All

With Bergoglio's complicity, the apostate Grech defies God's laws and dreams of a "rainbow" church

4Christum - Tue, 03/26/2024 - 17:14

 

Gloria TV News

Cardinal Mario Grech, head of Francis' ex-synod, envisions a "rainbow" Church, not defined by what he calls "uniformity of thought" [= one Faith].




He told the Swiss daily CdT.ch (21 March) about the African response to Francis' blasphemy blessing: "When we speak of unity, of communion, we do not mean uniformity of thought."

According to Grech there is "unity in differences" (sic), whereas in the real world differences are always a challenge to unity. He claims that "there are commonalities and different spaces for different experiences, according to 'place'". This implies that what is true on the first floor is false on the second. This corresponds to how a liar understands "truth".

Personally, Grech imagines the Church "as a rainbow", in which the colours do not exclude each other, but create harmony together.




He is reinventing the [collapsing] Anglican Communion, i.e. an umbrella organisation without faith and doctrine which exchanges Catholicism for a pletora of sects.

This is the question that Grech must answer: For what reason should his colourful sects remain under the same umbrella?

Does Grech hope that the most decadent sect will eventually infect the others, so that decadence will become their common ground?








Cardinal Müller slams synodal ‘ideology’ trying to turn the Church into an ‘NGO’

Categories: All, Lay, Traditional

Journalists from ASEAN countries create a network to expose corruption

AsiaNews.it - Tue, 03/26/2024 - 17:11
Launched a few days ago in Manila, Journalists Against Corruption brings together professionals from major Southeast Asian media. With the exception of Singapore, the region is regularly at the bottom of world rankings.
Categories: All, Asia, News

Zelensky Fires Security Chief As Defense Shake-Up Continues

Zero Hedge - Tue, 03/26/2024 - 17:05
Zelensky Fires Security Chief As Defense Shake-Up Continues

In an apparent continuing shake-up of his defense leadership, Ukraine's President Zelensky has fired the the head of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council (SNBO), Oleksiy Danilov.

A decree confirming his removal was published to the Ukrainian presidency's official website, however, it provided no reason or explanation for the decision. Danilov had been installed in the top national security office in October 2019.

Oleksiy Danilov, via Moscow Times

The Kyiv correspondent for the Financial Times, Christopher Miller, has also confirmed the high level removal...

"Another big and expected shakeup in Kyiv. Zelensky has dismissed Oleksiy Danilov from the post of head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council and replaced him with Oleksandr Lytvynenko, who has been serving at Chief of the Foreign Intelligence Service," writes Miller.

This is but the latest in a major shake-up of top defense ranks which began in early February. At that time Ukraine's top general and commander of the armed forces, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, was booted out despite his widely reported popularity among military ranks.

Zelensky had said at the time that it is "time for renewal" at a moment Western press began to increasingly acknowledge that Ukraine forces are being beaten by the greater manpower and artillery of the Russian military machine.

President Biden too has long acknowledged Ukraine is in "dire straights", also after Zelensky has struggled to attract more weaponry, and amid war weary Western publics, and European nations which have seen their own stockpiles greatly diminished.

Ironically this was Danilov's last tweet... As Putin gets re-elected to office the longtime Ukraine national security chief gets sacked.

Likely it is too late for any major turn-around for Kiev forces, though the Zelensky administration has lately been teasing the potential for a large new military mobilization of hundreds of thousands, which is sure to be hugely unpopular and controversial among the Ukrainian population. Officials have indicated the military needs some 300,000 to 500,000 more men just to hold the front lines and stave off Russian advance.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/26/2024 - 12:05
Categories: All, Non-Catholic, Political

Who Really Works Against the Public?

Mises Institute - Tue, 03/26/2024 - 17:00
“The public be damned” is a statement by railroad magnate William Henry Vanderbilt that has been twisted out of context. While the American ruling classes insist that private enterprise is the enemy of the people, it really is our government that bears that distinction.

Rate-Cut Signals Bolster Buy-And-Hold Strategies

Zero Hedge - Tue, 03/26/2024 - 16:45
Rate-Cut Signals Bolster Buy-And-Hold Strategies

By Michael Miska, Bloomberg Markets Reporter and strategist

Stock market optimism is at full throttle after central banks’ rate-cut reassurances, leaving investors with no reason to sell and bears with little to do but await catalysts that might derail this rally.

The Federal Reserve’s signal that three interest-rate cuts are still on the cards for this year has just propelled Europe’s Stoxx 600 index to its ninth straight week of gains, the longest winning streak in 12 years. While the Stoxx and its blue-chip counterpart the Euro Stoxx 50 may look a tad overbought, there is no real sign of the excesses that would trigger technical red flags.

“The Fed delivered the best possible speech for equities,” DayByDay technical analyst Valerie Gastaldy says. Short-and-long trends are still bullish, implying that most bad news will be quickly overcome and new highs will be scaled, she adds. “No method can beat the buy-and-hold in those periods.”

While it may seem like markets are overheating, in fact less than 30% of Stoxx 600 constituents currently look overbought, below the threshold that has signaled exuberance over the past 10 years.

That leaves scope for further gains, especially after last week’s central bank green light. The Bank of England’s meeting outcome gave traders confidence that policy-easing could start June, the same month as the European Central Bank. Switzerland has already made its move. And the Fed indicated it’s willing to look past strong economic data that had raised the prospect of a further rate-cut delay.

That’s a “Fed put” in play, for Barclays strategist Emmanuel Cau. “The Fed communication clearly suggests it wants to cut rates, which tilts the risk-reward positively for risk markets,” Cau says. “History shows that when central banks’ cuts come without a recession ensuing, like in 1995, it typically puts us into a ‘mid-cycle’ situation: the economic cycle tends to get extended as growth is stimulated by the cuts.”

Which is not to say markets are not vulnerable to short-term setbacks. For one, elevated positioning of systematic strategies could be seen as a contrarian indicator. Volatility skew at ultra-low levels suggests there is no appetite for hedging, in itself a potential risk. Current bull/bear and call-to-put option premiums, together with low intraday correlations, hint at abnormally optimistic sentiment, bordering on complacency, according to UBS strategists led by Andrew Garthwaite.

“Our aggregate tactical indicators are extreme and at levels where the market normally falls modestly,” Garthwaite says, citing the most overbought areas, such as construction materials and capital goods, as likely the most vulnerable. Yet according to the UBS model, there is only a small chance of a retracement greater than 5%. “We don’t see this as being a major correction,” he adds.

Given the amount of time that’s passed without a market pullback, the likelihood of a “down week” soon looks pretty high, reckons Carl Dooley, the head of EMEA trading at TD Cowen. But while agreeing that some warning signals are flashing, Dooley expects bears to remain on the backfoot. The reason? “Zooming out, I think shorting a new all-time high continues to be the more dangerous play,” he says.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/26/2024 - 11:45
Categories: All, Non-Catholic, Political

March 26 - The Age of Masonic Jewish Overreach

Henrymakow.com - Tue, 03/26/2024 - 16:33


overreach.jpeg
(Antisemitism is anti-Satanism) 

In the past four years, the Satanists have overreached in three ways which guarantee their ultimate downfall.

1. Rebranding the seasonal flu as a pandemic and poisioning millions with gene therapy disguised as "vaccines."

2. Provoking the Russian invasion of Ukraine resulting in the humiliation and defeat of NATO.

3. Staging the Oct 7 Hamas false flag attack resulting in the genocide of over 32,000 people in Gaza.
This has turned Israel into an international pariah. 

