of hatred for Syria, Iran and Russia amongst his support base.

 

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 16:51 utc | 11

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Another point, from what I have read on pro Erdogan twitter accounts, if he doesn't live up to his rhetoric on Idlib, he will lose domestically. Lot of hatred for Syria, Iran and Russia amongst his support base.

 

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 16:51 utc | 11

If I were Erdogan (and as megalomaniac as he is), I'd still be hesitating before attacking the Russians. Attacking the Russians is a big thing, when you don't have other support behind you. It's saying: my chances of survival in power are no longer great, better to go down in glory (a sort of political version of suicide by cop). Putin will have laid down the law to him. The logical position - one no doubt being heavily advised by the Turkish generals - is to seek a way of sliding out of war against Russia, much like Netanyahu slid out of attacking Iran in 2018 after all the threats.

 

Posted by: Laguerre | Feb 19 2020 17:05 utc | 14

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It really is crazy. Does Erdogan want Russia to stop delivery of the S-400? To halt work on the Akkuyu Nuclear power plant (4 reactors, $25B). Stop gas flows through the Turkstream pipeline? How could he make all these deals with Russia and not realize that Russia will not allow him to carve off a piece of Syria?

 

Posted by: SteveK9 | Feb 19 2020 17:06 utc | 15

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I doubt Erdogan wants AQ terrorists fleeing to Turkey, so in one sense moving troops to secure the border makes sense. What does one do with pets one no longer needs? Even Erdogan has to realize that no amount of Turkish troops will stop the ultimate defeat of the AQ project as a military power in Syria. They can certainly move to cell-based terrorism and cause a lot of problems, but they can't rule territory like they used to. If Erdogan were truly crafty, I could see him barring AQ from moving north and encouraging it to move eastward to fight the Kurds for territory. In that way, he could rid himself of his AQ pets while taking out some of his greatest enemy, the Kurds--and blaming the whole thing on the Kurds.

However, when it comes to fighting against Russian forces, I have to say that Erdogan is 99% bluffing. His economy was nearly destroyed just from shooting down one jet plane, and he's not dumb enough to send his country on an economic spiral that would surely result in more coup attempts against him.

 

Posted by: worldblee | Feb 19 2020 17:07 utc | 16

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The U.S. is in a no-lose situation--"Let's you & him fight". America will continue to try to push the playground swing and pump it upwards and upwards. The Clinton-faction politicians and their generals have also been itching to have an excuse to start a "limited" hot war with Russia for four years now. Either scenario--Turkey backed behind the scenes, or up front with U.S. power--will be very bad news. Russia must make it clear that attempts to dissolve the United Nations charter by annexing land by force would destroy the rule of law, and will be met with appropriate actions.

 

Posted by: Imagine | Feb 19 2020 17:08 utc | 17

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Tiresome! There will be no NATO intervention in Syria. Twice already they have pulled their impotent missile strikes...they wont risk that fiasco again. No boots on the ground. No planes in Syrian controlled airspace to be shot down. No options left except propaganda and aiding the terrorist proxies....Turkey is about to get spanked if they don't cool their jets.

Posted by: nemo | Feb 19 2020 17:23 utc | 19

Own comment: 

Goodness knows what Erdogan has in mind with his Idlib escalation. The man seems to have lost his mind, and is losing everywhere, what with some of his supplies to Libya recently reportedly having been blown up, and his Islamist militias in Syria being overrun.

Let us hope  that his advisors - if he has any - talk some sense into him or else this could turn really ugly really fast!

Nobody knows what Erdogan has in plan, and an intervention in Syria would not suit him even politically since he is almost certain to lose. However, I am with james:

 

yeah.. i am not convinced he is bluffing either... i want to believe he is, but i am not convinced.. the guy is completely bonkers... a complete loon..