Hopefully this overreach will result in the defeat of globalism and the nationalization of central banks.

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For the first time in history, the US defies Israel

Abstention Lets UN Gaza Ceasefire Resolution Be Passed without reference to Hostage Release


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Satanyahu has melt down; cancels delegation's US visit after ceasefire vote


Peeved US did not obey his order to veto resolution

A high-level mission was due to travel to Washington to discuss planned Israeli military operation in southern Gaza city of Rafah


Cabalist Streetwalkers walking both sides of the street (Commie-Zionist)

White House spokesman John Kirby also called the cancellation of the Israeli delegation's visit "disappointing" and said that Washington was "perplexed by this" because the US abstention "does not represent a shift in our policy." 

The US still supports Israel and is providing weapons systems and other capabilities for the country to defend itself, Kirby added.

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KOSHER200-netanyahu-genocide.jpg
Blaming UN vote, Israel pulls negotiators from Qatar after Hamas rejects truce deal

Prime Minister's Office points to 'damage' caused by Security Council resolution, as Gaza terror group digs in on demands Israel calls 'delusional'


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Ex israeli PM Ehud Barack says Satanyahu Funded Hamas  


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Violent protests against Satanyahu in Israel


Israelis demand new elections



Massive protests around the World
Amman

London 

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Issues Dire Warning Over CBDC Adoption

The 2024 presidential candidate said transactional freedom is absolutely critical for freedom of speech to exist.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/robert-f-kennedy-jr-issues-dire-warning-on-cbdc-adoption-5613970?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge

RFK is talking about things that matter and I think he will win. Trump is a reality show actor. he has no genuine convictions. Why are people ready to forgive him for COVID and vaccines. He is a mass murderer!!!!
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14547244_031824-kgo-robert-f-kennedy-nicole-shanahan-split-img.jpg
RFK Jr Picks Nicole Shanahan As VP, May Seek Libertarian Nomination


Is this an error in judgment? She is Sergei Brin's Ex. Obviously this was bought. 


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Alex Newman--Congress Betrays America by Passing $1.2 Trillion Spending Bill

The bill includes $300 million for Ukraine, funding to fight climate change, a 5.2% pay increase for gov. employees, and further funding for the unconstitutional Department of Education.



"Of course, no one had time to read the bill, which gives $300 million to Ukraine, funds the climate hoax, enables LGBTQ organizations in schools to indoctrinate children and promote surgical mutilation, empowers the Department of Education, gives government employees a 5.2% raise, approves 12,000 additional visas for Afghan evacuees, and much more.

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This attack was carried out by radical Islamists," Putin said in the opening remarks of a video call with law enforcement officials. 

The US and its allies are now trying to cover for their proxies in Kiev, insisting that Ukraine had nothing to do with the terrorist attack and that the party responsible was Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS), the Russian president noted.

"But we know who carried out the attack. We want to know who ordered it."


These are the radical Islamist in Mossad-CIA's payroll.  The rest (Hamas etc) are on Russia's side
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dei-didnt-earn.jpg
(Diversity, Equality, Inclusiveness)

The Moscow Concert Hall Attack May Have Been A Staged Event




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William Makis MD--PEDOPHILES, Child sex abusers and Child pornographers - exposing Canada's Healthcare Leaders - Part 1 - Pedophiles at Alberta Health Services and Alberta & BC Governments



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Yemen's Houthis say they attacked six ships in Gulf of Aden, Red Sea


Houthis said on Tuesday that they had mounted six attacks on ships with drones and missiles in the last 72 hours in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.

The Houthis attacked the Maersk Saratoga, APL Detroit, Huang Pu, and Pretty Lady after identifying them as either US or British, according to a statement from the group's military spokesperson Yahya Sarea.

Sarea added that the group also attacked two US destroyers in the Red Sea as well as Israel's city of Eilat.

It was not immediately clear which, if any, of the targets were struck by the drones or missiles.

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Trudeau government 'gaslighting' critics of Online Harms Act, legal expert warns
Dr. Michael Geist pointed out that Bill C-63 gives a digital safety commission an astonishing array of powers with limited oversight.

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assange23.jpg
BREAKING: London Court Rules in Favor of Assange's Extradition Challenge


The U.S. Justice Department had reportedly been considering whether to allow Assange to plead guilty to a reduced charge of mishandling classified information. However, the London court's decision to uphold Assange's right to challenge extradition marks a significant development in the case.
--


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Without Extensive Narrative Manipulation, Gaza Would Not Be Consented To.

One hundred and seventy days of attacks in Gaza where up to today 70,000 tons of explosives have been dropped resulting in 32,226 being murdered. Among them were 14,280 children, 9,340 women, 74,518 injured and maimed, with another 7,800 people still missing. 27 children have died of hunger and 17,000 are now orphaned. 32 hospitals have been bombed as well as 53 health institutions, and 364 medical staff killed and tens of thousands more are facing imminent death. This has been horrific to see, for those who could only watch in real time, helplessly for those 170 days but for civilian families in Gaza this is hell on earth that we could only barely imagine.


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bortnikov.jpeg
US, Britain, Ukraine behind Crocus City Hall attack -- FSB chief
Alexander Bortnikov believes that Ukraine has been trying to prove it is capable enough


"What is it expected to do to demonstrate its capability? It is expected to carry out sabotage and terrorist acts in the rear. This is what both the chiefs of Ukraine's special services and the British special services are aiming at. US special services have repeatedly mentioned this, too," he said.

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Categories: All, Conspiracies, History

Catholic schools committed to promoting peace in Mindanao

AsiaNews.it - Tue, 03/26/2024 - 16:02
Representatives of the Catholic Educational Association of the Philippines visited Christian schools in Zamboanga. Students are offered outreach and community service programmes to empower people to live with the region's painful past.
Categories: All, Asia, News

India Suspends Venezuela Oil Purchases Fearing U.S. Sanctions Return, Stops Accepting Russian Oil Tankers

Zero Hedge - Tue, 03/26/2024 - 15:35
India Suspends Venezuela Oil Purchases Fearing U.S. Sanctions Return, Stops Accepting Russian Oil Tankers

Is India starting to get cold feet about breaching US sanctions?

On Tuesday, Indian state and private refiners suspended purchases of crude from Venezuela as the U.S. sanctions waiver on Venezuela’s oil exports expires on April 18 and could lead to complications if not renewed, Bloomberg reported citing sources familiar.

As OilPrice adds, private refiner Reliance Industries, which is India’s largest buyer of Venezuelan crude grade Merey, looks to avoid complications with cargoes if the U.S. were to re-impose the sanctions that were temporarily lifted for six months in the middle of October 2023. As the deadline for the waiver expiry nears, state refiner Indian Oil Corporation has also halted buying Venezuelan crude.

At the end of last year, the U.S. introduced a temporary sanctions relief from October 2023 to April 2024, which now allows the production, lifting, sale, and exportation of oil or gas from Venezuela, and the provision of related goods and services, as well as payment of invoices for goods or services related to oil or gas sector operations in Venezuela.

As a result, the top international oil trading houses are back in the business of trading with oil from Venezuela, and refiners in India returned at the end of last year to the market of purchasing Venezuela’s crude.

In December, India resumed imports of crude oil from Venezuela for the first purchases since 2020 after the U.S. lifted most of the sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry in October.

For India, the world’s third-largest crude oil importer, Venezuelan oil is welcome as some refineries are designed to process the South American country’s heavy crude. The biggest refiners, including Reliance Industries, Indian Oil Corporation, and HPCL-Mittal Energy started securing crude cargoes from Venezuela as soon as the sanctions were lifted temporarily in October.  

Most refiners have resumed the purchases via intermediaries, sources familiar with the development told Reuters at the time. Reliance is also looking to discuss direct sales with Venezuela’s state-owned oil firm PDVSA, according to Reuters’ sources.  

It's not just Venezuela, however: last week Bloomberg also reported that all of India's oil refineries have stopped accepting Russian crude oil delivered by tankers operated by Sovcomflot, Russia’s largest commercial shipping company that has been sanctioned by the US, potentially dealing a blow to Moscow’s economy as India is one of the largest importers of its fossil fuels since the start of the Ukraine war.

According to the report, private and state-run processors including the biggest - Indian Oil - have stopped taking cargoes if they’re on Sovcomflot tankers, as refiners scrutinize the ownership of each ship to make sure they’re not affiliated with the company, or other sanctioned groups.

About 1.5 million barrels of Urals crude were shipped so far on Sovcomflot vessels in March, down from 4.4 million barrels in January and 4.7 million barrels in February.

India has been a major buyer of Russian oil since the invasion of Ukraine, but tighter enforcement of US sanctions has disrupted the trade and led to refiners seeking more expensive crude from other regions such as the US. Sovcomflot said this week that the penalties were putting pressure on its operations.

The Sovcomflot issue means there are fewer tankers to deliver Russian crude, which has led to discounts for the nation’s oil narrowing to compensate for higher freight costs. Of course, the end result of this supply congestion will be higher oil prices which is precisely the opposite of what Biden needs with elections looming, so we would not be surprise if Venezuela's sanctions are indefinitely postponed while the White House quietly backchannels with India to advise them that Russian oil remains perfectly eligible for under the table purchases.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/26/2024 - 10:35
Categories: All, Non-Catholic, Political

Long Volatility Trade May Be A Widow-Maker No More

Zero Hedge - Tue, 03/26/2024 - 15:15
Long Volatility Trade May Be A Widow-Maker No More

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

An unusual combination of divergences in the stock-market volatility space suggests the VIX is at elevated risk of pricing higher, and this may even happen with rising rather than falling equity prices. Volatility of volatility is near 10-year lows making call options on the VIX cheap.

Buying the VIX is the quintessential widow-maker trade. It is rare for the gauge to rise, with most of such instances over the last 20 years episodic and occurring when the market was falling. Most of the time, the market rises and volatility falls - there is an entire sub-industry devoted to exploiting and perpetuating this, which has swollen further in size in recent years with the boom in zero-days-to-expiry (0DTE) trading.

Not only is the VIX near its post-pandemic lows, it has also never been more out of step with cross-asset volatility – FX, fixed-income and credit (which is saying something as FX and credit vol are themselves near historic lows).

Markets are interlinked: rates impact stock valuations, high-yield credit sits just above equity in the capital structure, and so on. The question is how long can equity volatility remain the relative outlier?

There’s always a risk of becoming the next widow, but there are enough factors in play to suggest a heightened risk of a rise in the VIX.

Three trends suggest that a turning point in equity volatility is near:

  1. Divergence between the VIX and skew structure;

  2. Implied and realized correlation nearing their effective lower bound; and

  3. Stresses in state-by-state US unemployment.

The market has become increasingly bullish in recent months, especially so after making new highs. That’s led to leveraged market chasing – call buying – and reduced hedging activity, i.e. less put buying. The rally chasing spurred some truly epic moves in the call skew of certain sectors. The metals and mining and staples sectors saw the biggest rises in their call skews, with both hitting series highs.

However, since 2020, it’s the relationship between call and put skew that’s tracked the VIX almost perfectly, with the index typically falling when call skew is outpacing put skew. In other words, when there is more leveraged activity in calls relative to puts, the VIX tends to be repressed (the VIX is a weighted-average of implied volatility in the S&P across all strikes).

Now, though, put skew is outperforming call skew. As the chart above shows, that typically coincides with a rising VIX.

At the same time, the realized and implied correlation of the S&P is very depressed. Realized correlation is close to going below 10%, a level it rarely breaches, and when it does it is typically followed by a sharp move higher. Moreover, implied correlation - so called as it is implied from the Markowitz portfolio model - has never been lower.

Correlation is being driven lower by the dominance of the largest stocks and by dispersion selling. The latter involves selling volatility on the index versus buying vol on individual stocks. As the Magnificent Seven - or whatever your favored cohort of AI-related stocks is - drive higher, the dispersion selling has the effect of pinning the index. The biggest stocks go up, while the rest are impaired by how much they can move, pushing correlation down.

In theory, index correlation could go negative, but it has never happened. The reason is that stocks are not completely random and are driven by common macro-based factors, such as interest rates. Correlation is thus so low today that it can only really go one way, and when it does, history shows the move is likely to be abrupt. Something has to give.

It’s not only the market sounding a warning about stock-market vol, but the economy too. A fairly reliable indication of rising equity volatility has been when we see a number of US states experiencing stress in their employment markets at the same time.

The chart below shows the percentage of US states whose unemployment rate is higher over the past year. As we can see, while increases in equity vol don’t always coincide with rising state unemployment, almost all the spikes higher in the percentage of states experiencing worsening unemployment coincide with episodes of higher VIX.

Today is - so far, along with the mid 1990s - an outlier, with more than half of US states seeing rising unemployment while the VIX remains near its lows.

There is a proviso here. The household survey, from which the unemployment rate is derived, may be under-reporting employment growth due to underestimating immigration. A recent Brookings paper suggests that the household survey is using too low an estimate for the civilian population, which could well explain its divergence from the establishment survey (payrolls). It might also bias state unemployment rates too high if estimates of the size of the workforce are too low.

Nonetheless, this measure bears close scrutiny, especially in confluence with the endogenous market-based signs of higher equity vol mentioned above.

Being long volatility is rarely comfortable. Given the structure of the market, the path of least resistance is down. This also means the volatility curve is typically steep – as it is today – meaning an investor wears negative carry to hold the position. One way to mitigate this is through call options on the VIX. These are relatively cheap, with the VVIX – the vol of vol – near 10-year lows.

The reflex is to expect higher equity vol to come with lower stock prices. But the two had a positive correlation for much of the second half of the 1990s. The current backdrop of still-supportive liquidity, a non-recessionary economy and investor call buying could lead to a situation of rising volatility and higher equity prices. That might make long volatility trades a less likely money-losing proposition.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/26/2024 - 10:15
Categories: All, Non-Catholic, Political

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Slides, Revised Down For 5th Straight Month

Zero Hedge - Tue, 03/26/2024 - 15:11
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Slides, Revised Down For 5th Straight Month

After declining in February, analysts expected a small rebound in The Conference Board's consumer confidence print in March, but instead it dropped further to 104.7 (vs 107.0 exp) from 106.7 as expectations plunged but current conditions improved...

Source: Bloomberg

However, for the 5th straight month, the conference board's headline confidence print was revised downward...

Source: Bloomberg

That is 13pts of 'confidence' erased in the last five months... to which we ask again - ...how do you revise consumer confidence?

The Conference Board's indicator inflation expectations rebounded modestly to +5.3% - still notably high but trend in the right direction...

Source: Bloomberg

The Board's labor market indicator trended modestly weaker (after being revised higher)....

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, expectations for stocks to increase from here are at their highest since Jan 2018...

Source: Bloomberg

...that did not end well for stocks.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/26/2024 - 10:11
Categories: All, Non-Catholic, Political

Macron’s Psycho-Play to Keep Aloft the Punctured Balloon of a ‘Geo-Political EU’

Ron Paul Institute - Featured Articles - Tue, 03/26/2024 - 15:07

Charles Michel, the European Council President, has called on Europe to switch to a “war economy.” He justifies this call partly as urgent support for Ukraine, but more pertinently, as the need for relaunching the (beached) European economy by focussing on the defence industry.

Calls ring out across Europe: ”We are in a pre-war era,” Polish PM Donald Tusk says. Macron, after mooting the possibility ambiguously several times, says, “Maybe at some point – I don’t want it – we will have to have operations [French troops in Ukraine], on the ground, to counter the Russian forces.”

What has spooked the Europeans so? We know the French Intelligence briefing reaching Macron in recent days was dire; it seems to have triggered his initial sally into direct French military intervention in Ukraine. French classified Intelligence warned that the collapse of the Contact Line, and the disintegration of the AFU as a functioning military force, might be imminent.

Macron played coy: Might he send troops? At one time seemingly “yes”; but then frustratingly the prospect was uncertain, yet still possibly on the table. Confusion reigned. Nobody knew for sure, as the President is nothing if not volatile, and General De Gaulle bequeathed to his successors, quasi-regal powers. So yes, constitutionally he could do it.

The general view in Europe was that Macron was playing complex mind-games, firstly with the French people, and secondly with Russia. Nevertheless, it seems that there could be some substance to Macron’s sabre-rattling: The French Chief of Army Staff said he has 20,000 troops ready to be inserted in 30 days. And the Head of Russia’s SVR Intelligence Agency, Naryshkin, more modestly assessed that France seemingly is preparing a military contingent for sending to Ukraine, which at the initial stage, will be about two thousand people.

Just to be clear however, even a 20,000-man division by standards of classical military theory is supposed to be able to hold at maximum, a 10km-front. An insertion of two or twenty thousand French troops would change nothing strategically; it would not halt the vastly larger Russian steamroller, grinding on westwards. So what is Macron playing at?

Is this all bluff, then?

Likely, it is part “grandstanding” by Macron, pre-occupied to present himself as “Mr Strongman Europe” – particularly toward his French constituency.

His posturing comes however, at a more significant conjunction of events for the so-called “Geo-political EU”:

Clarity: Light has pierced, and has illuminated a space hitherto occupied by shadows. It is now as clear as it can be – after Putin’s overwhelming win in elections on a record turnout – that President Putin is here to stay. All the western shadow-play of “régime change” in Moscow simply shrunk to naught in the bright light of events.

Snorts of anger can be heard from some quarters in Europe. Yet they will subside. There is no choice. The reality, as Marianne newspaper, quoting a senior French officer, derisively noting in respect to Macron’s Ukraine’s posturing: “We must make no mistake, facing the Russians; we are an army of cheerleaders” and sending French troops to the Ukrainian front would simply be “not reasonable.”

At the Élysée, an unnamed advisor argued that Macron “wanted to send a strong signal … (in) milli-metered and calibrated words.”

What pains the EU “neocon ever-hopefuls” more is that Putin’s clear electoral victory coincides, almost precisely, with an EU (and NATO) humiliation in Ukraine. It is not just that the AFU appears to be in a cascading implosion, but that the retreat is accelerating, as Ukraine tries to retreat into unprepared and near indefensible terrain.

Into this grim EU prospect is that second shaft of clarifying light: The US is slowly but surely turning its back on the financing and arming of Kiev, leaving Europe’s impotence exposed for all the world to see.

The EU simply cannot substitute for the US pivot. Yet more hurtful for some is that a US retreat represents a “punch in the guts” for much of the Brussels leadership, who had fallen on the Biden Administration with almost indecent glee, upon Trump’s leaving of office. They used the moment to proclaim the cementing of a pro-Atlanticist, pro-NATO EU.

Now, as former Indian diplomat MK Bhadrakumar perfectly defines it, “France [is] all dressed up – with nowhere to go”:

Ever since its ignominious defeat in the Napoleonic wars, France is entrapped in the predicament of countries that get sandwiched between great powers. Following World War II, France addressed this predicament by forging an axis with Germany in Europe.

Caught up in a similar predicament, Britain adapted itself to a subaltern role tapping into the American power globally but France never gave up its quest to regain glory as a global power. And it continues to be a work in progress.

The angst in the French mind is understandable as the five centuries of western dominance of the world order is drawing to a close. This predicament condemns France to a diplomacy that is constantly in a state of suspended animation, interspersed with sudden bouts of activism.

The problems here for the exalted aspiration for the EU qua global power are three-fold: Firstly, the Franco-German Axis has dissolved, as Germany swerved towards the US as its new foreign-policy dogma. Secondly, France’s clout is diminished further in European affairs as Scholtz has embraced Poland (not France) as its like-minded, “best friend forever”; and thirdly, Macron’s personal relations with Chancellor Scholz are on a dive.

The other plane to the EU geo-political project is that the embrace of Washington’s financial wars on Russia and China has resulted in “the US has dramatically outgrowing the EU and the United Kingdom combined – over the last 15 years. In 2008, the EU’s economy was somewhat larger than America’s … America’s economy is now however, nearly one-third bigger. [And] it is more than 50 per cent larger than the EU without the UK.”

In other words, being America’s ally, in its ill-judged Ukraine-proxy war, has – and is – costing Europe dearly. Eurointelligence reports that a survey amongst small and medium-sized companies in Germany has registered an extreme shift in sentiment against the EU. Of the sample of 1,000 small and medium sized companies, 90% were unhappy with the EU to varying degrees, driving many to re-locate from Europe to the US

Put plainly, the effort to inflate and hold aloft the notion of a “geo-political Europe” is ending in débacle. Living standards are sinking and Brussel’s regulatory promiscuity and high energy costs are resulting in the de-industrialisation and impoverishment of Europe.

Macron, in a blunt interview in late 2019 with The Economist magazine, declared that Europe stood on “the edge of a precipice” and needed to start thinking of itself strategically as a geo-political power, lest we will “no longer be in control of our destiny.” (Macron’s remark preceded the war in Ukraine by 3 years).

Today, Macron’s fears are reality.

So, to turn to what the EU plans to do about this crisis, EC President Michel says he wants to buy twice as many weapons from European producers by 2030; to use the profits from Russian frozen assets to finance weapons purchases for Ukraine; to facilitate financial access for the European defence industry, including by issuing a European defence bond and getting the European Investment Bank to add defence purposes to its lending criteria.

Michel sells it to the public as a way to create jobs and growth. In reality, however, the EU is looking to create a new slush fund to replace the QE purchases by the ECB of EU states’ sovereign bonds, which the interest rate spike in the US effectively killed.

The defence industry ploy is a means to create more cash flows: The EU’s various mooted “transitions” (Climate, Greening, and Tech) clearly required mammoth money-printing. This was just about manageable when the project could be financed at zero cost interest rates. Now the EU states’ debt explosion to fund the pandemic and “transitions” threatens to take the entire geo-political “revolution” into financial crisis. There is a financing crisis underway.

Defence, Michael hopes, may be saleable to the public as the new “transition” to be financed by unorthodox means. Wolfgang Münchau at EuroIntellignce however, writes on “Michel’s rosy war economy” – that he wants a geo-political Europe, and so concludes his letter with the familiar cold war adage – that “if you want peace you need to prepare for war”.”

Are those weapons in Michel’s war economy to speak for our failures in diplomacy? What is our historic contribution to this conflict? Should we not start from there?

The language Michel uses is dramatic and dangerous. Some of our older citizens still remember what it means to live in a war economy. Michel’s loose talk is disrespectful.

Eurointelligence is not alone in its criticism. Macron’s gambit has divided Europe, with a majority firmly opposed to inserting troops into Ukraine – sleep-walking into war. Marianne’s editor Natacha Polony has written:

It is no longer about Emmanuel Macron or his postures as a virile little leader. It is no longer even about France or its weakening by blind and irresponsible élites. It is a question of whether we will collectively agree to sleepwalk into war. A war that no one can claim will be controlled or contained. It’s a question of whether we agree to send our children to die because the United States insisted on setting up bases on Russia’s borders.

The bigger question concerns the whole “Von der Leyen-Macron” geo-political gambit of the EU needing to think of itself as a geo-political power. It is the pursuit of this geo-political “chimaera” (in no little part, an ego-project) that paradoxically, has brought the EU exactly to the brink of crisis.

Do a majority of Europeans truly wish to be a geo-political power, if that requires relinquishing what remains of their national sovereignty and autonomy (and parliamentary oversight) to the supra-national plane; to the Brussels technocrats? Maybe Europeans are content for the EU to remain as a trade bloc.

So why is Macron nonetheless doing this? No one is sure, but it seems that he imagines he is playing some complicated game of psycho-deterrence with Moscow – one characterised by radical ambiguity.

His is just another psy-ops, in other words.

It is possible nonetheless, that he thinks his ambiguous on/off threat of an European deployment into Ukraine might just give Kiev enough negotiating “leverage” to bluff Russia into agreeing to “rump Ukraine” remaining in the western (and even NATO) sphere, in which case Macron will claim have been Ukraine’s “saviour.”

If this is the case, it is pie in the sky. President Putin, armed with his recent electoral victory, simply swept Macron’s psy-op off the table: “Any insertion of French troops would be ‘invaders’ and a legitimate target for our forces,” Putin made explicit.

Reprinted with permission from Strategic Culture Foundation.

Categories: All, Political

Between Kabul and Islamabad, the hot border of terrorism

AsiaNews.it - Tue, 03/26/2024 - 15:07
Pakistan has sent a delegation to Afghanistan to facilitate trade between the two countries, but diplomatic relations remain strained, according to analyst Riccardo Valle, co-founder of the Khorasan Diary, a platform for journalists, researchers, and academics. Attacks by the Pakistani Taliban continue to be a thorn for Islamabad. Meanwhile, Afghanistan is grappling with the Afghan branch of the Islamic State.
Categories: All, Asia, News

Peaceful Transfer of Power Update!

Steyn Online - Tue, 03/26/2024 - 15:00
Programming note: Please join me tomorrow, Wednesday, for another midweeek Clubland Q&A, when I'll be taking questions from Mark Steyn Club members live around the planet. As always, I'm happy to address whatever's on your mind. However, because North
Categories: All, Journalists, Non-Catholic

Saving Democracy From Itself: The Democratic National Committee Moves To Block Third Party Candidates

Ron Paul Institute - Featured Articles - Tue, 03/26/2024 - 14:47

Below is my column in the New York Post on a reported plan of the Democratic National Committee and allied groups to try to block third-party candidates from the 2024 ballot. The contradiction is stunning as these groups raise money to “save democracy” by limiting democratic choice.

Here is the column:

The last time that the Chicago Democratic Convention was held in Chicago in 1968, the resulting riots led to one of the greatest Freudian slips in American politics. Mayor Richard Daley declared “the policeman isn’t there to create disorder; the policeman is there to preserve disorder.”

The Democratic National Committee has now added its own gem: the Democratic Party is not here to preserve democracy, it is here to prevent democracy.

That’s because the DNC is seeking to block third party candidates from ballots — Robert Kennedy Jr., Cornell West, and Jill Stein. All three are liberal and are considered a threat to Joe Biden.

This effort will likely include any ticket put forward by the No Labels group, seeking a moderate alternative to the two parties.

Mary Beth Cahill, the former interim DNC CEO, and long-time DNC staffer Ramsey Reid  will lead this effort. According to media reports, former Buttigieg campaign aide to Lis Smith will lead the effort with another Buttigieg alumni, Matt Corridoni. This effort includes not just a public campaign against Kennedy and Stein as spoilers, but “legal action” to solve the problem by denying voters a choice.

The media does not appear at all alarmed or critical of the effort to limit democratic choice. The Washington Post stated clinically “Democrats are taking third-party threats seriously this time.” Taking it seriously appears to mean using legal means to keep them from the ballots.

It is true that the main political parties have challenged qualification signatures and paperwork in the past. However, the reports indicate a systemic effort geared toward reducing the choices for voters. What is striking is that this is coming from democratic groups and the DNC, which are raising money on the “save democracy” narrative.

The contradiction is spellbinding. On the same sites promising to oppose the third party candidates, the DNC and other groups push the narrative that only the Democrats are working to protect the right to vote.

The Post reports that Democrats have studied the Hillary Clinton campaign and vowed not to allow third party candidates to drain away millions of voters as they did in 2016. Of course, the comparison is particularly telling because in both 2016 and 2024, the DNC had the least popular Democratic candidates. Polls showed that Clinton was the worst possible candidate for the party, but the Clintons had control over the DNC and state party organizations.

Of particular concern is the fact that Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan by only 67,000 votes. In just those states, Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Stein received more than half a million votes.

Rather than actually pick a candidate that most citizens want, the DNC wants to replay the 2016 strategy of forcing the choice between two evils in a Biden-Trump choice. That can only work reliably if there is no other choice for citizens tired of the duopoly and the political (and media) establishment. So Kennedy, Cornell, and Stein just have to go.

I am one of those misguided voters. Years ago, I wrote a column saying that I was tired of voting for the lesser of two evils — leaving every election as a moral hazard. I am prepared to vote for candidates from the two main parties in any given election, but I will only vote for the candidate who I believe is the best of candidates to be president. We are played as chumps by a political and media establishment in every election system. Over two decades ago, I pledged to vote for the best candidate, even if they are with a third party.

The DNC is reportedly to be joined in this effort by a well-financed array of groups including the liberal think tank Third Way (which has filed complaints with secretaries of states); American Bridge (a Democratic opposition operation), and Clear Choice (a super PAC composed of “allies of President Biden”).

While these groups work to limit the choice of voters, the effort continues in Florida, Georgia, Washington, and New York to keep Trump in court until the election, including a possible trial running up to or even through the election.

There is hope that this multi-front effort will be the winning ticket, particularly if the ultimate ticket denies voters any other choice.

The open discussion of these efforts in the media illustrates the contempt for voters, who need to be protected from their bad choices. I have previously compared the underlying assumptions to a type of electoral Big Gulp law. Before they were also struck down, these laws sought to take away the dietary choices of citizens because they were making the wrong choice in the view of experts.

Now activists are now big gulping the election. Voters cannot be trusted with something as important as democracy.

President Biden has said “make no mistake: Democracy is on the ballot for all of us.” Of course, he could end this effort by denouncing further ballot cleansing (something he refused to do when Trump was removed by the Colorado and Maine ballots). It appears that the last thing that democracy needs is free democratic choice.

Reprinted with permission from JonathanTurley.org.

Categories: All, Political

With The Tip Credit Falling, Full-Service D.C. Restaurants Cut 3,700 Jobs

Zero Hedge - Tue, 03/26/2024 - 14:45
With The Tip Credit Falling, Full-Service D.C. Restaurants Cut 3,700 Jobs

By Peter Romeo of Restaurant Business Online

Full-service restaurants in Washington, D.C., have cut 3,700 jobs - about 12% of their workforce - since the jurisdiction began rolling back its tip credit in May 2023, according to data newly released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The federal agency did not draw a correlation between the drop in jobs and the reduction in the credit, which fell in May and then again in July of last year. Restaurants there have also been affected by a slow return of government workers and employees of companies that interact with the government to their downtown offices. Operators say traffic has also been dampened by fears about rising nighttime crime.

But restaurants without table service have not cut jobs nearly as aggressively as their full-service counterparts have. Between May 1 of last year and the end of January 24, limited-service places have eliminated 400 positions, or just 1.7% of their collective payrolls.

In addition, downtown offices were even emptier during the corresponding eight months of a year earlier, yet full-service places added 1,200 positions during that timeframe, an increase in their workforce of 4.5%, according to the BLS’ numbers.

Industry advocates say the numbers underscore the damage that has been done to the local restaurant market by the ongoing phase-out of the tip credit.

“In just seven months, the city’s full-service restaurant employment has been gutted by the change,” Sean Kennedy, EVP of public affairs for the National Restaurant Association, said in a statement. “Higher labor costs mean higher menu prices. That means diners are eating out less and tipping less, which in turn means less income for servers and operators.”

The data comes to light as opponents of the tip credit are pushing to eliminate the employer concession in a number of other states, including Illinois, New York, Massachusetts and Ohio.

The efforts there are being led by One Fair Wage, the labor advocacy group that was a major force behind the tip credit’s phase-out in Washington. The group, which receives funding from the Service Employees International Union, argues that tipping is an abomination that routinely exposes servers and other tipped employees to sexual harassment and other types of abuse. It contends that workers can’t push back against the abusers without risking the loss of tip income.

The District’s tip credit was set on a sunset course by local voters’ approval of a referendum on the November 2022 ballot. The measure called for the credit to be dropped in stages until it hits zero in July 2027, meaning servers, bartenders and other tipped employees will receive the same direct wage as their non-tipped colleagues as of that date.

Until May 1 of last year, restaurants were obliged to pay servers and other regularly tipped employees just $5.35 an hour if tips brought their income up to $16.10. The $10.75 that came from gratuities was the tip credit.

The direct payment required of a tipped worker’s employer rose to $6 an hour in May and $8 in June, and will rise to $10 on July 1 of this year.

With more of tipped employees’ income coming directly from their employers, many full-service restaurants in the Districts have tried to preserve margins by adding surcharges to their bills as well as by raising prices. According to the Employment Policies Institute, 70% of local sit-down establishments either have already tacked on service fees or plan to do so as the tip credit ebbs.

All told, 96% of full-service places in the District have raised prices since the rollback of the credit began last year, according to the Restaurant Association of Metropolitan Washington (RAMW). It pegged the average increase at 16%.

The trade group also found last winter that labor costs for restaurants in the District had risen by a mean of 25%.

The use of service fees has become so routine in the District that the City Council recently set regulations for how the surcharges can be levied. Among other things, the guidelines specify that restaurants can assess no more than 20% of a patron’s bill as a surcharge.

The package of concessions also included a measure intended to bring down liquor-liability insurance rates as an offset to the local drop in restaurant revenues.

Areas outside the District still allow restaurants to use a tip credit, though labor advocates in Maryland and Virginia have tried to kill the convention there.  According to the RAMW, about 32% of Washingtonians are now dining more often in those states, which lie just outside the capital’s borders.

As of last November, restaurants within Washington were closing at the rate of roughly one per week, the RAMW said at the time.

“What we’re learning from the D.C. experience is that eliminating the tip credit will only reduce income, choices, and opportunities,” said the NRA’s Kennedy.

He called the elimination of the tip credit “a lose-lose-lose for any community.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/26/2024 - 09:45
Categories: All, Non-Catholic, Political

The French Road to Nuclear War

Ron Paul Institute - Featured Articles - Tue, 03/26/2024 - 14:35

March 24, 2024

ALERT MEMORANDUM FOR: The President

FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity

SUBJECT: On the Brink of Nuclear War

Mr. President:

France is reportedly preparing to dispatch a force of some 2,000 troops — roughly a reinforced brigade built around an armored battalion and two mechanized battalions, with supporting logistical, engineering, and artillery troops attached — into Ukraine sometime in the not-so-distant future.

This force is purely symbolic, inasmuch as it would have zero survivability in a modern high-intensity conflict of the scope and scale of what is transpiring in Ukraine today. It would not be deployed directly in a conflict zone, but would serve either as

(1) a screening force/tripwire to stop Russia’s advance; or

(2) a replacement force deployed to a non-active zone to free up Ukrainian soldiers for combat duty. The French Brigade reportedly will be supplemented by smaller units from the Baltic states.

This would be introducing combat troops of a NATO country into a theater of war, making them “lawful targets” under the Law of War.

Such units would apparently lack a NATO mandate. In Russia’s view, however, this may be a distinction without a difference. France appears to be betting – naively – that its membership in NATO would prevent Russia from attacking French troops. Rather, it is highly likely that Russia would attack any French/Baltic contingent in Ukraine and quickly destroy/degrade its combat viability.

In that case, French President Macron may calculate that, after Russian attacks on the troops of NATO members – NATO mandate or not – he could invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter and get the NATO alliance to intervene. Such intervention would likely take the form of aircraft operating from NATO nations – and perhaps include interdiction missions against tactical targets inside Russia. 

On Precipice of Nuclear War?

Doctrinally, and by legal right, Russia’s response would be to launch retaliatory strikes also against targets in NATO countries. If NATO then attacks strategic targets inside Russia, at that point Russia’s nuclear doctrine takes over, and NATO decision-making centers would be hit with nuclear weapons.

We do not believe Russia will initiate a nuclear attack against the U.S., but rather would leave it up to the United States to decide if it wants to risk destruction by preparing to launch a nuclear strike on Russia. That said, Russian strategic forces have improved to the point that, in some areas – hypersonic missiles, for example – its capability surpasses that of the U.S. and NATO.

In other words, the Russian temptation to strike first may be a bit stronger than during past crises, and we are somewhat less confident that Russia would want to “go second”.

Another disquieting factor is that the Russians are likely to believe that Macron’s folly has the tacit approval of some key U.S. and other Western officials, who seem desperate to find some way to alter the trajectory of the war in Ukraine – the more so, as elections draw near.

What Needs to Be Done

Europe needs to understand that France is leading it down a path of inevitable self-destruction.

The American people need to understand that Europe is leading them to the cusp of nuclear annihilation.

Since Russian leaders may suspect that Macron is working hand in glove with Washington, the U.S. needs to make its position publicly and unambiguously clear.

And if France and the Baltics insist on sending troops into Ukraine, it must also be made clear that such action has no NATO mandate; that Article 5 will not be triggered by any Russian retaliation; and that the U.S. nuclear arsenal, including those nuclear weapons that are part of the NATO deterrent force, will not be employed as a result of any Russian military action against French or Baltic troops.

Void of such clarity, France would be leading the American people down a path toward a nuclear conflict decidedly not in the interests of the American people – or of humanity itself.

FOR THE STEERING GROUP,

VETERAN INTELLIGENCE PROFESSIONALS FOR SANITY

  • William Binney, former Technical Director, World Geopolitical & Military Analysis, NSA; co-founder, SIGINT Automation Research Center (ret.)
  • Richard Black, former Virginia State Senator; Colonel, USA (ret.); Former Chief, Criminal Law Division, Judge Advocate General (associate VIPS)
  • Marshall Carter-Tripp, Foreign Service Officer (ret) and former Office Director in the State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research
  • Bogdan Dzakovic, former Team Leader of Federal Air Marshals and Red Team, FAA Security, (ret.) (associate VIPS)
  • Graham E. Fuller, Vice-Chair, National Intelligence Council (ret.)
  • Philip Giraldi, C.I.A., Operations Officer (ret.)
  • Matthew Hoh, former Capt., USMC, Iraq and Foreign Service Officer, Afghanistan (associate VIPS)
  • James George Jatras, former U.S. diplomat and former foreign policy adviser to Senate leadership (Associate VIPS)
  • Larry C. Johnson, former C.I.A. and State Department Counter Terrorism officer
  • John Kiriakou, former C.I.A. Counterterrorism Officer and former senior investigator, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
  • Karen Kwiatkowski, former Lt. Col., U.S. Air Force (ret.), at Office of Secretary of Defense watching the manufacture of lies on Iraq, 2001-2003
  • Douglas Macgregor, Colonel, USA (ret.) (associate VIPS)
  • Ray McGovern, former U.S. Army infantry/intelligence officer & C.I.A. analyst; C.I.A. Presidential briefer (ret.)
  • Elizabeth Murray, former Deputy National Intelligence Officer for the Near East, National Intelligence Council & C.I.A. political analyst (ret.)
  • Todd E. Pierce, MAJ, U.S. Army Judge Advocate (ret.)
  • Pedro Israel Orta, former C.I.A. and Intelligence Community (Inspector General) officer
  • Scott Ritter, former MAJ, USMC; former U.N. Weapons Inspector, Iraq
  • Coleen Rowley, FBI Special Agent and former Minneapolis Division Legal Counsel (ret.)
  • Lawrence Wilkerson, Colonel USA, ret.), Distinguished Visiting Professor, College of William and Mary (associate VIPS)
  • Sarah G. Wilton, CDR, USNR, (ret.); Defense Intelligence Agency (ret.)
  • Kirk Wiebe, former Senior Analyst, SIGINT Automation Research Center, NSA
  • Robert Wing, former Foreign Service Officer (associate VIPS)
  • Ann Wright, retired U.S. Army reserve colonel and former U.S. diplomat who resigned in 2003 in opposition to the Iraq War

Background: Earlier VIPS Memos for President Biden on Ukraine

May 1, 2022

MEMORANDUM FOR: The President
FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
SUBJECT: Nuclear Weapons Cannot Be Un-invented, Thus …

“The growing possibility that nuclear weapons might be used, as hostilities in Ukraine continue to escalate, merits your full attention.” 

++++++++++++++++++++++

Sept. 5, 2022

MEMORANDUM FOR: The President
FROM: VIPS
SUBJECT: Ukraine Decision Time & Secretary of Defense

“If Austin tells you Kyiv is beating back the Russians, kick the tires”

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Jan. 26, 2023

ALERT MEMORANDUM FOR: The President
FROM: VIPS
SUBJECT: Leopards to Ukraine: Decisions in an Intelligence Vacuum

“None of the newly promised weaponry will stop Russia from defeating what’s left of the Ukrainian army. If you have been told otherwise, replace your intelligence and military advisers with competent professionals – the sooner the better.”

“There is a large conceptual – and exceptionally dangerous – disconnect. Simply stated, it is not possible to “win the war against Russia” AND avoid WWIII. It is downright scary that Defense Secretary Austin may think it possible. In any case, the Kremlin has to assume he thinks so. It is a very dangerous delusion.”

++++++++++++++++++++++++

January 25, 2024

ALERT MEMORANDUM FOR: The President

FROM: VIPS

SUBJECT: Throwing Good Money After Bad

“On Jan. 26, 2023, we reminded you that National Intelligence Director Avril Haines had said Russia was using up ammunition extraordinarily quickly and could not indigenously produce what it was expending.”

“On July 13, you said Putin “has already lost the war”. You may have gotten that from C.I.A. Director William Burns who, a week before, wrote an op-ed in The Washington Post saying: “Putin’s war has already been a strategic failure for Russia – its military weaknesses laid bare.” Both statements are incorrect. Nor is the war a “stalemate”, as Jake Sullivan has claimed more recently.”

Categories: All, Political

Apple Shares Fall On Chinese Report That iPhone Shipments Plunged 33%  

Zero Hedge - Tue, 03/26/2024 - 14:25
Apple Shares Fall On Chinese Report That iPhone Shipments Plunged 33%  

Apple shares fell in premarket trading in New York after official Chinese data showed iPhone shipments plunged 33% in February, compared with the same month last year, in the world's second-largest economy—or the world's largest smartphone market. These institutional desks, BarclaysPiper Sandlerand Jefferies, first warned of this downturn in iPhone sales in early January.  

Bloomberg cites Academy of Information and Communications Technology figures that show foreign smartphone makers only shipped 2.4 million smartphones last month. Apple was a majority of these shipments. This decline marks the second consecutive month of lower shipments. 

According to the data, Apple shipped 5.5 million units in January, or about 39% fewer handsets than in the prior year. 

"Apple's retail channels in China are still digesting the shipment from the fourth quarter of 2023, which could explain the drop in recent months," Nicole Peng, an analyst at Canalys, wrote in a note. 

Peng continued:

"But it's a sign of a slowing trend for the upcoming months for Apple in China, especially when the Chinese peers are driving very aggressively the AI smartphone messages."

Shares of Apple fell slightly on the report. 

Nasdaq futures reversed overnight gains. 

Bloomberg pointed out, "The overall Chinese smartphone market also contracted by almost a third in February, illustrating a wider consumer reluctance to spend on discretionary items." 

At the start of the year, Barclays analyst Tim Long slashed Apple from "Equal-Weight" to "Underweight" with a slight downshift in price target, from $161 to $160, based on the thesis of a slowdown in iPhone and MacBook sales.  

Piper Sandler analysts led by Harsh Kumar also downgraded Apple from "Overweight" to "Neutral" with a price target of $205, down from $220 in early January—the reason: deteriorating outlook for iPhone sales and macro weakness.

And Jeffries analyst Edison Lee also outlined months ago about the iPhone sales slump in China. 

Apple also faces rising competitive pressures from domestic brands, such as Huawei, spurred by "patriotic fervor" amid the tech war with the US. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/26/2024 - 09:25
Categories: All, Non-Catholic, Political

Technical Measures And Valuations - Does Any Of It Matter?

Zero Hedge - Tue, 03/26/2024 - 14:15
Technical Measures And Valuations - Does Any Of It Matter?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Technical measures and valuations all suggest the market is expensive, overbought, and exuberant. However, none of it seems to matter as investors pile into equities to chase risk assets higher. A recent BofA report shows that the increase in risk appetite has been the largest since March 2021.

Of course, as prices increase faster than underlying earnings growth, valuations also increase. However, as discussed in “Valuations Suggest Caution,” valuations are a better measure of psychology in the short term. To wit:

“Valuation metrics are just that – a measure of current valuation. More importantly, when valuation metrics are excessive, it is a better measure of ‘investor psychology’ and the manifestation of the ‘greater fool theory.’ As shown, there is a high correlation between our composite consumer confidence index and trailing 1-year S&P 500 valuations.”

When investors are exuberant and willing to overpay for future earnings growth, valuations increase. The increase in valuations, also known as “multiple expansion,” is a crucial support for bull markets. As shown, the increase in multiples coincides with rising markets. Of course, the opposite, known as “multiple contractions,” is also true. With a current Shiller CAPE valuation multiple of 34x earnings, such suggests that investor confidence is elevated.

As noted, valuations are terrible market timing indicators and should not be used for such. While valuations provide the basis for calculating future returns, technical measures are more critical for managing near-term portfolio risk.

Technical Measures Are Getting Extreme

As noted, investors are again becoming exuberant over stock ownership. Such is vital to creating multiple expansions and fueling bull market advances. High valuations, bullish sentiment, and leverage are meaningless if the underlying equities are not owned. As discussed in Household Equity Allocations,” the current levels of household equity ownership have reverted to near-record levels. Historically, such exuberance has been the mark of more important market cycle peaks.

While household equity ownership is critical to expanding the bull market, the technical measures provide an understanding of when excesses are reached. One measure we focus on is the deviation of price from long-term means. The reason is that markets are bound to long-term means over time. For a “mean” or “average” to exist, prices must trade above and below that price over time. Therefore, we can determine when deviations are approaching more extreme levels by viewing past deviations. Currently, the deviation of the market from its underlying 2-year average is one of the largest in history. Notably, there have certainly been more significant deviations in the past, suggesting the current deviation from the mean can grow further. However, such deviations have crucially been a precursor to an eventual mean-reverting event.

The following analysis uses quarter data and evaluates the market using valuation and technical measures. From a long-term perspective, the market is trading at more extreme levels. The quarterly Relative Strength (RSI) measure is above 70, the deviation is close to a historical record, and the market trades nearly 3 standard deviations above its quarterly mean. As noted, while these valuation and technical measures can undoubtedly become more extreme, the ingredients for an eventual mean reverting event are present.

Of course, the inherent problem with long-term analysis is that while valuations and long-term technical measures are more extreme, they can remain that way for much longer than logic suggests. However, we can construct a valuation and technical measures model using the data above. As shown, the model triggered a “risk off” warning in early 2022 when high valuations collided with an extreme deviation of the market above the 24-month moving average. That signal was reversed in January 2023, as the market began to recover. While a new signal has not yet been triggered, the ingredients of valuations and deviations are present.

The Ingredients Are Missing A Catalyst

The problem with long-term technical measures and valuations is that they move slowly. Therefore, the general assumption is that if high valuations do not lead to an immediate market correction, the measure is flawed.

In the short term, “valuations” have little relevance to what positions you should buy or sell. It is only momentum, the direction of the price, that matters. Managing money, either “professionally” or “individually,” is a complicated process over the long term. It seems exceedingly easy in the short term, particularly amid a speculative mania. However, as with every bull market, a strongly advancing market forgives investors’ many investing mistakes. The ensuing bear market reveals them in the most brutal and unforgiving of outcomes. 

There is a clear advantage to providing risk management to portfolios over time. The problem is that most individuals cannot manage their own money because of “short-termism.” As shown by shrinking holding periods.

While “short-termism” currently dominates the investor mindset, the ingredients for a reversion exist. However, that does not mean one will happen tomorrow, next month, or even this year.

Think about it this way. If I gave you a bunch of ingredients such as nitrogen, glycerol, sand, and shell, you would probably stick them in the garbage and think nothing of it. They are innocuous ingredients and pose little real danger by themselves. However, you make dynamite using a process to combine and bind them. However, even dynamite is safe as long as it is stored properly. Only when dynamite comes into contact with the appropriate catalyst does it become a problem. 

“Mean reverting events,” bear markets, and financial crises result from a combined set of ingredients to which a catalyst ignites. Looking back through history, we find similar elements every time.

Like dynamite, the individual ingredients are relatively harmless but dangerous when combined.

Leverage + Valuations + Psychology + Ownership + Momentum = “Mean Reverting Event”

Importantly, this particular formula remains supportive of higher asset prices in the short term. Of course, the more prices rise, the more optimistic investors become.

While the combination of ingredients is dangerous, they remain “inert” until exposed to the right catalyst.

What causes the next “liquidation cycle” is currently unknown. It is always an unexpected, exogenous event that triggers a “rush for the exits.”

Many believe that “bear markets” are now a relic of the past, given the massive support provided by Central Banks. Maybe that is the case. However, remembering that such beliefs were always present before more severe mean-reverting events is worth remembering.

To quote Irving Fisher in 1929, “Stocks are at a permanently high plateau.” 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/26/2024 - 09:15
Categories: All, Non-Catholic, Political

Saint Dismas: the Good Thief -- by Roberto de Mattei

Rorate Caeli - Tue, 03/26/2024 - 14:11
Saint Dismas the Good Thief The Church's Latin liturgy remembers on March 25 Saint Dismas, the Good Thief, to whom Jesus said on Calvary, "Today you will be with me in Paradise." The choice of March 25 is not accidental. This date is not only that of the Annunciation and Incarnation of the Word but according to an ancient tradition it is also the day on which the Savior of Humanity consummated New Catholichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04118576661605931910noreply@blogger.com
Categories: All, Lay, Traditional

US Home Prices Rose For 12th Straight Month In January, Despite Soaring Rates

Zero Hedge - Tue, 03/26/2024 - 14:04
US Home Prices Rose For 12th Straight Month In January, Despite Soaring Rates

Home prices in America's 20 largest cities rose for the 12th straight month in January (the latest data released by S&P Global Case-Shiller today), up 0.14% MoM (less than the 0.2% exp)

Source: Bloomberg

That pushed the YoY price up to +6.59% (in line with the +6.60% exp).

"Our National Composite rose by 6% in January, the fastest annual rate since 2022." According to Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

"For the second consecutive month, all cities reported increases in annual prices, with San Diego surging 11.2%"

Given the smoothing and heavy lag in the Case-Shiller data, it's hard to find a causal relationship between prices and mortgage rates, but with rates remaining above 7%, it seems hard to believe prices can continue their advance...

Source: Bloomberg

...and we just saw median new home prices tumble (though median existing home prices did increase).

How is Powell going to cut rates when home prices are rising at over 6% per year?

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/26/2024 - 09:04
Categories: All, Non-Catholic, Political

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